N-1Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045
26 passages
Figure 9-2. EE BNI 2045 Cumulative Achievable Potential Sensitivity (GWh, net at generator) ................ 85 Figure 10-1. DR Potential Assessment Steps .......................................................................................
AI summary The text lists figures analyzing energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) potential in Nova Scotia, including customer segmentation, peak demand forecasts, battery capacity, vehicle adoption, and DR options. Figures focus on technical assessments, market segmentation, and scenario-based projections for EE and DR programs.
gross potential is advantageous because it permits a reviewer to more easily calculate net potential when new information about net-to-gross ratios or changing end use intensities become available. 1 Demand Response analysis results are pr...
AI summary Navigant Consulting conducted a bottom-up analysis to estimate demand response (DR) potential in Nova Scotia, using data from EfficiencyOne and other sources. The analysis involved five steps and provided input for the DRSim™ model to calculate total DR potential across the province.
udy for 2021-2045 E. 2.2.1 Demand Response Investment Levels Figure ES-14 summarizes the annual program investment for cost-effective DR options in the base case. The results indicate the following: • The program investment for DLC increas...
AI summary The text discusses the investment trends for demand response (DR) programs from 2021 to 2045. It highlights how program investments for DLC, CPP, and BNI curtailment vary over time due to factors like program life cycles, technology enablement, and customer participation. Costs are influenced by equipment, incentives, and marketing efforts.
greater savings potential, primarily from CPP. The low scenario costs are lower than the base scenario costs due to lower participation levels and lower per participant incentives and marketing costs. The annual portfolio costs (in nominal...
AI summary The document outlines the projected costs and savings potential of demand response (DR) programs in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It compares low, base, and high scenarios, showing increasing annual costs and varying levels of achievable MW potential and peak load reduction. The high scenario demonstrates greater savings potential, primarily from Critical Peak Pricing (CPP).
brium market share, behavioural measures, investment and incentive strategy, re-participation, and model calibration. Section 7 – discusses the Reference Forecast Approach and scenario configuration. Section 8 – presents the Energy Efficie...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology and findings of a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It covers market potential approaches, sensitivity analysis, demand response methodologies, and cost-effectiveness results across various sectors and customer classes.
site visits (see Appendix B) • ENS program evaluation reports • NS Power end use intensity-based forecasts (Load Forecast Models) • Previous Nova Scotia DSM potential studies Where Nova Scotia-specific information was not available, Naviga...
AI summary Navigant used various data sources, including EfficiencyOne and Nova Scotia Power's models, to estimate energy consumption and develop customer sector segmentation. The segmentation was developed in collaboration with EfficiencyOne and the DSM Advisory Group and reflects the DSMSim™ model's approach to representing efficiency measures.
orically not been included in programs, but may exclude certain historical measures as well. This discrepancy can cause calibrated base year potential to be lower or higher than historic program data. To obtain close agreement with Efficie...
AI summary Navigant calibrated the DSMSimTM model to align with EfficiencyOne’s historic savings data by adjusting parameters like incentive levels and technology diffusion coefficients. A backcasting exercise was conducted using historical data on savings and installations for specific measures to validate the model's accuracy.
EfficiencyOne’s Historical Navigant Simulated Source: Navigant Analysis Achievements Backcast ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 59 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 7. REFERENCE FORECAST APP...
AI summary The document outlines various scenarios for energy efficiency and demand response in Nova Scotia, including a Max Achievable Scenario with 0-year payback and 200% marketing effect, a Mid Scenario with half the reference payback and 150% marketing effect, and a Low Scenario with double the reference payback. These scenarios were discussed with the DSM Advisory Group.
ype 6. Conduct scenario analysis and present DR potentials, annual costs and cost-effectiveness results by scenario Figure 10-1. DR Potential Assessment Steps •Characterize market for DR potential estimation: Number of customers Step 1: Ma...
AI summary The text outlines the steps for conducting a demand response (DR) potential assessment, starting with market characterization, developing baseline projections, defining DR options, and analyzing scenarios. The process involves estimating DR potentials, costs, and cost-effectiveness across different customer segments and scenarios.
ted winter peak demand by customer class and segment over the potential analysis period. The baseline projections aimed to define and forecast customer data for the study period, similar to the market 16 These business types were sourced f...
AI summary This text outlines the methodology for projecting customer counts and winter peak demand by customer class and building type, using data from 2018 as a baseline. It details steps to disaggregate and blend customer counts based on various factors, including rate classes and business types.
Page 90 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 type and end use. The primary data sources for developing these estimates were 8760 system data, forecasted retail sales data, end use model results fr...
AI summary The document discusses the development of winter peak demand forecasts by customer class and building type using data from NSP and other sources. Three scenarios (low, base, mid) are considered, with higher energy efficiency savings leading to lower peak demand projections. The peak period definition differs from the EE study.
BNI Curtailment- Water Heating Control Water Heating BNI Curtailment- Industrial Total Facility BTM Battery Control BTM Battery Control Batteries EV Charging Control EV Charging Control EV CPP with enabling technology Critical Peak Pricing...
AI summary The text discusses various demand-side management (DSM) options for curtailing energy use, including Direct Load Control (DLC) for residential and small BNI customers, BNI Curtailment for large BNI customers, and BTM battery control for all customer classes. It also mentions EV charging control and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with and without enabling technology.
Page 116 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 11.7 Demand Response Snapback Effects The previous discussions on potential estimates only included demand reductions during the DR event period. For...
AI summary The document discusses demand response (DR) snapback effects, particularly in DLC programs, where customers increase thermostat settings after DR events, leading to potential increases in evening peak demand that may offset initial demand reductions.
combinations of these levels of granularity • Powerful sensitivity and scenario analysis capability to identify key assumptions and largest leverage points • Provides histograms of top-saving measures, scatter plots to view savings versus...
AI summary The document outlines the use of a modeling tool with sensitivity analysis and scenario capabilities to evaluate energy efficiency measures. It references the 2020-2022 DSM Plan and the 2018 Potential Study Update, targeting a Total Resource Cost (TRC) threshold of 1.0 for economic potential and 0.7 TRC for achievable potential.
with technical, economic and achievable potential for 2021-2045 (25 years) 3 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 5 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A The specific activities involv...
AI summary The document outlines the process for developing baseline energy use, end use saturation, and sales forecasts as part of a study on Nova Scotia's energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021 to 2045. It emphasizes the importance of market characterization in the study.
Load Forecast 1. Energy forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts 2. Demand forecast Customer Accounts Forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts Customer Demographics Nova Scotia customer surveys and other primary and secondary sources Measure-level...
AI summary The document outlines the inputs and assumptions used in energy and demand forecasting by Nova Scotia Power, including fuel shares, equipment shares, inflation rates, discount rates, and retail electricity rates. It also mentions the use of past program evaluations and line loss factors from DSM programs.
regated electricity consumption (at each level) is reasonable and well aligned with expectations. Figure 4. Illustrative Breakdown of Energy Sales Forecast Based on Navigant’s experience conducting energy efficiency potential studies, we c...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of aggregating electricity consumption data by customer segments and end uses in energy efficiency potential studies. It highlights the need for appropriate segmentation to avoid unnecessary complexity and ensure alignment with data resources and program goals.
system peak demand o Number and type of customers o Sector-level energy and demand requirements o Net energy and system-peak demand savings, at the generator, of energy efficiency measures (after free-ridership, spillover, and interactive...
AI summary The document discusses the development of technical potential for energy efficiency and demand response measures, including system peak demand, customer data, and energy savings calculations. It outlines how energy savings can be characterized based on the type of measure, such as fixed savings for condensing water heaters or percentage-based savings for automated building controls.
segment consumption or per square foot; and, lastly, measures such as industrial ventilation heat recovery are well-suited for estimating energy savings as a percentage of end use consumption. The DSMSimTM model can appropriately handle sa...
AI summary The text discusses methods for estimating energy savings using the DSMSimTM model, focusing on technical potential calculations based on measure replacement types. It highlights differences in calculation approaches for retrofit, replace-on-burnout, and new construction measures, emphasizing the importance of considering future codes and standards in baseline assumptions.
wever, new construction technical potential is driven by equipment installations in new building stock rather than by equipment in existing building stock. 5 New building stock is added to keep up with forecasted growth in total building s...
AI summary The text explains how new construction technical potential is calculated, focusing on the addition of new building stock to replace demolished buildings and accommodate growth. The calculation involves annual incremental technical potential, which is determined by new buildings, measure density, and savings per measure.
Page 19 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A the economic measure that provides the greatest savings potential is included in the summation of economic potential. This approach en...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology for calculating economic potential using the DSMSimTM model, which screens DSM measures based on a TRC threshold of 1.0 and integrates technical potential results to estimate economic savings. The model ensures no double-counting and provides outputs by cost-binned groups as needed.
This section presents the approach to calculating achievable potential, which is fundamentally more complex than the calculation of technical or economic potential. The potential study will estimate the annual and cumulative achievable pot...
AI summary The document outlines a method for calculating achievable energy efficiency (EE) potential by analyzing up to five scenarios with varying incentives. The process involves simulating market adoption of energy-efficient technologies, focusing on equilibrium market share and dynamic approaches. The study will consider stakeholder feedback and be limited to five scenarios due to budget and timeline constraints.
Appendix A Figure 12. Example – Payback Acceptance Curves Source: Navigant, 2015 Since the payback time of a technology can change over time; as technology costs and/or energy costs change over time, the equilibrium market share can also c...
AI summary The text discusses the dynamic nature of equilibrium market share in the context of technology adoption, noting that it changes over time due to varying technology and energy costs. It describes two approaches for calculating the approach to equilibrium market share: one for retrofit and new technologies using an enhanced Bass diffusion model, and another for ROB measures.
• Fourth, we draw on the internal stakeholders to provide valuable insights and perspectives on the results. In the program development process, we will solicit input to help guide and shape the set of programs to be considered in the DR p...
AI summary The text discusses the development of program costs for Demand Response (DR) programs, including administrative costs and customer incentives. It mentions the use of shared costs across programs, economies of scale, and collaboration with E1 and Navigant to ensure accurate cost assumptions and levelized cost calculations.
ticipation forecasts by customer segment • Number of participants in DR programs in different DR programs by market segment • Per customer load impacts (either specified • Winter demand reductions and energy in terms of kW reduction per pa...
AI summary The text outlines key metrics and considerations for demand response (DR) programs, including participation forecasts, customer load impacts, attrition assumptions, and cost-benefit analyses. It emphasizes the importance of evaluating technology costs, incentive levels, and avoided energy and demand costs in different market segments for Nova Scotia.
183 112 20 51 104 71 51 48 45 44 61 38 59 108 42 51 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 51 of 51 Appendix C: Demand Response Model Inputs Filed Electronically This page is intentionally left blank Appendix D: De...
AI summary The document contains appendices related to demand response and energy efficiency models, including inputs, outputs, and loadshape disaggregation, all filed electronically and left intentionally blank.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
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As of 2016, NS Power has calculated avoided transmission and avoided distribution costs and 26 shared them with EfficiencyOne and the DSMAG. Along with the figures themselves, NS Power 27 has shared a general description of the method to d...
AI summary NS Power has shared avoided transmission and distribution costs with EfficiencyOne and the DSMAG since 2016, including a general description of the method used to develop these estimates, but not the detailed calculations. The information is referenced in a 2015 ACEEE report by Baatz.
1 To maintain the fidelity of the DSM Potential Study, EfficiencyOne strongly recommends NS 2 Power consider the above approach. 3 4 On slide 11, NS Power also indicates that the DSM Potential Study cases are assumed to include: 5 • Cost-e...
AI summary EfficiencyOne recommends that NS Power adjust the DSM Potential Study to ensure accuracy, clarifying that it only includes programmatic DSM impacts. Factors like consumer behavior, technology, and energy codes are excluded via net energy savings and sub-models, while other agencies' involvement in DSM is deemed immaterial in Nova Scotia.
1 9. Demand Response 2 Upon reviewing the Assumptions for Demand Response (DR), EfficiencyOne has concern 3 associated with separating individual DR options from each of three DR cases analyzed as part of 4 the DSM Potential Study, as sugg...
AI summary EfficiencyOne raises concerns about the methodology used to separate individual demand response (DR) options from three DR cases in the DSM Potential Study. They argue that DR programs are interrelated and that disaggregating them leads to unreliable potential estimates. EfficiencyOne recommends modeling the three DR Potential cases as a single trajectory.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix I Page 43 of 44 NS Power Interim Modeling Results Stakeholder Feedback (May 2020) No. Topic Comment NS Power Response E1-6 Demand A recommendation that only one demand response NS Power has match...
AI summary The document discusses stakeholder feedback on NS Power's interim modeling results, focusing on demand response (DR) cases from the 2019 DSM Potential Study. Stakeholders question whether NS Power will maintain the continuous 25-year nature of DR cases and how generated DR cases will compete against cases from the Potential Study.
th as a contingency event. If the AC intertie were in service but at a lower MW level, the results would be at least as good, or indeed better. In summary, in relation to the minimum SIR requirement: The minimum level of 3,266 MW is not...
AI summary The text discusses the minimum SIR requirement, suggesting it may be overly conservative based on the PSC and IRP studies, and notes that lower import levels on the AC intertie would reduce the SIR requirement. It also highlights significant and prolonged changes in demand projections due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which differ from recovery timelines in other countries.
mports on the AC resource plan. intertie. At times of lower import levels, the SIR requirement would be expected to be much lower. Monitor industry developments around synthetic inertia. Load forecast NF-04 Covid effects are too severe and...
AI summary The document discusses load forecast adjustments due to prolonged pandemic effects, suggesting a sensitivity period of 2-5 years instead of 10 years. It also mentions monitoring synthetic inertia developments and the impact of import levels on the SIR requirement.
P a g e 42 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 123 of 125 Category Participant Comment NS Power Response stakeholder engagement has improved the overall process. NS Power agrees with the modifications to Action Plan Item...
AI summary Efficiency One comments that affordability discussions should remain within DSM planning and criticizes the rate impacts methodology as flawed. NS Power agrees with modifications to Action Plan Item 2e and updated the Final Report accordingly, stating that affordability is a criteria for evaluating DSM procurement.
n of the Short- requirements. A DR program with a target final Term Action Plan, including the treatment of plant nameplate capacity of approximately 75 MW is retirements, demand response, and DSM avoided cost shown to have value across al...
AI summary The text discusses the economic value of a demand response (DR) program with a target capacity of 75 MW across various resource plans under IRP cost assumptions. It also mentions that higher DR capacity is economic under high electrification scenarios and notes that demand response was economically selected by Plexos LT in the 2020 IRP.