Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12619

1 Widening these ROWs mitigates the risk of tree fall ins for the vast majority of trees on the edge 2 of the ROW. 3 4 The increased investment in T010 for the widening of 138kV, 230kV, and 345kV rights-of-way 5 remains consistent with the...

AI summary The document discusses the widening of rights-of-way (ROWs) to mitigate tree fall risks and references the 2016 directive on ROW widening for various voltage levels. It also mentions the 2021 Distribution Routines ATO and the requirement for NS Power to report on routine findings in the 2024 ACE Plan, along with forecasting methodologies for distribution routines.

nflation D007 Joint Use 3 Year Average Plus Inflation (excluding 2023 actuals) Date: December 12, 2025 Page 69 of 782 REDACTED REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 ACE Plan CONFIDENTIAL (Attachments Only) Distribution Routines...

AI summary The document outlines the 2026 Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan, including distribution routines and forecasting methodologies. It mentions various projects and their funding approaches, incorporating inflation adjustments and historical data.

2026 Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan (NSEB M12619) NSPI Responses to Consumer Advocate Information Requests 1 Request IR-32: 15 (c) Please describe any other actions that NS Power intends to undertake in the next three 16 years for t...

AI summary NSPI responds to information requests regarding the 2026 Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan. NSPI notes that forecasting methodologies for distribution routines have been previously discussed in filings and that a new methodology successfully avoided the need for an ATO in 2025. No changes to internal work orders have occurred since January 2025, and the initiative is not a current priority.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL Request IR-17: - Reference: N-1, 2026 ACE Plan, page 62, Figure 35 : Routine Capital Spending Project - Breakdown Yr/Yr; page 70, Figure 42: Summary of Forecasting Methodology for - Distribution Routines; and page 73, Figu...

AI summary The request seeks the 5-year historical dataset used to forecast D008 Provincial Storm spending for 2026, excluding 'Extreme Event Day storms,' and asks for the impact of these exclusions on the forecast. NSPI confirmed the use of a 5-year average excluding extreme events.

Please refer to the below table for the 5-year historical data set used for forecasting D008 for 2026. Year Actuals Pre-AO ($) Adjusted for 1.8% Inflation ($) 2021 1,905,329 2,083,094 2022 17,464,704 18,756,523 2023 4,431,180 4,674,796 202...

AI summary The text refers to a 5-year historical data set used for forecasting D008 for 2026, including actuals and adjusted figures for various years. It also mentions Hurricane Fiona and Hurricane Lee as Extreme Event Day storms.

2026 Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan (NSEB M12619) NSPI Responses to NSEB Information Requests 1 replacement activity, a large portion of the 2026 budget was developed using forward 2 looking, project-based estimates. These estimates...

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's responses to NSEB information requests regarding the 2026 Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan. The 2026 budget was developed using forward-looking, project-based estimates based on asset condition and risk data, with references to forecasting methodology in Figure 42. NSPI explains that the same calculation method used in the 2025 ACE Plan was applied for 2026, incorporating a 1.8% inflation adjustment to the 2025 Q3 forecast.

2 (c) There are no costs associated with individual new customer connections in D004. NS 3 Power does not budget or forecast this project with a distinction between customer 4 renovation-related costs and general load growth-driven costs....

AI summary The document states that there are no costs associated with individual new customer connections in D004, and NS Power does not distinguish between renovation-related costs and general load growth-driven costs in its budgeting and forecasting for this project.

8 (iv) NS Power does not create new projects for new customer additions. The other 9 factors described above are not incorporated into the forecasting methodology. 10

AI summary The text indicates that NS Power does not create new projects for new customer additions, and nine other factors are not included in the forecasting methodology.

6 (e) Similar to the 2025 ACE Plan, the 2026 ACE Plan budget for D004, D061 and D062 was 7 developed based on the Q3 forecast for each of these routines plus inflation. None of the 8 factors referenced above directly impacted the forecast,...

AI summary The 2026 ACE Plan budget for D004, D061, and D062 was developed using Q3 forecasts and inflation, with no direct impact from referenced factors. NS Power is satisfied with the revised forecasting methodology and does not plan to make further changes.

Request IR-4: 1 Request IR-2: 2 3 Refer to the Application, 10.3 Like-for-Like Routine Replacements and Pages 69-70 of 782, 4 Figure 42 documenting the forecast methodology used for the Distribution Routines. 5 6 (a) How did NS Power inclu...

AI summary The document includes requests and responses regarding the forecasting methodology for distribution routines and the inclusion of quality control steps in the Project Delivery Model (PDM) as part of the 2026 ACE Plan. NS Power explains that routines are forecasted based on historical project spend, not the number of customers.

ategies LLC and Brattle Group, with Rob Gramlich, Richard Seide, Yorgos Raskovic, J. Michael Hagerty, Joe DeLosa III, and Johannes Pfeifenberger, for submission in FERC Docket No. AD24-9, August 2024. "Independent Transmission Construction...

AI summary The text lists various reports and studies prepared by Grid Strategies LLC and other consultants, focusing on power demand forecasts, transmission construction monitoring, and strategic industry trends. These reports were submitted to different entities and prepared for organizations such as the Clean Grid Initiative.

Readiness (FAASSTeR) meeting, Orlando, FL, November 2017. - "Making the Most of the Power Plant Market: Best Practices for All-Source Electric Generation Procurement," Southeast Energy and Environmental Leadership Forum, Nicholas Institute...

AI summary The document lists various presentations and meetings related to energy policy, load forecasting, and power generation practices, highlighting topics such as resource adequacy, real-time pricing, and the transition in power demand trends.

y of Colorado's 2021 general rate case (phase 1) on behalf of Energy Outreach Colorado. Reasonableness of capital project costs, choice of test year, adjustment to load to reflect effects of pandemic. 2022 California PUC Docket A.21-05-017...

AI summary The document outlines expert testimony provided in various regulatory proceedings, including rate cases and load forecast reviews, focusing on topics such as capital expenditures, cost allocation, and load forecasting. Testimonies were provided on behalf of consumer advocates and other organizations in Nova Scotia and California.

DATE FILED: April 8, 2026 Page 4 of 19 1 2.0 RESPONSE TO CA (WILSON) EVIDENCE 2 historically shown limited predictive value in forecasting new customer routines and NS Power 3 does not intend to explore further information of additional fa...

AI summary The document discusses NS Power's response to evidence from CA (Wilson), stating that their forecasting methods for new customer routines have limited predictive value and that they will continue monitoring trends and evaluating alternative approaches. NS Power also disagrees with a recommendation to reduce contingency amounts for projects to 10% if a risk matrix is not filed, arguing that the absence of a risk register does not indicate lower risk.

2.3.5.1 Findings [69] The Board does not consider that the demonstrated accuracy of the forecasting methodology resolves the information issue raised by the CA. Forecast accuracy and forecast justification are distinct considerations. A fo...

AI summary The Board emphasizes that forecast accuracy alone does not resolve information issues raised by the CA. Forecast justification and underlying drivers must be considered, especially when forecasts rely on current expenditure levels and inflation. Activity information and external cost factors are essential for accurate expenditure forecasting and cost escalation explanations.

Request IR-38: - Distribution routines: - a) Please explain how the forecasting methodologies illustrated in Figure 42 avoid reliance on historical spending levels as a proxy for future need and instead demonstrate independent evidence of...

AI summary Request IR-38 seeks clarification on NS Power's forecasting methodologies for distribution routines, including their reliance on historical data, efficiency gains, external benchmarks, and the rationale for new routines, as well as the development of forecast volumes and costs.

- request? 1 Request IR-81: - Please provide the forecast capacity factor and utilization factor for TUC1 for each year from 2026

AI summary The request is for the forecast capacity factor and utilization factor for TUC1 for each year starting from 2026.

underspent in 2025, including any key drivers, changes in scope, timing of projects, or other factors that contributed to the variance between budgeted and actual expenditures. Distribution routines: 1. Please explain how the forecasting m...

AI summary The text requests an explanation of forecasting methodologies used for capital expenditures, focusing on avoiding reliance on historical spending, incorporating external benchmarks, and clarifying the scope and justification for new routines. It also asks for details on how forecast volumes and costs were developed for each routine and actual expenditures for 2022-2025.

in how forecast volumes and costs were developed for each routine. Provide actual expenditure for projects that would be classified under each new routine for 2022-2025. D061 and D062 – New Customers 1. Please update the attachment provide...

AI summary The document requests updated financial and operational data for new customer routines, including actual expenditures and forecasts from 2022 to 2026, and a comparison of capital project funding sources and forecasting methodologies. It also asks for an explanation of budget variances and a table comparing IRP and ACE Plan spending per unit.

Request IR-2: - Refer to the Application, 10.3 Like-for-Like Routine Replacements and Pages 69-70 of 782, Figure 42 documenting the forecast methodology used for the Distribution Routines. - a) How did NS Power include or reflect the chang...

AI summary Request IR-2 asks NS Power to explain how customer numbers were included in the forecast methodology for Distribution Routines D004, D061, and D062, and how new commercial customers, particularly those under the SBA, were assumed in the application.

7 Request IR-17: - 8 Reference: N-1, 2026 ACE Plan, page 62, Figure 35 : Routine Capital Spending Project - 9 Breakdown Yr/Yr; page 70, Figure 42: Summary of Forecasting Methodology for - 10 Distribution Routines; and page 73, Figure 44: D...

AI summary The document requests the 5-year historical dataset used for forecasting D008 Provincial Storm spending in 2026, excluding 'Extreme Event Day storms,' and seeks clarification on which storms were excluded and their quantitative impact on the forecast.

h NSPI’s 2030 Clean Power Plan? Reference: N-1, 2026 ACE Plan, page 57, Figure 32: General Plant Carry-over Capital Spending Summary, “C0061284 IT - OT Cyber Security Control Implementation Phase 1”. 1. Please confirm this project was orig...

AI summary The text raises questions about NSPI’s 2030 Clean Power Plan, specifically regarding the deferral of a cybersecurity project and the increase in funding for Class 3 Work Vehicle Replacements. It also references forecasting methodologies for distribution routine spending, derived from a 5-year historical average excluding extreme weather events.

New Customer-Driven Work Volumes Mr. Wilson states in his report that NS Power has failed to follow through on earlier commitments to collect better data on new customer-driven work volumes. He states that the company should distinguish ca...

AI summary Mr. Wilson criticizes NS Power for not collecting better data on new customer-driven work volumes, suggesting it would improve budgeting, forecasting, and rate design. NS Power disagrees, stating its current forecasting methodology has been effective and that gathering more detailed data would incur unnecessary costs.

o be appropriate for routine work as the work is very repetitive in nature and managed by a small group of people on each individual initiative that are already aligned on key elements of the project, issues, risks and opportunities, and t...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate (CA) supports NS Power's 2026 ACE Plan but raises concerns about the cost-effectiveness of NS Power's Five-Year Reliability Plan. NS Power maintains its position on recommendations from John Wilson and argues that existing systems like WAM, Maximo, and Salesforce are already optimized for efficiency and that additional reporting would provide limited value.

2.3.5.1 Findings [69] The Board does not consider that the demonstrated accuracy of the forecasting methodology resolves the information issue raised by the CA. Forecast accuracy and forecast justification are distinct considerations. A fo...

AI summary The Board emphasizes that forecast accuracy alone does not resolve information issues raised by the Commissioner of the Inquiry. It stresses the importance of activity data, such as changes in customer mix and load increases, to assess expenditure forecasts. The Board also expects NS Power to provide supporting information when attributing cost increases to external factors like supply-chain constraints.

NS POWER PANEL 87 Cr-ex, (Murphy) 1 (Beaton) Yes, it is. A. 2 Okay. And so really, the issue Q. 3 here is about as I understand it, it's about gathering 4 information about new customer routines and sort of 5 collecting that. Is that 6 (Be...

AI summary The discussion revolves around the forecasting methodology used by Nova Scotia Power, specifically the 2025 approach, which has proven effective in producing accurate budgets. The topic of gathering additional information for forecasting is raised, but it is considered unnecessary due to the current methodology's success.

NS POWER PANEL 119 Cr-ex, (Powell) 1 that you've identified that the forecasting is on 2 historical project spend, and these ones are specifically 3 customer driven because it's new customers residential, 4 new customers commercial, in ter...

AI summary The discussion focuses on forecasting methodologies used for customer growth in residential and commercial sectors, noting changes in provincial growth expectations. The speaker explains the shift from multi-year averages to current year Q3 forecasts, citing the 2025 ACE Plan as a successful example. The conversation also references SAIFI and SAIDI metrics in an exhibit.

1 referenced, up to the end of July with actuals, and then 2 the remaining forecast, we were still largely working off 3 of manual processes with forecasts last year. We didn't 4 have PowerPlan, our capital which is the software we 5 compl...

AI summary The discussion highlights challenges with capital forecasting processes, particularly the reliance on manual methods and the lack of software like PowerPlan. The 2026 ACE Plan is considered accurate, with confidence in the $15 million figure. The 2025 budget overrun is attributed to work originally planned for later years but accelerated due to performance and outage issues.

normal part of managing a program of this magnitude. 1 And so we would anticipate, within a 13 forecasted programs. The ACE Plans that we come here 14 every year to support is made on a bottom-up condition 15 assessment risk profile to the...

AI summary The discussion revolves around the management of a large-scale program, specifically the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Plans, which involve bottom-up risk assessments and updates to project conditions. There is a focus on forecasting, program adjustments, and the importance of documenting changes to avoid filling a fixed spending envelope without proper amendments.

NS POWER PANEL 355 Cr-ex, (Mahody) 1 produce? 2 A. (Beaton) Just to clarify, you're 3 just looking to update the 2025 forecast with the 2025 4 actuals? 5 Yes. Q. 6 A. (Beaton) Yes, we can provide 7 that. It's completed in a summary form in...

AI summary The discussion revolves around updating the 2025 forecast in a document with the most recent Q-4 information. The 2025 forecast for 'Transmission line replacements total' was initially estimated at $9.3 million but has been updated to $6 million based on new data.