Topic:"Capacity Market Participation" in M10504

Near Term Firm Import Opportunities - The 2020 IRP tested the availability of up to 150MW of firm capacity available over the existing interconnections to New Brunswick and Newfoundland; these capacity options were components of the optima...

AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identified 150MW of firm capacity via interconnections to New Brunswick and Newfoundland as optimal. However, discussions with NB Power reveal ongoing unavailability of transmission capacity, prompting NS Power to seek technical solutions and advance commercial discussions for near-term firm imports ahead of winter 2023/24.

Combustion Turbine Update - The 2020 IRP found that significant Combustion Turbine (CT) additions were required, including under accelerated coal retirement and more stringent emissions reduction scenarios. - For example, Scenario 3.1C cum...

AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identified a need for significant Combustion Turbine (CT) additions in Nova Scotia, especially under accelerated coal retirement and stricter emissions scenarios. NS Power is evaluating CT deployment options and locations, considering gas supply and transmission needs, while also exploring alternatives like BESS and coal-to-gas conversions to reduce CT requirements by 2030.

Clarifications from the Action Plan Presentation - 1. Renewable to Retail . The presentation indicated that there was some RtR activity over the last year. Can NS Power share any information regarding that activity? - 2. Near-Term Firm Imp...

AI summary The document outlines four questions raised during a regulatory proceeding, focusing on NS Power's Renewable to Retail (RtR) activity, near-term firm imports, updates on Transmission Study Reports (TSR 411/412), and potential Newfoundland imports. The inquiries seek clarity on transmission capacity, supply sources, and infrastructure requirements.

Planning Environment Changes Maritime Link (ML) Base Block and Reliability - Nalcorfiled its "Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study 2022 Update" onOctober 3, 2022 which pointsto both: - On-Island capacity constraints in meeting Newfoundl...

AI summary Nalcor's 2022 study highlights on-island capacity constraints in NL and uncertainty around the Labrador Island Link's reliability, making additional Maritime Link imports unavailable. The 2020 IRP identified the Maritime Link as a potential resource, but near-term availability is uncertain.

CAPACITY ADDITIONS The optimized capacity additions highlight the transition of the power system to an increased penetration of variable renewable energy, backed by fast acting firm capacity resources (Battery and Combustion Turbine) as th...

AI summary The document discusses capacity additions in Nova Scotia's power system, emphasizing the integration of variable renewable energy with battery and combustion turbine resources. Fuel conversions (coal-to-gas, coal-to-oil) are highlighted as low-cost, reliable firm capacity sources during peak demand or resource unavailability, aligning with common industry observations.

GENERATION MIX The evergreen IRP modeling results demonstrate that annual generation profiles are increasingly decarbonized through the planning horizon in line with environmental policy changes in 2030 and 2035 (please refer toFigure 4)....

AI summary The IRP modeling highlights a decarbonized generation mix by 2035, driven by wind energy and grid-scale batteries, with peaking gas turbines. Wind generation increases across scenarios, but curtailment ranges 10–45% due to integration constraints. No Atlantic Loop scenarios show higher emissions but achieve over 90% reduction from 2005 levels.

LOAD AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY Figure 8 highlights the 26-year (NPVRR) with end effects by scenario and provides a comparison between scenarios to assess the impacts of the various load and energy efficiency assumptions modeled. The results de...

AI summary The analysis compares energy efficiency and load scenarios, showing Hybrid Peak (E2) scenarios reduce costs compared to base load (E1) scenarios. Base Plus and Modified Mid DSM scenarios yield higher NPVs than Base DSM. Accelerated Electrification scenarios achieve 2050 targets faster but require quicker capacity expansions. NS Power lacks cost estimates for Hybrid Peak program incentives.

Item 3c: Fast Acting Generating Capacity Initiate development of new fast-acting generating capacity resourcesto address growing demand, balance variable renewable generation, and maintain the reliability of the Nova Scotia system. Scope w...

AI summary Initiate development of new fast-acting generating capacity (300MW by 2027, 300-600MW by 2030) with fuel flexibility including hydrogen to balance renewables and maintain system reliability.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS – DRAFT RESULTS The following are high level key findings and insights from the draft results: - All scenarios modeled incorporate the addition of significant capacity of variable renewables resources, which will requir...

AI summary The draft results highlight the need for further study on variable renewables' system impacts, decreasing gas generation post-2030 coal phase-out, lower NPVRR with Atlantic Loop in-service dates, and increased curtailment with rising wind capacity. Optimized plans balance gas resources and emerging tech to meet 2035 net-zero targets.

CE1-E1-R2 NZ 2035-CURRENT POLICY AND TRENDS -NO ATLANTIC LOOP Preliminary Scenario Metrics and Evaluation 26 Year NPVRR ($MM 2025$) $19,263 Key Input Assumptions and Observations(as compared to CE1-E1-R1) Capacity Expansion 26 Year NPVRR w...

AI summary The scenario analysis shows higher NPVRR and emissions without the Atlantic Loop, with 750 MW SMR by 2050 and earlier gas capacity additions, leading to increased reliance on emitting generation.

GAS AND OIL RESOURCES - All scenarios sustain existing gas resources through the planning horizon, providing firm capacity but with declining energy output as additionalrenewable resources are added to the system - All scenarios select the...

AI summary All scenarios sustain existing gas resources through the planning horizon, with declining energy output as renewables expand. Coal units are converted to HFO operation by 2030, and 150-450 MW of new fast-acting gas resources are added to ensure firm capacity and balance variable renewable generation.

PLANNING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES ADDITIONAL FIRM IMPORTS AND RELIABILITY - Nalcor filed its "Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study 2022 Update" on October 3, 2022 which points to both: - o On-Island capacity constraints in meeting NL load re...

AI summary Nalcor's 2022 Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study highlights on-island capacity constraints and reliability issues with the Labrador Island Link (LIL), leading NS Power to assume the ML Block B resource is unavailable and adjust the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of the Nova Scotia Block from 98% to 95%.