Topic:"Capital Expenditures" in M08059

enously by Synapse—fixed O&M, sustaining capital costs, new build costs, incremental demand‐side management (DSM) costs, New Brunswick transmission costs, and Nova Scotia Maritime Link fixed payments. Fixed O&M is calculated by multiplying...

AI summary The text outlines cost components for energy planning, including fixed O&M, sustaining capital, new build, DSM, and transmission costs. It details calculation methods for each, such as annualizing capital costs and using nameplate capacity. Modeling scenarios in Plexos are discussed, focusing on capacity expansion, dispatch, and unit commitment under various sensitivities.

Wind Scen./ Sust CapCre NB Sens. # Sensitivity Name Load Capital dit Trans Comment Low Battery Cost Sensitivities 1‐LB Ref Low Battery Cost Ref Ref Ref No Med DSM High Wind Cap Cred 8‐LB Low Batt Cost Med DSM Ref High No 13‐LB Ref NB Trans...

AI summary The text presents sensitivity analyses for energy planning scenarios, including low battery costs, gas price variations, and forced retirements of power generation assets (Tufts Cove 3, Trenton 5). It also references updates to cost and availability models in energy planning tools like Plexos.

15.0 8.8 25 2030 4.50 20.0 8.8 30 19 Maritime Link Interim Cost Assessment M07718. 20 NSPI, response to discovery request DR‐15. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 17 Final Report Not...

AI summary The document discusses the available resource new build costs for NSPI, including wind, gas CC, gas CT, battery storage, and solar PV. Costs were annualized based on economic life, capital cost, and a 7% weighted average cost of capital for NSPI.

economic life of the units, the capital cost (in $2017/kW), and a weighted average cost of capital for NSPI (7 percent). Our modeling results include new build costs by unit and across each scenario. Table 5. New Build Resource Costs Resou...

AI summary The text provides details on new build resource costs for various energy generation technologies, including gas combined cycle, gas combustion turbine, wind, and battery storage, with specific costs, escalation rates, and economic lifespans. The data includes updated costs from NSPI and sensitivity analyses.

tlook report. NSPI provided the data to Synapse in Excel format. Table 6 contains the sustaining capital cost estimates. Table 6. Sustaining Capital Cost Estimate – by Unit ‐ $ Millions ($2017 Real)

AI summary The document references a Synapse report and mentions that NSPI provided data in Excel format. Table 6 includes sustaining capital cost estimates by unit in millions of dollars (2017 real).

.57 44.2 28.7 TC1 78 1.68 1.57 1.42 1.31 1.74 5.33 1.60 1.42 1.31 3.62 21.0 27.0 TC2 93 9.20 2.89 2.74 2.63 26.05 3.00 2.91 2.74 2.63 4.87 59.7 64.1 TC3 147 3.13 12.84 3.13 8.53 2.66 3.00 6.91 3.13 2.63 2.53 48.5 33.0 TC6 46 2.38 2.53 2.77...

AI summary The document presents annualized sustaining capital costs and discusses the use of 'solar plus storage' as an economic alternative resource option, citing reports from the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68371.pdf and “Evaluating the Technical and Economic Performance of PV Plus Storage Power Plants,” available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68737.pdf. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Ge...

AI summary The document discusses the modeling of sustaining capital costs and wind capacity credits in the context of NSPI's thermal generation and renewable resources. It highlights the treatment of sustaining capital expenditures and the use of different wind capacity credit values in various scenarios.

reflected in the model. Surplus Energy flows over the Maritime Link were modeled within Plexos using market price criteria, and the costs are included as part of the total interchange purchase costs. Sustaining Capital Costs Sustaining cap...

AI summary The document discusses modeling of surplus energy flows over the Maritime Link using Plexos and the inclusion of these costs in interchange purchase costs. It also outlines the method used to estimate sustaining capital costs based on NSPI's 2017 report and how these costs are adjusted in scenarios involving unit retirements. Additionally, it covers reference and medium DSM load scenarios and their impact on energy requirements and cost estimates.

Notation Scenario Name Load Capital CapCredit NB Trans RetirePath 1 NSPI Reference Ref Ref Ref Ref No No 2 Change Case Med DSM Med DSM Ref Ref No No 3 Change Case High DSM High DSM Ref Ref No No 4 Change Case Ref/HighSusCap Ref High Ref No...

AI summary The table outlines multiple regulatory scenarios (e.g., Med DSM, HighSusCap) with varying load, capital, and credit parameters. Each scenario combines different demand-side management (DSM) levels, capital credit thresholds, and transmission considerations, reflecting potential regulatory options under analysis.

course of the modeling. The PLEXOS modeling can proceed without having a firm estimate for these costs; the envelope of quantity reductions is the key input assumption. As noted, the mid DSM scenario includes ramping up the current energy...

AI summary The analysis explores mid and high DSM scenarios, emphasizing energy efficiency and demand response impacts on peak load reduction. Capital cost assumptions, wind capacity contributions, and sensitivity analyses are discussed to evaluate thermal unit retention economics and capacity expansion paths.

1,919 96 508 1,823 33 10,958 9,937 9,690 2032 2,357 153 16 220 2,138 443 31 1,914 96 539 1,819 32 10,956 9,863 9,640 2033 2,383 153 16 235 2,148 474 31 1,910 95 569 1,814 31 10,954 9,789 9,595 2034 2,410 153 16 251 2,159 505 31 1,905 95 60...

AI summary The text presents numerical data spanning years 2032–2042, including values with associated growth rates (CAGR '18-'27: 1.1% and 0.5%). The data likely represents projections or metrics related to energy, costs, or infrastructure, though thematic context is absent due to the lack of explanatory text.

Comments in Response to NSPI 4/13/2017 Technical Conference on Future Plan for Thermal Resources Synapse Energy Economics April 28, 2017 Introduction These comments are provided in response to the technical conference held at NSPI on April...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics comments on NSPI's plan to continue operating thermal steam units through 2030, except Lingan 2 (retiring in 2020). Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) will not retire in 2025 due to projected peak load increases, requiring additional sustaining capital expenditures beyond 2024.

e 1 (response to NS UARB IR‐6, Attachment 1, page 2) show planned expenditures only through 2024. If TUC1 is not retired in 2025, it is reasonable to expect additional sustaining capital requirements. Sustaining capital investment in the t...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's projected $445M in sustaining capital expenditures for its thermal fleet (2017-2026), noting uncertainty due to aging plants and lack of sensitivity analysis. Specific large capital injections ($10M-$15M) are highlighted for plants like Lingan 3/4 and Trenton 5/6. The 2014 IRP used a levelized approach rather than year-specific sustaining capital requirements.

ing capital investment. 1 NSPI Sustaining Capital Projections – Thermal Fleet, 2017‐2026

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's sustaining capital projections for its thermal fleet from 2017 to 2026, focusing on long-term investment planning for power generation infrastructure.

NOTE: Forecast as of 2016 10‐Year System Outlook Report. Actual Capital Filing for 2017 will be provided in 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan. Figure 12 Investment Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Grand Total...

AI summary The text presents a capital expenditure plan table spanning 2017–2026, detailing investments across categories like Biomass, CTs, and LIN projects. It references a 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report and notes the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan will provide actual figures.

ot designed to follow load to the degree expected over the coming years. The magnitude of this load following can be up to the full nameplate capacity of the wind on the system (approximately 600 MW). Retaining the thermal units offers fle...

AI summary NSPI proposes retaining thermal units for flexibility amid environmental regulations and cap-and-trade commitments, requiring $400M over ten years. Questions challenge the plan's customer advantage, wind capacity limits, alternative energy sources, capital forecasts, and renewable integration costs.

es with respect to environmental concerns in both the short and long term, and technological developments with respect to renewables and storage. This option typically takes about a year to complete. With respect to the second option, this...

AI summary The text outlines two options for addressing environmental and technological considerations: a comprehensive one-year plan and a six-month screening exercise to evaluate alternatives to NSPI’s coal plant operations. The author recommends the latter, suggesting it could identify more cost-effective solutions or necessitate adjustments to NSPI’s plan or further IRP work.

consensus building approach. We have experienced this in the 2013 Cost of Service Proceeding, the 2015‐2016 Renewable to Retail Proceeding and in recent Annual Capital Expenditure Plan proceedings. The Company proposes to begin this same t...

AI summary NS Power proposes a collaborative engagement process with stakeholders to enhance resource adequacy planning, referencing past proceedings like the 2013 Cost of Service and 2015-2016 Renewable to Retail. The approach aims to improve knowledge-sharing, clarify assumptions, and establish a long-term stakeholder framework for resource planning in Nova Scotia.

5 Appendix – Synapse Comments After April 2017 Technical Conference Introduction These comments are provided in response to the technical conference held at NSPI on April 13, 2017. They address a number of issues concerning the future plan...

AI summary NSPI plans to operate all thermal steam units except Lingan 2 through 2025/26, expecting continued operation through 2030. This contrasts with the 2014 IRP Action Plan, as Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) will remain operational past 2025 due to 2016 load forecasts requiring resource adequacy. Sustaining capital expenditures for TUC1 are only planned through 2024, raising concerns about future costs.

e 1 (response to NS UARB IR-6, Attachment 1, page 2) show planned expenditures only through 2024. If TUC1 is not retired in 2025, it is reasonable to expect additional sustaining capital requirements. Sustaining capital investment in the t...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's sustaining capital projections for its thermal fleet (2017-2026), noting significant uncertainty due to lack of sensitivity analysis and reliance on outdated data. Specific large capital injections for plants like Lingan 3 and Trenton 6 are highlighted, while the 2014 IRP's levelized approach is critiqued for not addressing year-specific sustaining capital needs.

ing capital investment. A-1 NSPI Sustaining Capital Projections – Thermal Fleet, 2017-2026

AI summary The document outlines Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) capital investment projections for its thermal fleet from 2017 to 2026, emphasizing sustained financial commitments to maintain and operate thermal generation assets over the decade.

NOTE: Forecast as of 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report. Actual Capital Filing for 2017 will be provided in 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan. Figure 12 Investment Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Grand Total...

AI summary The document presents a 10-year capital expenditure forecast from 2017 to 2026, detailing investments in categories like Biomass, CTs, LIN0-LIN4, and LMs. It references the 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report and notes that the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan will provide actual figures.

25 $ 8,912,500 TUC3 $ 824,375 $ 793,125 $ 3,280,625 $ 868,125 $ 1,255,625 $ 524,375 $ 768,125 $ 543,125 $ 868,125 $ 505,625 $ 10,231,250 TUC6 $ 1,822,500 $ 1,997,500 $ 4,847,500 $ 2,297,500 $ 4,747,500 $ 1,822,500 $ 2,197,500 $ 1,897,500 $...

AI summary The text presents financial figures related to capital investments and discusses how the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan influences Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) thermal fleet economics by affecting peak demand and capacity contributions from alternative resources.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures for fossil-fueled plants, conducting system studies for higher wind penetration, regional coordination with Newfoundland and New Brunswick, evaluating wind capacity value, exploring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity addition.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity potential. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units beyond 2030, citing gaps in their 2014 IRP analysis regarding capital expenditures and renewable energy cost impacts.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] July 17, 2017 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wat...

AI summary The Industrial Group submits comments on Synapse's Terms of Reference for M08059, recommending sensitivity analyses for energy efficiency and capital scenarios. They suggest running base, high, and low load scenarios and varying sustaining capital levels to better assess generation utilization and optimization.

ST Plexos module to assess customer cost and rate impact? Assumptions NS Power requests that clarity be provided for the following items relating to the assumptions to be used for the modelling:  How will Synapse distinguish critical inpu...

AI summary NS Power seeks clarity on assumptions for ST Plexos modelling, including critical vs. non-critical inputs, demand-side scenarios, storage technologies, capital sustaining assumptions, natural gas pricing, transmission configurations, carbon pricing rationale, and wind capacity value adjustments.

tem and could present reliability risks without additional system resources to respond to contingencies. Rescaling of this assumption or consideration of reliability implications would be required. Regarding the “medium” and “high” cases f...

AI summary The text discusses reliability risks from wind capacity assumptions and critiques the GE study's methodology for wind generation. NS Power advocates using multi-year data for accurate wind capacity value ranges, while Synapse highlights uncertainties in capital expenditure projections for aging plants, citing specific large capital injection needs.

ge capital injection levels (e.g., $10 million, Lingan 3, 2020; $10 million, Lingan 4, 2024; $13 million, Point Aconi, 2021; $9 million, Trenton 5, 2020; $15 million, Trenton 6, 2025). NS Power notes that the larger-than average capital in...

AI summary NS Power explains that higher capital injections for specific power plants (e.g., Lingan 3, Trenton 6) reflect major outage intervals tied to unit utilization. Synapse critiques the 2014 IRP for using a levelized approach to sustaining capital costs, ignoring year-to-year variations, and for failing to adjust surplus capacity assumptions in different plans, leading to significant disparities in outcomes.

I Thermal Resources Through and Possibly Beyond 2030 Synapse Energy Economics July 7August 1, 2017 Introduction The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board’s May 5, 2017 letter in M08059 - Generation Utilization and Optimization indicated an...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board requested Synapse Energy Economics to analyze optimal utilization of NSPI’s thermal generation fleet, considering sustaining capital expenditures, storage options, and wind capacity contributions. The study focuses on economic impacts for ratepayers using the Plexos modeling system.

Mid- Report. NovemberDecember/January 4 These may already be accounted for in the capped emission requirements for the Province. 5 Technical Conference Late Presentation Slides. January/FebruaryNovember Modeling refinements Post technical...

AI summary Synapse's comments following the 2017 technical conference address NSPI's thermal resource plans, referencing the 2014 IRP Action Plan and NS UARB's 2016 information requests regarding NSPI's 10-Year System Outlook Report. The discussion focuses on sustaining capital expenditures for the thermal fleet.

o reflect the concerns expressed in the set of NS UARB information requests (October 2016) in regards to NSPI’s 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report. Summary – NSPI’s Outlook on the Thermal Steam Fleet NSPI plans for continuing operation of...

AI summary NSPI plans to continue operating its thermal steam fleet through 2030, except for retired Lingan 2, citing resource adequacy needs. Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) is projected to remain operational beyond 2025, contradicting 2014 IRP assumptions. Sustaining capital for thermal units is estimated at $445M (2017-2026), with discrepancies noted between 2017 ACE plan projections and current forecasts.

s seen in the table for 2017; the difference for that year was explained in the ACE plan, but critically, no additional information was available on the confidence of the projections for future years. NSPI has not provided any sensitivity...

AI summary The text highlights concerns about NSPI's lack of sensitivity analysis for sustaining capital expenditure projections, noting significant uncertainty due to aging plants and large capital injections in specific years. It criticizes the 2014 IRP's levelized approach for not addressing year-to-year sustaining capital requirements for steam plants.

ing capital investment. A-9 NSPI Sustaining Capital Projections – Thermal Fleet, 2017-2026

AI summary The document presents NSPI's sustaining capital projections for its thermal fleet from 2017 to 2026, focusing on long-term investment planning for power generation infrastructure.

NOTE: Forecast as of 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report. Actual Capital Filing for 2017 will be provided in 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan. Figure 12 Investment Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Grand Total...

AI summary The document outlines a 10-year capital expenditure forecast for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI), detailing projected investments across biomass, transmission, and line items (LIN0-LIN4) from 2017 to 2026, with a focus on biomass projects and infrastructure upgrades. The 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan will provide actual figures.

son across plan results, in this case because the resulting surplus capacity across the plans varied significantly. Among the best-performing candidate resource plans were those with higher levels of A-9 Optimizing sustaining capital expen...

AI summary The text discusses optimizing sustaining capital expenditures by evaluating alternative capacity sources, including energy efficiency, wind resources, and demand response. It emphasizes the need to assess costs of retaining coal plant capacity versus alternatives like storage, hydro, gas, and demand-side management programs.

question from the Board as part of the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745), NSPI indicated that storage options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.10 However, this peak demand reduction through DSM, whic...

AI summary NSPI's 2017 Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745) stated energy storage was not cost-competitive. However, demand-side management (DSM) reduced peak demand, creating surplus capacity. An iterative modeling approach could have retired coal units, lowering costs. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's 2016 storage analysis are referenced, alongside synthetic inertia as a potential grid stability solution.

1. Confirm costs and achievable potential NS Power supports this recommendation. for incremental energy efficiency. As seen, NS Power believes that a new DSM energy efficiency displaces higher cost potential study should be completed to en...

AI summary NS Power supports recommendations to evaluate energy efficiency displacement of costly energy sources, develop cost curves for demand response, assess bulk battery storage economics, and monitor thermal fleet capital costs. The IRP must incorporate these analyses through transparent UARB processes.

lan (M08350): Page 3 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 4 of 9 D. Friis Both the CA and the SBA comment in their respective Closing Submissio...

AI summary The CA and SBA argue for an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to inform capital expenditures and DSM. NS Power agrees on the value of an IRP but defers action until after the Generation Utilization and Optimization proceeding (M08059) concludes, citing pending clarity on federal emissions rules and provincial cap-and-trade requirements.

~ Blackburn Law June 21, 2018 VIA EMAIL Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M08059 - Generation Utilization and Op...

AI summary The Small Business Advocate (SBA) highlights concerns about Nova Scotia Power's (NSPI) continued capital expenditures on fossil fuel generation, arguing that without analysis of economic obsolescence, small businesses may face unnecessary costs and stranded assets. The SBA emphasizes sector transformation, including renewable energy adoption and the Maritime Link transmission line, which may render older fossil fuel plants obsolete.

A does not have any concerns about NSPI spending resources and time on these recommendations, but submits that they should not be given enhanced priority as a result of being referenced in the Report. The SBA also submits that it would be...

AI summary The SBA submits that NSPI should track investment in ACE Plans for thermal generating units and highlights three key findings: most thermal units warrant investment through 2030, increased sustaining capital costs could render some units obsolete, and alternative resource costs will impact thermal fleet economics. The SBA recommends a comprehensive IRP in 2019 instead of hearings.

te that our analysis was not an IRP, it is impossible to untangle the assessment of thermal fleet economics from resource planning assumptions, the Small Business Advocate’s comments notwithstanding.4 The SBA notes concern over our analysi...

AI summary The analysis, not an IRP, integrates thermal fleet economics with resource planning. The SBA criticizes reliance on long-term metrics and common costs, while the response emphasizes long-term capital recovery and revenue requirements across scenarios, noting that excluding common costs would exaggerate cost savings for low-cost scenarios.

es in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. [Note that EfficiencyOne has been directed to file a DSM Potential Study by July 31,2019.] 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak-loa...

AI summary The text outlines requirements for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to include fossil fuel and import resources, mandates a DSM Potential Study by EfficiencyOne, and emphasizes analyzing demand response costs, battery storage economics, and sustaining capital costs for thermal generation. The IRP must reflect diverse resource options and quantify costs for peak-load reduction and energy storage.

capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...

AI summary The text discusses capital costs (6.5–10.4% of NPVRR) and outlines requirements for integrating wind energy into NSPI's system, including transmission upgrades and intertie completion. It emphasizes joint dispatch coordination with Maritime Provinces and analysis of Tufts Cove thermal units for economic retirement modeling.