Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M08059

2. MODELING PLAN AND INPUT ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................... 8 2.1. Modeling Methodology ..................................................................................................... 8 Plexos.....

AI summary The document outlines a modeling plan and input assumptions, detailing methodology using Plexos, post-processing steps, scenarios, sensitivities, and assumptions related to load, fuel prices, energy sources, transmission constraints, and emission limits.

to ref case build until mid‐ 1CTavail Ref CT Availability in Plexos Ref Ref Ref No 2030s. Minimal 1Combo Ref Changed Costs and CT Avail Ref Ref Ref No NPVRR change. Other Relax steam and transmission constraints in Plexos – various scenari...

AI summary The document outlines modeling scenarios in Plexos for NSPI's thermal generation utilization, including relaxed steam and transmission constraints. Input assumptions were finalized in 2017 memos, with appendices provided. The case references NPVRR changes and exploratory model runs.

Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 27 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath1 High DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 28 Change Case Ref/RetirePath2 Ref Ref Ref Yes Yes 29 Change Case Med DSM/RetirePath2 Med DSM Ref Ref Yes Yes 30 Change Case High DSM/RetirePath2 High DSM...

AI summary The document outlines scenarios for demand-side management (DSM) and retirement pathways, including load forecasts, capital cost assumptions, and wind capacity contributions. It references modeling parameters for sensitivity cases, such as higher load scenarios from increased electrification and EV adoption, and alternative wind capacity targets.

e not “selecting” any particular plan. The aim of the exercise is to examine how costs vary under different resource formulations. We will include the full 2018-2042 period data in our report. • The SBA notes its concern with short-term pe...

AI summary The analysis focuses on long-term economics of thermal fleet retention, emphasizing planning study objectives over short-term rate effects. The SBA raises concerns about short-term period effects, while Port Hawkesbury Paper suggests additional gas price scenarios. Retirement path bookends are used for economic assessment, not policy considerations. Load scenarios have been reduced, with the reference forecast incorporating electrification trends.

3 18 388 2,245 763 34 1,870 93 857 1,776 10,934 9,150 CAGR '18-'27 1.1% 0.5% -0.2% -0.7% 0.0% -0.7% CAGR '18-'42 1.1% 0.5% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% -0.7% . Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Modeling Plan and Key Input Assumptions 5 Appendix 5.6 REDAC...

AI summary The text includes a table with growth rate data (CAGR) for periods 2018–2027 and 2018–2042, followed by a reference to a redacted appendix and a modeling plan by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. The data and plan relate to input assumptions for a regulatory proceeding.

MW RICE Fixed and Variable O&M Sustaining capital costs pick up NSPI 2017 Varies 0%/year Costs related cost increases Based on Confidential Landsvirkjun Power/Verkís Report, Wreck Cove Pumped Stor. NSPI 2017 0%/year Dec. 2012. Table 1, pag...

AI summary The document outlines cost analyses for fossil fuel generation, including natural gas, coal, and heavy oil prices, with data from NSPI and Synapse Energy Economics. It references a 25-year capacity expansion model (2018-2042) and specific years for production cost runs.

NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW APPENDIX C Maritimes The Maritimes Assessment Area is a winter-peaking NPCC subregion that contains two Balancing Authorities. It is comprised of the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia,...

AI summary The Maritimes Assessment Area, a winter-peaking subregion of the NPCC, includes New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and northern Maine. It uses a 50/50 coincident load forecast method with a 20% reference margin. Wind resource planning considers mandated capacity factors, while solar is excluded. A potential tie line to Newfoundland could impact the region's footprint.

5 Appendix – Synapse Comments After April 2017 Technical Conference Introduction These comments are provided in response to the technical conference held at NSPI on April 13, 2017. They address a number of issues concerning the future plan...

AI summary NSPI plans to operate all thermal steam units except Lingan 2 through 2025/26, expecting continued operation through 2030. This contrasts with the 2014 IRP Action Plan, as Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) will remain operational past 2025 due to 2016 load forecasts requiring resource adequacy. Sustaining capital expenditures for TUC1 are only planned through 2024, raising concerns about future costs.

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 13 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, with Synapse recommending a review of peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The report highlights discrepancies between NSPI's method and energy projections. A suggested resolution emphasizes analyzing alternatives to coal plant retention, prioritizing least-cost options for reliable service.

. As a general observation, the Industrial Group recommends one base set run with the current forecast of load and capital and then sensitivity runs with a high and a low scenario. ATL and BTL Loads The structure of the “Below-the-Line” (B...

AI summary The Industrial Group recommends analyzing load scenarios with and without Below-the-Line (BTL) loads, noting that serving BTL may be cheaper than serving Above-the-Line (ATL) due to NSPI's high-cost generation portfolio. Synapse highlights that demand response could reduce peak load needs but warns that increased interruptions from a smaller thermal fleet may push customers toward firm load.

and Analysis The SBA does not fully understand the methodology that this study is following well enough to endorse that the results will be informative. The SBA has identified the following concerns: 1. It is unclear whether this is going...

AI summary The SBA raises seven methodological concerns about a study, including uncertainty around analysis type (probabilistic vs. scenario), treatment of carrying costs, thermal generation modeling, resource adequacy determination, Behind the Meter Resources, and Renewables to Retail impacts. The SBA also questions assumptions linking high carbon costs to high fuel prices.

respect to Load, the base case is a current forecast and energy efficiency, while the next two cases are increased energy efficiency and highest energy efficiency, while there is no case to deal with (friis doreen - php comments on terms o...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting scenarios with varying energy efficiency levels (base case, increased efficiency, highest efficiency) and suggests a technical session for Synapse to explain assumptions. PHP requests clarity on Synapse's rationale for forecasting inputs, emphasizing stakeholder understanding of future NSPI generation requirements.

portunity to share schedules and work towards a mutually agreeable schedule that allows NS Power to provide Synapse with what it needs on a reasonable timeline that permits it to manage accordingly. NS Power believes that at a minimum, the...

AI summary NS Power requests a three-month extension to the timeline for Synapse's work, citing the need for stakeholder engagement and adequate modelling. It emphasizes the need for clear technical objectives in the TOR, particularly regarding cost-effectiveness criteria and definitions of terms like 'low,' 'medium,' and 'high' in Synapse's matrix.

ST Plexos module to assess customer cost and rate impact? Assumptions NS Power requests that clarity be provided for the following items relating to the assumptions to be used for the modelling:  How will Synapse distinguish critical inpu...

AI summary NS Power seeks clarity on assumptions for ST Plexos modelling, including critical vs. non-critical inputs, demand-side scenarios, storage technologies, capital sustaining assumptions, natural gas pricing, transmission configurations, carbon pricing rationale, and wind capacity value adjustments.

higher than those associated with lower peak load reduction plans, because no adjustment was made in sustaining capital contribution to allow for retirement of surplus capacity. NS Power notes that the surplus capacities shown in the Figur...

AI summary NS Power argues surplus capacity may no longer exist due to corrected DSM assumptions in the 2016 Load Forecast Report and revised efficiency program forecasts. They dispute Synapse's claim of flat historical peak loads, citing a 1% annual increase in firm peak load since 2016.

forecasted PHP load is based on historical requirements of the mill and would not be included in any correlating demand reduction associated with this DSM amount. iv) NS Power notes there is an inconsistency with the cumulative peak DSM to...

AI summary NSP highlights inconsistencies in DSM plan totals, advocates for load forecasts considering electrification, and provides updated fuel price data. It emphasizes the need for accurate resource cost assumptions and updated information for modeling.