Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12551

INTRA-YEAR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CBL ENERGY CHARGE NS Power will utilize its established forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge. PHP will undertake commercially reasonable efforts to accurately forecast its energy usage....

AI summary NS Power will determine the CBL Energy Charge using its forecasting methodology. If significant changes occur, such as delays in NS Block energy import deliveries, NS Power may request the Board's approval to revise the CBL Energy Charge on a prospective basis.

INTRA-YEAR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CBL ENERGY CHARGE NS Power will utilize its established forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge. PHP will undertake commercially reasonable efforts to accurately forecast its energy usage....

AI summary NS Power will use its forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge, with PHP required to forecast energy usage accurately. If significant changes occur, such as delays in NS Block energy import, NS Power may request a recalculation of the CBL Energy Charge with Board approval.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Please explain whether the energy served for the GRLF, Shore Power, BUTU, Spill, and 4 Energy Balancing Service rates is included in the load forecast used for system planning 5 purposes and, if so, on...

AI summary The response to Request IR-2 explains that GRLF and Shore Power are not used for system planning, while BUTU, Energy Balancing Service, and RTR customers are included in the firm load based on the 2025 Load Forecast Report. Spill energy is excluded from peak calculations.

12 Response IR-1: 13 14 (a) Estimated revenue for 2026 is provided in the table below, based on the 2026 forecast 15 produced in Q3 2025.

AI summary The document provides an estimated revenue for 2026, based on a forecast produced in Q3 2025.

INTRA-YEAR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CBL ENERGY CHARGE NS Power will utilize its established forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge. PHP will undertake commercially reasonable efforts to accurately forecast its energy usage....

AI summary NS Power will use its forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge, with the possibility of revision if significant changes occur. PHP is expected to forecast its energy usage accurately. Delays in NS Block energy import could impact the CBL Energy Charge for 2020, potentially requiring recalculation.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-4: 2 3 Preamble: In response to the Board's Directive comparing monthly Forecast-to-Actual NB 4 imports, in Section 2.3, page 14, NS Power indicated that forecast accuracy can be assessed 5 via FAM reporting....

AI summary The document addresses a request (IR-4) related to forecast accuracy in the context of the Board's directive comparing monthly Forecast-to-Actual NB imports. NS Power explains that the FAM filings provide actual costs against FAM budget costs and notes that AAR rates are handled in a separate proceeding.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL Request IR-5: Preamble: The Table below was compiled from the December FAM monthly reports (and October 2025 which is the YTD). (a) Please confirm the accuracy of the data and identify the date of the "Forecast" and "Budge...

AI summary The text requests confirmation of the accuracy of data from the December FAM monthly reports and the October 2025 YTD report, and asks for the dates of the 'Forecast' and 'Budget' each year.

(b) Please provide the missing information required to evaluate historical forecast accuracy regarding natural gas, diesel, import purchases, and Maritime Link. Α В С D E F G H 6 reports. As the BCF/GRA forecasts filed with the NSEB are ty...

AI summary The document discusses the challenges in evaluating historical forecast accuracy for natural gas, diesel, import purchases, and Maritime Link due to outdated assumptions in BCF/GRA forecasts filed with the NSEB. NS Power has shifted to using internal forecasts for more recent comparisons, particularly for the 2025 budget, as no BCF was filed for 2025.

REDACTED 1 (i) Please refer to NSEB IR-7. For all other new Rate Based Procurement wind projects, NS 2 Power assumes these are commercially operational January 2027 at the time this forecast 3 was produced. NS Power generally receives quar...

AI summary The document discusses NS Power's assumptions and methodology for forecasting marginal costs, referencing the FAM Plan of Administration and Appendix B of the FAM POA. It also mentions the use of deterministic forecasting and sensitivity analyses, and notes that alternative methodologies are not part of any regulatory filing process.

14 comprehensive stochastic probabilistic approach would improve forecast accuracy, while 15 increasing the risk of skewing marginal costs due to inherent imbalance of potential

AI summary A comprehensive stochastic probabilistic approach is suggested to improve forecast accuracy, although it may increase the risk of skewing marginal costs due to inherent imbalances.

n this proceeding for 2025 illustrates the volatility of marginal generation and the inaccuracy of the assumptions used,[19](#page-6-0) and yet only represent one aspect of the marginal cost accuracy. NSPI's failure to analyze or model the...

AI summary The document highlights NSPI's failure to analyze and model the accuracy of annual versus monthly marginal cost pricing, despite having access to historical data. This lack of transparency and validation increases risk for RtR customers and undermines forecasting accuracy.

4. IMPROVED MINIMUM REPORTING FOR AAR APPLICATIONS The ability to review NSPI's forecasting accuracy year over year is essential to promote transparency, accountability and improve forecasting. 4138-8807-8436 [ 31 ](#page-9-1) See : N-1(i)...

AI summary The document discusses the need for improved minimum reporting in Annually Adjusted Rates (AAR) applications, emphasizing the importance of transparency and accuracy in NSPI's forecasting. REI requests that NSPI report on forecasted versus actual monthly and hourly marginal costs and provide explanations for variances. NSPI currently tracks hourly marginal units by generator but lacks detailed fuel-type data due to a cybersecurity incident.

INTRA-YEAR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CBL ENERGY CHARGE NS Power will utilize its established forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge. PHP will undertake commercially reasonable efforts to accurately forecast its energy usage....

AI summary NS Power will adjust the CBL Energy Charge based on significant changes in circumstances, such as delays in energy imports or unexpected changes in generation costs or consumption. These adjustments require Board approval and do not affect the Minimum Payment by PHP.

19 generator type. 1 (b) For each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 to date and forecast to year-end, please 2 provide the hours and percentage of hours of the year that each generation 3 class was actually the marginal unit on the system. Please ide...

AI summary The document requests detailed information on generator type performance, including actual and forecasted marginal unit hours, explanations for variances, and details on the PLEXOS model used for forecasting. It also asks about OBPS compliance and the use of updated data in forecasting.

16 Request IR-4: - 17 Preamble: In response to the Board's Directive comparing monthly Forecast-to-Actual 18 NB imports, in Section 2.3, page 14, NS Power indicated that forecast accuracy can be 19 assessed via FAM reporting. - 20 (a) Plea...

AI summary The Board is requesting NS Power to identify where forecast accuracy data can be found in FAM filings and whether 'Actuals' should be compared against 'Forecast' or 'Budget' for assessing forecast accuracy.

27 Request IR-5: - 28 Preamble: The Table below was compiled from the December FAM monthly reports (and 29 October 2025 which is the YTD). - 30 (a) Please confirm the accuracy of the data and identify the date of the 31 "Forecast" and "Bud...

AI summary The text requests confirmation of the accuracy of data compiled from December FAM monthly reports and the October 2025 YTD report, and asks for the dates of the 'Forecast' and 'Budget' each year.

1 (b) Please provide the missing information required to evaluate historical 2 forecast accuracy regarding natural gas, diesel, import purchases, and 3 Maritime Link. А В С D Е F G Н 1 (millions of dolla rs) YTD 2 dec dec dec dec dec dec o...

AI summary The text requests the provision of missing information to evaluate historical forecast accuracy for natural gas, diesel, import purchases, and the Maritime Link. It includes tables with actual, forecast, and budget figures for these categories across various years.

5 Request IR-6: Preamble: It is understood that the PLEXOS model relies on monthly on-peak / off-peak pricing for imports, which may be reasonable in aggregate but may not reflect actual market pricing during periods of high system demand...

AI summary The document requests NS Power to assess the accuracy of monthly and annual forecasts for import costs using the PLEXOS model, emphasizing the importance of these assessments given the materiality of import costs to marginal cost calculations.

2 Reference: Assumptions, page 11, Appendix A3 PCON; and Board-Directed Sensitivity 3 Analyses, pages 12-13 and Appendix A6 PCON. - 4 (a) NS Power has stated that higher SO2 emission limits have resulted in lower 5 marginal costs. Please c...

AI summary The document contains a series of questions directed to NS Power regarding SO2 emissions, marginal cost impacts, surplus energy delivery, and sensitivity analyses related to commodity price volatility, wind generation delays, and tariff assumptions. The questions seek clarification on assumptions, risk factors, and forecasting methodologies used in cost modeling.

Preamble: In response to the Board’s Directive comparing monthly Forecast-to-Actual NB imports, in Section 2.3, page 14, NS Power indicated that forecast accuracy can be assessed via FAM reporting. 1. Please identify specifically where (wh...

AI summary The document requests clarification on where forecast accuracy data can be found in FAM filings, whether actuals should be compared to forecasts or budgets, and confirms the accuracy of data in a table. It also raises concerns about the PLEXOS model's reliance on monthly on-peak/off-peak pricing for imports.

Request IR-7: Re: Application, p.14 and Confidential Appendix A7, identifying factors that cause actual import volumes to vary from forecast. - (a) Please provide a list of the factors, including but not limited to those identified in Conf...

AI summary Request IR-7 asks NS Power to identify factors causing variations in import volumes from forecasts, explain their impact on 2026 imports, and provide sensitivity analysis and forecast comparisons. The request also seeks details on when forecasts were developed and how factors like energy product availability and outages were considered.

INTRA-YEAR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CBL ENERGY CHARGE NS Power will utilize its established forecasting methodology to determine the CBL Energy Charge. PHP will undertake commercially reasonable efforts to accurately forecast its energy usage....

AI summary NS Power will adjust the CBL Energy Charge based on significant changes in circumstances, such as delays in energy imports or unexpected changes in generation costs or consumption. Adjustments require Board approval and do not affect the Minimum Payment by PHP.