N-3NS Power 2019 Ten Year System Outlook dated July 2, 2019
5 passages
1 Figure 7 below provides the current forecast unit utilization of NS Power’s steam fleet. 2 As noted above, assumptions and policy changes could alter the near-term of this 3 utilization forecast, particularly if carbon emission limits af...
AI summary The document presents NS Power's forecasted steam fleet utilization, noting that policy changes, particularly extensions to the NS Cap and Trade program, could alter near-term utilization projections. Forecasts will be updated as policy outcomes clarify, with revised results included in future 10-Year System Outlook reports.
1 4.5 million tonnes over that 20-year period, which represents a 55 percent reduction in 2 CO2 release over 20 years. Carbon emissions in Nova Scotia from the production of 3 electricity in 2030 will have decreased by 58 percent from 2005...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions through the Cap-and-Trade Program, relying primarily on reducing coal-fired generation rather than purchasing GHG credits. The program allows for redistribution of allowances over a four-year period to minimize compliance costs.
6.334 2020 5.517 2021 5.120 2022 5.087 4 5 NS Power thermal facilities that meet the CO2 emissions threshold for cap-and-trade 6 (50,000 tonnes) are not required to pay fuel surcharges on fuel consumed for electricity 7 generation. Fuel co...
AI summary The text outlines fuel surcharge exemptions for NS Power thermal facilities meeting specific CO2 emissions thresholds under the Cap-and-Trade Regulations, with data reflecting years 2020 to 2022. It also references a 2019 Ten-Year System Outlook document.
Page 35 of 67 2019 Ten-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 As the Port Hawkesbury Biomass facility and the combustion turbine sites do not meet 2 the emissions threshold, fuel consumed on those sites will be subject to fuel surcharges 3...
AI summary The 2019 Ten-Year System Outlook discusses fuel surcharges under Cap and Trade Regulations for facilities that do not meet emissions thresholds. Nova Scotia Air Quality Regulations have been amended to set multi-year emission caps for SO2, NOX, and mercury, with further proposed amendments for a three-year SO2 cap from 2020 to 2022.
36 of 67 2019 Ten-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Figure 18: Emissions Multi-Year Caps (SO2, NOx) Multi-Year Caps Period SO2 (t) NOX (t) 2015 – 2019 (equal outcome) 304,500 96,140 2020 60,900 14,955 2021-2022 90,000 68,000 (with ann...
AI summary The document outlines multi-year emissions caps and annual maximums for SO2 and NOX from 2015 to 2030, showing a significant reduction in emissions over time. It also includes individual unit limits for SO2 by year.
N-92020 Integrated Resource Plan
6 passages
ved, trigger a unit-specific analysis of alternatives. Monitor unit reliability for significant changes from IRP assumptions and, if observed, trigger an ELCC calculation and/or PRM study as required. Monitor the development of low/zero ca...
AI summary The document outlines a roadmap for monitoring key factors affecting Nova Scotia's energy planning, including low/zero carbon fuel development, GHG market trends, electrification growth, and DSM costs. These factors will inform resource planning decisions and trigger studies like ELCC calculations and PRM studies if significant changes are observed.
On January 1, 2019 Nova Scotia's Cap-and-Trade program came into effect. The Cap-and-Trade Program Regulations 28 include the annual free allowances for GHG emissions for Nova Scotia Power. Under the GHG Cap-and-Trade program, Nova Scotia...
AI summary Nova Scotia's Cap-and-Trade program began in 2019, allowing Nova Scotia Power to purchase up to 5% of available GHG allowances annually. However, due to limited opportunities and uncertainty in the market, GHG credit purchases are not a primary compliance strategy, with the utility instead relying on replacing coal-fired generation with low-emitting sources.
Program Regulations made under Section 112Q of the Environment Act S.N.S. 1994-95, c.1 O.I.C. 2018-294 (effective November 13, 2018), N.S. Reg. 194/2018 amended to O.I.C. 2020-109, N.S. Reg. 48/2020. the current limited level of market cer...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power suggests participating in the GHG allowance market in the short term and monitoring market developments for long-term certainty, given the current limited market experience and the ability to redistribute allowances over a four-year compliance period.
Figure 17. Greenhouse Gas Free Allowances in 2021 and 2022 Year Greenhouse Gas Allowances (Million Tonne 2021 5.120 2022 5.087 For thermal facilities that meet the ${\rm CO_2}$ emissions threshold for Cap-and-Trade (50,000 tonnes annually)...
AI summary Figure 17 shows greenhouse gas allowances for 2021 and 2022. Nova Scotia Power is exempt from fuel surcharges for facilities meeting the CO2 emissions threshold under the Cap-and-Trade Program, but facilities like the Port Hawkesbury Biomass and combustion turbine sites are subject to surcharges as they do not meet the threshold.
1. Comparator - • Emission trajectory is consistent with the emission reduction from the existing equivalency agreement and Cap-and-Trade program, reaching 3.5 MT in 2045 - • Coal retirement schedule: all coal plants retire by 2040
AI summary The emission trajectory aligns with the existing equivalency agreement and Cap-and-Trade program, aiming for 3.5 MT in 2045. All coal plants are scheduled to retire by 2040.
Power will solicit Nova Scotia-based market information which will inform this as needed. Work with E1 to monitor ongoing operational unit costs of DSM in Nova Scotia. Track the ongoing development of the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program,...
AI summary The document outlines a roadmap for monitoring market information, GHG programs, electrification growth, and continuously refining the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process. It emphasizes the need to track the Cap-and-Trade Program, DSM levels, and electrification trends to inform long-term resource planning and regulatory proceedings.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
18 passages
2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 14 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 16 of 112 2020 IRP: ENVIRONMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS (EXISTING & DEFINED POLICY) MARCH 11, 2020 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 15 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Rep...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) outlines environmental assumptions, including applicable legislation such as the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-Fired Generation of Electricity Regulations and the Clean Fuel Standard, which require coal units to meet GHG emissions intensity targets or retire.
quivalency agreement has been renewed from 2020- 2024 with agreement on future methodology from 2025-2040. • Nova Scotia’s equivalency agreements must meet evolving Federal requirements. 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 19 Nova Scotia Power...
AI summary Nova Scotia has renewed its equivalency agreement from 2020-2024 with future methodology set for 2025-2040. The Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act implements a federal carbon pricing system, allowing provinces to choose between output-based pricing or cap-and-trade. Nova Scotia has selected a cap-and-trade system, which currently does not impose a carbon tax on NS Power.
m Federal pricing and emissions reduction targets. • Nova Scotia has opted for a cap-and-trade system, therefore, this act does not currently affect NS Power in the form of a carbon tax. 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 21 Nova Scotia Power...
AI summary Nova Scotia has implemented a cap-and-trade system instead of a carbon tax, with specific regulations and free GHG allowances for NS Power. The province plans to auction credits starting in 2020, with a minimum price of $20/tonne, increasing annually. NS Power’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will focus on selling credits from emissions reductions below current allowances, without purchasing credits to over-emit.
the company to purchase credits in order to over-emit current allowances. • The sale price will be set at the market floor price of $20/tonne in 2020, escalating annually at 5% + inflation. During Screening, Nova Scotia Power will: • Exami...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power is evaluating the implications of the Clean Fuel Standard and cap-and-trade mechanisms on its capacity expansion model and portfolio study. The company will assess how selling emission credits affects resource decisions and whether quantities sold are reasonable within the Nova Scotia cap-and-trade market. The Clean Fuel Standard, expected to apply to various fuels by 2022 and 2023, will be modeled with high fuel price sensitivities.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 32 of 321 APPLICABLE LEGISLATION • Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-Fired Generation of Electricity Regulations • Regulations Limiting Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural...
AI summary The document outlines applicable legislation related to carbon emissions reduction, including regulations for coal and natural gas-fired electricity generation, as well as the Clean Fuel Standard and Cap and Trade Regulations. It also references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions and upcoming stakeholder discussions.
quivalency agreement has been renewed from 2020- 2024 with agreement on future methodology from 2025-2040. • Nova Scotia’s equivalency agreements must meet evolving Federal requirements. 2020 IRP ASSUMPTIONS SET 16 FORECASTED CO2 EMISSION...
AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia's equivalency agreements with federal requirements, the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions, and the implementation of a cap-and-trade system under the Pricing Act. It outlines hard caps on CO2 emissions and regulations for the cap-and-trade program, including free allocations for NS Power.
Appendix H Page 38 of 321 REGULATIONS • Provincial regulations that outline framework and requirements for cap and trade program. • Stipulate free allocations for NS Power GHG emissions • Meets the Federal Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing...
AI summary The document outlines provincial regulations related to cap and trade, including free GHG allowances for NS Power and compliance with federal requirements. It also discusses the Clean Fuel Standard, its exemptions, and expected implementation timelines, with NSP considering high fuel price sensitivities for modeling.
Halifax, NS, B3K 4L3 The report can be found at the link below: https://ecologyaction.ca/sites/default/files/images-documents/EAC%20Coal%20Phaseout%20Report%20- %20Final%20-%20191120.pdf ecologyaction.ca EAC Memo February 14, 2020 Page 3 o...
AI summary The EAC suggests that greater ambition in greenhouse gas emissions reductions should be considered, noting that the Sustainable Development Goals Act and federal carbon pricing reviews may lead to increased emissions reduction targets beyond current hard caps in Nova Scotia.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 3. AREA NSP should consider modelling decarbonization efforts in The load forecast assumptions were informed by the Environmental each scenario and at what price other sectors would...
AI summary The text discusses environmental assumptions related to decarbonization efforts and how NSP should model scenarios where surplus attributes from exceeding environmental targets could be sold to other sectors. NSP mentions considering the sale of surplus GHG emissions into the Nova Scotia Cap and Trade Market.
ario beyond wide range of long-term outcomes in terms of both peak regulatory targets and which models net zero and energy requirements. The Final Scenario and Modeling Plan contains GHG trajectories more stringent than current regulatory...
AI summary The document discusses NSP's approach to handling excess carbon credits and the integration of cap and trade market revenues into the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling process. It also addresses the consideration of the SDGA in business as usual scenarios and the Comparator scenario's role in the modeling process.
Fed government may require further reductions in cap & trade jurisdictions 3. EAC Consider further Renewable Energy targets and RES A sensitivity to analyze an increased RES standard has Environmental requirements been proposed as part of...
AI summary The text discusses the potential need for further reductions in cap-and-trade jurisdictions and the consideration of enhanced equivalency agreements with the federal government. It also highlights the need for Nova Scotia Power to propose emissions pathways compliant with federal regulations and the inclusion of more stringent GHG reduction scenarios in the Integrated Resource Plan.
reduction and GHG trajectories more stringent than current regulatory requirements. 3. EAC At least one scenario should examine portfolio where all NS Power has included a key driver on coal closure dates Environmental units retired by end...
AI summary The text discusses environmental assumptions, including coal closure dates and GHG reduction targets. It also mentions the incorporation of cap and trade market revenue into emissions modeling and the consideration of low-cost renewable energy scenarios for future reports.
NPV E1 In the Roadmap, NS Power has committed to tracking the ongoing development of the Nova Scotia Cap (2) The IRP results should modify the NPV revenue requirement calculation on the basis of and-Trade Program, including auction results...
AI summary NS Power is considering the impact of carbon revenues on the NPV revenue requirement calculation in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The document highlights the importance of tracking the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program and monitoring GHG market size. It also notes the potential impact of carbon pricing on resource planning decisions, including non-emitting generation procurement and coal retirement.
including non-emitting generation procurement, DSM levels, and coal retirement merits full consideration in the IRP. trajectories. Absent forecasts of carbon prices, the Federal Government's "floor" for carbon pricing is $50 per tonne in 2...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of considering carbon pricing in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), noting that the federal government's carbon pricing floor is $50 per tonne in 2022. It highlights the discrepancy between this and Nova Scotia's initial cap and trade auction price of $24 per tonne, suggesting that assuming prices below $24 is unreasonable for long-term projections. The IRP results should influence the Net Present Value (NPV) revenue requirement calculation due to the significance of carbon revenues.
to affordability, which will be adjudicated as part of subsequent DSM Resource Plan processes, as has always been the case. Further Adjustment to NPVRR w/ End Effects Results – Market Price of Carbon In its September 18, 2020 letter of com...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of carbon pricing on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the need to account for carbon revenues in revenue requirement calculations. It highlights the importance of monitoring the cap-and-trade market and the current federal pricing trajectory, while noting the lack of a clear monetary value for carbon in the 2020 IRP.
2. A defined federal pricing trajectory that will inform cap and trade pricing for the next three years; 3. A legislative commitment from the Province to reach net zero emissions by 2050; and 4. A 2019 Federal government commitment “to fur...
AI summary The document outlines a federal pricing trajectory for cap and trade, a legislative commitment to net zero by 2050, and a federal commitment to strengthen GHG reduction measures. It discusses the potential inclusion of carbon revenue in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the influence of cap and trade market revenues on the preferred resource plan selection.
There are no limestone quarry expansion costs included in the IRP model. CO2 costs Consumer In future IRP modeling analyses, NS Power should NS Power has included the monitoring of the cap-and- Advocate (3e) incorporate a shadow price for...
AI summary The text discusses the exclusion of limestone quarry expansion costs from the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) model and suggests that NS Power should incorporate a shadow price for CO2 emissions in future IRP modeling analyses. It also notes that NS Power has included monitoring of the cap-and-trade market in its IRP Roadmap.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response issue continuing to inappropriately constrain decisions on the optimum resource portfolio. Signposts / Natural Forces Capital costs of Wind: Tracking of the installed costs of NS Power has com...
AI summary Natural Forces argues that the capital costs of wind in the 'Low' pricing scenarios are more realistic and supports a faster wind build-out than the current reference plan. NS Power mentions its commitment to market pricing information for wind capacity decisions. The discussion also touches on the potential monetary value of emissions reductions under Nova Scotia's Cap-and-Trade Program.
N-11Comments - Synapse
8 passages
cost wind resources. The modification would involve a procurement plan that seeks to procure up to 631 MW of wind resources by 2025, in line with the optimal build-out for Scenario 2.1C low wind cost. Carbon Emission Modeling and Valuation...
AI summary NSPI proposes procuring 631 MW of wind resources by 2025 under Scenario 2.1C. NSPI's carbon modeling shows overcompliance with SDGA CO2 limits, allowing surplus allowances sales. However, NSPI's models do not value these overcompliance benefits, potentially undervaluing CO2 reduction impacts.
e analyzed the effect of valuing incremental carbon reductions (beyond those reflected in NSPI’s actual optimization, which uses a fixed, declining carbon constraint but doesn’t assign any value to 10 All of the wind resource build-outs ca...
AI summary The analysis evaluates the impact of valuing incremental carbon reductions beyond NSPI's current optimization model (which uses a fixed, declining carbon constraint) on resource builds and net present value of revenue requirements (NPVRR) differences across scenarios. References to the IRP Report and Cap and Trade regulations are noted.
n reduction from increased levels of DSM can be estimated by comparing two scenarios with different levels of DSM, where the scenario with more DSM leads to lower energy needs and lower CO2 emissions. One key observation seen in Table 1 ab...
AI summary The text quantifies carbon reduction value from different DSM scenarios, estimating $250 million (NPVRR) from earlier wind investment and $374 million from coal plant retirement timelines, using a $24/ton Cap and Trade price. Base vs. Mid DSM scenarios show $82 million ($24/ton) and $171 million ($50/ton) CO2 emission differences.
t outcomes that would value electric power sector carbon reductions beyond those listed in the SDGA targets for NSPI. NSPI provided its rationale for this approach in the IRP Report: “Similarly, significant uncertainty regarding the depth,...
AI summary NSPI excludes carbon credit revenue from its IRP model due to uncertainty in the Cap-and-Trade market's depth, pricing, and duration. Synapse highlights Nova Scotia's SDGA mechanism allows lower-cost emissions reductions across sectors to substitute for higher-cost ones, unlike historical resource planning practices.
emissions reductions to substitute for higher-cost reductions. For example, this would be allowed if the electric sector can reduce overall emissions at lower cost than the other sectors. Whether or not Scenario 3.1C as developed would end...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of Cap and Trade regulations on NPVRR calculations, emphasizing the need to model carbon pricing effects. Synapse advocates incorporating a shadow price for emissions into NSPI's analysis, arguing that Cap and Trade creates economic incentives for emission reductions. The comparison between scenarios hinges on carbon valuation assumptions and market demand for reductions.
l) and other large industry emitters. Cap and Trade program details including a list of mandatory participants is available here https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/cap-trade-regulations#auctions. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Analysis of...
AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia's Cap and Trade program, mandatory participants, and Synapse Energy Economics' analysis of NSPI's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. It highlights that earlier emission reductions (Scenario 3.1C) are cheaper than later ones (Scenario 2.1C) if CO2 savings are valued at ~$38/ton (2021).
ak and non- critical peak period consumption arising from beneficial electrification. v. Carbon Emission Valuation from Overcompliance with SDGA Emission Targets • Synapse suggests elevating a Roadmap step to a sixth Action Plan element fo...
AI summary The text discusses the need for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) to include an annual valuation of carbon emission reductions exceeding SDGA targets in its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It also suggests moving the tracking of the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program to the Action Plan and making it more specific.
cking of the ongoing Nova Scotia Cap-and- Trade Program. Synapse suggests this element be moved to the Action Plan and made more specific, as noted above. Additionally, obtaining better information on the near-term value associated with in...
AI summary The text discusses improvements to the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program, suggesting that the element be moved to the Action Plan and made more specific. It also highlights the need for NSPI to conduct analyses on the near-term value of emission reductions from new wind resources, particularly in relation to Cap-and-Trade auction results and procurement processes. These analyses should inform the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and resource planning.