N-12025 Load Forecast Report + Appendices - Redacted
18 passages
8 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data .................................................................... 16 9 4.2 Weather Data ..........................................................................................................
AI summary The document outlines sections analyzing historical energy sales, weather data, economic factors, end-use trends (including heat pumps, EVs, solar PV), and price data. It emphasizes load forecasting, renewable integration, and demand-side management as key themes in the regulatory proceeding.
1 items to be tracked more directly to help fine-tune future forecasts. The PV forecast has been 2 updated based on actual installations in 2024. Key end uses are discussed individually below. 3 4 As with the 2024 Load Forecast, the foreca...
AI summary The document discusses the growth of heat pump usage in Nova Scotia, citing factors like grants and financing programs, and references the hybrid adoption scenario used in forecasts. It also notes the update of the PV forecast based on 2024 installations and the use of E3's load shape forecasts for space heating and EVs.
er Electrification Strategy Report released in late 2023, which 23 states “Winter peak impacts on the electricity system from cold-climate heat pumps can be 24 mitigated by encouraging hybrid (mini-split) systems and best-in-class performi...
AI summary The document references a 2023 Electrification Strategy Report discussing the impact of cold-climate heat pumps on winter electricity peaks and the 2030 Clean Power Plan's goal of reducing peak demand by 150 MW through electrification, demand response, and efficiency measures. It also cites a 2024 Annual Capital Expenditure proceeding and a 2025 Load Forecast Report.
1 the demand response and efficiency programming incorporated in the Base DSM scenario, is the 2 scenario studied in the Evergreen IRP which most closely matches this objective.” 16 The forecast 3 continues to assume 100 percent heat pump...
AI summary The text discusses NS Power's involvement in assessing demand response and efficiency programming, particularly within the Base DSM scenario and the hybrid peak scenario. NS Power is collaborating with stakeholders and organizations like NRR and E1 to evaluate the cost impacts of the hybrid approach as part of the Clean Power Plan and Load Management initiative.
1 4.4.2 Water Heaters 2 3 NS Power anticipates that some customers who convert their oil heating systems to heat pumps 4 will also convert their hot water supply to electric hot water tanks because of the annual operating 5 savings. Growth...
AI summary NS Power anticipates increased adoption of electric water heaters as customers switch from oil heating systems to heat pumps. Saturation is expected to reach 90% by 2035, though the efficiency of heat pump water heaters is not yet fully reflected in the forecast due to low uptake. Efficiency improvements are expected over time through new technology and replacement of older units.
1 EVs on the road by 2035, mostly made up of LDVs compared to a forecast of 200,000 vehicles by 2 2035 in the 2024 Load Forecast. 3 4 The impact of EVs on residential energy sales and peak (reflecting at-home charging) was analysed 5 using...
AI summary The text discusses the analysis of the impact of electric vehicles (EVs) on residential energy sales and peak demand using AMI data from 2023 and 2024. Customers were divided into two groups: new EV owners and a control group. The method compares monthly energy consumption across years to estimate the EV effect on energy usage and peak demand.
Page 46 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 • Other: all other major appliances (stoves, dishwashers, clothes washers and dryers, 2 televisions) as well as smaller appliances such as compu...
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses residential end-use intensity trends, noting an increase in heat pump usage and its impact on heating and cooling demand, a slow increase in electric water heating, and a decline in lighting and refrigerator/freezer usage due to improved efficiency. The 'Other' category shows a decline due to reduced EV sales and increased solar PV generation.
2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 Figure 36: Historical and Projected General Commercial End-Use Intensity (kWh/m2) 2 3 4 Supporting data for General commercial end-use intensities is included in Attachment 3. 5 6 For the 2025 Load Fore...
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses projected growth in the commercial and industrial sectors due to electrification programs aimed at reducing carbon emissions. These programs include converting heating loads to electricity and accelerating electric cooling technologies. Large industrial customers are assessed individually to enable electricity use while providing system benefits.
1 5.0 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 2 3 The Residential sales forecast is generated as the product of a residential average use forecast and 4 a customer count forecast. The residential average use model is specified using a SAE model 5 structure and...
AI summary The residential sector sales forecast is based on average use and customer count projections. Between 2023 and 2024, residential sales increased by 2.1% on a weather-normalized basis due to factors such as work-from-home activity, new customers, and heat pump adoption. Adjustments to heating intensity models have helped reduce forecast variances.
1 In prior forecasts single-family homes were assumed to use approximately 16,000 kWh per year 2 on average, while multi-unit homes were assumed to use 4,860 kWh per year on average. Using 3 AMI data, a study was conducted to compare elect...
AI summary The text compares electricity consumption between single-family homes (SFU) and multi-unit residential buildings (MURB), noting SFUs use about three times more electricity. Newer buildings, regardless of type, show lower consumption due to energy-efficient technologies and materials, while older buildings have higher consumption due to outdated systems.
he 2024 Load Forecast, the heating penetration from the 8 residential class was used as the end-use intensities are similar. 9 10 Figure 49: Historical and Forecast Annual Small General Sales 11 12 13 Please refer to Appendix B for tables...
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses changes in load demand, highlighting a 0.8% annual decrease in General class load over the 10-year forecast period. Factors include reduced EV load, commercial energy impacts from hybrid heating, and the influence of DSM programs and increased efficiency. Sales shifting to the RTR market and higher solar generation are expected to reduce sales significantly by 2035.
ns at several hospital sites in the province. The forecast for 8 customer growth related to new projects/expansions is provided in Figure 51. 9 10 Figure 51: Large General Annual Growth (GWh) 11 Year 2025 2026 2027 2028 2025 Forecast 3 3 4...
AI summary The document discusses energy load forecasts, including customer growth projections and the impact of demand-side management (DSM) on overall energy consumption. It mentions a forecasted decrease in large general annual sales by 12 GWh by 2035 due to DSM efforts surpassing projected growth.
sity energy amounts from the end-use models. 10 11 Figure 69 below shows illustrative breakdowns of contribution to peak by Residential end use. 12 13 Figure 69: Residential End-Use Peak Shares 14 15 16 Over the forecast period, the greate...
AI summary The text discusses changes in residential and commercial end-use contributions to peak energy demand over the forecast period, highlighting the increasing impact of electric vehicles (EVs) and decreasing impact of electric heating sources, while other end uses remain relatively stable.
Residential Commercial Industrial Municipal Total Year Sector Growth Sector Growth Sector Growth and Other Growth Losses Energy Growth GWh % GWh % GWh % GWh % GWh GWh % 2015 4,504 2.3 3,251 0.9 2,456 -2.6 197 -0.2 691 11,099 0.6 2016 4,264...
AI summary The table shows energy consumption trends across residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal sectors from 2015 to 2027, with varying growth rates and fluctuations, including significant declines in some years and increases in others.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix B Page 12 of 34 Small General Model Statistics Model Statistics Iterations 14 Adjusted Observations 120 Deg. of Freedom for 109 Error R-Squared 0.954 Adjusted R-Squared 0...
AI summary The Small General Demand customer forecast model is constructed similarly to the residential model, including heat pump programs within the SAE model. Adjustments outside the regression include estimates for other commercial and industrial growth programs, PV, EV, RTR, and DSM.
drogen facilities could all have a significant impact on energy and EVs, hydrogen facilities and batteries could have a significant impact on peak. Figure D8 shows the relative impact of these items. Figure D8: Relative Impact of Inputs 20...
AI summary The document discusses the potential impacts of various energy-related factors on energy and peak demand in Nova Scotia for the years 2025 and 2035, including demand-side management, solar PV, EVs, hydrogen production, batteries, and weather/economics scenarios.
8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 9 of 19 Behind the Meter Solar • Small scale solar uptake continues to be strong: as of 2024 approximately 97 MW of solar generation has been installed...
AI summary The document discusses the growth of behind-the-meter solar installations in Nova Scotia, noting increased uptake and legislative changes leading to a higher long-term forecast. It also addresses the Renewable to Retail (RTR) program, with updated forecasts for sales and uncertainty around its impact.
12 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 13 of 19 Forecast Comparison – Commercial • Similar to the Residential forecast, Commercial sales will be impacted by slower EV sales, increased behin...
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E discusses forecast comparisons for Commercial, Industrial, and Energy sectors. It notes impacts from slower EV sales, increased behind-the-meter solar production, and higher RTR sales, leading to changes in load forecasts and sales trends through 2034.
N-7NSPI (Synapse) RIR 1 to 29 - Redacted
7 passages
0.27 † Economics 0.381 0.58 Wind at Peak 0.032 0.1 Sensitivity: 2026 Peak Sensitivity: 2026 No DSM Total Sales Sensitivity: 2035 No DSM Total Sales 1% 3% † Monthly HDD † Monthly CDD † Economics 8% 38% 49% 47% 17% 47% 15% 75%
AI summary The text presents a sensitivity analysis related to wind energy at peak times and total sales under different scenarios, including the impact of demand-side management (DSM) and economic factors. It also references monthly heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as variables affecting energy demand.
1 (v) For the hybrid heating scenario, how did E3 model switching behavior 2 between electric and fossil backup heat? What temperature threshold, if any, 3 was assumed for backup system use? 4 5 (vi) Please explain how NSPI estimates its H...
AI summary The text consists of a series of questions directed at Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) regarding its modeling of heat pump behavior, estimation of heating intensities, and the discrepancy between energy and peak forecasts. The questions focus on assumptions, data sources, and validation of models related to hybrid heating systems and residential energy use.
2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (vi-viii) The “Fossil Fuel” category in Attachment 1 includes all fossil fuel types but does 2 not distinguish between them. The pred...
AI summary NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests discuss the 'Fossil Fuel' category in the 2025 Load Forecast Report, noting that oil is the predominant fossil heating type in Nova Scotia. It also outlines the scope of the Hybrid Heating Study, which aims to assess the potential of hybrid heating programs to manage winter peak demand as clean energy and electrification expand.
chnologies, incentive structures, administration 28 models, and performance metrics. 29 30 2. Customer Research Date Filed: August 19, 2025 NSPI (Synapse) IR-26 Page 6 of 10 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Re...
AI summary The document outlines steps for customer research, electric-system modeling, program operationalization, and reporting. It references the 2025 Load Forecast Report and the E3 analysis, which was completed in 2022. The report includes data on residential electrification and heating system configurations.
2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (iv) Please refer to Figure 24 of the report. 2 3 (f) 4 (i) For Figure 21, please refer to Attachment 1, HP Stock tab. For Figure 22,...
AI summary NSPI provides responses to Synapse Information Requests regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report, referencing specific figures and attachments. The report discusses the use of the E3 model for forecasting hybrid heating systems and heat pump impacts, citing the 'Current Trends Hybrid' scenario and peak temperature assumptions.
2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-27: 2 3 Residential Water Heaters (WH) (Section 4.4, p. 37) and the “2025 LFR Attachment 01 EO 4 - Residential Intensities...
AI summary NSPI provided detailed responses to Synapse's information requests regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report, specifically addressing the development of water heating intensity forecasts, data sources for efficiency values, and the methodology for estimating peak load impacts from electric water heaters.
2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑥𝑥 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖2015 × ( ) 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑥 1 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑥𝑥 = 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎2015 ( ) 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒...
AI summary The document discusses NSPI's responses to Synapse's information requests regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report. It mentions that heat pump water heaters are not directly incorporated into the forecast but are expected to improve water heater efficiency. Data is provided by Itron, and NS Power does not estimate peak load impacts for individual appliances.
N-8Evidence - Synapse
11 passages
The 2025 forecast predicts a 242 gigawatt-hour (GWh) decrease—2.1 percent—in the net system requirement (NSR) from 2025 to 2035. NS Power lays out the components of this change in Figure 59 of its report, as shown in Table 1. The “Model” g...
AI summary The 2025 forecast predicts a 2.1% (242 GWh) decrease in net system requirement (NSR) from 2025 to 2035, driven by electrification, EV growth, and new customers, offset by rooftop solar, DSM, and RTR sales. Hybrid heating adjustments further reduce NSR.
0% -1.6% load Note: Residential sales are the sum of existing customer load, new customer load, and EV load, minus solar load, RTR, hybrid, and DSM. Source: Appendix B from 2025 Load Forecast In addition to the outsized contribution of EVs...
AI summary Residential electricity consumption is projected to grow due to EV adoption, new customers, and electrification (heat pumps, electric water heating). Existing customer usage is expected to rise 5.8% by 2035, with heat pumps driving 64% of the increase. NSPI attributes this to rising heat pump adoption, increasing XHeat and XCool load intensities by 33.3% and 25.2%, respectively.
reases in heating and cooling are driven by growing use of heat pumps, which contributes to a 33.3 percent increase in the XHeat load intensities and a 25.2 percent increase in XCool load intensities. In total energy terms, Figure 47 of th...
AI summary Heat pump adoption is driving significant increases in residential heating and cooling loads in Nova Scotia, with projections showing 685 GWh additional heating and 102 GWh cooling demand by 2035. NSPI forecasts 80% heat pump saturation by 2035, supported by financial incentives, while noting displacement of electric baseboard heating and fossil fuel use.
ghtforward. But given these disparities—and the likelihood of additional differences in efficiency assumptions—it is not valid to estimate hybrid effects by directly comparing the two models’ outputs. A better method would be for NSPI to r...
AI summary The text critiques NSPI's approach to estimating hybrid heating impacts on load forecasts, advocating instead for scaling its models using E3's hybrid heating analysis. It highlights a 40% lower peak load impact in dual-fuel scenarios and emphasizes ensuring consistency in heat pump saturation levels across scenarios for accurate adjustments.
gy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regarding Nova Scotia Power’s 2025 Load Forecast 12 Figure 3. E3 2023 study’s estimates of non-coincident peak load impacts, by scenario Source: E3. 2023. The Economics of Electrification in Nova Scotia. Figure...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) faces criticism for its 2025 load forecast methodology, particularly its commercial heat pump assumptions. The forecast uses an unexplained linear trajectory for electric heating stock and an unspecified U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) source for efficiency improvements after 2029, raising concerns about validity and transparency.
5 Load Forecast 13 improvement rate to just 0.1 percent per year, based on a source that appears to come from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), but is not actually specified by NSPI. 25 NSPI’s approach to efficiency improvement...
AI summary The text critiques NSPI's load forecasting methodology for underestimating efficiency gains from heat pump adoption and relying on unspecified EIA data. It supports NSPI's planned use of AMI data to improve forecasting accuracy by analyzing end-use technologies' impacts on load shapes.
tize this effort as it works to refine its modeling of electric heating impacts. 25 2025 LFR Attachment 03 EO – Commercial General Intensities. “Efficiency” tab. 26 2025 Load Forecast, page 90. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regar...
AI summary Synapse Energy Economics Inc. analyzes Nova Scotia Power’s 2025 load forecast, highlighting assumptions about electric water heater adoption, projected increases in XOther due to water heating usage, and the exclusion of heat pump efficiency improvements despite rebate programs. The analysis emphasizes the need for monitoring these assumptions and their impacts on residential energy demand.
umers. NSPI states that this development “is considered but not used directly in the forecast,” as there has not been enough time to collect data on the impact of the policy change on sales volumes.33 The forecast predicts that there will...
AI summary NSPI forecasts over 160,000 EVs in Nova Scotia by 2035, projecting 718 GWh energy load and 106-152 MW peak load impacts. The forecast uses AMI data for at-home charging but relies on E3’s EV Load Shaping Tool for commercial and heavy-duty vehicle assumptions. NSPI notes limited data on policy impacts and uncertainty around managed charging assumptions.
ign or other programmatic options. 5. NSPI should continue to evaluate and update its solar installation projections and coincidence factors for solar so they align with the latest data. 6. NSPI should begin to incorporate the impacts of r...
AI summary The text outlines several recommendations for NSPI regarding the accuracy and comprehensiveness of its load forecasting and analysis, including updates to solar projections, incorporation of rate design impacts, and scenario analysis for uncertain technologies and programs.
ially for peak management. 7. NSPI should validate the use of new home construction as a proxy for customer growth, addressing concerns about potential shortcomings of this proxy variable. 8. We ask that NSPI reassess its modeling approach...
AI summary The document outlines several requests for NSPI to refine its load forecasting and modeling approaches, including validating proxies for customer growth, reassessing the impact of the pandemic on residential load, and considering the effects of solar, DSM, and industrial electrification on load forecasts. It also emphasizes the need to explore real-time rates and time-of-use rates to manage peak load increases.
gs. 16. We ask NSPI to investigate what can be done with time-of-use rates and other measures to mitigate the peak load increases for all these components, especially for the C&I sectors. 17. NSPI should conduct an analysis of portfolio EL...
AI summary The text outlines several recommendations for NSPI regarding load management, including investigating time-of-use rates, analyzing ELCC values for demand response, evaluating impacts of electrification and EVs, and developing scenarios for uncertain future technologies such as heat pumps and demand-side management.