N-12025 Load Forecast Report + Appendices - Redacted
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8 0.0 2,573 1.5 2034F 11,236 0.6 2,618 1.8 2035F 11,365 1.1 2,672 2.0 2 3 DATE: June 27, 2025 Page 10 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted
AI summary The document is a redacted 2025 Load Forecast Report, part of a regulatory proceeding. It includes forecasted load data for years 2034F and 2035F, though specific values are obscured. The report's context relates to energy planning and infrastructure requirements.
27 of time, if alternative inputs make the residential model more robust, 28 considering the following: 29 • given the Provincial Government’s population growth targets, 30 changes to building permitting and funding such as the Housing 1 N...
AI summary The document references the NSUARB Hearing Order and a 2024 Load Forecast Report, considering population growth targets and housing policy changes to improve residential energy modeling. It cites regulatory decisions and reports related to load forecasting and infrastructure planning.
MOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted 1 Figure 14: Yearly Change in Residential Customers 2 3 4 NS Power will continue to monitor any government initiatives that may increase housing supply. 5 In a January 2025 update, 10 the Halifax R...
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report discusses residential customer growth and housing initiatives, including the Halifax Regional Municipality’s Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF), which aims to increase housing development by 2,600 units over three years. The report also mentions the use of population and customer count data to estimate household size in the SAE model.
Page 28 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report has been redacted, with confidential information removed. The document provides an analysis of expected electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2025.
30 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted
AI summary The document is a redacted version of the 2025 Load Forecast Report, which contains confidential information. It outlines projections and analysis related to future electricity demand in Nova Scotia.
1 the demand response and efficiency programming incorporated in the Base DSM scenario, is the 2 scenario studied in the Evergreen IRP which most closely matches this objective.” 16 The forecast 3 continues to assume 100 percent heat pump...
AI summary The text discusses NS Power's involvement in assessing demand response and efficiency programming, particularly within the Base DSM scenario and the hybrid peak scenario. NS Power is collaborating with stakeholders and organizations like NRR and E1 to evaluate the cost impacts of the hybrid approach as part of the Clean Power Plan and Load Management initiative.
Page 35 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted
AI summary This document is a redacted page from the 2025 Load Forecast Report, which contains confidential information that has been removed. The report likely outlines projections and analysis related to electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2025.
in this class decrease 0.2 percent annually. Historical and forecast annual residential 8 sector loads are shown in Figure 43. 9 10 Figure 43: Historical and Forecast Annual Residential Sales 11 12 13 The forecast for new construction in 2...
AI summary This text discusses forecasted residential sector load growth, noting a 0.2% annual decrease in this class. It also highlights discrepancies between forecasted and actual customer growth, and provides context on population growth and housing projections in Nova Scotia through 2035.
Page 58 of 94 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2025 Load Forecast Report Redacted
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of expected electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2025. It includes projections and considerations related to load forecasting, which are essential for planning and managing the electricity grid.
1 This analysis provides a potential range of outcomes for the 2025 Load Forecast. Energy is most 2 sensitive to economics over the long term, while peak is most sensitive to temperature. In addition, 3 peak is more variable overall. The i...
AI summary The document discusses the 2025 Load Forecast and compares it with the 2024 Load Forecast and the Evergreen IRP cases. It highlights the sensitivity of energy to economics and peak load to temperature, while noting that the Evergreen IRP scenarios assume a slower adoption of EVs and heat pumps, with lower RTR market load estimates compared to the current forecast.
11,607 2,267 11,365 2,503 Evergreen IRP E1 – Current Policy 11,258 2,074 11,919 2,531 and Trends Evergreen IRP E2 – Hybrid Peak 11,213 2,001 11,809 2,423 Mitigation Evergreen IRP E3 – Accelerated 11,258 2,074 12,711 2,950 Electrification 2...
AI summary The text presents a table with forecast values for energy requirements in 2025, including different Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios such as Evergreen IRP E1, E2, and E3. The table includes numerical data that may be related to energy forecasts and planning.
N-7NSPI (Synapse) RIR 1 to 29 - Redacted
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2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests CONFIDENTIAL (Attachment Only)
AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) includes NSPI's responses to Synapse's information requests, marked as confidential and attached.
ailable for inclusion in the 2026 Load Forecast. However, NS Power 27 expects the results of the study will be available for inclusion in either the 2026 or 2027 28 Load Forecast. Date Filed: August 19, 2025 NSPI (Synapse) IR-13 Page 1 of...
AI summary The document discusses the need to update the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) study, focusing on the interactive effects of clean resources such as wind, solar, battery energy storage, and demand response. This was highlighted in a Board decision and supported by NS Power in its 10 Year System Outlook.
nd, solar, battery energy storage, and demand response). Subsequently the Board asked for an update on NS Power’s progress on this recommendation in NSUARB IR-02 (M11764). NS Power’s response stated: NS Power has not started a new capacity...
AI summary The NSEB requested an update on NS Power’s progress on a recommendation from NSUARB IR-02 (M11764). NS Power has not initiated a new capacity value study but plans to update the existing one prior to the next IRP analysis, focusing on the interactive effects of clean resources like wind, solar, battery storage, and demand response. A draft scope of work will be circulated for stakeholder input.
2025 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12349) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-28: 2 3 Demand Side Management (Section 4.5.1, pp 53-55). 4 5 (a) Please provide the source data for the DSM values used i...
AI summary NSPI responds to Synapse's information requests regarding the 2025 Load Forecast Report, specifically addressing the source data and methodology for Demand Side Management (DSM) values used in the forecast and in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
N-8Evidence - Synapse
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Scotia Power’s 2025 Load Forecast 1 Figure 1. Net system requirements Source: Synapse, from Figure 3 in NSPI’s 2025 Load Forecast Report (2025 Load Forecast) and responses to 2024 Synapse IR-1.
AI summary The document references Scotia Power’s 2025 Load Forecast, citing Synapse’s analysis and NSPI’s report. It includes a figure illustrating net system requirements, derived from Synapse’s work and NSPI’s 2025 Load Forecast Report, alongside responses to the 2024 Synapse IR-1.
s for each of the sectors. 2.1. Major Inputs and Regression Models In addition to changes in end-use technology, the forecast is influenced by economic, demographic, and weather-related factors. Changes in overall economic health drive the...
AI summary NSPI's forecast considers economic, demographic, and weather factors, using CBoC projections and adjusting housing completions. Electrification of heating/cooling increased residential energy use by 5.8%, while new customers added 7.6%. Regression models are deemed acceptable, though alternative models could be explored.
modeled peak resulting from these issues in the approach to assessing water heater and heat pump energy and peak effects, since NS Power uses an end-use approach to formulating its peak forecast. 57 3.3. Demand-side Management To develop i...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's approach to forecasting peak load reductions from demand-side management (DSM) programs, including the use of an effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of 48% and the adjustment of DSM targets from 2025 to 2028. It also references the Board's directive to update the Capacity Value Study for demand response and the potential challenges in incorporating the next ELCC study into the 2026 Load Forecast.
2035). NSPI is continuing to evaluate the potential impacts of the proposed hydrogen facilities and should continue to also assess the plausibility of all the listed scenarios and their combinations. As we did last year, we note that NSPI’...
AI summary The document highlights the need for NSPI to evaluate a range of future scenarios, particularly for heat pumps, EVs, DSM, and demand response, due to uncertainties in their adoption rates. It recommends developing low and high case scenarios in addition to the reference case for more accurate load forecasting.
N-9Rebuttal Evidence - NSPI
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Page 3 of 17 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence Non-Confidential 1 We support NSPI’s ongoing efforts to improve the transparency and accuracy of 2 the load forecast. There is still more to do, but overall, NS Power’s Report is very 3...
AI summary The intervenors support NSPI’s efforts to improve load forecast transparency and accuracy, acknowledging the report’s thoroughness. NS Power has addressed many recommendations but cites resource constraints for some, noting AMI data integration will require long-term model adjustments.
Page 12 of 17 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence Non-Confidential
AI summary This document is page 12 of a 17-page non-confidential submission titled '2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence,' indicating it is part of a regulatory proceeding related to load forecasting for the year 2025.
1 data provided by the LRS, the Consumer Advocate would request that NS Power 2 be directed to conduct its own independent analysis and provide an update to the 3 Board through a compliance filing, or alternatively, at the Board’s directio...
AI summary The Consumer Advocate requests NS Power to conduct an independent analysis and update the Board on load forecasting. The Small Business Advocate (SBA) criticizes the proposed 2% electricity price increase as arbitrary and urges NS Power to consider additional factors. NS Power responds that rate modeling is outside the load forecast's scope and that their assumptions are based on a robust internal forecast, with uncertainties increasing beyond 2029.
1 NS Power Response: 2 3 SNS/ESC elaborated on their expectations of a DER Potential Assessment, providing the 4 following: 5 6 It is an object of the NSIESO to “[p]rior to, or as part of, conducting an integrated 7 resource planning exerc...
AI summary NS Power emphasizes the need for a DER Potential Assessment to inform the 2026 Load Forecast Report and NSIESO planning. The assessment aims to evaluate DER growth potential, grid compatibility, and cost-effective demand-side management under the Public Utilities Act, prioritizing grid constraint alleviation.
at is probable. NS Power believes the data and the 25 assumptions used in the Load Forecast are reasonable for the purpose of the Load Forecast. With 26 respect to “identifying where the deployment of DERs could bring most value”, the Comp...
AI summary NS Power asserts that the Load Forecast's data and assumptions are reasonable, arguing that assessing DERs' value lies outside its scope. The text suggests a DER Potential Assessment should inform the upcoming IRP by IESO-NS, which plans to develop its first IRP for Nova Scotia, sharing its approach early in 2026.
Page 15 of 17 2025 Load Forecast Report Reply Evidence Non-Confidential 1 into IRP assumptions, scenarios and modelling.” The corresponding press release noted that “[t]o 2 help inform the work of developing the new IRP, IESO Nova Scotia h...
AI summary The document discusses the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, emphasizing stakeholder feedback and best practices for DER Potential Assessments. It addresses a recommendation to avoid revising electrification load growth downward without evidence, with NS Power citing annual evaluations, policy updates (e.g., EV incentive changes), and holistic forecasting methods.
98689NSEB (NSPI) IR 1 to 24 - Redacted
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Document: 322941 Date Filed: 07/24/25 Page 1 1 Request IR-1: 2 Figures 1, 2 & 3 in the application present graphs and a table with historic and forecasted Net 3 System Requirement (NSR) and System Peak. 4 a) In the 2024 Load Forecast, M116...
AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board requests clarification on NS Power's 2024 Load Forecast discrepancies, AMI data usage, HDD model adjustments, and housing completions. Questions focus on forecasting accuracy, data sufficiency, model parameters, and housing impacts on energy demand.
Document: 322941 Date Filed: 07/24/25 Page 4 1 Understanding that some of the new housing units will replace existing housing and some new 2 units may be used for tourism, there appears to be a divergence between the population growth 3 ex...
AI summary The text includes requests for clarification on NS Power's load forecasting assumptions, including building efficiency forecasts, industrial load migration discrepancies, municipal load service arrangements, and a reference to the Atlantic Economic Council (AEC). Questions focus on data calibration timelines, load migration projections, and third-party service confirmations.
Document: 322941 Date Filed: 07/24/25 Page 5 1 a) The AEC report notes that investment in housing is up 17% and identifies growth nodes 2 in the Halifax Regional Municipality that will be developed over the Load Forecast period. 3 Does NS...
AI summary The text includes questions from intervenors to NS Power regarding capacity to address demand increases in Halifax, consideration of infrastructure projects in load forecasts, updates from industrial customers, and the methodology for using 'achievable potential' in peak demand estimates. It also references the Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and requests data comparisons for demand response programs.
100378Board Decision Letter
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a 2% annual increase from 2030 onwards as arbitrary. The SBA recommended NS Power incorporate measured factors to project long term sales, including load growth, generator mix, transmission upgrades. The SBA had concerns with NS Power’s ap...
AI summary The SBA criticized NS Power's 2% annual sales growth assumption as arbitrary and urged data-driven forecasting. ESC and SNS advocated for DER potential assessments and lower battery storage costs. Synapse praised NS Power's report but suggested improvements. Concerns included transparency in input adjustments and alignment with provincial policy goals.
for demand response. • Evaluate additional demand response programs, with a greater level of peak loads. 11. Assess the probability of “other possible scenarios” in Figure D8 and consider additional analyses aimed at mitigating projected p...
AI summary The text outlines recommendations to evaluate demand response programs, assess peak load scenarios, and develop high/low-case projections for uncertain resources like heat pumps and EVs. NS Power partially agrees with intervenors' recommendations but cites time/resource constraints, noting that managed charging strategies fall under rate design rather than load forecasting. The RtR forecast relies on Licensed Retail Supplier expectations.
mendation #8, NS Power explained that the RtR forecast is based on the expectations developed by the Licensed Retail Supplier and is the best available information to be included in the Load Forecast. In response to Synapse’s recommendatio...
AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding load forecasting, integrated resource planning, and rate assumptions. It defends including municipal utilities' full load, using internal forecasts for rate projections, and disagrees with recommendations on DER deployment and EV forecasts, citing data alignment and annual evaluation practices.