Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M11764

1 2.0 LOAD FORECAST 2 3 The NS Power load forecast provides an outlook on the energy and peak demand requirements of 4 customers in the province. The load forecast forms the basis for fuel and power-purchase supply 5 planning, investment p...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 load forecast projects a 0.2% annual increase in net system requirements, driven by near-term customer growth and EV adoption, offset by RTR market reductions and long-term DSM/solar impacts. The forecast uses SAE models and incorporates factors like federal EV targets and renewable energy integration.

2023 58 - 2,397 2,455 10.8 2024F 144 1 2,219 2,365 -3.7 2025F 144 4 2,259 2,408 1.8 2026F 149 12 2,267 2,428 0.8 2027F 148 24 2,265 2,437 0.4 2028F 148 36 2,283 2,466 1.2 2029F 148 39 2,306 2,493 1.1 2030F 148 39 2,360 2,547 2.2 2031F 147...

AI summary The text presents a 10-year forecast table with projected values and uncertainty factors affecting electricity forecasting, including weather, energy efficiency programs, economic activity, and technology changes. It introduces a section on existing generation resources, highlighting the complexity of long-term electricity planning.

2024 10-Year System Outlook Report (NSUARB M11764) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Referencing pages 6 and 15 of 67, NS Power stated that Evergreen scenario CE1-E1-R2 (net 4 zero 2035, cur...

AI summary NS Power selected the Evergreen CE1-E1-R2 scenario for the 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report due to its alignment with the Clean Power Plan, The Path to 2030, and the 2024 Load Forecast. Other lower-cost plans were excluded as they included the Atlantic Loop or hybrid peak scenarios not aligned with current policy and load forecasts.

in the 2024 Load Forecast. 24 25 Please refer to SBA IR-1 for a comparison of the 2024 Load Forecast to the “Current Policy 26 and Trends” forecast used in the 2022 Evergreen IRP. Date Filed: September 19, 2024 NSPI (NSUARB) IR-1 Page 1 of...

AI summary The text references the 2024 Load Forecast and directs readers to SBA IR-1 for comparative analysis with the 2022 Evergreen IRP. It also mentions NSPI's responses to NSUARB information requests and cites document M11764 as the 2024 10-Year System Outlook Report.

1 least-cost planning and robust stakeholder engagement in the decision-making 2 process. 4 3 4 NS Power provides its Load Forecast on an annual basis in April of each year, and that Load 5 Forecast is used in the development of that year’...

AI summary NS Power's Load Forecast and 10-Year System Outlook are subject to NSUARB hearings. The SBA highlights risks from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), which may allow continued use of emitting generators in peaking capacity. NSPI relies on emitting resources despite potential regulatory changes, posing risks if final regulations are less permissive.

Page 1 of 3 1 Request IR-01 2 Refer to the 10-Year System Outlook (the “Report”) Section 2.0 - Load Forecast, Page 7 of 67. 3 a. Please provide a comparison between the 2024 Load Forecast with the forecast used 4 in Evergreen IRP scenario...

AI summary The document contains three regulatory requests addressing load forecasts, resource buildout discrepancies, and Green Choice Program procurement. It seeks comparisons between 2024 load forecasts and prior IRP scenarios, reconciliation of resource timelines with NSPI’s Path to 2030 Report, and confidence in meeting renewable energy targets through the Green Choice Program.