Topic:"Cost Effectiveness" in M08059

ization and Utilization study is to determine the extent to which it is cost‐effective to ratepayers to retain Nova Scotia Power Inc.’s (NSPI) thermal (steam) fleet through, and possibly beyond, 2030. The thermal fleet consists of the Tuft...

AI summary The study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retaining Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s thermal fleet through 2030, considering its oil, gas, and coal units. It uses Plexos modeling for capacity expansion and production cost analysis, factoring in emissions targets and grid constraints. Lingan 2's retirement depends on the Nova Scotia Block's service via Maritime Link, expected mid-2020.

ia the Maritime Link, is in service. This is currently estimated to occur midway through 2020.11 1.2. Terms of Reference The Terms of Reference for the Study included the following objective: The main objective of the analysis will be to d...

AI summary The study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030, comparing retention costs to alternatives like retirement, capacity utilization, and replacement resources. The analysis includes sensitivity testing and stakeholder feedback rounds, with finalized terms of reference dated August 1, 2017.

Appendix 5.1 Terms of Reference Response to Stakeholder Comments on Proposed Terms of Reference Plexos Optimization Analysis / NSPI Thermal Fleet Retention August 1, 2017 Synapse has reviewed comments received in response to the June 29, 2...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics adjusted the Terms of Reference for a Plexos Optimization Analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet through 2030. Key changes include extended stakeholder input periods, scenario analysis with varied assumptions, and clarification that the study is a planning exercise, not an operational assessment. The analysis will compare thermal fleet retention against alternatives like retirement and renewable integration.

s options for possible sensitivities, and includes comments. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Modeling Plan and Key Input Assumptions 4 Appendix 5.6 REDACTED

AI summary The document outlines Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s modeling plan and key input assumptions, including considerations for sensitivities. Appendix 5.6 is marked as redacted, suggesting sensitive or confidential information.

nvolved longer retention of coal units” (4/13/2017 presentation, slide 27). However, the 2014 IRP did not rigorously examine whether or not longer retention of the coal fleet was economically optimal. Instead, the 2014 IRP analyses include...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) inadequately evaluated the economic optimality of retaining coal units, as it failed to account for surplus capacity differences between resource plans. The analysis used sustaining capital cost assumptions without adjusting for surplus capacity retirement, leading to unsupported conclusions about coal retention.

sessment Guides, except contingencies are not Methodology included [1] Cost  Energy Storage Integration Council (ESIC) Cost Tool and Template was used to identify scope of installation costs. [2] – Tool was developed to Results Cost provi...

AI summary The text outlines the use of the Energy Storage Integration Council (ESIC) Cost Tool to identify installation costs for energy storage projects. It emphasizes the exclusion of operational and maintenance costs from the analysis and highlights the importance of clear communication in cost evaluations. The methodology involved data collection and cost metric evaluation, with project scope inclusions/exclusions detailed in a template.

D a ™ Blackburn Law April 27, 2017 VIA EMAIL Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax NS B3J 383 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M07540 — Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2...

AI summary Blackburn Law comments on Nova Scotia Power's 2016 System Outlook Report, arguing that retaining coal plants as peaking units during winter high-demand periods, despite reduced coal burning, still poses environmental risks from coal pile management, dust control, and ash handling. NS Power defends this approach as economically viable, though it plans to retire Lingan 2 post-Maritime Link. The SBA highlights environmental and reliability concerns.

orated into the study: 1. Revenue Requirement Minimization - Primary 2. Annual Average Price of Electricity 3. Environmental / Emissions T: 902-835-8544 F: 902-835-4310 E: [email protected] www.blackburnlaw.ca SUITE 231 BEDFORD HOUSE, S...

AI summary The document highlights concerns from the Small Business Advocate (SBA) regarding the methodology of a study, questioning its ability to produce informative results. It also notes that the Terms of Reference outline a stakeholder engagement process but do not clarify how input will be incorporated into the study.

MCINNES David S. MacDougall Direct +1 (902) 444 8561 [email protected] COOPER 1969 Upper Water Street Suite 1300 Purdy's Wharf Tower II Halifax NS Canada B3J 2V1 Tel +1 (902) 425 6500 I Fax +1 (902) 425 6350 Our File: 1003...

AI summary Port Hawkesbury Paper Limited Partnership (PHP) submits comments on the Terms of Reference (TOR) for Synapse Energy Economic's analysis of retaining NSPI thermal resources through 2030. PHP acknowledges the TOR's thoroughness but notes specific comments for Synapse and the Board's consideration, referencing Matter M08059.

portunity to share schedules and work towards a mutually agreeable schedule that allows NS Power to provide Synapse with what it needs on a reasonable timeline that permits it to manage accordingly. NS Power believes that at a minimum, the...

AI summary NS Power requests a three-month extension to the timeline for Synapse's work, citing the need for stakeholder engagement and adequate modelling. It emphasizes the need for clear technical objectives in the TOR, particularly regarding cost-effectiveness criteria and definitions of terms like 'low,' 'medium,' and 'high' in Synapse's matrix.

Response to Stakeholder Comments on Proposed Terms of Reference Plexos Optimization Analysis / NSPI Thermal Fleet Retention August 1, 2017 Synapse has reviewed comments received in response to the June 29, 2017 Proposed Terms of Reference1...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics revised the Proposed Terms of Reference for a Plexos Optimization Analysis on NSPI’s thermal fleet retention through 2030, addressing stakeholder feedback. The analysis aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal generation assets.

roach and input assumption sets after review of comments by stakeholders and discussion with NS UARB staff. 5) Allow for another round of modeling after the technical conference, if needed. The overall timeframe for the analysis and the in...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics outlines a planning exercise to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal resources through 2030, acknowledging limitations in modeling due to timeframe constraints and the need for stakeholder input. The analysis prioritizes major power system constraints like reserve margins and transmission limits.

s modeling system to assess optimal use of NSPI’s thermal fleet, with data files and technical information concerning system stability and operating constraints provided to Synapse by NSPI. Objective The main objective of the analysis will...

AI summary The analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet through 2030, comparing retention costs to alternatives like retirement, capacity utilization, and replacement resources. Synapse will use Plexos modeling to assess optimal resource paths over 20-25 years, considering transmission reinforcement and input assumption sensitivities.

-levelized-cost-of- storage-v20.pdf, and the Executive Summary is also available at https://www.lazard.com/media/438041/lazard- lcos-20-executive-summary.pdf. 10 Response to NS UARB IR-37, M07745. A-9 conclusion was based on an assessment...

AI summary The response critiques the use of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for storage, arguing it fails to capture value from regulation/frequency response and capacity flexibility. It cites EPRI and Lazard studies showing declining lithium-ion costs, emphasizing current rapid cost reductions.

odeling to be done after presentation of their draft report. With respect to other comments filed by interested parties, Synapse provided the following general response: August 10, 2017 D. Friis The overall timeframe for the analysis and t...

AI summary Synapse outlines limitations in modeling thermal fleet retention cost-effectiveness due to planning vs. operational scope. NS Power, CA, SBA, IG, and PHP provide feedback on study parameters, stakeholder alignment, modeling clarity, and input opportunities.

for the IG provided comments respecting specific considerations for the modeling plan runs and scope of work and milestones. Finally, PHP’s comments focused on opportunities for stakeholder input. While Synapse has adjusted the timeline to...

AI summary NS Power expresses concerns about Synapse's lack of response to stakeholder comments on the modeling plan, emphasizing the need for transparency, technical feasibility, and alignment with customer interests. It stresses the importance of a clear process for evaluating grid transitions from coal to alternative solutions while balancing affordability and reliability.

Fueled Thermal Fleet To and Beyond 2030 – M08059, Synapse Energy Economics Inc. (the Synapse Report), May 1, 2018, page 1. 3 Supra, The Synapse Report, page 2. 4 The Synapse Report, page 3. Page 3 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION RE...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics Inc. concludes that retaining Nova Scotia Power's coal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective for rate-payers, though uncertainty remains about the carbon regime's impact. NS Power expects clarity on carbon policy by late 2018, enabling an Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) exercise in 2019, contingent on updated demand-side management (DSM) studies.

respecting these issues. Conclusion The Synapse Report confirms that it is cost-effective to customers to retain NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. As stated above, NS Power’s comments are not to be taken as an end...

AI summary The Synapse Report concludes retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. NS Power acknowledges the report addresses the Board’s original questions but disputes its assumptions and modeling. They oppose a hearing on the report, advocating instead for proceeding to the next IRP and implementing the report’s nine recommendations.

r 3, 2017 Bob Fagan Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. 485 Massachusetts Avenue Suite 2 Cambridge MA 02139 Re: Key Input Assumptions & Modeling Plan for Plexos Optimization Analysis Dear Mr. Fagan: In correspondence dated August 22, 2017, the...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) approved Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s amended Terms of Reference (TOR) for analyzing the cost-effectiveness of retaining Nova Scotia Power's thermal fleet through 2030. Synapse seeks stakeholder input on its modeling plan comparing retention costs with alternative resource plans.

bon reduction requirements, federal equivalency and the operation of the Maritime Link. With regard to the study framework proposed by Synapse, the Company suggests consideration of the following: • Whether the period of study needs to be...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) questions Synapse's proposed 25-year study framework, raising concerns about resource availability (e.g., NB transmission, battery storage), uncertainty in federal/provincial regulations, and the need for clarity on DSM program selection criteria. NSP also notes the Board's planned 2018 DSM hearing and lack of reference plan criteria.

ity should be provided on what information will be used to determine what is “cost-effective to ratepayers”. Consistent with the foregoing, the Company submits that the criteria should reflect that: i. The selected reference plan should fa...

AI summary NS Power outlines criteria for selecting a reference plan, emphasizing near-term certainty, existing asset effectiveness, and affordability. They advocate for shorter-term modeling to align with coal unit retention goals by 2030 and suggest updates to Synapse's analysis approach.

the extent to which it is cost‐effective to ratepayers to retain NSPI’s thermal (steam) fleet through, and possibly beyond, 2030. At page two of the Draft Report the following is provided: Using reference scenario load levels from NSPI’s 2...

AI summary The analysis concludes that retaining NSPI’s coal fleet through 2030 is the most cost-effective option for ratepayers, based on Synapse’s modeling using 2017 load forecasts, wind capacity scenarios, and DSM components. Retention is indicated even with increased wind generation and higher sustaining capital costs for thermal sources.

tive option for rate payers is the retention of the coal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. Synapse confirmed this interpretation of the results at the Technical Conference on March 28, 2018. The Draft Report circulated on March 2, 2...

AI summary NS Power argues that retaining the coal fleet until 2030 is the lowest-cost option, confirmed by Synapse at a technical conference. The Draft Report lacks a conclusion on the Board’s objective, but NS Power expects the Final Report to affirm this. Uncertainty around Nova Scotia’s carbon regime and federal/provincial policy clarity will influence long-term planning, with a potential 2019 IRP exercise pending policy resolution.

update its runs that used the incremental DSM assumption with the new information to be provided by E1. At one point, Synapse suggested this might be done by sensitivity analysis. In its comments circulated on April 9, 2018, E1 provided it...

AI summary The document discusses updating DSM cost assumptions in Synapse's modeling using E1's High Case data, which reflects a $0.60/kWh energy unit cost. NS Power agrees to incorporate E1's updated costs for accurate program evaluation, rejecting sensitivity analysis due to untested new information. The High Case is deemed most relevant for assessing 2% incremental energy efficiency.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] June 20, 2018 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wat...

AI summary The Industrial Group supports NSPI's position that retaining the coal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective and necessary for firm capacity, citing Synapse's analysis. The report indicates that under specific parameters, the thermal fleet (excluding certain units) should be retained, with modeling showing financial soundness across scenarios.

James R. Gogan Direct Dial: (902) 563-5920 E-Mail: [email protected] File Ref: 41736-52 June 21, 2018 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3P6 Attention: Doreen Friis, Regulatory Affa...

AI summary EfficiencyOne comments on Synapse's Final Report regarding the cost-effectiveness of demand-side management (DSM) in Nova Scotia's Generation Utilization and Optimization proceeding. The analysis shows that moderate DSM levels remain cost-effective despite higher initial costs, supported by updated unit cost data from a 2013 DSM Potential Study revision.