Topic:"Heat Pumps" in M10569

1 4.4 End-Use Intensity Trends 2 3 In addition to economic data, the SAE model also uses end-use data, in the form of 4 saturations and efficiencies, from NRCan and the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). 5 NRCan data for the residential s...

AI summary The SAE model uses end-use data from NRCan and the EIA to develop end-use intensity trends, adjusting for consistency with actual billing data. Heat pump usage is growing due to its efficiency and environmental benefits.

27 Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province as more customers find heat pumps an 28 efficient way to heat and cool buildings as well as providing environmental and financial 29 benefits. According to the 2019 end use survey, 33 pe...

AI summary Heat pump usage is increasing in Nova Scotia, with 33% of customers using them for heating and 36% for cooling. The 2022 Load Forecast Report indicates that heat pump saturation is expected to reach 66% of homes by 2032 to meet carbon reduction targets. Commercial adoption follows a similar trajectory but will not reach 100% by 2050.

MOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 23: Heat Pump Energy and Peak Comparison 2

AI summary The document presents a redacted section of the 2022 Load Forecast Report, which includes a figure comparing heat pump energy and peak usage. The figure is labeled as Figure 23.

NS Power E3 HP NS Power Additional Peak E3 HP Year HP Energy Energy HP Peak in Forecast Peak (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (MW) 2025 60 34 26 95 69 2030 147 151 57 289 203 3 4 E3 used its in-house building electrification model, RESHAPE, to simula...

AI summary This text discusses the impact of heat pumps on peak load forecasts using E3's RESHAPE model. It highlights that heat pump efficiency declines at lower temperatures, leading to higher peak load impacts. The model also considers the increased reliance on backup electric resistance heating during colder periods.

2022 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 8 of 8 Heating Equipment Stock Rollover  E3’s electrification study scenarios ultimately yield near-complete electrification of residential and commercial buildings by 2050; to achieve policy targ...

AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report Appendix E discusses E3’s electrification study scenarios, which predict near-complete electrification of residential and commercial buildings by 2050, driven largely by heat pump adoption in the 2030s. The analysis assumes rapid growth in heat pump usage, tempered by stock rollover, and notes alignment with NSP forecasts despite data limitations.

ction targets. 26 27 (c) Other heating system technologies are not included in this model as heat pumps have greater 28 efficiency than resistive heating and can be widely deployed. Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-5 Page 1 of 1 10 -...

AI summary NSPI responds to EfficiencyOne's information requests regarding heat pump deployment data and the 2022 Load Forecast Report. Data on residential heat pump types is unavailable, with an assumption that most are ductless. The model excludes other heating technologies due to heat pumps' efficiency and deployability.

is less than 100%, what other types of back-up heating are 27 expected to be in place for heat pumps in 2050, and what percent of the market are 28 they expected to serve? 29 Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-9 Page 1 of 4 10 - Year En...

AI summary NSPI responds to EfficiencyOne's questions about heat pump backup systems, modeling efficiency tiers (Base, Mid, Best in Class) with corresponding COPs. The analysis includes climate change impacts on heating/cooling degree days and low-GWP refrigerant transitions, though specific technologies are not detailed.

30 percent Base efficiency, 40 percent Mid efficiency and 20 30 percent Best in Class heat pumps. The corresponding COPs are shown in the 21 following graph: Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-9 Page 2 of 4 10 - Year Energy and Demand F...

AI summary The text outlines E3's modeling assumptions for heat pump efficiency (Base, Mid, Best in Class) and their COPs, including lockout below -7°C and reliance on electric resistance heating. NSPI affirms Electric Thermal Storage (ETS) as an effective backup for heat pumps when appropriately sized.

1 Request IR-11: 2 3 With reference to Figure 24: Heat Pump Forecast, page 40 of 98, the total cumulative new 4 installs for 2022 is 16,000 and the Overall Heating Intensity (kWh/house) is 1,214 and the 5 Overall Cooling Intensity (kWh/hou...

AI summary The request seeks an explanation for the changes in heat pump saturation and intensity between the 2021 and 2022 forecasts. The response attributes the changes to differences in customer count data sources and updates to the heat pump estimate based on a 2019 survey.

35-40. 25 Itron, Cold Climate Heat Pump Load Study (July 2022), p. 17. Submitted as Appendix A to NS Power, On- Bill Financing Final Report, M09321 (July 21, 2022). 26 Id., p. 18.

AI summary The text references a 2022 Itron study on cold climate heat pump load, submitted as Appendix A to NS Power's On-Bill Financing Final Report (M09321). The study's findings are cited in the context of energy efficiency and residential heating solutions.

r clarification is the mode of these new heat pump installations. For example, whether the new installation is the sole heating source, or whether some existing fossil heating systems remain in place. There is some uncertainty as to the ov...

AI summary The text discusses uncertainties around the peak load effects of heat pump installations and the conversion of water heaters to electric models. It recommends further investigation into these impacts and monitoring of energy usage trends. NSPI is asked to provide updates on demand response initiatives for water heaters.

on this scenario is 23 concerning without further examination. 24 25 3.1 Heat pump modelling 26 In its 2022 Load Forecast, NS Power stated the capacity of heat pumps in the residential and 8 RAP, Getting on track to net zero, a policy pack...

AI summary The text discusses NS Power's 2022 Load Forecast assumptions about heat pump performance, including coefficient of performance (COP) limitations below -7°C and reliance on backup electric resistance heating. It references E1's questions and Econoler's 2020-2022 DSM measure assessments, which calculated peak demand savings using COP values and heating capacity at -15°C.

mp at an outdoor air temperature of -15oC; 15 • COP of baseline electrical resistance (COP = 1.0); and 16 • COP of the installed heat pump at -15oC (from specification sheets). 12 17 18 The implementation and use of cold climate heat pumps...

AI summary The text discusses the adoption of cold climate heat pumps in Nova Scotia, emphasizing their efficiency at -15°C and the requirement for systems to meet COP thresholds (≥1.75) to qualify for rebates. It notes that organizations like Efficiency Vermont and Massachusetts Clean Energy Center have adopted similar standards.

EfficiencyOne (E1) – In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s (NS Power) 10-Year Energy and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) – M10569 E1 Responses to NS Power Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-01: 2 3 R...

AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) responds to Nova Scotia Power's (NS Power) request for data on heat pump installations in Nova Scotia, including forecast vs. actual installations, energy consumption, and savings from 2022 to 2025. E1 references UK and RAP reports highlighting gaps between heat pump deployment targets and actual outcomes.

1 (d) The forecast and actual incentive ($) totals associated with heat pump installations by 2 year. 3 4 (e) The average coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps installed by year. 5 6 Response IR-01: 7 EfficiencyOne has historicall...

AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) provides data on heat pump installations under the Green Heat program, including forecast vs. actual installations and COP metrics. Data sources include DSM Evaluation Reports and specific matter numbers (e.g., M03669, M04819). The 2015 DSM Plan was not modeled.

1 evaluation reports respectively. E1 does not track the forecast or actual energy 2 consumption or demand associated with heat pump installations in the Green Heat 3 program component. 4 5 (c) Please refer to the table below for the forec...

AI summary E1 does not track forecast or actual energy consumption data for heat pump installations in the Green Heat program. A table provides references to evaluation reports and matter numbers (e.g., M03669, M04819) for annual energy and demand savings from 2012 to 2016, with specific document tabs, rows, and columns cited.

2022 M09096 E-1(i) Appendix A Attachment 1 n/a Technical Tables • Rows 248, 255, 256, 257; Column J Column K 2023 M10473 E-1(i) Appendix A Attachment 4 2023- n/a 2025 Settlement Plan Measure Level Energy Efficiency Technical Tables • Rows...

AI summary The document references technical tables from multiple regulatory matters (M09096, M10473, M10569) related to energy efficiency metrics, including average coefficient of performance (COP) data for mini-split heat pumps in Nova Scotia's Green Heat program from 2015-2021. EfficiencyOne (E1) and Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power) are central to the proceeding.

1 Technology 2 3 With a forecast of increased sales and, in particular, increased peak demands, mitigating measures 4 will play a key role over the coming years. At a high level, the forecast already includes the 5 projected impact from ne...

AI summary NS Power discusses mitigating increased peak demand through measures like new rate programs, direct load control, and commercial curtailment, as outlined in its 2020 IRP. Ongoing projects (e.g., Smart Grid Nova Scotia) and emerging technologies (e.g., heat pumps) will inform future forecasts. The CA recommended analyzing weather-related factors on peak loads, which NS Power agrees to include in the 2023 forecast.

Page 7 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 2 3 Synapse, the CA, SBA and E1 provided additional recommendations for future Load Forecasts. 4 NS Power’s responses to those recommendations are set o...

AI summary The document outlines Synapse's recommendations for improving load forecasts, emphasizing heat pump impact analysis. NS Power responds that it will incorporate new data, including an Itron study, into future forecasts. Key focus areas include heat pump adoption and load forecasting methodologies.

mum COP of 1.75 at -15oC, and the removal of any 30 ‘lock-out’ temperature that is not aligned with the COP 31 performance of modelled heat pumps.“ 32 13 M10569, Exhibit N-10, EfficiencyOne Evidence, July 29, 2022, page 14. DATE FILED: Sep...

AI summary The document discusses the removal of a ‘lock-out’ temperature for heat pumps that is not aligned with the COP performance at -15oC, referencing an exhibit from EfficiencyOne Evidence dated July 29, 2022, in the context of the 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal.

he 2 regression? 3 i. Please provide the inflation adjustments used to convert to constant dollars. 4 j. Regarding economic forecasts, identify the scenario/case used for this analysis and the 5 reasons for choosing it. 6 k. Please indicat...

AI summary The regulatory body is requesting detailed information on inflation adjustments, economic forecasts, data sources, and customer heating trends from Nova Scotia Power. They seek specific data on residential and commercial end-use intensities, adjustments made to align with billing data, and forecasts related to heating and heat pump usage.

4. Number of customers using heat pumps for primary heating, 29 5. Number of customers using heat pumps for supplemental heating, 30 6. Number of customers using heat pumps for cooling, 31 7. Number of customers using oil for heating, 32 8...

AI summary The document requests data on customer heating technology adoption, including heat pump usage and other fuel sources, as well as projections for new customers from 2022 to 2032. It focuses on quantifying current and future heating technology distribution among customers.

Document #:296069 Date Filed: June 14, 2022 Synapse (NSPI) Page 4 of 16 1 c. Please provide supporting evidence for the 35 percent saturation of customers providing 2 their heat via heat pumps in 2022 (p.36). 3 d. Please provide the data s...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests from the Board to NSPI and E3 regarding heat pump saturation data, residential water heater efficiency standards, and electric vehicle load patterns. Requests focus on evidence, data sources, and impact analyses for heat pumps, water heating technologies, and EV integration into the grid.

ses rather than declining as it 27 has historically in Figure 33. 28 29 Request IR-13: 30 Commercial and Industrial Growth (Section 4.4, pp 52-53) 31 a. Please provide the detailed calculations behind the values presented in Figure 34. 32...

AI summary Request IR-13 seeks detailed calculations for Figure 34's commercial/industrial demand growth projections, specifically identifying heat pump contributions and distinguishing growth from new customers versus existing ones. The request focuses on analyzing drivers of demand increases in the sector.

heat pumps for heating, cooling? 34 c. How much of the growth represents increases in number or size of customers? How many 35 new customers are included in the forecasts each year?

AI summary The text includes questions about heat pump usage for heating and cooling, and inquiries regarding customer growth forecasts, specifically the number of new customers included annually.

resulting from 25 both the managed and unmanaged scenarios, and please describe any impact that the 26 unmanaged scenario may have on other types of load. 27 28 Request IR-10: Please refer to the Filing, page 8 of Appendix E. It states tha...

AI summary The text includes regulatory requests focused on heat pump adoption incentives, policy targets for carbon reduction, and the impact of unmanaged load scenarios. It questions NSPI about existing incentives, current adoption trends, and steps to ensure alignment with net-zero goals by 2050.

ed to back-up) expected below 23 -15 °C? 24 (iii) At what temperature(s) are heat pump coefficients of performance expected 25 to reach 1.0? Date Filed: June 16, 2022 E1 (NS Power) Page 5 of 8 EfficiencyOne (E1) Information Requests to Nov...

AI summary The text includes questions about heat pump performance at specific temperatures and references a 2022 Load Forecast Report proceeding. EfficiencyOne (E1) has requested information from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) regarding these technical parameters.

1 (b) Please elaborate on any coincidence factor associated with the electric backup of 2 heat pumps. Is any coincidence factor assumed for electric backup heating in the 3 RESHAPE analysis? 4 (c) What penetration of electric resistance he...

AI summary The text includes questions about heat pump backup systems, RESHAPE analysis assumptions, climate change impacts on heating/cooling degree days, low-GWP refrigerants, and EV charging management in Nova Scotia. NS Power is asked to elaborate on technical and modeling considerations.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: EfficiencyOne evidence, July29, 2022, pages 4-5. 4 The UK Climate Change Committee’s target was, and still is, to reach deployment 5 levels of 600,000 heat pumps per annum in existing homes and 300,000 heat p...

AI summary The text references UK heat pump deployment targets and highlights a significant shortfall in installations despite incentives. EfficiencyOne is requested to provide data on heat pump installations, energy savings, and incentive costs from 2022 to 2025, aligning with Nova Scotia's DSM plan. The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) report underscores the gap between forecasted and actual heat pump installations under the RHI scheme.