N-1IRP Action Plan Update
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Introduction Nova Scotia Power is pleased to provide this update to its IRP Action Plan. On November 30, 2020, Nova Scotia Power submitted Powering A Green Nova Scotia, Together: 2020 Integrated Resource Plan to the Nova Scotia Utility and...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power submitted its 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, outlining an Action Plan and Roadmap for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system while ensuring reliability and affordability. This document provides the first annual update on progress during the 2020 IRP Planning Period.
IRP Action Plan Overview • Nova Scotia Power's 2020 IRP Action Plan consists of 5 Action Plan Items, some of which include multiple elements: - The IRP also identified 8 Roadmap items that NS Power is monitoring for potential impact on Act...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan includes 5 items with 8 monitored Roadmap items. The Annual Report updates progress on these items and integrates Roadmap elements under relevant Action Plan items. Updates on the electricity planning environment and the Evergreen IRP process are also provided.
An Evolving Planning Landscape
AI summary The document section titled 'An Evolving Planning Landscape' introduces the context of changing planning approaches, potentially related to integrated resource planning in Nova Scotia.
Nova Scotia Power operates in an evolving planning environment. The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) discussed the challenges of electricity system planning in a dynamic and complex environment. Since the IRP Final Report was published...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) addresses evolving challenges in electricity system planning. Since 2020, federal and provincial policies, environmental goals, and regulations have further shaped the planning environment. The IRP Action Plan is grounded in resource planning elements common across future scenarios.
Federal and Provincial Carbon Price Frameworks - The Government of Canada introduced a new proposed trajectory for carbon pricing in Canada in its report [A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy](https://www.canada.ca/en/services/envir...
AI summary Canada's proposed carbon pricing trajectory starts at $65/tonne in 2023, rising to $170/tonne by 2030. Nova Scotia has not yet decided on a post-2022 framework, with options including federal programs or a provincial cap-and-trade system. NS Power is modeling compliance scenarios, including the federal Output Based Pricing System (OPBS) and a revised hard cap approach aligned with the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan.
Canada's Net Zero 2035 Electricity System Target - At the November 2021 COP26 conference, Canada announced a commitment to achieve a net-zero emissions electricity sector by 2035. - Further information on the policy framework for this targ...
AI summary Canada committed at COP26 to a net-zero electricity sector by 2035. NS Power's 2020 IRP used a 0.5MT CO2e annual emissions cap (95% below 2005 levels) as a net-zero framework. In 2022, NS Power will explore resource plans under similar modeling constraints, pending further guidance from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Regional Integration Strategy IRP Action Plan Item 1 is: Develop a Regional Integration Strategy to provide access to firm capacity and low-carbon energy while increasing the reliability of Nova Scotia's interconnection with North America....
AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) aims to develop a Regional Integration Strategy with three components: Near Term Firm Imports, Reliability Tie Development, and Regional Interconnection Analysis. The strategy seeks to enhance interconnection reliability with North America, secure low-carbon energy, and support Nova Scotia's commitment to phasing out coal generation by 2030.
Near Term Firm Import Opportunities - The 2020 IRP tested the availability of up to 150MW of firm capacity available over the existing interconnections to New Brunswick and Newfoundland; these capacity options were components of the optima...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identified 150MW of firm capacity via interconnections to New Brunswick and Newfoundland as optimal. However, discussions with NB Power reveal ongoing unavailability of transmission capacity, prompting NS Power to seek technical solutions and advance commercial discussions for near-term firm imports ahead of winter 2023/24.
Reliability Tie Development - In order to advance the Reliability Tie on the timelines indicated in the IRP Action Plan, NS Power engaged an engineering firm to complete a conceptual study of the Nova Scotia portion of the line, including...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) is advancing the Reliability Tie project as outlined in the IRP Action Plan. This includes engaging an engineering firm for a conceptual study, conducting environmental surveys, and refining line routing. The study encompasses weather analysis, design concepts, and cost estimates for the NS portion of the line.
Regional Interconnection Analysis Part 1c of the Regional Integration Strategy is: In parallel with Regional Interconnection development, and working with neighbouring jurisdictions, conducting detailed engineering and economic studies for...
AI summary Part 1c of the Regional Integration Strategy involves conducting engineering and economic studies for firm import options, transmission investment, and regional interconnections, focusing on supply security, emissions, and dispatch flexibility. This work aligns with the wind procurement strategy and collaboration with neighboring jurisdictions.
Regional Integration and the Atlantic Loop - The Atlantic Loop is envisioned as a series of transmission expansion projects that would increase transfer capabilities between Hydro Québec and New Brunswick, and between New Brunswick to Nova...
AI summary The Atlantic Loop project aims to enhance transmission between Hydro Québec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, aligning with Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) Eastern Clean Energy Initiative. Affordability concerns and federal support are emphasized as critical for decarbonization and coal phase-out. NSP will continue advocating for the project in 2022.
Regional Integration Alternatives - In addition to discussions aimed at advancing the Atlantic Loop project, Nova Scotia Power continues to monitor other potential sources of imported firm capacity and energy, consistent with the Regional...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) is monitoring potential energy imports from New England and other regions as part of its Regional Integration strategy. However, New England's energy mix may not meet Nova Scotia's 80% renewable standard, and capacity importability may decrease compared to 2020 IRP assumptions due to gas constraints and shifting peak demand patterns.
Electrification Strategy IRP Action Plan Item 2 is: Electrification is a key variable in this IRP and results indicate that under economic resource plans it can support provincial decarbonization while reducing upward pressure on electrici...
AI summary The Electrification Strategy, part of IRP Action Plan Item 2, emphasizes electrification's role in supporting provincial decarbonization while managing electricity rates. Nova Scotia Power focused on initiating the strategy in 2021, with the IRP highlighting that diverse low-carbon investments can enable deep decarbonization.
Electrification Strategy Approach - During 2021 NS Power has engaged Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) to support the development of an Electrification Strategy for NS Power. - This work is ongoing and is focused on the transpo...
AI summary NS Power is developing an electrification strategy with E3, focusing on transportation and building sectors aligned with provincial/federal targets (e.g., 30% non-emitting vehicles by 2030). The strategy will include short-term priorities, evaluation metrics, and long-term load impact analysis, with stakeholder consultations planned for 2022.
Roadmap Item 7 states: Monitor electrification growth in Nova Scotia to understand at what point the provincial load profile starts to move from Low, to Mid, to High levels of electrification as defined in the IRP Assumptions for firm peak...
AI summary Roadmap Item 7 directs monitoring of Nova Scotia's electrification growth to identify transitions in provincial load profiles from low to high electrification levels as defined in the IRP. This will inform DSM avoided cost applications and trigger a PRM study using actual peak and load data.
Updated Electric Vehicle and Heat Pump Forecasts - As part of the Electrification Strategy project, E3 has developed sales and stock rollover forecasts for EV LDVs, Residential Heat Pumps, and Commercial Heat Pumps. - These enhanced modeli...
AI summary E3 has developed enhanced forecasts for EV LDVs and heat pumps, incorporating provincial/federal targets and stock rollover models from NS Power's pre-IRP report. These forecasts will support NS Power's assessment of electrification impacts and inform future load forecasts.
Trenton 5 Retirement Plan Part 3a of the Thermal Plant Retirement item is: Develop a plan for the retirement and replacement of Trenton 5, targeting 2023, while identifying required replacement capacity and energy in parallel. Begin decomm...
AI summary The Trenton 5 Retirement Plan outlines steps for retiring the Trenton 5 thermal plant by 2023, developing replacement capacity, decommissioning studies for other coal assets, and creating a coal retirement plan with community and employee engagement, requiring regulatory approval.
Trenton 5 Retirement Plan - In order to meet ongoing firm peak load and planning reserve margin requirements, replacement firm capacity is required before Trenton 5 can be economically retired in order to maintain adequate system reliabili...
AI summary The Trenton 5 Retirement Plan requires securing replacement firm capacity through near-term imports or a new combustion turbine (CT) before economic retirement. Retirement is delayed to 2024 due to planning timelines, with operating restrictions to avoid capital investment. A transmission study assesses retirement impacts, and NS Power engages employees affected by coal unit retirements.
Trenton 5 Retirement Plan Sustaining Capital Investments - In order for Trenton Unit 5 to operate through 2023/2024 winter operational restrictions will be required to avoid a turbine major refurbishment interval. These operational restric...
AI summary Trenton Unit 5 requires operational restrictions (max 1000 hours/year, minimal starts) from 2022–2024 to avoid a major refurbishment. If the unit is needed for the 2024/2025 winter, a refurbishment (including boiler life extension and turbine work) would be required in 2024 summer/fall.
Thermal Plant Depreciation Strategy Part 3b of the Thermal Plant Retirement item is: Complete a thermal plant Depreciation Study to update depreciation rates and a recovery strategy to better align depreciation with updated useful lives fo...
AI summary The document outlines Part 3b of the Thermal Plant Retirement action item, requiring a depreciation study to align depreciation rates with updated asset lifespans and develop a recovery strategy. Sustaining capital investments will be directed based on thermal unit retirement categories. These updates will be reported in the 2022 IRP Annual Report to align with coal phase-out targets.
Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Update Battery storage was evaluated in the 2020 IRP and IRP Finding 3d notes that: Battery storage can enable wind integration while providing firm capacity and energy storage; however, its ability to...
AI summary This document provides an update on Nova Scotia Power's evaluation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) since the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. It outlines potential benefits of BESS, including supporting wind integration and system reliability, and mentions current feasibility studies for up to 200 MW of deployment. NS Power plans to file a capital item for BESS in 2022.
Combustion Turbine Update - The 2020 IRP found that significant Combustion Turbine (CT) additions were required, including under accelerated coal retirement and more stringent emissions reduction scenarios. - For example, Scenario 3.1C cum...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identified a need for significant Combustion Turbine (CT) additions in Nova Scotia, especially under accelerated coal retirement and stricter emissions scenarios. NS Power is evaluating CT deployment options and locations, considering gas supply and transmission needs, while also exploring alternatives like BESS and coal-to-gas conversions to reduce CT requirements by 2030.
Wind Procurement Strategy Part 3d of the Thermal Plant Retirement item is: Initiate a wind procurement strategy, targeting 50-100 MW new installed capacity by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030. This strategy will solicit Nova Scotia-based mark...
AI summary The document outlines a wind procurement strategy targeting 50-100 MW by 2025 and up to 350 MW by 2030, informed by the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It emphasizes the need for system stability studies to assess grid impacts and potential requirements for ancillary services like Fast Frequency Response (FFR), especially in advance of the Reliability Tie commissioning.
Wind Integration Studies In parallel with the wind procurement strategy for additional renewable resources, a series of studies are ongoing to determine what system or operational supports are required to enable the highest levels of wind...
AI summary The document discusses ongoing wind integration studies in Nova Scotia to determine system and operational supports needed for high wind integration. It references the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan, NERC guidelines, and past system events like the Texas Odessa and South Australia blackout for lessons learned. Replacing traditional synchronous generators with inverter-based resources is highlighted as a challenge requiring careful planning.
Roadmap Item 1 states: Advance engineering study work on coal to gas conversions at Trenton and Point Tupper Generating Stations. Monitor cost outputs of this work relative to IRP assumptions and update the balance of new and converted cap...
AI summary Roadmap Item 1 calls for advancing engineering studies on coal to gas conversions at Trenton and Point Tupper Generating Stations. The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) suggests that coal to gas conversions may be a cost-effective source of dispatchable firm capacity, even at low capacity factors.
Supply of Natural Gas - Trenton 6 (TRE6) and Point Tupper 2 (POT2) units are both located close to existing natural gas supply sources. Additional infrastructure is required in both cases to deliver sufficient gas; infrastructure requireme...
AI summary The document discusses the natural gas supply situation for the Trenton 6 and Point Tupper 2 units, noting the need for additional infrastructure to deliver sufficient gas. NS Power has conducted a third-party study on gas availability, which informed service requests submitted to Heritage Gas and Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline.
Coal Unit Conversions - NS Power is currently determining the least cost conversion option for which gas can be readily available. - The work to date has served to validate key IRP assumptions, indicating that coal unit conversion continue...
AI summary NS Power is evaluating the least cost option for converting coal units to gas, with current work validating the Integrated Resource Plan's assumptions that coal unit conversion remains a low-cost option for customers. One conversion has been included in the 2022 ACE Plan for submittal.
Roadmap Item 3 states: Pursue economic reinvestment in existing hydro and combustion turbines with individual capital applications as applicable; economic justification as part of a capital application will be required to confirm decision...
AI summary The document outlines a roadmap for capital investment in existing hydro and combustion turbines, requiring economic justification for Mersey hydro redevelopment. It emphasizes sustaining capital investment in thermal units aligned with retirement classifications and monitoring reliability and investment levels to trigger further analyses if significant changes occur.
Combustion Turbine Investment CT investment continues to be aligned with IRP assumptions for sustaining capital through 2021-2026 - In 2021, spend related to Diesel CTs was within 1 percent of the IRP Capital Assumptions for the same year....
AI summary The document discusses the alignment of combustion turbine (CT) investment with the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions from 2021 to 2026, noting that spending on diesel CTs was within 1% of the IRP capital assumptions. Some changes in project timelines and priorities are mentioned, but overall, the sustaining capital investments remain within the range of IRP inputs.
Hydro Investment In 2021, Small Hydro Investment (excluding Mersey) is forecast to be below the IRP input assumptions by approximately 10 percent. - The forecast spend on the Mersey System in 2021 has been deferred due to continued project...
AI summary In 2021, small hydro investment (excluding Mersey) is forecast to be below IRP assumptions by about 10%. Several projects, including the Mersey System, Tusket Main Dam, and others, have been deferred due to ongoing analysis and design. These deferrals are within the materiality range of IRP inputs and do not require further analysis at this time.
Mersey Hydro Redevelopment - The planning and design for the Mersey Redevelopment Project continues as does the environmental permitting process. - In parallel, NS Power continues engage with the Mi'kmaq with regard to areas of interest in...
AI summary The Mersey Hydro Redevelopment Project is ongoing, with continued planning, design, and environmental permitting. NS Power is engaging with the Mi'kmaq on areas of interest such as fish passage and archeology, and analysis will continue into 2022 with a plan to reengage stakeholders for an update.
Thermal Investment In 2021 the Actual Investment in thermal steam fleet is forecast to be 28 percent below the 2020 IRP assumptions: - As outlined in the 2022 ACE Section 11.1.2 Sustaining Capital – 2022 ACE Plan Alignment with the 2020 In...
AI summary The Actual Investment in the thermal steam fleet in 2021 is forecast to be 28% below the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions. This variance is due to differences in forecasting methods, with the IRP using a top-down approach and current forecasts using a bottom-up approach based on risk assessments.
Low Carbon Fuels Roadmap Item 4 states: Monitor the development of low/zero carbon fuels that could replace natural gas in powering generating units to provide firm, in-province capacity. NS Power's focus on this item has been largely in u...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's focus on monitoring low/zero carbon fuels, particularly hydrogen, as part of the Integrated Resource Plan, with an emphasis on the potential of hydrogen to replace natural gas in generating units within Nova Scotia.
Roadmap Item 5 states: Continue to track the installed costs of wind, solar, and energy storage to look for variations from the trajectories established in the IRP (in particular, monitoring for divergence from the "Base" to the "Low" pric...
AI summary The document outlines the need to monitor installed costs of wind, solar, and energy storage against the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) trajectories, particularly focusing on divergence from the 'Base' to 'Low' pricing scenarios. Nova Scotia Power will gather local market information and collaborate with E1 to track the operational costs of demand-side management (DSM) programs.
Renewable and Storage Costs – Capital Costs - NS Power reviewed NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) forecasts for renewables (onshore wind, solar) and storage (4HR Li-ion) to gauge capital cost changes from the 2020 IRP (ATB 2019 vs AT...
AI summary NS Power reviewed NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) forecasts for renewable and storage technologies to assess capital cost changes since the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The analysis uses constant 2019 dollars and compares current estimates to those in the 2020 IRP, focusing on material differences.
Wind - ATB 2021 shows lower current costs (2022) and a more aggressive declining trajectory on a 2019$ basis vis-à-vis ATB 2019 and related IRP forecasts. - ATB 2021 is still bound within NS Power's Base/Low capital cost range on a 2019$ b...
AI summary The ATB 2021 indicates lower current wind energy costs and a more aggressive decline in costs compared to ATB 2019 and related IRP forecasts. It remains within NS Power's Base/Low capital cost range and will improve NS Power's jurisdiction-specific costing once procurement is complete.
Solar - ATB 2021 shows higher near-term costs vis-à-vis ATB 2019, which was used to generate the 2020 IRP low solar cost sensitivity. - Like wind, a more aggressive cost decline trajectory is seen in ATB 2021.
AI summary The 2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) indicates higher near-term costs compared to the 2019 ATB, which was used for the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) low solar cost sensitivity. Similar to wind, ATB 2021 shows a more aggressive cost decline trajectory for solar.
BESS - ATB 2021 shows moderately lower BESS capital costs, with a moderately slower cost decline trajectory on a 2019 $ basis. - Like wind, the IRP Base/Low estimates encompass the updated forecast/ - As discussed in the Fast-Acting Genera...
AI summary The 2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) indicates moderately lower capital costs for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), with a slower cost decline trajectory compared to 2019. Nova Scotia Power (NSP) is evaluating BESS projects up to 200MW, sourcing updated cost estimates from suppliers as part of the Fast-Acting Generation Strategy update.
Roadmap Item 6 states: Track the ongoing development of the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program, including auction results and developing regulations. In particular, monitor GHG market size for indications that value from incremental allowan...
AI summary The document emphasizes tracking the Nova Scotia Cap-and-Trade Program's development, including auction results and regulations. It highlights the importance of monitoring GHG market size to assess the value of incremental allowance sales for long-term resource planning, particularly affecting non-emitting generation, DSM levels, and coal retirement.
Demand Response Strategy Components - The 2020 IRP assessed aggregated demand response programing ("DR") developed by E1 (Three profiles: Low, Base High). These profiles provided a stream of annual costs and associated capacity of availabl...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) evaluated demand response (DR) programs developed by E1, including three profiles (Low, Base, High) that provided annual costs and load reduction capacity from 2021 to 2045. DR was modeled similarly to supply-side resources, with a 75 MW target capacity found to be economically viable. Sub-programs included Direct Load Control, Critical Peak Pricing, and BNI curtailment, which passed cost-effectiveness testing.
DR Program Components (Base) – 2020 IRP
AI summary The document presents a figure related to the DR Program Components (Base) under the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. It includes visual information about demand response program components but lacks textual details for further analysis.
Commercial DR Pilot - Pilot goal: demonstrate DR potential of aggregating and controlling various loads for commercial customers, and inform viability of a future, large-scale program. - Phase 1 will involve integration of customers' Sieme...
AI summary The Commercial DR Pilot aims to demonstrate the potential of aggregating and controlling commercial customer loads for demand response (DR), with Phase 1 involving integration with NSP's Energy System Platform and Phase 2 involving the procurement of a DR aggregator through an RFP issued in November 2021. The pilot is expected to run from winter 2021/2022 to March 2024.
with higher annual loads and firm peaks that would result if no new DSM programming were undertaken (collectively "Without DSM Plans"). - See accompanying slide for load and peak demand assumptions. 1 Partial Revenue Requirement are those...
AI summary The document discusses the assumptions and methodology used in calculating the Avoided Cost of DSM, including the use of the 2020 IRP load data, cost allocation methods, and stakeholder engagement. It outlines the sharing of results with the DSM Advisory Group and the refinement of cost allocation techniques based on feedback.
Avoided Cost of DSM - Energy IRP Scearnio 2.0C (Reference Case) 2.1C Year Actual Annual AVC Energy ($/MWh) Levelized AVC - Energy ($/MWh) Equiv. Escal. Series - AVC -Energy ($/MWh) Actual Annual AVC Energy ($/MWh) Levelized AVC - Energy ($...
AI summary The document presents a table comparing the avoided cost of energy demand-side management (DSM) under two Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios, 2.0C (Reference Case) and 2.1C, across multiple years from 2023 to 2045. It outlines actual annual avoided costs, levelized avoided costs, and equivalent escalation series for each year and scenario.
Roadmap Item 8 states: Continuously refine the Action Plan and Roadmap items via an evergreen IRP process. This process should facilitate annual updates as conditions change and technology or market options develop, and as Action Plan item...
AI summary Roadmap Item 8 emphasizes the need for continuous refinement of the Action Plan and Roadmap items through an ongoing Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process. This process will enable annual updates based on changing conditions, technological advancements, and progress on Action Plan items, with stakeholder input incorporated during updates.
Evergreen IRP Process - The IRP Action Plan and Roadmap items that were identified in the 2020 IRP and advanced in the first year of Action Plan implementation continue to reflect appropriate planning activities for Nova Scotia Power at th...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) acknowledges that the IRP Action Plan from the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) remains relevant but recognizes the need for an Evergreen IRP update in 2022 due to significant changes in the planning environment, including new renewable energy targets and carbon reduction requirements.
N-2IRP Action Plan Report Update
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April 29, 2022 Crystal Henwood Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor P.O. Box 1692, Unit "M" Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Henwood: Re: M10504 - IRP Action Plan (P-884) On A...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power) held an engagement session to review its 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan Report and proposed evergreen Study Scope. The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB) directed NS Power to file its draft 2022 Study Scope by April 29, 2022, along with a summary of stakeholder comments and responses.
1. Scope of Evergreen IRP 2022 Update – Assumptions AREA and the MEUs agree that changes have occurred since 2020 that warrant significant modeling updates. On Slide 2 of the 2022 Evergreen IRP Study Scope, NS Power states that the "evergr...
AI summary AREA and MEUs emphasize the need for updated assumptions in the Evergreen IRP 2022 study, requiring stakeholder input on GHG compliance modeling, Net Zero 2035 targets, firm import capacity, interconnection projects (TSR 411/412), battery storage, wind integration, and coal conversions. They stress transparency and timely information sharing to ensure assumptions reflect current data.
Resource Insight Inc. MEMORANDUM To: Bill Mahody, Q.C., Consumer Advocate From: Paul Chernick and John D. Wilson Date: April 18, 2022 Subject: Evergreen IRP Study Scope and Timeline NS Power's IRP Action Plan Update submitted in January 20...
AI summary Resource Insight Inc. acknowledges NS Power's January 2022 IRP Action Plan Update and its April 2022 stakeholder webinar as providing a comprehensive overview of issues requiring attention in the 2022 IRP update. The memo outlines NS Power's proposed approaches for the study's scope and timeline.
Planning Environment Changes There are a few points where we were not perfectly clear about NS Power's intentions regarding the changes in the planning environment. - a) NS Rate Base Procurement: We assume that NS Power will include this a...
AI summary The text outlines NS Power's uncertainties regarding resource commitments, Mersey Redevelopment evaluation, and reliability reassessments for transmission links. It notes updated wind resource modeling to address stability issues and the need to reflect early findings in IRP modeling.
Reliability Tie Considerations We recommend that the base case for the IRP include significant schedule contingency for the Reliability Tie construction schedule. Normally, there would be some "known unknowns" contingency built into the pl...
AI summary The text emphasizes the need for significant schedule and cost contingency in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the Reliability Tie project, citing complexities in collaboration with New Brunswick Power and ongoing supply-chain constraints. It recommends robust planning to address potential delays and cost increases, treating on-time delivery as a sensitivity case.
Clarifications from the Action Plan Presentation - 1. Renewable to Retail . The presentation indicated that there was some RtR activity over the last year. Can NS Power share any information regarding that activity? - 2. Near-Term Firm Imp...
AI summary The document outlines four questions raised during a regulatory proceeding, focusing on NS Power's Renewable to Retail (RtR) activity, near-term firm imports, updates on Transmission Study Reports (TSR 411/412), and potential Newfoundland imports. The inquiries seek clarity on transmission capacity, supply sources, and infrastructure requirements.
Introduction - On January 21, 2022, NS Power filed its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan Update. On - April 6, 2022, NS Power held a stakeholder engagement session on the IRP Action Plan Update - and provided a high-level overview...
AI summary NS Power submitted its 2022 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan Update and hosted stakeholder engagement on the Evergreen Study Scope and Timeline. EfficiencyOne provided feedback on the proposed study scope and timeline, emphasizing their participation in the regulatory process.
1. Planning Environment Changes - Slide two of NS Power's Evergreen IRP 2022 Scope and Timeline identifies several significant - environmental policy changes that have occurred since the completion of NS Power's IRP in - November 2020. The...
AI summary The document outlines key environmental policy changes impacting Nova Scotia's energy planning, including a 2030 renewable electricity standard (80% from renewables, 1100 GWh from IPPs), the Environmental Goals and Climate Change Reduction Act (EGCCRA) mandating coal phase-out by 2030 and GHG targets, federal carbon pricing updates, and a draft net-zero electricity sector discussion paper. E1 supports revising IRP scenarios to reflect these changes.
Treatment of Carbon Pricing - E1 believes the effects of carbon pricing remain relevant in the context of the 2022 Evergreen - IRP Process. In the IRP Action Plan update, NS Power states: - NS Power is currently modeling multiple options f...
AI summary E1 emphasizes the need to incorporate diverse carbon pricing options in the 2022 Evergreen IRP Process, noting NS Power's modeling of GHG compliance scenarios. E1 recommends treating demand response as firm capacity, including electrification costs in IRP modeling, updating load forecasts, and pairing DSM scenarios with IRP sensitivities to address environmental policy and electrification impacts.
overall collaborative discussion that allows for a full sharing of perspectives. PHP suggests that the opportunity for such meetings be considered in establishing the timelines for stakeholder input. Thank you for seeking comments on the S...
AI summary The Small Business Advocate (SBA) criticizes NSPI's proposed timeline for the 2022 Evergreen IRP, arguing it is too long and fails to account for recent policy changes (e.g., Renewable Energy Standard revisions, carbon pricing). The SBA urges shorter timelines to align with the Annual Capital Expenditure (ACE) Plan filing and improve responsiveness to market conditions.
Attachment 2 NS Power Responses to Stakeholder Comments Theme Stakeholder Comment NS Power Response Evergreen Scenarios, Assumptions and Sensitivities AREA What technical options are available to meet a potential Net Zero 2035 Electricity...
AI summary NS Power responds to AREA's question about technical options for meeting a Net Zero 2035 electricity system target. NS Power refers to the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions the Federal government's Clean Energy Standards discussion paper as a reference for non-emitting generation options.
EVERGREEN IRP APPROACH • The 2020 IRP Roadmap included reference to a process for refining the Action Plan and Roadmap items via an evergreen IRP process. Roadmap Item 8 states the following: "Continuously refine the Action Plan and Roadma...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Roadmap introduced an evergreen IRP process for continuous refinement of the Action Plan and Roadmap items. The 2021 IRP Action Plan Update Report outlined steps for annual updates, including modeling scenarios and stakeholder feedback, as conditions and technologies evolve.
CONDITIONS INITIATING EVERGREEN IRP - Planning environment changes noted in the 2021 IRP Action Plan Update indicate modeling updates are warranted: - Environmental Policy changes (carbon policy and pricing, 2030 coal phase-out, 80% RES, a...
AI summary The document outlines conditions for initiating an evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) due to changes in the planning environment, including updates to environmental policies, resource options, and electrification. Modeling updates are warranted based on significant changes observed post-2020 IRP.
OBJECTIVES - Complete a focused evaluation and refinement of the long-term electricity strategy developed as part of the 2020 IRP that is reflective of the current planning environment - Provide a venue for stakeholder consultation and eng...
AI summary The objectives include evaluating and refining the long-term electricity strategy from the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and providing a venue for stakeholder consultation in NS Power's resource planning as part of ongoing efforts.
PURPOSE - Assess the 2020 IRP Action Plan/Roadmap based on recent policy changes - Update the IRP Action Plan and Roadmap items as required based on the outcome of the analysis
AI summary The purpose of the proceeding is to assess the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan and Roadmap in light of recent policy changes and to update the plan as needed based on the analysis outcomes.
Review and Update 2020 IRP Assumptions - Identify where significant changes to the key drivers of the 2020 IRP (decarbonization trajectory, electrification load, and resource strategy) and the assumptions exist - Where significant change h...
AI summary This section outlines the process for reviewing and updating the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions, focusing on key drivers such as decarbonization trajectory, electrification load, and resource strategy. It emphasizes updating assumptions based on observed changes and retaining them if no significant changes are identified.
PROCESS AND DELIVERABLES Process Element Key Considerations Deliverable Stakeholder Input Opportunities Develop evergreen update Scope and Approach 2020 IRP Roadmap Study Scope and Timeline Stakeholder comment period following this worksho...
AI summary The document outlines the process and deliverables for an integrated resource plan (IRP) update, including stakeholder input opportunities at various stages such as developing the scope, refreshing input assumptions, completing draft modeling, and finalizing modeling results.
evergreen IRP Phase Date File evergreen Study Scope and Draft Responses to Stakeholders 28-Apr-2022 Provide Draft Assumptions and Modeling Scenarios/Early Insights 20-Jun-2022 Stakeholder Workshop Week of 20-Jun-2022 Stakeholder Feedback R...
AI summary This table outlines the timeline for the evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, including key milestones such as stakeholder workshops, feedback periods, and the submission of modeling results and action plans.
NEXT STEPS - The materials will be posted on the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Planning website - Comments on Study Scope and Timeline have been received and NS Power will be filing this document as well as the Stakeholder Feedback...
AI summary Next steps include posting materials on the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Planning website, filing feedback summaries with the UARB by April 29, and producing assumptions and modeling scenarios for review, including a workshop and subsequent comment period.
N-3IRP Action Plan Update
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Introduction Nova Scotia Power is pleased to provide this update to its IRP Action Plan. On November 30, 2020, Nova Scotia Power submitted Powering A Green Nova Scotia, Together: 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to the Nova Scotia Utili...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power submitted its 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, outlining an Action Plan and Roadmap. This update provides progress on 2022 Action Plan items, changes in the electricity planning environment, and planned 2023 work.
IRP Action Plan Overview
AI summary Overview of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan, focusing on Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) regulatory proceedings. The document outlines key themes related to resource planning and regulatory processes.
Action Plan Items Nova Scotia Power's 2020 IRP Action Plan consists of 5 Action Plan Items, some of which include multiple elements: This Annual Report provides an update on each of these Action Plan Items. Descriptions of the Action Plan...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan includes 5 items, with updates provided in the Annual Report. Descriptions are detailed in the Final IRP Report Summary, accessible via a linked document. The text references visual elements but focuses on procedural updates to the IRP.
Roadmap Items NS Power also monitorsthe following 8 Roadmap Itemsfor potential impact onAction Plan execution: Descriptions of the Action Plan Items can be found in the Final IRP Report Summary [(Section](https://irp.nspower.ca/files/key-d...
AI summary NS Power monitors eight Roadmap Items for potential impact on Action Plan execution, with updates integrated into related Action Plan Items. The evergreen IRP process continuously reflects significant changes since the 2020 IRP, as detailed in the Final IRP Report Summary.
Planning Environment Changes Maritime Link (ML) Base Block and Reliability - Nalcorfiled its "Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study 2022 Update" onOctober 3, 2022 which pointsto both: - On-Island capacity constraints in meeting Newfoundl...
AI summary Nalcor's 2022 study highlights on-island capacity constraints in NL and uncertainty around the Labrador Island Link's reliability, making additional Maritime Link imports unavailable. The 2020 IRP identified the Maritime Link as a potential resource, but near-term availability is uncertain.
Action Item 1a Throughout 2022,NS Power continued discussions with both New Brunswick and Newfoundland to explore opportunitiesfor incremental near-termfirmcapacity importsfrombothNewBrunswick andNewfoundland. Update on potential FirmImpor...
AI summary NS Power's attempts to secure near-term firm import capacity from New Brunswick and Newfoundland have faced significant obstacles due to transmission limits, committed exports, and capacity deficiencies. The 2020 IRP's assumptions and Nalcor's 2022 report indicate limited viability, leading NS Power to exclude these resources from near-term planning and the ongoing IRP update.
Reliability Tie Significant progress was made in 2022 on progressing the scope of work, including the following: - Continued ClassIII designwork for L-8005 - Commencement of a Facility Study (associatedwith TSR 411) - Negotiations with the...
AI summary Progress on the Reliability Tie project in 2022 included design work, facility studies, CIB negotiations, intertie agreements, and environmental assessments. Indigenous community and stakeholder engagement continued, though project timing is under review due to Bill 212's rate cap.
TSR 411 - NS Power completed a transmission planning study (TSR 411) to study the system impact associated with a 550MW import to Nova Scotia from New Brunswick, consistent with the Regional Integration Strategy evaluated in the 2020 IRP a...
AI summary NS Power conducted a transmission planning study (TSR 411) assessing a 550MW import from New Brunswick, aligning with the 2020 IRP and Atlantic Loop project. The 2022 study evaluated resource changes, including coal-to-gas conversions, battery storage, and wind generation, concluding system stability under load and dynamic modeling. The study advanced to the Facilities Study stage in 2022.
Electrification Strategy Jurisdictional Scan/Load Shapes - E3 completed a jurisdictional scan of North America, which confirmed the following areas offocusfor electrification inNova Scotia: - Transportation electric vehicle (EV) charging i...
AI summary E3's jurisdictional scan identified transportation EV infrastructure and building electrification as key focus areas for Nova Scotia. Load shapes were developed to assess peak load impacts from heat pump adoption and EV managed charging scenarios, integrated into the evergreen IRP work. Two scenarios were analyzed: current policy trends and a hybrid dual-fuel approach reducing peak load requirements.
Electrification Strategy Roadmap
AI summary The document outlines a roadmap for electrification strategy, focusing on transitioning to clean energy and enhancing grid reliability through integrated resource planning and regulatory compliance.
Roadmap Item 7 The 2022 load forecast includes consideration for electrification growth from increased heat pump adoption and the shift to electrification in the commercial and industrial sectors, supported by federal and provincial electr...
AI summary The 2022 load forecast incorporates electrification growth from heat pump adoption and industrial/commercial sector shifts, supported by federal and provincial policies. NS Power's evergreen IRP process extends the 2022 report to 2050, aligning with 2020 IRP scenarios and including DSM assumptions. Post-filing policies like the 2026 federal EV sales target and 2025 provincial oil heat restrictions may accelerate electrification impacts.
Action Plan Item 3a As discussed in the last IRP Action Plan Update (January 2022), the target retirement date for Trenton 5 was updated from 2023 to 2024. In order to continue to maintain resource adequacy while minimizing capital investm...
AI summary The retirement date for Trenton 5 was updated from 2023 to 2024, with operating restrictions to limit its hours. Recent IRP updates may impact retirement timelines, requiring replacement firm capacity via imports and the ECEI BESS project. NS Power will provide further updates in the 2023 10-Year System Outlook Report.
Fast Acting Generation - BESS IRP Action Plan Item 3c A Battery Energy Storage Project (200MW) was included in the 2022 ACE plan for subsequent submittal. Progress on the Battery Storage (200MW) projectincluded: - RFP for equipment supply...
AI summary The 200MW BESS project, initially part of the 2022 ACE plan, has been paused due to Bill 212. Progress included RFP, site selection, and feasibility studies. It's now classified as a transmission asset.
Fast Acting Generation – CT IRP Action Plan Item 3c The 2020 IRP identified that new fast acting generation is required to support coal phase out and thermal unit retirements, integration of variable renewable generation, and load growth d...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identified the need for new fast acting generation to support coal phase out and system reliability with the integration of variable renewable energy. NS Power conducted a survey of available fast acting generation technologies, focusing on peaking power, ancillary services, and hydrogen compatibility.
Roadmap Item 1 The 2020 IRP resource plans selected coal to gas conversions in roughly half of the key scenarios examined, indicating that converted units are a cost-effective source of dispatchable firmcapacity atrelatively low-capacity f...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) included coal-to-gas conversions as a cost-effective source of dispatchable firm capacity. Progress on the ECEI Coal-to-Gas conversion project advanced in 2022, but the project has been paused due to recent electricity rate cap legislation (Bill 212). Natural gas supply options are being evaluated due to pipeline constraints.
Roadmap Item 3 For the purposes of the 2020 IRP,sustaining capital estimatesfor the existing thermal assets were based on a High Utilization Factor approach (HUF), which reflects investment required to address wear on components driven by...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) used a High Utilization Factor (HUF) approach for sustaining capital estimates on thermal assets. The evergreen IRP now incorporates the Output Based Pricing System (OBPS) and the Early Insights model to reflect lower HUF utilization factors due to carbon pricing and environmental constraints.
Roadmap Item 3 Updated sustaining capital profiles are included as an assumption in the ongoing evergreen IRP update and corresponding modeling work (please referto the evergreen IRP assumptions material).
AI summary The document references updated sustaining capital profiles being included in the ongoing evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update and related modeling work, with a reference to the evergreen IRP assumptions material.
Thermal Investment The sustaining capital profiles for the thermal units have been updated based on the evergreen IRP utilization factor approach and the 2030 coal phase outrequirements. As referenced in the 2022 ACE Plan (Section 11.1.2),...
AI summary The thermal investment profile for NS Power has been updated based on the evergreen IRP utilization factor approach and the 2030 coal phase-out requirements. The 2022 ACE Plan indicates that current thermal generation investment is lower than the 2022 IRP capital forecast due to changes in utilization factors and reliability assumptions, which will affect future investment timelines.
CT Investment The sustaining capital valuesfor the diesel CTs has decreased as compared to the 2020 IRP assumptionsfor 2021/2022. This supports the 2020 IRP outcome in support of continued CT operation and confirms the evergreen modeling a...
AI summary The sustaining capital values for diesel combined cycle (CT) units have decreased compared to the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions for 2021/2022. This supports the 2020 IRP's conclusion to continue operating the diesel CT fleet and confirms the use of an evergreen modeling approach that assumes ongoing operation of the diesel CT fleet.
Hydro Investment Roadmap Item 3 The sustaining capital for the fixed capital cost portion of the small hydro systems for 2022 is lower than the 2020 IRP assumptions (approximately 15%). The capital spend that was forecasted for the Mersey...
AI summary The sustaining capital for small hydro systems in 2022 is lower than the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions due to deferred projects and updated capital spend forecasts. The Mersey system's capital spend has been deferred to refine project scope and engagement. These changes were incorporated into the ongoing evergreen IRP update and PLEXOS modeling.
Roadmap Item 4 NS Power's focus for low emitting fuels (specifically hydrogen) in 2022 has been to understand the potential future value of Hydrogen to the power system. This has occurred through engagement with prospective hydrogen produc...
AI summary NS Power is exploring the potential of hydrogen as a low-emitting fuel in 2022, engaging with developers and participating in the Atlantic Hydrogen Alliance. The ECCC Clean Electricity Regulation highlights hydrogen as an emerging technology for a net-zero electricity system. Legislative amendments in October 2022 support hydrogen development in Nova Scotia, and hydrogen is being integrated into the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling to assess its impact on the power system.
Updated Renewables/Storage Cost Trajectories Roadmap Item 5 This chart reflects the updated LCOE values for renewable generating resources included in the updated evergreen IRP assumptions.
AI summary This section presents updated Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) values for renewable generating resources as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions. The chart provides a visual representation of these updated cost trajectories.
The shape of the LCOE trajectory between 2023 and 2033 is a result of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for qualifying renewables combined with technology cost decline forecasts. Sub-Technology Capacity Factor Onshore Wind 39% Offshore Wind...
AI summary The LCOE trajectory between 2023 and 2033 is influenced by the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for qualifying renewables and technology cost declines. The table provides capacity factors for onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar, with a note that the offshore wind capacity factor is a high assumption from the 2020 IRP.
Real $ Cost Trajectory Forecasts This chart reflects updated renewables and storage cost trajectories included in the updated evergreen IRP assumptions. The prices have been updated based on the NREL ATB 'Moderate' price trajectory forecas...
AI summary The document presents updated real-dollar cost trajectory forecasts for renewables and storage, based on the NREL ATB 'Moderate' price trajectory assumptions included in the updated evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumptions. These forecasts extend to the year 2050.
Action Plan Item 5 NS Power will have the models available to calculate avoided costs of DSM forspecific use casesif requested in the future. Similar to the 2020 IRP, the avoided costs will be calculated by NS Power. Since this is not part...
AI summary NS Power will calculate avoided costs of DSM for specific use cases upon future request, similar to the 2020 IRP. This calculation will occur after the completion of the evergreen IRP work if requested.
Action Plan Item 4 - E1 has completed its analysisforthe 2023 2025 Demand Side Management(DSM) Resource Plan - E1 and NSP supported a resource plan thatincludes: - Incremental cumulative net energy savings of 412.7 GWh - Cumulative peak de...
AI summary E1 has completed its analysis for the 2023-2025 Demand Side Management (DSM) Resource Plan, which includes energy savings, peak demand reductions, and investment levels. The plan was filed with the UARB and approved. Updated DSM forecasts were provided for evergreen IRP modeling, including settlement plan values and projections beyond 2025.
Roadmap Item 8 Roadmap Item 8 stated that NS Power would initiate evergreen IRP updates when significant changes to the planning environment are observed. This approach isintended to reflectthe increasing pace of change in the planning env...
AI summary Roadmap Item 8 outlines NS Power's initiative to update the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) continuously when significant changes in the planning environment are observed. An evergreen IRP update was initiated in 2022 and is currently underway, with updates and assumptions released in January 2023 for stakeholder review.
N-4Evergreen IRP Action Plan & Roadmap Update
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The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process identified both [Action Plan and Roadmap](https://irp.nspower.ca/files/key-documents/final-irp-report/E3_NS-Power-2020-IRP-Report_Summary_Nov-27-2020.pdf) items intended to advance NS Power's...
AI summary The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process identified key actions to advance NS Power's long-term electricity strategy. An evergreen IRP process was proposed to refine the plan based on environmental, load, and resource changes. The 2023 evergreen IRP includes updated assumptions, modeling scenarios, and results to align with Nova Scotia's 2030 environmental targets and support a decarbonized future.
Nuclear (Small Modular Reactors) - Capacity additions of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are selected at the end of the planning horizon (2048) for the No Atlantic Loop (CE1-E1-R2) scenarios (including the hybrid peak and accelerated electri...
AI summary The document discusses the inclusion of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in the No Atlantic Loop scenarios by 2048, driven by the need for firm, dispatchable, non-emitting resources and current assumptions on commercial availability and cost.
Integration Assets - The reliability tie[1](#page-7-3) is required in all scenarios to support the integration of variable renewable generation (wind and solar) and to serve as the first leg of the Atlantic Loop (the latter in the with Atl...
AI summary The document discusses the necessity of the Reliability Tie for integrating variable renewable energy (wind and solar) and supporting the Atlantic Loop. It also highlights the addition of synchronous condensers by 2030 to support wind integration, with future studies confirming additional needs. Figures illustrate new resource capacity by 2030, 2035, and 2050.
IRP ACTION PLAN
AI summary The document introduces the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan, focusing on regulatory strategies for energy resource planning in Nova Scotia. It outlines initiatives related to demand-side management, renewable energy, and grid modernization, aligning with broader policy goals and regulatory frameworks.
Item 1b: Regional Integration Continue working with neighboring jurisdictions in support of the Atlantic Loop and other opportunities for regional integration, conducting detailed engineering and economic studies for firm import options re...
AI summary The text emphasizes advancing regional integration through collaboration with neighboring jurisdictions, focusing on the Atlantic Loop and other initiatives. It calls for engineering and economic studies to assess firm import options requiring new transmission investments, with evaluations of supply security, emission intensity, and dispatch flexibility.
ITEM 2: ELECTRIFICATION Electrification is a key variable in this IRP as increased electric vehicle (EV) adoption and heating electrification play a significant role in increasing load requirements through the planning horizon. The evergre...
AI summary Electrification is a critical factor in Nova Scotia's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), driven by rising electric vehicle adoption and heating electrification. These trends are projected to increase load requirements by approximately 200MW by 2030, as outlined in the evergreen IRP load forecast.
Item 2a: Electrification Strategy Publish Electrification Strategy report, developed as part of the IRP Action Plan, in 2023 with opportunity for stakeholder review and comment.
AI summary The Electrification Strategy report, developed as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan in 2023, is to be published with opportunities for stakeholder review and comment.
Item 2b: Data Collection Continue to collect detailed data, including data on the quantity, flexibility and hourly load shape of incremental electrification demand, to assist with further system planning work. Updated 14 IRP Action Plan an...
AI summary The proceeding emphasizes the need to collect detailed data on electrification demand, including quantity, flexibility, and hourly load shape, to support system planning. This aligns with the Atlantic Clean Power Roadmap and the updated IRP Action Plan and Roadmap.
Item 3a: Thermal Plant Retirement Proceed with Trenton 5 retirement plan based on the updated evergreen IRP projections (2027/2028). NS Power will manage operating restrictions of the thermal fleet to meetfirm capacity requirements are met...
AI summary NS Power proposes retiring Trenton 5 based on updated IRP projections (2027/2028), managing thermal fleet operations to meet capacity needs while minimizing capital investment. Coal retirement plans for remaining units will consider cold reserve modes to integrate new resources and reduce utilization over time.
Item 4b: Hybrid Peak Electrification Scenario Further assess the value of the hybrid peak building electrification scenario based on the outcomes of the evergreen IRP. This will include development of program cost estimates and validation...
AI summary The hybrid peak electrification scenario is to be evaluated using the evergreen IRP's outcomes, focusing on program cost estimates and savings validation. NS Power will draw on experiences from North American utilities implementing similar programs to enhance the scenario's value.
IRP ROADMAP The following roadmap items were identified to monitor for changes in the planning environment and support progress on the path to 2030 and beyond. NS Power will monitor the roadmap items in parallel with execution of the Actio...
AI summary NS Power will monitor roadmap items to support progress on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) towards 2030 and beyond, executed in parallel with the Action Plan.
ITEM 1: WIND INTEGRATION STUDIES Publish the results ofthe ongoing wind integration studiesin 2023. Provide guidance on integration asset requirements as an outcome in alignment with the planned variable renewable capacity additions. Conti...
AI summary The proceeding requires publishing 2023 wind integration study results, aligning asset requirements with variable renewable capacity additions, and monitoring for divergence from the evergreen IRP's assumptions, with updates triggered as needed.
ITEM 2: SUSTAINING CAPITAL Pursue economic reinvestment in existing hydro and combustion turbines with individual capital applications as applicable; economic justification as part of a capital application will be required to confirm a dec...
AI summary The document outlines sustaining capital strategies for existing hydro and thermal units, requiring economic justification for Mersey hydro redevelopment. It emphasizes monitoring IRP assumptions, unit reliability, and triggering ELCC/PRM studies for significant deviations.
ITEM 5: FEDERAL CLEAN ELECTRICITY REGULATIONS (CER) Track the ongoing development of the Federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER). In particular, monitor for changes to carbon pricing policy or limitations on use of gas and oil-fired ge...
AI summary Monitor the Federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) for changes in carbon pricing policy and limitations on gas and oil-fired generating facilities beyond those in the evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
ITEM 6: ELECTRIFICATION & LOAD GROWTH Continue to monitor electrification and load growth in Nova Scotia relative to the 2022 and 2023 Load Forecast reports which incorporate electrification impacts. Also, monitor for the addition of large...
AI summary The proceeding emphasizes the need to monitor electrification and load growth in Nova Scotia, referencing the 2022 and 2023 Load Forecast reports. It also highlights the potential impact of new large industrial customers on resource requirements.
ITEM 7: EVERGREEN IRP Refine the Action Plan and Roadmap items via an evergreen IRP process. This process should facilitate annual updates as conditions change and technology or market options develop, and as Action Plan items are complete...
AI summary The document outlines the need to refine the Action Plan and Roadmap items through an evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, allowing for annual updates as conditions, technologies, and market options evolve. NS Power will provide summaries of updates in IRP Action Plan reporting and include opportunities for stakeholder feedback.
ITEM 8: EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Monitor developments in technology/enabling policy for emerging resources including, but not limited to, SMRs, geothermal, hydrogen combustion turbines, and long duration storage. Significant changes in cost o...
AI summary The document calls for monitoring developments in emerging technologies and enabling policies, such as small modular reactors, geothermal, hydrogen combustion turbines, and long-duration storage. It notes that significant changes in cost or availability compared to IRP assumptions may require specific analysis.
ITEM 10: FIRM IMPORTS Continue to monitor opportunities for near-term firm imports over existing transmission infrastructure.
AI summary The document suggests continuing to monitor opportunities for near-term firm imports over existing transmission infrastructure, indicating a focus on utilizing current infrastructure for importing electricity.
ENABLING THE ACTION PLAN Although the evergreen IRP model provides a range of outcomes to 2050, the Action Plan reflects NS Power's near-termpath forwardand the progressionof these identified resources and programs will be critical to meet...
AI summary The text discusses NS Power's updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan and Roadmap, highlighting the resource development plan to meet 2030 decarbonization targets. The plan outlines the timeline for project development and implementation, with the note that it is subject to change and provides a visualization of how the Action Plan may be executed.
CONCLUSION The evergreen IRP Action Plan and Roadmap will play a key role in enabling NS Power to meet the challenges and opportunities of the ever-evolving electricity planning environment. This plan serves to enable the path to 2030 whil...
AI summary The evergreen IRP Action Plan and Roadmap are central to NS Power's strategy for achieving 2030 decarbonization targets and building a resilient energy future. The plan emphasizes stakeholder engagement, adaptability, and long-term planning while acknowledging evolving factors like electrification, climate policies, and renewable technology advancements.
GLOSSARY The modeling scenarios and their descriptions can be accesse[d here.](https://irp.nspower.ca/files/key-documents/annual-evergreen-materials/Evergreen-IRP-Updated-Modeling-Scenarios-Descriptions.pdf) For additional definitions, ple...
AI summary The glossary defines key terms related to energy infrastructure and planning, including the Reliability Tie, Atlantic Loop, and Variable Renewable Energy. It also introduces the Modified Mid DSM (MDSM) plan, a demand-side management strategy modeled in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
88470EVERGREEN IRP draft results and process update
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EVERGREEN IRP DRAFT RESULTS AND PROCESS UPDATE JANUARY 13, 2023
AI summary The document titled 'EVERGREEN IRP DRAFT RESULTS AND PROCESS UPDATE' from January 13, 2023, appears to be an overview of draft results and procedural updates related to an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). However, no substantive content or details are provided in the text beyond the heading and date.
EVERGREEN IRP PROCESS UPDATE Following the development of evergreen IRP assumptions and scenarios, the NS Power team has progressed to themodelingphase of the process. NS Power is focused on developing a robust long-term planning study tha...
AI summary NS Power has advanced to the modeling phase of the evergreen IRP process, presenting draft results from selected scenarios. Recent environmental changes necessitate updated assumptions and additional modeling, though NS Power emphasizes sharing these preliminary findings with stakeholders to explore potential planning outcomes.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS – DRAFT RESULTS The following are high level key findings and insights from the draft results: - All scenarios modeled incorporate the addition of significant capacity of variable renewables resources, which will requir...
AI summary The draft results highlight the need for further study on variable renewables' system impacts, decreasing gas generation post-2030 coal phase-out, lower NPVRR with Atlantic Loop in-service dates, and increased curtailment with rising wind capacity. Optimized plans balance gas resources and emerging tech to meet 2035 net-zero targets.
DRAFT MODELING RESULTS
AI summary The document presents draft modeling results, though no specific details or analysis are provided in the text. The content is limited to a heading and an image reference, with no substantive discussion of modeling outcomes or methodologies.
The scenarios in green reflect the scenarios modeled in the draft modeling results: Scenarios Clean Energy Policy Electrification Resource Strategy Sensitivities CE1-E1-R1 CE1-E1-R1-DH CE1-E1-R1-HFPP CE1-E1-R1-MDSM CE1-E1-R1-MMDSM CE1-E1-R...
AI summary The text outlines various modeling scenarios under the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including different clean energy policies, electrification strategies, resource strategies, and sensitivities. The scenarios are categorized under different timeframes and conditions, such as NZ2035 and NZ2050, and include variations like the Atlantic Loop and No Atlantic Loop.
CE1-E1-R1 NZ 2035-CURRENT POLICY AND TRENDS -ATLANTIC LOOP Preliminary Scenario Metrics and Evaluation 26 Year NPVRR ($MM 2025$) $19,011 Key Input Assumptions and Observations 26 Year NPVRR with End Effects ($MM 2025$) $26,005 Capacity Exp...
AI summary The document outlines preliminary scenario metrics and evaluation for the 2035-current policy and trends related to the Atlantic Loop. It includes net present value of rate returns, capacity expansion plans, and carbon emissions projections from 2025 to 2050. Key assumptions include the phase-out of coal by 2030, the addition of renewable energy sources, and the implementation of carbon pricing.
NZ 2035-CURRENT POLICY AND TRENDS -NO ATLANTIC LOOP -HIGH DISTRIBUTED ENERGY Preliminary Scenario Metrics and Evaluation 26 Year NPVRR ($MM 2025$) $16,869 Key Input Assumptions and Observations 26 Year NPVRR with End Effects ($MM 2025$) $2...
AI summary This section discusses a scenario analysis for NZ 2035, focusing on policy and trends with high distributed energy penetration and no Atlantic Loop. Key findings include higher NPVRR, increased gas capacity, and higher CO emissions from 2035-2050 due to higher installed gas capacity and variable renewable energy curtailment.
NZ 2035-CURRENT POLICY AND TRENDS -ATLANTIC LOOP - ATLANTIC LOOP ADJUSTED TIMING Preliminary Scenario Metrics and Evaluation 26 Year NPVRR ($MM 2025$) $18,788 Key Input Assumptions and Observations 26 Year NPVRR with End Effects ($MM 2025$...
AI summary The document presents preliminary scenario metrics and evaluation for the Atlantic Loop project, including NPVRR values, CO emissions, and capacity expansion considerations. The analysis compares different planning scenarios, noting that delaying the Atlantic Loop's in-service date to 2035 still provides value despite higher NPVRR and emissions compared to previous plans.
GEOTHERMAL - Addition of ~125 MW of Geothermal by 2050 for all scenarios, beginning in 2030s - Early capacity additions reflected in the delayed and no Atlantic Loop scenarios - NS Power is reviewing IRP assumptions for Geothermal in the c...
AI summary The document outlines plans to add ~125 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050, starting in the 2030s, with early deployments in delayed and no Atlantic Loop scenarios. NS Power is reassessing IRP assumptions for geothermal based on Fall 2022 provincial information.
SUMMARY OF DRAFT RESULTS INSTALLED CAPACITY (CONTINUED)
AI summary The text is a heading for a continuation of a summary discussing draft results related to installed capacity, likely within the context of Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and energy infrastructure planning.
WIND AND SOLAR - Significant contribution from wind generation for all scenarios; additional wind generation in the No Atlantic Loop scenario as compared to CE1-E1-R1 in 2030 and beyond - DelayedAtlantic Loop scenario showing the highest s...
AI summary The text discusses the significant role of wind and solar generation in various scenarios, noting higher solar generation in the Delayed Atlantic Loop scenario and increased curtailment due to system constraints as wind capacity increases.
FIRM IMPORTS • Less reliance on firm import energy over the planning horizon in the delayed Atlantic Loop scenario as a result of the systemadding othertypes of generating capacity (solar, CT)in the early yearsto meetthe 2030 environmental...
AI summary The document discusses reduced reliance on firm import energy in the delayed Atlantic Loop scenario due to the addition of other generating capacities, such as solar and CT, to meet 2030 environmental targets.
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES PROVINCIAL CARBON POLICY - Under the terms of the federal carbon framework to 2030, the Province of Nova Scotia was required to determine whether to extend the existing cap-and-trade system, create a set of pro...
AI summary Nova Scotia is transitioning from a cap-and-trade system to a provincial Output-Based Performance Standards (OBPS) system starting in 2023, as required by the federal carbon framework. The Environmental Act has been updated to reflect this change, though specific regulations for the OBPS have not yet been released. NS Power will incorporate the new standards into its 2023 to 2030 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) model once details are available.
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES ADDITIONAL FIRM IMPORTS AND RELIABILITY - Nalcor filed its "Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study 2022 Update" on October 3, 2022 which points to both: - o On-Island capacity constraints in meeting NL load re...
AI summary Nalcor's 2022 Reliability and Resource Adequacy Study highlights on-island capacity constraints and reliability issues with the Labrador Island Link (LIL), leading NS Power to assume the ML Block B resource is unavailable and adjust the Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of the Nova Scotia Block from 98% to 95%.
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES RATE CAP LEGISLATION - NS Power was engaged in a General Rate Application (GRA) overthe course of 2022 - The Province passed legislationto limitthe increase in electricity rates - Thislegislation(Bill 212) has...
AI summary NS Power's General Rate Application (GRA) in 2022 was affected by Bill 212, which limits electricity rate increases. This legislation has created uncertainty around ECEI investments, including the Atlantic Loop, which have been put on hold. These investments, previously included in the IRP assumptions, will not be fixed in the next modeling round.
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES FEDERAL INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT (ITC) The Federal Government announced an investment tax credit for clean technologies, with a focus on net-zero technologies and battery storage solutionsto incent progresstowards...
AI summary The Federal Government has introduced a 30% refundable investment tax credit (ITC) for clean technologies, including solar, wind, SMRs, and storage systems, aimed at promoting net-zero technologies. The ITC will be available from 2025 and will phase out by 2035. The tax credit will impact capital cost assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling.
NEXT STEPS - NS Power will update assumptionsas described in this package and continuemodeling - Schedule of Next Steps: - Provide updated assumptions January 26th - Stakeholderfeedback on draftresults and updatedassumptions requested by F...
AI summary The document outlines the next steps for NS Power, including updating assumptions, stakeholder feedback timelines, issuing modeling results, and a report on outcomes and an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan.