N-1Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045
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ntial, screened using the Program Administrator cost test, as part of the Draft Results package shared with the DSMAG. A scenario should be provided in the All achievable potential scenarios have been prepared in such a manner Potential St...
AI summary The document outlines EfficiencyOne's (E1) submission of a Potential Study and Baseline Study Report to the DSMAG, emphasizing the use of only commercially-available technologies. Stakeholder feedback was sought, with E1 addressing concerns by providing detailed sources for assumptions and incremental costs in July 2019.
....................................................................... 18 1.5 Report Organization .................................................................................................................... 18 2. GLOBAL DATA ........
AI summary The document outlines a report structure focusing on global data segmentation, end-use definitions, fuel shares, electricity consumption, and energy efficiency measure characterization. It details customer sector segmentation, energy efficiency parameters, and approaches for assessing energy savings.
Figure 1-1. Summary of Project Scope ..................................................................................................... 16 Figure 2-1. Customer Segments by Sector ............................................................
AI summary The text lists figures from a report analyzing energy efficiency (EE) technical potential, customer segmentation by sector, residential and BNI segments, end-use electricity consumption, and sectoral electricity savings in Nova Scotia. Key themes include EE potential, residential/commercial segmentation, and electricity consumption trends.
..... 33 Figure 4-6. EE Technical Potential, Winter Peak Demand Savings by End Use (MW, gross at generator).......................................................................................................................................
AI summary The text lists figures related to energy efficiency (EE) technical and economic potential, including winter peak demand savings by end use, residential and BNI measures, and sectoral electricity savings. The focus is on quantifying EE opportunities across different sectors and demand scenarios.
Savings by Sector (MW, gross at generator) .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure 5-5. EE Economic Potential, Electricity...
AI summary The document presents a study on Nova Scotia's Energy Efficiency (EE) and Demand Response (DR) potential from 2021-2045, focusing on economic potential and electricity savings by sector. Figures 5-5 illustrate EE savings as a percentage of sector sales, highlighting resource assessment and budgeting implications.
Figure 9-2. EE BNI 2045 Cumulative Achievable Potential Sensitivity (GWh, net at generator) ................ 85 Figure 10-1. DR Potential Assessment Steps .......................................................................................
AI summary The text lists figures analyzing energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) potential in Nova Scotia, including customer segmentation, peak demand forecasts, battery capacity, vehicle adoption, and DR options. Figures focus on technical assessments, market segmentation, and scenario-based projections for EE and DR programs.
at is that, by definition, technical potential calculation does not consider participation overlaps. Therefore, the technical potential estimates for each DR option should be considered independently. Navigant assessed cost-effectiveness o...
AI summary The document discusses the technical and economic potential of energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) in Nova Scotia over a 25-year period. Technical potential remains relatively stable at around 8,300 GWh, while economic potential is estimated at approximately 7,700 GWh. Achievable potential is calculated by considering participation assumptions and customer opt-out rates.
Page 8 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Figure ES-8 presents market winter peak demand results for four market potential scenarios; (1) maximum achievable, (2) mid case, (3) base case, and (4)...
AI summary The document presents market winter peak demand results for four scenarios (maximum achievable, mid case, base case, low case) ranging between 375 MW and 600 MW over 25 years. It also discusses technical and economic potential savings, which range from 85% to 99% annually, largely due to fuel switching in HVAC systems. Line loss factors differ between the study and system requirement documents.
Study. Figure ES-9. EE Technical and Economic Potential Winter Peak Demand Savings as a Percent of Total Load (%) Source: Navigant analysis ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 10 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential...
AI summary The document presents figures analyzing the technical and economic potential of energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It shows winter peak demand savings as a percentage of total load and investment levels for different EE scenarios over a 25-year period.
tates, and our DSM potential studies and models have been quoted by ACEEE as being “robust and transparent… [and] their methodology for forecasting participation is industry standard best-practice.” 6 As is typical in the development of su...
AI summary Navigant was commissioned by EfficiencyOne to estimate the potential for electric energy efficiency and demand response in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. The study involved collaboration with stakeholders through the DSMAG and aimed to inform integrated resource planning and program design.
could be achieved under the specific set of assumptions outlined in this study. Program design is typically a separate activity and is outside the scope of this study. 1.3.2 Measure Characterization The scope of this study employed both pr...
AI summary This section discusses the methodology used in the study, emphasizing the use of primary and secondary data sources to estimate measure savings, costs, and market presence. It acknowledges the limitations of assumptions and the potential for emerging technologies or societal changes to affect energy use and savings opportunities.
sures analyzed in studies such as this are not typically warranted considering the dramatic increase in costs one would have to incur to calibrate a different adoption model for every single measure. 1.4 Interpreting Results This report in...
AI summary The report outlines the methodology for estimating energy efficiency and demand response potentials in Nova Scotia, emphasizing aggregated savings and measure-level data. It details the organization of the report, which includes sections on data, technical and economic potential, market approaches, and forecasting methods.
brium market share, behavioural measures, investment and incentive strategy, re-participation, and model calibration. Section 7 – discusses the Reference Forecast Approach and scenario configuration. Section 8 – presents the Energy Efficie...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology and findings of a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It covers market potential approaches, sensitivity analysis, demand response methodologies, and cost-effectiveness results across various sectors and customer classes.
Page 19 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 2. GLOBAL DATA Navigant aggregated multiple data sources to simulate many elements of the market conditions in Nova Scotia that help to define the pote...
AI summary Navigant compiled various data sources to model energy saving technology potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. Key inputs include energy forecasts, household counts, building stock, fuel splits, and end use energy allocations. Data sources include the Nova Scotia Baseline Study, EfficiencyOne, Nova Scotia Power, Statistics Canada, and others, with a focus on primary data specific to Nova Scotia.
site visits (see Appendix B) • ENS program evaluation reports • NS Power end use intensity-based forecasts (Load Forecast Models) • Previous Nova Scotia DSM potential studies Where Nova Scotia-specific information was not available, Naviga...
AI summary Navigant used various data sources, including EfficiencyOne and Nova Scotia Power's models, to estimate energy consumption and develop customer sector segmentation. The segmentation was developed in collaboration with EfficiencyOne and the DSM Advisory Group and reflects the DSMSim™ model's approach to representing efficiency measures.
ses. These segments were mapped to usage and demand data by rate classes and building type descriptions provided by EfficiencyOne, allowing for the customer segment level disaggregation in this study. Navigant used household counts for res...
AI summary The text describes how customer segments were mapped to usage and demand data by rate classes and building type descriptions provided by EfficiencyOne. Navigant used household counts for residential and floorspace for BNI as stock bases to scale customer adoption, applying end-use intensities derived from Nova Scotia Power’s 2018 End Use Intensity Model to the load forecast before DSM.
13.16 28% Total 46.60 100% Source: Navigant analysis 2.2 End Use Definitions The next step in the base year calibration analysis involved the establishment of specific end uses for each customer sector. This potential study defines end use...
AI summary The document discusses the calibration analysis of base year data, focusing on defining end uses for each customer sector. End uses are described as specific energy needs, such as space heating, and are used for binning potential estimates and quality control in the energy efficiency and demand response study.
estimates, and for quality control steps to check the range of savings forecasts against the estimated end use consumption. Figure 2-6. End Uses by Sector Residential BNI Lighting Lighting HVAC HVAC Domestic Hot Water Refrigeration Refrige...
AI summary The text discusses the estimation of savings forecasts and quality control steps to ensure accuracy, referencing Figure 2-6 which categorizes end uses by sector. It also mentions the development of fuel share and equipment data based on the 2019 Nova Scotia Baseline Study results for space heating and domestic hot water heating.
d on the segmentations defined in the previous sections, using the 2019 Nova Scotia Baseline Study results for space heating, and domestic hot water heating. These shares are available in Appendix B. 2.4 End Use Allocations End use allocat...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology for segmenting energy consumption based on the 2019 Nova Scotia Baseline Study and the use of end use allocations to categorize energy consumption by customer application. EfficiencyOne provided data on electricity consumption for 2018, which was used in the energy efficiency modeling portion of the study.
i. Retrofit (RET): where the model considers the baseline to be the existing equipment, and uses the energy and demand savings between the existing equipment and the efficient technology during technical potential calculations. RET also ap...
AI summary The text outlines three approaches—Retrofit, Replace On Burnout, and New Construction—for calculating energy and demand savings in efficiency programs. Each method defines a baseline technology and compares it with an efficient technology, considering costs and savings during economic screening.
2. Sector, and End Use Mapping: The team mapped each measure to the appropriate end uses, customer segments and sectors. Where Nova Scotia-specific information was not available, Navigant utilized secondary data, including internal Navigan...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology used to map energy efficiency measures to customer segments and sectors, utilizing both primary and secondary data sources. It details the process of estimating annual energy consumption, peak demand, fuel type applicability, measure lifetime, and incremental costs for various technologies.
same baseline technology density into a single competition group to avoid the double-counting of savings. (Appendix A provides further explanation on competition groups). 7 See the accompanying model input workbook for density and saturati...
AI summary The document discusses approaches for characterizing energy efficiency measures, including the use of program evaluation data, technical reference manual algorithms, and engineering analysis. It emphasizes avoiding double-counting of savings by grouping technologies with similar baseline technology density.
Engineering Analysis: Navigant used appropriate engineering algorithms to calculate energy savings for any measures not included in ENS programs or available TRMs. 3.3.2 Incremental Costs Navigant relied primarily on EfficiencyOne-provided...
AI summary Navigant used engineering algorithms and data from EfficiencyOne and TRMs to calculate energy savings. They relied on the 2019 Nova Scotia Baseline Study for building stock and density data and incorporated future code and standards adjustments based on Canada’s Forward Regulatory Plan 2019-2021.
as yet-formalized future planned Amendments. Building code impacts are based on publicly-available information regarding Canada’s future goals with respect to building code evolution and adoption. 8 See the accompanying EE measure input wo...
AI summary The document outlines Navigant's approach to estimating the technical potential of energy efficiency and demand response in Nova Scotia, using the DSMSim™ model. It emphasizes replacing baseline measures with efficient technologies wherever technically feasible, regardless of cost or market factors.
te the technical potential for demand-side resources considered for this study. DSMSim™ is a bottom-up technology-diffusion and stock-tracking model implemented using a System Dynamics framework. 9 9 See Sterman, John D. Business Dynamics:...
AI summary The document discusses the technical potential for energy efficiency and demand response in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It highlights the use of DSMSim™, a bottom-up model, to estimate electricity savings potential by sector, with specific figures provided for the residential and BNI sectors.
Page 38 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 5. ENERGY EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POTENTIAL RESULTS This section describes the economic savings potential, which is potential that meets a prescribed level...
AI summary This section discusses the calculation of economic potential for energy efficiency in Nova Scotia, focusing on measures that meet a cost-effectiveness threshold of TRC 1.0. It explains how economic potential is derived from technical potential by including only cost-effective measures.
e net benefits of energy efficiency measures from combined stakeholder viewpoint of the program administrator and the customers. The TRC benefit-cost ratio is calculated in the model using Equation 1. Equation 1. Benefit-Cost Ratio for Tot...
AI summary The text discusses the Total Resource Cost (TRC) benefit-cost ratio calculation used to evaluate the net benefits of energy efficiency measures from the combined stakeholder viewpoint of the program administrator and customers. It explains how the TRC ratio is derived using present value calculations and how economic potential is determined based on the TRC test results.
that provides the greatest electric savings potential is included in the summation of economic potential. This approach ensures that double-counting is not present in the reported economic potential. ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 39...
AI summary The study presents economic electricity savings potential by sector, noting that residential and BNI sectors show similar growth rates between technical and economic potential. High avoided costs from the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan make high-saving measures more likely to be cost-effective, reducing the gap between technical and economic demand potential.
industrial processes which can be difficult to address through DSM programs. This emphasizes the relative importance of HVAC equipment potential and remaining potential in BNI lighting in Nova Scotia. Figure 5-5. EE Economic Potential, Ele...
AI summary The text discusses the economic potential of energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) in Nova Scotia, emphasizing the importance of HVAC equipment and BNI lighting. It highlights trends in winter peak demand savings and notes the impact of fuel switching and line loss factors on residential sector calculations.
5 Figure 5-10. EE Economic Potential, 2021 Top 40 BNI Measures for Electricity Savings (GWh, gross at generator) Source: Navigant analysis ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 49 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential...
AI summary The document presents figures analyzing the economic potential of energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) measures in Nova Scotia for 2021. It highlights the top 40 BNI and residential measures for electricity savings and winter peak demand reduction, noting that most technically feasible measures are economically viable, as they pass a TRC test of 1.0.
not intended to be program-specific and are most reasonable when results are considered in aggregate, the methodology presented here focuses primarily on portfolio-level or sector-level approaches. ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 52 N...
AI summary The methodology for estimating energy efficiency (EE) market potential in Nova Scotia uses the Total Resource Cost (TRC) as the primary economic screen, with adjustments to diffusion parameters based on historical achievements. Administrative costs are included, and re-participation rates are assumed at 85% after measure life. Budget constraints are not applied.
y efficiency investment is different for residential and BNI customers. 10 The model uses this information to simulate how customers in each sector will accept measures with differing payback periods. Since the payback time of a technology...
AI summary The text discusses the differences in efficiency investment between residential and BNI customers and explains how the model simulates technology adoption based on payback periods. It also addresses the dynamic nature of equilibrium market share and outlines two approaches for calculating it. Behavioral measures are treated differently due to their low costs and reliance on marketing and incentives.
tor. Since ongoing program administrator support is required to achieve behaviour measure savings, the incentives provided to repeat adopters are incurred multiple times throughout the study horizon. 6.7 Energy Efficiency Model Calibration...
AI summary The document discusses the ongoing support required by program administrators to achieve energy efficiency savings and the challenges of calibrating energy efficiency models due to the lack of a future world for comparison. Navigant took steps to ensure the reasonableness of forecast model results.
ipient of model results with a level of comfort that simulated results are reasonable. For this study, Navigant took a number of steps to ensure that forecast model results were reasonable, including: • Identifying the subset of potential...
AI summary Navigant Consulting ensured the reasonableness of forecast model results by comparing simulated savings to historical achievements from ENS programs, focusing on lighting measures and using 2017 data for calibration.
Page 55 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 the calibration process. It is important to note that although the team calibrated to historical results for this subset of measures, the model’s resul...
AI summary The study discusses the calibration process for the Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study, noting that while historical results were used for a subset of measures, the model's total market potential may differ from past program savings due to the inclusion of new measures and the exclusion of some historical ones.
reness. If the model accurately depicts the system that it attempts to simulate, results (Navigant Simulated Backcast) should be on the same order as actuals (EfficiencyOne’s Historical Achievements). It is worth noting that because DSMSim...
AI summary The document discusses the accuracy of a structural systems dynamics model (DSMSimTM) in simulating energy efficiency technology adoption in Nova Scotia. It notes that while the model fits historical data well for most years, it could not fully explain high savings in 2016, potentially due to external factors. The model's structure and function are validated by the strong fit in subsequent years.
d from the cumulative potential. It is then assumed that 85% reparticipate (get added back into potential with a reset EUL), while the remaining 15% are included in available stock for later adoption. As shown in Figure 8-1, the cumulative...
AI summary The document discusses energy efficiency (EE) market potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045, showing cumulative electricity savings under different scenarios. The base case reaches 2,690 GWh in 2045, representing 35% of economic potential, while the maximum scenario reaches 3,415 GWh. The cost effectiveness screen requires a TRC ratio of 0.7, leading to increasing market potential as a percentage of forecast electricity consumption.
Page 62 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Figure 8-3 show incremental annual electricity savings as a percent of sales for each scenario. The base scenario achieves 1.1% of sales in 2021 and de...
AI summary The study analyzes the incremental annual electricity savings from energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) scenarios in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. The base scenario shows a decline in savings over time, attributed to technology saturation in sectors like BNI lighting. Residential and BNI sectors show early saturation, while the commercial sector maintains consistent potential, leading to potential divergence in scenarios after 25 years.
x F. Figure 8-13. EE Base Case Market Potential, Cumulative Electricity Savings by Customer Segment (GWh, net at generator) Source: Navigant analysis ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 73 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response...
AI summary The document presents figures illustrating the energy efficiency (EE) base case market potential, showing cumulative electricity savings and winter peak demand savings by customer segment. Residential single-family market rate, industrial, and large commercial segments are highlighted as dominant contributors.
2037 $38.36 $8.42 $8.60 $55.38 2038 $37.92 $8.26 $8.47 $54.65 2039 $37.79 $8.12 $8.33 $54.24 2040 $37.69 $7.95 $8.16 $53.80 2041 $36.10 $7.67 $7.87 $51.64 2042 $35.76 $7.51 $7.71 $50.98 2043 $35.28 $7.34 $7.54 $50.16 2044 $34.84 $7.18 $7.3...
AI summary The document presents projected savings and costs for energy efficiency and demand response programs in Nova Scotia from 2037 to 2045. It defines non-programmatic savings as reductions in savings potential due to codes and standards, and freeridership, emphasizing that these savings do not represent total impacts outside of DSM programs.
gs to align with NS Power’s IRP end-use inputs. The results of this analysis are provided in Appendix G. This data has been summarized in the appendix at the sector level due to the volume of data. ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 82 N...
AI summary A parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of varying input parameters on the cumulative achievable energy savings potential by 2045 in the Base scenario. Seven input variables were tested, with CO2 prices and achievable potential B/C screening thresholds varied unidirectionally. The model's non-linear components result in asymmetrical effects from parameter changes.
has multiple non-linear components, the effects of varying a parameter is often asymmetrical. For each sensitivity, all other variables were held constant, allowing individual effects to be observed. Residential achievable potential sensit...
AI summary The text discusses the sensitivity analysis of residential achievable potential to various parameters, highlighting the impact of net-to-gross ratio, marketing effects, and incentive changes. It explains how these factors influence customer awareness, adoption of efficient measures, and the inclusion of measures in achievable potential based on the TRC screening threshold.
rket characterization process for the DR assessment aimed to segment the market appropriately for the analysis. Specifically, Navigant aggregated data on key pieces of information, such as customer ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Ltd. Page 86 N...
AI summary The document discusses the market characterization process for demand response (DR) assessment, focusing on segmenting the market using customer data, rate schedules, and segmentation methods established in previous studies.
ted winter peak demand by customer class and segment over the potential analysis period. The baseline projections aimed to define and forecast customer data for the study period, similar to the market 16 These business types were sourced f...
AI summary This text outlines the methodology for projecting customer counts and winter peak demand by customer class and building type, using data from 2018 as a baseline. It details steps to disaggregate and blend customer counts based on various factors, including rate classes and business types.
ame distribution as NSP customers • Disaggregate Residential accounts into Market Rate, Low Income, and Charitable Premises using NSP data on Charitable Premises and Low-Income rates Figure 10-5 and Figure 10-6 summarize the account count...
AI summary The document discusses customer class and building type account count projections, peak period definitions, and methods for calculating peak demand. It outlines the process for developing baseline peak demand projections using historical load data, end use shares, and energy sales forecasts.
ower End Use Model results to obtain end use shares for each building Determine Energy Sales after DSM •Subtract Navigant's EE potential study results from NS Power sales forecast before Calculate Bottom-Up Peak Demand •Apply coincident pe...
AI summary The document outlines a methodology for determining energy sales after demand-side management (DSM) by using end use shares and subtracting energy efficiency (EE) potential study results from NS Power sales forecasts. It also describes the process of calibrating peak demand projections and developing separate projections for electric vehicles (EVs) based on adoption forecasts.
Page 90 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 type and end use. The primary data sources for developing these estimates were 8760 system data, forecasted retail sales data, end use model results fr...
AI summary The document discusses the development of winter peak demand forecasts by customer class and building type using data from NSP and other sources. Three scenarios (low, base, mid) are considered, with higher energy efficiency savings leading to lower peak demand projections. The peak period definition differs from the EE study.
ntry. Projections on new PEV sales are generated through an enhanced Bass Diffusion framework, combining a logit technology competition model that generates the long-run equilibrium market share for 18 Battery projections are typically an...
AI summary The document discusses projections for Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) adoption in Nova Scotia using an enhanced Bass Diffusion framework and a logit technology competition model. It notes that Nova Scotia has a low adoption rate, with only 130 PEVs on the road as of late 2018, and forecasts that 1% of vehicles will be PEVs by 2030 and 4% by 2045.
customer incentives, O&M, etc. Global Parameters Program Lifetime, Discount Rate, Inflation Rate, Line Losses, Avoided Costs 27 Source: Navigant 26 The DR analysis assumed “default with opt-out” type of offer under the High Scenario and th...
AI summary The document discusses the calculation of technical and market potential for demand response (DR) programs in Nova Scotia, emphasizing that technical potential is based on 100% participation and does not account for overlaps between sub-options. Navigant used data from the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan and avoided costs provided by NS Power in 2018.
12.1 Energy Efficiency • Near-term Electricity Savings: The majority of near-term savings are from the Res HVAC, Res Lighting, and BNI Lighting end uses. Residential screw-in LED Bulb ranks as the highest electricity- saving market potenti...
AI summary The text discusses energy efficiency initiatives in Nova Scotia, focusing on near-term electricity and winter peak demand savings from residential and BNI lighting and HVAC measures. It highlights the success of EfficiencyOne's programs, challenges due to market saturation and tightening codes, and the potential of HVAC fuel switching to remove end-use loads from homes.
1. Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential Study for the 25-year period 2021 to 2045 2. Demand Response (DR) Potential Study for the 25-year period 2021 to 2045 The main objective of the studies is to identify and quantify electricity and/or dema...
AI summary This document outlines the methodology for conducting energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) potential studies for Nova Scotia Power (NSP) over a 25-year period from 2021 to 2045. The studies aim to identify and quantify electricity and demand savings, disaggregated by sector and end use, to inform the development of NSP’s next Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
ded in Excel, to facilitate inspection by EfficiencyOne, regulatory intervenors and the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB). 1.1 Energy Efficiency Potential Navigant’s Demand-Side Management Simulator (DSMSimTM) model, a transparen...
AI summary The document outlines the use of Navigant’s Demand-Side Management Simulator (DSMSimTM) model for energy efficiency potential analysis. The model will be customized for this study and used to estimate energy and peak demand savings across multiple scenarios, with stakeholder input and a focus on best practices in evaluation.
combinations of these levels of granularity • Powerful sensitivity and scenario analysis capability to identify key assumptions and largest leverage points • Provides histograms of top-saving measures, scatter plots to view savings versus...
AI summary The document outlines the use of a modeling tool with sensitivity analysis and scenario capabilities to evaluate energy efficiency measures. It references the 2020-2022 DSM Plan and the 2018 Potential Study Update, targeting a Total Resource Cost (TRC) threshold of 1.0 for economic potential and 0.7 TRC for achievable potential.
added compared to the recent measure set developed. 2 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 4 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A 1.2 Demand Response Potential To determine the variou...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology for assessing demand response (DR) and energy efficiency potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It mentions the use of Navigant’s DRSim™ and DSMSimTM models to simulate DR options and energy efficiency programs, including direct load control and peak time rebates.
ulatory intervenors and the UARB, the model inputs and outputs will be provided in Excel. 2. Approach to Potentials 2.1 Approach to Energy Efficiency Potential The EE analysis will assess three potentials (1) technical, (2) economic, and (...
AI summary The document outlines the approach to assessing energy efficiency potentials, including technical, economic, and achievable savings scenarios. The analysis involves multiple steps, such as defining customer segments, forecasting energy sales, and evaluating cost-effective measures over a 25-year period.
with technical, economic and achievable potential for 2021-2045 (25 years) 3 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 5 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A The specific activities involv...
AI summary The document outlines the process for developing baseline energy use, end use saturation, and sales forecasts as part of a study on Nova Scotia's energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021 to 2045. It emphasizes the importance of market characterization in the study.
Load Forecast 1. Energy forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts 2. Demand forecast Customer Accounts Forecast Nova Scotia Power forecasts Customer Demographics Nova Scotia customer surveys and other primary and secondary sources Measure-level...
AI summary The document outlines the inputs and assumptions used in energy and demand forecasting by Nova Scotia Power, including fuel shares, equipment shares, inflation rates, discount rates, and retail electricity rates. It also mentions the use of past program evaluations and line loss factors from DSM programs.
s) Institutional t) Industrial Region u) Based on first three characters of postal codes The first key output of the market characterization will be the development of the base year analysis. The base year will be calibrated against provin...
AI summary The document outlines the development of a base year analysis to profile Nova Scotia electricity consumption across customer sectors and segments, calibrated against Nova Scotia Power sales data from 2017 or 2018. This forms the first key output of the market characterization for the 2021-2045 study.
Page 7 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A We will develop the base year analysis based on a bottom-up assessment of electricity consumption. This bottom-up approach is illustrat...
AI summary The document outlines a bottom-up approach to analyzing electricity consumption for a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. The process starts with end-use equipment types and their efficiencies, aggregating data up to customer segments, sectors, and administrators.
As part of this effort, Navigant will collaborate with E1 on the segmentation. 6 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 8 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A The next step in the base...
AI summary The document outlines the process for establishing specific end uses for each customer sector and developing a reference case forecast for electricity demand in Nova Scotia. This reference case will serve as a baseline for evaluating the potential savings from energy efficiency and demand response initiatives.
trends to be applied to each customer segment. EUI trends are intended to reflect natural changes in electricity consumption as a result of two factors: (1) natural conservation and (2) natural growth. • Natural conservation is a well-esta...
AI summary The text discusses EUI trends in the residential sector, focusing on natural conservation and natural growth. It explains that natural conservation refers to customer-driven energy efficiency improvements, while natural growth reflects increased consumption due to factors like home electronics. The impact of future building codes and appliance standards on conservation potential is also addressed.
nd we are flexible as to which approach should be incorporated into the reference forecast and conservation potential estimates. The final step of the reference case forecast will be to apply the EUI trends and the stock growth rates to th...
AI summary The document outlines the process for developing a reference case forecast of electricity consumption, including applying EUI trends and stock growth rates to base year results. It also mentions the development of global assumptions such as inflation rate, discount rate, and avoided energy costs, as well as defining and characterizing energy efficiency measures.
Page 12 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A Figure 7. Link Between Market and Measure Characterization Navigant largely will leverage measure characterization analyses that have...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology for characterizing energy efficiency measures and estimating potential savings over a 25-year period from 2021 to 2045. It references prior studies and highlights the importance of energy savings, costs, and applicability in measure characterization.
direct install and rebate programs, for example) and the program delivery or administrative cost (upstream versus downstream). The achievable potential analysis will be addressed and reported at the sector level (residential and BNI) by en...
AI summary The document outlines the approach to analyzing achievable potential for energy efficiency programs, considering baseline market conditions, available technologies, customer behavior, and the state of the Nova Scotia electricity system. The analysis will be conducted at the sector level and will consider up to five scenarios due to budget and timeline constraints.
system peak demand o Number and type of customers o Sector-level energy and demand requirements o Net energy and system-peak demand savings, at the generator, of energy efficiency measures (after free-ridership, spillover, and interactive...
AI summary The document discusses the development of technical potential for energy efficiency and demand response measures, including system peak demand, customer data, and energy savings calculations. It outlines how energy savings can be characterized based on the type of measure, such as fixed savings for condensing water heaters or percentage-based savings for automated building controls.
segment consumption or per square foot; and, lastly, measures such as industrial ventilation heat recovery are well-suited for estimating energy savings as a percentage of end use consumption. The DSMSimTM model can appropriately handle sa...
AI summary The text discusses methods for estimating energy savings using the DSMSimTM model, focusing on technical potential calculations based on measure replacement types. It highlights differences in calculation approaches for retrofit, replace-on-burnout, and new construction measures, emphasizing the importance of considering future codes and standards in baseline assumptions.
X Technical Suitability (dimensionless) Total Technical Potential (TTP): TTP Y = TTP Y = ∑YEAR=2020 YEAR=2029 AITPYEAR
AI summary The text introduces a technical suitability metric and defines Total Technical Potential (TTP) as the sum of Annual Incremental Technical Potential (AITP) across the years 2020 to 2029.
measures, annual potential is equal to total potential, thus offering an instantaneous view of technical potential. The equation used to calculate technical potential for retrofit measures is provided below. Annual/Total Savings Potential...
AI summary The text explains how technical potential for retrofit measures is calculated, using annual/total savings potential equations. It also introduces the concept of competition groups, where certain efficient technologies compete for the same installation, such as different types of water heaters.
this study include: • Competing efficient technologies share the same baseline technology characteristics, including baseline technology densities, costs, and consumption • The total (baseline plus efficient) maximum densities of competing...
AI summary This text discusses the methodology for calculating energy efficiency (EE) technical potential, emphasizing the exclusion of overlapping measures within competition groups and the selection of the measure with the highest savings potential for inclusion in the model. It outlines the overall EE technical potential modelling framework and its key data inputs and outputs.
ious levels (sector, end use, etc.) and in certain units (GWh, MW, etc.). 16 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 18 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A Figure 10. Navigant’s Technic...
AI summary This section outlines the process for developing economic potential within the context of energy efficiency and demand response, referencing technical potential models and data flow.
l Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A Figure 10. Navigant’s Technical Potential Model Data Flow 2.1.3.2 Develop Economic Potential
AI summary The text discusses the development of economic potential as part of a study for the period 2021-2045, referencing a technical potential model data flow from Navigant.
Economic potential is a subset of technical potential and uses the same assumptions regarding immediate replacement as in technical potential, however, only includes those measures that have passed the cost-benefit (B/C) tests chosen for m...
AI summary The text explains economic potential, which includes measures that pass cost-benefit tests, specifically the TRC test with a B/C ratio of 1.0 or higher. It outlines how DSMSimTM calculates cost tests and includes administrative costs in economic potential calculations when aggregating measures into programs or portfolios.
across measures (e.g., at the end use, customer segment, sector, service territory or total level). If a competition group is composed of more than one measure that passes the TRC test, then 17 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 19 of 40 Nov...
AI summary The document discusses the evaluation of energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia for the period 2021-2045. It mentions the Total Resource Cost (TRC) test as a method for assessing measures across various levels such as end use, customer segment, sector, and service territory.
Page 19 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A the economic measure that provides the greatest savings potential is included in the summation of economic potential. This approach en...
AI summary The document outlines the methodology for calculating economic potential using the DSMSimTM model, which screens DSM measures based on a TRC threshold of 1.0 and integrates technical potential results to estimate economic savings. The model ensures no double-counting and provides outputs by cost-binned groups as needed.
This section presents the approach to calculating achievable potential, which is fundamentally more complex than the calculation of technical or economic potential. The potential study will estimate the annual and cumulative achievable pot...
AI summary The document outlines a method for calculating achievable energy efficiency (EE) potential by analyzing up to five scenarios with varying incentives. The process involves simulating market adoption of energy-efficient technologies, focusing on equilibrium market share and dynamic approaches. The study will consider stakeholder feedback and be limited to five scenarios due to budget and timeline constraints.
). For energy- efficient technologies, a key differentiating factor between the base technology and the efficient technology is the energy and cost savings associated with the efficient technology. Of course, that additional efficiency oft...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of energy and cost savings in energy-efficient technologies and how initial costs affect market share. Navigant is developing payback acceptance curves based on survey data to estimate consumer willingness to adopt efficiency measures, which will be used in the potential study for Nova Scotia.
incentive level, and any relevant market barriers. Develop and Run the Achievable Potential Model The overall achievable potential modelling framework is illustrated in Figure 16. We will draw on the results of the economic potential analy...
AI summary The text outlines the development and use of an achievable potential model to estimate the potential of energy efficiency and demand response measures that pass an economic screening process. The model uses economic potential analysis results and avoided costs to generate achievable potential outputs.
ent with how these customers are treated in the EE analysis. 30 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 32 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A 2.2.2 Step 2: Develop Baseline Projections...
AI summary This section outlines Step 2 of the process for developing baseline projections in the Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045. It discusses the selection of the base year, which is the latest year with full customer count and load data, either 2018 or 2017, and its consistency with the EE potential analysis.
hich is the latest year for which full customer count and load data is available, 2018 or 2017. The selection of the base year will be consistent with that used in the EE potential. The baseline projection for DR potential assessment entai...
AI summary The text outlines the process for projecting winter peak demand by customer segment and end use, using a bottom-up approach and calibrating it with Nova Scotia Power's projections. It emphasizes data sources such as retail sales, baseline sales projections, and load shapes to ensure accuracy in demand response potential assessments.
members for vetting these assumptions. Along with program costs and annual budgets, we also calculate levelized costs for DR programs. We routinely use levelized costs and potential savings results to develop supply curves, in which saving...
AI summary The document outlines the process for developing demand response (DR) potential estimates using a customized model, including key inputs such as system load, customer count, and load profiles, and outputs like the number of DR program participants by market segment.
o construct supply curves which stack up savings in ascending order of costs. 36 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 38 of 40 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix A 3. Modelling Assumptions...
AI summary The document outlines the key input assumptions used in modelling the technical and economic potential for energy efficiency and demand response in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045. It references figures that detail these assumptions for both technical and achievable potential scenarios.
dy were to: Develop customer data by sector and end use that is specific to Nova Scotia. Develop useful data to inform the Nova Scotia energy efficiency potential study. 1.3 Methodology Overview This study consisted of a multi-phased data...
AI summary This document outlines the methodology for a study on Nova Scotia's energy efficiency and demand response potential, involving two parallel surveys targeting residential and commercial sectors. The study uses a non-probability sampling approach, acknowledging limitations in statistical reliability but employing data weighting to improve reliability.
for 2021-2045 Appendix B 4.2.3 Controlling Energy Usage Figure 43 lists findings for controlling energy usage in BNI facilities.. Figure 43. BNI Controls Profile Measure / Characteristic Online Survey Findings Power Bars 94% of respondents...
AI summary The document presents findings from an online survey on energy usage controls in BNI facilities, highlighting the prevalence of power bars, computer servers, and the limited adoption of advanced technologies like smart power bars, variable frequency drives, and strategic energy management practices.
c) Top loading without an 8 agitator in the tub? 12. [ONLY POSE IF ‘1’ OR MORE IN Q.10] Of this/these [INSERT NUMBER FROM Q.10] clothes washer(s), how many are [TOTAL FOR A TO C MUST EQUAL OR BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS ENTERED IN Q.10] a. Less...
AI summary The text includes survey questions about the age of clothes washers and the number of refrigeration units in a home, likely part of a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia. These questions are used to gather data on appliance usage and age for analysis purposes.
649 209 393 493 240 414 444 205 653 164 165 139 150 UNWEIGHTED SAMPLE SIZE (#) 862 382 127 353 398 462 149 289 424 194 582 659 203 398 496 251 418 444 202 660 165 166 148 147 This table excludes responses of 'Don't know'. 6 Narrative Resea...
AI summary The text presents a table and a survey question from a residential electricity usage study conducted in 2019, focusing on the number of full-size refrigerators in homes, excluding mini fridges or wine fridges.
68 46 97 134 70 113 101 56 158 53 47 34 29 UNWEIGHTED SAMPLE SIZE (#) 220 102 25 93 120 99 34 86 100 42 157 175 45 98 136 76 112 108 58 162 56 49 35 29 This table excludes responses of 'Don't know'. 8 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Fi...
AI summary The text presents a table and a survey question about the number of stand-alone freezers in residential homes as part of a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia.
20 33 0 42 11 25 22 22 MEAN 5.2 5.7 5.5 4.7 5.1 5.4 4.5 5.6 5.4 4.6 5.6 5.7 4.4 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.2 4.5 8.6 3.5 5.8 5.1 5.9 6.3 This question was randomly posed to approximately one in four respondents. 29 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date F...
AI summary The document presents data from a 2019 electricity usage survey of residential consumers in Nova Scotia, including mean values and a narrative about the study's methodology, with a reference to a report by Navigant.
6 2 0 1 5 7 2 1 5 2 1 8 1 3 1 1 5 2 3 2 1 0 1 WEIGHTED SAMPLE SIZE (#) 968 412 145 411 463 502 225 321 422 251 628 669 299 423 572 258 447 521 218 750 164 169 142 156 UNWEIGHTED SAMPLE SIZE (#) 970 439 135 396 439 528 189 329 452 235 640 6...
AI summary The document presents statistical data from a sample size analysis related to the Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045. The study was filed on August 14, 2019, and is part of Appendix B-3.
8 11 6 7 9 6 5 13 13 7 2 4 10 4 9 4 4 2 8 577 256 74 247 274 300 157 203 217 148 388 384 193 126 572 155 263 314 133 445 122 116 58 67 52 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 52 of 54 Nova Scotia Energy Efficienc...
AI summary The document presents a table from a 2019 electricity usage survey focusing on residential electric heating types in Nova Scotia. It is part of a study assessing energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021 to 2045.
41.6 43.4 37.3 38.3 46.6 55.1 38.5 42.5 . 53.7 36.0 34.9 44.1 40.9 46.1 41.3 12.2 28.9 43.8 88.3 53 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 53 of 54 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study...
AI summary The document presents a table from the Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045, focusing on residential electricity usage surveys conducted in 2019. It includes a question about who pays for household electricity, with a range of numerical data likely representing survey responses.
423 572 258 454 548 220 782 167 169 142 156 UNWEIGHTED SAMPLE SIZE (#) 1002 464 135 403 450 548 202 333 467 246 651 681 321 428 573 268 458 544 218 784 169 170 150 153 54 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 54 o...
AI summary The document presents a table from a 2019 electricity usage survey for businesses in Nova Scotia, asking respondents to indicate the specific location of their business. The table includes sample sizes and is part of a larger study on energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021 to 2045.
158 99 18 41 93 60 43 45 36 40 57 29 49 90 41 3 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 3 of 51 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix B-4 NAVIGANT 2019 Electricity...
AI summary The text presents a survey question from a 2019 electricity usage study in Nova Scotia, asking businesses about the number of computer servers they have onsite. The study is part of a larger energy efficiency and demand response potential analysis for 2021-2045.
5 0 2 3 2 4 3 2 2 6 4 2 5 5 4 4 5 2 1 8 4 0 8 2 2 9 4 2 0 6 or more 18 21 30 7 18 14 6 15 32 7 18 41 15 24 22 SAMPLE SIZE (#) 161 95 20 46 93 64 47 46 37 41 57 34 55 92 41 MEAN 6.4 8.5 4.5 2.9 6.8 5.3 1.4 5.7 13.7 2.9 6.5 13.1 5.0 7.6 7.4...
AI summary The document presents statistical data from a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia for the period 2021-2045. The data includes sample sizes, mean values, and responses categorized by different groups. The study was filed on August 14, 2019, and is referenced as NAV002-1000.
122 70 18 34 71 48 32 41 28 28 46 29 41 75 32 5 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 5 of 51 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix B-4 NAVIGANT 2019 Electricity...
AI summary The text presents a table from the Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study, focusing on the number of hot water heaters in business locations across Nova Scotia. This data is part of a larger survey conducted in 2019 to assess energy usage patterns.
131 77 16 38 81 46 39 41 30 31 48 30 43 83 36 MEAN .4 .3 1.2 .3 .5 .3 .4 .4 .5 .1 .4 .6 .6 .5 1.1 Responses of greater than 6 were excluded from calculation of the mean. 10 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 10...
AI summary The document provides statistical data on the number of variable frequency drives (VFD) in heating, cooling, and ventilation systems across businesses in Nova Scotia, as part of the 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys. The mean value is calculated, and responses exceeding 6 were excluded.
6 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 14 0 0 13 0 14 MID 4 (4-7) 19 19 0 20 17 22 0 9 33 0 11 43 13 29 29 BOTTOM 4 (0-3) 78 75 100 80 78 78 100 82 67 86 89 57 75 71 57 MEAN 1.5 1.6 .0 1.4 1.7 1.0 .0 1.2 2.0 1.7 .9 2.3 1.6 1.8 3.3 This question was randomly pose...
AI summary The text presents statistical data from a 2019 electricity usage survey of businesses in Nova Scotia, including various metrics and categories. It also references a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential for the period 2021-2045.
25 8 14 29 0 0 43 0 33 14 25 MID 4 (4-7) 22 21 40 13 17 25 29 29 0 13 29 25 17 29 0 BOTTOM 4 (0-3) 63 50 60 88 58 67 57 43 100 88 29 75 50 57 75 MEAN 2.8 3.8 2.6 1.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 4.1 .0 1.3 5.0 2.0 3.8 3.3 2.3 This question was randomly pos...
AI summary The text includes a table with numerical data and a reference to a survey on electricity usage conducted in 2019. It also mentions a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential in Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045.
14 0 13 0 9 18 0 14 7 8 17 MID 4 (4-7) 38 37 50 40 33 50 33 38 45 36 36 57 53 37 50 BOTTOM 4 (0-3) 54 53 50 60 52 50 53 63 45 45 64 29 40 54 33 MEAN 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.4 3.6 3.7 2.3 4.7 3.5 3.0 5.0 This question was randomly pos...
AI summary The text presents statistical data from a 2019 electricity usage survey of businesses in Nova Scotia, including metrics like MID 4, BOTTOM 4, and MEAN values. It references a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential for the period 2021-2045, and mentions the filing of a document by NAVIGANT.
0 0 0 13 0 0 11 0 0 13 13 8 0 MID 4 (4-7) 38 33 67 33 36 50 67 20 44 67 63 13 38 33 33 BOTTOM 4 (0-3) 57 60 33 67 64 38 33 80 44 33 38 75 50 58 67 MEAN 3.1 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.5 4.6 4.0 1.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.0 This question was randomly...
AI summary The document presents statistical data from a 2019 electricity usage survey for businesses in Nova Scotia, including usage patterns and potential for energy efficiency and demand response initiatives. The data is part of a broader study on energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021 to 2045.
0 13 0 0 11 0 0 13 13 8 0 MID 4 (4-7) 38 33 67 33 36 50 67 20 44 67 63 13 38 33 33 BOTTOM 4 (0-3) 57 60 33 67 64 38 33 80 44 33 38 75 50 58 67 MEAN 3.1 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.5 4.6 4.0 1.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.0 This question was randomly pose...
AI summary The document includes a table and narrative from a 2019 electricity usage survey for businesses in Nova Scotia, part of a study on energy efficiency and demand response potential up to 2045. The data appears to be part of a larger analysis conducted by Navigant.
or implementing a(n) [ITEM SEEN IN Q21]. Would you generally pursue an energy efficiency project where the cost to your business after utility rebates is $7,500 if the project saved $[500] per year? REGION BUSINESS PREMISES FT EMPLOYEES SQ...
AI summary The text presents survey data on business willingness to pursue energy efficiency projects, with a focus on cost and savings. It also references a hypothetical energy efficiency project that does not affect the quality of lighting, heating, and cooling but changes energy consumption.
18 7 25 19 0 0 78 8 18 47 15 26 19 SAMPLE SIZE (#) 151 89 17 45 83 62 53 53 45 37 55 34 52 90 37 MEAN 155 187 54 131 147 90 3 19 508 20 162 192 142 110 51 MEDIAN 14 25 18 8 12 18 2 18 125 2 17 70 10 13 10 42 Narrative Research NAV002-1000...
AI summary The document presents data from the 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys - Business, focusing on the square footage of company business properties. It includes sample sizes, mean, and median values, providing insights into business energy usage patterns in Nova Scotia.
149 88 17 44 90 55 46 46 34 38 55 34 57 103 44 48 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 48 of 51 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix B-4 NAVIGANT 2019 Electrici...
AI summary The text presents a table from a 2019 electricity usage survey for businesses in Nova Scotia, focusing on the types of heating systems they currently use. The table is part of a larger study on energy efficiency and demand response potential for the period 2021-2045.
e., a heat 8 8 10 7 10 6 16 4 0 11 12 4 4 8 15 pump system that has an indoor unit placed on a wall, that typically only heats a small area of the building) 6 8 0 4 8 3 3 8 0 0 12 4 7 6 11 49 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: Augu...
AI summary The text provides data from the 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys - Business, focusing on the types of electric heating systems used by businesses in Nova Scotia. It includes a table (Table 32) that categorizes different heating systems, such as heat pump systems, and their distribution across various business locations.
183 112 20 51 104 71 51 48 45 44 61 38 59 108 42 51 Narrative Research NAV002-1000 Date Filed: August 14, 2019 Page 51 of 51 Appendix C: Demand Response Model Inputs Filed Electronically This page is intentionally left blank Appendix D: De...
AI summary The document contains appendices related to demand response and energy efficiency models, including inputs, outputs, and loadshape disaggregation, all filed electronically and left intentionally blank.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
182 passages
.......................................................................... 2 1 Background........................................................................................................11 1.1 Nova Scotia Policy Landscape .............
AI summary The document outlines a study analyzing Nova Scotia's greenhouse gas emissions and energy demand using the PATHWAYS model. It covers policy context, methodology, scenario analysis, and results on emissions reduction, energy demand, and biofuel usage, concluding with implications for climate and energy strategies.
0 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 26 of 64 2.5.3 BUILDING SECTOR 2.5.3.1 Base Year In 2016, Nova Scotia had a population of about 942,000 people residing in about 4...
AI summary The 2016 base year analysis for Nova Scotia's buildings sector decomposes energy use by device type and quantity, using NRCAN and NEMS data. Residential sectors use physical device counts (e.g., furnaces), while commercial sectors use square footage metrics due to heterogeneity. Data gaps are filled with NEMS regional data.
Total Energy by Fuel 1.88 3% All Buildings Subsectors 62.59 100% +Building Shell is modeled to represent potential deep home retrofits and other measures which significantly reduce space conditioning demands. By itself a Building Shell sto...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) reference scenario, modeling energy efficiency measures like 'Building Shell' retrofits reducing space heating demand by 20%. It categorizes energy uses (Residential/Commercial 'Other') and notes E3's role in modeling efficiency scenarios.
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 38 of 64 2.5.6 OTHER ENERGY (INDUSTRIAL) SECTOR The “other energy” category mainly consists of industrial energy activities. Because energy emissio...
AI summary The 'other energy' category includes industrial energy activities, where emissions are relatively low compared to buildings and transportation. Efficiency and electrification measures are not modeled for industry in main mitigation scenarios, but emissions decline due to biofuels replacing up to 72% of diesel consumption. Non-energy greenhouse gas emissions include methane and other high global warming potential gases from agriculture, waste, and industrial processes, with a 30% reduction target by 2050.
1,051 423 Total Excl. 352 128 Purpose-Grown 36 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 42 of 64 3 Results The results in this section demonstrate the transformative change...
AI summary The text discusses the need for transformative changes to achieve 80% GHG reductions by 2050, comparing the Reference scenario with three mitigation scenarios. It highlights sectoral differences in emissions allocation and notes that electricity sector modeling was not detailed in this study, with emissions budgets based on implied intensities consistent with a deeply decarbonized system.
order to assess the feasibility of a given budget, and the utility’s ability to reduce emissions to a given level while meeting growing demand, ensuring reliability, and maintaining reasonable costs. Across the three mitigation scenarios,...
AI summary The document discusses three mitigation scenarios for reducing emissions, focusing on varying levels of electrification in buildings and transportation. It highlights the High Electrification, Moderate Electrification, and Building Electrification Only scenarios, noting that while all aim for an 80% emissions reduction, the extent of electrification differs. Non-energy emissions are assumed to decrease by 30% across all scenarios, with remaining emissions coming from hard-to-electrify sectors.
d to buildings and transportation. Across the sectors, remaining emissions include emissions from hard-to-electrify end-uses, such as long-haul trucks, aviation, shipping and industrial activities. 38 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmenta...
AI summary The text discusses remaining emissions in Nova Scotia's 2050 mitigation scenario, focusing on hard-to-electrify sectors such as long-haul trucks, aviation, shipping, and industrial activities. It also outlines the sectoral share of carbon emissions and greenhouse gas reductions by measure.
and Clean Electricity measures are interdependent and were not modeled separately in this analysis. Thus, allocations to these two categories are preliminary approximations. 3.2 Final Energy Demand Final energy demand includes demand for e...
AI summary The text discusses the relationship between Clean Electricity and energy efficiency measures, highlighting that electrification, such as through heat pumps and electric vehicles, significantly reduces final energy demand. In the High Electrification scenario, final energy demand is about 20% lower than in other scenarios due to efficiency gains from electrification and building improvements.
44 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 50 of 64 Table 8. Electricity Sector Demand and Emissions 2005 2016 Reference Building Moderate High (2050) Electrification Elect...
AI summary The table presents electricity sector demand and emissions for Nova Scotia from 2005 to 2050 under different scenarios, showing reductions in both demand and emissions intensity. The data highlights the impact of electrification and other factors on future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
a global market. Nova Scotia should therefore monitor the development of these emerging energy sectors and perform more detailed assessments of their potential deployment in Nova Scotia. 4. Long lifetimes require early action. Investments...
AI summary The document emphasizes the need for Nova Scotia to monitor emerging energy sectors and invest early in long-lasting infrastructure to meet 2050 emissions targets. It highlights the importance of electrification, especially for passenger vehicles, and the need for public charging infrastructure to support adoption.
ption. NSPI could start by defining adoption targets, determining the infrastructure and initiatives needed to achieve those targets, and developing a strategy to support those markets. 5. Building electrification is dependent on reducing...
AI summary The text discusses the need for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) to define electrification adoption targets, reduce costs, and enhance incentives to support widespread use of cold climate heat pumps. It highlights the importance of evaluating peak electricity demand impacts and considers alternative strategies like low-carbon biofuels for building decarbonization.
will be developed outside of the model using E3’s Pro Forma financial model Utility and Review Board M09498 – Approval of pre-tax WACC/AFUDC rate for both capital and non-capital matters 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 4 Nova Scotia Power I...
AI summary The document discusses the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions, including load forecasts based on NS Power’s annual report and the PATHWAYS electrification scenarios. It also references the application of demand-side management (DSM) scenarios from E1’s Potential Study and the inclusion of a 'No New DSM' scenario for calculating avoided costs.
FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 75 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 77 of 112 2020 IRP: FUEL PRICING MARCH 11, 2020 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 76 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 78 of 112 SERVICE PROVIDERS •...
AI summary The document outlines the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions for fuel pricing, specifically for coal and petcoke, developed by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). The forecasting approach includes adjustments based on transportation costs and market insights from third-party providers.
Appendix B Page 80 of 112 FUNDAMENTAL PRICE FORECASTS – COAL & PETCOKE - EVA Commodity Highlights Provider • Continued decline in demand for coal in the US and Europe as coal Energy Ventures power plants and other sources of coal demand ar...
AI summary This section discusses the future price forecasts for coal and petcoke, highlighting declining demand in the US and Europe, strong demand in Asia, and the role of petcoke in cement kilns and power generation. It also references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Assumptions Set.
= Henry Hub + AECO + Fuel & Tolls Nova + Fuel & + Nil Tolls Westbrook to Tufts Source: Global Platts Source: Global Cove modelled as variable, Analytics (4Q2019) Platts Analytics TCPL Empress to E. Hereford High Case (June 2019) and PNGTS...
AI summary The document outlines natural gas pricing assumptions for winter and summer periods, including components such as commodity prices, basis, transportation costs, and market premiums. It references various sources, including Global Platts Analytics, and includes specific values such as a $2.50/MMBtu regasification cost for LNG.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix C Page 6 of 12 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Scenarios & Modeling Plan March 11, 2020 1.2 Load Changes This driver represents the impact provincial greenhouse gas reduction and/or “net zero” poli...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) discusses load changes driven by provincial greenhouse gas reduction policies, such as the Sustainable Development Goals Act (SDGA), and evaluates three load scenarios: business as usual, moderate electrification, and high electrification. These scenarios consider the impact of electrification on the electricity sector based on E3's Pathways assessment.
GHG Scenario Load Driver Coal End Date Comparator GHG Case High Electrification 2030 Comparator GHG Case Moderate Electrification 2030 Comparator GHG Case Business as Usual 2030 Comparator GHG Case High Electrification 2040 Comparator GHG...
AI summary The text presents a table of potential candidate scenarios for GHG (Greenhouse Gas) reduction, including various electrification levels and end dates for coal use, such as 'Comparator GHG Case', 'Net Zero 2050', and 'Accelerated Net Zero 2045', with different timeframes (2030 and 2040).
ffects ($MM) $16,431 Essential Grid Services • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,805 Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2035 • Regional Integration: n/a Average Annual Relative Rate Impact...
AI summary The document outlines key metrics from Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including financial effects, CO2 emissions, and scenario evaluations. It highlights the Essential Grid Services, Resource Adequacy, and Plan Robustness, while noting non-compliance with the Sustainable Development Goals Act and increased exposure to natural gas prices.
5-yr NPVRR w/ End Effects ($MM) $16,599 $16,347 • NPVRR is increased relative to Base DSM case for all three time periods Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $7,145 $6,786 • No significant change relative to 2.0A Resource Adequacy &...
AI summary The document provides a comparison of 5-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) figures, showing increases relative to the Base DSM case. It also outlines changes in CO2 emissions and mentions the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Demand Side Management (DSM) scenarios.
(MID DSM) M I D E L E C . / M I D D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,288 $12,983 General Notes • 1 coal unit is retired earlier t...
AI summary The document compares the 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under the Mid DSM scenario versus the Base (2.1C) scenario. The Mid DSM case involves retiring an additional gas steam unit by 2045 and replacing capacity through demand-side management, combustion turbine capacity, and demand response programs. The NPVRR is higher in the Mid DSM case, and there are no changes in essential grid services or reliability tie timelines.
(LOW DSM) L O W E L E C . / L O W D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.0C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,087 $12,076 General Notes • Similar resource plan overall to...
AI summary The scenario analysis compares the Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under a Low DSM scenario versus a 2.0C Base DSM scenario. The Low DSM scenario shows a delayed coal retirement and increased CO2 emissions in the 2030s, with incremental combustion turbine resources added by 2045. The NPVRR is slightly higher in the Low DSM scenario when end effects are considered.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix E Page 49 of 72 3.1C.DSM- 7 (MID DSM) M I D E L E C . / M I D D S M / A C C E L . N E T Z E R O 2 0 4 5 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (3.1C...
AI summary The document compares the 25-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under different Demand Side Management (DSM) scenarios. The Mid DSM scenario results in slightly lower NPVRR compared to the Base DSM case, with a reduction in battery installations due to lower firm capacity requirements by 2045.
25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,820 $12,983 General Notes • Low wind price advances build of significant wind quantities from 2030 in base case to 2025; Reliability Tie is advanced as well to enable integration • Earlier build of Regional Interconne...
AI summary The document discusses the 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under different scenarios, highlighting changes in wind energy build timelines, reliability tie advancements, and coal unit retirements. It also notes impacts on CO2 emissions and rate impacts from 2021 to 2045.
ent and replacement energy costs, NPVs incorporating MT/ST Production 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,996 $7,022 Costs are not significantly lower than the base scenario 2.1C Essential Grid Services • This run is intended as a test case to understand...
AI summary The text discusses the financial and environmental impacts of different energy scenarios, including NPVRR, CO2 emissions, and grid reliability considerations. It highlights the importance of grid services, reliability tie, and regional integration in managing wind energy penetration and ensuring system flexibility.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,939 $12,983 General Notes • While the Mersey system was economically retained in the screening phase, this sensitivity was completed in order to understand how cap...
AI summary The document presents sensitivity analysis results for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under different scenarios, including the retirement of Mersey Hydro in 2025 and adjustments to regional integration and wind build timelines. It also discusses the impact of Mersey decommissioning on grid stability and associated costs.
PRICES) M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,854 $12,983 General Notes • Under this sensitivity, gas and...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation results for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR) under a sensitivity case with increased gas and import prices. The analysis shows minimal changes to the resource plan, with some additions of solar and adjustments to gas turbine retirements and battery capacity. The average annual relative rate impact remains stable.
gy Balance • Annual Emissions Release Notes - 2020-09-17 • Added data tables for 2.1C.Import-3 (Limited Reliability Tie Inertia) which were unintentionally omitted from the previous release Release Notes - 2020-10-30 • Added data tables fo...
AI summary The document provides emission data for various pollutants (CO2, Hg, NOx, SO2) over the years 2021 to 2045, showing a general decline in emissions. Data tables were added and corrected in multiple releases, with specific scenarios and data points mentioned.
39 34 34 25 26 26 26 26 17 17 18 18 18 15 15 15 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0A.Import-2 (No Reliability Tie) Emission Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045...
AI summary The text presents emission data for various pollutants (CO2, Hg, NOx, SO2) over the years 2021 to 2045, showing a general decline in emissions over time, particularly for CO2, Hg, NOx, and SO2, with some fluctuations in specific years.
3 Scenario A Driver 1 Scenario B X Driver 2 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 Scenario C Driver 3 D1 D2 D3 Scenario D Variations such as resource costs or focus Variations likely focused on on specific resource Sensitivity Analysis coal closure timing, ty...
AI summary The text outlines different scenarios and variations in an analysis plan for the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), focusing on factors like coal closure timing, electricity load, carbon emission reduction levels, and resource costs. It also mentions sensitivity analysis to test the impact of changes in key assumptions on the cost of the plan.
2020 IRP ASSUMPTIONS SET 6 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 26 of 321 LOAD ASSUMPTIONS OVERVIEW • The underlying data for the “Base Load Forecast” is based on NSP’s annual Load Forecast Report, as filed with the UARB in 2...
AI summary The document outlines the load assumptions used in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by Nova Scotia Power (NSP), including the base load forecast derived from the 2019 Load Forecast Report and the application of demand-side management (DSM) scenarios. It also discusses the potential impact of electrification driven by the Sustainable Development Goals Act.
SET 21 AIR QUALITY REGULATIONS Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 41 of 321 (CONT.) Individual Unit Limits (SO2) Emissions Annual Maximums (SO2, NOX) SO2 Individual SO2 Annual NOX Annual Year Year Unit Limit (t) Maximum (t)...
AI summary The text outlines emissions limits for SO2, NOX, and mercury under Nova Scotia's air quality regulations, with specific annual maximums and caps for different time periods up to 2030. It also references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions related to emissions.
% Pumped Storage $2,700 $2,700 0% a Solar PV costs reported in $/kW-ac, reflecting an inverter loading ratio of 1.3 35 Summary of Proposed Assumptions Capital Costs (2 of 2) – Fossil and Nuclear Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix...
AI summary The text provides capital and operating cost assumptions for various energy technologies, including fossil and nuclear options, as outlined in the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report. It details projected costs for coal-to-gas conversion, natural gas combined cycle with and without carbon capture, combustion turbines, reciprocating engines, and small modular nuclear reactors.
2020 IRP ASSUMPTIONS SET 48 EFFECTIVE LOAD CARRYING Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 68 of 321 CAPABILITY (ELCC) • The information from the Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study undertaken by E3 as part of the...
AI summary The document discusses the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) assumptions used in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by Nova Scotia Power. It references a study by E3 and outlines the ELCC of existing and new wind capacity on the NSPI system, noting that the ELCC of new wind is lower than existing wind.
ave a firm source of gas supply to reliably generate power during winter peaks; • Operational Mode/utilization must be considered (i.e. primarily for capacity or for energy and capacity); • Three supply paths have been developed that consi...
AI summary The document discusses three natural gas supply options for Nova Scotia Power, including existing gas, peaking gas, and base-loaded gas, each with different capacity and cost assumptions. Scenarios for each option include base, high, and low cases.
( S & P G LO BA L P L AT TS A N A LY T I C S ) H E N RY H U B Likelihood Highlights (S&P Global) Base Case 50% -US Demand growth expected to slow post 2020 (Expected) -Gas consumption in the power sector has become saturated -More location...
AI summary The text outlines S&P Global's analysis of US natural gas demand and supply scenarios from 2018 to 2030, highlighting factors influencing growth, such as environmental policies, LNG export capabilities, and regulatory developments. It also references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions.
ng diversity benefits associated with a mix of resources. This could result in the analysis selecting too much of the resources with high ELCC values in the E3 study and too little of other resources. 5. Planning Reserve Margin and Capacit...
AI summary The text discusses concerns with the E3 study's methodology in selecting resources based on ELCC values and raises questions about the relationship between weather data and load profiles in the Capacity Value Study. It also references a response by NS Power to the NSUARB regarding the 2020 ACE Plan, highlighting poor performance of specific hydro feeders.
years is a challenge, so we have defaulted dents were asked what business vehicles they used, how much to the equal adoption assumption. they were used, and when during the day such use took place. Where specific information was not provid...
AI summary The document discusses methods used to gather data on business vehicle usage and electric vehicle (EV) charging scenarios in the Digby area. It outlines a 'convenience charging' scenario where EVs are charged immediately upon arrival at a destination without regard to time of day or grid impact.
for the Municipality of the District of Digby Sigma Energy Storage Inc. November 2018 - CONFIDENTIAL page 3 infrastructure and capacity building projects. As a part of these funding agreements, Nova Scotia municipalities are required to de...
AI summary The document discusses the development of Integrated Community Sustainability Plans (ICSPs) by Nova Scotia municipalities under the Gas Tax Agreement (GTA), emphasizing sustainability principles. The Municipality of the District of Digby has included goals such as maximizing renewable energy opportunities, reducing the carbon footprint, and managing energy for a marketable industrial park in its strategic plan.
NTIAL page 5 Figure 4. Available renewable resources in the municipality of the district of Digby 3 Ecotourism Opportunity The district of Digby is rich in history and natural habitat, both of which draw visitors and new residents to the M...
AI summary The document discusses ecotourism opportunities in the Municipality of the District of Digby, emphasizing the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions through renewable energy and waste material reuse. It highlights that large public buildings consume 80% of the total delivered energy and lists eight high-demand facilities, most of which use fuel oil for heating.
electrical and heat demands for these facilities, based on Lockheed Martin study [12], are presented in Figure 6. Most of these facilities use Fuel oil for heating purposes but Arena uses Electric Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page 2...
AI summary The document outlines electrical and heat demands for high-demand facilities in the Municipality of the District of Digby, referencing a Lockheed Martin study. It highlights that most facilities use fuel oil for heating, with the Arena using electricity. Figures 6, 7, and 8 provide data on average yearly demand, oil consumption, and GHG emissions, noting that hospitals and two schools emit over 750 tonnes CO2e annually.
page 7 Figure 7. Average yearly oil consumption for the high-demand facilities [12] Figure 8. Average yearly GHG emissions from high-demand facilities The two large facilities with the highest energy demand are the hospital and the high sc...
AI summary The document discusses energy consumption patterns of high-demand facilities in Digby, particularly the hospital and high school. It highlights the hospital's 24/7 operation, peak energy usage during daytime hours, and a ten-year trend of stable annual electricity consumption with seasonal variations. An exception in 2016 saw unusual energy demand patterns.
CONFIDENTIAL page 8 Figure 9. Average daily electricity consumption by the hospital over the last ten years Digby Regional High School (DRHS) which is home to roughly under 500 students and staff, is located at 53 Mount St. DRHS is part of...
AI summary The text discusses energy consumption patterns of the Digby Regional High School and a local hospital over the past ten years, highlighting differences in electricity and heat usage throughout the year. It notes that the hospital has consistent heat demand due to sterilization and ventilation, while the high school has lower electricity usage in May due to no school days. These data are used to inform energy storage system design for the municipality.
ste as feedstock to an Anaerobic Digester to produce biogas (Figure 11). The Municipality has a plan to use this biogas to generate electricity which can be exported onto the local grid, generating Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page...
AI summary The Municipality of the District of Digby plans to use biogas from an anaerobic digester to generate electricity, which could be exported to the local grid and offset property taxes through the COMFIT program. The area also has a biomass facility and potential for a biopower plant using wood chips, which could increase energy efficiency to 80% through combined heat and power systems.
water distribution system, overhead electrical, and paved roads with roadside ditches and culverts for drainage [5]. Figure 7 shows our current knowledge of current industries located in this site. Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page...
AI summary The document outlines the energy demand estimation for the Municipality of Digby's industrial park and recommends biomass energy development to reduce fossil fuel use and GHG emissions, aiming to create an eco-industrial park with environmental and economic benefits.
. Figure 24. Microgrid energy cost versus energy price in NS Table 16. Total direct and indirect Jobs created for each recommended solution (person per year). Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page 45 of 62 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Re...
AI summary The document includes a figure illustrating microgrid energy cost versus energy price in Nova Scotia and a table showing the total direct and indirect jobs created for each recommended solution. It also references a submission by Digby and an appendix from Nova Scotia Power's IRP Final Report discussing storage systems.
ince’s 2015 Electricity Plan: Our Electricity Future [53], Nova Scotia committed to introducing a new solar energy program. This program would help Nova Scotia move to a clean electricity system in Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page...
AI summary Nova Scotia committed to a new solar energy program in 2015 to move toward a clean electricity system. The document discusses the installation of PV panels in Digby, estimating their yearly production and levelized cost of energy. It highlights the need for higher resolution solar irradiation data and the use of hourly radiation estimates for accuracy.
The lack of ambition in the proposed long-term emissions pathway proposed in the 2030-2040 pathway is the EAC’s main point for criticism of this equivalency agreement renewal process. Therefore, the EAC believes that the forecast CO2 emiss...
AI summary The EAC criticizes the lack of ambition in the proposed long-term emissions pathway for the 2030-2040 period, arguing that the forecast CO2 emissions hard caps in the 2020 IRP Draft Assumptions Set should be the least ambitious scenario modeled, with all other scenarios requiring greater emissions reductions. The EAC also highlights that the proposed pathway aligns with the business-as-usual case of continuing coal use until at least 2042, which it deems unacceptable.
1 IV. Provision of essential grid services for system stability and reliability (slide four, row four) 2 E1 recommends the following: 3 • all CRPs that do not meet requirements for essential grid services be eliminated at the 4 reliability...
AI summary E1 recommends eliminating CRPs that fail to meet essential grid service requirements during reliability screenings and incorporating integration costs into the IRP NPV. EfficiencyOne questions how robustness is measured and suggests combining it with the 25-year NPV metric. They also recommend quantifying total emissions per CRP and clearly defining metrics for other emissions types.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 228 of 321 energyfuturesgroup.com the modeling. In order to ensure clarity on the meaning of the metrics we also seek more information regarding the 10 year NPV Revenue Requirement to look...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, including the need for more detailed revenue requirement analysis, the importance of modeling avoided costs for DSM, and the need for flexibility in modeling supply-side additions. It also raises questions about natural gas pricing assumptions in the 2020 IRP draft.
e by modeling new resources in small chunks, e.g. 10 – 25 MW or by iterating runs to arrive at the portfolio that least overbuilds NSP’s system. NSP 2020 IRP Draft Assumptions 6. Natural gas pricing We’re interested in some additional spec...
AI summary The document discusses NSP's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions, focusing on natural gas pricing and modeling approaches. Stakeholders are asking for transparency in gas price forecasts, including seasonal variations and the use of New England prices as a benchmark.
1 8. Enhanced analysis take place for EE and DR combinations contained within high- 2 performing Candidate Resource Plans, with the consultation of EfficiencyOne. 3 9. NS Power confirm EfficiencyOne’s understanding of how T&D avoided costs...
AI summary EfficiencyOne and NS Power are discussing the need for enhanced analysis of electrification scenarios within high-performing Candidate Resource Plans, particularly in the context of NS Power’s 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NS Power plans to model various levels of electrification without considering related utility costs, and EfficiencyOne agrees with examining higher levels of electrification due to uncertainty around GHG regulations.
Envigour Memo Februray 18, 2020 Page 10 of 13 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 248 of 321 recognition that energy consumers and citizens first value the fundamental integrity of their energy delivery systems: safe, reliab...
AI summary The text emphasizes the importance of safe, reliable, and affordable energy systems while highlighting the need for communities to prioritize local environmental and social issues. It advocates for technological change guided by performance standards and price signals rather than specific technologies, allowing communities to choose solutions that best fit their unique conditions.
nd targets which exceed existing regulatory targets PATHWAYS work, which considers several electrification Assumptions scenarios for the Nova Scotia economy that produce a Need a more aggressive carbon scenario beyond wide range of long-te...
AI summary The text discusses the need for more aggressive carbon reduction targets that exceed current regulatory targets, referencing the PATHWAYS work which models various electrification scenarios for the Nova Scotia economy, leading to a range of long-term outcomes in terms of peak demand and energy requirements.
Scenarios and Modeling Plan for details. Environmental EAC CO2 pre 2030; 0 by 2040 In the final Modeling Plan NS Power has included a GHG Assumptions 4.5 MT 2030 vs 3.0 – Is equivalency the reason for this? Scenario with limits below 3.0MT...
AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and its modeling assumptions, including GHG emission targets. It references a scenario with accelerated net zero by 2045 and questions the reasoning behind specific CO2e emission levels in the final Modeling Plan.
va Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 286 of 321 IRP Assumptions – Participant Comments March 11, 2020 Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 3. Envigour Need to assume net-zero is ≥ 85-90% carbon-free (using...
AI summary Envigour (Bruce Cameron) suggests that the IRP should assume net-zero emissions are at least 85-90% carbon-free by 2050, using existing pipelines with carbon-free fuels like hydrogen and renewable natural gas. NS Power responds that the scenarios already incorporate GHG emission profiles compliant with the SDGA and more stringent than current regulatory requirements.
NS Power has included costs for solar generation in our Installation of solar garden suggested. supply options based on the E3 Supply Options Study. 8 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 290 of 321 IRP Assumptions – Particip...
AI summary NS Power has included solar generation costs in supply options based on the E3 Supply Options Study. The IRP assumptions include updated capital and operating costs for lithium ion battery systems, reflecting 2019 data.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 6. Planning CA Use longer averaging period for TUC DAFOR (7 years vs 3) To avoid subjectivity, NS Power selected a three year Reserve Margin (Chernick & average for all units in ord...
AI summary The document discusses assumptions related to reserve margin planning and the use of different methods for calculating Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) and Installed Capacity (ICAP) for various types of generation. NS Power responds to recommendations regarding the averaging period for TUC DAFOR and the treatment of non-thermal generation in ELCC calculations.
at reliability obligations (i.e. 0.1 Adjustments; ICAP method results in a PRM of 20%; UCAP days/year LOLE) are maintained in all years of the plan; method results in a PRM of 7%to 9%. Dynamic under will iterate if required. capacity expan...
AI summary The text discusses planning reserve margin assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including reliability obligations, capacity expansion strategies, and the need to revisit hydro ELCC assumptions. It also references a request to make numerical values from Figure 27 visible.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response 1.0 Analysis Plan E1 – Feb 14 2020 Clarify at what steps plans are assessed for removal Please refer to the final Scenarios and General from consideration Modeling Plan for additional details on th...
AI summary The E1 – Feb 14 2020 participant requests clarification on the steps for assessing plans for removal from consideration, the data relationship among long-term strategy, roadmap, and action plan, and the process for reassessing plans if emissions regulations become more stringent after the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NSP responds by referring to the final Scenarios and Modeling Plan and explains that qualitative and quantitative results from modeling phases will inform the Roadmap and Action Plan.
2 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 314 of 321 KEY POLICY DRIVERS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY ELECTRICITY SECTOR CO2 2030 CO2 2040 CO2 2045 CO2 2050 Comparator GHG Case 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.1 Reductions consistent with equivalenc...
AI summary The text presents various greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction scenarios for the electricity sector in Nova Scotia, including comparator GHG cases, Net Zero 2050 targets, and accelerated net zero targets, with corresponding CO2 levels and percentage reductions from 2005 levels.
2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 • The E3 PATHWAYS study produced various Annual Energy (GWh) - Forecast Range electrification scenarios based on decarbonization of building and transportation 15000 energy use 14000 Annual Energy (GWh)
AI summary The text presents a graph showing annual energy forecasts in GWh, with the E3 PATHWAYS study producing various electrification scenarios based on the decarbonization of building and transportation energy use.
It is going to take a long time for electricity demand to recover to any of the three forecasts being used to develop resource portfolios in the IRP. Given the impact of the recession on electricity demand, the “Mid Electrification / Base...
AI summary The text discusses the potential inaccuracy of electricity demand forecasts used in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) due to the impact of the recession. It argues that current forecasts may not be relevant for near- and mid-term resource planning, suggesting that sensitivity runs and adjustments may be necessary to optimize resource portfolios.
units, especially coal units and the Mersey hydro system. In either case, with unrealistic load forecasts, the portfolios may have uneconomic, excessive generation which will lead to inaccurate, low avoided costs. For that reason, the mode...
AI summary The document expresses concerns about unrealistic load forecasts impacting the accuracy of avoided costs in DSM investment decisions. It also highlights concerns about load shapes associated with electrification, particularly for transportation, based on data shared by NS Power.
The range of costs estimated for Scenario Bs in the Initial Portfolio Study Results (page 51) of the NS Power 2020 IRP modeling Results Release – June 26, 2020 are based on the Behind the Meter solar cost assumptions (High and Low Capacity...
AI summary The text discusses cost estimates for Scenario Bs in the NS Power 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling results, based on Behind the Meter solar cost assumptions. It also outlines how the Resolve model evaluates economics over 5-year increments and mentions ongoing consultations about T&D Avoided Cost methodology through the Demand Side Management Advisory Group (DSMAG).
s on engagement, as further detailed in the body of this the outcomes of the methodology discussions. memorandum. (included list of activities) E1-4 DSM Modify qualitative assumptions for the contents of the NS Power has used the E1 DSM Po...
AI summary The text discusses updates to the DSM Potential Study and the inclusion of Mid-DSM in sensitivity analyses. NS Power has adjusted its assumptions and completed sensitivity analyses to reflect stakeholder feedback and methodological considerations.
12500 12000 12000 12000 GWh GWh GWh 11500 11500 11500 11000 11000 11000 10500 10500 10500 10000 10000 10000 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2...
AI summary The text presents graphical data showing energy consumption levels over time, with values ranging from 10,000 to 12,500 GWh across multiple years from 2021 to 2045. The data is presented in three identical charts, likely illustrating projections or historical trends.
ich is used in calculating unit contributions to Planning Reserve Margins • ELCC Factors for existing resources have been calculated as follows, using the most recent 3-year average DAFOR rates ELCC Factors Net Operating Cap. (MW) ELCC Fac...
AI summary The document discusses the calculation of ELCC factors for various energy resources, including coal, gas, hydro, and wind, based on the most recent 3-year average DAFOR rates. These factors are used in calculating unit contributions to Planning Reserve Margins.
1.0 Equivalency GHG Low Elec. 2040 A - Current Landscape Base DSM C – Regional Integration Comparator 2.0 GHG targets decline Low Elec. 2040 A - Current Landscape • DSM Levels linearly from 2030 to Base DSM C - Regional Integration Net Zer...
AI summary The document outlines various GHG reduction scenarios under different electrification levels (low, mid, high) and timeframes (2030, 2040, 2045, 2050). It discusses the role of demand-side management (DSM) and regional integration in achieving net zero targets. These scenarios include considerations for distributed resources and no new emitting technologies.
o New Emitting Accelerated Net Zero 2045 Mid path to Absolute Zero • Target Case for Electrification 2050 Sensitivity Evaluation 3.2 GHG targets decline from High Elec. 2030 B - Distributed Resources • DSM Levels 2025 to 0.5Mt in 2045; Max...
AI summary The text discusses GHG targets declining from 2025 to 0.5Mt in 2045, with a focus on electrification and demand-side management (DSM) levels. It references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions the addition of a scenario based on stakeholder feedback.
1 The hydro screening analysis assesses the Run the “In” Case: Run RESOLVE with all value of NSP’s hydro assets existing units in the model to identify optimal E3 performed “in” and “out” cases in RESOLVE future resource portfolio that...
AI summary The hydro screening analysis evaluates the value of NSP’s hydro assets by comparing the costs of sustaining and decommissioning them over a 40-year period. E3 conducted 'in' and 'out' cases in RESOLVE to assess the impact of removing hydro units on the optimal future resource portfolio, considering reliability, GHG goals, and customer costs.
Asset: - Decommissioning Costs - Sustaining Capital (in (outside RESOLVE) RESOLVE) - Replacement System - Fixed O&M (in RESOLVE) Costs (in RESOLVE) The difference between decommissioning and sustaining/operating reflects the system benefit...
AI summary The text discusses the system value provided by Wreck Cove Hydro in different scenarios within the RESOLVE model. It highlights that Wreck Cove offers incremental energy and capacity value, especially as emissions regulations tighten and coal units retire. The value is higher in the 2.1.C. scenario due to higher loads and lower carbon targets.
Energy Balance (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Energy (GWh) 32 2.0.A - Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 35 of 245 Net Zero, Low Elec./Base DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The n...
AI summary The text discusses the comparison between the net zero case and the comparator case in the context of GHG emissions, energy generation costs, and the reliance on different energy sources. It highlights a reduction in gas peaker usage and increased reliance on wind and imports in the net zero scenario.
ase Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 39 of 245 Net Zero, Mid. Elec./Base DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 With access to firm import options, the model chooses GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.2 1.2...
AI summary The analysis in the document highlights that increased access to firm imports reduces the need for gas, wind, and battery capacity, lowers GHG emissions, and decreases the net present value of system costs. It also notes that regional integration lowers generation costs and the NPV of system costs compared to a previous scenario.
Energy Balance (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Energy (GWh) 37 2.2.A - Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 40 of 245 Net Zero, High Elec./Max DSM, Current Landscape Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The h...
AI summary The document discusses the need for nearly 1 GW of additional nameplate capacity by 2045 due to high electrification forecasts. This capacity will be sourced from new gas CCGTs, CTs, wind, and batteries. GHG emissions are projected to decrease from 3.2 MMT in 2035 to 1.4 MMT in 2045, with marginal abatement costs increasing from $24 to $51 per ton.
ary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 41 of 245 Net Zero, High Elec./Max DSM, Distributed Resources Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 The addition of DER’s mitigates the capacity and energy GHG Emissions (MMT) 3.2 1.4 ne...
AI summary The addition of DERs reduces capacity and energy needs under a high electrification scenario, but increases average generation costs. GHG emissions decrease from 2035 to 2045, and the NPV increases significantly when considering 20-year end effects. However, the cost of DER resources is not included in the NPV calculations, which ranges from $1.6B to $2.5B.
0 2021 2025 2035 2045 Nuclear 2021 2025 2035 2045 Nuclear 39 2.2.C - Case Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 42 of 245 Net Zero, High Elec./Max DSM, Regional Integration Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 Additiona...
AI summary This section of the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report discusses a scenario involving high electrification, maximum demand-side management (DSM), and regional integration. It highlights that additional import access helps meet higher capacity and energy needs, with costs declining due to cheaper import capacity and increased wind integration. GHG emissions and marginal abatement costs are also noted for 2035 and 2045.
age Generation Cost (c/kWh) 9.2 resulted in similar costs, but results shown here show results without SMR and CCS Capacity Addition and Retirement (MW) Energy Balance (GWh) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Energy (GWh) 44 3.2.B - Case Summa...
AI summary The document discusses the generation cost of 9.2 cents per kilowatt-hour and the addition and retirement of capacity in megawatts, as well as the annual energy balance in gigawatt-hours. It references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and highlights scenarios without the inclusion of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
se Summary Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 47 of 245 Accel. Net Zero, High Elec., Max DSM, Distributed Resources Key Observations Metric 2035 2045 Due to the load reduction provided by DER, less new GHG Emissions (MMT)...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of distributed energy resources (DER) on GHG emissions, generation costs, and capacity planning under different scenarios. It highlights that DER reduces the need for new capacity but increases average generation costs due to lower load factors. The NPV calculations and energy balance are also presented.
Imports (Non-firm) Annual Energy (GWh)
AI summary The text mentions 'Imports (Non-firm)' and includes a table header labeled 'Annual Energy (GWh)', suggesting a discussion related to energy imports that are not firm commitments.
Imports (Non-firm) Annual Energy (GWh)
AI summary The document text includes a section titled 'Imports (Non-firm)' with a table header 'Annual Energy (GWh)', indicating a discussion on non-firm energy imports and their annual energy measurements in gigawatt-hours.
16,000 DR Capacity Addition and Retirement (MW) Energy Balance (GWh) Pumped Storage 14,000 Battery 2,500 DR Wind 12,000 Pumped Storage Tidal 2,000 Battery Solar
AI summary The text presents data on capacity addition and retirement in megawatts and energy balance in gigawatt-hours, including contributions from various sources like wind, tidal, solar, pumped storage, and battery, along with demand response (DR).
Natural gas price capacity plan sensitivity: The most recent FAM report suggests that there has been a shift from coal to gas driven by changes in fuel price. We suggest that NS Power should develop a capacity expansion plan that explores...
AI summary The document discusses the need for NS Power to develop capacity expansion plans that consider fuel price changes, transmission sensitivities, and hydro avoided costs. It also references the HalifACT 2050 plan and its alignment with the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
e consistent with the HalifACT 2050 plan, particularly the 2030 goals. NS Power indicated that its scenarios at least roughly covered the goals of HalifACT 2050. Our understanding of the HalifACT 2050 plan is that it includes four main ele...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia Power's alignment with the HalifACT 2050 plan, including its CO2 emissions target and renewable energy goals, such as 1,600 MW of rooftop and other HRM solar by 2030. It references technical reports from the Halifax Regional Municipality.
• 100% EV sales by 2030 • Every building retrofitted (electrified and efficient) by 2040 With the partial exception of the electrification goals, our review of the IRP modeling indicates that NS Power is correct that it has scenarios that...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling in relation to electrification goals, renewable energy targets, and carbon emissions. It notes that NS Power's scenarios align with some goals, such as CO2 reduction, but may not fully match HRM's electrification ambitions. The analysis suggests that high-electrification scenarios are likely sufficient to meet HRM goals by 2025.
66.2 % 71.6 % 77.3 % Annapolis 45.9 % 69.6 % 42.3 % 39.3 % Other Hydro 45.7 % 39.1 % 47.6 % 53.6 % As Table 3 indicates, after taking into consideration the capacity credit associated with wind, the capacity factor for wind in the top 1.1%...
AI summary The text discusses the capacity factors of wind and hydroelectric resources in Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It highlights that wind capacity factors decrease significantly during peak hours when considering capacity credit, and that historical data suggests hydroelectric capacity values may not be accurately represented in the IRP.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 120 of 245 Comments on modeling of wind and hydro in the IRP Page 7 of 7 dispatched over 75% in only 39 out of the 386 hours. In contrast, Mersey was dispatched at over 75% in 247 hours of...
AI summary The text questions the dispatch patterns of Wreck Cove and Mersey hydro units in the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), noting that Wreck Cove is dispatched sparingly during high-load hours, while Mersey is dispatched more reliably but does not match claimed ELCC values. Smaller run-of-the-river units also perform below their ELCC values during peak hours.
d process of the 2020 IRP, and the lack of availability for stakeholder funding and support through the NSUARB, through the NSPI-led process, or through the Nova Scotia Department of Energy and Mines. The EAC feels very strongly that this...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, highlighting the lack of stakeholder funding and support, and the need for alignment with greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. It criticizes the absence of zero-emission scenarios and the bias towards natural gas infrastructure in the study's modeling.
pe rather than react as GHG requirements become increasingly strict. Proactive planning will, in the long run, minimize costs to ratepayers. Action 1) Model scenarios that achieve zero GHG emissions. Consider examining cases for 2050, 2045...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of proactive planning to meet GHG reduction targets and minimize long-term costs to ratepayers. It suggests modeling various scenarios, including zero-emission cases by 2035, 2045, and 2050, to compare the costs of carbon sequestration, renewable energy, and clean energy imports. It also questions whether replacing coal plants with natural gas is the most cost-effective long-term pathway.
nefits would likewise represent long term financial savings to the province. Clearly, a structured and measured assessment of this benefit is an important part of the net present value to ratepayers. The same high electrification rate cond...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of assessing long-term financial benefits from electrification and building efficiency improvements. It highlights that current models may underestimate savings due to the lack of consideration for improved building quality and renovation rates. Federal initiatives aim to develop stricter building codes to support net-zero energy readiness by 2030.
Envigour Memo July 17, 2020 Page 1 of 2 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 157 of 245 2. The model did not select several potential technologies such as offshore wind, tidal or hydrogen. It would be useful to know what the...
AI summary The memo raises concerns about the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) model's exclusion of offshore wind, tidal, and hydrogen technologies, suggesting a need to understand their competitiveness and unique value. It also questions the model's representation of natural gas solutions, particularly combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) investments, and their impact on reliability and net-zero goals. The memo further inquires about the IRP's ability to assess the economic impact of scenarios on Nova Scotia's GDP.
- economic treatment of GHG emissions following 2050. 8 Presentation Distributed Energy NS Power 2020 IRP 17, 23 The cost of DER resources was not included in model NPV The "NPV Partial Revenue Requirement Comparison" graph indicates Consi...
AI summary The text discusses the economic treatment of GHG emissions post-2050 and highlights issues with the cost modeling of DER resources in the 2020 IRP. It notes that the cost of DERs was not included in the model's NPV calculations, leading to potential misrepresentations in cost comparisons between scenarios.
port Appendix J Page 185 of 245 would have to be built out in tandem with the wind. This could result in a premature and/or unnecessary level of capital expenditure, increasing costs to consumers. Interconnector Flows; treatment of exports...
AI summary The text discusses concerns about the capital expenditure required for interconnector projects and the potential impact on consumers. It requests clarification on interconnector energy flows and export pricing assumptions. It also questions the assumption in the IRP model that only firm imports contribute to ELCC, noting that other regions, such as Europe, use a different approach.
ntil later Scotia market based information for wind, which will in the study period. inform future wind procurement. Under the assumption that operational restraints are used, Future procurement for the Reliability tieline, with the and lo...
AI summary The text discusses the need for future wind procurement in the Nova Scotia market, considering operational restraints and low wind costs. It raises questions about the timing of wind development beyond operational constraints, the reliability tie, and the need for studies to assess the performance and cost-effectiveness of operational constraints in addressing high wind/high import issues.
Combined CA-20 It is surprising to see a combined cycle built so late in the NS Power agrees that the treatment of late period builds Cycle Gas 2.2A and 2.2C cases, as well as being built in the 3.1 and 3.2 is challenging and notes that th...
AI summary The text discusses concerns about the modeling of combined cycle gas plants in the context of 2050 climate targets. It highlights uncertainty about the financial viability of these plants and the need for model modifications. NS Power acknowledges the challenge but believes these late-period builds have limited influence on the near-term resource plan.
Natural Gas E1-09 A proxy for new gas supply should also include a sensitivity When developing a plan for assumptions that relating to the Algonquin City Gates Hub (AGT) as the would require a firm gas supply, NS Power’s Efficiency One com...
AI summary The text discusses the need to consider the Algonquin City Gates Hub (AGT) as a proxy for new gas supply in the Nova Scotia electricity system, due to uncertainties with current gas acquisition methods. It highlights that AGT may be a more economically viable option for a winter-peaking utility, and suggests including sensitivity analyses on natural gas availability beyond 20,000 MMBtu per day.
strain options were developed on the basis of new the model to only allow for consumption of 20,000MMBtu natural gas units economically selecting firm access per day, thus allowing the model to economically select to a gas supply to operat...
AI summary The document discusses the development of options for natural gas consumption and the impact of gas price sensitivities on future capacity additions within the context of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NS Power considers alternative supply paths and pricing scenarios, including the LNG Winter-Dawn summer pricing and AECO Path 3 transportation upgrades.
Electrification EAC-07 The costs to the ratepayer are not fully comparable between NS Power agrees that there are economic costs and benefits scenarios. High electrification cases presume that consumers benefits associated with electrifica...
AI summary The EAC highlights that the costs and benefits of electrification scenarios are not fully comparable, noting that the IRP analysis does not capture health and financial benefits. NS Power agrees there are economic and health benefits but emphasizes the need to explore these further in the Electrification Strategy within the IRP Action Plan.
NS Power Response conditions. It is critical that this IRP fully assess the import options available to Nova Scotia. Load Forecast Hendriks-01 Detailed historical data requests, additional analyses and The requestor advised that he is a Ph...
AI summary NS Power responds to data requests related to load forecasting and the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The requestor, a PhD student, seeks historical load data and analysis of recessionary effects on demand. NS Power notes that much of the requested information is already available to stakeholders and questions the justification for maintaining certain endpoints aligned with SDGA goals.
July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Wind cost NF-01 Price of wind is overstated compared to observed current NS Power undertook two Low Wind Price Natural Forces pricing. NS Power should reduce by 30 percent at a Sensiti...
AI summary The comment argues that NS Power has overestimated the price of wind energy by using a low capacity factor, suggesting a 30% reduction. NS Power responded by citing sensitivity analyses and noting that capacity factors were based on a CanWEA study, which assumes higher capacity factors than current Nova Scotia wind farms.
mports on the AC resource plan. intertie. At times of lower import levels, the SIR requirement would be expected to be much lower. Monitor industry developments around synthetic inertia. Load forecast NF-04 Covid effects are too severe and...
AI summary The document discusses load forecast adjustments due to prolonged pandemic effects, suggesting a sensitivity period of 2-5 years instead of 10 years. It also mentions monitoring synthetic inertia developments and the impact of import levels on the SIR requirement.
ons • Captures thermal resource and transmission forced outages • Captures variable availability of renewables & correlations to load • Tracks hydro and storage state of charge Information about E3’s RECAP model can be found here: https://...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) calculation by Nova Scotia Power using E3's RECAP model. It outlines the required PRM based on Installed Capacity (20%) and Unforced Capacity (9%), emphasizing the importance of reliability and capacity expansion modeling.
ct” 1-in-2 or “100% firm” capacity was forecast by NS Power Peak to be 2070 MW in 2020 Load 9 RECAP is used to test the reliability of the final PLEXOS portfolios Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 12 of 264 RECAP calcula...
AI summary The document discusses the use of the RECAP model in assessing the reliability of energy portfolios, particularly in relation to capacity expansion modeling and Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) values. It mentions the planning reserve margin (PRM) and the importance of ensuring adequate system capacity with a target of 0.1 days/year loss-of-load expectation (LOLE).
Installed Capacity (MW) ELCC (MW) / UCAP ICAP (MW) Includes all thermal units Dispatchable 1,505 1,418 1,505 Firm Imports 588 527 588 Includes only firm DR - - - imports Storage 33 27 27 Variable 1,132 152 152 Thermal, imports and Hydro 36...
AI summary The document presents capacity and ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capability) data for Nova Scotia's energy portfolio, including installed capacity, UCAP (Ultimate Capacity), ICAP (Installed Capacity), and PRM (Primary Reserve Management) metrics. It highlights a capacity surplus and the relationship between these metrics and reserve targets in 2045.
32 hit the target LOLE Note: RECAP estimates a PRM target endogenously given the scenario load characteristics and reserves in 2045, thus it may differ slightly from the PRM target estimated for the 2020 system. Similarly, ELCCs are also a...
AI summary The document discusses the modeling of Nova Scotia Power's 2045 installed capacity and load using the RECAP tool, resulting in a UCAP target of 8% and achieving a LOLE of 0.02 days per year, which is below the target of 0.1 days per year.
0.1 days/yr LOLE Achieved 0.02 days/yr PRM Target (UCAP) 8% Installed Capacity (MW) ELCC (MW) / UCAP ICAP (MW) Dispatchable 1,713 1,633 1,713 Firm Imports 768 682 768 DR 0 0 0 Storage 109 92 92 Variable 1,376 180 180 Hydro 366 337 366 Tota...
AI summary This section presents data on Installed Capacity (MW), Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC), and Ultimate Capacity (UCAP) for various energy sources in Nova Scotia. It highlights the difference between the PRM target and achieved values, as well as the capacity surplus in the system for the year 2045.
20 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 23 of 264 Conclusions Conclusions Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 24 of 264 All portfolios meet their LOLE reliability targets, indicating that the PLEXOS portfolio...
AI summary The document concludes that all portfolios meet their LOLE reliability targets in 2045, but recommends more detailed modeling of electrification load shapes to assess long-term impacts on PRM targets. It highlights the need for detailed analysis of electrification's effects on peak load and vehicle charging patterns.
orders of magnitude or directional time frames. NS Power looks forward to receiving stakeholder comments on these Draft Findings, which will then be refined for inclusion in the IRP Final Report. I R P D R A F T F I N D I N G S , R O A D M...
AI summary The draft findings emphasize the need for significant efforts across all sectors to reduce carbon emissions in line with Nova Scotia’s Sustainable Development Goals Act, with the electricity sector playing a major role. Key strategies include reliance on non-emitting electricity, demand side management, and electrification of fossil fuel-dependent end uses. Nova Scotia Power projects a substantial reduction in direct carbon emissions by 2045.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 58 of 264 DRAFT ACTION PLAN 3. Initiate a Thermal Plant Retirement, Redevelopment and Replacement Plan including: a) Develop a plan for the retirement of Trenton 5, targeting 2023-2025 whi...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power outlines a draft action plan for retiring coal plants, developing renewable energy, and implementing demand response strategies. Key actions include retiring Trenton 5 by 2023-2025, procuring wind energy, and creating a 75MW demand response strategy by 2025.
64 1.0C L O W E L E C . / B A S E D S M / C O M PA R AT O R E M I S S I O N S / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,190 General Notes • Incremental firm imports enable an economic coal u...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation data for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) under different conditions, including coal unit retirements, reliability tie construction, and regional interconnection. It also includes CO2 emissions data and mentions non-compliance with Sustainable Development Goals Act.
Resource Adequacy & PRM 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,820 • Reliability Tie: 2030 • Regional Integration: 2037 Plan Robustness & Flexibility Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • Regional Integration provides flexible ability to meet emissions const...
AI summary The document discusses resource adequacy and Peak Resource Management (PRM), including 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2021 to 2045. It references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions reliability tie and regional integration timelines.
ntegration provides flexible ability to meet emissions constraints Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 37.9 Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 23.8 Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2045 (MT) 61.7 17 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Pag...
AI summary The text discusses integration strategies to meet emissions constraints, presenting total CO2 emissions for different time periods and referencing the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Net Zero 2050 goals. It outlines scenario metrics and evaluation under the Regional Integration section.
127 of 264 2.1C M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,141 General Notes • Reliability Tie built in 2031 (earlier than previous run...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation data from Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report. It includes 25-yr and 10-yr Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR), CO2 emissions, and reliability tie timelines. The report highlights the impact of retiring coal units, wind integration, and regional integration on emissions and resource adequacy.
converted to gas in 2037 Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $8,232 • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2030 Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • Regional Integration: n...
AI summary The document discusses the Essential Grid Services, Resource Adequacy & PRM, and Plan Robustness & Flexibility, highlighting the 10-year NPVRR, average annual partial rate impact, and CO2 emissions from 2021 to 2045. It outlines the reliance on natural gas and the limited ability to adjust supply sources.
264 3.1C M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / A C C E L . N E T Z E R O 2 0 4 5 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,734 General Notes • 1 coal to gas conversion in 2030 • Regional Interco...
AI summary The text presents scenario metrics and evaluation data from an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by Nova Scotia Power, including Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR), CO2 emissions, and details about energy resource deployment, such as coal-to-gas conversions, solar additions, and regional interconnection builds.
4 (LOW DSM) L O W E L E C . / L O W D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.0C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,206 $12,234 General Notes • Similar resource plan overall...
AI summary The text presents scenario metrics comparing a Low DSM sensitivity scenario to a Base DSM scenario under the 2.0C target. It highlights differences in 25-year and 10-year NPVRR figures, noting a delayed coal retirement, increased CO2 emissions in the 2030s, and the addition of 100MW of combustion turbine resources by 2045.
676 $6,820 end effects are considered relative to 2.0C Base DSM indicating the solutions are very close economically Essential Grid Services Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • No change relative to 2.0C 2021-2030 (%) 0.3% 0.9% 2021-2045...
AI summary The text presents a comparison of CO2 emissions and grid services under different scenarios, including the 2.0C DSM-5 (Mid DSM) plan. It highlights minimal changes in reliability and grid services, with a focus on emissions reductions and the integration of regional resources by 2037.
42 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 151 of 264 2.0C.DSM -5 (MID DSM) L O W E L E C . / M I D D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.0C) 25-yr...
AI summary This section of the Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report discusses the sensitivity analysis for the 2.0C DSM scenario, highlighting changes in NPVRR due to increased demand-side management and deferred regional integration. It notes a net avoidance of 45MW of gas generation capacity and no changes in essential grid services compared to the base scenario.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 155 of 264 3.1C.DSM -7 (MID DSM) M I D E L E C . / M I D D S M / A C C E L . N E T Z E R O 2 0 4 5 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (3....
AI summary The document compares the 25-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) between the Base DSM and Mid DSM scenarios. It notes that the resource plan remains largely unchanged, but slightly fewer batteries are built due to lower firm capacity requirements under Mid DSM. The NPVRR is increased in the Mid DSM scenario relative to the Base DSM case for all three time periods.
(%) 0.5% 0.6% • NPVRR is reduced relative to 3.1C in two of three metrics, slightly higher in 10-yr NPV due 2021-2045 (%) 0.6% 0.7% to advancement of investment Essential Grid Services Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 26.8 41.8 • No chan...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of the 2.1C.WIND-3 scenario on CO2 emissions and resource adequacy, noting a reduction in NPVRR in some metrics and the need for further consideration of flexibility in import energy to balance increased wind capacity. It also highlights the importance of regional integration and reliability ties by 2023 and 2036.
overall resource plan optimization 2021-2030 (%) 0.5% 0.6% • Cost differences are small over all three NPV metrics 2021-2045 (%) 0.7% 0.7% Essential Grid Services • Current studies indicate that 2200MW.sec of online kinetic inertia is not...
AI summary The document discusses the optimization of the overall resource plan from 2021 to 2045, highlighting small cost differences across NPV metrics and concerns about grid stability, specifically the need for additional inertia and studies. It also outlines reliability ties and regional integration timelines and notes no change from the 2.1C plan.
EGRATION) M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,076 $13,141 General Notes • Model builds more wind relativ...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluations for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) under the Mid Electricity / Based Demand Side Management / Net Zero 2050 / Regional Integration scenario. It highlights increased wind generation, coal-to-gas conversion, and higher curtailment impacts on NPV.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,097 $13,141 General Notes • While the Mersey system was economically retained in the screening phase, this sensitivity was completed in order to understand how cap...
AI summary The document evaluates the financial and operational impacts of decommissioning the Mersey Hydro system, including the replacement of capacity and energy, changes in regional integration timelines, and the associated decommissioning costs. It also outlines the partial rate impact on the grid due to these changes.
BASE DSM / NET ZERO 2050 / CURRENT LANDSCAPE Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.0A) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,628 $12,351 General Notes • Without the ability to build the Reliability Tie, wind is built via the local integration...
AI summary The text presents scenario metrics and evaluation for a Base DSM / Net Zero 2050 initiative. It highlights differences in 25-yr and 10-yr NPVRR, CO2 emissions, and grid services under the Base (2.0A) and a sensitivity scenario. The analysis notes higher costs and CO2 emissions in the sensitivity scenario, as well as the use of batteries and synchronous condensers for wind integration.
44.5 Plan Robustness & Flexibility Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 36.2 33.2 • No change relative to 2.0A Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2045 (MT) 76.8 77.7 61 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 170 of 264 2.1C.IMPORT -3 (LIMI...
AI summary The text presents emission reduction targets and installed capacity comparisons for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) under the 2.1C.IMPORT-3 scenario, focusing on limited reliability tie inertia and regional integration.
generation, including a summary of the modeling evidence in support of its findings and any constraints on the options that were evaluated that may suggest a need for further analysis. 5 Operating surpluses and inefficient dispatch In the...
AI summary The text discusses findings from Bates White audits regarding NSPI's operating surpluses and inefficient dispatch practices, which may increase costs to FAM customers. It also raises questions about the potential for improved hydro dispatch if operating reserves are maintained at target levels. Additionally, the importance of evaluating the continued operation of hydroelectric facilities in the IRP process is highlighted.
Remaining Concerns about Assumptions ELCC for run-of-river hydro units In our memo of August 4, RII questioned the 95% ELCC for run-of-river hydro units. It is our understanding that this ELCC is based on DAFOR only, and that operational l...
AI summary The document raises concerns about the discrepancy between the estimated ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capacity) for run-of-river hydro units and their actual performance. It questions why the 95% ELCC estimate differs from observed capacity factors, and whether these units are being held for system reserves rather than being fully dispatched during peak hours.
e peak period of a day, limiting its contribution to reliability. This limitation should be considered in combination with DAFOR in determining its ELCC and the overall system planning reserve margin. Sustaining capital cost profiles Accor...
AI summary The text discusses the need to consider the limitations of peak period contributions to reliability when determining ELCC and system planning reserve margins. It also highlights inconsistencies in the capital cost profiles for Point Aconi, including potential additional investments not reflected in the IRP assumptions, and recommends that NS Power verify and provide detailed updated assumptions.
tel. 902.429.2202 2705 Fern Lane, fax. 902.405.3716 Halifax, NS, B3K 4L3 analysis indicates that an accelerated phase-out would avoid 89 premature deaths, 8,000 asthma episodes and 58,000 days of breathing difficulty for Nova Scotians, amo...
AI summary The text discusses the benefits of an accelerated phase-out of coal by 2030, including reduced health impacts and environmental benefits. It also comments on the Draft Action Plan, supporting the development of a Regional Integration Strategy and the electrification of the grid to reduce carbon emissions and stabilize the power system.
ity of Liquid-Fueled Combustion Turbines (“CTs”) In Draft Finding 3(b), NSPI describes retaining these units for another 25 years, at which point they will have been in operation for nearly 70 years: “NS Power’s existing CT resources provi...
AI summary The text discusses concerns raised by Heritage Gas regarding the reliability of NSPI's 1970’s-era combustion turbines, noting that they failed during periods of high ambient temperatures and that NSPI was aware of these limitations. NSPI argues that these units provide economic benefits and can be sustained with reinvestment.
anticipated and expected by NSPI personnel. This suggests that the reliability of these units is limited and those limitations are understood by those who operate NSPI’s system. NSPI’s seven 33 MW combustion turbines’ performance during th...
AI summary The audit highlights concerns about the reliability of NSPI's combustion turbines, noting that their performance during the audit period had elevated DAFOR rates and low availability factors. The report also states that NSPI significantly underestimated the frequency these units would be called upon, with actual output exceeding forecasts by over 1,300%.
in this area: “Monitor the development of low/zero carbon fuels that could replace natural gas in powering generating units to provide firm, in-province capacity beyond 2050.”9 Recently the Offshore Energy Research Association (“OERA”), Li...
AI summary The text discusses the need to monitor low/zero carbon fuels to replace natural gas in generating units beyond 2050. It highlights the engagement of OERA, Liberty Utilities, Heritage Gas, and the provincial Department of Energy & Mines with Zen Energy Solutions to assess hydrogen's potential in Nova Scotia. The Action Plan should consider replacing liquid-fueled CTs with gas-fired CTs, include timelines for coal-to-gas conversions, and identify hydrogen as a means to meet GHG reduction targets.
The Action Plan and Roadmap should specifically identify hydrogen as a means to assist the province in meeting the GHG reduction targets established in the SDGA. General Comments The assumptions and scenario modelling used in this IRP re...
AI summary The document highlights the need to identify hydrogen in the Action Plan and Roadmap to meet GHG reduction targets. It also discusses significant changes in the future electric sector in Nova Scotia, including the separation of capacity from energy, increased reliance on imports, and the need for new transmission and fast-acting generation.
olicy goals, as it supports decarbonisation of other sectors (transport, heat). It is recommended that this point is emphasised strongly in the findings and is considered in NSP’s action plan. • Sensitivities with lower wind costs profound...
AI summary The text emphasizes the importance of wind energy in decarbonizing sectors like transport and heat, and highlights the need for further analysis on the impact of lower wind costs on the resource plan. It also criticizes NSP’s proposed wind procurement targets as being too low, suggesting higher capacities should be considered.
2039 2040 2042 2043 2044 2045 -200 1.0A 1.0C 2.0A 2.0C 2.1A 2.1B 2.1C 2.2A 2.2C 3.1B 3.1C 3.2B 3.2C Figure 1: Build-out of additional Wind Capacity in the initial Scenarios. As can be observed, several scenarios have approximately 200 MW o...
AI summary The document discusses NSP's proposed wind procurement strategy, aiming to add 0-100 MW of new wind capacity by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030. This strategy is linked to higher electrification, which NSP believes can help reduce electricity rates and support Nova Scotia’s emissions policy goals.
ight of the above, NSP’s proposed/draft action plan item 3(c) viz: “Initiate a wind procurement strategy, targeting 0-100 MW new installed capacity by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030” seems unduly limiting, particularly as regards the implie...
AI summary The proposed wind procurement strategy by NSP is criticized for its upper limit of 350 MW by 2030, as higher wind volumes in some scenarios could lead to lower electricity rates. The requirement for additional infrastructure like batteries or an AC intertie increases capital costs, potentially reducing wind installations.
plan, even compared to the “original” scenarios with higher wind build-out (such as Case 3.1C). Much larger 1 Cases “2.1C WIND 1 (Low Wind Cost)” and “2.1C WIND 2 (Low Wind and Battery Cost)” 4 Page Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appen...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of lower wind costs on the timing of wind capacity deployment in Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), noting that significantly lower wind costs ($1,500/kW) lead to earlier and larger wind capacity additions. It also highlights the potential benefit of disassociating battery costs from wind projects and mentions unmonetized CO2 reduction benefits from higher wind build-out scenarios.
Ltd. CO2 emissions 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2.1C 2.1C.WIND-1 (Low Wind Cost) 2.1C.WIND-2 (Low Wind & Batter...
AI summary The text discusses CO2 emissions projections for different scenarios, noting that the benefits of lower emissions are not currently monetized in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modelling approach. It references a European approach where such benefits are directly monetized.
ch. This is of course dependent on the emissions framework applicable to the jurisdiction. In Europe for example, the approach would be to directly monetise the benefit of a lower CO2 emission level4. 4 Every two years ENTSO-E (the Europea...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of considering CO2 emission levels in regulatory and planning processes, referencing European practices where CO2 prices are forecasted and used for project evaluation. It suggests that even if not directly monetized, lower CO2 scenarios can serve as a risk mitigation strategy.
ue of lower CO2 levels, including in relation to overall emissions policy goals. Also even if not directly monetizable, there is a definite value in lower CO2 scenarios as a risk mitigation strategy: • In a scenario where CO2 is “only just...
AI summary The text discusses the value of lower CO2 levels in electricity generation as a risk mitigation strategy, highlighting how lower carbon intensity can support emissions reduction goals and promote electrification, which may lead to lower electricity rates. It also outlines NSP's approach to identifying common actions across scenarios in its draft action plan.
point here. 4. Consideration of Risk NSP has aimed at identifying certain actions which are generally common to all or most scenarios, and has proposed these within its initial draft action plan. A common approach is also to look for scena...
AI summary The document discusses the consideration of risk in the context of Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) action plan, emphasizing the importance of identifying low-regret scenarios that perform well across various future conditions. It also addresses the continuation of associating battery and synch comp costs with additional wind capacity, with NSP limiting wind capacity to 700 MW unless accompanied by capital-intensive batteries.
179164 September 18, 2020 2. Flexibility In contrast to prior IRPs (which specifically sought to develop a long-term “Preferred Resource Plan” from among a set of candidate resource plans), the 2020 IRP results provide a comparison of vari...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) emphasizes flexibility in resource planning due to uncertainty in future electric load growth and the need to accommodate changes in technology and government policy. This approach allows NS Power to make informed long-term decisions regarding coal retirements, new capacity additions, and renewable energy generation, while also considering regional integration efforts.
s of air pollution on human health; the latest air quality research suggests that in the US, the health benefits alone are enough to justify an immediate transition away from fossil fuels. 3. The rate impact comparison also illustrates the...
AI summary The text discusses the health benefits of transitioning from fossil fuels and highlights the inequitable economic impacts of high DER adoption, noting that wealthier individuals may benefit more from reduced energy costs, while the burden falls disproportionately on less affluent Nova Scotians. It also supports the need for steep carbon emission reductions in line with Nova Scotia’s Sustainable Development Goals Act.
(12) Are the import prices based on the costs of renewables in other provinces? Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiatives (RGGI), consistent with QRV guidelines. November 6, 2020 Results / Roadmap / Action Plan Stakeholder Comments Matrix Page 4...
AI summary The document discusses whether imported power with significant carbon emissions would make solar a more attractive option. It mentions that pricing for energy and capacity is based on forecasts from Platts Analytics and NEPOOL prices, and that solar's emissions-free profile is considered in the optimization process.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 241 of 264 Category Participant Comment NSP Response / Consideration for Final Report (18) If operating reserves were maintained at the target levels (rather than the higher levels reporte...
AI summary The document discusses a question regarding the ability of Nova Scotia Power (NSP) to dispatch additional hydro resources if operating reserves were maintained at target levels. NSP has conducted analyses on the value of hydro systems, including the Mersey Hydro system, using models like E3 and Plexos, to assess economic viability relative to decommissioning.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response / Consideration for Final Report (23) Nova Scotia Power should propose a more intentional and comprehensive electrification pilot program strategy, with the intention of setting the stage for poten...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power is advised to develop a more comprehensive electrification pilot program strategy. The evergreen IRP process is discussed, emphasizing continuous updates and annual reporting. Concerns are raised about hydro assumptions, specifically the ELCC for run-of-river hydro units, with reference to a completed capacity study.
The Capacity Study, completed as part of the pre-IRP deliverables, provides detail on the modeling of hydro in that study. Other than Wreck Cove, which was modeled as an energy-limited resource with daily In our memo of August 4, RII quest...
AI summary The Capacity Study discusses the modeling of hydro resources, particularly run-of-river hydro units, and questions the 95% ELCC assigned to them. It highlights discrepancies between estimated ELCC and actual capacity factors during peak hours, suggesting that operational limitations and water flow may impact these figures.
some years, or limited water flow limits the number of hours for which the dispatchable • Maximum monthly generation constraints, to reflect average historical water inflows units can operate. Especially if water supply is limited, these u...
AI summary The text raises questions about the discrepancy between the claimed ELCC and actual performance of small hydro units, and challenges the economic rationale for holding these units for system reserves rather than fully dispatching them during peak hours.
Natural Gas pricing E1 When developing a plan for assumptions that would require a firm gas supply, NS Power’s analysis (6) Provide an assessment of risk in Natural Gas pricing assumptions within the Findings risk indicated that volumes th...
AI summary The document discusses Natural Gas pricing assumptions within the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), highlighting risks related to gas supply from AGT. EfficiencyOne recommended including a proxy for new gas supply with sensitivity analysis for AGT prices. NS Power evaluated gas supply options based on firm access requirements for new units during winter peaks.
(TTF). (modeled as a fixed cost adder applied to gas units in the model which select this option). • Sensitivity analyses that explore the constrained availability of natural gas for the NS In addition, NS Power undertook an additional sen...
AI summary The document discusses the need for sensitivity analyses regarding natural gas availability and pricing assumptions in Nova Scotia's electricity system. It highlights that NS Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) should account for constrained natural gas supply and high import power prices, and that risk assessments related to natural gas pricing should be included in the Findings and Action Plan.
Zero emissions EAC NS Power developed several emissions profiles in consultation with stakeholders during the Assumptions While scenarios have comprehensively studied emissions reaching between 0.5 Mt and phase of the IRP, two of which inc...
AI summary NS Power developed emissions profiles during the IRP assumptions phase, aiming for 87%-95% GHG emission reductions by 2045. The EAC raised concerns about the absence of a zero-emissions scenario in the study. NS Power acknowledges the need for further analysis to achieve 100% reduction as technologies and policies evolve.
ion. emissions in the province in order to meet the SDGA net-zero 2050 target. NS Power will continue to monitor new technologies that can contribute to firm capacity and energy // production for the Nova Scotia system, and has included co...
AI summary NS Power is exploring hydrogen's potential in meeting Nova Scotia's net-zero 2050 target, as outlined in the SDGA. The Action Plan should consider replacing liquid-fueled CTs with gas-fired CTs for cost-effective firm capacity. The Offshore Energy Research Association and other stakeholders are involved in hydrogen research.
nities in the Maritimes and secured a long-term PPA for a 42 MW wind project in New Brunswick and based on this experience poses valuable insights regarding the current cost of wind in the Maritimes. LCOE for Wind in Nova Scotia ($2019/MWh...
AI summary The document discusses the potential overstatement of wind energy costs in Nova Scotia's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), noting that lower wind prices could accelerate wind buildout. NS Power is proposed to conduct a market test to assess onshore wind, solar, and battery storage costs, with CanREA advocating for expeditious action and clearer methodology.
important concerns, we have gained a better understanding of NS Power’s current thinking and we hope that an improved articulation of our concerns will convince NS Power to adopt our recommendations. Summary of RII Recommendations 1. Short...
AI summary The document outlines recommendations for NS Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including an aggressive near-term RFP for up to 700 MW of wind by 2025, parallel transmission planning, and incorporating updated data into capital applications for hydroelectric redevelopment.
this analysis was conducted using the base case assumptions for the cost of wind. As Mersey provides primarily energy benefits to the NS Power system, 17 the evaluation of any capital applications for Mersey system refurbishment must rely...
AI summary The analysis highlights the need for updated modeling and data in evaluating the Mersey system refurbishment, emphasizing the importance of considering wind and transmission costs. RII recommends delaying capital applications until more accurate data is available to avoid poor decisions.
erify or correct the findings, as appropriate. This will provide the Board with assurance that future procurements and capital investment activities are evaluated while relying on optimal assumptions. Analysis of the combustion turbine fle...
AI summary The text discusses concerns about the reliability and future operation of NS Power's diesel combustion turbine fleet. While NS Power asserts the continued operation of these units, evidence from FAM audits indicates lower reliability and increased usage than forecasted. Questions remain about the long-term viability and costs of maintaining the fleet.
ELCC for run-of-river hydro units In two prior memos, we questioned the 95% ELCC for run-of-river hydro units. NS Power has clarified that its staff believes that other than Wreck Cove, “all other hydro assets on the NS Power system includ...
AI summary The document discusses concerns over the 95% ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capacity) assigned to run-of-river hydro units by NS Power, arguing that this may not account for operational limitations such as reduced capacity during dry years and limited hours of full-load operation. The analysis highlights discrepancies between the ELCC and actual capacity factors during peak and net peak hours, suggesting a lower ELCC may be more appropriate.
to affordability, which will be adjudicated as part of subsequent DSM Resource Plan processes, as has always been the case. Further Adjustment to NPVRR w/ End Effects Results – Market Price of Carbon In its September 18, 2020 letter of com...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of carbon pricing on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the need to account for carbon revenues in revenue requirement calculations. It highlights the importance of monitoring the cap-and-trade market and the current federal pricing trajectory, while noting the lack of a clear monetary value for carbon in the 2020 IRP.
to begin now with a view to broad stakeholder engagement in Q2 or Q3, 2022. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 47 of 125 That timeframe would enable practical discussion on the results from: • Imports on the Maritime Link (...
AI summary The document discusses the timeline for stakeholder engagement in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, focusing on topics such as renewable energy integration, offshore wind, and future electricity demand. It highlights the need to consider new assumptions on renewable energy costs and the potential for increased electricity demand due to economic and population growth.
bstantial rate increases, and potentially undermining the low-carbon electrification transition. This issue is of particular relevance to the timing of decisions to develop, procure or contract firm capacity resources and enhanced inter-re...
AI summary The text discusses the potential impact of rate increases on low-carbon electrification and the importance of accurate price elasticity estimates in long-term electricity demand forecasting, referencing the BC Hydro Site C Project as an example.
itage Gas acknowledges that renewable electrification in certain sectors of the economy will be important for decarbonization in Nova Scotia. However, electrification unaccompanied with other clean 1 Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2020 Integrated...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of renewable electrification and hydrogen in achieving Nova Scotia's Net-Zero 2050 target. It highlights the role of hydrogen in sectors difficult to electrify and mentions studies supporting hydrogen's potential in Atlantic Canada. Natural gas and renewable natural gas are also noted as part of the transition strategy.
nd renewable natural gas (“RNG”) into natural gas infrastructure will further support the province in reaching the net-zero emissions target set out in the SDGA. Integrated Energy System Efficiencies While natural gas underpins the transit...
AI summary The text discusses the integration of renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen into natural gas infrastructure to support Nova Scotia's net-zero emissions target. It highlights the role of an integrated energy system in reducing greenhouse gases, improving energy resiliency, and promoting local economic growth.
6. What would the impact on electricity demand be if the thermal and electrical energy demand of the existing building stock was reduced by 50% rather than by the levels assumed in the E3 scenario analysis? 7. If greater building efficienc...
AI summary The text presents a series of questions regarding the impact of energy efficiency and electrification on electricity demand, building energy expenditures, residential heating systems, and housing stock characteristics. It also inquires about scenarios involving accelerated efficiency and electrification, and the consistency of minimizing electricity rates with total energy service costs.
page 112) of the Report states that “the scenario modeled with the Distributed Resources strategy (2.1B) is shown to have a significantly higher relative rate impact over the planning horizon”, and further notes that “the cost of the DER r...
AI summary The text highlights a significant finding regarding the Distributed Resources strategy having a higher rate impact over the planning horizon, and notes that DER resource costs could add additional rate pressure. It also compares scenarios in the IRP report, identifying two clusters based on wind capacity build-out timelines and associated factors.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response is thus warranted. The evaluation must rely on better understanding of wind and transmission development costs. Electrification Consumer NS Power’s action plan should include a specific NS Pow...
AI summary The Consumer Electrification Advocate requests NS Power to include specific commitments for transportation and building electrification pilot projects in its action plan. They also ask for an estimate of tolerable customer costs for electrification and a discussion of cost savings and system benefits. NS Power has responded by adding details to the IRP Action Plan and Final Report.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response 2019 E3 PRM analysis is sufficient to demonstrate that NS Power has achieved an “optimal” planning reserve margin. Use the RESOLVE model to repeat the essential elements of the July 2019 study...
AI summary The Consumer Advocate (2b) requests NS Power to use the RESOLVE model to re-evaluate the 2019 E3 PRM analysis and confirm findings regarding the performance of the refurbished diesel combustion turbine fleet. NS Power agrees to review performance data and make it available to stakeholders.
appreciates the analysis Advocate (3c) of-river hydro units is consistent with the operational completed by RII on historical small hydro generation record, and consider any appropriate adjustments to data. NS Power also reviewed these fig...
AI summary The analysis discusses the consistency of the ELCC values for off-river hydro units based on historical small hydro generation data. Adjustments to these values are considered, with NS Power noting that operational impacts, such as limited diesel generation during peak hours and dispatch based on resource needs, may influence the results.
While there would be a cost to this, this cost can be assessed. However, the fact that wind generation is the lowest cost domestic renewable generation resource and the limited number of hours when the conditions occur suggests that even w...
AI summary The document discusses the economic attractiveness of wind generation as a low-cost renewable resource and emphasizes the need for increased ambition in emissions reduction in the electricity sector, aligning with climate emergency declarations and the SDGA. NS Power is modeling efforts to achieve an 87%-95% reduction in GHG emissions by 2045.
dered an adequate range of planning costs and characteristics of such resources, and their scenarios through this omission, given the urgency of interaction with grid services and reliability are not well climate action. Moreover, since el...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges of aligning electricity sector planning with the SDGA, noting that current scenarios lack adequate consideration of resource costs and grid interactions. It highlights the uncertainty around achieving net-zero emissions and the potential for stranded assets if natural gas is used beyond 2050. NS Power suggests revisiting modeling once enabling technologies and legislative frameworks are more established.
cost decline over the planning horizon was larger than for onshore. Ongoing O&M costs are estimated to be 2 times more expensive than onshore wind. In addition, the Capacity Factor midpoint is estimated to be 41% for offshore wind, 2% high...
AI summary The text compares the costs and capacity factors of offshore and onshore wind energy. It notes that offshore wind has higher ongoing O&M costs and a slightly higher capacity factor compared to onshore wind.
hydrogen in Nova Scotia. Governments around the world increasingly see hydrogen as imperative in meeting the Net-Zero targets. … The study by Zen supports the development of a hydrogen economy in Atlantic Canada and shows that hydrogen cou...
AI summary The text discusses the potential role of hydrogen in Nova Scotia's energy future, highlighting its importance in meeting Net-Zero targets and its applications in building heat, energy storage, and challenging sectors like heavy transport and industry.
e the economics of maintaining these and reporting on the results during the evergreen units. nature of the IRP, particularly in light of the value of new gas fired CTs evidenced by the IRP analysis. Future Steps Heritage Gas all parties w...
AI summary The document discusses the economics of maintaining energy units and the need for monitoring developments in the energy sector to ensure access to competitive energy supplies. It also raises questions about aligning the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the 2050 net-zero carbon emission target under the Sustainable Development Goals Act (SDGA).
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response Electrification HRM Are the electrification scenarios defined in the E3 study Please see the comments above. identical to the electrification levels in the IRP scenarios? For example, is the l...
AI summary The Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) is inquiring about the alignment of electrification scenarios in the E3 study with those in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), the impact of reducing building energy demand by 50%, and the effects of increased building efficiency on energy expenditures in the context of decarbonization and electrification. NS Power refers to previous comments for responses.
indicates that building shell and weatherization measures reduce the space conditioning requirements of the residential stock by "up to 20%" however it is not clear if this maximum improvement applies to new and/or existing housing. What i...
AI summary The text raises questions about the assumed reduction in space heating intensity of the existing residential building stock by 2030 and 2045, and whether the 20% improvement from building shell and weatherization measures applies to new and existing housing. It also requests a breakdown of Nova Scotia's housing stock by type and average thermal intensity for space heating.
o assert that Nova Scotia Power’s NS Power acknowledges that the electricity sector environmental policy scenario 2.0C (Low Electrification / specific targets of the SDGA are not yet set, but NS Power P a g e 40 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Fi...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power acknowledges the electricity sector's environmental policy scenario 2.0C (Low Electrification) and notes that specific targets of the Sustainable Development Goals Act (SDGA) are not yet set.
of affordability and timing of electricity rates, which was included in the IRP Terms of Reference. Efficiency One Market price of carbon. Show results with GHG price Item 10 ($24 & $50) in report NS Power has not modeled the monetization...
AI summary The document discusses the inclusion of the market price of carbon and avoided transmission and distribution (T&D) costs in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NS Power has not modeled GHG credits in the current IRP but plans to evaluate them in the future. The inclusion of avoided T&D costs did not change the relative rankings of scenarios or DSM sensitivities.
2b. Wind is the lowest cost domestic source of renewable AREA -‘AREA is in general agreement with the comments and 2020-09-25; p.1/1 energy and is selected preferentially over solar in all technical report submitted by Natural Forces. In p...
AI summary Wind energy is identified as the lowest cost domestic renewable energy source and is prioritized over solar in resource plans. The model selects incremental wind capacity of 500-800 MW by 2045, paired with coal retirements. Lower wind prices are expected to accelerate wind buildout in the mid-2020s. AREA supports the use of alternative, lower-cost financing models for the transformation of Nova Scotia’s electricity system.
such ownership structures are captured in the “low case” scenarios. AREA believes that too many realistic individual market conditions (lower wind installed costs, higher wind net capacity factors, lower costs of capital, etc) are blended...
AI summary The text discusses the need for an all-source procurement process, including up to 700 MW of wind by 2025, conditioned on price and performance thresholds. It also critiques the 'low case' scenarios for not clearly separating the effects of various market conditions on decarbonization.
rios and sensitivities, incorporating significant comments from and engagement with EfficiencyOne as discussed in section engagement with E1 6.8.1. The Base DSM profile is shown to be economic when following their review of compared using...
AI summary The document discusses the revision of Action Plan item 2e based on the economic analysis of the Base DSM profile, as evaluated by EfficiencyOne. It highlights that the Base DSM profile is the most economic option when compared using the 25-year NPVRR metric, and suggests a focus on peak demand mitigation in future DSM planning.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE Halifax No comments n/a Regional Municipality Hendricks No comments n/a Heritage Supportive with ongoing monitoring: 2020-11-13; p. 5/5 -‘With respect to the existing CTs, NSPI has stated t...
AI summary Heritage Gas supports ongoing monitoring of the existing LFO-fired CTs due to concerns about their reliability and the inconclusive data on the impact of sustaining capital investments. This is based on an audit report that highlighted potential issues with the units.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE 3c Low-cost, low emitting generating capacity CA No comments n/a may be provided economically from coal- to- gas CanREA No comments n/a unit conversions, which are selected economically in...
AI summary Stakeholders provided feedback on the economic viability of converting coal-to-gas units for low-cost, low-emitting generating capacity. The EAC and E1 expressed concerns about fossil fuel investments and natural gas pricing risks, while Heritage supported the initiative and emphasized the need to monitor costs relative to IRP assumptions.
ACTION PLAN ITEM STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE -Incorporate industry best practices such as those programs, as well as providing additional detail, identified by the Regulatory Assistance Project as well as especially regarding...
AI summary The text outlines an action plan to incorporate industry best practices for electrification programs, focusing on transportation and building sectors as identified in the Deep Decarbonization Pathways report. It also calls for data collection on electrification demand and proposes pilot programs under NSUARB oversight.
Request / Directive Originator Status NS Power Comments Per IRP and GUO letter from NSUARB about pre-IRP NSUARB Complete Please refer to EfficiencyOne’s 2019 Potential Study deliverables: Report, filed August 14, 2019 (M08929, Exhibit N- 1...
AI summary The NSUARB requested NS Power to confirm energy efficiency costs and potential, determine peak-load reducing demand response costs, and investigate bulk-scale battery storage costs as part of pre-IRP deliverables. NS Power referenced EfficiencyOne’s 2019 Potential Study and provided a Supply Options report.