Topic:"Heat Pumps" in M11108

As with the 2022 Load Forecast, the forecasts developed by third party consultant E3 for 26 space heating and EV load shapes are used. The space heating forecast uses the uptake 27 required to meet stated emission goals over the next 20 ye...

AI summary The 2023 Load Forecast Report highlights the continued growth of heat pump usage in Nova Scotia, driven by incentives and financing options. The forecast estimates a 40% saturation of heat pump usage in 2023, with a significant increase in installations compared to previous forecasts, and assumes full residential saturation by 2050 to meet carbon reduction targets.

MOVED) 2023 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 23: Heat Pump Energy and Peak Comparison 2

AI summary The text references a redacted section of the 2023 Load Forecast Report, specifically Figure 23, which compares heat pump energy and peak usage. The content is not fully visible due to redaction.

NS Power E3 HP NS Power Additional Peak E3 HP Year HP Energy Energy HP Peak in Forecast Peak (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (MW) 2025 100 26 47 47 - 2030 292 142 139 241 102 3 4 E3 used its in-house building electrification model, RESHAPE, to simul...

AI summary The text discusses the use of E3's RESHAPE model to forecast the impact of heat pumps on peak load in Nova Scotia, noting that heat pump efficiency declines at lower temperatures, leading to higher peak demand. Data from Itron in 2021/2022 is referenced to support these findings.

CTED 1 Figure 24 shows the forecast for residential installations and changes to saturation and 2 intensity over the forecast period. 3 4 Figure 24: Heat Pump Forecast 5

AI summary Figure 24 presents a forecast for residential heat pump installations and changes in saturation and intensity over the forecast period.

2,357 81 270 2032 195,656 68 32 69 2,459 84 279 2033 211,636 68 32 72 2,552 87 288 6 7 Water Heaters 8 9 NS Power anticipates that some customers who convert their oil heating systems to heat 10 pumps will also convert their hot water supp...

AI summary NS Power anticipates increased adoption of heat pump water heaters due to operating savings, with saturation expected to reach 87% by 2033. A pilot program with E1 is exploring direct control of water heaters by different vendors. Efficiency improvements have not yet been incorporated into the forecast due to low uptake.

oads to program participation.” As stated on 25 page 20 of the report 2, “There are significant potential energy cost savings for 1 F 26 customers that adopt heat pump technology. Customer behaviour will influence 27 whether customers obta...

AI summary NS Power's Load Forecast assumes heat pumps will dominate heating by 2030, noting customer behavior may prioritize comfort over energy savings. The company suggests market interventions, like revising Efficiency One's mandate, could accelerate electrification. The Public Utilities Act amendment in 2022 is cited as enabling such changes.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to EfficiencyOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2023 Load Forecast, Page 33, Lines 6-7 4 “The estimated number customers who installed...

AI summary NSPI's response to EfficiencyOne's information request explains that the 20,800 heat pump installations in 2022 were calculated using monthly contractor surveys. The estimate is based on data collected through these surveys, as detailed in Attachment 1.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 Page 33 of the Application lines 5 to 6 state: “The end-use model uses an estimated saturation 4 of 40 percent of...

AI summary NSPI explains the increase in heat pump saturation from 33% to 40% in the 2023 Load Forecast Report, citing higher-than-forecast installations in 2022. The response references prior forecasts and installation data to justify the adjustment.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-6: 2 3 Page 37 of the Application addresses heat pump water heaters, lines 11 and 12 state: 4 “Growth is expected to rema...

AI summary NSPI clarifies that the 2023 Load Forecast Report assumes increasing hot water heater efficiency but does not explicitly account for heat pump water heaters. It assumes a full transition to heat pump space heating by 2050 for carbon reduction targets, though no specific end date for incentives is provided. NSPI states no commonly available heat pumps currently provide both domestic hot water and space heating simultaneously.

Heat Pump 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 Other1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 Wood 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 11....

AI summary The text presents data on the distribution of heating systems, including heat pumps, other systems, and dual systems, with varying percentages across different categories. It appears to be a statistical breakdown of heating system usage or adoption rates.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 Residential and Commercial Heating and Heat Pumps (Section 4.4, pp 33-37) 4 5 (a) Please provide...

AI summary The document outlines a series of information requests related to the 2023 Load Forecast Report, focusing on residential and commercial heating technologies, heat pump usage, customer saturation, data sources, peak load impacts, energy consumption estimates, and modeling documentation. These requests aim to gather detailed insights into heating trends and forecast accuracy.

Mass Solution Annualized kWh per Annualized kWh per Solution Solution Nameplate Annualized kWh per Solution Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Tonnage kWh/Ton (Cooling (Heating Only) (Heating and Cooling) Only) Rooftop Hea...

AI summary The document presents a table comparing different heat pump solutions with metrics such as annualized kWh per solution, nameplate tonnage, and kWh per ton for heating and cooling. It includes various systems like rooftop heat pumps, centralized systems, and water source heat pumps, along with their respective energy consumption and efficiency.

eat Pump Water Heater (Air-Water) 976.65 976.65 - Calculator V5 - (October 26, 2018) Old vs. new space/water heating system Fossil Fuel Displacement or Brand New System Is there an existing space cooling system OR were t None Customer Rate...

AI summary The text provides details on a heat pump water heater and a calculator version from October 26, 2018. It includes information on customer rate classes, nameplate tonnage, and assumptions related to energy usage and demand. A section on the 2023 Load Forecast Report is mentioned, though it is redacted.

Mass Solution Annualized kWh per Annualized kWh per Solution Solution Nameplate Annualized kWh per Solution Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Tonnage kWh/Ton (Cooling (Heating Only) (Heating and Cooling) Only) Rooftop Hea...

AI summary The document presents a table comparing various heat pump solutions based on their annualized kWh per solution nameplate tonnage for heating only, heating and cooling, and cooling only. It includes different types of heat pump systems and their corresponding energy consumption metrics.

Heat Pump Water Heater (Air-Water) 976.65 976.65 - Calculator V5 - (October 26, 2018) Old vs. new space/water heating system Fossil Fuel Displacement or Brand New System Is there an existing space cooling system OR were t None Customer Rat...

AI summary The text provides a snippet of a calculator tool used for comparing old and new space/water heating systems, with specific details about a centralized heat pump system (Air-Air) under the R22 customer rate class. It includes assumptions about energy usage and peak demand, but much of the content is redacted as confidential.

Mass Solution Annualized kWh per Annualized kWh per Solution Solution Nameplate Annualized kWh per Solution Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Nameplate Tonnage kWh/Ton Tonnage kWh/Ton (Cooling (Heating Only) (Heating and Cooling) Only) Rooftop Hea...

AI summary The text provides data on the annualized kWh per solution nameplate tonnage for various heat pump systems, including both heating and cooling capacities. It includes details for systems such as rooftop heat pumps, centralized heat pump systems, and water source heat pumps.

2023 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-30 Attachment 1 Page 183 of 355 Nova Scotia Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Study for 2021-2045 Appendix B 2.10 Residential – Mini-Split Heat Pumps As reported in Figure 12, one-quarter...

AI summary The document discusses residential energy efficiency in Nova Scotia, focusing on the adoption of mini-split heat pumps and thermostats. One-quarter of respondents have at least one mini-split heat pump, and the average household has five thermostats, none of which are smart or programmable.

Appendix B-3 NAVIGANT 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys - Residential TABLE 26: How many mini-split heat pumps do you have at your home? Please count only the exterior condensing units at your home. For example, if you have multiple indoor bl...

AI summary This table from the 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys asks residential respondents to count the number of mini-split heat pump exterior condensing units at their homes, providing an example for clarification.

.6 .4 .3 .5 .6 .4 .5 .6 .2 .6 .6 .7 .7 .4 .5 .5 .7 .7 .8 .6 Responses of 'Don't know' were excluded from calculation of the mean. TABLE 32_1: Before today, how familiar were you with: Heat Pump Water Heaters

AI summary The text presents a series of numerical values and mentions the exclusion of 'Don't know' responses from a mean calculation. It also references a table titled 'TABLE 32_1' and a question regarding familiarity with 'Heat Pump Water Heaters' before today.

.5 .7 .7 .8 .6 Responses of 'Don't know' were excluded from calculation of the mean. TABLE 32_1: Before today, how familiar were you with: Heat Pump Water Heaters

AI summary The text provides a statistical summary of responses to a question about familiarity with heat pump water heaters, excluding responses of 'Don't know' from the calculation of the mean.

176 106 20 50 101 71 50 50 39 45 59 36 60 101 45 TABLE 10D: Thinking about your building for your business’ Nova Scotia location where you work... Does your building... Have a packaged terminal heat pump (PTHP)? A PTHP provides heating and...

AI summary The text includes numerical data and a table related to building heating and cooling systems, specifically asking if a building has a packaged terminal heat pump (PTHP), which provides heating and cooling room by room, commonly used in hotels and motels.

Scotia location where you work... Does your building... Have a packaged terminal heat pump (PTHP)? A PTHP provides heating and cooling room by room often for applications common in hotels and motels. REGION BUSINESS PREMISES FT EMPLOYEES S...

AI summary The text discusses the presence of packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP) in buildings across different regions of Nova Scotia, including statistics on their usage in various types of premises and heating methods.

131 76 16 39 80 47 36 41 31 34 46 32 44 80 38 MEAN .2 .2 .5 .0 .2 .2 .1 .1 .5 .1 .2 .5 .3 .3 .2 TABLE 11C: [IF Q10D 'Yes', OR CODED AS ZERO IF Q10D 'No'] How many of each does your business have? Packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP)? A PTHP...

AI summary The text includes numerical data and a table related to the number of packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP) a business may have, with context on their use in heating and cooling applications in hotels and motels.

ZERO IF Q10D 'No'] How many of each does your business have? Packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP)? A PTHP provides heating and cooling room by room often for applications common in hotels and motels.

AI summary The text asks about the number of packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHP) a business has, explaining that PTHPs provide heating and cooling for individual rooms, commonly used in hotels and motels.

VIGANT 2019 Electricity Usage Surveys - Business TABLE 20_2: Before today, how familiar were you with: Heat pump water heater

AI summary The text refers to a 2019 Electricity Usage Survey for businesses, specifically asking about familiarity with heat pump water heaters prior to the survey date.

y, how familiar were you with: Packaged Terminal heat pump (A PTHP provides heating and cooling room by room often for applications such as hotels, motels, apartment buildings, offices, among others)

AI summary The text asks about familiarity with Packaged Terminal Heat Pumps (PTHPs), which provide heating and cooling on a room-by-room basis for various applications such as hotels, motels, apartment buildings, and offices.

2023 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-44 Attachment 1 Page 8 of 8 Heating Equipment Stock Rollover  E3’s electrification study scenarios ultimately yield near-complete electrification of residential and commercial buildings by 2050; to ach...

AI summary The document discusses E3’s electrification study scenarios, which predict near-complete electrification of residential and commercial buildings by 2050, primarily through heat pump adoption by the 2030s. The analysis highlights the role of stock rollover in influencing the pace of heat pump adoption and aligns growth in heat pumps with NSP forecasts.

-9.2% -0.3% -5.6% 11.0% load Note: Res Sales = Existing Customer Load + New Customer Load + EV Load + Solar Load + RTR + DSM. Source: NSPI load forecast report Appendix B. In addition to the outsized contribution of EVs and new customer lo...

AI summary Residential load growth is driven by EVs, new customers, and electrification (heat pumps, electric water heating). Existing customer consumption is projected to rise 4.7% due to electrification and higher household compensation. Heat pump adoption is forecasted to reach 100% by 2050, with 2022 installations prompting revised projections.

rojected to decline by 0.9 percent between 2022–2032 in the 2022 load forecast analysis, the same term is projected to increase by 7.4 percent over the period 2023–2033 in the latest load forecast. 19 Meanwhile, the projected intensity for...

AI summary Load forecasts show conflicting projections: a 0.9% decline (2022–2032) versus a 7.4% increase (2023–2033). Heat pump intensity in XCool decreased in 2023 forecasts but was offset by higher regression coefficients. NSPI's models show significant discrepancies with E3's estimates, requiring further analysis using AMI data.

ates that the data collected from these pilots will be used to inform future load forecasts. 22 Load Forecast Report, p. 35. 23 Load Forecast Report, p. 37. 24 Load Forecast Report, pp. 78-79. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence Regard...

AI summary Synapse recommends NSPI include heat pump data and consider EV load in future forecasts. NSPI excludes heat pumps due to limited adoption data, though uptake has doubled in two years. EV load is projected to grow significantly by 2033.

Evidence Regarding Nova Scotia Power’s 2023 Load Forecast 27 7. QUESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS In this Evidence we ask for further clarifications and make several recommendations: 1. We ask that NSPI explore the benefits of increasing DSM l...

AI summary The document requests clarifications and recommendations for Nova Scotia Power regarding its 2023 load forecast, including exploring increased DSM levels, analyzing heat pump impacts, leveraging water heater demand response data, and addressing EV adoption and load management strategies.

ctrification levels (page 21). 13. We ask NSPI to explore the potential for greater industrial savings (page 22). 14. We ask NSPI to explore the impacts of real time rates (page 23). 15. We ask NSPI to explore the impacts of increases in i...

AI summary The text outlines various requests for NSPI to explore and evaluate the impacts of industrial electrification, real-time rates, and technologies like heat pumps and thermal storage. It also recommends sensitivity analyses to mitigate peak load increases. The summary supports NSPI’s efforts to improve load forecast transparency and accuracy.

d be adjusted upward to reflect greater levels of incremental 24 savings. 25 26 NS Power Response: 27 28 This recommendation is discussed in Section 4.6 of the Load Forecast Report. 29 DATE FILED: September 14, 2023 Page 15 of 25 2023 Load...

AI summary The NS Power responds to recommendations regarding load forecasting, clarifying that system peak calculations account for interruptible customers and demand response (DR) impacts. It notes that time-varying pricing and AMI-enabled strategies are already factored into peak forecasts, with updates pending Smart Grid and pilot data. Heat pump performance during peak conditions is under investigation.

2. Number of customers using primarily electric resistance heating, 27 3. Number of customers using supplemental resistance heating, 28 4. Number of customers using heat pumps for primary heating, 29 5. Number of customers using heat pumps...

AI summary The document requests data on customer heating technology usage, including electric resistance, heat pumps, oil, and natural gas, as well as projections for new customers from 2023 to 2033. It seeks detailed breakdowns of primary and supplemental heating methods across residential and commercial sectors.

Document: 303590 (P-194) Date Filed: 05/30/23 UARB Page 3 1 Request IR-5: 2 Page 33 of the Application lines 5 to 6 state: “The end-use model uses an estimated saturation of 3 40 percent of customers supplying their heat via heat pumps in...

AI summary The UARB requests explanations for increased heat pump saturation estimates (33% to 40%), effectiveness of heat pump water heaters, verification of EV adoption data, and bi-directional charger installations. Questions focus on forecast justification, program timelines, and EV data accuracy.

on Requests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2023 Load Forecast Report – M11108 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-01: 2 Reference: NS Power 2023 Load Forecast, Page 33, Lines 6-7 3 “The est...

AI summary Two requests challenge NS Power's 2023 Load Forecast Report: (1) methodology for estimating 20,800 heat pump installations in 2022, and (2) details on COP and capacity curves modeled for heat pumps, including assumptions about ductless vs. ducted systems. The requests seek transparency on modeling approaches and data sources.