Topic:"Forecasting Methodology" in M12916

2 LOAD FORECAST IESO Nova Scotia utilizes the Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) load forecast as the foundation for the expected system peak and net system requirement, with adjustments made to net system requirement to account for Renewab...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia uses NS Power's load forecast as the base for expected system peak and net system requirement, with adjustments for Renewable-to-Retail customers, municipal utilities, and behind-the-meter solar. The forecast indicates a 1.1% annual increase in both system peak and net system requirement from 2026 to 2036.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR - 1 - Referencing Table 1: Forecast System Peak and Net System Requirement, pdf page 6, IESO

AI summary The document references Table 1 from page 6 of the IESO's pdf, which provides a forecast of system peak and net system requirement.

Request IR – 12 - Please provide graphs showing historical and predicted annual system peak and annual net - system requirement values for review, including the past 10 years and next 10 years, similar to - Figures 1 and 2 in the 2025 10-Y...

AI summary The request asks for historical and predicted annual system peak and net system requirement values for the past and next 10 years, similar to figures in the 2025 10-Year System Outlook. The response refers to the 2026 Load Forecast Report and notes that certain loads are not included in the energy requirement calculations.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL c) The magnitude of the increases in energy production does not correlate with the magnitudes of the capacity additions because energy is a function of both the capacity and time, while capacity is a one-time change. As an...

AI summary The text explains that increases in energy production do not directly correlate with capacity additions due to the time factor in energy generation. The first 36 MW of capacity is expected to come online in late 2026, resulting in a low load impact that year. NSPI did not adjust the load forecast for a 59 MW increase in generating capacity by 2029, so IESO Nova Scotia did not need to modify the load forecast accordingly.

Request IR-02 Refer to the 2026 Report Section 2 – Load Forecast, page 6, Table 1: Forecast System Peak and Net System Requirement. - a. Please explain the drivers between the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) Energy from 15 GWh in 202...

AI summary The document requests an explanation for the increase in Renewable-to-Retail (RtR) Energy from 2026 to 2028, the assumption of flat RtR sales from 2028 to 2036, and a reconciliation of discrepancies between energy production increases and resource expansion in the 10-Year System Outlook Resource Plan.

3. Large Loads Inclusion in Forecast The potential for incremental large load projects represents one of the most important uncertainties for Nova Scotia's grid, and accurate forecasting is an important component of planning for 8 M12916,...

AI summary The inclusion of large load projects in Nova Scotia's grid forecasting is a significant uncertainty. IESO Nova Scotia has not established formal criteria for including large loads in forecasts, though it suggests considering a System Impact Study and subscription to a rate or tariff. The SBA recommends developing a clear method for incorporating large loads into the System Outlook to ensure timely resource adequacy planning.