N-3NS Power 2019 Ten Year System Outlook dated July 2, 2019
10 passages
1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 5 4 2.0 LOAD FORECAST ...................................................................
AI summary The document outlines a regulatory proceeding's table of contents, covering topics such as load forecasting, generation resources (including existing capacity, unit utilization, and investment strategies), energy mix evolution, and projections for new supply-side facilities in Nova Scotia.
..... 19 15 3.3.4 Steam Fleet Retirement Outlook ......................................................................................... 25 16 4.0 NEW SUPPLY SIDE FACILITIES ..................................................................
AI summary The document outlines sections of a regulatory proceeding, including environmental requirements, resource adequacy, transmission planning, and policy changes. Key topics include renewable energy mandates, emissions regulations, reserve criteria, and upcoming policy adjustments in Nova Scotia's energy sector.
133.6 Total Capacity 2400 1 2 3.1.1 Maximum Unit Capacity Rating Adjustments 3 As a member of the Maritimes Area of the Northeast Power Coordinating Council 4 (NPCC), NS Power meets the requirement for generator capacity verification as ou...
AI summary NS Power discusses compliance with NPCC and NERC generator capacity verification standards, the rejection and resubmission of the Tusket CT Generator Replacement project, and assumptions about wind project capacity contributions. The UARB previously declined approval, and NS Power seeks reinstatement of the asset's capacity.
etter to address the Board’s 18 concerns regarding the requirement for the Tusket CT for system security, operating 19 reserve requirements, and cost-benefit alternatives analysis. 8 The transmission upgrades being completed for the Mariti...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's plans for the Tusket CT's system security and operating reserve requirements, the impact of Maritime Link transmission upgrades on firm capacity (43 MW from PH Biomass), and the retirement of Lingan 2. It also outlines NS Power's assessment of Mersey Hydro System redevelopment due to aging infrastructure.
) 10 - 25 10 - 25 < 10 10 - 25 10 - 25 10 - 25 < 10 < 10 < 10 < 10 Service Hours 1942 1527 837 1718 1493 1107 721 486 562 634 Trenton 6 Capacity Factor (%) 26 19 23 36 38 30 34 36 34 32 Unit Cycles (Ranges) 10 - 25 10 - 25 10 - 25 10 - 25...
AI summary The text presents operational data for multiple power generation units (Trenton 6, Tufts Cove 1-3), including capacity factors (%), unit cycle ranges, and service hours across different time periods. Metrics indicate varying performance levels, with some units showing low capacity factors and service hours.
1 While the UF rating provides a directional understanding of the future use of each 2 generating unit, the practice of applying it has another layer of sophistication as system 3 parameters change. NS Power utilizes the Plexos dispatch op...
AI summary The text discusses NS Power's use of the utilization factor (UF) in forecasting sustaining investments for generating units, highlighting the use of the Plexos model and how different asset classes are affected by the UF and other factors. It emphasizes maintaining unit reliability while minimizing undepreciated capital.
FW $40,000,000 Fuel Systems $30,000,000 Env&Emiss CW $20,000,000 CTs $10,000,000 Boiler $0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2 3 Note: Figure does not include escalation as it is used for asset planning. Forecast investment...
AI summary The text presents a financial projection for capital investments, highlighting a significant sustaining capital investment for Tufts Cove Unit #2 in 2028. NS Power plans to evaluate replacement options for the unit based on Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s Generation Utilization and Optimization study, as part of the upcoming Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
ty will be responsible for is 100 percent 28 of its greatest, on-line, net single contingency, and, NSPI shall be 29 responsible for 50 MW of Thirty-Minute Reserve. 25 https://www.npcc.org/Standards/Directories/Forms/Public%20List.aspx 26...
AI summary The document outlines reserve responsibility formulas for NS Power, including a 40% share of the largest loss-of-source contingency in the Maritimes Area, and details the ten-minute reserve requirements, including spinning and regulating reserves, based on factors like Point Aconi's online status and usage of Maritime Link power.
refine the capacity 15 estimates as required. Changes, if necessary, will be incorporated within future 10-Year 16 System Outlook Reports. 17 18 7.4 Load and Resources Review 19 20 The ten-year Load and Resources Outlook in Figure 22 and F...
AI summary The document discusses the need to refine capacity estimates and updates the 10-Year System Outlook Reports. It highlights a current forecast of a capacity deficit, which is expected to affect only one week in the coming years. NS Power is evaluating the Planning Reserve Margin in the upcoming Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to comply with NPCC criteria and determine the optimal resource mix.
2,100 2,119 2,141 2,160 2,183 2,201 2,214 2,229 2,244 2,255 B DSM Firm31 29 46 63 80 97 115 133 152 173 195 C Firm Peak Less DSM (A - B) 2,070 2,073 2,078 2,080 2,086 2,086 2,081 2,076 2,070 2,060 D Required Reserve (C x 20%) 414 415 416 4...
AI summary The text presents numerical data related to demand-side management (DSM) and capacity planning, including DSM Firm, Firm Peak Less DSM, Required Reserve, and Required Capacity across various time points. It also includes details on existing resources and resource additions such as thermal, biomass, community feed-in-tariff, and maritime link imports.
N-8NSPI Letter update on IRP process
14 passages
constraints. The Analysis Plan may also identify other metrics for consideration in evaluating the optimal path forward that will be considered during the Modeling and/or Analysis/Conclusions Phases. Many of the remaining assumptions which...
AI summary The document outlines the development of an Analysis Plan for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which includes modeling approaches, assumptions, and metrics for evaluating demand and supply-side resources. It also mentions a Capacity Study conducted by NS Power's consultant, Energy and Environmental Economics Inc (E3), focusing on statistical loss of load expectation (LOLE) studies to establish key assumptions for the IRP.
g likely resource mix, NS Power will be able to establish a PRM value and/or methodology to use for system design for the coming years at the conclusion of the IRP. 3.2.2 Capacity Value of Renewables NS Power recognizes a key issue for con...
AI summary NS Power acknowledges the challenge of replacing firm capacity and grid services provided by coal units in Nova Scotia, particularly due to limited interconnection, lack of natural gas, and the mismatch between solar generation and winter peak demand. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will address these issues and establish a PRM value or methodology for system design.
12 of 487 with renewables have limitations due to the long duration requirements the storage would need to provide in order to ensure load would be served during the entire timeframe of the peak. In order to ensure the peak demands of the...
AI summary The text discusses the limitations of renewable energy with storage due to long duration requirements and emphasizes the importance of quantifying the contribution of each resource, particularly through the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) methodologies. These methods help determine the guaranteed capacity of renewable resources to ensure reliable system operation during peak demand periods.
LOLE is used to set capacity market demand curve; Minimum Installed Reserve Margin NYISO LOLE 0.1 days/year (IRM) is 16.8%; Achieved IRM in 2019 is 27.0% PacifiCorp N/A N/A 13% PRM selected by balancing cost and reliability; Meets 0.1 LOLE...
AI summary The text discusses various approaches to setting reliability standards and reserve margins in electricity systems, including the use of LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation), PRM (Planning Reserve Margin), and LOLH (Loss of Load Hours) across different regions such as NYISO, PJM, SPP, and others. These metrics are used to determine capacity market demand curves and ensure system reliability.
67 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 69 of 89 The Republic of Ireland Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin ▪ LOLE: 8 hours/year ▪ LOLE standard is used to determine a ▪ Standard is set based on economic MW capacity requ...
AI summary The document outlines reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting practices in the Republic of Ireland, including the use of LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) as a standard to determine capacity requirements and payments to generators. Dispatchable and renewable units are de-rated for forced outage rates (FOR) in capacity calculations.
epresenting E1, Draft questions for NSP re IRP prework by E3 and PSC Capacity Study What process did E3 undertake to determine whether temperature was a significant driver of renewable production? What information can E3 provide about the...
AI summary The text includes questions related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, focusing on factors influencing renewable energy production, loss of load events, and cost considerations for wind energy. It also asks about modeling assumptions and data used in the Capacity Study and Supply Options Study.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 197 of 487 Attachment 16 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 2 of 2 Cc: Lia MacDonald, Senior Director Enterprise Asset Management, NSPI Carly Currie, Regulatory Project Manager, NSPI Nicole Godbout, Director of Regulato...
AI summary The document includes contact information for various officials and organizations related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update and a deliverable titled 'Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study' prepared by Nova Scotia Power Inc. in July 2019.
Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 17 of 85 « Unplanned forced generator outages « Higher than normal peak loads (i.e. very cold weather in Nova Scotia) « Operating reserve requirements The PRM is a convention that is typically base...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its calculation, noting that it is typically based on a comparison of installed generation capacity to the 1-in-2 median peak load. NSPI uses a winter day with -15°C temperatures for forecasting, which approximates this median peak load. PRM requirements vary among utilities depending on system size and diversity.
the application of sophisticated modeling tools to determine both the appropriate PRM and the contribution of each resource towards resource adequacy. 1.4 Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) Effective load carrying capability (ELCC)...
AI summary The document discusses the use of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) as a measure of how non-firm resources like wind, solar, and demand response contribute to the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and system reliability. ELCC is described as a rigorous but complex metric that requires significant data and modeling.
ion’s subsection. For the jurisdictions with an LOLE reliability standard, achievement of the target reliability standard varies between two primary mechanisms: an explicit PRM and a capacity market. For jurisdictions with an explicit PRM,...
AI summary The text discusses how jurisdictions with an LOLE reliability standard achieve their targets through mechanisms like explicit PRM and capacity markets. Nova Scotia Power uses LOLP modeling to determine PRM, while capacity markets use LOLP modeling to construct capacity demand curves and determine market clearing prices.
NYISO LOLE 0.1 days/year LOLE is used to set capacity market demand curve; Minimum Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) is 16.8%; Achieved IRM in 2019 is 27.0% PacifiCorp N/A N/A 13% PRM selected by balancing cost and reliability; Meets 0.1 LOLE...
AI summary The text compares reliability metrics and reserve margin targets across various electricity systems, including LOLE, EUE, LOLH, and PRM, highlighting how different regions use these metrics to ensure system reliability and manage capacity markets.
pdate Appendix 1 Page 245 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 48 of 85 Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study metric (for example, 0.1 LOLE) and then uses a Newton method algorithm to add or remove firm capacity from...
AI summary The document describes a method for calculating the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) using a reliability target metric and the Newton method algorithm. It also outlines the process for calculating Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for dispatch-limited resources by removing them and adding perfectly dispatchable resources until the original reliability level is restored.
es to reliability, as described. NS Power anticipates IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 443 of 487 Appendix A - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 2 of 29 iterating on the PRM calculation for certain IRP portfolios to inform potential changes to the exist...
AI summary NS Power plans to refine PRM calculations for IRP portfolios, while Bates White advises aligning E3's reserve definitions with NERC/NPCC standards. The text highlights jurisdictional variations in operating reserve modeling for PRM studies, referencing a jurisdictional scan showing consistency with other regions.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 4. Supply Side Digby Introduce EVs as means to create demand at Conway The IRP does not consider the specific programs that Options substation. EV charging supports renewable energy...
AI summary The discussion focuses on supply-side options, including the integration of EVs, tidal energy, microgrids, solar gardens, and lithium-ion battery storage. NS Power responds to concerns about electrification, microgrid modeling, and updated cost estimates for storage technologies.
N-92020 Integrated Resource Plan
11 passages
r, VT: Regulatory Assistance Project. Farnsworth, D., Shipley, J., Lazar, J., and Seidman, N. (2018, June). Beneficial electrification: Ensuring electrification in the public interest. (raponline.org) - b. Complete a thermal plant Deprecia...
AI summary The document outlines several initiatives, including updating depreciation rates for thermal plants, developing a plan for replacing natural gas-powered steam turbines, and initiating a wind procurement strategy. It also emphasizes the creation of a demand response strategy targeting 75 MW of capacity by 2025.
2.4.2 Target Planning Reserve Margin As explained in more detail in Section 5.3, Nova Scotia Power's PLEXOS LT expansion model considers the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) constraint in the optimization. Traditionally, Nova Scotia Power has...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power traditionally used the Installed Capacity (ICAP) method to target a 20% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM), but has shifted to the Unforced Capacity (UCAP) method following stakeholder feedback and consulting with E3. The UCAP method accounts for forced outages and is considered more reliable for resource sizing, especially in a smaller system where large outages can significantly impact effective capacity.
or unforced capacity value. This approach puts existing and candidate thermal and renewable resources on an "equal footing" by accounting for the resources' contributions to peak in a consistent way. For the 2020 IRP, Nova Scotia Power use...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) approach used in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which ensures that thermal and renewable resources are treated equally. Nova Scotia Power used a 20 percent ICAP PRM, converted to a 9 percent UCAP PRM for capacity expansion modeling, to ensure fair crediting for renewable resources like wind. The PRM target will be re-evaluated if load characteristics or generation mix change significantly.
3.1.2 Effective Load Carrying Capability When system reliability is maintained through a PRM requirement in the planning process, one of the most important steps is quantifying the amount of firm capacity provided by each existing and cand...
AI summary This section discusses the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) method for evaluating the contribution of dispatch-limited resources to system reliability. It explains how dispatch-limited resources like wind and solar have varying capacities based on conditions and how ELCC quantifies their actual contribution to resource adequacy. Nova Scotia Power used ELCC values in their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), calculated using E3's RECAP model.
5.3.2 Assessing Reliability One of the objectives of the IRP Portfolio Analysis is to ensure that the modeled resource plans meet the established reliability criterion (see Section 3.1 for details on the selection of a reliability criterio...
AI summary The IRP Portfolio Analysis ensures resource plans meet reliability criteria, using the Planning Reserve Margin and resource capacity values. E3's RECAP model is used in two stages to assess the existing system and evaluate optimal resource plans, aiming to meet Nova Scotia Power's reliability criterion of 1-day-in-10-years LOLE.
some solar generation is seen late in the planning horizon under the Accelerated Net-Zero 2045 GHG trajectory (described on next page) but is generally a higher-cost renewable resource in Nova Scotia. The remaining coal-fired units are pre...
AI summary The document discusses resource additions and retirements in Nova Scotia's electricity system, including the retirement of coal units by the late 2030s, the addition of natural gas and wind capacity by 2040, and the impact of different GHG reduction trajectories on resource planning.
6.2 Energy Mix Similar to the capacity addition and retirement chart, Nova Scotia Power has been using a consistent format to share annual energy mix results throughout this IRP process. Figure 48 below shows how the annual generation mix...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's energy mix is projected to shift significantly over the planning horizon, with coal generation declining due to GHG emissions curves and the retirement of coal units. Wind generation and low-carbon imports are expected to increase, while new gas combustion turbines provide firm capacity but operate at low capacity factors.
The results above are consistent with Nova Scotia Power's 2020 10-Year System Outlook Report. This updated modeling indicates that a UCAP PRM of 9 percent continues to be appropriate for capacity expansion planning in the near and long ter...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's 2020 10-Year System Outlook Report supports a UCAP PRM of 9 percent for capacity expansion planning, with a 20 percent ICAP PRM Target used for near-term capacity reporting.
6.8.2 Wind Nova Scotia Power tested a series of sensitivities to investigate the potential impact of technology cost and integration requirements on both the level and timing of wind capacity builds. The results of the first two scenarios,...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power tested various wind energy scenarios, showing that lower wind costs and integration requirements lead to earlier wind capacity installations and coal retirements. Lower inertia requirements had minimal impact on resource plans, while removing integration constraints led to late wind additions and higher curtailment, suggesting the need for further analysis.
6.8.5 Sustaining Capital Evaluating ongoing sustaining capital investments for existing generating units is an important part of the IRP process. In particular, during this period of significant system transformation, the sustaining capita...
AI summary This section discusses the evaluation of sustaining capital investments for existing generating units as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process. Two sensitivity scenarios—High and Low sustaining capital—are analyzed, showing how changes in sustaining capital affect retirement timelines and resource planning, with the base case being the most economically viable for customers.
- 3a New combustion turbines, operating at low capacity factors, are currently the lowest-cost domestic source of firm capacity and replace retiring thermal capacity in all resource plans. These units are also fast-acting, meaning they can...
AI summary New combustion turbines are identified as the lowest-cost domestic source of firm capacity, replacing retiring thermal capacity. Nova Scotia Power's existing combustion turbines are economically viable and provide firm capacity and ancillary grid services. Coal-to-gas unit conversions are also selected economically in several scenarios to provide low-cost, low-emitting capacity.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
42 passages
able to model in each scenario (this may differ by scenario). Combination of qualitative evaluation and/or quantitative modeling using E3’s RESOLVE model. Initial Portfolio Conduct capacity expansion optimization modeling with Plexos LT St...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology for evaluating resource portfolios and scenarios in Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It includes capacity expansion optimization modeling using Plexos and E3’s RESOLVE model, reliability screening with E3’s RECAP model, and operability screening using Plexos MT/ST to assess production costs and dispatch constraints.
25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,361 $12,983 General Notes • High case is modeled as a +50% increase in annual Sustaining Capital estimates for all thermal steam units (gas and coal) • Reliability Tie is built 6 years earlier and Regional Interconnec...
AI summary The document presents financial and environmental impacts of different scenarios for a 25-year and 10-year period, including changes in capital estimates, retirements of gas and coal units, and the impact on CO2 emissions. These scenarios involve adjustments to infrastructure timelines and resource replacements, affecting NPVRR and emissions outcomes.
2.1C.CAPEX-2 (Low Sustaining CaMW/units Generator Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 Existing Coal Retirements 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1...
AI summary The text presents a table outlining the planned retirement and new capacity additions for various types of generators from 2021 to 2045, including coal, gas, and biomass. It highlights the retirement of existing coal and gas units and the addition of new gas capacity, particularly in the form of combined cycle (CC) and combustion turbine (CT) units.
2.1C.PRICES-1 (High Import & GaMW/units Generator Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 Existing Coal Retirements 0 0 1 Unit 1 Unit 1 Unit 1 Unit 1...
AI summary The table outlines the planned retirements and additions of various electricity generation units from 2021 to 2045, including coal, gas, and renewable sources, highlighting the phase-out of existing coal and gas units and the introduction of new gas units and compressed air energy storage.
and other customer values), or • if NS Power cannot estimate the non-energy benefits, just the costs paid by NS Power, reduced by T&D benefits (reduced line losses, avoided investments). 4. Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study, focusing on the DAFOR (Demand Availability Factor) for various generation units. It highlights discrepancies between historical DAFOR averages and assumptions used in the E3 study, suggesting the need for a longer averaging period. It also addresses the effective load-carrying capacity (ELCC) of thermal and wind generation units and the derating of thermal plants for capacity planning.
• Large, mid-DAFOR (Lingan 3&4, Trenton 5&6) • Smaller, very-high-DAFOR (TC 1 &2) • Very small, high-DAFOR (CTs) • The odd mix of TC 4-6 ELCC should vary among these units. Replacing a MW of TC 1 or 2 should require less capacity than a MW...
AI summary The text discusses varying DAFOR and ELCC values for different power generation units, suggesting that ELCC should differ based on unit type. It critiques the E3 study's assumption that hydro resources are equivalent to firm dispatchable resources, citing concerns about storage capacity, drought impacts, and capacity factors during winter peak hours. The document recommends that NS Power review its hydro capacity value assumptions.
ng diversity benefits associated with a mix of resources. This could result in the analysis selecting too much of the resources with high ELCC values in the E3 study and too little of other resources. 5. Planning Reserve Margin and Capacit...
AI summary The text discusses concerns with the E3 study's methodology in selecting resources based on ELCC values and raises questions about the relationship between weather data and load profiles in the Capacity Value Study. It also references a response by NS Power to the NSUARB regarding the 2020 ACE Plan, highlighting poor performance of specific hydro feeders.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 6. Planning CA Use longer averaging period for TUC DAFOR (7 years vs 3) To avoid subjectivity, NS Power selected a three year Reserve Margin (Chernick & average for all units in ord...
AI summary The document discusses assumptions related to reserve margin planning and the use of different methods for calculating Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) and Installed Capacity (ICAP) for various types of generation. NS Power responds to recommendations regarding the averaging period for TUC DAFOR and the treatment of non-thermal generation in ELCC calculations.
1 Run the “In” Case: Run RESOLVE with all The diesel CT screening analysis evaluates existing units in the model to identify optimal the system value of NSP’s diesel CT assets future resource portfolio that meets reliability and GHG goal...
AI summary The text describes a process to evaluate the system value of NSP’s diesel CT assets by running two scenarios in RESOLVE: one including all existing diesel CTs ('in' case) and one excluding them ('out' case). The difference in costs between these scenarios reflects the net system value or cost of the diesel CTs.
ve to alternative resource options; as such replacement energy does not factor into these calculations Diesel Peakers Marginal Value - 1.0.A Diesel Peakers Marginal Value – 2.1.C Levelized Levelized Fixed O&M + Fixed O&M + Sustaining Susta...
AI summary The document discusses the marginal value of diesel peakers and the cost-benefit analysis of replacing them with gas peakers in Nova Scotia. It highlights that while diesel peakers are rarely used, their removal would require new gas peakers to maintain reliability. The economic choice favors gas peakers over alternatives like battery storage. The net present value of maintaining diesel peakers is estimated at ~$186 MM without end effects and ~$240 MM with end effects.
Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 37 of 245 Net Zero, Mid Elec./Base DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 Higher loads than 2.0.A leads to about ~260 MW more GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.2 1.4 g...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of higher loads on the Net Zero, Mid Elec./Base DSM, and Current Landscape scenarios, leading to increased gas peaker, CCGT, wind, and battery build. It also highlights rising generation costs and the increasing share of wind and imported energy by 2045.
12,000 1,500 Tidal (MW) Solar Capacity(MW) Solar Imports (Non-firm) (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) 1,000 Solar
AI summary The text presents a visual representation of energy capacity data, including tidal, solar, and imported non-firm energy, with values in MW and GWh. It appears to be a chart or table illustrating installed capacity and energy generation.
operational responses to accommodate additional wind. First, under hourly conditions of high wind and high imports without the reliability tie, wind generation could be capped at 700 MW. Second, under conditions of high wind, a minimum con...
AI summary The text discusses potential operational responses to accommodate additional wind generation, including capping wind generation at 700 MW during high wind and high import conditions, and establishing a minimum conventional capacity requirement during high wind hours. NS Power may model these constraints in its planning models or estimate curtailment costs exogenously.
early build of an NGCC unit, reducing gas peaker capacity, and reducing firm imports. Is there something about the way firm imports are characterized that needs to be reconsidered? Why is the model suggesting that it is economic to build a...
AI summary The text raises concerns about the timing and economic rationale for building new generation units, the characterization of firm imports, and the need for model adjustments to align with 2050 climate targets. It also questions the interconnection timeline and the combination of wind and storage procurement.
y) from the IRP Assumptions document, and Capacity Credit, calculated as the IRP capacity × capacity factor for the top 1.1% hours. The first two columns of data include Lingan 2 in the coal category. Table 2: Operating and Firm Capacity (...
AI summary The text discusses the calculation of capacity credit based on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions and provides a table showing operating and firm capacity for various NS Power units. The table includes data on coal, gas, wind, and other energy sources, highlighting differences between operating capacities and calculated capacity credits.
r Response July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Reserve CA-01 The ICAP method, which produces a 20% PRM, accounts Margin Instead of a planning reserve margin of 21% of installed for both thermal forced outages and extreme...
AI summary The discussion revolves around the planning reserve margin (PRM) calculation methods used by NS Power. It compares the ICAP method, which results in a 20% PRM, and the UCAP method, which results in a lower PRM due to ELCC considerations. The ICAP method accounts for thermal forced outages and extreme weather, while the UCAP method only accounts for more extreme weather than the 1-in-2 peak.
(except the comparator case), we suggest that there should All scenarios had access to the Reliability Tie as a be a capacity plan with steam retirements but without the candidate resource to enable wind integration. Based on major transmi...
AI summary The text discusses the need for a capacity plan that includes steam retirements and evaluates the impact of excluding major transmission options, particularly the Reliability Tie, on wind integration. It also mentions sensitivity analyses conducted by NS Power and the suggestion to develop additional expansion plans for avoided cost analysis related to Wreck Cove.
Inertia CA-11 NSP should conduct capacity expansion plan modeling with NS Power has accepted these recommendations no inertia constraint and/or with a 1500MW-s inertia and included additional sensitivities in the Final Consumer constraint...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's need to conduct capacity expansion plan modeling with varying inertia constraints and the sensitivity of model results to wind energy costs and reliability tie requirements. NS Power has accepted recommendations and included additional sensitivities in its Final Portfolio Study.
ELCC CA-12 The E3 Capacity Value study indicates that the wind ELCC NS Power provides a 19% capacity value for the drops from 38% at near-zero capacity to 19% at NSP’s existing approx. 600MW of wind, as derived in the Consumer current wind...
AI summary The text discusses the capacity value of wind resources, noting that the ELCC drops from 38% to 19% as wind capacity increases. It highlights that NS Power's current IRP assumptions assign the same ELCC value to both existing and incremental wind capacity, which may not accurately reflect the performance of existing resources during peak hours.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 204 of 245 IRP Participant Comments and NS Power Response July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response ELCC CA-14 ELCC of incremental wind See response to CA-12 above. NS Power h...
AI summary The Consumer Advocate comments on the ELCC of incremental wind, noting that after accounting for capacity credit, the capacity factor for wind in peak hours significantly drops. NS Power responds by explaining that ELCC analysis considers wind's contribution to firm capacity on an 8760 basis, not just peak hours, and references prior discussions on this topic.
ELCC CA-17 ELCC of Wreck Cove and Mersey Wreck Cove is an energy-limited peaking plant and an important source of ancillary grid services such Consumer Can NS Power explain why Wreck Cove operates so little in as reserve. When modeled in t...
AI summary The text discusses the operation of Wreck Cove and Mersey power plants, focusing on their capacity factors, dispatch reliability, and ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capacity) values. It questions why Wreck Cove operates so little during high-load hours and whether it has sufficient energy resources to support a 95% ELCC rating, especially during long winter peaks. It also raises concerns about Mersey's dispatch reliability and flexibility in reserve operations.
lines the underlying requirements for these resources to relatively quickly with installed capacity on the Nova provide this service, reducing costs to customers. Scotia system, in part due to the more variable nature of the wind resource...
AI summary The analysis questions whether the end effects assessment sufficiently considers the additional costs of fossil-based resources compared to renewable ones, especially with growing carbon constraints. It also raises concerns about the assumption of an infinite reinvestment horizon and the low capacity factors of combustion turbine resources added for capacity.
Transition plan NF-05 Transition plans are needed to replace generation, which NS Power agrees that the system transformations and wind adds doesn’t happen instantaneously - a new build and a indicated in the IRP scenarios will require cau...
AI summary The text discusses the need for a transition plan to replace generation capacity, emphasizing that NS Power agrees that system transformations occur over long periods. It highlights the importance of adding wind capacity gradually up to 2030 and the need for infrastructure such as the 2nd AC intertie or BES/synch comps to accompany wind installations. The text also notes that premature capital expenditure could increase costs to consumers.
ct” 1-in-2 or “100% firm” capacity was forecast by NS Power Peak to be 2070 MW in 2020 Load 9 RECAP is used to test the reliability of the final PLEXOS portfolios Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 12 of 264 RECAP calcula...
AI summary The document discusses the use of the RECAP model in assessing the reliability of energy portfolios, particularly in relation to capacity expansion modeling and Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) values. It mentions the planning reserve margin (PRM) and the importance of ensuring adequate system capacity with a target of 0.1 days/year loss-of-load expectation (LOLE).
Installed Capacity (MW) ELCC (MW) / UCAP ICAP (MW) Includes all thermal units Dispatchable 1,505 1,418 1,505 Firm Imports 588 527 588 Includes only firm DR - - - imports Storage 33 27 27 Variable 1,132 152 152 Thermal, imports and Hydro 36...
AI summary The document presents capacity and ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capability) data for Nova Scotia's energy portfolio, including installed capacity, UCAP (Ultimate Capacity), ICAP (Installed Capacity), and PRM (Primary Reserve Management) metrics. It highlights a capacity surplus and the relationship between these metrics and reserve targets in 2045.
eport Appendix K Page 50 of 264 DRAFT FINDINGS 2. CONTINUED Decarbonizing Nova Scotia Power ’s electricity supply will require investment in a diverse portfolio of non- and low-emitting resources. c) Coal units are generally sustained econ...
AI summary The draft findings discuss the need for investment in non- and low-emitting resources to decarbonize Nova Scotia Power's electricity supply. Coal units are being retired, requiring new generating capacity. Hydro resources are economically viable, and energy efficiency programs are deemed cost-effective. Firm capacity resources, such as combustion turbines, will be essential for the near and long term.
they can quickly respond to changes in wind and non-firm imported energy. 50-150MW is required by 2025, while 600- 1000MW of new capacity is required by 2045 to support retirement of steam units. b) NS Power’s existing Combustion Turbine r...
AI summary The document outlines the need for firm capacity resources in Nova Scotia Power's system, emphasizing the importance of combustion turbines, battery storage, and demand response programs. It highlights the required capacity additions by 2025 and 2045, the economic benefits of existing resources, and the role of planning reserve margins in ensuring supply reliability.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,097 $13,141 General Notes • While the Mersey system was economically retained in the screening phase, this sensitivity was completed in order to understand how cap...
AI summary The document evaluates the financial and operational impacts of decommissioning the Mersey Hydro system, including the replacement of capacity and energy, changes in regional integration timelines, and the associated decommissioning costs. It also outlines the partial rate impact on the grid due to these changes.
e peak period of a day, limiting its contribution to reliability. This limitation should be considered in combination with DAFOR in determining its ELCC and the overall system planning reserve margin. Sustaining capital cost profiles Accor...
AI summary The text discusses the need to consider the limitations of peak period contributions to reliability when determining ELCC and system planning reserve margins. It also highlights inconsistencies in the capital cost profiles for Point Aconi, including potential additional investments not reflected in the IRP assumptions, and recommends that NS Power verify and provide detailed updated assumptions.
t investments in oil cooling systems are intended to address this latter concern; data on the impact of these investments is inconclusive at this point and should be monitored.”3 2 M09548 – (Exhibit N-1) Audit of Nova Scotia Power, Inc.’s...
AI summary The text discusses investments in oil cooling systems and their inconclusive impact on addressing concerns. It also highlights Heritage Gas's recommendation to replace aging combustion turbines at Burnside with new capacity to address reliability issues and meet future needs.
ight of the above, NSP’s proposed/draft action plan item 3(c) viz: “Initiate a wind procurement strategy, targeting 0-100 MW new installed capacity by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030” seems unduly limiting, particularly as regards the implie...
AI summary The proposed wind procurement strategy by NSP is criticized for its upper limit of 350 MW by 2030, as higher wind volumes in some scenarios could lead to lower electricity rates. The requirement for additional infrastructure like batteries or an AC intertie increases capital costs, potentially reducing wind installations.
point here. 4. Consideration of Risk NSP has aimed at identifying certain actions which are generally common to all or most scenarios, and has proposed these within its initial draft action plan. A common approach is also to look for scena...
AI summary The document discusses the consideration of risk in the context of Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) action plan, emphasizing the importance of identifying low-regret scenarios that perform well across various future conditions. It also addresses the continuation of associating battery and synch comp costs with additional wind capacity, with NSP limiting wind capacity to 700 MW unless accompanied by capital-intensive batteries.
ts, combustion turbines, the letter of comment); rather, the model is constrained by steam unit minimum up and down times (and and wind (presumably for the energy). is penalized by unit start costs) which would suggest that a more flexible...
AI summary The text discusses the use of combustion turbines for inertia and other services, the impact of unit start costs on system flexibility, and the integration of unit commitment costs into optimization models. It also touches on the trade-offs of transmission and reliability measures, and the influence of inertia and reserve constraints on retirement pace.
deficiency and require incremental CT resources, at a higher cost than sustaining the existing fleet. Dispatch and CA NS Power’s PLEXOS model incorporates system operating requirements and generating unit properties operating reserve Day-A...
AI summary The document highlights discrepancies between NS Power’s Day-Ahead and Real-Time schedules and actual dispatch, leading to inefficiencies. It also notes issues with operating-reserve surpluses and recommends that NS Power verify its IRP model assumptions and update findings to ensure optimal reserve provision and cost efficiency.
the actual dispatch patterns observed in historical data, subject to the notes above. Wreck Cove CA During NS Power’s long winter peaks, Wreck Cove may not be able to operate at full load This was considered in the original Capacity Study...
AI summary The text discusses the limitations of Wreck Cove's operation during peak winter periods and how this affects its contribution to system reliability. It also mentions updates to the Plexos model by NS Power regarding sustaining capital costs for coal units, including adjustments based on utilization observed in the Initial Portfolio Study.
operational profile (capacity factor, operating Item 4 – this would be considered in future planning hours, number of unit starts, etc.) to recent work, as triggered by IRP Roadmap Item 5 historical data; • Further evaluate the longer-term...
AI summary The document discusses the need to evaluate the operational profile of diesel CT units using historical data and to reassess the capital forecast for the diesel CT fleet as part of the evergreen IRP process. It also highlights the importance of re-evaluating CT economics as storage costs decrease and fuel costs increase. Additionally, it mentions the need to document a resolution to the issue of high operating-reserve surpluses identified in the FAM audit.
i) NS Power’s existing Planning Reserve Margin deficit would increase by the change in ELCC of small hydro (if applicable). This would require additional resource procurement early in the planning horizon, however the impact is thought to...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of changes in ELCC of small hydro on NS Power’s Planning Reserve Margin deficit and the potential reduction in replacement capacity required for decommissioned hydro assets. It highlights that a decrease in ELCC could increase the PRM deficit and lower replacement costs.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE SBA Supportive of Action Plan item for further analysis: 2020-09-18; p.2/3 -:While the draft analysis indicates that the assumed system inertia requirement is not binding for several years,...
AI summary The SBA supports further analysis of the system inertia requirement, noting that cost declines for wind capacity or other factors may accelerate wind development and the need for reliability solutions. The AREA comments on the economic sustainability of coal units until their model-imposed retirement dates, with potential for early retirement if constraints are satisfied.
DSM has not been adequately considered.’ Heritage No comment n/a JFS Hydrostor No comment n/a Natural No comment n/a Forces PHP No comment n/a SBA No challenge to Finding but provides comments 2020-11-13; p. 2/3 respecting guidance for Act...
AI summary The document indicates that demand-side management (DSM) has not been adequately considered in the resource plans. It also highlights the importance of new combustion turbines for firm capacity, with some stakeholders noting their cost-effectiveness and the need to test the market for these units.
• Provide further evidence in the FAM audit proceeding regarding the performance of its refurbished diesel combustion turbine units; • Provide to RII and other interested stakeholders data comparing the modeled operational profile (capacit...
AI summary The document outlines several requests for further evidence and evaluation related to the performance of diesel combustion turbine units, the operational profile of these units, the sustaining capital forecast for the diesel CT fleet, and the re-evaluation of CT economics as storage costs decrease and fuel costs increase. The EAC expressed concern regarding long-term fossil-based investments.
Request / Directive Originator Status NS Power Comments In addition, the following items noted in the Bates White fuel NSUARB Complete Pre-IRP deliverables included the PSC Renewable audit report likely should be addressed during the first...
AI summary The NSUARB has directed NS Power to address several items from the Bates White fuel audit report during the first phase of the IRP process, including evaluating wind resources, comparing the economics of replacing CTs, and assessing capital investments at Trenton 6 or Point Tupper Marine.
following additional sensitivities were included in this work: • Specific analysis of the Victoria Junction combustion turbine site, conducted both with and without addition of locational effects relative to load centre in Halifax (i.e. ad...
AI summary The analysis includes specific evaluations of the Victoria Junction combustion turbine site, sensitivity analyses of PRM requirements under UCAP and ICAP calculations, and additional capacity expansions in RESOLVE using a 7% UCAP PRM assumption to assess resource adequacy and avoid capacity surplus.
N-10Comments - Bates White
9 passages
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4 Assessment of IRP Compliance with FAM Audit Recommendations ......................... 4 A. Recommendatio...
AI summary The document assesses compliance with FAM audit recommendations on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), emphasizing regular planning, reserve margin determination, transparent peak load forecasting, and stakeholder input. It highlights the need to evaluate natural gas infrastructure, biomass plant value, and combustion turbine analysis, alongside addressing cost-benefit assessments and load effects.
g combustion turbines differ substantially from new combustion turbines. ................................................................................................................. 15 3. Battery storage is not limited from providing...
AI summary The document discusses combustion turbine differences, battery storage capacity, and IRP results highlighting reliance on firm imports and regional transmission. It addresses electrification uncertainties, sensitivity to resource costs, and NSPI's Action Plan evaluation, emphasizing the need for competitive procurement and substantiating investment decisions.
ensure that NSPI will be regularly determining the lowest planning reserve margin possible to meet NPCC requirements, rather than just assessing if “20%” remains in compliance.7 In the 2020 IRP Report, NSPI explains that it “will continue...
AI summary NSPI's 2020 IRP Report uses a 20% ICAP/9% UCAP planning reserve margin, citing E3 studies confirming reliability. However, NSPI hasn't declared this margin as optimal, with critics questioning the sufficiency of their analysis.
get Planning Reserve Margin. In other words, a PRM of less than 9%/20% can be ‘more optimal’ and should be continue to be evaluated as part of future procurement efforts and the IRP evergreen process. 3. Provide Transparent Peak Load Forec...
AI summary The text discusses evaluating lower Planning Reserve Margins (PRM) below 9%/20% as optimal in future procurement and the IRP process. It praises NSPI for transparent peak load forecasting, incorporating diverse scenarios to address past overestimations. The recommendation emphasizes considering all investment alternatives, including demand-side management, transmission expansion, and renewable resources, as part of the IRP.
mptions Set, January 20, 2020. 26 See, for example, 2020 IRP Report, section 1.9.1. 9 Bates White Comments On NSPI Final IRP Report Explicitly address the effect of PHP load. The LRT requires that NSPI exclude PHP from its planning conside...
AI summary Bates White urges NSPI to assess the long-term impacts of PHP load on FAM customers after NSPI replaced the LRT with the ELIADC Tariff, which models PHP's load as demand response. NSPI argues PHP's load is shaped to reduce peak demand and does not contribute to firm peak load, as PHP is a Priority Interruptible customer.
e Margin and Capacity Value Study,” July 2019. 37 Audit Report, Recommendation IX-1. 12 Bates White Comments On NSPI Final IRP Report Recommendation XIV-5: NSPI should perform a standalone analysis to determine the value of the Biomass Pla...
AI summary The text recommends NSPI conduct a standalone analysis to assess the Biomass Plant's value to FAM customers without PHP load, ensuring FAM customers aren't burdened by costs tied to PHP load. It also highlights the need for economic evaluation of NSPI's diesel-fired combustion turbines.
0 IRP Report, page 18. 43 2020 IRP Report, page 21. 44 2020 IRP Report, section 6.8.5. 15 Bates White Comments On NSPI Final IRP Report and economic benefit to customers.”45 Significant differences exist, however, between the lowest-cost n...
AI summary Bates White highlights that new gas-fired combustion turbines (50 MW) would outperform NSPI’s aging diesel units (33 MW, 45 years old) in heat rate, forced outage rate, and availability, offering economic and efficiency benefits. The analysis compares these technologies within the 2020 IRP Report.
diesel- fired units47). The new resources would likely strongly outperform the existing assets48 across a range of performance factors, such as heat rate, forced outage rate, and availability factor. 3. Battery storage is not limited from...
AI summary The text argues that new resources, such as diesel-fired units, outperform existing assets in performance metrics. It challenges NSPI's claim that battery storage's duration limitations prevent it from substituting firm capacity, citing examples like Florida Power & Light's solar-plus-storage project and Vistra's battery storage initiatives.
Bates White Comments On NSPI Final IRP Report underscore the importance of ensuring future procurement efforts solicit offers from the market to ensure the best and most timely pricing possible. The sensitivity results also show the import...
AI summary Bates White emphasizes the need for market-driven procurement to ensure cost-effective pricing and highlights the Reliability Tie's role in integrating renewables and maintaining system reliability. Sensitivity analyses show the Reliability Tie is prioritized in low-cost scenarios, while its absence leads to reliance on battery storage and synchronous condensers. This underscores the Reliability Tie's cost-efficiency in supporting high renewable penetration.