Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M10473

Memorandum To: EfficiencyOne From: Guidehouse Date: February 16, 2022 Re: Forecasting DSM Plan Participation Jurisdictional Scan – Findings and Recommendations

AI summary This memorandum from Guidehouse to EfficiencyOne outlines findings and recommendations from a jurisdictional scan on forecasting DSM Plan participation. It provides insights into how different regions approach demand-side management planning and forecasting.

2.1.1 Forecast for 2020-2022 DSM Plan Period E1 has provided an updated three-year Plan period forecast in [Table 1](#page-11-1) to provide stakeholders and the NSUARB with additional insight on mid-term DSM Plan implementation.[7](#page-9...

AI summary E1 provides a three-year forecast for the 2020-2022 DSM Plan, projecting energy savings of 127.0 GWh in 2022 (90% of the target threshold) but not meeting the system-peak demand savings target. Expenditures remain within the approved $110 million investment level, though unforeseen circumstances could lead to falling short of energy savings goals.

ng Concepts & Methods , Second Edition, Liburn Georgia: The Fairmont Press, 1992; Gellings, Clark W. & John H. Chamberlin, Demand-Side Management Planning , Liburn, Georgia: The Fairmont Press, 1993. 4 There are other parts not shown, incl...

AI summary The document outlines the Policy, Planning, and Program cycle in Savings Verification, emphasizing how Policy guides Efficiency Nova Scotia's operations through regulatory and legislative frameworks. Planning involves creating program portfolios and projections, with each cycle step feeding information forward. The process includes evolving standards and interdependent steps within the Demand-Side Management (DSM) cycle.

E1 Responses to Consumer Advocate (CA) Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL Request IR-02: How will E1 accurately attribute DSM savings for low-income customers in each of its programs? Of particular interest are the prescriptive programs...

AI summary E1 explains its methodology for attributing DSM savings to low-income customers in prescriptive programs, relying on existing approaches and 2020 impact ratios when model outputs are insufficient. It plans to update the methodology with 2021 Census data.

DSM PROGRAMS FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING & LOW INCOME HOUSING PROVIDERS : The requirements of the Affordable Multiple Family Housing programs could be said to be very onerousrelating to allowable rental levels, and the commitment for essentiall...

AI summary The text discusses concerns about stringent rent increase restrictions in Nova Scotia's Affordable Multiple Family Housing programs during a period of high inflation, contrasting with the Nova Scotia Rental Cap program's flexibility. EfficiencyOne responds by affirming CPI-based rent increases and program requirements for affordability, including minimum unit thresholds.

E1 Responses to Municipal Electric Utilities (MEU) Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL customer accounts that participate in each measure, using the historical (in this case, 2020) correlation between tracked measure quantities and track...

AI summary E1 estimates participating customer accounts for NSUARB programs using 2020 historical data, allocating them to NS Power rate classes. MEUs are treated as a single NS Power rate class for RBIA purposes. E1 is open to discussing reasonable participation levels for future MEU rate class forecasting.

Current year System-Wide System growth (kW) : = ∑ System-Wide Peak Load x Historic Annual Growth Rate

AI summary The document presents a formula to calculate current year system-wide system growth in kilowatts, derived by multiplying the sum of system-wide peak load by the historic annual growth rate. This method reflects a forecasting approach based on historical data.

4.3 RECOMMENDATION TO USE NS POWER'S EV LOAD FORECAST - Synapse - Synapse is recommending that E1 use NS Power's electric vehicle (EV) load forecast to estimate program - participation for the EV charging control offer. [14](#page-9-1) - R...

AI summary Synapse recommends using NS Power's EV load forecast for EV charging control modeling. E1 agrees but clarifies that Guidehouse incorrectly cited the source, stating the 2021 NS Power Load Forecast was used. E1 emphasizes using the most recent data, including the 2022 Load Forecast, for future planning and program adjustments.

Request IR-37: - Appendix A, pages 78-79 of 149, Residential Behaviour Program Component: - a) Please explain how this program component is different than initiatives that will be undertaken by NS Power related to availability of AMI data...

AI summary Request IR-37 seeks clarification from E1 on how the Residential Behaviour Program differs from NS Power's initiatives (e.g., AMI data, Bill Alerts), ensures no overlap in energy savings reporting, and explains how Table 30's projected savings account for NS Power's programs.

1 Request IR-2: - 2 Please provide cost allocation tables, by rate class, for each year in a) E1's Preferred Plan; b) - 3 Alternate Scenario; c) Settlement Plan, and d) a Scenario where the Low Income funding is set - 4 at 12% of the inves...

AI summary Request IR-2 seeks cost allocation tables by rate class for four scenarios: E1's Preferred Plan, Alternate Scenario, Settlement Plan, and a Scenario with Low Income funding set at 12% of investment. The request aims to compare cost distributions across different planning approaches and funding levels.

e residential DR behavioral pathway's ability to achieve winter peak load reductions and the planned initial scale of this offer. [44,](#page-15-2)[45](#page-15-3) Synapse also noted concerns over the While there is uncertainty surrounding...

AI summary The document discusses E1's demand response (DR) program, including its phased implementation and annual evaluation to mitigate risks. E1 agrees with Synapse's use of the latest load forecast data for EV modeling but acknowledges concerns about DR's winter peak load reduction potential. References to exhibits and prior filings highlight procedural aspects of the regulatory proceeding.