Topic:"Energy Efficiency" in M12861

1 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 3 In accordance with the Nova Scotia Wholesale Electricity and Renewable to Retail Market Rules, 4 Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power, the Company) is required to provide the Nova Scotia 5 Energy Board (NSEB,...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) is required to submit annual 10-year energy and demand forecasts to the Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB). The Independent Electrical System Operator Nova Scotia (IESO-NS), established under the Energy Reform (2024) Act, will oversee electricity demand forecasting. The 2026 Load Forecast considers factors like weather, economic indicators, and energy efficiency programs, acknowledging inherent uncertainties.

1 • The economic data used in the medium industrial class, including evaluation of 2 manufacturing employment, has been updated. Please refer to Section 4.4. 3 • The impacts of hybrid heat pumps have been modelled and included in the under...

AI summary Updates to the 2026 Load Forecast include revised economic data, hybrid heat pump modeling, and solar installation updates. NS Power engaged stakeholders, discussing changes like heat pump impacts, EV demand, and renewable-to-retail effects, with references to technical sections.

Page 32 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of projected electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2026. It includes detailed forecasts based on various factors such as heating and cooling degree days, as well as the impact of energy efficiency programs and demand-side management initiatives.

1 to achieve benefits to the system (see Section 10.4). Figure 27 shows the expected changes in 2 electric water heater saturation and overall intensity over the forecast period. 3 4 Consistent with the Board’s direction in the 2025 Load F...

AI summary The document discusses the modeling of heat pump water heaters as a separate end use in Nova Scotia, their current and projected saturation rates, and factors influencing their growth, including U.S. efficiency standards and a market transformation pilot by E1. Efficiency improvements are modeled with heat pump water heaters at 40% of standard electric water heaters.

1,653 24 1,677 2036 82 3 85 1,661 26 1,687 2 3 4.5.4 Electric Vehicles (EVs) 4 EV sales were higher than forecast in 2025, despite the conclusion of provincial light-duty vehicle 5 EV rebates in May 2025, and the temporary pausing of feder...

AI summary EV sales in Nova Scotia exceeded 2025 forecasts despite the end of provincial rebates and temporary federal incentives. As of 2025, there were approximately 9,600 EVs in the province, leading to an updated 2026 load forecast. The ramp-up in EV adoption is expected to be less steep due to changes in policy, including the cancellation of the EV Availability Standard and a revised federal ZEV mandate.

E3, including the impact to LDV load 16 and peak from both at-home and public charging (assumed to add 10 percent to annual energy and 17 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak based on the E3 load shapes). 18 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 46 of 105 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses the impact of light-duty vehicles (LDV) on energy load and peak demand, including both at-home and public charging scenarios. It assumes an increase of 10 percent in annual energy use and 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak demand based on E3 load shapes.

Page 51 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 PV and EV are modeled outside the regression but are estimated in the “Other” category below in 2 order to illustrate their impact relative to...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses the modeling of residential end-use intensities, including electric heating, cooling, water heating, lighting, and other appliances. PV and EV are modeled separately and included in the 'Other' category to illustrate their impact on overall load.

Page 52 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 The intensity trends are similar to those in prior forecasts. The use of heat pumps for space heating 2 is forecast to increase steadily throug...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses trends in residential and commercial energy use, noting an increase in heat pump adoption, a decline in electric baseboard heating, and a rise in electric water heating and EV usage. Commercial end-use intensities are forecast on a per square metre basis, with various categories outlined.

ters and printers 26 • Misc: other loads including motors, servers, escalators, medical equipment, etc. Small 27 scale solar and EV load have also been included in this category. 28 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 53 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses historical and projected end-use intensities for commercial sectors, noting updated baseline data from the EIA 2025 Annual Energy Outlook. The report highlights a reduction in residential energy usage due to new appliance standards, while commercial energy intensity has increased.

8 household, driven primarily by new appliance standards, while the commercial sector sees an 9 increase in average building electric intensity. 10 11 4.5.8 Commercial and Industrial Growth 12 The commercial and industrial sectors are proj...

AI summary The commercial and industrial sectors are expected to grow due to electrification programs aimed at reducing emissions. These programs include converting heating loads to electricity and accelerating the adoption of electric cooling technologies. Forecasts for electrification by sector are provided in Figure 37.

1 5. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 2 3 The Residential sales forecast is generated as the product of a residential average use forecast and 4 a customer count forecast. The residential average use model is specified using a SAE model 5 structure and...

AI summary The residential sector sales forecast is based on average use and customer count projections, with EVs and solar contributing to load. The forecast accounts for billing issues from a cyber incident, using accrued sales for 2025. Weather-normalized sales grew by 0.9% in 2025, driven by new customers and heat pumps.

Page 63 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 The forecast for new construction in 2025 was 7,726 units, while actual customer growth was 2 7,111. Nova Scotia’s population continues to incr...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses population growth, housing projections, and residential energy consumption assumptions. It notes lower population growth forecasts due to reduced federal immigration targets and outlines expected housing units and energy use per household, factoring in building efficiency and house size trends.

ecast period due predominantly to less solar 22 generation, greater EV load, and reduced DSM in the period 2027 to 2031. Individual class 23 components are discussed in greater detail below. 24 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 68 of 105 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses load growth in the Small General Service class, noting a 2.0% annual increase due to heating electrification, commercial EV uptake, and other factors. Solar generation and DSM are moderating this growth, while changes in EIA input efficiencies and lower solar output are contributing to a higher forecast compared to 2025.

Page 69 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 48: Historical and Forecast Annual Small General Sales 2 3 4 5 Please refer to Appendix B for tables with a detailed breakdown of the ch...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report indicates a sharp decrease in General class load initially due to sales shifting to the RTR market, followed by a stabilization period. Load is expected to recover by 2036, with differences from the 2025 forecast attributed to reduced solar load and increased EV load.

1 9. NET SYSTEM REQUIREMENT 2 3 The NSR is the energy required to supply the sum of residential, commercial, and industrial 4 electricity sales, plus the associated system losses, within the province of Nova Scotia. Loads 5 served by indus...

AI summary The Net System Requirement (NSR) in Nova Scotia is calculated based on residential, commercial, and industrial electricity sales, plus system losses. The 2025 NSR was slightly lower than forecast due to colder weather and a large customer variance. From 2026 to 2036, NSR is expected to grow at 0.4% annually, driven by new customers, heating, and EV adoption, partially offset by solar, DSM, and RTR initiatives.

growth 18 driven by new customers, space heating and EV adoption, and with solar, DSM and RTR migration 19 offsetting sales. Annual NSR is shown below in Figure 57. Forecast NSR values and the 20 contribution to NSR from the different sect...

AI summary The document discusses the growth in Net System Requirement (NSR) driven by new customers, space heating, and EV adoption, with solar, DSM, and RTR migration offsetting sales. The forecast NSR is higher than the 2025 forecast due to decreased solar generation and increased EV penetration.

-25 -411 models 2 37 This corresponds to the portion of energy provided by NS Power as top-up under the Energy Balancing Service tariff (as outlined in Section 4.8). DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 82 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMO...

AI summary The document refers to a portion of energy provided by NS Power under the Energy Balancing Service tariff, as outlined in Section 4.8. It also mentions the 2026 Load Forecast Report, which has been redacted.

27 August 31 September 24 October 5 November 0 December 0 2 3 10.6 End Use Peak Estimates 4 5 While the Load Forecast is a good statistical fit for the historical data, it presents challenges when 6 trying to assess the contribution of ind...

AI summary The document discusses the 2026 Load Forecast Report, highlighting changes in residential and commercial end-use contributions to peak demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to increase their share from 0.4% in 2026 to 4.5% by 2035, while electric heating sources will decrease from 68.3% to 65.7% over the same period.

7 by comparison, fluctuating by at most ± 0.5 percent. 8 9 Figure 72 shows the breakdown in the contribution to peak by Commercial end use. 10 11 Figure 72: Commercial End-Use Peak Shares 12 13 14 15 As with the residential class, there is...

AI summary The text discusses the increasing contribution of electric vehicles (EVs) to peak electricity demand in the commercial sector, rising from 0.2% in 2026 to 10.7% in 2035 due to the electrification of space heating. Figure 72 illustrates the breakdown of commercial end-use peak shares.

Figure 76 shows the peak forecast, which includes the latest adjustments (wind, 12-hour and 24- 2 hour temperature averages) to the peak end-use model. 3 4 Figure 76: System Peak Sensitivity 5 6 7 This analysis provides a potential range o...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 Load Forecast and its comparison with the Evergreen IRP cases, highlighting sensitivity to temperature and economics. It notes the lower estimate for load served through the RTR market in the 2022 Load Forecast and the slow ramp-up of EV and heat pump uptake to meet net zero emissions by 2050.

Interruptible Demand Firm Net Temp at 12hr Lag 24hr Lag Contribution Response Contribution Growth System Peak Temp Temp Year to Peak (reduction in to Peak Notes Peak Firm Peak only, (%) (MW) MW) (MW) (deg C) (deg C) (MW) (deg C) - December...

AI summary The table presents data on interruptible demand and firm peak contributions to system peak in Nova Scotia from 2016 to 2018. It includes metrics such as net growth, temperature at peak, and temperature lags for each year, with notes indicating specific dates and conditions.

MOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix B Page 7 of 34 Residential SAE Model Fit Residential Model 2026-2036 Reconciliation The following tables provide details reflecting the changes between 2026 and 2036 forecast years. Some of the num...

AI summary The document provides a reconciliation of residential load forecasts from 2026 to 2036, showing changes in various factors such as existing customers, new EVs, solar, RTR, and DSM. The data highlights a slight decrease in average use from 2026 to 2036, with notable increases in new EVs and solar, and significant changes in DSM captured.

drogen facilities could all have a significant impact on energy and EVs, hydrogen facilities and batteries could have a significant impact on peak. Figure D8 shows the relative impact of these items. Figure D8: Relative Impact of Inputs 20...

AI summary The text discusses the potential impact of various energy-related factors, including demand-side management (DSM), solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), hydrogen production, and battery storage, on energy and peak demand in 2026 and 2036. It highlights the relative contributions of these factors to energy and peak demand under different scenarios.

DACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 11 of 21 Heat Pump Electric Water Heaters • Modelled as a separate end-use to “standard” electric water heaters. Saturation (%) Load (GWh) • Intensity and...

AI summary The document discusses the modeling of heat pump electric water heaters as a separate end-use category, with estimates provided by EfficiencyOne. It also updates the Renewable to Retail load forecast, noting changes in load migration timing and class distribution, particularly a decrease in residential and medium industrial load and an increase in general demand.

asses, especially General Demand). Class 2025 Forecast (GWh) 2026 Forecast (GWh) Residential 117 49 Commercial 176 255 Industrial 128 117 Total 421 421 12 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E P...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report compares residential electricity demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key factors influencing the change include less solar generation, higher EV sales, less RTR migration, lower heat pump penetration, and a delayed, weaker hybrid impact.

ons incorporated into 2026 Load Forecast. Heat Pump Water Heaters Introduced as a separate End-Use in Residential model. RTR Delayed migration, changed class distribution. Peak Model Updated based on analysis of 2026 system peak (25th Janu...

AI summary The text discusses updates to the 2026 Load Forecast, including the incorporation of heat pump water heaters as a new end-use category in the residential model, changes to the RTR migration, and an updated peak model based on the 2026 system peak analysis. These updates are part of the 2026 Load Forecast Report, with attachments filed electronically.

Muni Forecasts Apr-09 to Mar-10 Domestic Commercial Industrial Losses Total 74.6 97.2 20.6 7.7 200.10 GWh 37.3% 48.6% 10.3% 3.8% 100% old1 37.3% 48.6% 10.3% 3.8% 100% old2 38.5% 47.5% 8.0% 6.0% 100% TOTAL Total NS SECTOR TOTALS: MUNICIPAL...

AI summary The text presents electricity consumption forecasts for the period April 2009 to March 2010, including domestic, commercial, industrial, and losses data. It provides percentages and total consumption in gigawatt-hours (GWh) for different sectors and includes historical comparisons.

Losses + Change Summary without YEAR INDUSTRIAL Municipal BUTU EBS Total Sales in Unbilled Requirement Loads Domestic Commercial Industrial Losses Total Growth PTP Forecast OATT including Muni Domestic Commercial Industrial Losses ΔGWh bef...

AI summary The table presents data on energy sales, losses, and related metrics across multiple years, including industrial, municipal, and total sales figures, along with unbilled requirements and growth rates. The data spans from 1991 to 1996 and includes metrics such as domestic, commercial, and industrial loads, losses, and total growth.

Total EV Incremental EV ENERGY load Load Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 2016 2017 0 2018 0 2019 0 2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2022 0.0...

AI summary The document presents a table showing the total and incremental energy load for electric vehicles (EVs) from 2016 to 2027. The data indicates that EV load starts to increase significantly in 2026, with a total of 8.0 units, and continues to grow in 2027, reaching 19.3 units. The table provides monthly breakdowns of the load for each year.

Total EV Incremental EV ENERGY load Load Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 2016 2017 0 2018 0 2019 0 2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0...

AI summary The document presents a table showing the total and incremental energy load for electric vehicles (EVs) from 2016 to 2028. The data indicates a significant increase in EV load starting in 2026, with the total EV load reaching 14.0 in 2026 and increasing to 47.5 in 2028.

Forecast no No DSM Previous Year Actuals DSM Launch with Launch Small General BCurrent For Forecast 2001 2002 104,447.37 2003 109,056.34 109.06 109.06 2004 164,678.82 164.68 164.68 2005 232,201.41 232.20 232.20 2006 232,600.73 232.60 232.6...

AI summary The text presents a table showing electricity usage forecasts and actuals from 2001 to 2021, comparing scenarios with and without demand-side management (DSM). The table highlights the impact of DSM on energy consumption over time, with specific figures for each year.

1 Request IR-1: 30 residential heating intensity is forecast as 3,317 kWh/house. 1 (i) Please confirm that NS Power assumes that electric load will be reduced by 48 2 MW in each and every hour in which the customer uses non-electric backup...

AI summary The text outlines a series of requests for clarification regarding NS Power's assumptions about energy reduction from a residential hybrid heating program. It asks whether NS Power assumes non-electric backup heating systems reduce electric load by 48 MW per hour, and whether the calculated energy reduction aligns with the forecasted residential heating intensity.

Results - Peak impact = ~100 200 MW reduction by 2035, depending on adoption. No impact for Scenario 2 (CPP-based). - This is because there was no CPP event at the time of system peak in 2022. - Based on results from Scenarios 1 & 3, impac...

AI summary The peak impact is estimated at ~100 200 MW reduction by 2035, depending on adoption, with no impact for Scenario 2. Energy impact is calculated based on the difference between status quo and hybrid heat use, showing a reduction of ~2887 kwh annually due to secondary electric heating.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report, page 40, lines 3-11 4 5 Based on the 2026 Load Forecast report, E1 understands that the hybrid heating 6 participation rate is based on a 50 percent adopti...

AI summary The text requests clarification and explanation from NS Power regarding the assumptions and methodology used in the 2026 Load Forecast Report, particularly concerning hybrid heating participation rates, energy and peak demand reductions, and the use of AMI data for revised estimates.

1 2 (c) Please explain why the modelled hybrid heating program has an average annual 3 energy reduction of 3,034 kWh. 4 5 (d) What percent reduction does 3,034 kWh represent for: 6 7 (i) an average residential customer's total annual elect...

AI summary The text requests explanations and data related to a hybrid heating program's energy reduction impact, including calculations, methodologies, and underlying assumptions. It also asks for alignment with NS Power's characterization and sources for the program's energy and demand impacts.

(c) Please refer to CA IR-1 part (f). Hybrid event trigger scenario Event hours 2035 11,939 12,015 -76 0.6 2,730 2,774 -44 1.6 2036 12,097 12,180 -83 0.7 2,765 2,813 -48 1.7 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 (a) How does participation in residential hyb...

AI summary The text discusses questions raised about residential hybrid heating participation, including how incentives and customer types affect participation and the confidence in forecasts. NS Power notes they are not proposing a hybrid heating program and are relying on the Hybrid Heating Study by Net Zero Atlantic (NZA) for insights, while acknowledging uncertainty in the forecasts.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 27 (d) In the 2025 Report, the peak load forecast was informed by NS Power's previously highest 28 peak, which occurred on February 4, 2023. This peak, and the subsequent forecasts, were 29 characterized by...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 and 2026 peak load forecasts, highlighting the impact of prolonged cold spells and the updating of the peak model. It also mentions variability in year-over-year forecasts due to factors such as EV additions and electrification, and references employment data from Statistics Canada.

Request IR-4: - Page 40 explains that NS Power's consultant E3, estimated a reduction of 200 GWh under a - hybrid scenario, but NS Power does not consider it to be attainable. Please elaborate on the - results of the modeling leading NS Po...

AI summary NS Power's modeling, based on actual heating load profiles from 20,000 customers, estimates a maximum attainable energy reduction of -83 GWh under a hybrid heating program by 2035, revising a previous estimate of -200 GWh due to more realistic assumptions.

participation assumptions. 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 Page 44 provides statistics on battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 4 Nova Scotia in 2025. Please provide the source of these data. 5 6 (a) How do these statistics...

AI summary The document discusses the source of statistics on battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in Nova Scotia in 2025, noting that NS Power uses data from Statistics Canada and S&P Global Mobility instead of the Province's Electric Vehicle Registration Data due to concerns about accuracy and misclassification.

- 3 undertaken. 1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Hybrid Heating, Section 4.5.4, 4 Electric Vehicles, and respond to the following: 5 6 (a) The forecast models hybrid heating at 50% participation...

AI summary The response to Request IR-2 discusses whether the existing transmission and distribution system can accommodate higher penetration of hybrid heating and managed EV charging. It notes that flexible, peak-shaping load would require less reinforcement than unmanaged load, but localized constraints may still necessitate targeted upgrades.

1 2 11 NS Power recommended examining additional cases that electrify these off‑peak, non‑winter hours. Historical hourly usage patterns indicate there are opportunities in heat pump heating, resistive electric water heating, and EV chargi...

AI summary NS Power suggests examining additional electrification cases during off-peak, non-winter hours, highlighting opportunities in heat pump heating, electric water heating, and EV charging. They recommend avoiding the inversion of the avoided cost series for energy efficiency and demand response, as the load profiles differ significantly from those of SE measures involving fossil fuel heating conversions.

1 transportation. Accordingly, NS Power's view is that the avoided cost series of DSM is not 2 fully representative of the value SE brings to the system or where it drives costs. 3 4 As an initial step to support the evaluation of the cost...

AI summary NS Power argues that the avoided cost series of demand-side management (DSM) does not fully represent the value of strategic electrification (SE) or where it drives costs. They suggest developing a new cost series to reflect increased grid costs from additional load and propose collaboration with E1 to develop avoided cost calculations for DSM activities.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 1 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Average of large customer co 2013 6 92.0 5.0 2013 7 6.3 75.7 2013 8 14.2 16.4 2013 9 88.3 4.5 2013 10 228.0 0.0 2013 11...

AI summary The document presents a redacted load forecast report with data on average large customer consumption and heating/cooling degree days (HDD18/CDD18) from 2013 to 2018. It includes monthly values for energy use and climatic factors, but key details are redacted.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 12 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Cust Count Change in Res Customers Population Change in Population Housing Completions Starts Household Size Year...

AI summary The document presents a table showing historical data on customer count, population changes, housing completions, and household size from 2004 to 2007. The data is part of a 2026 Load Forecast Report and is used for analyzing trends in residential energy consumption.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 34 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2023 2024 2025 billed 2025 accrued 2026 Residential WN (kWh) 21,157,507 33,365,662 -29,778,051 -5,732,680 -10,861,808 1...

AI summary The document presents a load forecast report for residential energy consumption from 2023 to 2036, including billed and accrued values, monthly breakdowns, and the impact of various factors such as solar, EVs, and DSM programs on total sales and energy usage.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 189 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Item 2026 NSR Energy (GWh) 2026 Firm Peak (MW) 2036 NSR Energy (GWh) 2036 Firm Peak (MW) 2023 11,131 11,131 11,131 11,...

AI summary The document presents a load forecast report for 2026, including energy consumption (in GWh) and firm peak demand (in MW) for various years, from 2023 to 2036. The data shows fluctuations in energy and peak demand over time, with specific figures outlined in tables.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 196 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Item 2026 Energy (GWh) 2026 Peak (MW) 2036 Energy (GWh) 2036 Peak (MW) Included in Forecast DSM (base case) -116 -19 -...

AI summary The document presents a 2026 Load Forecast Report, highlighting the impact of various factors on energy demand and peak load, including demand-side management, solar PV, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, battery storage, and price elasticity. The report includes multiple scenarios and confidence intervals for the years 2026 and 2036.

2015-2024 all months 2021–2024 all months 2015–2024 winter only Class System Class- tailored System Class- tailored System Class- tailored Residential 92.5% 92.9% 96.6% 96.6% 81.5% 81.7% Date Filed: July 7, 2026

AI summary The table presents data on residential class energy consumption across different time periods, showing percentages for system and class-tailored categories. The data spans from 2015 to 2024, with specific emphasis on winter months. The document was filed on July 7, 2026.

2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Inc. Information Requests 1 Request IR-5: 1 the P10/P90 sensitivity provided in Section 11 of the Report. This represents 20 years of 2 economic fluctuation...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) addresses Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s information requests regarding sensitivity analysis, forecast accuracy, and assumptions about new technologies. It discusses uncertainties from trade tariffs, differences between forecasted and actual residential customer additions, and the assumption of distributed solar-plus-storage or storage-only deployments.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 and collect heat pump and total house hourly load data, and measure heat-pump 17 heat pumps that replace electric heat sources and heat pumps that replace non 18 electric heat sources. 1 Request IR-8: 2 3 4 Residential H...

AI summary The document requests detailed documentation and analysis related to the residential hybrid heating program, including workpapers, reports, and cost impact assessments conducted by NS Power in collaboration with the Department of Energy and other stakeholders.

23 Vehicle Type Avg kWh/year Avg kW/vehicle on Peak BEV 4,202 0.6 PHEV 2,101 0.6 MDV 8,205 1.6 HDV 113,890 7.3 24

AI summary The text provides data on average annual electricity consumption (kWh/year) and peak power demand (kW/vehicle) for different vehicle types, including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), Medium Duty Vehicles (MDV), and Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV).

I. Identification & Qualifications - Q: Mr. Wilson, please state your name, occupation, and business address. - A: I am John D. Wilson. I am the Vice President of Grid Strategies LLC, Bethesda, MD. - Q: Summarize your professional educatio...

AI summary John D. Wilson, Vice President of Grid Strategies LLC, discusses his educational background and professional experience in energy and environmental policy, including work with the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and involvement in utility regulatory research, conservation programs, and ratemaking.

Q: Has NS Power used a consistent heating intensity forecast over the past several years? A: No. NS Power's residential heating intensity forecasts have varied considerably over the past several years. In its 2024 Load Forecast Report, NS...

AI summary NS Power has not used a consistent heating intensity forecast over the past several years. Forecasts have varied significantly, with a 40% increase in residential heat pump heating intensity in 2024, followed by a reversal in the 2026 report, where the actual residential heating intensity dropped from 1,849 kWh/house to 1,655 kWh/house.

The method for differentiating heating intensity for customers with heat pumps included two steps. First, for the years 2016-2021 (historical data), the heating intensity was enhanced by an average of 2.1% per year. Then, working from the...

AI summary NS Power adjusted the method for calculating heating intensity for customers with heat pumps, enhancing it by 2.1% annually from 2016-2021 and then 0.7% annually from 2021 onward. The method was revised in 2024 to address unallocated variance, which was found to be primarily weather-dependent. The 2024 adjustment increased the heating intensity enhancement for 2016-2021 to 2.6% annually.

Q: Is NS Power's residential hybrid heating forecast reasonable? A: No. The energy-to-demand reduction ratio is far too high. NS Power forecasts that the maximum demand reduction per customer is 2.76 kW during the peak hour and, depending...

AI summary The residential hybrid heating forecast by NS Power is deemed unreasonable due to an overly high energy-to-demand reduction ratio. The forecast assumes a maximum demand reduction of 2.76 kW per customer and significant annual energy savings, but it is criticized for misinterpreting data from a 2022 Itron study and not accurately representing hybrid heating scenarios.

Q: What is the effect of the damping method? A: The damping method reduces 2036 HDD by 24 (1%) and increases 2036 CDD by 2 (2%).[32](#page-18-5)

AI summary The damping method reduces heating degree days (HDD) by 24 (1%) and increases cooling degree days (CDD) by 2 (2%) in 2036.

SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE - 2023– Present Vice President, Grid Strategies, LLC . Provides research, technical assistance, and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning, economics, and regulation. Reviews electric util...

AI summary The individual has extensive experience in utility planning, regulation, and energy policy, spanning roles in research, regulatory policy, and advocacy. They have provided expert testimony, designed energy efficiency and electrification programs, and worked on renewable energy and market data initiatives.

PUBLICATIONS "Urban Areas," with Judith Clarkson and Wolfgang Roeseler, in Gerald R. North, Jurgen Schmandt and Judith Clarkson, The Impact of Global Warming on Texas: A Report of the Task Force on Climate Change in Texas , 1995. "Quality...

AI summary The text lists several publications by an individual, including works on urban areas, quality of life in Houston, utility energy efficiency programs, and monopsony behavior in power generation markets. These publications focus on climate change, energy efficiency, and market dynamics.

- "Smoke in the Water: Air Pollution Hidden in the Water Vapor from Cooling Towers Agencies Fail to Enforce Against Polluters," Galveston Houston Association for Smog Prevention, February 2004. - "Reducing Air Pollution from Houston-Area S...

AI summary The text lists various reports and publications related to environmental and energy issues, focusing on air pollution, clean energy initiatives, and energy efficiency programs in the United States, particularly in Texas and the Southeastern region. These reports highlight concerns about enforcement of environmental regulations, the impact of pollution on public health, and efforts to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency.

SELECTED PRESENTATIONS "Clean Energy Solutions for Western North Carolina," presentation to Progress Energy Carolinas WNC Community Energy Advisory Council, February 7, 2008. "Energy Efficiency: Regulating Cost-Effectiveness," Florida Publ...

AI summary The text lists several presentations related to energy efficiency and renewable energy, including topics on clean energy solutions and regulating cost-effectiveness. These presentations were made to various energy regulatory bodies and advisory councils.

EXPERT TESTIMONY - 2008 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2007-358-E, surrebuttal testimony on behalf of Environmental Defense, the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and the Southern Environmental L...

AI summary The text outlines expert testimony from various regulatory proceedings across multiple states, focusing on energy efficiency cost recovery mechanisms, integrated resource plans, and the adequacy of energy efficiency considerations by utility companies. Key entities involved include environmental organizations and the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

Synapse Energy Economics Inc. (Synapse) presents this evidence to document its review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report [1](#page-2-0) (Report) of Nova Scotia Power, Inc. (NS Power), and to offer recommendations for improvements. Synapse ha...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics Inc. reviews NS Power's 2026 Load Forecast Report, noting higher net system requirements and peak levels compared to 2025. Key drivers include increased EV load, electric heating, and new customer growth. Changes in heating and cooling efficiency models, along with fewer heat pump installations, also influence the forecast. The peak model now includes a 24-hour lagged temperature variable.

The historical trend for firm peak demand shows a general increase, as shown in Figure 2 below. We plotted the actual rather than the weather-normalized historical peaks to show the year-to- year variations. The 2026 firm peak demand incre...

AI summary The historical trend for firm peak demand shows a general increase, with a 244 MW (10.4%) rise by 2026, primarily driven by increased electrification. The modeled values from the SAE modeling and subsequent adjustments are detailed in Figures 65 of the Report.

Residential NS Power's residential heat pump forecast distinguishes three categories of heat pump households: (1) all-electric (AE) households, with heat pumps and no backup heating; (2) non-all-electric standard (NAE Standard) households,...

AI summary NS Power's residential heat pump forecast categorizes households into three groups and assumes a 50% participation rate for hybrid programs. However, the analysis suggests that this participation rate should be phased in over several years and extended to existing systems, citing EfficiencyOne's experience with lower participation rates in similar programs.

Commercial NS Power notes that, in response to the continued lack of provincial discussion of a commercial hybrid heating program, it delayed the modeled implementation date to 2028.[6](#page-15-1) We caution that it may be premature to as...

AI summary NS Power delayed the implementation of a commercial hybrid heating program until 2028 due to the lack of provincial discussion. The forecast includes a significant peak reduction but lacks clarity on participation rates and assumptions. A reassessment is recommended to ensure the trajectory is reasonable and supported by market conditions.

Recommendations For hybrid heating, NS Power's assumed participation among new installations – 50 percent of NAE systems beginning in 2028 – does not ramp gradually. NS Power should apply a more moderate ramp rate. Meanwhile, NS Power shou...

AI summary The recommendations suggest that NS Power should adjust its assumptions regarding hybrid heating participation rates, expand eligibility for existing systems with lower participation rates, and reassess the commercial hybrid-heating trajectory. NS Power is also advised to clarify and update efficiency metrics and calibration methods for heat pumps.

Peak charging loads NS Power states that it is not explicitly modeling managed charging for light-duty at-home charging.[15](#page-17-1) In doing so, NS Power is not accounting for any projected changes in managed charging penetration over...

AI summary NS Power is not explicitly modeling managed charging for light-duty at-home charging and uses a coarse assumption that BEV and PHEV peak impacts are the same, which is problematic. It is recommended that PHEV charging be removed from DCFC and workplace L2 peak modeling.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS - 1. NS Power should continue to monitor the impact of trade policy and consider explicitly incorporating tariff impacts into its future forecast if they are expected to have a material impact on load growth. - 2. Concer...

AI summary The recommendations focus on improving NS Power's forecasting methods for load growth, hybrid heating participation, heat pump efficiency metrics, EV charging, solar installations, and DSM savings accumulation. Emphasis is placed on using more accurate modeling approaches, incorporating updated data, and clarifying assumptions to enhance forecast reliability.

DATE FILED: September 8, 2026 Page 12 of 23 M12861, N-8, John D. Wilson, Direct Evidence of John Wilson on behalf of the Consumer Advocate, NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report, July 21, 2026, page 3, lines 12-17. appropriate for this additi...

AI summary The document discusses discrepancies in the 2026 Load Forecast Report regarding residential heating intensity values for customers with and without heat pumps. The Consumer Advocate's evidence is reviewed, and clarification is requested for the interpretation of these values in the context of heat pump saturation levels.

M12861 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD IN THE MATTER OF: The Public Utilities Act IN THE MATTER OF: NOVA SCOTIA POWER INCORPORATED’S 2026 Load Forecast Report EfficiencyOne TAKE NOTICE that EfficiencyOne hereby intervenes in this proceeding in ac...

AI summary EfficiencyOne intervenes in the proceeding under the Public Utilities Act regarding Nova Scotia Power's 2026 Load Forecast Report. As the electricity efficiency franchise holder, EfficiencyOne asserts a direct interest in the issues and intends to fully participate in the hearing.

Request IR-3: - System Peak Lagged Temperature Variables - a. Please provide the results of the "iterative testing" that determined the weightings to apply to the 12-hour and 24-hour variables. - b. Please provide the results of the sensit...

AI summary Request IR-3 seeks detailed information on NS Power's modeling of temperature variables in relation to system peak demand, including iterative testing results, sensitivity analysis, and explanations for the impact of cold duration versus minimum temperature on peak demand, as well as alternative modeling approaches.

Request IR-6: - New Technologies (Section 4.5.6, p. 51) - a. Refer to Section 4.5.6 of the 2026 Load Forecast Report, which states that "[t]he 2026 Load Forecast does not assume a significant amount of distributed solar/battery storage com...

AI summary Request IR-6 seeks clarification on NS Power's assumptions regarding distributed solar-plus-storage, storage-only, and V2G technologies in the 2026 Load Forecast Report. It specifically asks about the inclusion of these resources in the forecast, projected battery cost declines, peak impact sensitivity analyses, and quantification of winter peak reduction from these technologies.

1 c. Please explain how the "overall heating intensity" values in Figure 22 were 2 developed and how they relate to the HP Heat values shown in Figure 46. 3 d. Please provide any AMI, billing, or other empirical validation NS Power has 4 c...

AI summary The text requests an explanation of how 'overall heating intensity' values in Figure 22 were developed and their relationship to HP Heat values in Figure 46. It also asks for empirical validation of heat pump impacts and detailed data on residential heating technologies, customer numbers, and assumptions used in estimating heat pump energy and peak impacts.

Request IR-8: Residential Hybrid Heating (Section 4.5.2, p. 37-42) - a. Refer to the following statements in the 2026 Load Forecast Report: "The 2026 residential SAE regression model has been updated to include peak and energy reductions r...

AI summary Request IR-8 focuses on residential hybrid heating analysis by NS Power, including data on load shapes, participation rates, modeling approaches, and documentation related to the 2026 Load Forecast Report. It asks for detailed explanations and supporting evidence regarding the impact of hybrid heating programs on energy and peak demand.

Request IR-9: - Commercial Hybrid Heating (Section 4.5.2, p. 42) - a. Refer to Figure 26 and the following statement on page 42: "As with previous load forecasts, the commercial energy values predicted from the commercial SAE model is high...

AI summary Request IR-9 seeks clarification on the discrepancy between the commercial SAE model and E3 hybrid scenario model for commercial hybrid heating, and asks for detailed explanations, supporting documentation, and assumptions used in the 2026 Load Forecast. It also inquires about the validation of E3's assumptions by NS Power.

Request IR-10: - Residential Water Heaters (WH) (Section 4.5.3, p. 43-44) - a. Refer to the following statement on page 43 of the NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report: "This equates to an overall residential saturation of approximately 1.4 p...

AI summary The document requests NS Power to explain the assumptions and evidence used in forecasting the growth rate of heat pump water heater adoption, as well as to clarify whether energy efficiency improvements for these devices are assumed over time, including any Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) assumptions.

Request IR-13: - Solar Impact to Peak (Section 10.5, p. 95-96) - a. Please refer to Figure 70. Explain how the average coincidence factors were developed and provide all underlying data and calculations. - b. Please explain why updated coi...

AI summary Request IR-13 addresses the development and availability of solar coincidence factors, asking for explanations on their calculation, the absence of updated data for 2025, and NS Power's plans for updating the factors in the 2027 forecast.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REQUESTS TO NS POWER To: Nova Scotia Power Inc. Jessie Wallace Manager, Regulatory Strategy & Innovation Email: [email protected] From: EfficiencyOne c/o McInnes Cooper Responses Due: July 7, 2026 Copie...

AI summary EfficiencyOne requests NS Power to clarify assumptions and methodologies in the 2026 Load Forecast Report, including hybrid heating participation rates, energy/peak demand reduction estimates, and whether hybrid heating qualifies as demand-side management under the Public Utilities Act. Questions focus on data consistency, modeling approaches, and legal classification.

1 (d) If hybrid heating does not achieve the forecast reductions, what is the quantified impact 2 on the Net System Requirement and system peak? Please provide the forecast with and 3 without hybrid heating for each year from 2028 to 2036....

AI summary The text requests an explanation of the average annual energy reduction from the modelled hybrid heating program and its impact on the Net System Requirement and system peak if the program does not achieve forecasted reductions. It also asks for comparisons of the 3,034 kWh reduction against residential consumption and heating usage, and whether NS Power agrees with the calculated values in Table 1.

1 Request IR-09: 2 Reference: NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report, page 42, lines 3 – 17 3 4 (a) What is the capacity reduction associated with commercial hybrid heating? 5 (b) If no capacity reduction has been modelled, does this imply the...

AI summary The text includes requests for information regarding the capacity reduction associated with commercial hybrid heating programs, the assumptions and methodologies used in the NS Power 2026 Load Forecast Report, and the potential risks and validation of post-model adjustments related to hybrid heating impacts.

Request IR-4: Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Hybrid Heating, page 40 of 105 and respond to the following: a) Please provide a detailed description of the customer configuration assumed to qualify as a hybrid-heati...

AI summary Request IR-4 asks for a detailed description of hybrid heating customer configurations, the basis for a 50% participation rate and 27,000 enrolled customers by 2036, and the criteria for NS Power-declared CPP events. It references specific sections and lines in M12861, Exhibit N-1, and the Report.

Request IR-5: Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Commercial Hybrid Heating, page 42 of 105, Figure 26: Energy adjustments applied to commercial forecast for the hybrid heating scenario, and respond to the following: a...

AI summary The text requests the calculation and supporting assumptions for energy adjustments in the commercial hybrid heating scenario for specific years, referencing a particular exhibit and section of a report.

20 Request IR-2: 21 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Hybrid Heating, Section 4.5.4, Electric 22 Vehicles, and respond to the following: 23 24 a) The forecast models hybrid heating at 50% participation (approximately...

AI summary The request asks whether the existing transmission and distribution system can accommodate higher penetration of hybrid heat pumps and managed EV charging, and whether such flexible loads would require less infrastructure reinforcement compared to unmanaged loads, citing E3 findings on peak reduction potential.

24 Request IR-6: 25 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Figure 31, and respond to the following: 26 27 a) Figure 31 assigns 0 MW of peak reduction to solar across all years, on the basis that the 28 system peak occurs after sunset. W...

AI summary The request questions the assumption in Figure 31 that solar contributes 0 MW of peak reduction, based on the system peak occurring after sunset. It asks if this assumption was carried forward from the 2025 Load Forecast and whether NS Power plans to revisit it with updated AMI and production data, including solar paired with storage.

34 Request IR-7: 35 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Sections 4.5.1, 4.5.5 and 4.5.6, and respond to the 36 following: 37 The forecast assumes no change to the incentive landscape and, for heat pumps, reduces projected 38 installa...

AI summary The text requests a response to the heat pump forecast assumptions, specifically whether federal incentives like the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit (ITC) were considered for commercial heat pumps and residential retrofit programs. It also inquires about the evaluation of commercial and industrial battery storage in light of federal incentives.