N-1Evaluation Report
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Summary of Deliverable / Commitment Detail & Context Source 1 Initial Due by / Completed on Status Refer to File YR4 Report Report on the Year Four findings no later than 31 Jul 2025 File the annual Evaluation, Measurement and Verification...
AI summary The document outlines deliverables for the Year 4 report, including the submission of findings and an EM&V report by July 31, 2025. It also includes commitments by NS Power to analyze system margin forecasts and CPP events and to report on stakeholder engagement related to TVP options for small businesses.
Definitions The hourly net system requirement (MW) less all wind generation (MW) Cohorts are numbered based on the Phase they enrolled in the TVP program. For example, Cohort 4 refers to participants recruited in Phase 4 (i.e. the fourth W...
AI summary The document defines key terms used in the regulatory proceeding, including rate classes, energy consumption metrics, and income brackets. It outlines the structure of the TVP program and the methodology for evaluating energy efficiency initiatives.
The methodology is primarily composed of two components: control group selection and regression modelling. Control group selection includes matching treatment customers with control customers based on a similar location (i.e. neighbourhood...
AI summary The methodology for evaluating program effectiveness involves selecting a control group based on location, heating type, and participation in other programs, and using regression models like DiD and DDD to analyze load profiles and TVP price signals. Commercial TOU and CPP tariffs use a semi-DiD approach due to challenges in control group selection.
6 Commercial CPP Tariff Impacts This section presents and discusses the estimated load and economic impacts of the commercial CPP program. The goal of the commercial CPP pilot is to encourage customers to shift their electricity usage from...
AI summary This section discusses the estimated load and economic impacts of the commercial CPP program, which aims to encourage load shifting during peak events to reduce energy costs and infrastructure expenses. The analysis is based on a Mixed-Effects modeling semi-DiD approach and covers CPP events from November 01, 2024, to March 31, 2025.
MURB TOU Tariff Evaluation Metrics Approach - Evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) plans are roadmaps for maximizing the learnings from pilot or program deployments - o EM&V plans aim to clearly articulate the goals of the progr...
AI summary NS Power plans to file a single EM&V report by July 31, 2025, including the existing TVP Tariffs and the new MURB TOU Pilot Tariff. The report will use metrics from prior evaluations and include new metrics like revenue impact and demand charge impact to meet Board directives and Consensus Agreement commitments.
N-1-(i)TVP Year 4 Report Appendix A (Redline) - Refiled
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Nova Scotia Power (NS Power, Company) launched the Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) Tariff Pilot on November 1, 2021, with the purpose of encouraging customers to shift load from Winter peak periods to Winter off-peak periods. These tariffs pres...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) Tariff Pilot, launched in 2021, encourages load shifting to reduce peak energy demand and system costs. The fourth annual report highlights continued customer enrollment growth, load reduction effects, and improved evaluation methods. The pilot demonstrates significant on-peak load reductions, particularly during high system load periods, and provides insights for future demand response strategies.
Table 49: Change in Daily Electricity Bill for Commercial CPP Participants Parameters Winter Non-Winter Annual Average Bill Savings ($/day)a Avg. -11.7 4 ± -1.50.1 ± 10.3-9.83 ± 10.113.1 1.91.6 7.011.1 Avg. Bill, Commercial CPP Participant...
AI summary The table shows that while commercial Conservation Program Participants (CPP) increased energy consumption during non-Winter months, their average daily electricity bills did not change significantly due to a decrease in CPP volumetric energy costs.
Energy Savings Programs E1 program participation14F [15](#page-112-1) and evaluation reports15F [16](#page-112-2) are used for control group selection balancing. Refer t[o Attachment III: Methodology](#page-111-0) (section III.2.4 E1 [Prog...
AI summary The document discusses the E1 program's use in control group selection balancing for the TVP evaluation, including the Eco Shift program's role in demand response through behind-the-meter technologies. It also references evaluation reports and matter numbers related to the DSM program.
Where: i are datapoints corresponding the 24 hours in both seasons (Winter/non-Winter) and day types (weekend/weekday) for a total of 96 different combinations. $Tavg_i$ is the average load of the treatment customer during datapoint i. $Ca...
AI summary The text describes a method for analyzing customer load data across various timeframes and customer categories to identify potential control groups for E1 program participation. It outlines the calculation of average and peak load metrics and the balancing process across different subgroups.
III.3.1 Residential TOU & CPP This section presents the methodology used to determine the load, usage, and economic impact of the residential TOU and CPP tariffs. The estimates for load and economic impacts are rounded and reported accordi...
AI summary This section outlines the methodology for assessing the load, usage, and economic impact of residential Time-of-Use (TOU) and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) tariffs. Estimates are rounded to reflect the margin of error at the 90% confidence level, typically using two significant figures.
III.3.2 Commercial TOU & CPP This section presents the methodology used to determine the load, usage, and economic impact of the commercial TOU and CPP tariffs. The estimates for load and economic impacts are rounded and reported according...
AI summary This section discusses the methodology used to evaluate the load and economic impacts of commercial Time-of-Use (TOU) and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) tariffs. It outlines the use of a Linear Mixed Effect model and semi-DiD method due to the absence of a control group and small sample sizes, highlighting the challenges in analyzing commercial load impacts compared to residential.
N-2TVP Year 4 Report Appendix A (Clean) - Refiled
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Definitions Adjusted Net Load The hourly net system requirement (MW) less all wind generation (MW) Other Board Directives and Consensus Agreement Commitments 142 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Peak Load Reductions by Residential TVP Ta...
AI summary The document provides definitions and outlines tables summarizing load reductions, participation metrics, and energy consumption data related to time-varying pricing (TVP) and other tariff programs. It includes references to adjusted net load and other technical terms used in the analysis of energy efficiency and demand response initiatives.
The methodology is primarily composed of two components: control group selection and regression modelling. Control group selection includes matching treatment customers with control customers based on a similar location (i.e. neighbourhood...
AI summary The methodology involves control group selection based on location, heating type, and program participation, and uses regression models like DiD and DDD to evaluate program impacts. Commercial TOU and CPP tariffs use a semi-DiD approach due to control group limitations. Attachments provide further details.
Parameters De- Electrified Electrified Steady Electric Steady Non-Electric Winter Avg. Bill Savings ($/day) a $0.36 \pm 0.04$ -0.47 ± 0.03 $0.56 \pm 0.02$ 0.14 ± 0.01 Avg. Bill – Residential CPP, Pre- Pilot ($/day) 6.3 8.0 10.3 3.4 Relativ...
AI summary The text presents a table comparing average bill savings and relative bill savings percentages for different electrification scenarios during winter, non-winter, and annual periods. The data shows significant variations in savings, with some scenarios showing bill increases. The significance of these findings is indicated with p-values.
6 Commercial CPP Tariff Impacts This section presents and discusses the estimated load and economic impacts of the commercial CPP program. The goal of the commercial CPP pilot is to encourage customers to shift their electricity usage from...
AI summary This section discusses the estimated load and economic impacts of the commercial Controlled Load Program (CPP) pilot, which aims to shift electricity usage from peak to off-peak periods. The analysis uses a Mixed-Effects modeling semi-DiD approach and covers CPP events from November 2024 to March 2025.
7.2.1 Change in Electricity Bills For the assessment of the economic impacts of the MURB TOU program, the same DiD approach used to estimate load and demand impacts was applied to evaluate changes in electricity bills for MURB TOU particip...
AI summary The document discusses the economic impact of the MURB TOU program on electricity bills, using a DiD approach. Although MURB TOU participants experienced an average daily bill increase of about $4.5, it is not statistically significant. The rate was designed to save participants during non-Winter seasons.
Table 66: Summary of Changes to Control Group Methodology[18](#page-113-3) Previous Method New Method Projected Benefit Neighbourhood criteria based on feeder and postal code combination Neighbourhood criteria to be based on region (i.e. C...
AI summary This table outlines changes to the control group methodology, including the use of region-based neighborhood criteria, inclusion of heating classification in selection, and Eco Shift participation. These changes aim to improve load similarity metrics and streamline the control group selection process.
III.3.1 Residential TOU & CPP This section presents the methodology used to determine the load, usage, and economic impact of the residential TOU and CPP tariffs. The estimates for load and economic impacts are rounded and reported accordi...
AI summary This section outlines the methodology for assessing the load, usage, and economic impact of residential Time-of-Use (TOU) and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) tariffs. Estimates are rounded based on the margin of error at the 90% confidence level to ensure accuracy and avoid false precision.
Attachment III: Methodology second, the addition of a random intercept, changing the model from a fixed effects to mixed-effects model. Given the relatively small participant count of Eco Shift with TVP (TOU = 115 , CPP = 94) and heterogen...
AI summary This section discusses the methodology used in analyzing the impact of the Eco Shift program on Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) participants. It highlights the use of a mixed-effects model to account for heterogeneity among participants and the inclusion of a random intercept to improve the precision and reliability of the estimated program impacts.
III.3.1.2 Economic Impact Regression Model The regression model used for billing impact is as follows in equation ([9)](#page-125-0). $$\begin{aligned} \textit{DailyBill}_{it} &= \beta_0 + \beta_1. \textit{Treatment}_i + \beta_2. \textit{P...
AI summary The document presents a regression model used to analyze the economic impact of billing changes, including variables such as treatment status, pilot periods, and heating degree days (HDD). It also references models for daily price elasticity and inter-period substitution price elasticity.
TOU). Analysis by Cohort – Opposite to the residential load impact evaluation, an analysis by cohort is not feasible for commercial due to low sample sizes introducing statistical insignificance. Weather Adjusted – To ensure that premise-s...
AI summary The analysis of commercial Time-of-Use (TOU) and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) rates discusses challenges in cohort-based load impact evaluation due to small sample sizes and the application of a weather-adjustment model using HDD regression. Seasonality also impacts load patterns, with seasonal service customers excluded from TOU/CPP rates.
Attachment V: Validation of Mixed Effects Regression [Control Group Selection)](#page-22-1) relative to residential customers. As such, the methodological choice to use a fixed effects regression model for commercial customers, like reside...
AI summary This section discusses the validation of a mixed effects regression model used in the Phase 4 evaluation to account for the heterogeneous nature of commercial load and baseloads. It contrasts this approach with the fixed effects model, which was deemed unsuitable for commercial customers due to the risk of significant Type II error.
Coincidence of Critical Peak Events and System Margin In its Decision and Order on the Year Three (2023/24) Evaluation Report (Year Three Report) in M11823, the Board provided: NS Power agreed with Synapse that system margin forecasts may...
AI summary The Board directed NS Power to analyze the relationship between system margin forecasts and Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) events in the Year 4 report, and to refine methods for estimating load reductions from Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) tariffs. Analysis showed that during CPP events, system margin was significantly lower compared to non-CPP event hours.
Attachment VII: Board Directives and Consensus Agreement Commitments 2025/26 Season (M12499), NS Power provided an update on the status of these directives and commitments. In its letter on NS Power's December 2025 Year Four Report extensi...
AI summary The Board has approved NS Power's request to extend the filing date of the TVP 2024/25 EM&V report to June 30, 2026, and has deferred some directives and commitments to future sessions or the EM&V report. NS Power provided an update on the status of these directives as Attachment 1.
N-3Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) Pilot Year Five (2025/26) Evaluation Report (Appendix A)
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1 Methodology The methodology is primarily composed of two components: control group selection and regression modelling of load and economic impacts. This methodology in detail was filed as Attachments III to V to the Phase 4 TVP EM&V Repo...
AI summary The methodology for evaluating Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) involves control group selection and regression modeling. Control groups are matched based on location and load profiles, and a mixed-effects regression model using difference-in-differences (DiD) is applied. Data quality for Phase 5 is noted to be lower than in Phase 4, which may affect results.
to correct for this mismatch between control and treatment data, all treatment data without the corresponding control hourly usage data was removed from the analysis, refer to [Figure 9b](#page-35-0). Figure 9: Hourly Data Completeness in...
AI summary The analysis discusses data completeness for the Phase 5 MURB TOU EM&V analysis, highlighting that 60.2% of data was usable after removing unpaired treatment data. NS Power used a DiD regression approach similar to Phase 4 for reliability, despite incomplete control group AMI data.
Data & Reporting - Planning for Data Lake Reporting is still ongoing with and estimated completion date of October 30, 2026: - Potential changes in analytics tools - This may impact Phase 6 EM&V - The Phase 4 (2024/25) Evaluation Report wi...
AI summary Planning for Data Lake Reporting is ongoing with an estimated completion date of October 30, 2026. Potential changes in analytics tools may impact Phase 6 EM&V. The Phase 4 (2024/25) Evaluation Report will be filed by June 30, 2026, and the Phase 5 (2025/26) Evaluation report by July 31, 2026, which evaluates the MURB TOU Tariff for winter phase 5.