NSPI files responses to 21 intervenor information requests on its 2026 Load Forecast, with intense scrutiny focused on unproven hybrid heating assumptions, updated peak modelling, and cyber-incident data gaps.

M12861 · Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) - 2026 Load Forecast Report

AI summary

Hybrid heating is the most contested element: NSPI confirmed it modelled three trigger scenarios (CPP events, temperature below -10°C, top-88 NSR hours) at participation rates of 20–100% of non-all-electric heat pump installs, but acknowledged no hybrid heating program currently exists or has been proposed, with a 2028 launch date treated as a working assumption; by 2036 the forecast assumes 48 MW peak reduction and 83 GWh energy reduction from roughly 27,000 enrolled customers, and NSPI confirmed that removing the hybrid impact entirely would increase the 2036 system peak by 48 MW (1.7%) and NSR by 83 GWh (0.7%).
The 2026 peak model was materially revised to incorporate a lagged-temperature variable (80% weight on the 12-hour lag, 20% on the 24-hour lag) after the January 25, 2026 peak of 2,459 MW demonstrated that a prolonged cold spell — not just a single extreme cold day — can drive system peaks, a driver absent from the 2025 model.
The 2025 cyber incident forced NSPI to reconstruct monthly billing sales data using 2024 patterns, as billing and data systems were impacted; AMI data used for the hybrid heating load-shape analysis (22,130 customers at >90% confidence) was not affected, but no timeline has been set for transitioning the load forecast to AMI-based accrued sales.
Demand response forecast tables filed in response to CA IR-3 show actual Direct Load Control reductions remain far below forecast (0.9 MW actual in 2025 versus a 4 MW forecast), while BNI Curtailment and TVP actual reductions are also below earlier projections; NSPI attributed the 2032+ jump in DLC to using E1's 2019 Potential Study as the only available long-range DR benchmark.
Intervenors raised concerns about industrial electrification (only ~36 GWh of C&I electrification by 2036), the exclusion of the May 14, 2026 federal retrofit announcement from the heat pump forecast, and the zero MW solar coincidence factor at system peak — NSPI acknowledged each gap and committed to revisiting several assumptions in the 2027 Load Forecast.

Disclaimer: This summary was generated by AI from the filings it describes. We take care to make it accurate, but errors are possible - and it isn't advice. Only the filings themselves are the record: if you're relying on something here, confirm it against the source documents or the Nova Scotia Energy Board's own record. Full disclaimer →

What was filed

Documents filed on this day

N-2 NSPI (CA) RIR 1 to 6 exhibits
N-2-(i) NSPI (CA) IR-05 Attachment 01 - Excel exhibits
N-3 NSPI (E1) RIR 1 to 11 exhibits
N-4 NSPI (NSEB) RIR 1 to 10 exhibits
N-4-(i) NSPI (NSEB) IR-06 Attachment 01 - Excel exhibits
N-4-(ii) NSPI (NSEB) IR-10 Attachment 01 - Excel exhibits
N-5 NSPI (SBA) RIR 1 to 8 exhibits
N-5-(i) NSPI (SBA) IR-02 Attachment 01 - Excel exhibits
N-6 NSPI (SNS) RIR 1 to 7 exhibits
N-7 NSPI (Synapse) RIR 1 to 21 - Redacted exhibits
N-7(C) NSPI (Synapse) RIR 1 to 21 - Confidential exhibits
N-7(C)-(i) NSPI (Synapse) RIR 1 Attachment 01 - Confidential exhibits
N-7-(ii) NSPI (Synapse) IR Attachments - Excels exhibits
102662 Letter NSPI re: RIRs and confidential material other_documents