Topic:"Heat Pumps" in M12861

6 4.1 Historical Class Sales and Energy Data .......................................................................... 18 7 4.2 2025 Data Modifications Due to the Cyber Incident ........................................................ 19...

AI summary The document outlines sections covering historical energy data, modifications due to a cyber incident, weather data, economic information, end-use trends (including heat pumps, EVs, solar PV), and price data, highlighting key areas for analysis in the regulatory proceeding.

toric data. This method also allows these 2 items to be tracked more directly to help fine-tune future forecasts. Key end uses are discussed 3 individually below. 4 5 4.5.1 Heat Pumps

AI summary The text discusses the tracking of items to improve future forecasts and mentions heat pumps as a key end use to be discussed individually.

6 Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province as more customers find heat pumps an efficient 7 way to heat and cool buildings as well as providing environmental and financial benefits. The end- 8 use model uses an estimated saturatio...

AI summary Heat pump usage in Nova Scotia is growing, but the forecast for 2026 shows a decline due to the closure of rebate programs. The number of installations is expected to drop by around 20% in 2026, followed by a gradual decline of 2.5% per year. Despite this, strong uptake is still anticipated, though at lower levels than in recent years.

025 forecast 25 because of the reduction in the forecast number of installs, as discussed above. Additionally, a 26 portion of the heat pumps become hybrid from 2028, further reducing heating intensity (see 27 Section 4.5.2). 14 https://ww...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses a reduction in the forecast number of heat pump installations, partly due to some heat pumps becoming hybrid from 2028, which reduces heating intensity. The report references external links related to home heating system rebates and updates.

1 Figure 22: Residential Heat Pump Forecast Overall Total % Overall Overall Overall % Install Heating Cumulative Install % Sat. % Sat. Cooling Year Non-Elec. Intensity New Elec. for for Intensity Heat (kWh/house) Installs Heat Heating 16 C...

AI summary The document presents a forecast for residential heat pump installations in Nova Scotia from 2026 to 2036, showing increasing numbers of installations, the percentage of non-electric and electric heat pumps, and the heating and cooling intensities in kWh per house over time.

model. The NAE heat‑pump category is split into hybrid and non‑hybrid 16 segments based on an assumed participation rate of 50 percent (27,000 customers by 2036). 17 Heating intensity is reduced for the hybrid segment to reflect the impact...

AI summary The text discusses the segmentation of the NAE heat-pump category into hybrid and non-hybrid segments, with a 50% participation rate assumed by 2036. It also mentions a 7% reduction in heating intensity for the hybrid segment, based on a scenario where hybrid events are triggered below -10°C.

heating 16 scenario Year Energy Adjustment (GWh) 2028 -7 2032 -35 2036 -75 17 18 4.5.3 Water Heaters 19 NS Power anticipates that some customers who convert their oil heating systems to heat pumps 20 will also convert their hot water suppl...

AI summary NS Power projects that the adoption of heat pumps and electric water heaters will increase, leading to a decrease in energy demand by 2036. However, the growth rate is slightly lower than previously forecasted due to fewer heat pump installations. NS Power is collaborating with E1 on a demand response program involving direct control of water heaters.

ation, changed class distribution. Peak Model Updated based on analysis of 2026 system peak (25th January). Specific directives from the 2025 Load Forecast 5 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report notes a significant reduction in heat pump installations, primarily due to the discontinuation of financial incentives such as the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability (OHPA) program and Home Heating System Rebates in 2025. The forecast predicts a decrease of ~4,000 installations per year compared to the 2025 Load Forecast, with corresponding declines in heat pump heating and cooling demand by 2035.

asses, especially General Demand). Class 2025 Forecast (GWh) 2026 Forecast (GWh) Residential 117 49 Commercial 176 255 Industrial 128 117 Total 421 421 12 . REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E P...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report compares residential electricity demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key factors influencing the change include less solar generation, higher EV sales, less RTR migration, lower heat pump penetration, and a delayed, weaker hybrid impact.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-1, Section 4.5.2. 4 5 (a) Please provide a narrative description of each of the "potential hybrid programs 6 which have been modelled by NS Power." (p. 37) 7 8 (b) Please provide the modelling refer...

AI summary The document contains a request (IR-1) directed to NS Power, asking for detailed information on potential hybrid programs, modeling data, documents from a hybrid heating working group, details on heat pump systems, explanations for setting heat use to zero, and clarification on peak mitigation forecasts and energy reduction figures.

Methods - Starting point = electric heat usage load shape from contracted analytics vendor. - Based on their disaggregation of customer AMI data; resulting shape is the portion of customer consumption attributed to heating only. - The shap...

AI summary The analysis begins with electric heat usage load shape derived from customer AMI data, focusing on 22,130 customers with high confidence heat pump detection. The shape includes signals from heat pumps and secondary electric heating and is referred to as the 'status quo.'

Methods - Heat use set to zero for hybrid events,which occur according to 3 scenarios: - 1. Top 88 NSR hours - 2. CPP events - 3. Hours when T < -10 o C - Hybrid impact = hybrid scenario load shape minus status quo. - Hybrid impact is then...

AI summary The document outlines methods for calculating hybrid impact in the context of heat pump installations. Heat use is set to zero for hybrid events under three scenarios, and hybrid impact is calculated by comparing load shapes and scaling based on the number of heat pump installations from 2028 to 2050.

(c) Please refer to CA IR-1 part (f). Hybrid event trigger scenario Event hours 22 (b) The baseline residential electric-heating load shape is derived from 2022 AMI data and has 23 not been updated. Yes, NS Power considers the load shape t...

AI summary The baseline residential electric-heating load shape is derived from 2022 AMI data and has not been updated. NS Power considers it sufficiently representative of heat pump owners due to the high confidence level in detecting heat pump ownership and the large sample size, but expects heat usage behavior to change as heat pump penetration increases.

2 (c) The factors listed were not considered explicitly in the adjusted forecast. Please refer to 3 Synapse IR-5 for additional information on the new housing estimates. 1 Request IR-4: 2 3 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section...

AI summary The text refers to a request for information regarding hybrid heating participant configurations, the basis for a 50% participation rate, and criteria for NS Power-declared CPP events. It also references a report and other documents for additional details.

2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Inc. Information Requests 1 Request IR-5: 27 equipment (e.g., bidirectional wallboxes, inverters, integration systems) is not widely 28 available or certifi...

AI summary The document discusses NS Power's responses to information requests regarding the 2026 Load Forecast Report, including the lack of provincial or federal programs supporting V2G deployment and the definition of 'full heat pump' in the context of the forecast.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 and collect heat pump and total house hourly load data, and measure heat-pump 2 average energy use and demand impacts from the program. The results of that study 3 inform the modelled heating intensity, as outlined in pa...

AI summary NS Power is analyzing AMI data to better understand heating load patterns, particularly for heat pumps and hybrid systems. They have not yet conducted a large-scale analysis but are using disaggregation methods. Forecast data on residential customers and heating technologies is provided in attachments.

Q: What is the heating intensity forecast? A: NS Power's load forecast includes a forecast of residential heating intensity for homes with and without heat pumps, which is measured as kWh per house. The heating intensity forecast is intend...

AI summary NS Power's load forecast includes a residential heating intensity forecast, measured in kWh per house, which considers the impact of new and replaced heating systems, particularly electric heat pumps. The adoption rate of heat pumps is a critical variable in this forecast.

nto the spreadsheet with no explanation. These two changes interact because it is unclear whether NS Power used a heating intensity enhancement, a heating intensity trend factor, or some other method. To summarize these changes, [Table 2](...

AI summary The document discusses changes in residential heating intensity for heat pump and non-heat pump customers, noting a shift in methodology and an increasing trend in heating intensity due to factors like larger floor space and comfort requirements.

No Heat Pump Heat Pump Ratio 2022 1,357 2,005 148% 2023 1,414 2,250 159% 2024 1,594 3,128 196% 2025 1,500 3,188 213% 2026 1,520 2,521 166% Q: Can you explain this in simpler terms?

AI summary The table shows the number of heat pumps installed and the ratio of installations between years from 2022 to 2026, indicating a significant increase in installations over the period.

A: First, looking at NS Power's various forecasts for 2033, it is evident that NS Power's heating intensity forecast in this load forecast has returned almost to the level projected in 2023. The concept that heat pumps were responsible for...

AI summary The analysis discusses NS Power's updated heating intensity forecasts for 2033, noting that they have returned to levels projected in 2023. The initial claim that heat pumps were responsible for unallocated variance in the 2024 report has been omitted by NS Power.

Q: Please summarize the residential hybrid heating forecast. A: NS Power adopted a 2036 forecast of 48 MW of peak mitigation for a residential hybrid heating program, with an energy reduction of 83 GWh.[11](#page-10-1) NS Power explains th...

AI summary NS Power forecasts 48 MW of peak mitigation and 83 GWh of energy reduction from a residential hybrid heating program by 2036. This scenario involves customers using heat pumps with non-electric backup systems during extreme cold, modeled with three temperature triggers for switching from electric to non-electric heating.

Q: Does NS Power's residential hybrid heating forecast match E3's scenario? A: No. E3 described its scenario somewhat differently. E3 stated that, "Heat pumps are modeled such that below the balance point temperature [of -1°C] both the hea...

AI summary NS Power's residential hybrid heating forecast does not match E3's scenario. E3's model assumes both heat pumps and supplemental devices contribute below -1°C, while NS Power argues the energy reduction in E3's scenario is not attainable.

5.1. Heat Pumps NS Power's 2026 load forecast has advanced in incorporating hybrid electric heating into its forecast for the residential sector, while continuing to rely largely on E3's prior assumptions for the commercial sector. We have...

AI summary NS Power's 2026 load forecast includes hybrid electric heating for the residential sector, but concerns are raised about the timing and participation rate assumptions for this technology.

Recommendations For hybrid heating, NS Power's assumed participation among new installations – 50 percent of NAE systems beginning in 2028 – does not ramp gradually. NS Power should apply a more moderate ramp rate. Meanwhile, NS Power shou...

AI summary The recommendations suggest that NS Power should adjust its assumptions regarding hybrid heating participation rates, expand eligibility for existing systems with lower participation rates, and reassess the commercial hybrid-heating trajectory. NS Power is also advised to clarify and update efficiency metrics and calibration methods for heat pumps.

Figure 1: 2030 Heat Pump Heating Intensity and Saturation Load Forecast Report Forecast Overall Heat Pump Heating Intensity in 2030 (KWh/house) Forecast Heat Pump Saturation (%) in 2030 2022 2,005 60 2023 2,250 65 2024 3,128 64 2025 3,188...

AI summary Figure 1 shows the forecasted heat pump heating intensity and saturation from 2022 to 2026, highlighting variations influenced by changes in saturation levels over time.

2.2.2 Recommendation 2 The Board should immediately reject NS Power's flawed residential hybrid heating forecast as unsupported by facts or sound reasoning. The Board should direct NS Power to instead adopt a forecast based on its proposed...

AI summary The Board is recommended to reject NS Power's residential hybrid heating forecast due to its lack of factual or logical support. Instead, NS Power should use a forecast based on a proposed hybrid heat pump adoption rate and associated energy savings and peak demand reductions.

Request IR-7: - Heat Pumps (Section 4.5.1, pp. 36-37 and 66-67) - a. The Report provides a residential heat pump forecast, including annual cumulative new installations, the percentage installed in non-electric and electric-heat homes, ove...

AI summary Request IR-7 seeks clarification on NS Power's definition of a 'full heat pump' and asks for a forecast of residential heat pump usage and demand from 2026 to 2036, distinguishing between homes previously using electric and non-electric heating.

1 c. Please explain how the "overall heating intensity" values in Figure 22 were 2 developed and how they relate to the HP Heat values shown in Figure 46. 3 d. Please provide any AMI, billing, or other empirical validation NS Power has 4 c...

AI summary The text requests an explanation of how 'overall heating intensity' values in Figure 22 were developed and their relationship to HP Heat values in Figure 46. It also asks for empirical validation of heat pump impacts and detailed data on residential heating technologies, customer numbers, and assumptions used in estimating heat pump energy and peak impacts.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-1, Section 4.5.2. 4 5 (a) Please provide a narrative description of each of the "potential hybrid programs which 6 have been modelled by NS Power." (p. 37) 7 8 (b) Please provide the modelling refer...

AI summary Request IR-1 seeks detailed information from NS Power on hybrid heating programs, including modeling data, heat pump system types, energy reduction assumptions, and alignment with provincial electrification policies. It questions the methodology behind energy use forecasts, backup heating system usage, and the validity of hybrid program outcomes.