N-12022 Load Forecast Report - Redacted
13 passages
k (including DR) ..................................................... 84 30 Figure 58: Peak Contribution Components (MW)........................................................................ 85 DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 4 of 98 REDACTED...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report includes figures analyzing peak demand contributions, forecast accuracy, weather-normalized firm peak data, residential and commercial end-use peak shares, load research data comparisons, energy/peak sensitivity, and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenario comparisons, focusing on load forecasting methodologies and demand response integration.
residential and commercial rate classes. The SAE models explicitly 27 incorporate end-use energy intensity projections into the Load Forecast. End-use energy 28 forecasts derived from the residential and commercial SAE models are then comb...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report projects a 0.3% annual increase in Net System Requirement (NSR), driven by near-term customer growth, EV adoption, and hospital expansions, offset by long-term DSM initiatives and solar installations. Forecasts incorporate SAE models for residential/commercial end-use and econometric industrial projections.
1 Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Net System Requirement and System Peak Year NSR (GWh) Growth (%) System Peak (MW) Growth (%) 2012 10,475 -12.0 1,882 -13.2 2013 11,194 6.9 2,033 8.0 2014 11,037 -1.4 2,118 4.2 2015 11,099 0.6 2,015 -4.9 20...
AI summary The table presents historical and projected Net System Requirement (NSR) and System Peak data from 2012 to 2032, showing fluctuating growth rates in energy demand and peak load, which informs infrastructure planning and system reliability considerations.
0.9 2,532 2.1 2 DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 10 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED
AI summary The document references a 2022 Load Forecast Report, which is part of infrastructure and resource planning efforts. The report's content is redacted, but it likely addresses electricity demand projections and system requirements for Nova Scotia's energy sector.
were evaluated and what was incorporated into the 23 forecast early in the process. 24 25 In accordance with the Board’s direction, NS Power revised and enhanced the 2022 Load 26 Forecast in the following manner: 27 28 • The peak design te...
AI summary NS Power revised the 2022 Load Forecast per the Board’s direction, incorporating historic temperature data, warming trends, population-weighted weather analysis, and summaries of Smart Grid/Demand Response projects. System peak accuracy was added to Appendix C, with references to Sections 4.2, 10, and other documentation.
relationship of the Load Forecast to the Company’s evergreen 27 IRP modeling update, the EV model assumptions, vehicle-to-grid technology, and 28 customer growth in the province. 29 DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 14 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL...
AI summary NS Power collaborated with E3 to develop load forecasts for space heating and EV uptake under the 2020 IRP Action Plan, aiming to meet emissions goals and EV targets. The analysis uses stock rollover models and was presented to stakeholders in April 2022.
e 18 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 of energy sales through wind production, with 10 percent serving residential customers, 50 2 percent serving commercial customers, and 30 percent s...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report adjusts energy sales forecasts by subtracting wind production contributions (10% residential, 50% commercial, 30% industrial). Peak demand remains unchanged due to NS Power's obligation to serve full customer peaks. Weather impacts are analyzed using Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) based on 10-year temperature data from Shearwater Airport, showing a warming trend.
21, pages 6 (M10109). DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 29 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Both retail sales and disposable income show distinct impacts from COVID, while 2 household compensat...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of economic factors like retail sales, disposable income, and work-from-home activity on residential load forecasts. It highlights the use of housing completions as a key indicator for residential customer forecasts, referencing a decision by the NSUARB to re-evaluate this approach due to population growth and housing shortages.
Page 73 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 to historic levels in 2021 and are forecast to increase load by another in 2022. 2 Several new facilities or expansions are expected in the mini...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report indicates that load levels are expected to rise following historic levels in 2021. New industrial projects in mining, manufacturing, and processing sectors are anticipated to contribute significantly to load increases, with cumulative GWh values provided for 2022 through 2025. The report also references historical and forecast sales for the Other Industrial sector.
1 10.0 PEAK DEMAND 2 3 The total system peak is defined as the highest single hourly average demand experienced 4 in a year. It includes both firm and interruptible loads. Due to the weather-sensitive load 5 component in Nova Scotia, the t...
AI summary The text defines total system peak demand and explains how NS Power forecasts peak demand using an end-use approach. It includes peak mitigation strategies such as EVs and demand response (DR) activities, referencing the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and DSM Potential Study. DR programs like Direct Load Control and Critical Peak Pricing are highlighted.
nt. The achievable potential of these programs was used in the 25 Load Forecast. NS Power's IRP action plan has targeted 75 MW of capacity for DR 26 deployment by 2025. The estimates in the Load Forecast have been moved back by one 27 year...
AI summary The Load Forecast Report discusses the achievable potential of demand response (DR) programs, aligning with NS Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) target of 75 MW of capacity by 2025. The forecast uses an effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of 48% to account for intermittency, with reassessment planned as more data is gathered.
FIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 67: System Peak Sensitivity 2 3 4 This analysis provides a potential range of outcomes for the 2022 Load Forecast. Energy 5 is most sensitive to Economics over the...
AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses the sensitivity of energy and peak demand to factors such as economics and temperature. It compares the 2021 and 2022 Load Forecasts with the 2020 IRP cases, noting similarities in outcomes despite new analyses on space heating and EV adoption. The report also mentions stakeholder discussions regarding assumptions about incentives affecting EV and heat pump uptake.
IRP Mid Electrification 11,332 2,085 11,363 2,375 IRP Low Electrification 11,302 2,078 10,809 2,094 12 27 Peak temperature of -13.7 compared to -15 for the other forecasts. DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 98 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMAT...
AI summary The text includes a table with forecast values for energy requirements and load forecasts, including different electrification scenarios and temperature data. It references a 2022 Load Forecast Report and an appendix with forecast values from NS Power.
N-8Evidence of John Wilson, CA
8 passages
imes before utility regulators in California, Colorado, 23 Nova Scotia and the Southeast U.S., and appeared numerous additional times before various 24 regulatory and legislative bodies. 25 Q: Have you previously testified in other proceed...
AI summary John D. Wilson testifies for the Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate regarding NS Power’s 2022 Load Forecast Report, which projects increased energy demand due to climate change and EV adoption, requiring additional peaking capacity. The report refines prior forecasts with updated warming trends and EV uptake assumptions.
l is important to the load forecast in a number of respects, particularly 4 with respect to estimating line losses. NS Power has not updated its line loss estimates since 5 2013. 6 Q: Should this be sufficient to update its line loss deter...
AI summary NS Power has not updated its line loss determination model since 2013. The witness recommends the Board renew its directive for NS Power to complete the model, with quarterly progress reports and NS Power bearing the costs due to prior failure.
SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2019– Research Director, Resource Insight, Inc. Provides research, technical assist- Present ance, and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning, economics, and regulation. Reviews electric-u...
AI summary Summary of professional experience in energy regulation, including roles in utility planning, rate design, conservation programs, renewable energy evaluation, and regulatory policy. Highlights work with organizations focused on energy efficiency, market data, and air pollution reduction.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 4 “Building the Energy Efficiency Resource for the TVA Region,” presentation on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy to the Tennessee Valley Authority Integrated Resource Plannin...
AI summary John D. Wilson from Resource Insight, Incorporated has participated in numerous energy efficiency and policy discussions, focusing on integrated resource planning, renewable energy, and regulatory challenges in the Southeast U.S., including presentations on energy efficiency modeling, carbon markets, and the Clean Power Plan.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 5 EXPERT TESTIMONY 2008 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2007-358-E, surrebuttal testimony on behalf of Environmental Defense, the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League, Southern Allia...
AI summary Expert testimony discusses energy efficiency cost recovery mechanisms, including shareholder incentives and lost revenue adjustments, across multiple regulatory dockets. Testimonies also address the adequacy of energy efficiency considerations in integrated resource plans by utility companies.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 6 2011 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2011-09-E, allowable ex parte briefing on behalf of Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, South Carolina Coastal Conservation League, and Upstate Forev...
AI summary The text outlines various regulatory proceedings involving energy efficiency and integrated resource plans in South Carolina and Georgia, with John D. Wilson representing environmental and consumer advocacy groups. The proceedings focus on the adequacy of energy efficiency considerations, resource mix, and the use of renewable energy alternatives.
se of solar power as an energy resource. 2014 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2014-246-E, direct testimony generic proceeding on behalf of the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. Methods for cal...
AI summary The text outlines various regulatory proceedings involving the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, focusing on the calculation of dependable capacity credit for renewable resources, reserve margin requirements, and the adequacy of renewable energy consideration in integrated resource plans.
John D. Wilson • Resource Insight, Incorporated Page 7 2019 Georgia PSC Docket Nos. 42310 and 42311, direct testimony with Bryan A. Jacob in Georgia Power’s 2019 integrated resource plan and demand side management plan on behalf of Souther...
AI summary The text outlines testimony provided by John D. Wilson and Paul Chernick in various regulatory proceedings in Georgia and Nova Scotia. These testimonies cover topics such as integrated resource planning, demand side management, capital expenditure plans, and infrastructure projects, with a focus on cost classification, decommissioning, and project justification.
N-12NS Power Rebuttal Evidence
9 passages
Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF The Public Utilities Act, R.S.N.S. 1989, c.380, as amended 2022 Load Forecast Report NS Power Rebuttal Evidence Filed: September 26, 2022 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebu...
AI summary NS Power submitted a rebuttal to the 2022 Load Forecast Report as part of the regulatory process under the Public Utilities Act. The document outlines evidence provided in response to the forecast, which is critical for infrastructure planning and resource allocation in Nova Scotia's energy sector.
he Capital Project Retrofit of Municipal Facilities and Signature Initiatives from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, and the Zero Emission Transit Fund from Infrastructure Canada. DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 11 of 25 2022...
AI summary The document outlines the Capital Project, including municipal facility retrofits and the Zero Emission Transit Fund from Infrastructure Canada, as part of a 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal. Filed on September 26, 2022, it references initiatives by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and Infrastructure Canada.
ILED: September 26, 2022 Page 12 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 NS Power Response: 2 3 NS Power agrees with this recommendation. Current pilot programs include 4 time variable pricing, water heater control and...
AI summary NS Power agrees to incorporate demand response measures from the IRP Action Plan into future forecasts and highlights pilot programs like time-variable pricing and a new tariff for multi-unit buildings. It acknowledges limited adoption of electric thermal storage for peak load moderation.
.1.16 Recommendation 16: 30 31 “We ask NSPI to evaluate commercial heat use more fully as to 32 what is driving it and how the peak impacts could be moderated.” 33 DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 14 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebu...
AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding commercial heat use forecasting, peak load discrepancies, and 2032 peak sensitivity analysis. It attributes peak differences to weather adjustments, validates methodology using 2022 data, and cites collaboration with E1 and alignment with the IRP Action Plan.
LED: September 26, 2022 Page 15 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 NS Power Response: 2 3 NS Power agrees with the recommendation and will provide a peak sensitivity 4 analysis similar to what was done for energy i...
AI summary NS Power agrees to provide a peak sensitivity analysis for load forecasting and references existing report details for Figure D8. They also highlight Figure 68 comparing forecasts with IRP scenarios, noting the 2022 evergreen IRP work will evaluate electrification and DSM impacts.
FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 18 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 3.2.5 Recommendation 5: 2 3 “NS Power should update those same load forecast models to 4 reflect the findings from Itron with respect to real-wor...
AI summary NS Power agrees to update load forecast models with Itron's findings on heat pump impacts and policy goals for electrification. It acknowledges challenges in heat pump water heater adoption due to cost and cooling effects, and commits to quarterly progress reports on the line loss determination model as per the Board's directive.
1 3.3.2 Recommendation 2: 2 3 “The SBA recommends further explicit incorporation of 4 historical data obtained through the SGNS Project, forecasted 5 EV and electric heating adoption rates based upon currently 6 available or planned incent...
AI summary The SBA recommends incorporating historical SGNS Project data, EV/electric heating adoption forecasts with incentive considerations, and uncertainty evaluation. NS Power responds that data will be gathered from multiple sources, including E3's 2022 findings, and uncertainty will be modeled via the IRP. E1 recommends updating heat pump modeling to reflect current cold-climate adoption trends and remove misaligned lock-out temperatures.
D: September 26, 2022 Page 21 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 NS Power Response: 2 3 The scenario modeled by E3 assumed a COP of 2.3 at -15 degrees Celsius for 4 new heat pumps installed over the forecast period...
AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding electrification scenarios by agreeing to explore a hybrid approach in the 2022 IRP Evergreen analysis. They note limitations in the adoption of ETS units, wood and pellet stoves, and gas heating systems due to factors like limited uptake, physical effort requirements, and limited natural gas availability.
1 3.4.3 Recommendation 3: 2 3 “That NS Power provide a plan and explanation for the 4 remaining demand response capacity required to satisfy the 5 projected 2025 capacity, detailing the incremental program 6 options to be utilized and how...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's response to recommendations regarding demand response (DR) capacity planning and the application of an ELCC factor to DR programs. NS Power explains that DR potential was identified using E1’s study and that DR is included in the load forecast as a foreseeable opportunity. The company is consulting with E1 and stakeholders on DR implementation.
87729Board Decision Letter
3 passages
October 31, 2022 [email protected] Jennifer Ross Manager, Regulatory Strategy Nova Scotia Power Inc. 1223 Lower Water Street Halifax, NS B3J 3S8 Dear Ms. Ross: M10569 – Nova Scotia Power Inc. – 2022 Load Forecast Report – (P-194) On...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. submitted its 2022 10-Year Load Forecast Report, triggering a regulatory proceeding. The Board established a paper hearing timeline and approved confidentiality measures. Multiple intervenors (SBA, CA, IG, HGL, EOne) and Synapse Energy Economics participated, with evidence submissions and rebuttals exchanged between June and September 2022.
forecasted that NSR will experience an average annual increase of 0.3 percent between 2023 and 2032. With respect to system peak, NS Power forecasts annual growth of 1.6 percent between 2023 and 2032. These forecasts result in a projected...
AI summary NS Power forecasts 0.3% annual NSR growth and 1.6% system peak growth from 2023-2032, projecting 5.7% higher NSR and 28.7% higher peak demand by 2032 compared to 2021. Table 1 compares forecasted vs actual energy and peak demand changes from 2017-2022, highlighting significant 2022 growth discrepancies.
he elasticity used in the SAE model to exclude elasticities calculated from non- winter peaking utilities or to apply elasticities from Canadian studies of Canadian electric utilities; - Evaluate the input variables in the residential mode...
AI summary The text outlines recommendations for improving NS Power's modeling practices, including re-evaluating elasticity assumptions, updating residential model inputs (e.g., income metrics, housing data), aligning economic forecasts with major banks, refining EV adoption rate data, and maintaining communication on infrastructure projects to ensure system adequacy.
86600Synapse (NSPI) IR-1 to IR-41
3 passages
Document #:296069 Date Filed: June 14, 2022 Synapse (NSPI) Page 5 of 16 1 Request IR-10: 2 Solar Generation (PV) (Section 4.4, pp 45-47) 3 a. Please provide supporting data for the average capacity and capacity factor for the PV 4 installa...
AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests for data on solar PV capacity, home battery costs, end-use intensity calculations, and commercial/industrial growth assumptions. It seeks detailed explanations for figures and projections related to renewable energy, energy storage, and demand-side management.
uss and explain. 32 33 Request IR-31: 34 Sensitivity Analysis (Section 11, 2020 IRP Comparison, pp 97-98) 35 a. Please confirm that the reference to Figure 69 should be to Figure 68.
AI summary The text references a request (IR-31) seeking clarification on a sensitivity analysis in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) comparison, specifically noting a potential error in referencing Figure 69 instead of Figure 68.
Document #:296069 Date Filed: June 14, 2022 Synapse (NSPI) Page 12 of 16 1 c. Please provide in electronic spreadsheet format the calculations used to produce the 2 commercial sales forecast. 3 d. For the XHeat variable please provide the...
AI summary The document contains a series of requests for detailed data and explanations related to various models and forecasts, including commercial sales forecasts, statistical models, and factors driving changes in variables like XHeat and XCool. These requests aim to ensure transparency and thoroughness in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and other forecasting methodologies.
87729Board Decision Letter
4 passages
ing storm closures at peak periods. Lastly, Mr. Wilson requested that NS Power complete the line loss determination model and report on its progress on a quarterly basis until the project is complete. The SBA raised concerns about the accu...
AI summary Concerns were raised about the accuracy of EV and space heating forecasts, the incorporation of SGNS project data, and the adequacy of demand response (DR) capacity. EOne recommended updating heat pump models and exploring electrification scenarios with electric thermal storage (ETS). Mr. Wilson requested NS Power to complete a line loss determination model and report progress quarterly.
n process, as well as a scenario analysis for ETS to moderate peak load. It will monitor growth in heating load for commercial customers and work with EOne on possible firm peak mitigation strategies. NS Power confirmed that the model used...
AI summary NS Power discusses heat pump efficiency (COP 2.3 at -15°C), DSM allocation (15% industrial, 85% commercial), and DR strategies. It rejects intervenors' requests for line loss modeling, ELCC for LIIR, and commercial electrification analysis. The IRP Action Plan includes lock-out temperature analysis removal.
he elasticity used in the SAE model to exclude elasticities calculated from non- winter peaking utilities or to apply elasticities from Canadian studies of Canadian electric utilities; - Evaluate the input variables in the residential mode...
AI summary The document outlines requests to refine modeling approaches for residential demand forecasting, including re-evaluating housing data, income metrics, and EV adoption rates. It emphasizes improving model accuracy through updated inputs, aligning with Statistics Canada data, and addressing infrastructure communication gaps.
ect to the unresolved status of large infrastructure projects, NS Power is encouraged to maintain communications with those customers to ensure system adequacy. Yours very truly, Richard J. Melanson LL.B. Member Julia E. Clark, LL.B. Membe...
AI summary NS Power is urged to maintain customer communication regarding unresolved large infrastructure projects to ensure system adequacy. The letter is signed by Richard J. Melanson and Julia E. Clark, with a copy to Board Counsel S. Bruce Outhouse and interested parties. URLs for EV registration and rebate data are included, along with document number 298717.