AI-generated summary
· Application · 04/30/2024
NS Power files 2024 ten-year load forecast projecting modest 0.2% average annual energy growth through 2034, driven by heat pump electrification, EV adoption, and new customers offset by solar, DSM, and Renewable-to-Retail migration.
AI summary
- The 2024 Load Forecast covers 2024–2034 and projects Net System Requirement (NSR) growing from 11,490 GWh to 11,695 GWh at an average annual rate of just 0.2%, while system peak demand grows faster at 1.4% annually from 2,365 MW to 2,727 MW, driven primarily by electrification of space heating and EV adoption.
- A major methodological update revised residential heat pump heating intensity upward by approximately 39% relative to the 2023 forecast, after analysis identified large unexplained winter variances in 2022 and 2023 actuals; the update incorporated the E3 "hybrid" heating scenario aligned with the Evergreen IRP, which assumes dual-fuel systems retain non-electric backup heat on the coldest days, reducing long-term peak growth by an estimated 68 MW by 2034.
- The EV forecast was significantly reduced—from 285,000 vehicles in the 2023 forecast to approximately 150,000 by 2034—reflecting the federal zero-emission vehicle sales mandate applying only at the national level, with Nova Scotia expected to lag larger markets; managed EV charging (70% managed, 30% unmanaged) limits peak contribution to 0.9 kW/vehicle versus 1.6 kW/vehicle unmanaged, saving approximately 128 MW of peak by 2034.
- Renewable-to-Retail (RTR) market entry by a Licensed Retail Supplier is expected to reduce NS Power retail load by 246 GWh annually from 2026 onward, spread across all customer classes, while behind-the-meter rooftop solar installations are forecast to reach 674 MW of cumulative capacity by 2034, reducing energy sales by 660 GWh but contributing zero peak reduction since the annual system peak occurs in winter evenings.
- Demand Side Management (DSM) delivered by Efficiencyone is forecast to reduce NSR by approximately 699 GWh and firm peak by 266 MW by 2034 (gross), with the SAE regression methodology determining that roughly 44–55% of DSM savings are already embedded in historical sales data and end-use variables, requiring the remainder to be applied as an explicit load adjustment.
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What was filed
Documents filed on this day
- N-1 2024 Load Forecast Report + Appendices - Redacted
- N-1(C) 2024 Load Forecast Report + Appendices - Confidential
- N-1(C)-(i) Excel Attachment 4 - Confidential
- N-1-(i) Excel Attachments 1-3 and 5-10 - Non-Confidential
- 93959 Confidential Undertaking