Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12694

2.1.1 Weather Forecast - The first weather briefing for emergency management officials for this extreme cold event was - issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) on January 20, 2026. Weather - forecasts received by NS Power f...

AI summary The text details a weather forecast for an extreme cold event in Nova Scotia, issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) on January 20, 2026. Forecasts indicated temperatures between -15°C and -25°C with wind chill down to -30°C. NS Power received consistent forecasts from ECCC and third-party providers, noting limited system risks beyond extreme cold impacts. The company monitored forecasts as part of pre-event preparations.

Board's Analysis and Observations The Board accepts the Cold Weather Event Report as filed and observes that from an operational standpoint, NS Power performed well, and the operation showed significant improvement compared to the February...

AI summary The Board acknowledges NS Power's operational improvements during a cold weather event but highlights concerns about negative reserve margins and under-forecasted peak loads. It references Matter M12028 and emphasizes the need for compliance with NERC standards during transitions to IESO Nova Scotia. The Board urges improved load forecasting and contingency planning.

Request IR-14: - Reference page 20 of the report. - "Wind generation tracked the forecast trend well. The January 24 day-ahead forecast predicted a steeper generation decline than the two-day-ahead planning forecast on January 23 as shown...

AI summary Request IR-14 asks whether operational issues caused low wind generation on January 25 during a cold-weather event, noting a 367 MW drop in wind production due to declining wind speeds. The request references forecast discrepancies between day-ahead and two-day-ahead planning models.

Board's Analysis and Observations The Board accepts the Cold Weather Event Report as filed and observes that from an operational standpoint, NS Power performed well, and the operation showed significant improvement compared to the February...

AI summary The Board acknowledges NS Power's improved operational performance during the January 2026 cold weather event but raises concerns about negative system MW margins, under-forecasted peak loads, and reliability risks. It references Matter M12028 and emphasizes adherence to NERC standards during transitions like IESO Nova Scotia's operational takeover.