N-1Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045
3 passages
5.1 Approach to Estimating Economic Potential ................................................................................ 39 5.2 Energy Efficiency Economic Potential Results by Sector .....................................................
AI summary The document outlines methodologies for estimating energy efficiency economic potential, market share calculations, behavioral measures, investment and incentive strategies, model calibration, and scenario-based reference forecasts. It details approaches to equilibrium market share, backcasting, and scenario configurations to evaluate energy efficiency programs and their impacts.
......87 Level 2: Customer Class ..........................................................................................................87 Level 3: Customer Segment ..........................................................................
AI summary The document outlines a study on Nova Scotia's energy efficiency and demand response potential from 2021-2045, covering customer segmentation, demand response projections, battery and EV adoption, and cost-effectiveness assumptions.
used to develop the reference case forecasts. Figure 2. Data Collection Granularity for Base Year / Reference Forecast Input Parameters Source
AI summary The text discusses the use of input parameters sourced from various data collection methods to develop reference case forecasts, as illustrated in Figure 2. It highlights the importance of data granularity in the base year and reference forecast.
N-2Hydro Asset Study - REDACTED
5 passages
ĞůŝǀĞƌŽƌƐĞůůƐƚŽĐŬƉŝůĞĚƐĂůǀĂŐĞŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů͘ x /ŶĨŝůůĨŽƵŶĚĂƚŝŽŶƐƵďƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĞdžĐĂǀĂƚŝŽŶǁŝƚŚĐŽŵƉĂĐƚĞĚĐůĞĂŶŐƌĂŶƵůĂƌŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƚŽƚŚĞĞdžŝƐƚŝŶŐƚĂŝůƌĂĐĞ ĐŽĨĨĞƌĚĂŵƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ͘dŚĞĐŽĨĨĞƌĚĂŵĐĂŶƌĞŵĂŝŶŽŶĐĞŐƌĂĚĞĚƚŽŵĂƚĐŚƐŝƚĞ͘WƌŽǀŝĚĞĞƌ...
AI summary The text discusses issues related to fuel cost adjustment mechanisms, the impact of delayed base rates on incentives, and the importance of accurate forecasting in energy management. It highlights challenges in aligning rates with actual costs and the need for effective regulatory oversight.
/E' ^d/Dd ^hDDZz&KZ^^ dZ d/Z D EdK>/'d/KE^;ZKͿ^dhz;LJ^LJƐƚĞŵͿ x WůĂĐĞ ƚŽƉƐŽŝů͕ ƐŽĚƐͬŚLJĚƌŽͲƐĞĞĚ͕ ŵŝƐĐĞůůĂŶĞŽƵƐ ƌƵĚŝŵĞŶƚĂƌLJ ůĂŶĚƐĐĂƉŝŶŐ ĂƐ ŵĂLJ ďĞ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚ ĨŽƌ ƉƵďůŝĐ ƐĂĨĞƚLJĂŶĚƚŽĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚĞƐƵƌĨĂĐĞĚƌĂŝŶĂŐĞ...
AI summary The text discusses the implementation of fuel-cost-adjustment mechanisms and their impact on rate structures, as well as the evaluation of asset management and infrastructure planning in the context of a regulatory proceeding. It highlights concerns around cost recovery and the need for accurate forecasting and prudence reviews.
ĂŶĚƐƚŽĐŬƉŝůĞĚƚƵƌďŽŐĞŶĞƌĂƚŽƌŵĂŝŶĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ͕ƐŽƌƚĂŶĚƐƚŽĐŬƉŝůĞĂƚ ƐŝƚĞĨŽƌƐĂůǀĂŐĞĂŶĚĚŝƐƉŽƐĂů͘ x ĞŵŽůŝƐŚĞdžƚĞƌŝŽƌǁĂůůƐĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ͕ƐƚŽĐŬƉŝůĞĚĞŵŽůŝƚŝŽŶŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůĨŽƌĚŝƐƉŽƐĂů͘ x ZĞŵŽǀĞĂŶĚĚĞŵŽůŝƐŚŵĂŝŶĨůŽŽƌƌĞŝŶ...
AI summary The text discusses the need for addressing issues related to fuel cost adjustments, including the impact of base rates lagging behind actual costs, the importance of accurate forecasting, and the role of regulatory oversight in managing these adjustments. It emphasizes the need for proper evaluation and management of fuel costs and their impact on customers and the utility.
ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶƐĞƋƵŝƉŵĞŶƚĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽƚƌĂŶƐŵŝƐƐŝŽŶǁŝůůďĞƌĞŵŽǀĞĚďLJ ŽƚŚĞƌƐ͘ /ƚ ŝƐ ĂůƐŽ ĂƐƐƵŵĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞƌĞ ǁŝůů ďĞ ŶŽ ŽƵƚƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐ ĂƐďĞƐƚŽƐ ĂďĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ Žƌ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŚĂnjĂƌĚŽƵƐŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐŽƌĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůŝƐƐƵĞƐĂƚƚŚŝƐƐŝƚĞ...
AI summary The text discusses the need for regulatory adjustments in energy pricing mechanisms, emphasizing the importance of aligning base rates with actual costs to avoid perverse incentives. It highlights the role of fuel-cost-adjustment mechanisms and the need for accurate forecasting and evaluation of energy usage patterns.
ůŝƚŝŽŶŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůĨŽƌĚŝƐƉŽƐĂů͘ x ZĞŵŽǀĞ ĞdžƉŽƐĞĚ ŝŶƚĞƌŝŽƌ ƐƚĞĞů ƉĂƌƚƐ͖ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ƐƚĞĞů ƉĞŶƐƚŽĐŬƐ ĂŶĚ ďƵƚƚĞƌĨůLJ ǀĂůǀĞƐ͕ ƚŚƌŽĂƚ ƌŝŶŐ͕ ƐƚĞĞů ĚƌĂĨƚͲƚƵďĞƉĂƌƚƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƌĞůĂƚĞĚŵŝƐĐĞůůĂŶĞŽƵƐŝƚĞŵƐ͘^ƚŽĐŬƉŝůĞĂŶĚƐŽƌƚĨŽƌƐĂůǀĂŐĞ...
AI summary The text discusses various aspects of energy regulation and management in Nova Scotia, including asset retirement obligations, program evaluations, and stakeholder engagement. It outlines the need for effective energy efficiency programs, cost recovery mechanisms, and regulatory oversight. Key topics include energy efficiency, stakeholder participation, and the importance of accurate forecasting.
N-3NS Power 2019 Ten Year System Outlook dated July 2, 2019
3 passages
& Distribution Advanced Stage Interconnection Queue as of June 4th, 16 2019 ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 17...
AI summary The text lists figures related to energy generation projects, greenhouse gas emissions compliance, load and capacity analysis, and interconnection queues. Key themes include emissions caps, resource planning, and transmission infrastructure.
lined several pre-IRP analyses. To date, NS Power has 5 held two sessions with interested parties and is on track to complete its pre-IRP 6 deliverables for July 31, 2019. 2 M08059, UARB Decision Letter, Generation Utilization and Optimiza...
AI summary NS Power is progressing with pre-Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analyses, having held stakeholder sessions and aiming to complete deliverables by July 31, 2019. The 2019 load forecast, based on the Statistically Adjusted End-Use (SAE) model and econometric industrial forecasts, informs energy planning and Net System Requirement (NSR) projections.
ugh an 13 estimated monthly peak demand regression model. The peak contribution from large 14 customer classes is calculated from historical coincident load factors for each of the rate DATE FILED: July 2, 2019 Page 8 of 67 2019 Ten-Year S...
AI summary The document discusses a regression model estimating monthly peak demand, accounting for DSM savings, leading to a flat system peak over the forecast period. Historical and projected net system peak data are presented in Figure 2.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
15 passages
built a bottom-up PATHWAYS model of the Nova Scotia economy using the LEAP tool (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) 2 . This modeling tool implements the framework described above and is customized to the desired region. In pa...
AI summary E3 developed a PATHWAYS model for Nova Scotia using the LEAP tool to project energy and emissions trends through 2050, focusing on non-electricity sectors. The model uses carbon intensity ranges rather than detailed electricity sector modeling, with a recommendation for deeper analysis within the IRP or future studies.
17 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 23 of 64 Two additional “bookend” scenarios –one focusing on more extreme reliance on biofuels and the other focusing on more ext...
AI summary The document outlines two extreme scenarios in Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): heavy reliance on biofuels and extreme electrification. Key assumptions from these scenarios are detailed in Table 1, developed by E3 using public data, distinct from NSPI's assumptions. Figure 10 illustrates historical GHG emissions and 2050 targets.
19 P a g e © 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 25 of 64 2.5 Model Inputs As described above, PATHWAYS is a stock rollover modeling framework which projects energy demands and t...
AI summary The PATHWAYS model, developed by E3 for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), uses data from NEMS and AEO 2019 to project energy demands and GHG emissions. It benchmarks 2016 emissions against Canadian government data and assumes flat population and VMT growth from 2015-2050, despite NEB forecasts of slight population decline.
2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 IRP Revenue Requirement (Partial) ($M) 858 914 977 968 982 1,045 1,050 1,079 1,094 1,147 1,127 1,107 1,109 1,146 1,191 1,233 1,238 1,303 1,350 1,394 1,489 1,558 1,548 1,589 1,615 1,651 2014...
AI summary The text presents financial data on revenue requirements and FCR recovery over several years, showing projections and figures for different years, which are likely part of a regulatory proceeding related to utility planning and financial forecasting.
• sectoral (residential, commercial and industrial) electricity consumption changes; • shifts in the economy towards services, which generally consume less energy; • the cost of alternative energy sources, including the influence of carbon...
AI summary The text discusses factors influencing electricity demand forecasting, including consumption changes, economic shifts, energy costs, and demand-side management. It highlights the risks of overestimating or underestimating future electricity requirements, citing examples from other jurisdictions such as the Muskrat Falls Project and Site C Project.
ting in additional and unnecessary costs to ratepayers, curtailment of investments in lower-cost demand-side management in order to lower revenue requirements, and export of surplus energy at prices below the costs of production. Utilities...
AI summary The text discusses the risks of overforecasting by utilities, emphasizing that it can lead to unnecessary costs, reduced investments in demand-side management, and energy exports at below-cost prices. It also highlights the need for accurate forecasting in Integrated Resource Plans and references past concerns about NSPI's forecasting accuracy.
2 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 51 of 125 (NSR) and Net System Peak (NSP), respectively. Data were located for the period 2008 through 2019, inclusive, and obtained from the NSPI 10-Year System Outlook reports filed an...
AI summary The document presents historical data on Nova Scotia Power's Net System Requirements (NSR) and Net System Peak (NSP) from 2008 to 2019, showing a decline in both metrics over the past decade. It notes that pre-recession forecasts overestimated requirements, while post-recession forecasts have been more accurate.
4 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 53 of 125 These observations tempt one to conclude that NSPI forecast accuracy was the victim of an unlikely and extreme recessionary event, and any necessary adjustments to forecasting...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding NSPI's load forecasting accuracy, noting that while adjustments were made following an extreme recessionary event, the limited data (only 12 years of forecasts) makes it difficult to assess long-term forecasting patterns. No long-term underestimates have been observed, but the full picture remains unclear.
The pattern of BC Hydro forecasting errors of Total Gross System Requirements3 over the period 1998-2009 is similar to the pattern of NSPI forecasting errors of both NSR and NSP over the period 2008-2019. In the BC Hydro case, one plausibl...
AI summary The document compares BC Hydro's forecasting errors over 1998-2009 with NSPI's errors over 2008-2019, noting that BC Hydro's overforecasting was significant and skewed, often by 20%-30%, leading to unnecessary large-scale investments. This highlights the importance of accurate forecasting methods.
ssary or higher cost than the alternative solutions whose costs decline in the interim. • Year 1 accuracy: In the first year following the forecast, 14 of the BC Hydro forecasts underestimated requirements while 14 overestimated requiremen...
AI summary The document examines the accuracy of BC Hydro's long-term forecasting of system requirements, noting that while year 1 forecasts showed a balance between under and overestimates, year 10 and 20 forecasts consistently overestimated requirements, suggesting systemic bias in forecasting practices.
ecasts produced underestimates in the 20-year forecast. BC Hydro’s 20-year forecasts have been P(100) forecasts with a 100% chance that the forecast would exceed actual requirements.
AI summary The document discusses forecast inaccuracies, noting that 20-year forecasts produced underestimates. BC Hydro's 20-year forecasts are described as P(100) forecasts, indicating a 100% chance of exceeding actual requirements.
generally exclude the potential for and impacts of economic recessions, presumably because of their stochastic nature. While the timing and depth of individual recessions are difficult to predict, the potential for one or more recessions w...
AI summary The text criticizes the Draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for not considering the potential impacts of economic recessions on load forecasting, which could lead to long-term overforecasting. It recommends that the Board request historical load forecasts from NSPI and extend the forecasting period to 20 years for better long-term resource planning.
d Power Authority F2020 to F2021 Revenue Requirements Application. Decision and Order G-246-20. (https://www.bcuc.com/Documents/Proceedings/2020/DOC_59355_2020-10-02-BCH-F2020-F2021-RRA-Decision.pdf) Richard Hendriks 9 Nova Scotia Power IR...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding the accuracy of Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) 10-year forecasts and the potential for long-term overforecasting, which could lead to unnecessary resource development at higher costs. It also mentions the possibility of a formal review of NSPI's forecasting accuracy by the Board.
enarios, NS Power agrees that if its Reference Plan or elements of Action Plan, and Roadmap will be vetted for actual its IRP Action Plan are no longer consistent with compliance with Provincial environmental law once the government enviro...
AI summary NS Power acknowledges the need to update its IRP Action Plan if it no longer aligns with provincial environmental policy. Richard Hendriks comments on load forecasting methodology, noting overestimations in Canadian forecasts and the lack of allowance for coal retirements or electrification. NS Power states that load forecasting is not currently within the scope of the IRP.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE -‘New population and GDP growth patterns as well as new industrial opportunities in a clean carbon economy may drive demand higher than forecast. This outcome would raise new questions on w...
AI summary The stakeholder comments highlight concerns regarding demand forecasting in the context of population and economic growth, and the potential underestimation of long-term energy requirements due to DSM forecasting methods. These issues raise questions about resource availability and the adequacy of DSM considerations in integrated resource planning.