N-1Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045
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the Draft Potential Study Report on July 15, 2019. Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Page 7 of 7 August 14, 2019 (including incremental costs assumptions) to stakeholders. Consider using updated avoided costs. The 2019 DSM Potential Stu...
AI summary The document discusses stakeholder feedback on the 2019 DSM Potential Study, emphasizing the use of outdated 2014 IRP avoided costs and the need for stakeholder engagement. EfficiencyOne (E1) addressed concerns by enhancing transparency and incorporating stakeholder input into the IRP process.
ase varies from approximately $18 million to $28 million annually. Figure ES-11. EE Total Portfolio Annual Investment, by Achievable Potential Scenario (nominal $) Source: Navigant analysis ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 12 Nova Scot...
AI summary The document presents the achievable potential scenarios for energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) investments in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various DR options using TRC and PAC tests, with most options being cost-effective except for BTM Battery Control and EV Charging Control.
could be achieved under the specific set of assumptions outlined in this study. Program design is typically a separate activity and is outside the scope of this study. 1.3.2 Measure Characterization The scope of this study employed both pr...
AI summary This section discusses the methodology used in the study, emphasizing the use of primary and secondary data sources to estimate measure savings, costs, and market presence. It acknowledges the limitations of assumptions and the potential for emerging technologies or societal changes to affect energy use and savings opportunities.
Engineering Analysis: Navigant used appropriate engineering algorithms to calculate energy savings for any measures not included in ENS programs or available TRMs. 3.3.2 Incremental Costs Navigant relied primarily on EfficiencyOne-provided...
AI summary Navigant used engineering algorithms and data from EfficiencyOne and TRMs to calculate energy savings. They relied on the 2019 Nova Scotia Baseline Study for building stock and density data and incorporated future code and standards adjustments based on Canada’s Forward Regulatory Plan 2019-2021.
Page 38 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 5. ENERGY EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POTENTIAL RESULTS This section describes the economic savings potential, which is potential that meets a prescribed level...
AI summary This section discusses the calculation of economic potential for energy efficiency in Nova Scotia, focusing on measures that meet a cost-effectiveness threshold of TRC 1.0. It explains how economic potential is derived from technical potential by including only cost-effective measures.
e adoption of DSM measures can be broken down into calculation of the “equilibrium” market share and calculation of the dynamic approach to equilibrium market share, as discussed in more detail below. Market potential differs from program...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology for calculating market potential and program potential in the context of demand-side management (DSM) measures. It highlights the difference between market potential, which is a high-level assessment based on customer acceptance and adoption rates, and program potential, which considers specific delivery mechanisms. The Total Resource Cost (TRC) measure is used for cost-effectiveness screening, with a threshold of 0.7.
ve to economic potential, and a given amount of time to reach that equilibrium state. Equilibrium saturation levels were derived from Navigant’s review of mature behavioral programs in North America. 6.4 Energy Efficiency Investment Strate...
AI summary EfficiencyOne's energy efficiency investment strategy assumes no budget constraints, with spending determined by per-unit-of-savings incentives and administrative costs. Administrative spending is divided into fixed and variable components, with fixed costs handled at the portfolio level for cost effectiveness and net benefits calculations.
2040 $171.85 $195.66 $329.25 -$29.78 2045 $144.20 $163.29 $309.15 -$35.90 Source: Navigant analysis ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 80 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Figure 8-21 present...
AI summary The document presents modelled investment levels for energy efficiency and demand response programs in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045, showing annual investment ranging between $40 million and $65 million. Fixed administrative costs are estimated at approximately 50% of total administrative spending in the base case and remain constant across scenarios.
ower End Use Model results to obtain end use shares for each building Determine Energy Sales after DSM •Subtract Navigant's EE potential study results from NS Power sales forecast before Calculate Bottom-Up Peak Demand •Apply coincident pe...
AI summary The document outlines a methodology for determining energy sales after demand-side management (DSM) by using end use shares and subtracting energy efficiency (EE) potential study results from NS Power sales forecasts. It also describes the process of calibrating peak demand projections and developing separate projections for electric vehicles (EVs) based on adoption forecasts.
enarios and Related Assumptions Navigant developed achievable potential estimates under three scenarios – base, high, and low. These scenarios represent variations in the following input assumptions: • Baseline peak demand projections: The...
AI summary Navigant developed achievable potential estimates for demand response (DR) under three scenarios – base, high, and low – based on variations in baseline peak demand projections and saturation values for heat pumps. The scenarios reflect different levels of energy efficiency potential and market adoption of heat pumps.
combinations of these levels of granularity • Powerful sensitivity and scenario analysis capability to identify key assumptions and largest leverage points • Provides histograms of top-saving measures, scatter plots to view savings versus...
AI summary The document outlines the use of a modeling tool with sensitivity analysis and scenario capabilities to evaluate energy efficiency measures. It references the 2020-2022 DSM Plan and the 2018 Potential Study Update, targeting a Total Resource Cost (TRC) threshold of 1.0 for economic potential and 0.7 TRC for achievable potential.
Load Forecast 1. Energy forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts 2. Demand forecast Customer Accounts Forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts Customer Demographics Nova Scotia customer surveys and other primary and secondary sources Measure-level...
AI summary The document outlines the inputs and assumptions used in energy and demand forecasting by Nova Scotia Power, including fuel shares, equipment shares, inflation rates, discount rates, and retail electricity rates. It also mentions the use of past program evaluations and line loss factors from DSM programs.
trends to be applied to each customer segment. EUI trends are intended to reflect natural changes in electricity consumption as a result of two factors: (1) natural conservation and (2) natural growth. • Natural conservation is a well-esta...
AI summary The text discusses EUI trends in the residential sector, focusing on natural conservation and natural growth. It explains that natural conservation refers to customer-driven energy efficiency improvements, while natural growth reflects increased consumption due to factors like home electronics. The impact of future building codes and appliance standards on conservation potential is also addressed.
4. Calculating the split (percentage) in spending between incentives and variable administrative costs predicted by the model to historic values. 5. Calculating total spending by sector and end use and comparing the resulting values to his...
AI summary The text outlines steps for analyzing spending splits between incentives and administrative costs, comparing total spending by sector and end use with historical data, and evaluating portfolio-level costs. It also discusses the importance of setting appropriate incentive levels in potential studies using Navigant’s DSMSimTM model.
costs, marketing and recruitment costs, O&M costs, and incentive levels. o Avoided energy and demand costs. From our experience, technical and economic potentials for DR are somewhat perfunctory exercises that don’t generally shed much lig...
AI summary The text discusses the analysis of demand response (DR) potential, distinguishing between maximum and realistic achievable potential based on incentives, marketing efforts, and real-world constraints. It emphasizes the use of potential savings and levelized cost data to construct supply curves.
t for a multi-tenant building which provides HVAC to terminal units in individual tenant spaces). Figure 30. BNI Sector – HVAC 3.9 BNI – Lighting Figure 31 presents data on the use of different types of LED lighting. Track/mono-point direc...
AI summary The document discusses lighting and HVAC usage in the BNI sector, highlighting the popularity of LED lighting and the presence of occupancy sensors. It also explores cost savings from energy efficiency projects, with a majority of BNI respondents indicating they would pursue projects with a payback period of 1.5 years or less.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
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and Clean Electricity measures are interdependent and were not modeled separately in this analysis. Thus, allocations to these two categories are preliminary approximations. 3.2 Final Energy Demand Final energy demand includes demand for e...
AI summary The text discusses the relationship between Clean Electricity and energy efficiency measures, highlighting that electrification, such as through heat pumps and electric vehicles, significantly reduces final energy demand. In the High Electrification scenario, final energy demand is about 20% lower than in other scenarios due to efficiency gains from electrification and building improvements.
38 Summary of Assumptions Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 40 of 112 Operating Costs – All Technologies Operating Cost Technology Subtechnology Fixed O&M Variable O&M ($/kW-yr) ($/MWh) Wind Onshore $59 $0 Offshore $165 $0...
AI summary The document presents operating costs for various energy technologies, including fixed and variable O&M costs for technologies such as wind, solar, biomass, tidal, storage, coal, natural gas, and nuclear. All O&M costs are assumed to escalate at 2% per year.
$250.00 Capital Cost Decline Trajectory ($2020) 2020$ Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) $3,500.00 $200.00 $3,000.00 $2,500.00 $150.00 $/kW
AI summary The document presents a capital cost decline trajectory and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) data for the year 2020, illustrating financial considerations related to energy generation and infrastructure planning.
nverted to gas in 2037 Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $8,166 • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2030 Average Annual Relative Rate Impact • Regional Integration: n/...
AI summary The document discusses the Essential Grid Services, Resource Adequacy & PRM, and Plan Robustness & Flexibility under the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Nova Scotia Power. It highlights CO2 emissions, reliance on natural gas, and the impact of gas conversion builds on supply flexibility.
MID DSM) H I G H E L E C . / M I D D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.2C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $14,721 $15,172 General Notes • Under the High Electrification...
AI summary The text discusses scenario metrics and evaluation under the High Electrification / Mid DSM sensitivity, comparing the 25-yr and 10-yr Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) figures. It highlights differences in infrastructure timing, coal retirement, and capacity changes between the Mid DSM case and the 2.2C base case, emphasizing GHG emission reductions and economic impacts.
RATI ON) M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,918 $12,983 General Notes • Model builds more wind relative...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluations for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under a sensitivity scenario compared to a base case (2.1C). Additional wind capacity is added, and a coal-to-gas conversion is implemented, leading to higher curtailment and increased NPVRR values.
36 Summary of Proposed Assumptions Operating Costs – All Technologies Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 56 of 321 Operating Cost Technology Subtechnology Fixed O&M Variable O&M ($/kW-yr) ($/MWh) Wind Onshore $54 $0 Offshor...
AI summary The document presents operating cost assumptions for various energy technologies, including fixed and variable O&M costs for wind, solar, biomass, tidal, storage, coal, natural gas, and nuclear technologies, with all costs assumed to escalate at 2% per year.
[26]. Table 1 shows yearly cost and GHG emissions for the current installed heating system in eight high- demand facilities. Table 1. Current heating systems Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page 32 of 62 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Rep...
AI summary The text presents a table outlining the current heating systems in eight high-demand facilities in the Municipality of the District of Digby, including fuel oil consumption, energy cost, heat load, and annual costs. The data is part of a submission by Sigma Energy Storage Inc. to Nova Scotia Power as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) final report.
20474 $0.13 165614 21 Provincial Building 44149 $0.13 357121 46 The output power of PV panels is estimated based on the model described in appendix I. Installing 40 kW PV panels can generate 56 MWh energy per year. The systems were design...
AI summary The text discusses the installation of 40 kW PV panels, which can generate 56 MWh of energy annually, and highlights the financial and environmental benefits of solar thermal energy storage systems for high-demand facilities, as presented in Table 2 and Figure 15.
e peak demand is estimated 482 kWh, so we designed a 500-kW system. The details are presented in Table 5. Table 5. Recommended biomass direct combustion system for local facilities Required Steam Turbine (kW) 500 Required Wood (38% moistur...
AI summary The text discusses the design and cost analysis of a biomass direct combustion system, including steam turbine requirements, wood consumption, and energy output. It also compares the proposed system's cost to similar small-scale biomass plants in the US.
• Has abundant, dispatchable energy capacity • Enables greater use of renewable power • Is stable and dependable • Brings cost of electricity to below grid average • Reduces fuel oil consumption and therefore • Reduces GHG emissions and bl...
AI summary The text highlights the benefits of a microgrid system for an industrial park, including reduced fuel oil consumption, GHG emissions, and cost savings. It outlines assumptions for a technical and financial analysis, such as fuel costs, carbon tax, and financing parameters, and references optimization methods to minimize energy costs while meeting demand.
8 am to 4 pm and it is 2126 kW. The average daily demand is 788 kW. The details are presented in Table 13. Table 13. Recommended biomass direct combustion system for the industrial park Required Steam Turbine (kW) 2200 Required Wood (38% m...
AI summary The text discusses a biomass direct combustion system for an industrial park, outlining its energy output, fuel requirements, and cost. It also highlights the environmental benefits, including GHG emission reductions and potential revenue from fossil fuel savings and carbon tax. Tables 13 and 14 are referenced to support the analysis.
icipality of the District of Digby (up to $145k/year) and Nova Scotia Power (up to $4.2M/year) (Table 15). Table 14. Environmental benefits of the 2.2 MW biomass direct combustion system Coal Saving (tonne/year) 1121-1622 Natural Gas Savin...
AI summary The text discusses the environmental and economic benefits of a 2.2 MW biomass direct combustion system, including fuel savings and GHG reductions. It also highlights the energy cost trends of a clean microgrid system over 20 years and the potential job creation from its deployment in an industrial park.
ince’s 2015 Electricity Plan: Our Electricity Future [53], Nova Scotia committed to introducing a new solar energy program. This program would help Nova Scotia move to a clean electricity system in Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page...
AI summary Nova Scotia committed to a new solar energy program in 2015 to move toward a clean electricity system. The document discusses the installation of PV panels in Digby, estimating their yearly production and levelized cost of energy. It highlights the need for higher resolution solar irradiation data and the use of hourly radiation estimates for accuracy.
Scotia: Up to m3/year) $35,000 per year 139 person per year direct jobs - Reduce the and 147 person For Digby Gut: GHG emissions per year indirect (up to 294 job tonne/year) Revenue for the Municipality: For Digby Gut: Up to $504,000 per y...
AI summary The text outlines potential environmental and economic benefits of a project in Digby Gut, including reductions in GHG emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and revenue generation for both the municipality and Nova Scotia. It highlights the reduction of up to 294 tonnes of GHG emissions annually and revenue up to $504,000 per year for the municipality and $128,000 per year for Nova Scotia.
e updated early in 2020 based on 2019 actual data [and CT] gas costs should be 20% lower per NREL ATB that became available after the original study was completed. Storage technologies O&M should be variable and not fixed; should include c...
AI summary The document discusses updates to gas costs and assumptions related to supply-side technologies in the IRP Final Report. It highlights discrepancies in storage technology O&M costs and the need to combine capex and opex with financing assumptions for accurate revenue requirement profiles.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Increase in Low capital Renewable Energy cost of Standard policy wind Low capital Low pricing of import cost of energy storage High High pricing of pricing of natural gas import energy Carbon Fuel security tax/pricing...
AI summary The document outlines a sensitivity analysis focusing on renewable energy standards, capital costs, and pricing of imported energy, as well as carbon tax and fuel security. It also proposes evaluation criteria for an integrated resource plan, emphasizing the minimization of revenue requirements and rate impacts over a 25-year period.
or cost) of the diesel CTs Outputs: System Costs (RR), Capacity Additions, Energy Generation, Retirements, etc. 3 The incremental cost of the portfolio (or savings) reflects the net system benefit (or cost) associated with the diesel CTs A...
AI summary Diesel CTs provide capacity value by maintaining existing fleet and avoiding new investments, contributing to peak load capacity. They also offer non-spinning reserve capacity, though they are not frequently used due to higher fuel costs. Replacement energy is not factored into calculations.
ve to alternative resource options; as such replacement energy does not factor into these calculations Diesel Peakers Marginal Value - 1.0.A Diesel Peakers Marginal Value – 2.1.C Levelized Levelized Fixed O&M + Fixed O&M + Sustaining Susta...
AI summary The document discusses the marginal value of diesel peakers and the cost-benefit analysis of replacing them with gas peakers in Nova Scotia. It highlights that while diesel peakers are rarely used, their removal would require new gas peakers to maintain reliability. The economic choice favors gas peakers over alternatives like battery storage. The net present value of maintaining diesel peakers is estimated at ~$186 MM without end effects and ~$240 MM with end effects.
n and Mid Electrification and Base High Electrification and Max Base DSM DSM DSM NPV ($MM) $12,257 $12,193 $12,215 $12,275 $12,954 $13,468 $13,049 $13,607 $14,948 $15,372 $15,057 $15,854 (2021-2045) Avg. Generation 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.0...
AI summary The text presents a comparison of different electrification and DSM scenarios, showing net present value (NPV) figures and average generation costs. It highlights the impact of various energy generation combinations on GHG emissions and costs by 2035 and 2045.
Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 37 of 245 Net Zero, Mid Elec./Base DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 Higher loads than 2.0.A leads to about ~260 MW more GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.2 1.4 g...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of higher loads on the Net Zero, Mid Elec./Base DSM, and Current Landscape scenarios, leading to increased gas peaker, CCGT, wind, and battery build. It also highlights rising generation costs and the increasing share of wind and imported energy by 2045.
Energy Balance (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Energy (GWh) 37 2.2.A - Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 40 of 245 Net Zero, High Elec./Max DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The h...
AI summary The document discusses the need for nearly 1 GW of additional nameplate capacity by 2045 due to high electrification forecasts. This capacity will be sourced from new gas CCGTs, CTs, wind, and batteries. GHG emissions are projected to decrease from 3.2 MMT in 2035 to 1.4 MMT in 2045, with marginal abatement costs increasing from $24 to $51 per ton.
roughly equal parts from new gas CCGTs, CTs, wind, and batteries NPV ($2021) – with 20-year end effects $20,068 The average generation cost increases significantly (~12%) Average Generation Cost (c/kWh) 8.7 relative to 2.1.A Capacity Add...
AI summary The text presents a comparison of generation sources, including new gas CCGTs, CTs, wind, and batteries, with an NPV of $20,068 and an increase in average generation cost by approximately 12% to 8.7 c/kWh. It also outlines capacity additions and retirements, as well as energy balance figures for various technologies.
ary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 41 of 245 Net Zero, High Elec./Max DSM, Distributed Resources Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The addition of DER’s mitigates the capacity and energy GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.2 1.4 ne...
AI summary The addition of DERs reduces capacity and energy needs under a high electrification scenario, but increases average generation costs. GHG emissions decrease from 2035 to 2045, and the NPV increases significantly when considering 20-year end effects. However, the cost of DER resources is not included in the NPV calculations, which ranges from $1.6B to $2.5B.
Energy Balance (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Energy (GWh) 41 3.1.B - Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 44 of 245 Accel. Net Zero, Mid Elec./Base DSM, Distributed Resources Key Observations Metric 2035 2...
AI summary The case summary discusses the impact of DERs on capacity and energy needs under high electrification scenarios, noting that DERs reduce capacity and energy needs. It also highlights the GHG emissions and marginal abatement costs, as well as the NPV of the case compared to other scenarios.
se Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 47 of 245 Accel. Net Zero, High Elec., Max DSM, Distributed Resources Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 Due to the load reduction provided by DER, less new GHG Emissions (MMT)...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of distributed energy resources (DER) on GHG emissions, generation costs, and capacity planning under different scenarios. It highlights that DER reduces the need for new capacity but increases average generation costs due to lower load factors. The NPV calculations and energy balance are also presented.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 49 of 245 Comparator, Low COVID Load, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The slight reduction in load has little impact on the GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.7 2.2 capacity addit...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of a slight reduction in load on capacity addition decisions, noting minimal changes in system costs and GHG emissions. It provides metrics such as GHG emissions, marginal abatement cost, NPV, and average generation cost for 2035 and 2045.
60 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 63 of 245 2.1A MID ELEC. / BASE DSM / NET ZERO 2050 / CURRENT LANDSCAPE $MM Scenario Notes 25-yr NPVRR $13,306 • Reliability Tie built in 2031 enables wind integration but does not prov...
AI summary The text presents financial figures related to Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) under different scenarios, including the 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Revenue Requirement (NPVRR) with and without energy efficiency (EE) considerations. It also references the construction of a reliability tie in 2031 and the use of gas combined cycle (CT) and combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) units.
IAL PORTFOLIO STUDY NOTES • The following slides provide the Initial Portfolio Study results from PLEXOS LT for the key scenarios as well for select sensitivities (full capacity expansion runs) • The section includes several summary compar...
AI summary The document presents the Initial Portfolio Study results from PLEXOS LT, including energy mix, capacity installation, emissions compliance, and NPV of partial revenue requirement. It also includes a graph showing the increasing penetration of renewables in Nova Scotia and forecast generation from 2021-2045.
incorporate some BTM costs into its reported cost metric, we suggest using a modest placeholder value. If Plexos produces marginal hourly energy costs, those could be used for the assumed DER load shape. Otherwise, NS Power might use some...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges of incorporating bottom-of-the-meter (BTM) costs, the limitations of using NPVRR and partial generation cost metrics for comparing energy plans, and the need for a more meaningful bill metric. It also highlights the importance of considering T&D cost sensitivities and the need for more detailed computation methods for capital investments in the long-term Plexos model.
me that consumers are replacing fossil fuel costs for heating and transport with electrical costs and there is substantial potential that this transition will provide significant savings to consumers. Present electric vehicles provide 100...
AI summary The text discusses the financial benefits of transitioning from fossil fuels to electric vehicles, highlighting significant savings for consumers. It compares the cost of electric versus gasoline transportation, showing that electric vehicles provide substantial annual savings despite increased electricity costs. The analysis also considers the impact of high electrification scenarios and suggests that health benefits could add further long-term savings for the province.
hen the units are more likely to be called upon. Availability of fuel supply has decreased following the closure of local refineries. Reliability issues associated with maintaining units out to their 2 Page 16 – IRP Modeling Results Worksh...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of aging power generation units and decreased fuel supply on reliability, as well as the potential increase in peak load due to electrification and its implications for transmission and distribution costs. Heritage Gas notes that these issues were not previously considered in Integrated Resource Plans.
- economic treatment of GHG emissions following 2050. 8 Presentation Distributed Energy NS Power 2020 IRP 17, 23 The cost of DER resources was not included in model NPV The "NPV Partial Revenue Requirement Comparison" graph indicates Consi...
AI summary The text discusses the economic treatment of GHG emissions post-2050 and highlights issues with the cost modeling of DER resources in the 2020 IRP. It notes that the cost of DERs was not included in the model's NPV calculations, leading to potential misrepresentations in cost comparisons between scenarios.
antities of installed wind capacity as seen in the IRP modeling results. 3. Pursue economic reinvestment in existing hydro and combustion turbines with individual business cases as applicable. 4. Complete a thermal plant Depreciation Study...
AI summary The document outlines next steps for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including stakeholder workshops, public comment periods, and finalization of the IRP report. It also highlights actions such as monitoring low/zero carbon fuels, refining depreciation strategies, and tracking the costs of renewable energy technologies.
I R P D R A F T F I N D I N G S , R O A D M A P, & A C T I O N P L A N 3 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 71 of 264 RELIABILITY AND OPERABILITY SCREENING Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 72 of 264 RELIAB...
AI summary The document discusses the reliability and operability screening process conducted by Nova Scotia Power as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report. It references the use of PLEXOS modeling for capacity expansion and production cost simulations, along with NPV calculations that include modeled and specific costs.
ree time periods Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $7,524 $7,224 • No change relative to 3.1C Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2029 Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • Regional Integration: 2030 2021-2030 (%) 1.9% 1.4% 2...
AI summary The text presents data on essential grid services, resource adequacy, and carbon emissions under different scenarios. It includes NPVRR values, partial rate impacts, and CO2 emissions for the periods 2021-2030 and 2031-2045. The appendix also references a wind cost scenario and compares new installed capacity in 2045.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,086 $13,141 General Notes • In general, resource plan changes are similar to what is seen in 2.1C.WIND-1 sensitivity but more pronounced • Low wind and battery pri...
AI summary The document presents sensitivity analysis of 25-yr and 10-yr NPVRR under different scenarios, highlighting changes in resource plans, including increased wind energy, coal unit retirements, and reliability tie advancements. These changes influence CO2 emissions and partial rate impacts over time.
ment and replacement energy costs, NPVs incorporating MT/ST Production 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $7,049 $7,067 Costs are not significantly lower than the base scenario 2.1C Essential Grid Services • This run is intended as a test case to understan...
AI summary The text discusses the financial and environmental impacts of different energy planning scenarios, highlighting that energy costs and CO2 emissions are higher in certain cases. It also explores the performance of the model under extreme conditions, such as no inertia and no wind integration, and emphasizes the importance of flexibility in resource planning.
alysis of intermittent wind should allow wind to be installed on an economic level, and accepting that on rare occasions it may be necessary to curtail wind output to ensure the system remains stable. As noted in AREA’s February 14 comment...
AI summary The Alternative Resource Energy Authority (AREA) emphasizes the importance of considering alternative, lower-cost financing models for wind energy in Nova Scotia’s electricity system transformation. They also express concerns about the integration of multiple market conditions into the 'low case' scenarios in NS Power’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). AREA awaits the Draft IRP report and plans to provide further comments.
ions, covering the range from the earliest feasible date to 2032) should be developed for use in bid evaluation. The regional interconnection should be handled similarly, except that there will be need for fewer in-service date options and...
AI summary The text discusses the development of in-service date ranges for bid evaluation, emphasizing the need for flexibility from 2028 to 2040. It also highlights the assumption that NS Power will not bear costs related to electrification programs, despite the need for some level of investment to achieve electrification goals.
tel. 902.429.2202 2705 Fern Lane, fax. 902.405.3716 Halifax, NS, B3K 4L3 analysis indicates that an accelerated phase-out would avoid 89 premature deaths, 8,000 asthma episodes and 58,000 days of breathing difficulty for Nova Scotians, amo...
AI summary The text discusses the benefits of an accelerated phase-out of coal by 2030, including reduced health impacts and environmental benefits. It also comments on the Draft Action Plan, supporting the development of a Regional Integration Strategy and the electrification of the grid to reduce carbon emissions and stabilize the power system.
2039 2040 2042 2043 2044 2045 -200 1.0A 1.0C 2.0A 2.0C 2.1A 2.1B 2.1C 2.2A 2.2C 3.1B 3.1C 3.2B 3.2C Figure 1: Build-out of additional Wind Capacity in the initial Scenarios. As can be observed, several scenarios have approximately 200 MW o...
AI summary The document discusses NSP's proposed wind procurement strategy, aiming to add 0-100 MW of new wind capacity by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030. This strategy is linked to higher electrification, which NSP believes can help reduce electricity rates and support Nova Scotia’s emissions policy goals.
point here. 4. Consideration of Risk NSP has aimed at identifying certain actions which are generally common to all or most scenarios, and has proposed these within its initial draft action plan. A common approach is also to look for scena...
AI summary The document discusses the consideration of risk in the context of Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) action plan, emphasizing the importance of identifying low-regret scenarios that perform well across various future conditions. It also addresses the continuation of associating battery and synch comp costs with additional wind capacity, with NSP limiting wind capacity to 700 MW unless accompanied by capital-intensive batteries.
NPV E1 In the Roadmap, NS Power has committed to tracking the ongoing development of the Nova Scotia Cap (2) The IRP results should modify the NPV revenue requirement calculation on the basis of and-Trade Program, including auction results...
AI summary NS Power is considering the impact of carbon revenues on the NPV revenue requirement calculation in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The document highlights the importance of tracking the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program and monitoring GHG market size. It also notes the potential impact of carbon pricing on resource planning decisions, including non-emitting generation procurement and coal retirement.
DSM E1 The updated Modeling Results release provides a quantification of how various levels of DSM impact the (4) Provide more context on the results of the DSM sensitivity analyses for the various cost measures. Additional discussion has...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of Demand-Side Management (DSM) on cost measures and electrification scenarios. It highlights that higher levels of DSM can provide increased ratepayer value with higher electrification. However, higher DSM levels in resource plan sensitivities may not be cost-effective despite reduced capacity needs and lower emissions.
ith these imports including costs or carbon intensity and they have indicated that there are no commercial agreements in place to underpin the incremental imports.
AI summary The text discusses imports, noting the absence of commercial agreements to support incremental imports, and mentions considerations such as costs and carbon intensity.
ne over time. (Page 19) c. NS Power should not rely upon the relative rate impact comparison analysis as the basis for recommending any level of DSM program investments. (Page 20) Short-Term Action Plan RII concurs with a substantial porti...
AI summary The text discusses the need for NS Power to revise its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and develop a more definitive strategy for resource procurement, transmission investments, and wind integration. It also emphasizes the importance of updating the IRP model analysis and considering the economic analysis of the Mersey hydro facilities.
ses with some or all of more competitive wind costs; disassociation with requirement for batteries/synch comps, and higher demand levels (mainly due to further electrification)3. The scenarios show clearly that (a) capital cost of wind and...
AI summary The analysis shows that wind energy deployment in optimized portfolios is significantly influenced by capital costs and the inclusion of batteries/synch comps. Lower wind and battery costs lead to increased wind capacity deployment. Electrification is expected to increase demand, and attributing monetary value to emissions reduction would further favor early wind build-out.
cost decline over the planning horizon was larger than for onshore. Ongoing O&M costs are estimated to be 2 times more expensive than onshore wind. In addition, the Capacity Factor midpoint is estimated to be 41% for offshore wind, 2% high...
AI summary The text compares the costs and capacity factors of offshore and onshore wind energy. It notes that offshore wind has higher ongoing O&M costs and a slightly higher capacity factor compared to onshore wind.
facilitating broader policy objectives for emissions reductions (while at the same time reducing prices to electricity customers). This is discussed further in the IRP report in section 3.2 “Maintaining Affordability” (page 48), but should...
AI summary The text discusses the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) report, emphasizing the need to balance emissions reduction objectives with maintaining affordability for electricity customers. It also addresses the impact of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) on rate impacts, noting that while DER can add rate pressure, NS Power believes the industry is still in its early stages with potential for future savings.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response the avoided cost values to structure EE programs? How will the parties consider the dynamic nature of the impact of EE savings on avoided cost levels? How will the electrification progress be...
AI summary The SBA is asking how avoided cost values will be used to structure energy efficiency programs and how electrification progress will be incorporated into ongoing analysis. The SBA also raises questions about the regulatory review framework for coal retirements, including whether additional economic analyses will be conducted and what decision metrics will be used for retirement timing.
-CanREA believes that more than 100 MW of additional wind could be procured (The approximate quantity identified by NS Power in its Wind Procurement Strategy, but which very likely will increase when appropriate consideration is given to t...
AI summary CanREA suggests that additional wind capacity could be procured, noting that wind resources could provide regulation services. They mention that wind output could be constrained during low-load conditions but could offset curtailment costs by providing primary frequency response, highlighting wind's low cost as a domestic renewable resource.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE Halifax No comments n/a Regional Municipality Hendricks No comments n/a Heritage Supportive with ongoing monitoring: 2020-11-13; p. 5/5 -‘With respect to the existing CTs, NSPI has stated t...
AI summary Heritage Gas supports ongoing monitoring of the existing LFO-fired CTs due to concerns about their reliability and the inconclusive data on the impact of sustaining capital investments. This is based on an audit report that highlighted potential issues with the units.
ACTION PLAN ITEM STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE -Incorporate industry best practices such as those programs, as well as providing additional detail, identified by the Regulatory Assistance Project as well as especially regarding...
AI summary The text outlines an action plan to incorporate industry best practices for electrification programs, focusing on transportation and building sectors as identified in the Deep Decarbonization Pathways report. It also calls for data collection on electrification demand and proposes pilot programs under NSUARB oversight.
ACTION PLAN ITEM STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE below) to identify the impacts on rates that might result from plausible levels of program investment in electrification. Given the diversity of the possible futures, RII recognize...
AI summary The stakeholder suggests that the Board should consider the impacts of program investment in electrification on rates and encourages the consideration of benefits such as cost savings and carbon reduction. An estimate of the annual investment causing upward pressure on rates is requested.
Request / Directive Originator Status NS Power Comments 2018 FAM Audit Recommendation IX-1 Bates White Complete Please refer to Assumptions, Modeling Results, Findings, Analysis Plan, Action Plan, and Roadmap. (d) Consider the full costs a...
AI summary The 2018 FAM Audit Recommendation IX-1 from Bates White advises NS Power to consider the full costs and benefits of various investment alternatives, including natural gas infrastructure, demand-side management, and transmission expansion. NS Power developed a natural gas model with different gas price scenarios and variable fuel cost inputs for the PLEXOS model.
Request / Directive Originator Status NS Power Comments Recommendation XIV-5: NSPI should perform a standalone Bates White n/a Biomass as a component of the renewable analysis to determine the value of the Biomass Plant to FAM electricity...
AI summary Bates White recommended that NSPI perform an analysis to determine the value of the PH Biomass Plant to FAM customers, considering its operation without PHP load. NSPI accepted the recommendation and planned to incorporate the analysis into the 2019 IRP. The Board later approved the ELIADC tariff, removing PHP’s explicit access to the biomass plant’s generation.