Topic:"Infrastructure Planning" in M12861

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides projections for electricity demand in Nova Scotia, informing grid planning and resource allocation. Key themes include forecasting methodologies and infrastructure planning to meet future energy needs.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides projections for electricity demand in Nova Scotia, informing grid planning and resource allocation. Key themes include forecasting methodologies and infrastructure planning to meet future energy needs.

.............................................................. 97 30 Figure 72: Commercial End-Use Peak Shares .............................................................................. 97 31 Figure 73: Comparison of bottom-up and top-...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report includes figures analyzing energy demand patterns, peak load forecasts, and system sensitivity. Attachments detail residential and commercial intensity models, demand forecasting methodologies, and peak load inputs, supporting the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios discussed in Figure 77.

1 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 3 In accordance with the Nova Scotia Wholesale Electricity and Renewable to Retail Market Rules, 4 Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power, the Company) is required to provide the Nova Scotia 5 Energy Board (NSEB,...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) is required to submit annual 10-year energy and demand forecasts to the Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB). The Independent Electrical System Operator Nova Scotia (IESO-NS), established under the Energy Reform (2024) Act, will oversee electricity demand forecasting. The 2026 Load Forecast considers factors like weather, economic indicators, and energy efficiency programs, acknowledging inherent uncertainties.

M) and Renewable to Retail (RTR) migration offsetting sales. 14 Annual historic and forecast NSR are shown below in Figure 1. 15 16 Figure 1: Historical and Predicted Annual Net System Requirement Net System Requirement 15,000 14,000 13,00...

AI summary NS Power forecasts increasing system peak demand from 2026 to 2036, driven by customer growth, electrification, and EV adoption, offset by DSM and DR programs. The 2026 forecast adjusts for a record peak in January 2026, with the 2025-2026 forecast difference narrowing by 2036.

Page 13 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The document is a redacted 2026 Load Forecast Report, which likely outlines projected electricity demand for Nova Scotia. The content is confidential and not fully visible in the provided text.

1 • The economic data used in the medium industrial class, including evaluation of 2 manufacturing employment, has been updated. Please refer to Section 4.4. 3 • The impacts of hybrid heat pumps have been modelled and included in the under...

AI summary Updates to the 2026 Load Forecast include revised economic data, hybrid heat pump modeling, and solar installation updates. NS Power engaged stakeholders, discussing changes like heat pump impacts, EV demand, and renewable-to-retail effects, with references to technical sections.

age 30 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses projections for electricity demand in Nova Scotia, providing insights into future load requirements and potential impacts on the energy system.

Page 31 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of anticipated electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2026. Key factors influencing the forecast include energy usage patterns, infrastructure planning, and the impact of energy efficiency programs on load growth.

(CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 20: Industrial Economic Drivers

AI summary The document presents a redacted section of the 2026 Load Forecast Report, focusing on industrial economic drivers. Key details are omitted due to confidentiality, but the section likely discusses factors influencing industrial electricity demand in Nova Scotia.

4 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of projected electricity demand for the year 2026, including key factors influencing load growth and potential impacts on the electricity system.

of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of future electricity demand in Nova Scotia. It includes projections based on various factors such as population growth, economic development, and energy efficiency initiatives. The report is part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process and informs decision-making for energy infrastructure planning.

0 56 44 71 3,232 87 283 2036 170,636 55 45 73 3,317 89 290 2 3 4.5.2 Hybrid Heating 4 Residential Hybrid Heating 5 6 Residential hybrid heating assumptions have been updated for the 2026 Load Forecast, consistent 7 with the Board’s 2025 Lo...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report updates residential hybrid heating assumptions, aligning with the 2025 Load Forecast Decision. The report includes a regression model that incorporates potential energy and peak reductions from hybrid programs, modeled by NS Power and used by a Department of Energy-led working group with Net Zero Atlantic and other stakeholders.

Page 42 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of future electricity demand in Nova Scotia. The report includes projections based on various factors such as population growth, economic development, and energy efficiency initiatives. It is a critical document for planning and regulatory decision-making.

Page 67 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report provides an analysis of expected electricity demand in Nova Scotia for the year 2026. The report includes projections based on various factors such as population growth, economic development, and energy efficiency initiatives.

1 contribution to peak is expected to be partially mitigated via utility managed charging. The firm 2 peak assuming the current non-coincident residential EV peak value of 0.5kW/vehicle and that 3 commercial charging does not include peak...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of electric vehicle (EV) charging and hybrid heating on peak demand, noting that utility-managed charging and DR programs are expected to mitigate some of the growth in peak demand. It also references the 2026 Load Forecast and the inclusion of DR programs from the 2022 Evergreen IRP, with future DR amounts based on achievable potential.

was used in the 2022 Evergreen IRP. NS Power's IRP Action Plan 23 targeted 75 MW of capacity for DR deployment by 2025, but this estimate has been moved back 24 to 2033 in the Load Forecast to align with the current program development and...

AI summary The 2022 Evergreen IRP initially targeted 75 MW of demand response (DR) capacity by 2025, but this has been revised to 2033 due to program development timelines and expected ramp-up of E1’s DR portfolio and CPP. The forecast does not include specific peak mitigation for home EV charging, as it is based on actual behavior.

6 71 34 2033 38 30 6 74 36 2034 38 32 6 76 37 2035 38 33 6 77 37 2036 38 34 6 78 37 13 14 A pilot project was completed in 2021 and 2022 in conjunction with E1 to investigate direct load 15 control through water heater controls. 201 water...

AI summary A pilot project involving 201 water heater controllers was conducted in 2021 and 2022 in collaboration with E1 to explore direct load control. The project aimed to demonstrate the benefits of utility-managed load shift events. A reference is made to the 2023 Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan and a 2026 Load Forecast Report, both related to capacity and load studies.

structural 11 factors appear to contribute to the higher growth exhibited under the bottom‑up methodology. 12 13 Figure 73: Comparison of bottom-up and top-down system peak forecasts 14 15 46 M12349, NS Power 2025 Load Forecast Report, Jun...

AI summary The bottom-up load forecasting method assumes a direct correlation between peak growth and energy sales, but this relationship is weak (R2 = 0.318) due to factors like weather variations and the timing of peak demand.

Figure 76 shows the peak forecast, which includes the latest adjustments (wind, 12-hour and 24- 2 hour temperature averages) to the peak end-use model. 3 4 Figure 76: System Peak Sensitivity 5 6 7 This analysis provides a potential range o...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 Load Forecast and its comparison with the Evergreen IRP cases, highlighting sensitivity to temperature and economics. It notes the lower estimate for load served through the RTR market in the 2022 Load Forecast and the slow ramp-up of EV and heat pump uptake to meet net zero emissions by 2050.

Page 104 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 be more policy and regulation changes related to decarbonization targets in the course of the 10- 2 year timeframe of this forecast, but the s...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses potential policy and regulatory changes related to decarbonization targets over a 10-year timeframe. It outlines various scenarios, including current policy trends, hybrid peak mitigation, and accelerated electrification, with corresponding energy and peak load forecasts for 2026 and 2036.

4 +/-176 +/-292 +/-196 Price Elasticity of -0.3 (2x -18 -6 -88 -26 current elasticity of -0.15) At this time, any potential impacts of the proposed hydrogen facilities on the NS Power’s Net System Requirement and System Peak are still bein...

AI summary The document outlines the preliminary 2026 Load Forecast, highlighting changes from the 2025 forecast, preliminary results by rate class, and updates to the system and peak forecast models. It also mentions the evaluation of potential impacts from proposed hydrogen facilities on NS Power’s Net System Requirement and System Peak.

41.5 41.4 50 Commercial Total 486.9 564.6 544.9 419.1 362.0 429.0 428.8 380.9 403.3 450.8 443.6 482.7 565 Small Industrial 31.1 40.9 37.2 30.4 34.7 35.6 35.0 29.7 26.9 36.2 30.6 36.4 41 Medium Industrial 52.0 53.8 56.9 49.6 38.1 64.8 63.2...

AI summary The text presents a table with numerical data across various categories such as Commercial Total, Industrial segments, and System Peak. It reflects energy usage statistics over different time periods, likely related to energy consumption and capacity planning in Nova Scotia.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL Step Description Amount Reference A Projected reduction in system peak associated with TVP rates in 2036 34 MW 2026 Load Forecast Figure 69 В Winter 2024/25 Domestic TOU participants 5,761 participants 2023/2024 TVP EM&V С...

AI summary The document outlines key metrics from the Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) pilot, including participant numbers, load reductions, and calculations for achieving peak reduction targets. The pilot is reviewed and evaluated in a structured manner, with stakeholder engagement and alignment with the Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan. The Year Four Evaluation Report was filed in 2026, and further evaluations are planned.

participation assumptions. 1 Request IR-5: 2 3 In the 2025 Load Forecast Report M12349, Board IR-22(b) noted that the IRP had 4 underestimated the 2024 and 2025 energy demand between 165 and 364 GWh for NSR and 5 between 217 and 209 GWh fo...

AI summary The 2025 Load Forecast Report (M12349) indicated that the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) underestimated energy demand for 2024 and 2025. NS Power responds that the 2026 load forecast and IRP reference case are aligned, noting small differences in forecasted values for 2036 firm peak and net system requirement (NSR).

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 12 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Cust Count Change in Res Customers Population Change in Population Housing Completions Starts Household Size Year...

AI summary The text provides a table with data on customer count, population, housing completions, and household size from 2019 to 2026. It includes forecasted figures and actual additions, showing trends and percentages of change over time.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 187 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Bottom-up Model System Peak Current System Peak Model (top-down) 2026 2,410 2,484 2027 2,438 2,497 2028 2,470 2,5...

AI summary The table compares the bottom-up model system peak and the current system peak model (top-down) for years 2026 to 2036, showing increasing system peak loads with slightly higher growth rates in the bottom-up model compared to the top-down model.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 189 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Item 2026 NSR Energy (GWh) 2026 Firm Peak (MW) 2036 NSR Energy (GWh) 2036 Firm Peak (MW) 2025 Load Forecast 11,403 2,2...

AI summary The text presents load forecast data for Nova Scotia, including energy consumption (GWh) and firm peak demand (MW) for 2026 and 2036 under various scenarios. It also includes historical load data from 2016 to 2021, detailing interruptible contributions, demand response reductions, and temperature conditions during peak load periods.

2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Inc. Information Requests 1 Request IR-5: 4 magnitude estimates of potential impacts under various adoption scenarios. Without a 5 credible baseline adoptio...

AI summary NS Power confirms that the 2026 Load Forecast does not include assumptions about V2G, V2H, or V2B technologies due to their early commercialization stage and lack of infrastructure in Nova Scotia. The report acknowledges the need for credible baseline adoption forecasts to quantify potential impacts.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (d) The P10/P90 probability analysis is not currently being used in decision making regarding 2 system planning. Date Filed: July 7, 2026 NSPI (Synapse) IR-19 Page 2 of 2

AI summary The P10/P90 probability analysis is not currently being used in decision making regarding system planning.

II. Introduction and Summary - Q: Please summarize the topics you will address in your review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report. - A: My evidence reviews several technical or program-based adjustments to the base load forecast that I find d...

AI summary The review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report identifies several issues with technical and program-based adjustments, particularly the residential heating intensity forecast and forecasts for demand reduction programs. The reviewer recommends immediate corrections and improvements to forecasting practices, including revising forecast workbooks, rejecting the current hybrid heating forecast, and adjusting DLC, TVP, and BNI curtailment forecasts.

- "Cleaner Energy for Southern Company: Finding a Low Cost Path to Clean Power Plan Compliance," Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, July 2015. - "Analysis of Solar Capacity Equivalent Values for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progr...

AI summary The text lists various reports and analyses related to energy efficiency, renewable energy, and electricity demand in the southeastern United States and Nova Scotia. Reports are authored by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and other organizations, with some specifically addressing Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan.

- "An Advocates Perspective on the Duke Save-a-Watt Approach," ACEEE 5th National Conference on Energy Efficiency as a Resource, September 2009. - "Building the Energy Efficiency Resource for the TVA Region," presentation on behalf of Sout...

AI summary The document lists a series of presentations and testimonies on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and regulatory topics, focusing on the Southeastern United States and related regions. These include discussions on energy policy, integrated resource planning, and the implementation of regulations such as the Clean Power Plan.

EXPERT TESTIMONY - 2008 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2007-358-E, surrebuttal testimony on behalf of Environmental Defense, the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and the Southern Environmental L...

AI summary The text outlines expert testimony from various regulatory proceedings across multiple states, focusing on energy efficiency cost recovery mechanisms, integrated resource plans, and the adequacy of energy efficiency considerations by utility companies. Key entities involved include environmental organizations and the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

2. BOARD DIRECTIVES AND PRIOR SYNAPSE RECOMMENDATIONS In its Decision concerning NS Power's 2025 forecast, in Matter 12349, dated December 19, 2025, the Board issued several directives to NS Power for its 2026 forecast. In this Decision, t...

AI summary The Board issued directives to NS Power regarding its 2026 forecast, including implementing prior recommendations and monitoring various factors such as housing completions, forecast variances, and government policies on electrification. The Board also encouraged continued monitoring of battery storage price trends and noted some intervenor suggestions for future planning.

NS Power Response: At the time the hybrid heating assumptions were developed, NS Power relied on the best information reasonably available, including an analysis of AMI data for over 20,000 electrically heated NS Power customers and a stud...

AI summary NS Power explains that its hybrid heating assumptions were based on available AMI data and heat pump load studies. It acknowledges E1's DSM Potential Study and expects to use its findings in future load forecasts. NS Power argues against presenting specific hybrid heating participation scenarios, citing complexity and lack of clear benefit.

a have been in discussion on the preparation and filing of the Load Forecast and 10YSO reports in the near term, given their impending submissions on May 15th and June 30th of this year, respectively. With respect to the Load Forecast repo...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia and NS Power are collaborating on Load Forecast and 10YSO report submissions, with NS Power handling the Load Forecast for 2026 and IESO taking over the 10YSO report to avoid duplication. Submissions are due May 15 and June 30, respectively, with IESO seeking NSEB input.

M12861 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD IN THE MATTER OF: The PUBLIC UTILITIES ACT -and- IN THE MATTER OF: NOVA SCOTIA POWER INCORPORTED’s 2026 Load Forecast Report NOTICE OF INTERVENTION OF: CONSUMER ADVOCATE TAKE NOTICE that the Consumer Advocat...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate intervenes in Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s 2026 Load Forecast Report proceeding under the Public Utilities Act, representing residential ratepayers. The Advocate will address Energy Board issues and other emerging concerns during the process.

2026 M12861 NOVA SCOTIA ENERGY BOARD IN THE MATTER OF: the Public Utilities Act, RSNS 1989, c 380 as amended -and- IN THE MATTER OF: Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2026 Load Forecast Report NOTICE OF INTERVENTION OF: HIS MAJESTY THE KING...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Department of Energy intervenes in a proceeding under the Public Utilities Act regarding Nova Scotia Power's 2026 Load Forecast Report. The Department asserts authority over energy matters and requests communication with specified contacts. The matter is numbered M12861 and dated June 1, 2026.

Request IR-1: - Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Net System Requirement and System Peak. - a) The Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast percentage change in 2027 is negative. Aside from Renewable to Retail sales, what are the factors that a...

AI summary The document contains several requests for clarification regarding forecasts related to Net System Requirement (NSR) and system peak, as well as employment data sources and discrepancies in manufacturing GDP figures. Questions focus on the factors influencing NSR trends, the accuracy of system peak forecasts, and the rationale for using broader age groups in employment data analysis.

40 Request IR-6: 42 Reference: Section 4.8. NS Power states that its peak forecast is unaffected by the RtR load 43 forecast. With respect to energy, NS Power is responsible for supplying top-up energy above 44 and beyond the 500 GWh of wi...

AI summary NS Power asserts its peak forecast is unaffected by the RtR load forecast, but must supply top-up energy beyond 500 GWh of wind production by 2028. The request asks whether a 20% variance in RtR load forecasts would impact NS Power's planning, investments, or operations, emphasizing resource requirements and generation planning.