Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12394

13 1. Canada 14 GDP is an important indicator of economic activity and a direct input to the multi-stage DCF 15 model. Figure 2 shows that the Canadian economy was generally weak from the third quarter of 16 2022 through the first quarter...

AI summary The text discusses Canada's economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation from 2020 to 2025. It highlights a weak economy from 2022 to early 2024, followed by a recovery in 2024 and 2025. Inflation peaked in 2022 but has since declined, though it remains above the Bank of Canada's target of 2.0 percent.

prospects – particularly in industries relying on international trade. 29 The threat of tariffs pulled trade forward, which boosted both exports and imports. CONCENTRIC ENERGY ADVISORS, INC. PAGE 19 19 Bank of Canada, Press Release issued...

AI summary The document discusses the impact of US trade policies on the Canadian economy, considering two scenarios: one with reduced uncertainty and limited tariffs, and another with a prolonged trade war. Both scenarios affect inflation and GDP growth, with the latter leading to a significant recession and higher inflation.

6 7 8 9 Note: For 2027 forecasting pmposes, NSPML has applied an escalation rate of 3% to the base 2026 Assessment cost, which does not have a material effect on the overall total for these specific categories. NSPML has not profiled or es...

AI summary NSPML has applied a 3% escalation rate to the base 2026 Assessment cost for 2027 forecasting purposes. Vegetation management and transmission inspection approaches are discussed in the context of Matter No. Ml 1791, with plans for helicopter inspections and drone-based structural inspections.

NSPML Responses to Nova Scotia Energy Board Information Requests 1 Request IR-02: 24 year government yields from 2011-2023 to average September (November) Consensus 25 forecasts. 1 Question: 2 (a) Please provide the source Consensus Foreca...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Maritime Link (NSPML) responds to the Nova Scotia Energy Board's request regarding the use of Consensus Forecast documents and the methodology for estimating 30-year Canada yields. NSPML explains that forecasts are used in the cost of capital analysis as they reflect forward-looking estimates of investor expectations.

.5 21.2 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield, %2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 2 End period 3 End July 2025 4 End April 2026 1 Signifies average for period We have 'telescoped' the 6-10 year rolling-period average of GDP and CPI forec...

AI summary The text discusses the telescoping of GDP and CPI forecasts over a 6-10 year period from 2018 to 2025, highlighting major global events such as the Great Moderation, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. It mentions the influence of these events on geopolitics, globalisation, and asset pricing.

JAPAN APRIL 2025 Avera ge % Chanç ge on F Previo us Ca lendaı r Year nual Ital Dom oss lestic duct Priv Cons tio ump- iness tment istrial uction sumer ces Cons Pri (ex. a (less a -Core sumer ces all food alcohol) ergy) Corp Go estic orate...

AI summary The document presents economic forecasts for Japan from 2025 to 2026, including various economic indicators such as production, consumption, investment, and inflation, as predicted by different economic forecasting entities like Deutsche Securities, JP Morgan - Japan, ITOCHU Institute, and Citigroup Japan.

Historical Data % change on previous year 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gross Domestic Product 3.7 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 Private Consumption 2.3 5.6 -0.4 0.3 Machinery & Eqpt Investment 3.5 4.5 -0.8 -5.5 Industrial Production 3.6 -0.7 -1.8 -4.4 Consumer Pri...

AI summary The historical data table provides economic indicators for Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2024, including GDP growth, private consumption, investment, industrial production, inflation rates, unemployment, and other economic metrics. The data highlights economic fluctuations over the period.

Stagflation Scenario Deepens The outlook is characterized by sluggish growth and rampant inflationary pressures. In the 2025 Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stressed that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects real G...

AI summary The text discusses a deepening stagflation scenario in the UK, with slow growth and rising inflation. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts lower GDP growth and higher inflation in 2025, exacerbated by tax increases, energy price caps, and global economic disruptions.

Fear of US Tariffs Deepens Downturn Over the past month, the US has implemented 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium and cars. On April 2, no further tariffs were imposed on Canada, as it was exempt under the USMCA trade agreement, but...

AI summary The US has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, and cars, deepening economic concerns. Canada's response includes reciprocal tariffs on US cars. The threat of tariffs has led to a drop in investment forecasts and retail trade, with a notable spike in exports before tariffs took effect. Inflation has increased due to the end of a GST/HST tax break, and uncertainty remains as the US economic relationship deteriorates.

APRIL 2025 NORWAY Averaç je % Cha nge o n Prev ious Cale ndar Year Ann Tot Rates on S urve y Date Gro Dome Gro ss Pri vate Gro ss ufac- Cama Cur 4 .6% ; 3.9 % Prod (Ma lan luct in- Dome Prod (Tot uct on- ption Fix Inve me est- Pro ring duc...

AI summary The document presents economic forecasts from various institutions for Norway in 2025 and 2026, including data on GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates. The table includes forecasts from entities such as Econ Intelligence Unit, Fitch Ratings, S&P Global Market Intel, and others.

Historical Data % change on previous year 2021 2022 2023 2024 GDP (Mainland) 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.6 GDP (Total) 3.9 3.2 0.1 2.1 Private Consumption 5.1 7.4 -1.4 1.3 Gross Fixed Investment 0.7 0.3 -1.5 -1.9 Manufacturing Production 3.2 -0.3 -0.2 1...

AI summary The text presents historical economic data for Norway from 2021 to 2024, including GDP growth, inflation, investment, and other economic indicators. It highlights fluctuations in GDP, private consumption, and wage growth, along with nominal GDP and population statistics for 2023.

SPAIN APRIL 2025 A۱ /eraç je % C hang je on Previ ous C Calend dar Ye ear Year r Avg Annu al To tal Rate s on S Survey Date Hous G ross 0- _ 0 Ge neral 2 .4 % 3 3.3% Dom oss iesti duct c hol d 1- Fi In ixed vest- ient Pro strial duc- on Co...

AI summary The text presents economic forecasts for Spain from 2025 to 2026, including data on inflation, employment, and various economic indicators. Forecasts are provided by multiple economic institutions such as Capital Economics and AFI, and include metrics like GDP growth, consumer price indices, and interest rates.

APRIL 2025 SWEDEN Avera ge % Char nge or Pre vious Cale ndar Year Ann ual To tal Rates on Su ırvey Date ٥. Но use- G ross Min ing & С on- Но urly Curi ont neral 2 .4 % 2 .5 % Don ross nestic oduct h C old on- ption F In ixed vest- nent fac...

AI summary The document contains economic forecasts from various institutions for Sweden in 2025 and 2026, including inflation rates, GDP growth, and other economic indicators. The data includes projections from organizations such as HSBC, Capital Economics, and Oxford Economics.

Historical Data % change on previous year 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gross Domestic Product 5.9 1.5 -0.1 1.0 Household Consumption 6.0 2.8 -2.1 0.3 Gross Fixed Investment 7.3 0.3 -1.5 -1.0 Min. & Manufacturing Prodn 6.9 2.5 1.7 -0.7 Consumer Pric...

AI summary The document presents economic data for Sweden, including GDP growth, consumption, investment, and inflation rates from 2021 to 2024, along with details on the current account balance, government budget, and interest rates. It also includes population and exchange rate information for 2023.

We have 'telescoped' the 6-10 year rolling-period average of GDP and CPI forecasts (collected four times a year) from January 2018 to April 2025. This encapsulates the Great Moderation era of globalisation and 0% interest rates, followed b...

AI summary The text discusses the 'telescoping' of GDP and CPI forecasts from 2018 to 2025, highlighting shifts from the Great Moderation era to the impacts of the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and subsequent changes in global geopolitics and monetary policies.

Italy g April 1911 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 ∠∪31-35 Gross Domestic Product 5.9 1.5 -0.1 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 Household Consumption 6.0 2.8 -2.1 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 Gross Fixed Investment 7.3...

AI summary The text presents economic data for Italy and Switzerland, including GDP, household consumption, investment, production, consumer prices, and treasury bond yields from 2021 to 2035. The data highlights trends in economic growth, inflation, and investment over time.

NSPML Responses to Nova Scotia Energy Board Information Requests 1 Concentric agrees that many electric transmission companies recover their revenue 4 The overnight rate was reduced by the Bank of Canada five times in 2024 to 3.25 percent,...

AI summary The document discusses the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain the overnight rate at 2.75% in July 2025, citing economic resilience, inflation pressures from trade disruptions, and uncertainties regarding the impact of higher US tariffs on the Canadian economy. The BOC emphasized the need for careful monitoring of inflation and economic risks.

5 The 1962-2024 statistics are obviously driven by the high rates of inflation during the 1970s 6 and 1980s. With the exception of 2022 and 2023, where inflation hit 6.8% and 3.9% 8/1/2003 8/1/2004 8/1/2005 8/1/2006 8/1/2007 8/1/2008 8/1/2...

AI summary The text discusses inflation rates from 1962 to 2024, noting high inflation during the 1970s and 1980s, and lower rates since 1991, aligning with the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range. It highlights the stability of CPI growth and a significant decline in standard deviation since 1991.

In this scenario: - Global growth slows to around 2.5% by the end of 2025 before picking up and stabilizing at around 3% over 2026 and 2027. - Tariffs cause US inflation to rise to about 3% by the end of 2025. It declines thereafter. The B...

AI summary Global growth is projected to slow to 2.5% by the end of 2025 before recovering to 3% by 2026-2027. U.S. inflation is expected to rise to 3% by 2025 due to tariffs, but will decline afterward. The Bank of Canada notes that while tariffs negatively impacted U.S. economic growth, factors like AI investment and strong productivity growth helped mitigate the slowdown.

ng papers for Figure A1.1 and Table A1.1, below, are appended as Attachment O to my evidence. FIGURE A1.1 LONG-TERM CANADA BOND YIELDS VERSUS FORECASTS (2011-2023) 6 In order to examine the statistical significance of the differences in fo...

AI summary The text discusses the statistical analysis of forecasting accuracy using mean squared error (MSE) for long-term Canada bond yields versus forecasts from September and November. The analysis shows that using actual yields provides significantly better forecasts than Consensus forecasts, with the differences being statistically significant.

ad increased since J. Thygesen's evidence was submitted. 35 However, the Commission observes that inflation had, in fact, decreased in June 2023 from its June 2022 high. 36 - 40. Dr. Cleary acknowledged that inflation was high in 2022, but...

AI summary The text discusses inflation trends and its impact on utility cost recovery. It notes that inflation peaked in 2022 but is expected to decrease, with central bank policies contributing to this trend. D. Madsen argues that regulatory support can mitigate the effects of inflation on utility cost recovery.

Overview The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of g...

AI summary The Canadian economy is facing challenges from US tariffs, leading to reduced exports and higher costs. Global trade reconfiguration and structural changes, including demographic shifts and AI adoption, are adding uncertainty. Inflation remains moderate, but monetary policy cannot offset long-term impacts of these factors.

Other key inputs to the projection The Bank of Canada's projection is conditional on several other key inputs and assumptions about their future path. The Bank regularly reviews these assumptions and adjusts the economic projection accordi...

AI summary The Bank of Canada's economic projection is based on several key inputs, including the effects of tariffs and trade tensions on productivity and investment, assumptions about policy uncertainty, and changes in population growth and potential output. The projection also considers oil prices, the Canadian dollar, and the impact of tariff revenues on households and governments.

Chart 19: GDP growth is expected to strengthen, but the level of activity is lower than projected in the January Report Quarterly data a. Quarter-over-quarter percentage change of real GDP at annual rates b. Level of real GDP, index: 2024Q...

AI summary GDP growth is expected to strengthen, but activity levels remain below previous projections. Global trade reconfiguration and tariffs may increase business costs and prices, though their inflationary impact is less than anticipated due to removed counter-tariffs. Inflation is projected to stay near 2% as weaker demand offsets these pressures.

Chart 26: US policy uncertainty indexes remain elevated US policy uncertainty indexes, index: 2015–19 = 100, 7-day moving average, daily data Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2024 average (both indexes) 2025...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the global economy, noting that exporters are rerouting goods to avoid tariffs, investment decisions are being affected, and global growth is expected to slow. The US policy uncertainty indexes remain elevated, and the global economy is on a lower growth path due to trade tensions.

Growth is expected to moderate GDP growth is anticipated to slow in 2026 from its strong pace in the second half of 2025, pulled down by policy uncertainty and higher tariffs. Lower interest rates support household spending. Overall, growt...

AI summary GDP growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to policy uncertainty and higher tariffs, with lower interest rates supporting household spending. US growth is forecast to remain near 2% but is lower than previously expected. Inflation is expected to moderate toward 2½% by the end of 2026.

Projections Economic growth in Canada is projected to strengthen from around 0.75% in the second half of 2025, with annual growth averaging 1.4% over 2026 and 2027. Inflation is expected to remain around 2% over the projection horizon. The...

AI summary Economic growth in Canada is projected to strengthen from 0.75% in the second half of 2025, with an average of 1.4% over 2026 and 2027. Inflation is expected to remain around 2%. The current outlook is weaker due to trade conflicts compared to the January base-case projection.

Chart 33: The October 2025 and January 2025 Monetary Policy Report outlooks

AI summary Chart 33 presents the outlooks from the October 2025 and January 2025 Monetary Policy Reports, highlighting key economic indicators and forecasts related to inflation, employment, and monetary policy.

Canadian outlook Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is approximately 0.7 percentage points lower in both 2025 and 2026 than in the January Report. After historical revisions are taken into account, the level of Canadian GDP is projecte...

AI summary The Canadian GDP growth is projected to be 0.7 percentage points lower in 2025 and 2026 compared to the January Report, mainly due to tariffs, US trade policies, and weaker demand. CPI inflation is expected to be 0.3 percentage points lower in 2025 and unchanged in 2026, influenced by lower oil prices and the removal of the consumer carbon tax.

13 1. Canada GDP is an important indicator of economic activity that is a direct input to the multi-stage DCF model and also signals demand for all inputs to the economy, including capital. [Figure 2](#page-43-0) shows that the Canadian ec...

AI summary The text discusses economic indicators in Canada, including GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation, and their impact on the multi-stage DCF model and cost of capital. It notes a slowdown in GDP growth from late 2022 to early 2024, followed by recovery, and highlights the relationship between inflation and capital costs.

span> 17 Bank of Canada, Press Release issued March 12, 2025. 18 Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, January 29, 2025, at 1-2. - 1 4) Canadian economic growth is forecast to average 1.8% in 2025 and 2026. Household 2 spending strengthe...

AI summary The Bank of Canada forecasts Canadian economic growth of 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong household spending and past interest rate cuts. However, the outlook is uncertain due to potential inflation risks and U.S. tariffs, which may disrupt trade and negatively impact consumer and business confidence.

Concentric suggested that an additional consideration is that not all Ontario utilities have an A-rating and the OEB should monitor any impacts on the DLTDR for utilities that have different credit ratings. Using Canadian data over the 201...

AI summary Concentric advised the OEB to monitor the impact of different credit ratings on the DLTDR. Dr. Cleary found that using historical 30-year bond yields from the Government of Canada provides more accurate forecasts than predicted values, noting an upward bias of 0.4%.

8.0 MULTI-YEAR ASSESSMENTS [217] In the 2025 assessment decision, the NSUARB stated: [85] The Board notes that multi-year assessment applications could be more efficient and reduce regulatory costs for both NSPML and intervenors. The Board...

AI summary The NSUARB discusses the efficiency and regulatory costs of multi-year assessments, noting that NSPML's single-year approach is due to uncertainties in O&M costs. The Board encourages multi-year assessments and suggests that expensing marine survey costs over several years could reduce forecasting risks. The Small Business Advocate and Industrial Group highlight the need for balance between forecast accuracy and regulatory efficiency.

- 5 (b) Please update Table 2 with additional columns showing Forecasted, 6 Approved, (to the extent it differs from Forecasted) and Actual for each of 7 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and for 2025 Forecasted to year-end, Approved 8 and Actual to...

AI summary The text requests an update to Table 2 with additional columns for Forecasted, Approved, and Actual figures for the years 2021 through 2025, along with explanations for any material differences between these figures.