Topic:"Infrastructure Planning" in M08059

ovision Constraints ........................................... 17 Emission Constraints ............................................................................................................... 17 Available Resource New Build Costs ....

AI summary The document outlines sections of a modeling analysis covering emission constraints, resource costs, wind capacity credits, transmission infrastructure, coal plant retirement timelines, and sensitivity analyses. It references a final report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. on thermal generation utilization and optimization for Nova Scotia Power.

This result illustrates the value of wind and energy efficiency resources in comparison to gas, oil, and import energy, which in general are otherwise the marginal energy sources.  All scenarios utilizing a load forecast that reflects med...

AI summary The text compares wind and energy efficiency resources to fossil fuels and imports, showing that higher demand-side management (DSM) and wind capacity accelerate coal unit retirements (as early as 2024) and reduce planning reserve requirements by 157 MW by 2029. Scenario 1, based on 2017 forecasts, retains thermal fleet capacity through 2030, but other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs.

Plexos selects more wind than this in all scenarios). However, as noted, all other scenarios demonstrate lower NPVRR costs than this reference case, illustrating the critical 1 In this context, “wholesale” implies supply and energy‐efficie...

AI summary The analysis highlights that alternative resources like energy efficiency and wind generation can reduce NPVRR costs and influence coal unit retirement timelines. It emphasizes the importance of considering peak load reduction strategies over reliance on wind alone, with implications for resource planning and cost management in Nova Scotia's energy sector.

lexos does not retire a second unit and build a new battery and CT resource early in the period (as in Scenario 4), but instead builds a CC resource and retains the second coal unit. These sensitivities illustrate the marginal nature of th...

AI summary The study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030, analyzing scenarios involving coal, combined cycle (CC), and battery resources. Sensitivities highlight the marginal nature of resource decisions in Plexos modeling, emphasizing input assumption uncertainties.

ergy Economics (Synapse) with undertaking a modeling exercise to shed light on the overall economic implications of continued reliance on the existing thermal fleet to meet electric load requirements. Based on the Terms of Reference and th...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics conducted a modeling exercise using Plexos to analyze the economic impacts of relying on existing thermal generation. The study involved data from NSPI, scenario modeling, and revenue requirement analysis to evaluate system scenarios.

nd assumptions in a memo dated October 16, 2017. Additional updates to these assumptions, also based on stakeholder comments, were provided in December 2017 memo. The key aspects are described below. 2.1. Modeling Methodology Plexos Synaps...

AI summary The document outlines Synapse's use of the Plexos Integrated Energy Model to simulate Nova Scotia's energy futures through long-term (LT) capacity expansion and short-term (ST) production cost modeling. Key factors include capital/production costs, system constraints (emissions limits, transmission), and resource optimization under NSPI's planning framework.

ractual quantities (NS Block and Supplemental Energy) and allows for both Maritime Link Surplus Energy to be available for purchase and for incremental non‐firm imports (and exports) to New Brunswick. Synapse developed a modeling plan and...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics collaborated with NSPI to model thermal generation optimization using Plexos, incorporating updated fuel costs, sustaining capital estimates, and renewable energy sources (wind, solar, battery storage). The analysis included reserve margin requirements aligned with NPCC reliability criteria and scenarios for new capacity additions.

napse set the Plexos model to maintain a 20 percent reserve margin in all years when making build/retire decisions, in accordance with Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) reliability criteria. Additional modeling scenarios were des...

AI summary The analysis uses the Plexos model with a 20% reserve margin per NPCC reliability criteria, exploring scenarios involving peak load, wind capacity credit, transmission expansion, capital expenditures, battery storage costs, gas prices, and coal plant retirements. Post-processing of model outputs standardizes data and calculates revenue requirements to compare NPV of scenarios.

ze the format of the data to facilitate analysis, and, second, to build a revenue requirement calculation in order to compare the overall net present values of the various scenarios and sensitivities. As a first step, Synapse takes the raw...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics processes Plexos modeling outputs into Excel for revenue requirement calculations and NPV comparisons. The analysis highlights Plexos' inability to model Tufts Cove unit retirements due to software limitations, recommending system constraint evaluations prior to the next IRP process.

enously by Synapse—fixed O&M, sustaining capital costs, new build costs, incremental demand‐side management (DSM) costs, New Brunswick transmission costs, and Nova Scotia Maritime Link fixed payments. Fixed O&M is calculated by multiplying...

AI summary The text outlines cost components for energy planning, including fixed O&M, sustaining capital, new build, DSM, and transmission costs. It details calculation methods for each, such as annualizing capital costs and using nameplate capacity. Modeling scenarios in Plexos are discussed, focusing on capacity expansion, dispatch, and unit commitment under various sensitivities.

stimates for CC and CT technologies;15 and to examine the build, retirement, and dispatch response when Plexos steam and transmission constraint parameters are relaxed.16 Table 1. Modeling Scenarios

AI summary The text discusses analyzing carbon capture (CC) and carbon transport (CT) technologies using Plexos modeling software, focusing on build, retirement, and dispatch responses when steam and transmission constraints are relaxed. It references Table 1 outlining modeling scenarios.

Yes Note: “RetirePath1” reflects additional forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21. It reflects sequential retirement in Plexos of Lingan 4 (2023), Lingan 3 (2024), Lingan 1 (2025), and Trenton 5 (2026). Sensitivities...

AI summary The text outlines forced retirements of coal plants beyond Lingan 2 in 2020/21, including specific retirements in Plexos (Lingan 4, 3, 1, Trenton 5). It details sensitivity analyses on battery costs, natural gas prices, thermal units, and transmission constraints, aiming to explore system flexibility and efficiency gains under relaxed modeling conditions.

2.5%/year 20 None built. decline for 10 years Source: NSPI, Synapse assumptions. Solar PV The capacity expansion module of Plexos did not build out any solar PV resources. Solar PV resources do not provide capacity credit in the winter‐pea...

AI summary The text discusses the lack of solar PV capacity expansion in the winter-peaking region and the potential for behind-the-meter solar PV installations. It also references sustaining capital cost estimates for the thermal fleet provided by NSPI in the 2017 10-Year System Outlook report.

ing capital costs; alternative resource cost declines) render these bookend scenarios valuable. At a minimum, they provide a bounding estimate on a more aggressive coal plant retirement policy option. Sensitivities We have run additional s...

AI summary The document discusses sensitivity analyses on capital costs, battery costs, natural gas prices, and unit availability, as well as scenarios involving coal plant retirements and transmission flexibility. These analyses aim to evaluate the impact of various factors on energy utilization and system efficiency in Nova Scotia.

nd pipeline system. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 22 Final Report 3. MODELING RESULTS 3.1. Capacity Balance, Build and Retirement Results Planning Reserve Requirements – Capacity...

AI summary This section discusses modeling results related to capacity balance, build and retirement of generation resources. It highlights planning reserve margins (PRM) by scenario and year, and details how the Plexos model optimizes retirement and build decisions based on cost minimization.

ble 8a below lists the retirement and the build results for the initial scenarios executed; Table 8b lists the retirement and build results for the low battery cost and fuel price sensitivity runs. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Therm...

AI summary The text references tables and figures that outline the retirement and build results for various scenarios, as well as planning reserve margin trends. These scenarios include different levels of demand-side management, battery costs, and fuel price sensitivities, and are part of an analysis related to thermal generation utilization and optimization.

g Reserve Margin Trends by Scenario –Low Battery Price Sensitivities Planning Reserve Margin Low Battery Cost Sensitivity Runs 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028...

AI summary The text presents reserve margin trends under different scenarios, including low battery price and gas price sensitivities, with various planning scenarios such as Sc1LB, Sc8LB, Sc13LB, Sc26LB, and Sc1 Ref, indicating analysis of energy planning and resource optimization.

s Sc13LG Ref/NB Trans/AdditionalWind/LowGas Sc13HG Ref/NB Trans/AdditionalWind/HighGas Sc1 Ref Sc2 Med DSM Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 26 Final Report Table 7. Planning Reserve...

AI summary The document presents planning reserve margin trends for various scenarios through 2030, focusing on Sc1 Ref, which shows a steady increase in reserve margins from 2018 to 2023, followed by a gradual decline through 2030.

22.0% 22.3% 33.7% 45.0% Sc13HG Ref/NB Trans/AdditionalWind/HighGas 23.4% 22.8% 22.7% 22.1% 21.3% 20.9% 21.3% 21.9% 22.8% 23.5% 22.9% 22.3% 21.7% Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 27...

AI summary The text presents data and scenarios related to energy generation and utilization, including percentages and a table outlining builds and retirements of energy resources from 2018 to 2040. It references a report by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and a matter number (M08059) related to NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization.

Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20 5 Med DSM/HighSusCap Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Ret Lin 4 Ret Batt 40 Batt 20 Batt 40 Batt 20 Ret Batt 20 Batt 40 Ret Batt 20 New Ref/HighWindCapCredi 7 Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 CC253 Ret Pt Tupp Ret Batt 20 t Batt 20 Batt 20 Bat...

AI summary The text appears to be a diagram or schematic representation involving various components such as 'Batt 20', 'Wind 100', 'Ret Lin 2', 'Ret Batt 40', and 'CC253'. It may relate to energy systems, infrastructure planning, or grid modernization, but no explicit discussion or argument is present.

Batt 20 Batt 20 Ret Lin 4 Ret Lin 3 New New Ret Tren 5 25 Ref/RetirePath1 Ret Lin 2 CT100 CT200 Ret Lin 1 New CC253 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 New Wind 100 New CT100 CC253 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 40 Batt 20 Batt 20 Ret Lin 4...

AI summary The text outlines a visual representation of a power system, including components such as wind generation, transmission lines, and transformers. It references the retirement of certain lines and the addition of new components like CT100 and CC253, suggesting a reconfiguration or upgrade of the grid.

New CC253 Ret Batt 100 MedDSM/HighWindCa Low Battery Cost Sensitivities 8LB pCredit/BatteryCostDe Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Ret Lin 4 cline Ref/NB 13LB Trans/AdditionalWind/ Ret Lin 4 Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 100 Wind 10...

AI summary The text presents a visual representation of various components and cost sensitivities related to a new CC253 project, including battery costs, wind power, and transmission lines. It includes references to Ret Batt 100, Ret Lin 2, Ret Lin 4, and other related terms, suggesting an analysis of different scenarios involving battery cost declines and wind power integration.

Batt 100 Batt 40 100 Ret Batt 40 New 1HG Ref/HighGas Wind 100 Ret Lin 2 New CC253 Ret CC253 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20 Batt 20

AI summary The text appears to be a diagram or schematic related to energy infrastructure, showing components such as batteries, wind generation, and transmission lines, along with references to projects like CC253 and components like CT100 and CT200.

tion could be established. We anticipate that the Regional Electricity Cooperation and Strategic Infrastructure Investment (RECSI) report will shed more light on options for the Province to consider. 4.2. Recommendations Based on our analy...

AI summary The report recommends next steps for NSPI, including confirming energy efficiency potential, evaluating demand response, investigating battery storage costs, and monitoring sustaining capital costs for the thermal fleet. These steps aim to support the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process and ensure accurate modeling of resource options.

Appendix 5.1 Terms of Reference Response to Stakeholder Comments on Proposed Terms of Reference Plexos Optimization Analysis / NSPI Thermal Fleet Retention August 1, 2017 Synapse has reviewed comments received in response to the June 29, 2...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics adjusted the Terms of Reference for a Plexos Optimization Analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet through 2030. Key changes include extended stakeholder input periods, scenario analysis with varied assumptions, and clarification that the study is a planning exercise, not an operational assessment. The analysis will compare thermal fleet retention against alternatives like retirement and renewable integration.

NSPI 2017 Plus 50% +25%, +100% Wind Capacity Contribution 2017 NSPI 0% ERIS, 17% NRIS 20% All Wind 25% All Wind (GE Study) NSPI 2017 $400 Million + New Eng. Capac. Either With or Without NB Smaller intertie connection, NB Transmission Mark...

AI summary The document outlines scenarios for wind capacity contributions, NB transmission costs, and coal retire paths. It compares 2017 NSPI baseline figures with alternative scenarios involving higher wind capacity, different transmission strategies, and coal phase-out timelines. Key parameters include financial thresholds, transmission options, and credit implications for various retire paths.

We will make the following changes to input assumptions: • The “High Sustaining Capital” costs will reflect a 25% increase over NSPI’s 2017 estimates, instead of a 50% increase. • We will incorporate Efficiency One’s recommendation to redu...

AI summary The document outlines revised input assumptions for a regulatory proceeding, including a reduced 25% increase in 'High Sustaining Capital' costs, adjusted DSM savings projections, updated natural gas and solid fuel pricing, revised battery cost curves (5% annual decline over 15 years), and exclusion of broader electrification scenarios beyond heat pumps. ST scenarios will be run for retirement paths through 2040, with the Industrial Group providing input.

s of resources. Our aim is to provide a modeling analysis that shows the costs of retention versus the costs of alternative resource plans that use a different mix of resources to meet capacity needs. The analysis proceeds in an electric s...

AI summary The analysis compares the costs of retaining coal resources versus alternative resource plans, considering declining renewable energy costs, increasing coal costs, infrastructure changes like the Maritime Link, and carbon emission reductions. It evaluates economic viability of coal amid aging plants and uncertain gas prices.

ns, throughout the entire period (2018-2042). Modeling Plan Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Modeling Plan and Key Input Assumptions 1 Appendix 5.6 REDACTED The table below lists the initial set of scenarios that we will run using the PLEXOS...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. outlines a modeling plan using PLEXOS LT and ST modules to analyze 30 scenarios over 2018–2042, focusing on capacity expansion, input assumptions, and production cost analysis. The plan includes reference scenarios, sensitivity cases, and temporal granularity for production cost assessments.

The modeling plan includes scenarios with three different “net” load levels. Peak shaving and increased energy efficiency resources in Nova Scotia are critical resources that cannot be as well-represented in PLEXOS as the supply-side alter...

AI summary The modeling plan uses three scenarios (reference, mid DSM, high DSM) to evaluate demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency in Nova Scotia. It prioritizes demand-side resources due to PLEXOS' limitations in representing them. Mid DSM assumes 2.0%/year energy efficiency gains, while high DSM adds peak shaving through demand response. Costs are calculated separately using utility-specific metrics.

ive individual years for ST production cost (8760 hour) runs (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040). Specific Capacity Resource Options to be Considered in Capacity Expansion/Retirement Analysis The following resource options will be made avai...

AI summary The document outlines resource options for capacity expansion and retirement analysis, including existing thermal plants, renewables, storage, and import capacities. It details parameters for PLEXOS optimization and the baseline resource mix, including NSPI's contributions.

llions of dollars of projected sustaining capital on those facilities still remains outstanding. In addition, analysis of storage options and wind capacity contributions deserve greater consideration. In order to move forward with these ma...

AI summary The Board will engage Synapse to analyze generation resource utilization and cost-effective options, requiring data from NSPI. Reclassifying thermal units for capacity purposes is deferred due to the 2017-2019 rate stabilization period. Stakeholders will review Terms of Reference, and the Board acknowledges stakeholder input.

e 1 (response to NS UARB IR‐6, Attachment 1, page 2) show planned expenditures only through 2024. If TUC1 is not retired in 2025, it is reasonable to expect additional sustaining capital requirements. Sustaining capital investment in the t...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's projected $445M in sustaining capital expenditures for its thermal fleet (2017-2026), noting uncertainty due to aging plants and lack of sensitivity analysis. Specific large capital injections ($10M-$15M) are highlighted for plants like Lingan 3/4 and Trenton 5/6. The 2014 IRP used a levelized approach rather than year-specific sustaining capital requirements.

NOTE: Forecast as of 2016 10‐Year System Outlook Report. Actual Capital Filing for 2017 will be provided in 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan. Figure 12 Investment Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Grand Total...

AI summary The text presents a capital expenditure plan table spanning 2017–2026, detailing investments across categories like Biomass, CTs, and LIN projects. It references a 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report and notes the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan will provide actual figures.

$ 505,625 $ 8,912,500 TUC3 $ 824,375 $ 793,125 $ 3,280,625 $ 868,125 $ 1,255,625 $ 524,375 $ 768,125 $ 543,125 $ 868,125 $ 505,625 $ 10,231,250 TUC6 $ 1,822,500 $ 1,997,500 $ 4,847,500 $ 2,297,500 $ 4,747,500 $ 1,822,500 $ 2,197,500 $ 1,89...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan's eight action items influence NSPI's thermal fleet economics by affecting peak demand and capacity contributions, directly impacting resource adequacy requirements and alternative capacity resource availability.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The text outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing fossil fuel capital expenditures, conducting wind penetration studies, regional coordination, evaluating wind capacity value, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These focus on reliability, transmission, and renewable integration.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The text outlines IRP action items, including evaluating Mersey Development and assessing the economic viability of retaining coal units versus renewable resources. It criticizes NSPI's lack of rigorous analysis on sustaining coal fleet investments and notes the 2014 IRP's incomplete examination of coal retention's economic optimality.

nvolved longer retention of coal units” (4/13/2017 presentation, slide 27). However, the 2014 IRP did not rigorously examine whether or not longer retention of the coal fleet was economically optimal. Instead, the 2014 IRP analyses include...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) inadequately evaluated the economic optimality of retaining coal units, as it failed to account for surplus capacity differences between resource plans. The analysis used sustaining capital cost assumptions without adjusting for surplus capacity retirement, leading to unsupported conclusions about coal retention.

‐stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well‐supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis.2 2 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis for not adequately considering alternative capacity options to coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative planning and demand-side management (DSM) strategies to achieve cost-effective surplus capacity.

through programmatic efforts to achieve peak demand reduction through demand response options beyond those currently obtained via interruptible industrial load. 2 – Conduct Additional System Studies NSPI has not yet conducted any updates t...

AI summary NSPI proposes demand response beyond interruptible industrial load for peak reduction but lacks updated studies on wind penetration and transmission support. Storage options are deemed non-competitive based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid, though broader system reliability and coal plant retirement scenarios require further analysis.

ge options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.6 However, this conclusion was based on an assessment of the Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid,7 and did not capture the value analysis (e.g., during the 2020s). An i...

AI summary The text discusses the cost competitiveness of renewable energy options, referencing the GE wind integration study and Lazard's storage analysis. It notes that the GE study is outdated and that synthetic inertia could replace traditional support. An iterative modeling approach could reduce costs in future IRPs but wasn't used due to time constraints.

t paths. Additional firm capacity could also be available across the Maritime Link to meet resource adequacy needs. 6 – Demand Response and DSM Resource Commitments through Energy Efficiency Programs NSPI’s need for capacity resources is p...

AI summary NSPI's capacity needs are based on meeting peak load, which occurs infrequently. Demand response mechanisms could reduce the need for up to 300 MW of capacity. The 2016 load duration curve illustrates that peak loads are brief, suggesting demand response could address most capacity requirements.

7009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 10 Based on 600 MW (20% ‐ 12%). 7 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI's load forecast projects increasing peak demand, citing Synapse's report as justification. However, Synapse recommends refining peak load calculations due to historically flat historical peaks. The text argues for urgent analysis of alternatives to coal plant investments, emphasizing a portfolio approach over single substitutions to ensure cost-effective, reliable service.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 11 NSPI response to NS UARB IR‐2 (b‐c)....

AI summary NSPI emphasizes rigorous analysis of demand-side options for capacity expansion, critiques its own example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, and stresses the need for updated assumptions in supply-side alternatives. The analysis must address ramping requirements and wind resource integration.

Peak Season Demand, Resources, and Reserve Margins Demand (MW) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total Internal Demand 5,584 5,608 5,627 5,623 5,622 5,608 5,580 5,552 5,509 5,518 Demand Response 272 272 272 272 271 271 271...

AI summary The table presents historical and projected data on peak season demand, available resources, reserve margins, and resource excess/shortfall in Nova Scotia from 2017 to 2026, highlighting trends in energy system reliability and planning.

240 257 290 324 375 357 Prospective 361 218 309 314 315 332 365 398 450 426 NPCC CP-8 Working Group 46 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW Peak Season Reserve Margins 10-Year On-Peak Generation Ant...

AI summary The document presents a 2016 long-range adequacy overview by the NPCC CP-8 Working Group, focusing on peak season reserve margins and 10-year on-peak generation additions. It was approved by the RCC on December 6, 2016, highlighting infrastructure planning and system reliability considerations.

6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW Peak Season Reserve Margins 10-Year On-Peak Generation Anticipated Additions

AI summary The NPCC's 2016 Long Range Adequacy Overview discusses peak season reserve margins and 10-year on-peak generation additions, highlighting infrastructure planning and capacity market participation considerations for power system reliability.

Cc David S. MacDougall Direct +1 (902) 444 8561 [email protected] COOPER 1969 Upper Water Street Suite 1300 Purdy's Wharf Tower II Halifax NS Canada B3J 2V1 Tel +1 (902) 425 6500 Fax +1 (902) 425 6350 Our File: 100384 Apri...

AI summary Port Hawkesbury Paper Limited Partnership (PHP) submits comments on Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report, highlighting a significant disagreement between NSPI and Board consultants Liberty and Synapse regarding the approach to determining future use of NSPI's thermal generation fleet.

a through a cap and trade program) and a planned natural gas regulation. NSPI has therefore indicated that it is making decisions with a strategy of achieving the “utmost flexibility” in its planning. NSPI outlined in the Technical Confere...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes flexibility in planning through cap-and-trade programs and natural gas regulations, while the Industrial Group supports optimizing thermal fleet investments. Cost allocation for legacy thermal units is debated, with the Industrial Group arguing for 100% Demand classification. The 2013 COS proceeding and pending IRP are referenced.

e system to accommodate these changes in load. This is called operating reserve. 4 NSPI October 19, 2016 responses to Board information requests, 3090853 v1 Doreen Friis April 27, 2017 Page 3 inform future COS decisions. In the interim, no...

AI summary The Industrial Group recommends reviewing the cost classification of thermal plants and providing capacity factor forecasts for 2022-2026. They also urge NSPI to report on the capacity value and cost allocation of ERIS-connected wind. The IRP was criticized for not addressing cost allocation, and the Board agreed that revising classifications was premature.

es with respect to environmental concerns in both the short and long term, and technological developments with respect to renewables and storage. This option typically takes about a year to complete. With respect to the second option, this...

AI summary The text outlines two options for addressing environmental and technological considerations: a comprehensive one-year plan and a six-month screening exercise to evaluate alternatives to NSPI’s coal plant operations. The author recommends the latter, suggesting it could identify more cost-effective solutions or necessitate adjustments to NSPI’s plan or further IRP work.

1 capacity and energy to reliably meet Nova Scotia electricity load in all years of the analysis. It will include a time frame of at least 20-25 years (through 2038-2043). Our initial use of the modeling framework will entail determining a...

AI summary The text outlines a modeling framework to determine optimal resource paths for Nova Scotia's electricity load over 20-25 years (through 2038-2043). It emphasizes analyzing different assumption sets to evaluate how resource plans might vary, resulting in a 'candidate resource plan' using Plexos simulations.

e resource plan” 2 would result from running Plexos with different combinations of the input assumption sets illustrated below. Illustrative Matrix: Example of key parameters and range of assumptions Alternative assumptions: Set 1 Set 2 Se...

AI summary The text presents an illustrative matrix of alternative assumptions for an integrated resource plan (IRP), evaluating scenarios with varying parameters such as load forecasts, gas prices, transmission capacity, wind resource costs, and carbon constraints. Three assumption sets (Set 1–3) explore different levels of energy efficiency, capital requirements, and renewable energy integration.

Maritimes coordination coordination M&N: Maritimes and Northeast gas availability / Nova Scotia delivery Synapse will refine the above approach, developing and documenting the sets of input assumptions to use during July. The process invol...

AI summary Synapse is refining a modeling approach for capacity expansion, involving steps like specifying load forecasts, resource costs, and executing the Plexos model. The scope includes report development, stakeholder feedback, and potential regulatory hearing in early 2018.

e 1 (response to NS UARB IR-6, Attachment 1, page 2) show planned expenditures only through 2024. If TUC1 is not retired in 2025, it is reasonable to expect additional sustaining capital requirements. Sustaining capital investment in the t...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's sustaining capital projections for its thermal fleet (2017-2026), noting significant uncertainty due to lack of sensitivity analysis and reliance on outdated data. Specific large capital injections for plants like Lingan 3 and Trenton 6 are highlighted, while the 2014 IRP's levelized approach is critiqued for not addressing year-specific sustaining capital needs.

NOTE: Forecast as of 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report. Actual Capital Filing for 2017 will be provided in 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan. Figure 12 Investment Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Grand Total...

AI summary The document presents a 10-year capital expenditure forecast from 2017 to 2026, detailing investments in categories like Biomass, CTs, LIN0-LIN4, and LMs. It references the 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report and notes that the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan will provide actual figures.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures for fossil-fueled plants, conducting system studies for higher wind penetration, regional coordination with Newfoundland and New Brunswick, evaluating wind capacity value, exploring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity addition.

nvolved longer retention of coal units” (4/13/2017 presentation, slide 27). However, the 2014 IRP did not rigorously examine whether or not longer retention of the coal fleet was economically optimal. Instead, the 2014 IRP analyses include...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by NSPI failed to rigorously analyze the economic optimality of retaining coal units, as it did not account for differences in surplus capacity across resource plans. This oversight undermines the validity of NSPI’s conclusion regarding the economic benefits of prolonged coal unit retention.

options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions. 9 However, this conclusion was based on an assessment of the Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid, 10 and did not capture the value analysis (e.g., during the 2020s). An i...

AI summary The text discusses the cost competitiveness of energy solutions, noting that some options are not cost-effective based on Levelized Electricity Cost to Grid assessments. It highlights the potential of iterative modeling to reduce costs and references studies on synthetic inertia and energy storage. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's LCOS 2.0 analysis are cited as key resources.

eneration assets and other potential capacity options for Nova Scotia customers. NS Power’s comments on the Synapse TOR therefore are focused on the following three areas: July 17, 2017 D. Friis 1. Objective/Purpose 2. Process and Timeline...

AI summary NS Power comments on Synapse's Terms of Reference (TOR) for an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), emphasizing three areas: objective/purpose, process/timeline, and technical clarity. The TOR appears to involve broader IRP-type analysis than recent studies, referencing the 2014 IRP's stated purpose in its TOR.

cs of the number of cases to be conducted, and the process to prioritize and produce the case solutions. It should also provide clarity on the following: Page 6 of 10 July 17, 2017 D. Friis  Who is the referenced project team?  Which par...

AI summary The text outlines questions raised during a regulatory proceeding regarding modeling assumptions for an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including project team responsibilities, quality assurance, rate impact timelines, Synapse's methodology, risk evaluation, model iteration limits, and testing with Plexos modules. NS Power requests clarity on these assumptions.

tem and could present reliability risks without additional system resources to respond to contingencies. Rescaling of this assumption or consideration of reliability implications would be required. Regarding the “medium” and “high” cases f...

AI summary The text discusses reliability risks from wind capacity assumptions and critiques the GE study's methodology for wind generation. NS Power advocates using multi-year data for accurate wind capacity value ranges, while Synapse highlights uncertainties in capital expenditure projections for aging plants, citing specific large capital injection needs.

higher than those associated with lower peak load reduction plans, because no adjustment was made in sustaining capital contribution to allow for retirement of surplus capacity. NS Power notes that the surplus capacities shown in the Figur...

AI summary NS Power argues surplus capacity may no longer exist due to corrected DSM assumptions in the 2016 Load Forecast Report and revised efficiency program forecasts. They dispute Synapse's claim of flat historical peak loads, citing a 1% annual increase in firm peak load since 2016.

1 capacity and energy to reliably meet Nova Scotia electricity load in all years of the analysis. It will include a time frame of at least 20-25 years (through 2038-2043). Our initial use of the modeling framework will entail determining a...

AI summary The document outlines a 20-25 year modeling framework to determine optimal resource paths for Nova Scotia's electricity needs, considering scenarios like varying gas prices and wind capacity contributions. Different model runs with assumption sets will generate candidate resource plans, though not all permutations are defined due to time constraints.

Maritimes coordination coordination M&N: Maritimes and Northeast gas availability / Nova Scotia delivery Synapse will refine the above approach, developing and documenting the sets of input assumptions to use during July and August. 3 A “c...

AI summary The document outlines Synapse's process for refining gas availability and delivery models in Nova Scotia, including steps for capacity expansion modeling. It references the 2014 'candidate resource plan' terminology and details parameters for load forecasts, resource costs, system stability, and model execution.

e minimum number of generation units online, system stability or voltage, operating reserves, or related parameters. h. Execute model runs, iterate as necessary, post-processing of results. Scope The scope of work will encompass refining a...

AI summary The scope involves refining a modeling plan for system stability, voltage, and operating reserves, with stakeholder input, Plexos model execution, and potential 2018 hearings. The process includes iterative modeling, reporting, and finalizing outcomes subject to regulatory review.

needed, and developing a final report. We also understand that the outcome of the modeling process might be subject to a hearing in the early part of 2018. The steps below further itemize this scope. a. Refine modeling plan – create scenar...

AI summary The document outlines steps to refine an integrated resource plan (IRP) modeling process, including scenario development, load forecasting, resource cost assumptions, thermal fleet cost specifications, and balancing area constructs. The process involves using Plexos optimization tools and considering demand-side management interdependencies.

uns. e. Specify balancing area constructs to model. Research and develop alternatives to model balancing area constructs over the longer-term (e.g., NS alone, with import paths from NB and NL; or 3 combined Maritime provincial balancing re...

AI summary The text outlines steps for modeling balancing area constructs, incorporating technical constraints, and conducting stakeholder reviews using Plexos software. It emphasizes collaboration with NSPI, iterative modeling, and stakeholder feedback through conferences and hearings.

uct additional modeling if necessary to refine results and address stakeholder feedback. d.e. Prepare final report post technical conference, addressing feedback. e.f. Attend hearing on final report. Discussion of Critical Steps – Modeling...

AI summary The document outlines steps for developing an integrated resource plan (IRP) using Plexos modeling tools, emphasizing unit commitment, dispatch, and capacity expansion modules. Key focus areas include refining resource cost assumptions, incorporating load forecasts, and addressing stakeholder feedback through technical conferences and hearings.

zard, Canadian Electricity Association, International Energy Association, GE reports, NERC, and other publicly available and current data on cost trajectories, price forecasts, and related parameters. Timeline for Analysis The table below...

AI summary The document outlines data sources for cost and price analysis, including NERC and industry reports, and presents a timeline for project milestones dependent on NSPI's delivery of modeling files and responses to inquiries about system constraints. Key milestones include model execution, post-processing, and report drafting.

Mid- Report. NovemberDecember/January 4 These may already be accounted for in the capped emission requirements for the Province. 5 Technical Conference Late Presentation Slides. January/FebruaryNovember Modeling refinements Post technical...

AI summary Synapse's comments following the 2017 technical conference address NSPI's thermal resource plans, referencing the 2014 IRP Action Plan and NS UARB's 2016 information requests regarding NSPI's 10-Year System Outlook Report. The discussion focuses on sustaining capital expenditures for the thermal fleet.

o reflect the concerns expressed in the set of NS UARB information requests (October 2016) in regards to NSPI’s 2016 10-Year System Outlook Report. Summary – NSPI’s Outlook on the Thermal Steam Fleet NSPI plans for continuing operation of...

AI summary NSPI plans to continue operating its thermal steam fleet through 2030, except for retired Lingan 2, citing resource adequacy needs. Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) is projected to remain operational beyond 2025, contradicting 2014 IRP assumptions. Sustaining capital for thermal units is estimated at $445M (2017-2026), with discrepancies noted between 2017 ACE plan projections and current forecasts.

s seen in the table for 2017; the difference for that year was explained in the ACE plan, but critically, no additional information was available on the confidence of the projections for future years. NSPI has not provided any sensitivity...

AI summary The text highlights concerns about NSPI's lack of sensitivity analysis for sustaining capital expenditure projections, noting significant uncertainty due to aging plants and large capital injections in specific years. It criticizes the 2014 IRP's levelized approach for not addressing year-to-year sustaining capital requirements for steam plants.

g resource adequacy requirements), or they affect the capacity contributions available from existing and potentially new alternative capacity resources. The eight action items are characterized below: 1. Optimize the level of sustaining ca...

AI summary The document outlines eight action items addressing resource adequacy, including optimizing capital expenditures, studying wind penetration impacts, regional coordination, evaluating wind resources, monitoring market opportunities, assessing demand response, securing DSM commitments, and evaluating Mersey Development. These steps aim to ensure system reliability and capacity contributions.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units through 2030, citing the 2014 IRP's lack of thorough examination. Renewable energy cost reductions and traditional gas-fired resources are noted as factors affecting coal unit retention economics.

nvolved longer retention of coal units” (4/13/2017 presentation, slide 27). However, the 2014 IRP did not rigorously examine whether or not longer retention of the coal fleet was economically optimal. Instead, the 2014 IRP analyses include...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by NSPI inadequately evaluated the economic optimality of retaining coal units, failing to account for surplus capacity differences across resource plans. This oversight undermined the validity of NSPI's conclusion that prolonged coal unit retention was economically justified, as surplus capacity levels varied significantly between plans.

question from the Board as part of the 2017 Annual Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745), NSPI indicated that storage options “are not cost competitive” compared to traditional solutions.10 However, this peak demand reduction through DSM, whic...

AI summary NSPI's 2017 Capital Expenditure Plan (M07745) stated energy storage was not cost-competitive. However, demand-side management (DSM) reduced peak demand, creating surplus capacity. An iterative modeling approach could have retired coal units, lowering costs. The GE 2013 wind integration study and Lazard's 2016 storage analysis are referenced, alongside synthetic inertia as a potential grid stability solution.

009 7885 8761 Hours per Year Load Greater than Indicated Value Source: NSPI OASIS, Hourly Load Data, 2016. 14 Based on 600 MW (20% - 12%). A-9 In the most recent load forecast, NSPI projects increasing peak load. In response to the Board’s...

AI summary NSPI discusses load forecasting methods, citing Synapse's report that questions the accuracy of peak load projections. The report recommends refining peak load calculations due to flat historical trends. The text emphasizes the need for a portfolio of alternatives to coal plant retention, balancing renewable integration with reliability and cost considerations.

ce for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants,16 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio of alternatives to coal plant retention, emphasizing comprehensive analysis using tools like PLEXOS. It stresses evaluating both demand-side (energy efficiency, demand response) and supply-side options, considering cost trends and greenhouse gas reduction value. A rigorous approach is needed to explore demand-side capabilities and their impact on capacity needs.

NSPI’s projected requirements. Any analysis must first rigorously explore the cost and capability of demand side options, and accurately represent their attributes in any capacity expansion exercise. 15 NSPI response to NS UARB IR-2 (b-c)....

AI summary NSPI argues that demand-side options must be rigorously evaluated for cost and capability in capacity expansion. The Board critiques NSPI's example of substituting a combustion turbine for a coal plant as oversimplified, noting variable assumptions and unaddressed locational factors. Supply-side analysis must include updated cost/performance data and address ramping/ancillary service needs from wind and storage integration.

va Scotia’s current system, but also ramping and ancillary service requirements under different scenarios of increased penetration of wind resources and utilization of, for example, storage resources. Supply-side assessment for future year...

AI summary The analysis emphasizes the need to assess winter gas availability from New England, influenced by their greenhouse gas reduction targets, and the implications for Maritimes energy costs. It also highlights the importance of considering storage and wind resource scenarios in supply-side planning.

ritical to continue to Page 5 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) June 7, 2018 D. Friis Synapse Recommendation NS Power Response / Position assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements...

AI summary Synapse recommends assessing wind integration costs, enhancing transmission infrastructure, and improving inter-provincial coordination. NS Power supports these measures, emphasizing the need for technical assessments, grid reinforcement, and capacity planning to accommodate increased wind energy and maintain reliability.

r does this now and agrees that it association with the TUC units, to allow is important to continually assess. appropriate parametrization in Plexos to enable possible economic retirement Page 6 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REM...

AI summary Synapse recommends ongoing activities for coal retirement planning and natural gas monitoring, which NS Power supports. The report concludes that retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective for customers, emphasizing the need for flexibility in unit rankings and continuous assessment of fuel trends.

respecting these issues. Conclusion The Synapse Report confirms that it is cost-effective to customers to retain NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. As stated above, NS Power’s comments are not to be taken as an end...

AI summary The Synapse Report concludes retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. NS Power acknowledges the report addresses the Board’s original questions but disputes its assumptions and modeling. They oppose a hearing on the report, advocating instead for proceeding to the next IRP and implementing the report’s nine recommendations.

retention of the coal fleet is the main issue under REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 2 of 9 examination in this process, as contemplated by the objective of the TOR. T...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) emphasizes that the retention of the coal fleet is central to the proceeding, arguing that Synapse's proposed study framework with 30+ scenarios may not effectively assess coal investment merits. NSP suggests a narrowed modeling approach and anticipates an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will be needed by the decade's end, considering factors like carbon reduction and Maritime Link operations.

bon reduction requirements, federal equivalency and the operation of the Maritime Link. With regard to the study framework proposed by Synapse, the Company suggests consideration of the following: • Whether the period of study needs to be...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) questions Synapse's proposed 25-year study framework, raising concerns about resource availability (e.g., NB transmission, battery storage), uncertainty in federal/provincial regulations, and the need for clarity on DSM program selection criteria. NSP also notes the Board's planned 2018 DSM hearing and lack of reference plan criteria.

ity should be provided on what information will be used to determine what is “cost-effective to ratepayers”. Consistent with the foregoing, the Company submits that the criteria should reflect that: i. The selected reference plan should fa...

AI summary NS Power outlines criteria for selecting a reference plan, emphasizing near-term certainty, existing asset effectiveness, and affordability. They advocate for shorter-term modeling to align with coal unit retention goals by 2030 and suggest updates to Synapse's analysis approach.

. An additional benefit of this approach is that it will also allow the model to optimize the in-service year of new DSM and transmission resources. ii) The “WindCapCredit” scenarios may be redundant, as they effectively represent the capa...

AI summary The text discusses optimizing DSM and transmission resource in-service years, questions the redundancy of WindCapCredit scenarios due to fixed wind capacity contributions, and notes the need to run the Short Term (ST) module annually for production cost modeling in retirement path scenarios.

s entitled “Results of Plexos Modeling and Discussion” dated March 28, 2018 and “Results of Plexos Modeling and Discussion – Supplemental Slides” dated March 28, 2018 Dear Mr. Fagan: In correspondence dated August 22, 2017, the Nova Scotia...

AI summary The UARB approved Synapse's amended Terms of Reference to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030. Synapse circulated a modeling plan, and NS Power, the Consumer Advocate, and Small Business Advocate provided comments. The analysis relates to integrated resource planning and regulatory approval processes.

ed Partnership (PHP) and EfficiencyOne (E1). On December 29, 2017, Synapse issued its “Response to Stakeholder Comments on Key Input Assumptions and Modeling Plan for Plexos Optimization Analysis”. On March 2, 2018, Synapse circulated its...

AI summary The document outlines the Generation Utilization and Optimization (GUO) study process led by Synapse, with input from NS Power, EfficiencyOne (E1), and the ed Partnership (PHP). NS Power provides comments on Synapse's draft report, emphasizing the study's objective to assess the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030.

the extent to which it is cost‐effective to ratepayers to retain NSPI’s thermal (steam) fleet through, and possibly beyond, 2030. At page two of the Draft Report the following is provided: Using reference scenario load levels from NSPI’s 2...

AI summary The analysis concludes that retaining NSPI’s coal fleet through 2030 is the most cost-effective option for ratepayers, based on Synapse’s modeling using 2017 load forecasts, wind capacity scenarios, and DSM components. Retention is indicated even with increased wind generation and higher sustaining capital costs for thermal sources.

tive option for rate payers is the retention of the coal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. Synapse confirmed this interpretation of the results at the Technical Conference on March 28, 2018. The Draft Report circulated on March 2, 2...

AI summary NS Power argues that retaining the coal fleet until 2030 is the lowest-cost option, confirmed by Synapse at a technical conference. The Draft Report lacks a conclusion on the Board’s objective, but NS Power expects the Final Report to affirm this. Uncertainty around Nova Scotia’s carbon regime and federal/provincial policy clarity will influence long-term planning, with a potential 2019 IRP exercise pending policy resolution.

than one percent when compared to Scenario 1 of the analysis. This difference is within a reasonable range of model uncertainty relative to the no retirement plan, rather than cause for conclusion. Demand‐Side Management Synapse’s conclusi...

AI summary NS Power and Synapse discuss DSM study needs and natural gas supply challenges. NS Power advocates for a comprehensive DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, while Synapse highlights New England's greenhouse gas targets impacting winter gas availability and costs in the Maritimes.

cant reduction in natural gas use for energy generation, making its availability and price for winter use in the Maritimes potentially more economical than is currently considered. The future availability and security of natural gas supply...

AI summary NS Power highlights uncertainties in natural gas supply security in Nova Scotia, emphasizing the need for infrastructure improvements to support gas generation. Additional wind generation requires system upgrades for stability, with NS Power urging Synapse to address these in its Final Report. Both issues impact long-term planning and resource assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

update its runs that used the incremental DSM assumption with the new information to be provided by E1. At one point, Synapse suggested this might be done by sensitivity analysis. In its comments circulated on April 9, 2018, E1 provided it...

AI summary The document discusses updating DSM cost assumptions in Synapse's modeling using E1's High Case data, which reflects a $0.60/kWh energy unit cost. NS Power agrees to incorporate E1's updated costs for accurate program evaluation, rejecting sensitivity analysis due to untested new information. The High Case is deemed most relevant for assessing 2% incremental energy efficiency.

C David S. MacDougall Direct +1 (902) 444 8561 [email protected] COO PE R 1969 Upper Water Street Suite 1300 Purdy's Wharf Tower II Halifax NS Canada B3J 2V1 Tel +4 (902) 425 6500 Fax +1 (902) 425 6350 Our File: 100384 Jun...

AI summary Port Hawkesbury Paper LP (PHP) supports Synapse's conclusion that retaining NSPI's coal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. PHP aligns with NSPI's position that the Board and customers should prioritize preparing for an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) rather than pursuing a hearing on the Final Report.

and Review Board (the “Board”) and customers are best served by focusing on next steps and preparing for a future Integrated Resource Plan (“IRP”), not a hearing process surrounding the Final Report. Given the conclusions and recommendatio...

AI summary PHP argues that the Board and customers should focus on preparing for the next Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) rather than a hearing on the Final Report. PHP highlights a post-processing error in Synapse's Draft Report that double-counted Nova Scotia wind costs, significantly affecting NPVRR calculations for multiple scenarios.

vide guidance on other energy and capacity resources. OBJECTIVE OF THE REPORT It is important to keep in perspective that the objective of the Report by Synapse in this matter was stated as follows: The purpose of the Generation Optimizati...

AI summary The Synapse report evaluated the cost-effectiveness of retaining NSPI's thermal fleet through 2030, concluding it was beneficial for ratepayers. NSPI supported Synapse's recommendations but emphasized the need for a new DSM study and detailed battery storage analysis for the next IRP.

al Generation Utilization and Optimization Economic Analysis of Retention of Fossil-Fueled Thermal Fleet To and Beyond 2030 - M08059, Synapse Energy Economics Inc. (the "Report"), May 1, 2018, page 1. 2 may be other factors that need to be...

AI summary The SBA criticizes the overemphasis on long-term metrics like NPV RRs in Synapse's analysis, stressing that short-term electricity costs for small businesses are equally important. It cautions against prioritizing certain recommendations from the report and highlights concerns about obscured cost comparisons in the analysis.

A does not have any concerns about NSPI spending resources and time on these recommendations, but submits that they should not be given enhanced priority as a result of being referenced in the Report. The SBA also submits that it would be...

AI summary The SBA submits that NSPI should track investment in ACE Plans for thermal generating units and highlights three key findings: most thermal units warrant investment through 2030, increased sustaining capital costs could render some units obsolete, and alternative resource costs will impact thermal fleet economics. The SBA recommends a comprehensive IRP in 2019 instead of hearings.

ose assumptions generally do not represent the lowest-cost planning path. Most importantly, the results show that NS Power should focus on identifying the best candidate for retirement after Lingan 2. Our recommendation to not conduct hear...

AI summary The analysis suggests that current assumptions may not reflect the lowest-cost planning path, emphasizing the need for NS Power to identify the next coal unit for retirement post-Lingan 2. The recommendation against hearings hinges on NS Power's support for the Final Report's recommendations, which will shape the next Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Key factors like wind installations, demand response, and battery costs were not fully tested but should be considered in future planning.

te that our analysis was not an IRP, it is impossible to untangle the assessment of thermal fleet economics from resource planning assumptions, the Small Business Advocate’s comments notwithstanding.4 The SBA notes concern over our analysi...

AI summary The analysis, not an IRP, integrates thermal fleet economics with resource planning. The SBA criticizes reliance on long-term metrics and common costs, while the response emphasizes long-term capital recovery and revenue requirements across scenarios, noting that excluding common costs would exaggerate cost savings for low-cost scenarios.

2 relative-to-reference-case cost savings (i.e., in percentage terms) for the three lowest-cost scenarios shown – scenarios 8, 14 and 17.6 PHP notes its concern with our late-in-coming reporting of a post-processing error that altered the...

AI summary The text discusses cost savings from three low-cost scenarios (8, 14, 17) and addresses a post-processing error in NPV cost reporting. PHP criticizes the delayed error disclosure, while EfficiencyOne emphasizes continued DSM cost-effectiveness despite higher per-unit costs due to carbon cap constraints. The analysis concludes that a second thermal unit retirement before 2030 is indicated under low-cost scenarios, with anticipation of NS Power’s 2019 IRP process.

t is indicated through 2030.1 And, NS Power also notes, properly, that these results do not reflect a “final determination as to the long-term utilization of these generation units”. However, the entirety of our analysis indicates that alm...

AI summary The analysis indicates that retiring a second coal unit before 2030 is economically viable in multiple scenarios, with lower overall costs compared to the reference plan. Synapse's report recommends confirming energy efficiency potential as part of the IRP process, emphasizing its role in displacing higher-cost energy sources.

es in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. [Note that EfficiencyOne has been directed to file a DSM Potential Study by July 31,2019.] 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak-loa...

AI summary The text outlines requirements for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to include fossil fuel and import resources, mandates a DSM Potential Study by EfficiencyOne, and emphasizes analyzing demand response costs, battery storage economics, and sustaining capital costs for thermal generation. The IRP must reflect diverse resource options and quantify costs for peak-load reduction and energy storage.

capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of wi...

AI summary The text discusses capital costs (6.5–10.4% of NPVRR) and outlines requirements for integrating wind energy into NSPI's system, including transmission upgrades and intertie completion. It emphasizes joint dispatch coordination with Maritime Provinces and analysis of Tufts Cove thermal units for economic retirement modeling.

city and unit commitment requirements needed in association with the Tufts Cove thermal units, to allow appropriate parameterization in Plexos to enable possible economic retirement. 8. Identify candidates for the “next” coal retirement al...

AI summary The text outlines tasks for the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, including parameterizing Tufts Cove thermal units in Plexos, ranking coal units for retirement after Lingan 2, monitoring natural gas trends, and addressing items from the Bates White fuel audit report during the IRP's first phase.

l gas price and availability trends in the Maritimes. In addition, the following items noted in the Bates White fuel audit report likely should be addressed during the first phase of the IRP process: • Continue to evaluate new and existing...

AI summary The Board directs NS Power to complete an Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process by mid-2020, emphasizing pre-IRP analyses including wind resource evaluation, combustion turbine (CT) replacement economics, capital investment needs, and planning reserve margin analysis. The DSM Potential Study is due by July 31, 2019, to inform IRP assumptions.