Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12412

- If additional one-time transition costs occur in the current fiscal period, they will reduce the - residual amount of Provincial funding available to offset the Ongoing OM&A expenses, and be - reflected in the Net OM&A Deferral and Varia...

AI summary The NSIESO proposes a Net OM&A Deferral and Variance Account to manage forecasted OM&A costs, address variances, and defer rate recovery until 2026-2027. One-time transition costs may impact provincial funding, while forecasting challenges arise from limited historical data.

1 Example Summary Table Forecasted cost 150 150 150 150 Less: PNS funding - 50 - 50 - 30 - Net Ongoing OM&A 100 100 120 150 Actual cost 90 110 130 170 Variance - 10 10 10 20

AI summary The table compares forecasted and actual costs, showing variances over time. PNS funding reduces forecasted costs, but actual costs still show increasing variances, with net ongoing OM&A costs rising from 100 to 150 and actual costs increasing from 90 to 170.

VIA E-FILING Nova Scotia Energy Board 3rd Floor, Summit Place 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3P6 Dear Nova Scotia Energy Board: Re: M12412 IESO NS 2025-2026 Expenditure Forecast and Revenue Requirement Application – Clarification...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia submitted an application for expenditure forecast and revenue requirements for 2025-2026, but identified errors and potential misleading information in the materials, requesting the Board's clarification.

1. Exhibit B-1, Page 13 of 36, Lines 2-4 For reference, IESO Nova Scotia seeks to clarify the following portion of Exhibit B-1: The forecasting was informed by information that includes an organizational workplan that identifies activities...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia clarifies that the forecasting in Exhibit B-1 is based on an organizational workplan, which they have not created as a standalone document but instead refer to the Expenditure Forecast and its underlying assumptions.

1 Request IR - 1 - 2 Reference: Exhibit A-1 (page 9 of 36, line 11, Table 1) - 3 a) Please provide a copy of the underlying financial forecast document used to prepare the - 4 total OM&A expense forecast, as summarized in Exhibit A-1 (page...

AI summary The request seeks the underlying financial forecast document for OM&A expenses, preferably in Excel format with calculations and assumptions, as referenced in Exhibit A-1 of the Application (page 9 of 36, line 11, Table 1).

7 Response IR - 1 - 8 a) A copy of the underlying financial forecast excel document is attached in DGT-IR1. This - 9 file is provided in a non-confidential PDF format with redacted confidential information, - 10 and a confidential excel fo...

AI summary The response includes a financial forecast document (DGT-IR1) provided in two formats: a non-confidential PDF with redacted information and a confidential Excel file containing detailed calculations.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR - 4 2 Reference: Exhibit B-1 (page 13 of 36, lines 1-4) "the NSIESO prepared its forecast using a 3 bottom-up approach. The forecasting was informed by information that includes an 4 organizational workplan id...

AI summary The NSIESO used a bottom-up forecasting methodology informed by industry experts and an organizational workplan embedded in forecast assumptions. The workplan was not created separately. This relates to forecasting methodology and regulatory processes.

1 Request IR - 18 - 2 Reference: Exhibit B-2 (page 23 of 36, line 1, Table 10) - 3 a) Please provide the supporting calculations outlining how Board Compensation of $0.48M - 4 and Board Expenses of $0.03M were forecasted. Please provide th...

AI summary The request seeks detailed calculations and sources for forecasting Board Compensation of $0.48M and Board Expenses of $0.03M, emphasizing transparency in assumptions and methodologies used.

Request IR - 27 - Reference: Exhibit B-2 (page 26 of 36, line 22, Table 13 & page 27 of 36, lines 9-11)…"Office - Lease: These costs are to lease approximately 5,250 square foot temporary office space in - downtown Halifax as of August 1,...

AI summary Request IR-27 seeks justification for Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) assumed rental rate of $0.14 million for a temporary downtown Halifax office lease (5,250 sq ft, 30-35 employees) starting August 1, 2025. The request references Exhibit B-2, Table 13, and specific page/line numbers.

1 Request IR - 8 - 2 Reference: Exhibit N-1(i), p. 8 of 36, lines 10-12 - 3 Have estimated forecasts been prepared for the annual expenditure and revenue requirement in - 4 each of the NSIESO's second and third fiscal years? If so, please...

AI summary The NSIESO (NSEB) has not prepared estimated forecasts for annual expenditure and revenue requirements in its second and third fiscal years. It plans to submit the 2026-2027 revenue requirement by December 31, 2025, under the More Access to Energy Act . The request references Exhibit N-1(i).

Request IR - 5 - Refer to the Application and Exhibit B-2 Ongoing OM&A Cost Category Detail, subsection E, - Legal and Regulatory ($0.81M), on pages 24-25 of 36 and respond to the following: - a) Please identity the budget portion of the f...

AI summary Request IR-5 asks NSIESO to identify the budget portion for legal costs related to intervening parties in proceedings and their source, and whether legal services are provided by in-house or external counsel. The request references Exhibit B-2, pages 24-25, and subsection E of the Application.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR - 3 2 Reference: Application, Exhibit B-2, pages 19-21, employee transfers and staffing and 3 consultants. 4 a) Confirm, or explain the extent to which otherwise, that staffing transfers to NS IESO 5 from NS P...

AI summary The document requests clarification on staffing transitions from NS Power to NS IESO for the upcoming IRP, new employees involved in the 2025 IRP, consulting fees allocation, and modeling software used. Responses reference prior submissions (NSEB IR-17, CA IR-5). Key issues include IRP staffing continuity, consulting costs, and modeling tools.

- 4 Figure 1 Summary of findings, observations and conclusions # Section title Findings, observations, and conclusions • Based on our understanding of the bottom-up methodology applied by the NSIESO, we believe the forecasting approach use...

AI summary The NSIESO's bottom-up forecasting methodology for deriving the test-year budget is deemed appropriate and aligned with standard practice based on the understanding provided.

4.3.1.1 Common budgeting methodology - For new ISOs, utilities, or organizations in general, bottom-up budgeting is commonly used as they lack historical - data and rely heavily on input from other resources. Bottom-up budgeting starts at...

AI summary The text explains that bottom-up budgeting is commonly used by new ISOs and utilities due to lack of historical data, emphasizing stakeholder engagement, forecast accuracy, and collaboration.

19 4.3.2.1 The NSIESO's budgeting process Per the Application, the NSIESO prepared its forecast using a bottom-up approach, informed by information that includes an organizational workplan identifying activities that the NSIESO will carry...

AI summary The NSIESO's budgeting process uses a bottom-up forecasting methodology, informed by an organizational workplan and industry expert input. The NSIESO clarified that the workplan is embedded in the forecast assumptions, with no separate document created. This approach was detailed in their response to DGT's IR-4.

18 Overview 14 25 19 Per the Application, this cost category covers expenses required by the Act for a group of non-unionized technical 20 employees transitioning from NSPI to NSIESO. The forecast assumes 23 employees will begin on October...

AI summary The application seeks to cover costs for 23 non-unionized technical employees transitioning from NSPI to NSIESO between October 2025 and March 2026, focusing on system planning. These roles differ from non-technical administration positions. The forecast outlines full-time equivalents (FTEs) transferred from NSPI.

Rider C - The purpose of Rider C to adjust transmission rates quarterly so that the deferral account balance reaches zero by - year-end. - The AESO calculates Rider C as a charge or credit based on the difference between forecasted and act...

AI summary Rider C adjusts transmission rates quarterly to balance the deferral account by year-end, calculated by AESO based on forecasted vs. actual costs and revenues. Applied to Rate DTS and FTS customers, it smooths short-term variances. [19]

ynapse provided recommendations and key findings related to Nova Scotia Power, Powering a Green Nova Scotia, Together - 2020 Integrated Resource Plan , November 27, 2020. - Power's updated Action Plan and Roadmap, which it published in Aug...

AI summary Synapse provided recommendations and comments on Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) updates, including the 2020, 2023, and 2025 plans. Synapse also submitted evidence in the Reliability Tie proceeding (M12217), focusing on energy and capacity modeling. Their involvement dates back to 2014 comments on NS Power's 2014 IRP.

Q Has NSIESO begun its IRP modeling? - No. In response to discovery from Synapse, NSIESO indicated that all of the major - steps required before commencing IRP modeling and developing the sets of input - parameters and a scenario analysis...

AI summary NSIESO has not commenced IRP modeling, with major preparatory steps pending. The response references recommendations from the Reliability Tie case (Matter M12217) and outlines six areas for Synapse's modeling recommendations, including supply-side costs, regional coordination, energy exports, portfolio ELCC, demand response, and emissions costs.

SUMMARY Mechanical engineer and energy economics analyst with over 30 years of experience in the energy industry. Activities focused primarily on electric power industry issues, especially resource planning, renewable and battery storage r...

AI summary A mechanical engineer and energy economics analyst with over 30 years of experience in the electric power industry, specializing in resource planning, renewable and battery storage integration, economic analysis of power plants, transmission, wholesale markets, and demand-side alternatives. Expertise spans technical and economic dimensions of power systems in the US and Canada, including integrated resource planning, renewable integration, transmission pricing, RTO/ISO structures, and regulatory policies.

Request IR-13: - Reference: Exhibit N-1(i), p. 14 of 36 - a) The NSIESO states: "For the purpose of preparing its expenditure forecast, the NSIESO has assumed a start date of September 1, 2025, for the CEO, and October 1, 2025, for the bal...

AI summary The NSIESO's expenditure forecast assumes employee onboarding by October 1, 2025, but the Board questions if this is feasible given the CEO's appointment in mid-August. It requests clarification on onboarding timelines and financial impacts, as well as an organizational chart for March 31, 2026.

Request IR-2: - Reference: NS Power Reply Submission, September 4, 2025, M12247, page 19, the ELCC study and the Net Zero Atlantic Hybrid Peak Study. - a) In early August, Net Zero Atlantic released a report entitled "Mitigating the Impact...

AI summary Request IR-2 seeks NSIESO's understanding of how Net Zero Atlantic's report on building electrification may influence IRP modeling assumptions and updates on the ELCC study's status, including management responsibility between NSPI and NSIESO.

Request IR-3: - Reference: Application, Exhibit B-2, pages 19-21, employee transfers and staffing and consultants. - a) Confirm, or explain the extent to which otherwise, that staffing transfers to NS IESO from NS Power associated with the...

AI summary Request IR-3 seeks clarification on NSIESO staffing transitions from NS Power for the next IRP, including impacts on planning, new hires, consulting fees, and modeling software. Questions address employee transfers, consulting firm selection, and cost allocations for IRP-related tasks.

does not have historical organizational and operational data. As a result, there may be circumstances that may not be readily foreseeable that have not formed the basis of its financial forecasting. - 10 Recognizing these explanations for...

AI summary The NSIESO acknowledges limited historical data affecting financial forecasting and explains its current lack of a proposed rate recovery mechanism. Requests focus on recovery timelines, rate impacts, and transition costs, with the NSIESO stating some expenses will be fully funded by provincial funds without Board approval. The NSIESO also outlines transitioned operational costs from NSPI.

Non-Confidential To: The Nova Scotia Independent Energy System Operator ("NSIESO") 4. Reference: Exhibit B-1 (page 13 of 36, lines 1-4) "the NSIESO prepared its forecast using a bottom-up approach. The forecasting was informed by informati...

AI summary The document contains two requests directed at the NSIESO. The first asks for details on a bottom-up forecasting methodology and the associated organizational workplan. The second requests a copy of a funding agreement for a grant received by the NSIESO in March 2025.

VIA E-FILING Nova Scotia Energy Board 3rd Floor, Summit Place 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3P6 Dear Nova Scotia Energy Board: Re: M12412 IESO NS 2025-2026 Expenditure Forecast and Revenue Requirement Application Request for Boar...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia is submitting responses to information requests and seeks confidential treatment for third-party proprietary and personnel information in its 2025-2026 Expenditure Forecast and Revenue Requirement Application. It emphasizes transparency while requesting confidentiality for specific data types.

3.4 Minimum Filing Requirements and Financial Controls [51] As discussed above, it was determined through the IR process that IESO Nova Scotia relied on generic market information and informal discussions to determine its forecasted expens...

AI summary The document outlines recommendations for minimum filing requirements for IESO Nova Scotia's financial applications, emphasizing formal support for budget items and stakeholder engagement. Doane Grant Thornton advised the Board to require detailed evidence for forecasted expenses, while the Industrial Group proposed four specific requirements, including historical financial data, stakeholder collaboration details, and justification for deferral amounts.