Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12451

Geographic and Infrastructure-Based Vulnerability - Many Mi'kmaq communities are rural or semi-remote, facing: - o Reduced access to natural gas or alternative heating fuels. - o Higher reliance on electric heating systems. - o Increased c...

AI summary Mi'kmaq communities in Nova Scotia face heightened energy challenges due to geographic isolation, reliance on electric heating, and increased maintenance costs. Climatic factors like wind and coastal weather further elevate energy demands in these communities.

Customer Growth and Support - Since 2022, NS Power's customer count has increased by 21,000 to approximately 559,000. That - is unprecedented and exciting growth in Nova Scotia in a very short time. This growth has been - driving a 30 perc...

AI summary NS Power reports a 21,000 customer increase since 2022, leading to a 30% surge in work requests. In 2024, they processed 27,000 permits and 44,000 inspections, hired more employees, supported 7,200 new solar customers, reduced residential disconnections by 45%, and implemented payment plans with CA and the Affordable Energy Coalition.

Roadmap of the Application - This application is organized into several key components, each critical to determining the - proposed rate adjustments: - 1. Status of Prior GRA-Related Directives: An update on the various directives from the...

AI summary The application outlines components for determining rate adjustments, including prior GRA directives, load forecasts, fuel costs, operating expenses, depreciation, rate base, capital structure, revenue requirements, cost-of-service studies, rate design, proposed rates, and regulatory changes. NS Power collaborates with customer advocates to balance affordability, reliability, and clean energy goals.

4 LOAD FORECAST

AI summary The document section '4 LOAD FORECAST' outlines the methodology for predicting electricity demand, referencing key acronyms such as FFO, CFFO, DBRS, GRA, COSS, CA, FAM, BCF, and AA/BA. These terms are integral to regulatory proceedings involving utility rate applications and cost-of-service analyses.

Figure 4-1 – Load Forecast 2026-2027 Year Anticipated Load (GWh) 2026 11,392 2027 11,311 The main differences between the 2024 Load Forecast and the GRA forecast are as follows:

AI summary Figure 4-1 presents the Load Forecast for 2026-2027, showing anticipated loads of 11,392 GWh and 11,311 GWh respectively. It highlights differences between the 2024 Load Forecast and the GRA forecast.

Five-Year Operating Cost Forecast - In this Application, NS Power has included a five-year forecast summary of operating costs in - Appendix 7D . Multi-year forecasts of operating costs are inherently uncertain. Many factors can - affect N...

AI summary NS Power's five-year operating cost forecast in Appendix 7D acknowledges inherent uncertainties due to factors like storms, maintenance, material costs, customer growth, and inflation. Figure 7-1 illustrates projected costs and percentage increases over five years.

8.2.2 Decommissioning Costs - A Depreciation Study requires NS Power to estimate the future cost of decommissioning its - generation sites, as depreciation rates are generally set to recover the unrecovered - decommissioning costs over the...

AI summary NS Power's depreciation study estimates decommissioning costs using three studies (Hatch Hydro, Boreas Hydro, Stantec Remediation) and a partial decommissioning scenario. Excluded are Wreck Cove, Tusket, and Mersey sites. Costs include removal of structures but exclude water management infrastructure. Adjustments consider inflation, labor, and material costs.

SR-02 2024 Load Forecast Report Attachment 1 – 2024 Load Forecast (Partially Confidential)

AI summary Attachment 1 of the SR-02 2024 Load Forecast Report, marked as partially confidential, outlines the 2024 load forecast. No detailed analysis or specific data points are provided in the text.

SR-03 Fuel Price Forecasts [no attachment]

AI summary The document 'SR-03 Fuel Price Forecasts' is part of a Nova Scotia regulatory proceeding. No attachment is provided, and the text contains no further details or analysis regarding fuel price forecasts.

Materiality: The majority of NS Power's capital structure has a fixed cost and does not require forecasting as equity is at the Board-approved rate and the cost of long-term debt is known, apart from forecast new issuances during the forec...

AI summary NS Power's capital structure primarily consists of fixed costs, with equity set at the Board-approved rate and long-term debt costs known except for new issuances. Forecasting is simplified due to these stable components, though new debt issuances during the forecast period introduce variability.

Forecast methodologies: The Company has adopted a practical approach to forecast short-term interest rates which relies on market-based consensus estimates of Canadian Treasury bills (T-bills) as published by reputable institutions. The Co...

AI summary The Company uses Canadian Treasury bills (T-bills) and expert forecasts for interest rate predictions, emphasizing transparency and low complexity. Alternative benchmarks like the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate are considered but found to have minimal impact. NS Power improved forecasts by incorporating more data points to reduce outlier influence.

2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 3A Page 10 of 14 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) However, the inclusion of more data points will increase the effort required to compile forecasts. The adoption of the Bloomberg consensus...

AI summary The text discusses the trade-off between increased data points and manual effort in forecasting, noting that adopting the Bloomberg consensus rate reduces manual effort while improving data access. This approach balances accuracy and efficiency in rate forecasting.

Accuracy of Rate Forecasts The consistent and accurate prediction of interest rates is not achievable. Analysts provide forecasts which are supported by detailed research and analysis. However, these analysts cannot consistently predict fu...

AI summary The document discusses the challenges in accurately forecasting interest rates, noting that no methodology (Bloomberg consensus or Board-approved) proved more reliable during 2022–2025. Volatility and limited data points (historical approach) contributed to forecast inaccuracies. The Company emphasizes the need for more data sources and acknowledges inherent limitations in improving forecast reliability.

Timing and Shortening the forecast process: The Company's Budget is prepared on an annual basis in August/September. After internal review and approval of the Budget, the Company uses the budgeted financial information to prepare the WACC/...

AI summary The company prepares its annual budget in August/September, using it to calculate WACC/AFUDC filed with the Board in November. The budget provides necessary financial data for forecasting debt and equity balances and interest rates. The company recommends continuing to use budget figures for these calculations.

Use of opening and closing debt balances The Company forecasts the annual cost of short-term debt using the forecast borrowing at the end of the month multiplied by the forecast short-term interest rate applicable to the quarter. The annua...

AI summary The Company uses a simple average of opening and closing debt balances to forecast short-term debt costs and calculate WACC/AFUDC. They propose switching to a 12-month average of short-term debt to align with standardized filings and ensure accurate rate base figures.

Chapter 2 Risk/Opportunity Assessment Building on the industry-wide climate knowledge in Chapter 1, this chapter focuses on NS Power's adaptation plan, compromising on three steps: [Identify Critical Assets and Operations](#page-40-1) (Ste...

AI summary Chapter 2 outlines NS Power's three-step adaptation plan for climate risks: identifying critical assets, assessing climate impacts, and evaluating risks to assets. It emphasizes scenario analysis and integration with existing risk management frameworks.

3. Step 3: Identify Key Potential Climate Impacts This section explains how NS Power has increased its knowledge on how climate impacts may develop over time and how they might be prioritized for adaptation. It summarizes the climate scena...

AI summary NS Power outlines its approach to identifying climate impacts on assets and operations through collaboration with Acclimatise and Manifest. The process includes climate scenario data analysis, prioritization methods, and integration into asset management. The CEA Guide's Step 3 focuses on assessing existing and potential climate risks to critical infrastructure.

2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 3C Page 17 of 38 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) different areas across Nova Scotia. There are 31 weather stations (see Figure 6) that collect the data used in the FWI calculation. The FWI...

AI summary The document discusses the Fire Weather Index (FWI) in Nova Scotia, using data from 31 weather stations to assess fire behavior. The FWI system, with six components, is utilized by Forestry for daily wildfire management decisions during the fire season.

2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 3C Page 19 of 38 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) meteorological risks and assess when weather conditions may cause an impact on our infrastructure. This allows the company to mobilize appr...

AI summary NS Power employs tools like the Fire Weather Index (FWI), weather stations, and cameras to assess wildfire risks, adjust operations, and collaborate with stakeholders. Effective forecasting requires integrating data from multiple sources to manage meteorological risks.

1 1 INTRODUCTION 2 3 The two-year test period includes fuel data for 2026-2027. The following is a more detailed 4 explanation about the sources of fuel and purchased power, the fuels forecast for 2026-2027, the 5 Maritime Link, and the he...

AI summary The two-year test period (2026-2027) includes fuel data analysis, covering sources of fuel and purchased power, fuel forecasts, the Maritime Link project, and the hedging plan. Details on these elements are provided for regulatory consideration.

1 Figure 4 - 2027 Generation by Type 3 4 2

AI summary The document references Figure 4, which outlines projected 2027 electricity generation by type. The figure is part of a regulatory proceeding in Nova Scotia, likely discussing energy mix projections, though specific details are not visible in the provided text.

1 Figure 12 - 2027 Breakdown of BCF by Fuel and Purchased Power Type 2 3 4 The following sections provide details on NS Power's 2026-2027 foel requirements compared to 5 the 2024 GRA Refresh. All commodities purchased in USD have been conv...

AI summary NS Power's 2026-2027 fuel requirements are compared to the 2024 GRA Refresh, with USD commodities converted to CAD using a forecasted exchange rate. The methodology for deriving this rate is detailed in Section 1.2.11 of the Application.

1 1.2.8 Renewable Energy 2 3 1.2.8.1 NS Power-Owned Renewables 4 5 The renewable energy generated by NS Power comes from hydro, wind, biomass and solar. The 6 level of hydro generation forecast for 2026-2027 is based on a 23-year rolling a...

AI summary NS Power's renewable energy includes hydro, wind, biomass, and solar. Hydro forecasts for 2026-2027 use a 23-year average (925 GWh), while wind forecasts use a 3-year average (224 GWh). The Port Hawkesbury Biomass Plant (PHB) supplies renewable energy and steam to Port Hawkesbury Paper (PHP), with biomass management practices aligned with FAM guidelines and a 2016 Board letter. Revision 14 of the Fuel Manual is in OE-01F.

1.4 Enterprise Asset Management and Project Implementation The EAM and Project Implementation teams are responsible for asset management strategies, capital management and execution of large capital projects. These teams are responsible fo...

AI summary The EAM and Project Implementation teams manage asset strategies and capital projects for NS Power, focusing on decarbonization and reliability. OM&G expenses rose to $8.5M in 2024 due to expanded EIT programs and increased headcount. Forecasts show continued growth through 2027, driven by inflation, personnel needs, and cybersecurity investments. EITs are prioritized for cost-effective project management.

1.5 Energy Delivery Energy Delivery OM&G was $118.7 million in 2024, which is $24.0 million higher than the restated 2024 GRA compliance forecast of $94.6 million. Figure 7A-6: Energy Delivery 2024 Compliance Forecast vs. 2024 Actuals ($ M...

AI summary Energy Delivery OM&G costs rose to $118.7 million in 2024, exceeding the $94.6 million GRA forecast. Factors include population growth (2.2% annual rate since 2021), increased customer work (40% rise), and climate change impacts (storms, wildfires). NS Power implemented a Five-Year Plan to improve grid reliability and met key performance metrics in 2024.

llion decrease in Energy Delivery OM&G expense per the consensus approach to the GRA. The 2027 forecast for Energy Delivery is consistent with 2026 operating expense at $131.3 million in both years. Figure 7A-9: Energy Delivery 2026 Foreca...

AI summary The text references a decrease in Energy Delivery OM&G expenses under the GRA consensus approach, with 2027 forecasts aligning with 2026 operating expenses of $131.3 million. The figure illustrates forecast comparisons for Energy Delivery costs.

1.7 Environmental Services and Policy The Environmental Services and Policy group is responsible for completing environmental monitoring and compliance activities. Actual 2024 operating expense for the Environment team was $3.1 million as...

AI summary The Environmental Services and Policy group manages environmental compliance, with 2024 expenses exceeding the GRA forecast due to higher-than-expected inflation. The GRA budget for Environment is projected to decrease in 2025 and increase slightly in 2026-2027.

(in Thousands of $) 2024 Compliance 2026 Forecast vs 2024 2026 Forecast vs 2024 2026 Forecast vs 2025 2027 Forecast vs 2026 536690 Vehicle Allocated Costs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -...

AI summary The document presents financial data in thousands of dollars, showing compliance figures for 2024 and forecasts for 2026 and 2027. It includes various cost allocations and administrative overheads, with comparisons between years. The data appears to be part of a regulatory proceeding related to financial planning and forecasting.

br>484 494 (924) (1,290) Total Non-Labour (in Thousands of $) 2024 2026 Forecast 2026 Forecast 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast

AI summary The text presents a table with financial figures for non-labour costs in thousands of dollars, covering years 2024 through 2027. It includes a total of non-labour costs and forecasts for the years 2026 and 2027.

Reliability Implementation 2024 2026 Forecast 2026 Forecast 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast 534500 Internal Serv. Received - - - - - - - 534550 Warranty & Service Contracts - - - - - - - 534650 Training & Development 9 5 57 58 47 52 1 534750 P...

AI summary The table outlines various expense categories and their associated figures for 2024 and 2026 forecasts, including training and development, personal equipment, and miscellaneous revenue. It also includes a breakdown of total non-labour costs and energy delivery reliability budgets and forecasts.

6 d. Macroeconomic and Demographic Trends 7 According to TD Economics, Nova Scotia's economic growth is expected to slow in 2025 and 2026 8 compared to 2024 levels, which were supported by increased spending in the public sector. 9 Consume...

AI summary Nova Scotia's economic growth is projected to slow in 2025 and 2026, with population growth also expected to decline due to reduced immigration and intra-provincial migration. Unemployment is forecast to rise slightly, and real GDP growth will be lower than the national average. The Conference Board of Canada highlights long-term structural challenges, including limited consumer spending power due to an aging population and weak business investment.

COSS CA DR-9 Attachment 1 Page 291 of 627 Start Time End Time ANL_MW 4/25/2021 21:00 4/25/2021 22:00 923.3 4/25/2021 22:00 4/25/2021 23:00 893.4 4/25/2021 23:00 4/26/2021 0:00 813.4 4/26/2021 0:00 4/26/2021 1:00 724.9 4/26/2021 1:00 4/26/2...

AI summary The text provides a table of apparent net load (ANL_MW) values over a 24-hour period on April 25-27, 2021, showing fluctuations in load during different time intervals. These data points may be used for grid planning or load forecasting purposes.

- 3 describes the calculations for the ancillary services. All transmission charges shown are updated - 4 for costs and load determinants forecasted for 2022-2024 test years. The ancillary charges are - 5 based on 2019 operational actual d...

AI summary The text outlines the methodology for calculating ancillary services, noting that transmission charges are updated and based on 2019 operational data, with forecasts for 2022-2024 test years.

COSS IG DR-2 Attachment 1 Page 2 of 4 2024 Actuals (GWh) Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Total Other Imports 42.4 59.0 75.5 176.9 Battery 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 1248.4 1130.7 1055.0 3434.1...

AI summary The document presents data on energy generation and imports for 2024 and a forecast for 2030, highlighting contributions from various energy sources, including thermal generation and battery storage.

CONFIDENTIAL (Attachments Only) 1 Request DR-18: 2 3 Reference: Requests made of NS Power during October 16, 2024 Position Session by Patrick 4 Bowman and Melissa Davies on behalf of IG. 5 6 (a) Written Responses: 7 8 (i) Request NSP to sh...

AI summary The document outlines requests made by Patrick Bowman and Melissa Davies on behalf of an Independent Generator (IG) during a Position Session. The requests pertain to the impact of the MEU proposal on the cost of service, functionalization of IT investments, and modifications to energy modeling scenarios involving PHP ATL and PHP BTL.

Annual Filing Requirements for Base Cost of Fuel Forecast For each year in which NS Power applies to adjust the Base Cost of Fuel, a load forecast, Base Cost of Fuel and net system requirement forecast filing for the upcoming FAM year (Jan...

AI summary NS Power must submit annual filings for the Base Cost of Fuel forecast, including load forecasts and standardized filings using methods outlined in Appendix B. The Board considers these forecasts and stakeholder comments when making decisions on the Base Cost of Fuel for the following year.

Activities by BBA - Testing Hypothesis - Does the method yield an acceptable result - Develop the Road Map - Does More Precision = More Accuracy ? - Results are Exponential with Data (8760 data may results in 150,000 runs) - What is highes...

AI summary The document outlines activities by BBA, including hypothesis testing, developing a roadmap, examining transmission loss methodology, and starting Phase 2 implementation and validation. It raises questions about precision, data usage, and the value of activities.

Road Map - Develop the Road Map - Get more granularity in the results - Does More Precision = More Accuracy ? - Results are Exponential with Data (8760 data may results in 150,000 runs) - What is highest value activity (80/20 rule) - Exami...

AI summary The Road Map outlines steps to improve data precision and accuracy in forecasting, emphasizing the exponential impact of detailed data and the importance of using the best available data in transmission loss methodology.

2.1 Load Forecast Model NS Power will develop the Residential and Commercial Sector forecasts using a Statistically-Adjusted End-Use (SAE) model and will develop the industrial sector forecasts using customer surveys in conjunction with ec...

AI summary NS Power will use a Statistically-Adjusted End-Use (SAE) model for residential and commercial load forecasts, combining bottom-up end-use modeling with statistical economic forecasting. Industrial forecasts will use customer surveys and econometric models. Data sources include Natural Resources Canada and the US Energy Information Administrator, with economic outlooks based on the Conference Board of Canada.

2.5 Years of Data Energy models typically use 10 years of monthly sales data unless otherwise specified in the load forecast report. Weather data uses the most recent ten (10) year period to develop "normal" monthly weather profiles. The p...

AI summary The document discusses the use of 10 years of monthly sales data and recent weather data for energy modeling, with a design temperature of -15 degrees Celsius for peak forecast modeling.

6. The following variable maintenance cost factors (MF) are applied to estimate the proportion of the identified variable maintenance costs that are dependent on the amount of generation: a. Coal/biomass 0.60 b. Conventional gas/oil 0.35 c...

AI summary This section outlines variable maintenance cost factors (MF) for different types of generation sources, including coal/biomass, conventional gas/oil, and gas turbines. It also states that NS Power must provide adequate explanation and support for any deviations from the VOM calculation procedure outlined in the Forecasting Appendix.

4.9 IPPs IPP contracts will be forecast using the pricing structure and volumes set out in the contract. If the volume is not fixed, the simple average of the last three years of production will be used where available. If discrete changes...

AI summary IPP contracts will be forecast based on the pricing structure and volumes outlined in the contract. If volume is not fixed, the simple average of the last three years of production will be used. Adjustments will be made for changes in IPP capability, and if insufficient data exists, estimates will be based on available information and similar projects.

4.10 Hydro The hydro generation resource will be calculated using the Board approved methodology of a 23-year rolling average. The energy provided by each unit in the hydro fleet will be calculated from historical production percentages ba...

AI summary The hydro generation resource will be calculated using a 23-year rolling average approved by the Board. Adjustments to this average will be made and documented if hydro assets are added, decommissioned, or unavailable due to major inspections or overhauls.

6.0 Export Power The methodology used to forecast the price of power exports from Nova Scotia assumes that all exports are considered dump energy and are nominally priced at $10 per MWh in the dispatch optimization model. The forecast mode...

AI summary The methodology for forecasting power export prices assumes all exports are dump energy priced at $10 per MWh, with maximum export volumes constrained to the average of the past three years, allowing for adjustments based on market changes.

Highlights: - The Maritime Link (NSPML) delivered over 130% of contractually required flows - TE Invested over $250M USD in the Storm Protection Plan and over $140M USD in grid modernization and distribution reliability. supporting the rec...

AI summary The Maritime Link exceeded its required performance, and significant investments were made in grid reliability and safety. NSPI and other utilities reported strong customer growth and improved safety metrics, with a 24% reduction in Lost Time Injury rates over five years.

779 855 406 508 TAMPA ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS (000s) PEOPLES GAS CUSTOMERS (000s) Hillsborough County population growth expected to outpace that of Florida's over the next 10 years 1 1 Source: Bureau of Economic and business Research (BEBR), Un...

AI summary The text discusses population growth in Hillsborough County and Nova Scotia, along with trends in electrification, such as the increasing adoption of electric heat pumps and the target for zero-emission vehicle sales. It also references growth projections and forecasts for the region.

2 As of December 31, 2024 5 Uses 2024 as base year 2027 5 3 Forecasted capital spend 2025-2029 in millions of CAD – USD capital spend translated at 1.35 4 Adjusted EPS is a non-GAAP ratio 5

AI summary The text provides context for a regulatory proceeding, including a base year of 2024, a forecast period up to 2027, a capital spend forecast from 2025 to 2029, and a note about adjusted EPS being a non-GAAP ratio.

Page 1 of 1 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2026-2027 GRA SR-02 Attachment 1 Page 1 of 175 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF The Public Utilities Act, R.S.N.S. 1989, c.380, as amended 2024 Load Fore...

AI summary The document is a 2024 Load Forecast Report submitted to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board as part of a regulatory proceeding. It outlines the forecasting approach and major inputs used to predict electricity demand for the period 2026-2027. Key sections include an executive summary, introduction, and forecasting methodology.

CONFIDENTIAL (Attachment Only) 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence, DE-03-DE-04, section 4; SR-02 Attachment 1. 4 5 (a) The load forecast provided for use in the 2026-2027 GRA is dated April 30, 2024. 6 NSPI has since complet...

AI summary The document outlines a series of information requests (IR-7) related to the 2026-2027 Gas Rate Agreement (GRA) by Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI). NSPI responds that the 2026-2027 GRA rates were developed using the best available information, including the April 30, 2024 load forecast, and that discussions with customer representatives began in early 2025.

13 table: Year Estimated Peak (MW) Estimated Energy (MWh) 2020 0 2,122 2021 0 3,899 2022 1 7,347 2023 2 12,894 2024 4 23,732 14 15

AI summary The table presents estimated peak demand and energy usage from 2020 to 2024, showing a steady increase in both metrics over time. These figures likely relate to electricity demand forecasting or resource planning.

2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 LIST OF ATTACHMENTS (ELECTRONIC ONLY) 2 3 Attachment 1: Residential Intensities 4 Attachment 2: Commercial Small General Intensities 5 Attachment 3: Commercial General Intensities 6 Attachment 4: 10-Yea...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report provides a detailed analysis of electricity demand forecasting, including residential, commercial, and industrial models. It includes attachments and appendices that outline forecasting methods and stakeholder presentations.

1 2.0 INTRODUCTION 2 - 3 NS Power develops an annual forecast of energy sales and peak demand requirements which assess - 4 the effects of end-use and economic factors on the future power system load and load shape. The - 5 forecast is a f...

AI summary The document discusses the 2024 Load Forecast Report by NS Power, which was reviewed by the NSUARB through a paper hearing process. Intervenors including the Consumer Advocate and EfficiencyOne provided input, and the Board encouraged NS Power to refine its forecast, particularly the residential model, in light of population growth and housing policies.

1 3.0 FORECASTING APPROACH 2 NS Power continues to use a set of SAE models for the Residential 4 and Commercial 5 3 rate classes, 4 an econometric model for the Small and Medium Indu[str](#page-28-1)ial classes, and [c](#page-28-2)ustomer...

AI summary NS Power uses a combination of SAE models, econometric models, and customer surveys to forecast energy consumption for different customer classes. The SAE model integrates end-use and econometric approaches, incorporating factors like efficiency trends, population changes, and economic conditions.

1 Figure 4: Forecast Approach 2 3

AI summary This section outlines the forecast approach used in the regulatory proceeding, referencing various mechanisms and entities involved in energy and utility management.

21 Original With SWin Difference Energy R2 0.978 0.981 0.003 MAPE 2.57 % 2.42 % -0.15 % Peak R2 0.985 0.985 0.000 MAPE 2.36 % 2.33 % -0.03 % 22

AI summary The text presents a comparison of energy and peak metrics before and after the implementation of SWin, showing slight improvements in R2 values and reductions in MAPE percentages, indicating enhanced accuracy in forecasting models.

15 Figure 42: Comparison of Forecast to Actuals Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Sales 4715 4830 5180 5289 Weather variance -127 -126 -104 - Other variance +263 +230 -12 - Actual Sales 4851 4934 5064 - Weather-adjusted sales 4978 5060 516...

AI summary Figure 42 compares forecasted sales to actual sales from 2022 to 2025, showing discrepancies due to weather variance and other factors. The forecast and actual sales data highlight the impact of external variables on energy sales predictions.

17 As discussed in the 2024 forecast, adjustments were made to heating intensities last year to better - 18 capture the trends seen in 2022 and 2023 that led to high "Other" variances. In 2024 those - 19 adjustments have helped reduce the...

AI summary Adjustments to heating intensities were made in 2024 to better capture trends from 2022 and 2023, reducing 'Other' variances. The COVID-19 variable, introduced in 2020, is still used for 2020-2024 but has been removed from future forecasts as other variables now sufficiently capture the changes in consumption patterns.

1 7.0 INDUSTRIAL AND MUNICIPAL SECTORS 2 3 The forecast models for the Small Industrial and Medium Industrial classes are econometric-based 4 models (i.e. dependent on economic variables). Provincial manufacturing GDP is used as the 5 prim...

AI summary The forecast models for Small and Medium Industrial sectors are econometric-based, using provincial manufacturing GDP and employment data. Monthly sales data is used to align industrial models with residential and commercial models, enabling end-use-based peak forecasting. Supporting data is provided in Attachments 8 and 9.

2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 electricity requirements over the next three-year period. Details on planned production levels or 2 equipment changes help inform expectations on energy sales. In the absence of any survey or 3 general...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report predicts flat load levels over the next three years, with limited customer input indicating slight increases. One major customer is expected to increase load, and 34 GWh of load migration to the RTR market is anticipated by 2027. Uncertainty remains around new industrial facilities and their impact on load growth.

1 11.0 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 2 - 3 The sales and peak forecasts are fundamentally uncertain and depend on many variables, including - 4 economics, weather, adoption of distributed generation, electricity rates and DSM. Although each - 5 of...

AI summary The sensitivity analysis discusses the uncertainty in load forecasts, which are influenced by factors like economics, weather, distributed generation, and DSM. A P10/P90 probability analysis using Monte Carlo simulations was developed in 2017 to estimate future load distribution, showing a range of 480-636 GWh over 10 years, mainly impacted by weather and economic factors.

1 Figure 74: System Energy Sensitivity 2 3 Similarly, a P10/P90 scenario was created for peak demand using a random sampling of weather 4 and economic drivers. The width of the P10/P90 envelope is approximately 256 – 306 MW, 5 reflecting t...

AI summary The text discusses the creation of a P10/P90 scenario for peak demand based on random sampling of weather and economic factors, with a wide variation range of 256 – 306 MW. It also references Figure 75, which includes the latest adjustments to the peak end-use model.

Variable Coefficient StdErr T-Stat P-Value MStructSmlGen.WtXHeat 0.834 0.036 23.354 0.00% MStructSmlGen.WtXCool 0.331 0.043 7.704 0.00% MStructSmlGen.WtXOther 0.745 0.022 33.344 0.00% MBin.Mar 100.517 23.139 4.344 0.00% MBin.Dec -121.561 2...

AI summary The text presents a statistical table from a load forecast report, showing coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values for various variables related to energy usage patterns and forecasting. This data is part of an appendix from a 2025 Load Forecast Report and is marked as confidential.

Small General Model Statistics Model Statistics Iterations 14 Adjusted Observations 120 Deg. of Freedom for 109 Error R-Squared 0.954 Adjusted R-Squared 0.950 AIC 7.605 BIC 7.860 F-Statistic #NA Prob (F-Statistic) #NA Log-Likelihood -615.5...

AI summary The text presents statistical details from a small general model, including metrics such as R-squared, AIC, BIC, and error measures, along with load forecast report information that is partially redacted due to confidentiality.

Variable Coefficient StdErr T-Stat P-Value MBin.Jan 20853.444 1440.731 14.474 0.00% MBin.Feb 20342.822 1439.895 14.128 0.00% MBin.Mar 18241.872 1439.059 12.676 0.00% MBin.Apr 19690.529 1438.223 13.691 0.00% MBin.May 18751.767 1437.387 13.0...

AI summary The document presents a statistical analysis of load forecasting data, including coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values for various variables related to monthly energy usage and economic factors. The table provides insights into the statistical significance of these variables in forecasting energy demand.

Figure C4: Energy Forecast Accuracy Forecast Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Issued 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20...

AI summary The document presents a table showing energy forecast accuracy over several years, with forecast values and percent errors for different years. It also includes statistical measures such as average percent error and MAPE for varying lead times.

Figure C5: Firm Peak Forecast Accuracy Forecast Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Issued 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023...

AI summary The document presents a table comparing forecasted firm peak loads with actual values from 2014 to 2023, along with percentage errors. It also includes statistics on average percent error and MAPE for different lead times, showing how forecast accuracy changes with the time horizon.

Figure C6: System Peak Forecast Accuracy Forecast Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Forecast for: Issued 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20...

AI summary This document presents a table comparing forecasted system peak loads with actual values from 2014 to 2023, along with percent errors and statistical measures like MAPE for different lead times. The data highlights the accuracy of load forecasts over various periods.

Agenda - Summary of Changes from 2024 Forecast - Preliminary Results by Class - Ongoing Work 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 4 of 19 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2026-2027 GRA BW IR-7 Attachment 1 Page 152...

AI summary The document outlines the agenda for a regulatory proceeding, including a summary of changes from the 2024 forecast, preliminary results by class, and ongoing work. It also references a 2025 Load Forecast Report and other attachments, though much of the content is redacted.

Timeline - October 2024: NSUARB Load Forecast Decision released - December 2024 March 2025: Forecast preparation - April 2025: Stakeholder meeting to discuss updates and preliminary results - April 30, 2025: 2025 Load Forecast Report submi...

AI summary The timeline outlines key events related to the Load Forecast process, including the release of the NSUARB Load Forecast Decision in October 2024, preparation of the forecast from December 2024 to March 2025, a stakeholder meeting in April 2025, and the submission of the 2025 Load Forecast Report to the NSEB by April 30, 2025.

COVID Variables - For 2025 the COVID variables have been updated in both the Residential and Commercial classes. - In Residential, the variable remains in the model for the years 2020-2024 to help explain the change in usage over those yea...

AI summary The document discusses updates to the COVID variables in the 2025 Load Forecast Report for residential and commercial classes. The variable remains in the residential model for 2020-2024 but is removed from the forecast period, while it is entirely removed from the commercial model as other variables sufficiently capture the impact.

Forecast Comparison – Industrial • Industrial sales show a decrease in 2026 and 2027 related to forecast RTR sales. 2025 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 15 of 19 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2026-2027 GRA BW IR...

AI summary The industrial sales forecast indicates a decline in 2026 and 2027, linked to forecast RTR sales. The text references appendices and attachments from the 2025 Load Forecast Report, though specific details are redacted.

• Below is an estimate of the major variances between the 2024 forecast and 2024 actuals for both energy and peak. Item GWh 2024 Forecast NSR 11,485 Weather Impact -134 Large Customer Actuals -61 Other Variance 36 2024 Actual NSR 11,326 It...

AI summary The text provides an estimate of the variances between the 2024 forecast and actuals for energy and peak demand. Key factors include weather impact, large customer actuals, and variations in wind and lighting usage.

2026-2027 General Rate Application (M12451) NSPI Responses to Bates White Information Requests 1 covered in the recent arbitration with Nordex. These repairs are scheduled to be completed 2 in 2025 and early 2026. 3 4 (b) The Cape Sharpe T...

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's responses to Bates White Information Requests regarding the 2026-2027 General Rate Application. It details the status of various generation facilities, including decommissioned sites and future wind generation, and explains forecasting methodologies for hydro generation.

Financial Profile 12 mos. ended September 30 For the year ended December 31 (CAD millions where applicable) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Net income before nonrecurring items 134 125 138 131 129 130 Depreciation & amortization 248 242 238...

AI summary The financial profile outlines key financial metrics for the period ending September 30 and December 31 across multiple years, highlighting net income, depreciation, cash flow, capital expenditures, and debt changes. The table includes metrics such as free cash flow, net debt change, and total debt in the capital structure.

2026-2027 GRA Cleary IR-4 Attachment 1 Page 8 of 32 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Don ross nestic oduct vate umption Equi inery & ipment stment ıstrial uction sumer ices ducer ces Ne...

AI summary The document presents economic forecasts from various institutions for the years 2024 and 2025, covering multiple economic indicators such as production, consumption, and wage levels. The data includes average percentage changes for different sectors and regions.

FRANCE A verage % ( Change o n Previous s Calenda r Year Gro Dom Prod estic House Consu Busir Invest Manufad Produ - Consu Pric (INSI es Hou Wage - oduit eur Brut nmation énages Investiss des Entr Produ Manufac Prix of Consom mation Taux d...

AI summary This section presents economic forecasts for France from multiple institutions, including UBS, Goldman Sachs, and the IMF, covering GDP growth, consumption, investment, manufacturing production, and wage trends for the years 2024 and 2025. The data highlights varying expectations across different economic indicators and institutions.

Historical Data % change on previous year 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gross Domestic Product -7.6 6.8 2.6 1.1 Household Consumption -6.5 5.2 3.0 0.9 Business Investment -5.6 10.0 3.0 3.1 Manufacturing Production -11.7 5.4 1.7 1.0 Consumer Prices (...

AI summary The text presents historical economic data from 2020 to 2023, including GDP, consumption, investment, production, prices, wages, unemployment, and government budget balances. The data reflects economic trends and performance across various sectors and indicators.

2026-2027 GRA Cleary IR-4 Attachment 1 Page 12 of 32 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Avera ge % ( Chang e on F Previo us Cal endar Year Consumer Price Index 0.9 2.6 9.1 7.3 Output Prices -1.0 5.2 16.0 3.2

AI summary The table presents data on the Consumer Price Index and Output Prices, showing changes over time with percentages and values. It includes metrics such as average percentage change and previous calendar year figures.

Inflation Eases While Budget Decision Looms A downward revision to Q2 GDP growth, from 0.6% to 0.5% (q-o-q), coincided with ONS revisions revealing a higher Q2 contribution from business investment, as well as strong government spending. H...

AI summary Inflation remains stable at 2.2% (y-o-y) in August, with forecasts suggesting a potential rise. Economic growth in H1 2024 was strong, but recent stagnation in manufacturing and uncertainty around the upcoming budget are affecting confidence. The Prime Minister anticipates a painful budget with tax increases and spending cuts. The Bank of England is monitoring economic slowdown and inflation trends, with expectations of at least one rate cut by year-end.

OCI ſΩ B EF 320 )24 dotto o Lordo sumi Famiglie Investi Fissi ızione striale al Co ezzi nsumo IIC) zi alla uzione Ora uzione arie attuali Economic Forecasters 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 Centro Eur...

AI summary The text presents a table with economic forecasts from various institutions for different years, showing varying growth rates and economic indicators. The data includes GDP, investment, consumption, and other economic metrics forecasted by multiple economic forecasters.

EURO ZONE The EURO ZONE is: Austria, Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia Finland France Harmo Hourly Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Household Govt Industrial Core HICP Gross Gross nised Industrial...

AI summary The text presents economic forecasts for the Euro Zone, including inflation rates, economic indicators, and various economic forecasts from multiple institutions for the years 2024 and 2025. The data includes percentages for different economic categories such as government expenditure, industrial production, and consumer prices.

2026-2027 GRA Cleary IR-4 Attachment 1 Page 20 of 32 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 1 O C ΓC )B Ξ R 20 2 4 ŀ Av erag e % C hange e on F Previo us Ca alenda ar Ye ar A nnua l Tota al , Rates on S urvey Date C vate on- ption Fix...

AI summary The document presents economic forecasts from various entities, including Capital Economics, Rabobank Nederland, and S&P Global Ratings, covering factors such as inflation, GDP growth, and government balance. The data spans multiple years and includes various economic indicators.

NORWAY Averaç ge % Chai nge o n Prev /ious Cale ndar Year Ann Rate s on S urvey / Date Gro Domo Prod (Ma lan estic duct in- Gro Dome Prod (Tot stic uct Co vate on- ption Gro Fix Inve ed est- tu Pro ufac- ring duc- on Cons umer ces 110 ges...

AI summary The table presents economic forecasts for Norway, including GDP growth, consumer prices, and interest rates, with data from various institutions such as Econ Intelligence Unit, Fitch Ratings, and Statistics Norway. It includes projections for 2024 and 2025, along with different economic indicators.

2026-2027 GRA Cleary IR-4 Attachment 1 Page 22 of 32 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) A۱ /erage e % C hang e on Previ ous C alend lar Ye ear / Annua al Tota s on S G ross Но use- G ross Mini ing & С on- Но urly Cur rent neral 3...

AI summary This table presents economic forecasts from various organizations for 2024 and 2025, including metrics such as gross domestic product, inflation rates, and budget balances. The data includes projections from the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, highlighting economic indicators like CPI and budgetary figures.

2026-2027 GRA Cleary IR-4 Attachment 1 Page 24 of 32 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Avera ige % Chan ge on Previ ous ( Calend ar Yea ır Annua al Tota al Rates on S Survey y Date 0 .9 % 0.5 % Gro Domo Prod estic Spo Ev OP, orts...

AI summary The document contains economic forecasts and data from various institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Capital Economics, and HSBC, covering indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rates for different years and regions.

2026-2027 General Rate Application (M12451) NSPI Responses to GT Information Requests 1 Request IR-3: 2 3 Reference: N-3 page 35. 4 5 As noted on page 35, lines 20 to 21, Nova Scotia Power states "Multi-year forecasts of 6 operating costs...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) responds to a request regarding their methods for minimizing uncertainties in multi-year operating cost forecasts. NSPI outlines methods such as bottom-up forecasting, multiple levels of review, and ongoing variance assessment to improve forecast accuracy.

4 6.1.4 Renewable to Retail 5 6 The Renewable to Retail (RtR) electricity market was established in Nova Scotia in 2016 to enable 7 independent licensed retailers to sell renewable energy generated within the Province directly to 8 NS Powe...

AI summary The Renewable to Retail (RtR) market in Nova Scotia, established in 2016, allows independent retailers to sell renewable energy directly to NS Power's customers. Forecasts show a significant increase in energy sales through RtR, aligning with the 2030 Clean Power Plan and Decarbonization Goals. The Board approved an extension of the LRS license deadline to 2026, and several interconnection requests are underway.

DATE FILED: December 20, 2024 Page 40 of 40 1 Request IR-21: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Section 4 Load Forecast 4 5 On page 24 of the application, NS Power notes that its forecast for net energy consumption 6 in the pr...

AI summary The document requests NS Power to provide updated load forecasts and explain discrepancies between various load forecasts for the 2026-2027 GRA proceeding, including differences in assumptions about renewable energy, economic forecasts, and electric vehicle adoption rates.

5 2026 Net System Requirement (GWh) % Difference from GRA Forecast Net System Peak (MW) % Difference from GRA Forecast 2024 Load Forecast 11,306 -0.75% 2,428 -0.41 GRA Load Forecast 11,378 N/A 2,418 N/A 2025 Load Forecast 11,403 0.10% 2,40...

AI summary The document discusses load forecasts and the impact of the Renewable to Retail (RTR) market on net system requirements and peak demand for 2026 and 2027. It includes a request for clarification on why RTR has no impact on peak demand and how load forecasts were adjusted for changes in RTR sales.

11 (e) As explained in part (a), peak demand is forecast independently from RTR energy sales, 12 so changes to RTR energy sales have no impact on the peak demand forecast. 1 Request IR-23: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Se...

AI summary The document discusses discrepancies in load forecast data, specifically reconciling differences in GWh changes between 2024 and 2026, and between 2026 and 2027. The response clarifies that the percentage changes refer to year-over-year forecasts from the GRA, not from the 2024 Load Forecast.

Section 4 of the Community Solar Program Regulations provides "A subscriber must not be charged any additional fees by NSPI or a project owner to participate in the community solar program," and Section 5 provides "A subscriber is billed b...

AI summary Section 4 and 5 of the Community Solar Program Regulations outline billing rules for subscribers. The request IR-32 seeks clarification on costs being moved from OM&G to FAM and inquires about the 2024 test year forecast amounts. It also questions the removal of Tufts Cove Wharf / Buoy Chain Inspection and Maintenance Costs from OM&G forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

- 19 is the same as customer growth, it shows this information below. Company Percentage Change in Reported Number of Customers Idaho Power Company 2.57 Sierra Pacific Power Company 1.62 New Brunswick Power Corporation 1.61 EPCOR Utilities...

AI summary The text discusses customer growth percentages for various utility companies, including Nova Scotia Power, Inc., and references a request and response regarding the adoption of unit flexible operations at NS Power to accommodate variable renewable energy.

1 Request IR-112: 11 compared to 2.9 percent in the U.S. Inflation has remained near these 12 levels for much of 2025. 13 (ii) Inflation in 2021-2023 was well above the historical average in both 14 countries. Inflation has gradually decli...

AI summary The text discusses inflation rates in Canada and the U.S. from 2021-2023, noting that they were above historical averages and have since declined but remain above central bank targets. It also addresses a request regarding the use of U.S. proxy companies in capital analysis and whether they use Canadian proxies in determining their capital structure.

2026-2027 GRA NSEB IR-117 Attachment 1 has been filed electronically. 1 Request IR-118: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 68 of 87 4 5 Page 68 references a December 2024 economic forecast by TD Economic...

AI summary The document discusses the submission of a request (IR-118) regarding economic forecasts and capital projects in Nova Scotia. It questions whether recent economic forecasts and government investments have changed expectations about the province's macroeconomic situation and business investment. The response indicates that the September 2025 economic forecast from TD Economics does not significantly alter the near-term outlook.

4.1.1 GDP Growth and Inflation Figure 1 below shows real GDP growth (%) and total inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (" CPI ") over the 1962 to 2024 period. The graph shows that real GDP growth has generally been in the 2-6%...

AI summary The text discusses real GDP growth and inflation in Canada from 1962 to 2024, highlighting a general range of 2-6% GDP growth, with exceptions during recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic. The average GDP growth declined to 2.3% from 1992 to 2024, coinciding with the Bank of Canada's 2% inflation target implementation. Volatility in GDP growth also decreased during this period.

4.4 The Nova Scotia Economy The Conference Board of Canada ("CB") September 2025 Ontario Five-Year Outlook estimates real GDP growth for Nova Scotia (NS) of 1.3% during 2025, in line with the Bank's 2025 estimate for Canada of 1.3% and the...

AI summary The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Nova Scotia's real GDP growth to be similar to Canada's overall growth, with estimates of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Inflation forecasts for Nova Scotia are also close to Canada's, with estimates ranging from 1.8% to 2.0% between 2025 and 2029.

9 10 Concentric recently documented an identical +0.40% bias of forecasts derived using 11 Consensus data to forecasts for 30-year Canada yields over the 2011-2023 period in the 12 evidence it provided in the 2024 Ontario Energy Board (OEB...

AI summary The document discusses the historical bias in Consensus forecasts of bond yields, citing a 0.40% upward bias in forecasts compared to actual yields from 2011-2023. It also references studies showing that naïve forecasts (using existing rates) outperform economic forecasts. The OEB's deemed long-term debt rate is calculated based on Consensus forecasts, which have consistently overestimated actual rates by 40 basis points since 2010.

2.2 Procedures - Our procedures with respect to NS Power's revenue requirement calculations were focused on the assessment of the - reasonableness and accuracy of the calculation, the reasonableness of the underlying assumptions including...

AI summary The procedures focused on assessing the reasonableness and accuracy of NS Power's revenue requirement calculations, including recalculations and reviews of forecast methodologies and internal consistency of financial schedules from the September 2025 filing.

Forecasting uncertainties The Company noted that it uses the following methods to decrease the uncertainty associated with multi-year forecasting of operating costs: - Bottom-up forecasting involves budgeting labour and other large account...

AI summary NSP employs bottom-up forecasting, multiple levels of review, labour reconciliation, and variance assessment to improve the accuracy of multi-year operating cost forecasts and reduce uncertainties.

5.4 Conclusion We have reviewed taxes including income taxes and grants in lieu of property taxes included in NS Power's 2024 Actuals and 2025 Budget, as well as 2024C, 2026 Forecast, and 2027 Forecast. Our procedures included recalculatin...

AI summary The review of NS Power's tax forecasts for 2026 and 2027 indicates that the amounts are reasonable, with grants in lieu of property taxes being the primary driver. Income taxes are expected to offset a portion of these grants.

Tables Table 1: New wind generation resources modeled in GRA forecast16 Table 2: 2024 Actual Thermal Generation Output vs. Forecasted Output in 2026, 2027 (GWh) 20 Table 3: 2024 Actual Maritime Link Imports vs. Forecasted Imports in 2026,...

AI summary The document includes several tables comparing actual and forecasted energy generation and import data for 2024, 2026, and 2027. These tables are part of a regulatory proceeding related to energy forecasting and resource planning in Nova Scotia.

11 Table 2: 2024 Actual Thermal Generation Output vs. Forecasted Output in 2026, 2027 (GWh) 64 12 2024 2026 Decrease 2027 Decrease Actual Forecast from 2024 Forecast from 2024 (GWh) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) Thermal Output (NSPI Fleet) 6,148 % %...

AI summary Table 2 compares the actual thermal generation output of NSPI in 2024 with forecasted outputs for 2026 and 2027, highlighting the expected decrease in generation over time.

1 Table 6: 2024 Actual Natural Gas-Fired Generator Output vs. Forecasted Amounts in 2026, 2027 (GWh) 72 2 2024 Actual (GWh) 2026 Forecast (GWh) Increase (Decrease) from 2024 (%) 2027 Forecast (GWh) Increase (Decrease) from 2026 (%) Tufts C...

AI summary The table compares the actual 2024 natural gas-fired generator output at Tufts Cove with forecasted outputs for 2026 and 2027. However, the forecasted values for 2026 and 2027 are not provided in the table, leaving the projected increases or decreases unknown.

2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence, DE-03-DE-04, page 24, lines 16-18. 1 Q. Was the load forecast contained in the Application reviewed and approved by the 2 Board? 3 No. However, the 2024 Load Forecast was approved by the Board, and the GRA Fo...

AI summary The GRA Forecast was derived from the 2024 Load Forecast, which was approved by the Board in matter M11689. NSPI completed a more recent 2025 Load Forecast Report but will not use it for the 2026 and 2027 GRA, as the rates were based on a consensus agreement from 2024 and early 2025.

Response to NSPI (BW) IR-7 (a). 1 Q. What is your view of NSPI's decision to use the September 2024 GRA Forecast? 2 A. NSPI's decision to use the September 2024 GRA Forecast is reasonable. The GRA 3 Forecast uses the same methodology as th...

AI summary The response to NSPI's use of the September 2024 GRA Forecast is deemed reasonable. While the 2025 Load Forecast is more updated, it only differs from the GRA Forecast by less than 1%, so updating rates may not be necessary. The use of the GRA Forecast is justified, and major changes in the forecast would warrant an update.

3. Validation of Sales Forecasts The Company analyzes summary data through statistical tests to determine whether the econometric models used to develop its sales delivery and customer forecasts fit the data sets and generalize well. Id.,...

AI summary The Company uses statistical tests, including R-squared and MAPE, to validate its econometric models for sales delivery and customer forecasts. Results indicate a strong fit for residential, commercial, and industrial classes, with R-squared values above 0.85 and MAPE values suggesting model accuracy.

Table 78: MAPE Test of Forecast, Customers Customers MAPE 2-year Post MAPE Residential 0.11% 0.11% Commercial 0.24% 0.45% Industrial 0.48% 0.36% Streetlight 0.28% 0.23% Application, Ex. UI-MP-3, p. 1.

AI summary Table 78 presents the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) test results for customer forecasts, comparing residential, commercial, industrial, and streetlight customers across two time periods. The data shows varying levels of forecast accuracy for different customer categories.

Table 79: MAPE Test of Forecast, Sales Delivery Customers MAPE 2-year Post MAPE Residential 2.84% 3.97% Commercial 3.08% 3.76% Industrial 0.30% 0.25% Streetlight 116 - - 114 UI also described the MAPE as the "Average Absolute Value of the...

AI summary The document presents Table 79, which shows the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for forecast accuracy across residential, commercial, and industrial customers, as well as streetlight usage. UI explained the MAPE calculation and performed Ex Post forecast tests to evaluate model accuracy. No MAPE analysis was conducted for streetlight customers.

The Company provided additional MAPE results for the 2024 forecast that ranged from 0.28% to 5.75% for the billed sales usage and 0.25% to 0.70% for the customer forecast. Interrog. Resp. RRU-11, Att. 1. The Authority finds the Company's s...

AI summary The Company provided MAPE results for the 2024 forecast, which the Authority found reasonable. Revenue decoupling minimizes the risk of misstating unit rates, allowing adjustments to be recovered or returned to ratepayers. The Authority accepts the sales forecast without adjustments.

1 Q. IN THE EVENT THE BOARD WERE TO CONSIDER RECOGNITION OF FUTURE 2 INFLATION, WOULD GANNETT FLEMING'S PROPOSED 3.4% ANNUAL LEVEL 3 BE APPROPRIATE? 4 A. No, for several reasons. First, currently the world economy is much more integrated 5...

AI summary The witness argues that Gannett Fleming's proposed 3.4% annual inflation rate is inappropriate, citing the current global economic integration and the rapid increase in raw material prices, such as copper, which have risen over 1000% in recent years. This rate does not adequately account for the impact of inflation on net salvage values for production facilities.

ge_6_Figure_7.jpeg) But when we looked ahead, we saw reasons to believe that underlying inflation would ease. For example, rental markets are softening, which should help keep inflation in prices for shelter services on a downward trend. A...

AI summary The text discusses the assessment of underlying inflation, noting that factors such as softening rental markets and normalized input costs may lead to a decrease in inflation. It emphasizes that multiple indicators are considered beyond core inflation measures when evaluating underlying inflation.

Can we improve our existing measures of core inflation? I hope I've established by now that measures of core inflation are not the whole story, but they are an important element. With this in mind, we're asking ourselves if there are ways...

AI summary The text discusses challenges with core inflation measures, particularly the impact of mortgage interest costs on inflation readings. It highlights that while some measures exclude mortgage costs, their persistent exclusion can limit the effectiveness of core inflation indicators. The discussion considers revising measures to pre-exclude mortgage interest costs for better accuracy.

What methodology should be adopted? The 2003 Working Group was advised that considerable work was done by the former Ontario Hydro to create a weather normalization model for load forecasting purposes. The model was not initially developed...

AI summary The document discusses the adoption of a weather normalization methodology for load forecasting, referencing past work by Ontario Hydro and its continued use by some distributors. It suggests using this methodology as a starting point for discussion but emphasizes the need for review, especially considering differences between the electricity and natural gas sectors.

Annual Filing Requirements for Base Cost of Fuel Forecast For each year in which NS Power applies to adjust the Base Cost of Fuel, a load forecast, Base Cost of Fuel and net system requirement forecast filing for the upcoming FAM year (Jan...

AI summary NS Power must submit annual filings for the Base Cost of Fuel forecast, using standardized methods and templates as outlined in Board orders. The Board considers these filings and stakeholder comments when determining the Base Cost of Fuel for the upcoming year.

[50] In its response to Bates White IR-10, NS Power stated that it is forecasting a FAM liability of $10.2 million at the end of 2026 and $0.8 million at the end of 2027. NS Power also stated that at its weighted average cost of capital (W...

AI summary NS Power provided forecasts of its FAM liability and interest expenses for 2026 and 2027. Bates White noted that while NS Power used reasonable publicly available forecasts, they were dated and based on data from November 2024 and March 2025. The forecasts were run using the PLEXOS model.

Q. So in this case, it refers to Appendix 5A and it says: On page 34 of Appendix 5A, the application states that NSPML's forecast assessments for the Maritime Link against Nova Scotia Power are $200.5 million in 2026 and $203.9 million in...

AI summary The document discusses discrepancies between projected and actual assessments for the Nova Scotia Power Maritime Link (NSPML) under the Federal Loan Guarantee (FLG). The 2026 assessment was reduced by $1.8 million, primarily due to a $1.8 million decrease in FLG costs, with similar reductions expected in 2027. The speaker questions whether adjustments should be made to the base cost of fuel based on these differences.

resulting in more use of the procedure. He also noted that ELG is currently used in Alberta and Newfoundland. His evidence also indicated that ALG is used by Maritime Electric in Prince Edward Island. [204] For this GRA, NS Power submitted...

AI summary NS Power advocates for the use of ELG (Equal Group Life) over ALG (Average Group Life) in rate base calculations, arguing it reduces financing costs more quickly. The Board will evaluate ELG/ALG methodology differences and intergenerational equity. NS Power has used ELG for over 30 years, citing real retirement data. Maritime Electric uses ALG in Prince Edward Island.

it does look to me that it's not a great fit after year 30 or so. So my question was, you know, in this particular case, why do you think that 45-R1.5 is better than the one that Mr. Madsen suggested? A. (Wiedmayer) Okay. Yeah, so here's a...

AI summary The discussion centers on asset retirement service life estimates for Nova Scotia, comparing a 45-R1.5 recommendation to Mr. Madsen's 50-year proposal. The expert argues that historical data and factors like tropical storms justify a shorter service life (41-42 years) than industry-based recommendations, with the 45-R1.5 being a better fit than Mr. Madsen's 50-year model.

hearing testimony: BY MEMBER MURPHY: … this is the curve that I walked through with Mr. Wiedmayer the other day, and this is for account 355. And Nova Scotia Power is recommending using the Iowa 45-R1.5 curve, and I think you were recommen...

AI summary Member Murphy discusses discrepancies between simulated and actual retirement data for Nova Scotia Power's account 355 (poles and fixtures). Madsen argues that the Iowa 50-R2.5 curve is a worse fit for simulated data compared to the Iowa 45-R1.5 curve, but recommends a 41-R1 curve based on actual aged data from Newfoundland Power, which shows different trends than simulated data.

3.6.1.1 Findings [367] NS Power's estimated capital investment for the GRA test period amounts to $671.3 million in 2026 and $556.1 million in 2027. The capital additions to rate base for the test period have generally been approved by the...

AI summary NS Power's capital investment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are reviewed, with most projects approved by the Board. Discrepancies between GRA and ACE Plan projects are attributed to timing and asset management updates. The Board finds the total forecast spending reasonable, noting NS Power will align its capital program with the GRA forecast.

3.7.2.1 Return on Equity [453] Determining a fair return on equity generally entails the use of several wellestablished financial models. These include, but are not limited to, the discounted cash flow (DCF) model; the capital asset pricin...

AI summary The document discusses methodologies for determining a fair return on equity (ROE) for Nova Scotia Power (NSP), including DCF, CAPM, and risk premium models. A consensus agreement sets NSP's ROE at 9% with an 8.75%-9.25% earnings band and retains a 40% equity thickness. Concentric Energy Advisors' analysis, using market data up to February 2025, supports these figures.

y Canadian CFOs, as mentioned earlier. Thus, the BYPRP approach accounts for interactions between company debt costs and equity markets, and as such it is intuitively sound. [Exhibit N-32, pp. 74-75] [516] Dr. Cleary gives equal weighting...

AI summary The analysis discusses Dr. Cleary's use of three equally weighted approaches to estimate allowed Canadian equity returns. Concentric emphasizes that no single model can precisely determine ROE, advocating for multiple methodologies and informed judgment. Other Canadian regulators (BCUC, OEB, AUC) also endorse using multiple approaches for determining fair ROE.

provided information about the engagement process it followed in developing the cost-of-service proposals it has put forward for approval. NS Power's summary of this process in its application stated: Throughout 2024, technical conferences...

AI summary NS Power detailed its engagement process for developing cost-of-service proposals, including technical conferences, Resolution Sessions mediated by Bruce Outhouse (KC), and extensive data exchanges. 67 models, 152 data requests, and supporting documents were compiled as appendices. The process aimed to streamline discussions under the General Rate Application (GRA) and received stakeholder approval for its transparency and information sharing.

3.8.3.1 Findings [616] As with the discussion about the use of the minimum system method or the basic customer method, the Board finds that a more satisfactory resolution of this issue would result from a broader debate about this issue. T...

AI summary The Board emphasizes the need for a comprehensive analysis of distribution system cost classification, beyond jurisdictional scans. Key issues include how customer classes use the primary distribution system, residential service at primary voltages, and system demand relative to peak capacity. The Board directs these matters to be addressed in the engagement process.

the absence of a specific calculation, recommended that each customer class be credited with 1.5 kW/customer to the non-coincidental peak demands used for determining minimum system demand allocators. [620] Based on her pre-filed evidence...

AI summary Ms. Palmer recommended a 1.5 kW/customer proxy for non-coincidental peak demand credits until NS Power provides a more accurate peak load carrying capability adjustment. She cited examples from Ontario, Minnesota/South Dakota, and New York State, positioning 1.5 kW as a middle-ground approximation.

4.1 Demand Side Management Cost Recovery Rider [686] In this GRA, NS Power proposed changes to the methodology for calculating the Balance Adjustment (BA) but did not propose changes to the Demand Side Management (DSM) rider amounts for 20...

AI summary NS Power proposed changes to the Balance Adjustment (BA) methodology without altering DSM rider amounts for 2026/2027. It filed a DCRR application (M12521) for 2026 DSM expenses, with the Board approving continuation of 2025 DCRR charges until further order. The 2026 DSM expenditure was set at $63.75M by legislation, with assumptions extended to 2027. NS Power argued that extending end-of-term variance recovery periods would reduce rate volatility and align with new five-year DSM planning terms.

as required by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) requirements. It explained the changes to the coal plant retirement timelines: (a) The retirement assumption for Ling...

AI summary The retirement timelines for Lingan Unit 2 and Trenton Unit 5 were extended to 2027 due to updated load forecasts and system outlooks. Lingan 2's extension followed a 108 MW increase in 2024 firm peak load, requiring its operation until replacement capacity from IESO-NS is online. Trenton 5's 2027 retirement date was confirmed by the 2023 Evergreen IRP and further detailed in the 2024 DDA report, delaying decommissioning until after 2029.

RE: M12451 – 2026 General Rate Application SWEB Development is a developer, owner, and operator of renewable energy projects throughout Eastern Canada, headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The M12451 Preliminary Issues List supplied by t...

AI summary SWEB Development, a renewable energy company based in Halifax, Nova Scotia, is requesting intervenor status in the M12451 – 2026 General Rate Application proceeding. The company is concerned with several issues, including fuel and purchased power costs, rate base, load forecasting, rate design, and climate change studies, which may affect its operations in Nova Scotia.

RE: M12451 – 2026 General Rate Application SWEB Development is a developer, owner, and operator of renewable energy projects throughout Eastern Canada, headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The M12451 Preliminary Issues List supplied by t...

AI summary SWEB Development, a renewable energy project developer based in Halifax, Nova Scotia, is requesting intervenor status in the M12451 – 2026 General Rate Application proceeding. They highlight topics such as Fuel and Purchased Power Costs, Rate Base, Load Forecasting, Rate Design, and Climate Change Studies as relevant to their business operations.

Support for GRA Outcomes NS Power's references to the "universal support" it has from all customer representatives must necessarily be understood to be limited to the parties it identified in its application who participated in its collabo...

AI summary NS Power claims broad support for its GRA outcomes from customer representatives, but the Board notes this applies only to parties involved in its collaborative process. Other intervenors, including SWEB Development and Renewall Energy Inc., have raised concerns about issues like fuel costs, rate design, and climate studies. At least 10 intervenors remain undecided, with some highlighting preliminary issues outlined in M12451.

- 2. NS Power submitted that matters relating to its rate base did not warrant further evidence in the hearing of this matter because of the settlement agreement and the fact that it receives approvals for capital additions to its rate bas...

AI summary NS Power argues that its rate base and capital additions require no further evidence due to a settlement agreement and approvals under the Public Utilities Act. It contends that its 2024 load forecast, previously reviewed by the Utility and Review Board, is sufficient for rate-setting. The Five-Year Reliability Plan, already under assessment in proceeding M12012, is deemed redundant to re-evaluate during the GRA test period.

Request IR-5: Please provide the same information requested in IR-3 and IR4 based on the Average Life Group procedure. Please separately state all assumptions made in the derivation of the Average Life Group amounts, including but not limi...

AI summary Request IR-5 asks for information similar to IR-3 and IR-4, based on the Average Life Group procedure. It requires explicit assumptions about reserve surplus/deficiency and changes made by Gannett Fleming in deriving Average Life Group amounts.

Request IR-7: Please revise all calculations performed by Gannett Fleming in Section IX of the depreciation study to reflect the Average Life Group procedure and the remaining life technique. As part of the calculation, please also include...

AI summary Request IR-7 asks Gannett Fleming to revise depreciation study calculations in Section IX using the Average Life Group procedure and remaining life technique, recalculate net salvage for each account, and disclose assumptions related to amortization differences between calculated and book accumulated depreciation reserves.

Request IR-36: - Please prepare a detailed reconciliation demonstrating how all costs proposed to be included in - the GRA and COSS deferral have been removed from the forecast costs included in the - application for 2026 and 2027.

AI summary Request IR-36 asks for a detailed reconciliation to confirm that all costs associated with the GRA and COSS deferral have been excluded from the 2026 and 2027 forecast costs submitted in the application.

Request IR-1: References: On page 69 (lines 1-2) of the NS Power General Rate (GRA) Application, NS Power: forecasts that the S&P and DBRS metrics would deteriorate and be below the minimum 10 percent cash flow to debt threshold by 2027.

AI summary NS Power forecasts that S&P and DBRS credit metrics will fall below the 10% cash flow to debt threshold by 2027, as stated in the GRA Application. This projection raises concerns about the company's financial stability and debt servicing capacity.

References: (A) On page 45 (footnote 44) of Appendix 10-A, Concentric refers to the following source for the "forecast" data for "Long-Term Forecast for 10-Year Government Bond Yields" for Government of Canada bonds that is used to prepare...

AI summary Concentric references Consensus Economics Inc.'s forecast data for Canadian government bond yields and confirms details about the OEB's deemed long-term debt rate. It states that actual rates have exceeded the OEB's deemed rate by 40 basis points since 2010, aligning with Dr. Cleary's findings. The OEB proceeding EB-2024-0063 is cited.

Question: - (a) Please provide the source Consensus Forecast document used to provide the figures, which are reported in Figure 20 (page 45) of Appendix 10A. - (b) Given the upward bias of +0.40% confirmed in Concentric's 2024 OEB evidence...

AI summary The document requests the source of a Consensus Forecast document used in Figure 20 (page 45) of Appendix 10A. It also questions Concentric's reliance on 10-year yield forecasts and estimated 30-year spreads, given an upward bias of +0.40% in deemed long-term debt rates, as per Concentric's 2024 OEB evidence.

Request IR-6: References: Direct Evidence p. 68: "However, this forecast assumes approval of the rates requested in this Application and a successful securitization of the net book value of the thermal assets. Absent an increase in general...

AI summary NS Power forecasts that failure to secure rate increases and securitize thermal assets may cause its credit ratings to deteriorate below the 10% cash flow to debt threshold by 2027, impacting access to capital and increasing borrowing costs. The request asks for specific financial statement line items affected by credit rating deterioration and commentary linking past threshold breaches (2022-2023) to current credit ratings.

Request IR-2: - Reference: General - Please explain assumptions used in forecasting labour costs for both union and non union - employees. Provide a copy of the internal labour forecast study produced which forecasts labour - in 2026 to 20...

AI summary Request IR-2 seeks explanations of assumptions in forecasting labour costs for union and non-union employees, including wage increases and full-time equivalent (FTE) forecasting, and requests a copy of the internal labour forecast study for 2026-2027.

Request IR-3: - Reference: N-3 page 35 - As noted on page 35, lines 20 to 21, Nova Scotia Power states "Multi-year forecasts of operating - costs are inherently uncertain. Many factors can affect NS Power's operating costs from year to - y...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) is asked to explain methods used in their multi-year operating cost forecasts to address uncertainties, as noted in Reference N-3, page 35, lines 20-21. The request highlights the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and seeks clarification on mitigation strategies.

Request IR-7: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 5-6 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 5-6 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - actual results for "General Counsel, Corporate Secreta...

AI summary The request seeks a breakdown of litigation costs under 'General Counsel, Corporate Secretary, and Insurance' attributed to ongoing CRA litigation, noting that the 2026 forecast exceeds 2024 actuals.

Request IR-10: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 5-6 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 5-6 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2025 - budget for "General Counsel, Corporate Secretary, and...

AI summary The request seeks justification for increased labor costs in the 'General Counsel, Corporate Secretary, and Insurance' department for 2026 compared to 2025, citing staff complement changes and salary escalations. Evidence supporting these changes and the rationale for salary increases is requested.

Request IR-11: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 9-10 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 9-10 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - compliance restated and 2024 actuals for "communica...

AI summary The request seeks evidence supporting the 2026 forecast for 'communications and public affairs' being higher than 2024 actuals due to staff complement changes and salary escalations.

Request IR-12: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 9-10 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 9-10 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - compliance restated for "communications and public...

AI summary Request IR-12 references N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C, noting the 2026 forecast exceeds 2024. It requests justification for increased 'communications and public affairs' consulting fees and details on planned engagements.

Request IR-14: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 11-12 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 11-12 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - compliance restated and 2024 actuals for "human r...

AI summary The request seeks evidence supporting increased staffing levels and salary escalations in human resources, which are cited as reasons for a higher 2026 forecast compared to 2024 compliance restated figures.

Request IR-15: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 11-12 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 11-12 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - compliance restated and 2024 actuals for "human r...

AI summary The request highlights a higher 2026 forecast compared to 2024, noting increased consulting costs under 'human resources' due to Health and Wellness Safety engagements. It seeks a detailed breakdown of these planned engagements and their associated costs.

Request IR-16: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 11-12 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 11-12 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is higher than 2024 - compliance restated and 2024 actuals for "human r...

AI summary The document references N-6, noting that the 2026 forecast for 'human resources' as corporate support transfer is higher than 2024 actuals, with a question about why increased utilization of Human Resource services is expected.

Request IR-17: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 13-14 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 13-14 of 58, we understand that 2026 forecast is lower than 2024 - actuals for "facilities, procurement and security"...

AI summary The request seeks clarification on the decrease in consulting fees for 'facilities, procurement and security' in 2024, which led to a lower 2026 forecast. It asks for details on the nature of the completed consulting engagements, their associated costs, and the reasons for their discontinuation.

Request IR-20: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 17-18 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 17-18 of 58, we understand that consulting expense has increased - in 2026 forecast compared to 2024 compliance resta...

AI summary Request IR-20 seeks clarification on increased consulting expenses in 2026, attributing the rise to cybersecurity support, IT tool enhancements (Tableau/Power BI), and inflation. The request asks for a breakdown, whether the increase is temporary or permanent, and the rationale.

Request IR-21: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 17-18 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 17-18 of 58, we understand that rental/maintenance equipment/ - software expense has increased in 2026 forecast compa...

AI summary The document requests clarification on the increase in rental/maintenance equipment/software expenses in 2026, attributed to the cyber security program and inflation, and seeks a detailed breakdown of these costs.

Request IR-27: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 23-24 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 23-24 of 58, we understand that rental and maintenance of - equipment expenses have increased from 2024 compliance re...

AI summary Request IR-27 seeks clarification on increased rental and maintenance expenses for thermal plants from 2024 to 2026, attributed to changes in operating requirements, as outlined in Appendix 7C of N-6. The request asks for detailed explanations and associated cost breakdowns.

Request IR-32: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 33-34 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 33-34 of 58, we understand that contracts expense has increased - from 2024 compliance restated to 2026 forecast for...

AI summary The document references N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C, pages 33-34, noting an increase in contracts expense for 'Enterprise asset management & project implementation' from 2024 to 2026 due to operational changes and inflation. It requests detailed cost information on these changes.

Request IR-34: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 37-38 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 37-38 of 58, we understand that labour expense and contract - expense has increased from 2024 compliance restated to...

AI summary Request IR-34 seeks details on increased labour and contract costs for regional operations from 2024 to 2026, citing factors like customer growth and salary escalation, and asks about the forecasting methodology used by NSPI.

Request IR-42: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 43-44 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 43-44 of 58, we understand that consulting expense and - membership dues expense has increased from 2024 compliance r...

AI summary The request seeks an explanation for increased consulting and membership dues expenses in the 2026 forecast compared to 2024, attributed to 'reliability implementation' and reallocation from contracts related to standards and community engagement.

Request IR-48: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 51-52 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 51-52 of 58, we understand that labour expense has increased - from 2024 compliance restated, 2024 actual, and 2025 b...

AI summary The text requests evidence of customer growth and rationale for salary escalation in customer service labor expenses, as part of the 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C.

Request IR-50: - Reference: N-6 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence Appendix 7C Page 51-52 of 58 - Per N-6, (Appendix 7C), page 51-52 of 58, we understand that write-offs have decreased from - 2024 compliance restated and 2024 actual to 2026 for...

AI summary The document requests supporting calculations for decreased write-offs in 'customer service' from 2024 to 2026 forecasts, noting changes in bad debt expense tied to historical activity and revenue forecasts. The analysis focuses on financial forecasting and bad debt expense adjustments.

Request IR-59: - Reference: General - Please provide support and NSPI's analysis for FTEs for 2024 actual to 2027 forecast.

AI summary Request IR-59 seeks support and analysis from NSPI regarding Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) numbers, covering 2024 actuals through 2027 forecasts. The request focuses on workforce planning and operational staffing requirements for the specified period.

Request IR-86: - Reference: FO-14 - With regards to FO-14: Average Rate Base Supporting Schedule Allowance for Materials & - Supplies, average fuel inventory is expected to increase from 2025 Forecast to 2026 Proposed - Forecast, then decr...

AI summary The document requests an explanation for the projected changes in average fuel inventory from 2025 to 2027 under FO-14, including the underlying assumptions for the forecasted increase from 2025 to 2026 and subsequent decrease in 2027.

Request IR-87: - Reference: FO-14 - With regards to FO-14: Average Rate Base Supporting Schedule Allowance for Materials & - Supplies, average materials inventory is expected to increase from 2025 Forecast to 2026 - Proposed Forecast. What...

AI summary The document requests an explanation for the increase in average materials inventory forecast from 2025 to 2026 under FO-14, related to the average rate base supporting schedule allowance for materials and supplies.

LOAD FORECAST

AI summary The document section titled 'LOAD FORECAST' is part of a Nova Scotia regulatory proceeding involving Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power). No further details or arguments are provided in the excerpt.

Request IR-21: - Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Section 4 Load Forecast - On page 24 of the application, NS Power notes that its forecast for net energy consumption in the - province over the two-year test period was produced...

AI summary NS Power is being asked to provide an updated version of a load forecast figure, explain why the 2025 Load Forecast was not used, and compare different forecasts regarding renewable energy, electric vehicle adoption, and solar uptake for the 2026-2027 GRA proceeding.

Request IR-23: - Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Section 4 Load Forecast - On page 25, NS Power stated that compared to the 2024 Load Forecast, sales increased 86 GWh - in 2026 and decreased 36 GWh in 2027. However, it also sta...

AI summary NS Power reported conflicting figures in its load forecast, stating an 86 GWh increase in 2026 sales but a -1.4% year-over-year decline, and a 36 GWh decrease in 2027 sales versus an 81 GWh drop mentioned earlier. The request seeks reconciliation of these discrepancies.

Request IR-24: - Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Section 4 Load Forecast - On page 26, NS Power noted that the four OATT MEUs will be taking a portion of their load - through the Municipal Tariff so load adjustments were made f...

AI summary NS Power adjusted load for the Municipal class and BUTU due to four OATT MEUs taking load via the Municipal Tariff. The inquiry seeks to understand the impact of these adjustments on peak demand and total energy in 2026 and 2027.

Request IR-65: - Reference: Exhibit N-6(ii), Tufts Cove and Combustion Turbines - The explanation for the increase in materials expense is that it is due to increased pricing and increased running hours. - a) Why is there such a significan...

AI summary The document addresses a 75% increase in materials expense forecast for 2026 compared to 2024 compliance restated, questioning the rationale and the projected increase in running hours from 2023 to 2026.

Request IR-68: - Reference: Exhibit N-6(ii), Storm - The 2026 forecast for labour in this category is significantly higher than the 2024 actual, but in- - line with the 2024 compliance restated. - a) Did NS Power reduce its FTEs in this ca...

AI summary Request IR-68 questions NS Power about 2024 FTE reductions, storm cost tracking methods, and whether separate accounts are used for level 3/4 storms. Concerns include potential inefficiencies in manual data extraction for storm rider costs.

Request IR-74: - Reference: Exhibit N-14, OP-03, Attachment 1, ScottMadden Report, p. 28 of 87, Transmission - and Distribution Metrics - The report notes: NSPI widened its positive gap in the Distribution OM&G metrics through 2021, - but...

AI summary NSPI's Distribution OM&G expenses grew faster than peers since 2021 due to increased storm costs, customer growth, reliability investments, and customer-requested work. The report asks ScottMadden if similar data exists for peer utilities.

Request IR-97: - Reference: Exhibit N-3, GRA Direct Evidence - On page 61 of the application, NS Power states that since the Maritime Link transmission projects - have met the Board's threshold test, the transmission assets are forecast in...

AI summary NS Power asserts that Maritime Link transmission projects meeting the Board's threshold test justify forecasting transmission assets at their net book value in the GRA. The request seeks a continuity schedule detailing the opening rate base amount for inclusion in the GRA forecast starting January 1, 2026.

Request IR-111: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 16 of 87 - Concentric refers to Canada's GDP growth increasing in Quarters 2 to 4 throughout 2024. Please - update Figure 2 with Canada's GDP growth to Q2...

AI summary The text references Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, page 16 of the Cost of Capital Report, requesting an update to Figure 2 with Canada's GDP growth data for Q2 2025.

Request IR-113: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 18 of 87 - Concentric states "For many years, consumer prices in Canada increased by less than 2.0 percent." Please state the years before 2021 that Conce...

AI summary Request IR-113 seeks clarification on Canada's inflation trends, the Bank of Canada's target range (1-3%), and CPI comparisons with the U.S. It questions whether historical inflation (pre-2021) and recent figures (2023-2025) align with targets, challenges a statement about inflation being 'above target,' and requests confirmation of CPI stability.

Request IR-114: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 32 of 87 - Concentric's capital analysis concludes that Canada and the U.S. are comparable in terms of - macroeconomic and investment environments and the...

AI summary Request IR-114 questions whether U.S. proxy companies used Canadian proxies in their capital structure analysis, referencing Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 32 of 87. It seeks clarification on specific utilities and Canadian proxies if any.

Request IR-118: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, Cost of Capital Report, page 68 of 87 - Page 68 references a December 2024 economic forecast by TD Economics and the Conference - Board of Canada forecast from April 2024. - a) On Sep...

AI summary The document questions whether updated economic forecasts and recent government investments in healthcare, housing, and offshore wind projects alter Concentric's expectations about Nova Scotia's macroeconomic conditions and business investment outlook. TD Economics and the Conference Board of Canada's forecasts are contrasted with new developments, including the Nova Scotia and Federal Governments' capital plans.

Request IR-120: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 10A, CEA exhibits EO, CEA-2 Macroeconomic worksheet - a) Real GDP Growth for Canada 2024 as 1.52808110779434 from Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0104-01 Gross domestic product, expenditure-...

AI summary The document outlines a request (IR-120) seeking confirmation of Canada's Real GDP growth (2024), CPI change (2014), and export data calculations. It references Statistics Canada data and asks for verification of seasonally adjusted figures and specific economic metrics.

Request IR-122: - Reference: Exhibit N-3, GRA Direct Evidence - On pages 68-69 of the application, NS Power states that it forecasts to be above the 10% FFO- - to-Debt requirement to maintain its current credit ratings, assuming approval o...

AI summary NS Power claims its FFO-to-Debt ratio will remain above 10% if the proposed rates and thermal asset securitization are approved, but projects it would fall below 10% by 2027 without securitization, citing figures 10-2 and 10-3.

Request IR-134: - Reference: Exhibit N-3 GRA Direct Evidence, Section 13 Rate Design - On page 81, NS Power stated: If the customer charges were to be set directly based on changes in the customer-related costs from the 2026-2027 COSS, the...

AI summary NS Power's explanation for a 50% increase in customer charges in 2026 and a single-digit increase in 2027 under the GRA Direct Evidence, Section 13 Rate Design.

Request IR-151: - Reference: Exhibit N-8, Appendix 13C - NS Power provides the following details for 2024: - Approximate number of opt-out customers is 18,140; - Approximate number of completed manual meter readings is 100,000; - Approxima...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 data shows discrepancies with its 2025 cost projections, including lower opt-out customers and manual meter readings. The regulator requests an explanation for these differences.

Request IR-7: - 2026-2027 GRA Direct Evidence, DE-03-DE-04, section 4; SR-02 Attachment 1. - a) The load forecast provided for use in the 2026-2027 GRA is dated April 30, 2024. NSPI has since completed its 2025 Load Forecast. Is NSPI plann...

AI summary The document contains questions regarding the 2025 load forecast, potential FAM rate mismatches, RTR market data, and EV impacts. NSPI is asked to explain its use of updated forecasts, address discrepancies in FAM rates, and provide detailed data.

Request IR-12: - 2026-2027 GRA OE-01A Att 1 CONF; 2026-2027 GRA OE-01A Att 2 CONF; 2026-2027 GRA SR-03. - a) Please provide all commodity price forecasts relied upon to develop the fuel and purchased power costs in the GRA. - b) Please pro...

AI summary Request IR-12 seeks detailed data on fuel costs, consumption, transportation, and technical specifications for NS Power's generating units, including solid fuels, natural gas, biomass, and additives. The request emphasizes transparency in fuel forecasts, transportation costs, and technical assumptions for the 2026-2027 period.

Request IR-13: - Exhibit N-14(C), 2026-2027 GRA OP 01-15 PCON.pdf, OP-04 Attachment 1. For each of NS - Power's listed generating units, please provide in Excel tabular format and by generating unit - (not by plant): - a) The forecasted ho...

AI summary Request IR-13 seeks detailed operational data from NS Power for 2026-2027, including hourly output, availability factors, and outage hours (planned, maintenance, forced) for each generating unit, formatted in Excel tables.

Request IR-15: - 2026-2027 GRA OE-01A Att 1 CONF; 2026-2027 GRA OE-01A Att 2 CONF. - Regarding the Maritime Link and Muskrat Falls: - a) Please provide the monthly forecast of NS Base Block energy used in developing the FAM/BCF rates for t...

AI summary Request IR-15 seeks detailed data on energy forecasts, price averages, and cost decreases for 2026-2027, focusing on FAM/BCF rates. It includes requests for tabular data on Base Block, Supplemental Block, Surplus Energy, and non-Maritime Link imports, along with explanations for NSPI's projected cost reductions in specific line items.

sic customer method. Switching to a basic customer method to determine cost of service, as recommended in a recent decision in Connecticut (Exhibit N-44), could reduce the increase faced by customers. As the Board is aware, this applicatio...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power seeks an 8% rate increase over two years, but stakeholders argue that serial increases burden customers. The Board is urged to adopt multi-year rate structures, citing Section 64A(2B) of the Public Utilities Act. Evidence shows customer financial strain, including arrears and disconnections, following prior rate hikes and storm recovery charges.

2. FAM Forecast and Process REI inquired during the Hearing about the accuracy of the FAM forecast. NSPI confirmed in person as well as in their submission that no changes to the forecasting methodology or process are being contemplated su...

AI summary REI questioned the accuracy of the FAM forecast during the hearing. NSPI confirmed in their submission and verbally that no changes to the forecasting methodology or process are planned.

i. FAM Forecast accuracy and process REI submits that increased accuracy in fuel forecasts is not only beneficial for NSP customers, as interest on fuel cost deferrals is avoided, but also essential for encouraging competition in Nova Scot...

AI summary REI argues that NSP's inaccurate FAM forecasts have caused persistent deficits, unfair market conditions, and requests improved forecasting and adherence to FAM POA. They cite the Energy and Regulatory Board Act and reference M12551, highlighting structural biases in forecasting and impacts on competition.

similar (but smaller) rate impact would apply to these classes if a 1.5 kW per customer credit were applied to the NCP demand used for determining the Minimum System demand allocators.[31](#page-7-2) The Board has been clear that rate impa...

AI summary The Board argues against modifying the COSS allocation methodology, citing disproportionate impacts on rate classes. It emphasizes considering all-in bill effects and notes that the Minimum System issue was intentionally reserved for a 2026 proceeding. Modifications would benefit residential classes but burden others, with incomplete data making changes premature.

, page 33 line 13. Exhibit N-35, Evidence of Bates White Economic Consulting, December 2, 2025, page 36, line 3. Transcript, January 9, 2026, PDF page 59/300, lines 1-12.

AI summary NS Power forecasts OM&G expenses of $351.8M (2026) and $357.9M (2027), representing 18% of revenue. This reflects a $24M increase (3.5% CAGR) from 2024, driven by factors outlined in Appendix 7A. NS Power cites a robust forecasting process, including a labour vacancy adjustment reducing revenue requirements by $5.7M annually, and a ScottMadden benchmarking study showing costs align with peer utilities.

cost causation principles.[72](#page-36-3) In Undertaking 5, NS Power provided a calculation implementing a methodology that alters the principled results of the COSS and the agreement reached by customer advocates. In that calculation, as...

AI summary The document discusses the potential impact on the GRA if PHP remains below-the-line in 2027, explaining that NS Power will ensure an appropriate arrangement post-ELIADC Tariff expiration. If PHP does not adopt the ELIDT, the ELIADC Tariff would serve as the baseline for true-up calculations, with projected deferral and fuel balance amounts. A deferral mechanism is deemed critical due to uncertainty in PHP's tariff treatment and significant revenue/cost impacts.

nc (Exhibit N-9), and on behalf of NewPage Port Hawkesbury Corp. and 27 Bowater Mersey Paper Company Limited by Mr. James Selecky of Brubaker & Associates, Inc. 28 (Exhibit N-10). In their evidence, all three independent experts disagreed...

AI summary Three independent experts, including Mr. James Selecky of Brubaker & Associates, Inc., on behalf of NewPage Port Hawkesbury Corp. and Bowater Mersey Paper Company Limited, challenged NS Power's assumed retirement dates for assets, arguing they were incorrect despite NS Power's reliance on them.

1 letter (Appendix 8F of the GRA), a securitization approach would not come at a cost to the 2 Province and does not require the Province to backstop it. 3 Given the significant savings for customers that can be derived from securitization...

AI summary NS Power argues securitization does not cost the Province and can address regulatory issues, while the DOE questions NS Power's 2026 staff forecasts. Doane Grant Thornton supports NS Power's OM&G and labour cost forecasts as reasonable based on evidence, including the ScottMadden Benchmarking report and GRA Appendix 7A.

1 Perceived "technical issues" 2 The coincident factors of 91.7 percent (cell E13 of 'Trans – Fig 5-13' in SR-01 Attachment 11) 3 and 78.6 percent (cell F24 of 'Exhibit 9a Annual' in SR-01 Attachment 02) are two different 4 calculations se...

AI summary NS Power clarifies that two coincident factors (91.7% and 78.6%) serve distinct purposes in OATT calculations, with the former used for billing determinants and the latter as a coincidence measure. REI raised concerns about MW figure inconsistencies in the 2026-2027 GRA proceeding, but NS Power asserts these do not impact proposed OATT rates. REI's claim that updated COSS would lower OATT costs is dismissed as false.

competition in two ways. It sets an unrealist benchmark of posted retail rates for comparison purposes, and it creates an ongoing fuel liability for customers looking to leave NSPI bundled service. … REI respectfully requests that the Boar...

AI summary REI requests NSPI to improve fuel cost forecasting accuracy and adhere to the FAM POA for recovering fuel overages annually. NS Power argues compliance with the POA and bi-annual audits by Bates White validate their forecasting methods.

resulting in more use of the procedure. He also noted that ELG is currently used in Alberta and Newfoundland. His evidence also indicated that ALG is used by Maritime Electric in Prince Edward Island. [204] For this GRA, NS Power submitted...

AI summary NS Power advocates for using the Equal Life Group (ELG) method over Average Life Group (ALG) in its General Rate Application (GRA), arguing ELG reduces rate base and financing costs more effectively. The Board will evaluate ELG vs. ALG, focusing on procedure appropriateness and intergenerational equity implications.

3.7.2.1 Return on Equity [453] Determining a fair return on equity generally entails the use of several wellestablished financial models. These include, but are not limited to, the discounted cash flow (DCF) model; the capital asset pricin...

AI summary The document discusses methodologies for determining a fair return on equity (ROE) for Nova Scotia Power (NS Power), including DCF, CAPM, and risk premium models. A consensus agreement sets NS Power's ROE at 9% with an 8.75%-9.25% earnings band and 40% equity thickness. NS Power's experts, James Coyne and John Trogonoski of Concentric Energy Advisors, provided evidence using market data up to February 2025.

y Canadian CFOs, as mentioned earlier. Thus, the BYPRP approach accounts for interactions between company debt costs and equity markets, and as such it is intuitively sound. [Exhibit N-32, pp. 74-75] [516] Dr. Cleary gives equal weighting...

AI summary The analysis discusses the BYPRP approach to Return on Equity (ROE), which considers interactions between debt costs and equity markets. Dr. Cleary's method uses equal weighting of three approaches, while Concentric emphasizes the need for multiple models and informed judgment. Other regulators (BCUC, OEB, AUC) support using multiple methodologies for fair ROE determination.

r. Blair also agreed that the basic customer method would classify the smallest amount of distribution system costs as customer-related and the minimum system method would classify the highest amount. [598] Both Mr. Blair and Ms. Palmer ag...

AI summary The text discusses the controversy surrounding the classification of distribution system costs under the basic customer and minimum system methods. Both Blair and Palmer agree that these costs are difficult to allocate based on customers or demand. Blair and Palmer differ on the geographic size correlation with customer growth, while Bonbright's work is referenced as highlighting the complexity of cost allocation.

rges under the OATT are calculated such that application of the proposed OATT charges yields the OATT revenue requirement. NS Power noted the factor of 78.6% is not used directly in rate calculations. [637] Renewall also noted that the sys...

AI summary NS Power and Renewall Energy Inc. dispute OATT rate calculations, with Renewall highlighting discrepancies in system peak data and coincidence factors between exhibits. NS Power asserts that Exhibit 9a's coincidence factors are irrelevant to OATT rates, while acknowledging some exhibit errors are 'side calculations' not affecting final rates.

as required by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) requirements. It explained the changes to the coal plant retirement timelines: (a) The retirement assumption for Ling...

AI summary The retirement timelines for Lingan Unit 2 and Trenton Unit 5 were extended due to updated load forecasts and system outlooks. Lingan 2's retirement was delayed to 2027 following a 108 MW increase in 2024 firm peak load, while Trenton 5's timeline was updated based on the 2023 Evergreen IRP and further adjusted in the 2024 DDA report, delaying decommissioning until after 2029.

1 following the Plan of Administration on how to develop 2 those assumptions. Whether we will over-forecast or 3 under-forecast it depends on how the market moves and how 4 things develop. 5 Q. Okay. Is the expectation that 6 there's an eq...

AI summary The discussion revolves around forecasting assumptions and the Base Cost Forecast (BCF) for test years, noting that the BCF per unit is decreasing for 2026 compared to 2025, despite overall increases in BCF. The expectation is a P-50 forecast approach, balancing over and under-forecasting based on market developments.

1 A. (Williams) That's correct. My 2 only hesitation was just on the what was in forecast 3 and what actually moved. 4 Q. Yeah. 5 A. (Williams) So only what actually 6 moved would be paid for. 7 Q. Agreed. Okay, great. Thank you. 8 And the...

AI summary The text discusses a regulatory proceeding where participants are discussing forecasting accuracy, employee movements related to IESO, and the scope of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan in a Settlement Agreement. Key topics include operational changes and regulatory compliance.

LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT NO. DESCRIPTION PAGE NO. 2 3 4 5 6 including labour, materials, contracts, pension costs, insurance, membership dues, subscription costs, office supplies, travel and meals expense. 7 And then we'll go to the next p...

AI summary The document includes a list of exhibits related to Nova Scotia Power's revenue requirement calculations. It outlines procedures performed to assess the reasonableness and accuracy of the calculations, including the review of forecasting methodologies and internal consistency of financial schedules from the September 2025 filing.

DOANE GRANT THORNTON PANEL 1103 Questions, (Deveau) 1 Scotia Power. 2 Okay. And is that sort of is Q. 3 that included in what you mean by the third bullet there, 4 "reviewing the filing for internal consistency"? 5 A. (Brown) Yeah. So thro...

AI summary The discussion revolves around the review process of an application, focusing on internal consistency and forecasting methodology. The reviewer confirmed that consistency checks were performed across supporting schedules, and that assumptions provided by Nova Scotia Power were accepted as factual without independent verification.

DOANE GRANT THORNTON PANEL 1105 Questions, (Deveau) 1 prepared to accept their assumption as fact. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 We have reviewed the operating expenses included in Nova Scotia Power's ['24] actuals, ['24] Complianc...

AI summary The text discusses a review of Nova Scotia Power's operating expenses, including actuals, compliance, budget, and forecast data. The reviewer confirms that the forecasts are reasonable based on their analysis and the benchmarking study conducted by ScottMadden.

Questions, (Chair) 1 Agreement, that it feels appropriate, the parties came to 2 the agreement, but for kind of outside experts, observers, 3 and decision-makers, it's not clear that those are the 4 right methods moving forward for the jur...

AI summary The Chair raises concerns about the appropriateness of certain methods used in the proceeding, suggesting they may not be suitable for the jurisdiction. The witness, Palmer, acknowledges that these methods require further justification and reconsideration but notes that their concerns were overshadowed by the Minimum System/Basic Customer Method. These issues are flagged for future analysis.