Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M03669

Matter: E-ENSC-R-10 - Efficiency Nova Scotia Corporation - Electricity Demand Side Management Plan for 2012A request by Efficiency Nova Scotia for approval of a $43.7 million Demand Side Management plan for the 2012 operating year. (Also see Matter Nos. M04538 and M04539)

5 passages 2 documents

Forecasting Methodology across all matters →

E-6ENSC (EAC) IR-1 to IR-43 (Revised April 6, 2011) 3/29/2011 4 passages

Econometric Framework p. p. 37

assume that there are no contemporaneous shocks to each contiguous block batch group after controlling for month/year fixed effects, household fixed effects, and average billing cycle temperature. 15 The first regression estimates a treatm...

AI summary The text outlines econometric models analyzing treatment effects on energy efficiency programs, controlling for factors like political affiliation, education, renewable energy adoption, and household characteristics. It discusses regression approaches testing heterogeneous responses and interactions between variables, emphasizing methodological rigor in evaluating program impacts.

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3.2 Method 2: Linear Regression (LR) Models p. p. 164

ctor of treatment variables, $W_t$ as a vector of weather characteristics in month t, and $Z_k$ as a vector of housing/household characteristics for household k, we have the expanded linear model. $$ADU_{kt} = \alpha_{0} + \alpha_{1} Treat...

AI summary This section presents a linear regression model used to analyze the impact of treatment variables on outcomes, incorporating factors such as weather, housing characteristics, and time-related variables. The model includes interaction terms to assess the average daily treatment effect.

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3.3 Method 3: Differenced Linear Fixed Effects (DLFE) Model p. p. 164

3.3 Method 3: Differenced Linear Fixed Effects (DLFE) Model The linear regression (LR) models of section 3.2 will generate biased estimates of treatment response if the household-specific error $\varepsilon_{kt}$ is correlated with the tre...

AI summary This section introduces the Differenced Linear Fixed Effects (DLFE) model as a method to address potential biases in linear regression estimates caused by correlations between household-specific errors and treatment assignments. The model uses fixed effects parameters to capture unchanging household-specific effects, ensuring more accurate estimates of treatment response.

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Introduction p. p. 253

comments on the Draft IPR Update if warranted. Response The final comments of Board staff and consultants were sent to stakeholders on November 24. 3 Stakeholder NPB Topic Action Plan Suggestions/Comments Add second bullet on page 34 under...

AI summary The document discusses stakeholder suggestions for updating the Action Plan in the Draft IPR Update, including monitoring DSM energy savings, providing annual load forecasts, and tracking natural gas prices. NSPI agrees with these suggestions and outlines existing reporting mechanisms.

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IR-1 to IR-31 issued by Mel Whalen, Multeese Consulting Inc. (Board Counsel Consultant)06607 3/17/2011 1 passage

Request IR-5 With respect to Figure 5.1, a) If the annual avoided energy and avoided capacity costs used in the development of the TRC's and PAC's are different from those used to assess the 2011 DSM Plan, Please provide them. Please provide the date of the most recent update. Please confirm that the avoided costs currently being used were derived using the same methodology as was used to develop the avoided costs for the 2011 DSM programs. If not, please provide the new derivation. b) Please confirm that avoided costs are being applied in the same manner as in 2011. c) Please provide the derivation of the TRC and PAC results for two of the measures in the Efficient Products program that have different life expectancies. Request IR-6 With respect to Figure 5.1, Note e, please provide the derivation of the "historic savings" of 10 Gwh associated with the adoption of Codes and Standards. Request IR-7 With respect to page 15, line 17, please provide the basis for concluding that the industrial projects "were not included in the 2009 IRP Update" and reconcile it to the statement in Note 13 that "All DSM is assumed to be included in the projection used in the 2009 IRP". Request IR-8 With respect to page 15, lines 19 - 23, a) Please provide the "preliminary investigation" provided to ENSC by a third-party specialist. b) Please provide the qualifications of the third-party specialist to complete this work. Request IR-9 With respect to page 16, line 25, please provide the basis on which ENSC concludes that

Request IR-5 With respect to Figure 5.1, a) If the annual avoided energy and avoided capacity costs used in the development of the TRC's and PAC's are different from those used to assess the 2011 DSM Plan, Please provide them. Please provi...

AI summary The document contains regulatory requests (IR-5 to IR-10) seeking clarifications on avoided costs methodology, historical savings derivation, IRP inclusion of industrial projects, third-party investigations, and load forecast assumptions. Key topics include demand-side management (DSM), integrated resource planning (IRP), forecasting methodologies, and evidence requirements.

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