Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M11221

1 2.0 LOAD FORECAST 2 3 The NS Power load forecast provides an outlook on the energy and peak demand requirements of 4 customers in the province. The load forecast forms the basis for fuel and power-purchase supply 5 planning, investment p...

AI summary NS Power's load forecast outlines energy and peak demand needs, using SAE models and econometric methods. Near-term growth is driven by customer additions and EV adoption, while RTR sales and DSM initiatives reduce long-term demand. The net system requirement is projected to increase by 0.7% annually.

2023 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals not weather 2 adjusted) 3 Year NSR (GWh) Growth (%) 2013 11,194 6.9 2014 11,037 -1.4 2015 11,099 0.6 2016 10,809 -2.6...

AI summary NS Power's 2023 10-Year System Outlook presents net system requirement (NSR) data from 2013-2033, showing fluctuating growth rates and forecasted values. It details peak demand forecasting methodology, incorporating weather-sensitive loads, end-use energy forecasts, and demand response (DR) adjustments using Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC).

39 2,198 2,395 2.3 2028 157 39 2,259 2,454 2.5 2029 157 38 2,325 2,520 2.7 2030 156 38 2,395 2,589 2.8 2031 156 38 2,468 2,662 2.8 2032 156 38 2,545 2,738 2.9 2033 156 37 2,627 2,819 3.0 10 Forecast value 11 12 As with any forecast, there...

AI summary The document presents a 10-year forecast for the electricity system, acknowledging uncertainties due to weather and energy variations. It outlines projected figures for the period 2023–2033, emphasizing the inherent unpredictability in long-term energy planning.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Referencing page 6 of 59 and Figure 6 on page 19 of 59, NS Power stated that the results of 4 the 2022 IRP evergreen scenario CE1-E1-R2 were selected as the basis for the 2023 10-year 5 System Outlook report. Updated re...

AI summary NS Power responds to a request regarding updates to its 2023 10-Year System Outlook, confirming no changes to the Evergreen IRP modeling since filing. Modifications include solar resource assessments and integration of the 2023 Load Forecast Report. The updated Action Plan outlines project timelines, with new resources in early stages and ACE Plan 2024 referencing future projects.

rthy to note that on February 3 and 4, 2023, Nova Scotia experienced a severe cold weather event, which resulted in an all-time high hourly peak load of 2455 MW. NS Power was able to meet that demand. The prior year 2022 10-Year SO Report...

AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia's experience with a severe cold weather event in February 2023, NS Power's ability to meet peak demand, updates to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) including the Evergreen IRP scenario CE1-E1-R2, the proposed Reliability Tie project, and the Board's acceptance of the 2023 10-Year System Outlook Report. It also references the 2024 ACE Plan and 'The Path to 2030' in Matter M11458.