Topic:"Integrated Resource Plan" in M08059

on stakeholder comments was to include additional rounds for stakeholder responses to the input assumptions and to the initial modeling results. Appendix 5.1 contains the final Terms of Reference. 10 Lingan 1, 3 and 4; Point Aconi; Point T...

AI summary The Generation Optimization and Utilization study by Synapse Energy Economics for NSPI examines the economic implications of relying on aging thermal generation assets amid provincial emission regulations. The study was commissioned by the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board to assess resource utilization strategies.

ission constraints for selected changes to CT and CC costs and availability. They also enabled us to test the effect of selected forced retirements of one Tufts Cove unit and one of the Trenton units. Scenarios An initial set of 30 scenari...

AI summary The analysis explores modeling scenarios for NSPI's thermal generation, including forced retirements of units, sensitivity to battery costs, gas prices, and updated technology costs. It evaluates impacts of relaxing Plexos steam and transmission constraints on build, retirement, and dispatch responses.

tions. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 11 Final Report Table 2. Modeling Sensitivities

AI summary The document references Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.'s final report on NSPI's thermal generation utilization and optimization (M08059), including a table analyzing modeling sensitivities. The proceeding likely evaluates NSPI's strategies for optimizing thermal generation resources.

NSPI Thermal Generation Utilization and Optimization M08059 12 Final Report Load Table 3 below lists the projected peak load and annual energy levels for Nova Scotia. The firm peak represents the load level for resource planning—interrupti...

AI summary The document outlines NSPI's projected peak load and annual energy levels for Nova Scotia, emphasizing DSM's role in reducing both peak and energy requirements. Reference scenarios use NSPI’s 2017 Load Forecast, while medium DSM levels assume increased Efficiency One spending, leading to roughly doubled peak load reductions after an initial ramping period.

The modeling plan includes scenarios with three different “net” load levels. Peak shaving and increased energy efficiency resources in Nova Scotia are critical resources that cannot be as well-represented in PLEXOS as the supply-side alter...

AI summary The modeling plan uses three load scenarios (reference, mid DSM, high DSM) to evaluate demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency. It highlights challenges in representing demand-side resources in PLEXOS, opting instead for a scenario approach focused on NSPI system load. Mid DSM targets 2.0%/year energy efficiency savings, while high DSM adds peak shaving via demand response and AMI. Costs are handled separately, outside PLEXOS.

Appendix 5.6 REDACTED CONFIDENTIAL Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN, RACHEL WILSON, DAVID WHITE – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: OCTOBER 16, 2017 RE: KEY INPUT ASSUMPTIONS AND MODEL...

AI summary This memo outlines Synapse Energy Economics' modeling plan for the Generation Utilization and Optimization study, seeking stakeholder input on assumptions related to energy storage, wind/solar costs, and demand-side management (DSM) scenarios. The analysis compares long-term costs of retaining NSPI’s thermal fleet versus alternative resource mixes, though it explicitly states it is not an integrated resource plan (IRP).

Comments in Response to NSPI 4/13/2017 Technical Conference on Future Plan for Thermal Resources Synapse Energy Economics April 28, 2017 Introduction These comments are provided in response to the technical conference held at NSPI on April...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics comments on NSPI's plan to continue operating thermal steam units through 2030, except Lingan 2 (retiring in 2020). Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) will not retire in 2025 due to projected peak load increases, requiring additional sustaining capital expenditures beyond 2024.

s/Public%20List.aspx NPCC CP-8 Working Group 47 Approved by the RCC - December 6, 2016 NPCC 2016 LONG RANGE ADEQUACY OVERVIEW

AI summary The NPCC CP-8 Working Group's 2016 Long Range Adequacy Overview was approved by the RCC on December 6, 2016. The document outlines planning and resource adequacy considerations for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

1 April 28, 2017 VIA EMAIL 28096 Ms. Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Dear Ms. Friis: Re: M07540 – Nova Scotia Power Inc. 2016 10-Year...

AI summary The Consumer Advocate requests a study on whether Nova Scotia Power Inc. should maintain its thermal coal units, citing incomplete Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) data and advocating Synapse's involvement. The letter highlights concerns over unspent maintenance funds and the potential value of Plexos data for planning.

as a significant difference of opinion between NSP! and the Board Staff consultants, Liberty and Synapse, on the issue of the approach to determining the future use of NSPI’s thermal generation fleet. In essence, NSPI's position appears to...

AI summary NSPI and Board consultants (Liberty, Synapse) disagree on analyzing NSPI’s thermal fleet future. NSPI argues delaying analysis due to unresolved issues (cap-and-trade, interprovincial transmission) is prudent. Consultants advocate immediate rigorous analysis. PHP supports NSPI’s goal of least-cost long-term solutions. Tufts Cove Unit 3 issues remain unresolved.

File No: SM002557-00003 Nancy G. Rubin, Q.C. Direct Dial: 902.420-3337 [email protected] April 27, 2017 Delivered by E-mail Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 3rd Floor 1601 Lower Wa...

AI summary NSPI responds to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board's concerns regarding its 10-Year System Outlook Report, noting increased peak demand despite declining energy sales. It explains that variable renewable integration has altered steam unit utilization, requiring low-capacity thermal units to meet capacity needs and maintain reserve margins.

ed to serve firm peak demand and maintain the system’s planning reserve margin.2 (emphasis added) 1 NSPI 10-year System Outlook Report, p.18 2 NSPI 10-year System Outlook Report, p. 25 3090853 v1 Doreen Friis April 27, 2017 Page 2 In other...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's capacity factors for power plants, discrepancies in data provided, and planning challenges due to federal policies like carbon pricing. It highlights the need for accurate information and flexibility in planning amid regulatory uncertainty.

n the thermal units appropriate? e) What are the operating realities with respect to renewable sources of generation, what options are there to address these, and what are the costs of those options? These questions have been under review...

AI summary The text raises questions about renewable generation's operating realities, addressing options and their costs, referencing reviews since the 2014 IRP. It proposes two options: updating the IRP or collaborating with Synapse. Factors like the Maritime Link delay, DSM developments, and tech advancements in renewables/storage are highlighted as reasons for potential IRP updates.

5 Appendix – Synapse Comments After April 2017 Technical Conference Introduction These comments are provided in response to the technical conference held at NSPI on April 13, 2017. They address a number of issues concerning the future plan...

AI summary NSPI plans to operate all thermal steam units except Lingan 2 through 2025/26, expecting continued operation through 2030. This contrasts with the 2014 IRP Action Plan, as Tufts Cove 1 (TUC1) will remain operational past 2025 due to 2016 load forecasts requiring resource adequacy. Sustaining capital expenditures for TUC1 are only planned through 2024, raising concerns about future costs.

e 1 (response to NS UARB IR-6, Attachment 1, page 2) show planned expenditures only through 2024. If TUC1 is not retired in 2025, it is reasonable to expect additional sustaining capital requirements. Sustaining capital investment in the t...

AI summary The text discusses NSPI's sustaining capital projections for its thermal fleet (2017-2026), noting significant uncertainty due to lack of sensitivity analysis and reliance on outdated data. Specific large capital injections for plants like Lingan 3 and Trenton 6 are highlighted, while the 2014 IRP's levelized approach is critiqued for not addressing year-specific sustaining capital needs.

25 $ 8,912,500 TUC3 $ 824,375 $ 793,125 $ 3,280,625 $ 868,125 $ 1,255,625 $ 524,375 $ 768,125 $ 543,125 $ 868,125 $ 505,625 $ 10,231,250 TUC6 $ 1,822,500 $ 1,997,500 $ 4,847,500 $ 2,297,500 $ 4,747,500 $ 1,822,500 $ 2,197,500 $ 1,897,500 $...

AI summary The text presents financial figures related to capital investments and discusses how the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan influences Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) thermal fleet economics by affecting peak demand and capacity contributions from alternative resources.

opportunities. 7. Obtain DSM resource commitments consistent with the IRP analysis. 8. Evaluate options for Mersey Development, and the potential to add 30 MW of capacity to the system. In addition to these IRP action items, continuing red...

AI summary The document outlines IRP action items, including DSM resource commitments and evaluating Mersey Development's 30 MW capacity potential. It criticizes NSPI for not rigorously analyzing the economic optimality of retaining seven coal units beyond 2030, citing gaps in their 2014 IRP analysis regarding capital expenditures and renewable energy cost impacts.

stated at the 4/13/2017 technical conference, is not well-supported. It is not at all clear that lengthy retention of the coal units was the most economic option arising from the 2014 IRP analysis. 5 5 A truer optimization, given the model...

AI summary The text critiques the 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for inadequately evaluating alternatives to retaining coal units, emphasizing the need for iterative analysis to compare resource plans. It highlights demand-side management (DSM) and alternative capacity options (e.g., wind, storage, demand response) as more economical solutions and recommends additional system studies.

e for NSPI customers. A portfolio of alternatives, rather than a single substitution of new capacity for coal plants, 15 is likely the lowest cost among competing alternatives to coal plant retention. We suggest a rigorous analytical appro...

AI summary The text advocates for a portfolio approach to replace coal plants, emphasizing the use of PLEXOS modeling for detailed capacity expansion analysis. It stresses the need to evaluate both demand-side (e.g., energy efficiency) and supply-side alternatives, considering cost trends and greenhouse gas reduction value. Rigorous analysis of demand-side options is highlighted as critical for accurate capacity planning.

to be taken from them. The objectives and purpose have typically been stated upfront as part of the IRP TORs. In the most recent 2014 IRP for instance, the Purpose was stated in the TOR as follows: The IRP is a comprehensive and public uti...

AI summary The text discusses the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, emphasizing its non-prescriptive nature and flexibility. It highlights NS Power's recommendation for clear objectives in the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the Synapse Generation Utilization and Optimization study, a new UARB process. The 2014 IRP's purpose is outlined as a strategic roadmap for resource planning without committing the utility to specific actions.

he detailed assumptions to be used for each “reasonable alternative”?  How will ‘reasonable alternatives’ be determined and how much weight will be given to technological maturity. Considering additional balancing area constructs seems be...

AI summary NS Power argues the proposed study's scope is overly comprehensive, resembling a full IRP study, but the timeline is too short for detailed analysis. A 20-25 year timeframe (2038-2043) is traditional for IRP studies, suggesting a shorter analysis may be more appropriate. NS Power requests a detailed modelling plan for stakeholder review, citing 177,147 possible cases from 11 parameters.

ge capital injection levels (e.g., $10 million, Lingan 3, 2020; $10 million, Lingan 4, 2024; $13 million, Point Aconi, 2021; $9 million, Trenton 5, 2020; $15 million, Trenton 6, 2025). NS Power notes that the larger-than average capital in...

AI summary NS Power explains that higher capital injections for specific power plants (e.g., Lingan 3, Trenton 6) reflect major outage intervals tied to unit utilization. Synapse critiques the 2014 IRP for using a levelized approach to sustaining capital costs, ignoring year-to-year variations, and for failing to adjust surplus capacity assumptions in different plans, leading to significant disparities in outcomes.

the proposed Terms of Reference in response to those comments, and we include herein an amended Proposed Terms of Reference. In summary, to address the thrust of all comments received, Synapse will: 1) Adjust the timeline to allow addition...

AI summary Synapse revises the Terms of Reference to include additional stakeholder input, extended timelines, detailed modeling analysis plans, and scenario-based resource planning in response to feedback.

Maritimes coordination coordination M&N: Maritimes and Northeast gas availability / Nova Scotia delivery Synapse will refine the above approach, developing and documenting the sets of input assumptions to use during July and August. 3 A “c...

AI summary The document outlines Synapse's process for refining gas availability and delivery models in Nova Scotia, including steps for capacity expansion modeling. It references the 2014 'candidate resource plan' terminology and details parameters for load forecasts, resource costs, system stability, and model execution.

568,125 $ 505,625 $ 8,912,500 TUC3 $ 824,375 $ 793,125 $ 3,280,625 $ 868,125 $ 1,255,625 $ 524,375 $ 768,125 $ 543,125 $ 868,125 $ 505,625 $ 10,231,250 TUC6 $ 1,822,500 $ 1,997,500 $ 4,847,500 $ 2,297,500 $ 4,747,500 $ 1,822,500 $ 2,197,50...

AI summary The 2014 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan's eight action items influence Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) thermal fleet economics by affecting peak demand and capacity contributions from existing and new resources, impacting resource adequacy requirements and capital investment decisions.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) June 7, 2018 Doreen Friis Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor P.O. Box 1692, Unit “M” Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Re: M08059 – Generat...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) requests comments from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) and interested parties on Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s report analyzing the economic implications of retaining fossil-fueled thermal generation beyond 2030. Submissions are due by June 21, 2018, with Synapse to reply by July 9, 2018.

s Appendix B for the Board’s reference. NS Power General Comments NS Power’s comments to the Board are consistent with those provided by the Company to Synapse in its letter dated April 18, 2018. The objective of the Generation Utilization...

AI summary NS Power aligns with Synapse's 2018 study on thermal fleet retention through 2030, noting cost-effectiveness under specific conditions. The study identifies scenarios where thermal units may retire early if wind generation, DSM, and sustaining capital costs increase. Retention is indicated until 2030 in Scenario 1, with additional retirements in Scenarios 4 and 16.

Fueled Thermal Fleet To and Beyond 2030 – M08059, Synapse Energy Economics Inc. (the Synapse Report), May 1, 2018, page 1. 3 Supra, The Synapse Report, page 2. 4 The Synapse Report, page 3. Page 3 of 8 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION RE...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics Inc. concludes that retaining Nova Scotia Power's coal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective for rate-payers, though uncertainty remains about the carbon regime's impact. NS Power expects clarity on carbon policy by late 2018, enabling an Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) exercise in 2019, contingent on updated demand-side management (DSM) studies.

vide NS Power and stakeholders with an important opportunity over the next year to focus on the development of complete and accurate resource planning assumptions necessary to support the next IRP. NS Power’s comments are not to be taken b...

AI summary NS Power acknowledges the Synapse Report's value in confirming the near-term cost-effectiveness of its thermal fleet but cautions against endorsing all modeling assumptions. It advocates proceeding with the report's recommendations without additional process, emphasizing focus on next steps for the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process.

ing recommendations should be considered as next steps prior to the next Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Exercise: Synapse Recommendation NS Power Response / Position

AI summary The text references Synapse's recommendations for next steps prior to the next Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Exercise, with corresponding responses from NS Power. The discussion centers on planning processes and stakeholder input for resource planning.

1. Confirm costs and achievable potential NS Power supports this recommendation. for incremental energy efficiency. As seen, NS Power believes that a new DSM energy efficiency displaces higher cost potential study should be completed to en...

AI summary NS Power supports recommendations to evaluate energy efficiency displacement of costly energy sources, develop cost curves for demand response, assess bulk battery storage economics, and monitor thermal fleet capital costs. The IRP must incorporate these analyses through transparent UARB processes.

respecting these issues. Conclusion The Synapse Report confirms that it is cost-effective to customers to retain NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. As stated above, NS Power’s comments are not to be taken as an end...

AI summary The Synapse Report concludes retaining NS Power’s thermal fleet through 2030 is cost-effective. NS Power acknowledges the report addresses the Board’s original questions but disputes its assumptions and modeling. They oppose a hearing on the report, advocating instead for proceeding to the next IRP and implementing the report’s nine recommendations.

through a hearing process on the Synapse Report. NS Power agrees that the proper focus going forward should be on the above-noted nine Recommendations identified at the end of the Synapse Report. The long-term view for NS Power’s thermal u...

AI summary NS Power agrees with the Synapse Report's nine recommendations and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in 2019, contingent on clarity regarding the Province's carbon regime. The letter highlights the importance of aligning resource planning with future carbon regulations.

r 3, 2017 Bob Fagan Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. 485 Massachusetts Avenue Suite 2 Cambridge MA 02139 Re: Key Input Assumptions & Modeling Plan for Plexos Optimization Analysis Dear Mr. Fagan: In correspondence dated August 22, 2017, the...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) approved Synapse Energy Economics Inc.'s amended Terms of Reference (TOR) for analyzing the cost-effectiveness of retaining Nova Scotia Power's thermal fleet through 2030. Synapse seeks stakeholder input on its modeling plan comparing retention costs with alternative resource plans.

retention of the coal fleet is the main issue under REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 2 of 9 examination in this process, as contemplated by the objective of the TOR. T...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) emphasizes that the retention of the coal fleet is central to the proceeding, arguing that Synapse's proposed study framework with 30+ scenarios may not effectively assess coal investment merits. NSP suggests a narrowed modeling approach and anticipates an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will be needed by the decade's end, considering factors like carbon reduction and Maritime Link operations.

t Director, Regulatory Affairs Page 4 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 5 of 9 Appendix A Figure 1: Comments on Analysis Plan & Assumptions Analysis Plan 1. Select...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSP) requests clarification on selection criteria for reference plans and suggests reducing scenario modeling complexity by integrating DSM, Demand Response, and transmission options as flexible resource inputs in the Long Term module, enabling optimized in-service year calculations.

d to be run in each year of the period over which existing units are retired, as accurate interpolation will not be possible for these step changes. ii) NS Power suggests that rather than interpolating, the MT/ST modules simply be executed...

AI summary NS Power proposes executing MT/ST modules continuously from 2020–2040 instead of interpolating results between years, arguing that interpolation would inaccurately represent step changes in retiring units. The approach emphasizes modeling scenarios over time without relying on interpolated data.

des nearly 900 MW of peak reduction (approximately the capacity of 6 coal units), but provides no specific details on the cost or deliverability of this capacity. NS Power submits that it is critical to develop and vet the assumed costs an...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NSP) emphasizes the need for detailed cost and deliverability data for proposed Demand Side Management (DSM) programs before evaluating resource portfolios. It also recommends including DSM and Demand Response in the LT Module and adjusting the Medium DSM case by excluding PHP Mill load from energy savings calculations.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED - Appendix A NSPI to Synapse GU&O Final Report Page 9 of 9 Figure 4: Updated Costs & Trends for New Resources Resource Type (2017) Capital Cost (2017) Fixed Percent Change ($/kW) Cost ($...

AI summary The document includes a cost trend analysis for energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, battery storage) showing significant cost reductions by 2030, and a letter from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) responding to Synapse Energy Economics' draft report on a Generation Utilization and Optimization study under matter M08059.

tive option for rate payers is the retention of the coal fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. Synapse confirmed this interpretation of the results at the Technical Conference on March 28, 2018. The Draft Report circulated on March 2, 2...

AI summary NS Power argues that retaining the coal fleet until 2030 is the lowest-cost option, confirmed by Synapse at a technical conference. The Draft Report lacks a conclusion on the Board’s objective, but NS Power expects the Final Report to affirm this. Uncertainty around Nova Scotia’s carbon regime and federal/provincial policy clarity will influence long-term planning, with a potential 2019 IRP exercise pending policy resolution.

lan (M08350): Page 3 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 4 of 9 D. Friis Both the CA and the SBA comment in their respective Closing Submissio...

AI summary The CA and SBA argue for an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to inform capital expenditures and DSM. NS Power agrees on the value of an IRP but defers action until after the Generation Utilization and Optimization proceeding (M08059) concludes, citing pending clarity on federal emissions rules and provincial cap-and-trade requirements.

regime. As noted by Mr. Sidebottom in response to a question on this issue from the Board panel: … Is it time to look at another Integrated Resource Plan? A. (Sidebottom) I think you took the words right out of my mouth, Mr. Doehler. I thi...

AI summary The text discusses the timing for a new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), with Mr. Sidebottom suggesting 2019 as a suitable timeframe due to legislative clarity. It also notes Synapse's ability to complete the GUO Study without additional modeling, affirming the Company's thermal investment strategy as cost-effective, pending changes from a new carbon regime.

h 28, 2018, page 1‐2. Page 4 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 5 of 9 D. Friis remain so, for the next decade and beyond. The “planning wind...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes the need for updated resource planning assumptions for the next IRP, including renewable/non-renewable generation costs, battery technologies, and DSM potential studies. It challenges Synapse's recommendation to retire a second unit, noting minimal NPV impact from forced retirements.

ol (AGC), and inertial response capability (which NS Power notes would add to the capital cost of the resources). Synapse should ensure this requirement is explicitly recognized in its Final Report. As well, additional wind on the system w...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSP) requests Synapse to address inertial response costs, declining wind capacity value with increased penetration, and consider demand response in modeling for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Stakeholders are to review additional analyses before the Final Report.

pril 9, 2018, page 2. Page 8 of 9 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) April 18, 2018 Appendix B - NSPI Response to Synapse GU&O Technical Conference Page 9 of 9 D. Friis fleet through 2030, and possibly beyond. A clear statement co...

AI summary NSPI emphasizes the need for the Final Report to address long-term DSM modeling, gas-fired generation potential, and implications of additional wind for resource planning. The long-term viability of thermal fleet investments depends on the Province's carbon regime, with a comprehensive IRP expected in 2019 once clarity on the regime is achieved.

e clear and financially sound across all scenarios. There is, of course, uncertainty included in any forecasting exercise but within the sensitivities tested, the general conclusion appears supported. The Industrial Group agrees with NSPI’...

AI summary The Industrial Group and NSPI agree on Synapse's recommended steps for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), emphasizing transparency and stakeholder reporting. They argue that the non-prescriptive report does not require Board decisions, and resources should focus on implementing recommendations rather than extended hearings.

this area. Failure to do so could result in customers, such as small businesses, paying more for their electricity than is necessary and NSPI have a significant amount of ultimately stranded assets. 1 T: 902-835-8544 F: 902-835-4310 E: inf...

AI summary The SBA acknowledges Synapse's report on thermal fleet economic benefits through 2030 but warns against misinterpreting its findings as directives for resource planning. The report's focus was limited to fossil-fueled thermal fleet retention, not broader energy/resource evaluations, which should be addressed in the next IRP. Concerns include potential stranded assets and affordability impacts on small businesses.

tential Study. This update to the 2013 Potential Study considered a portfolio with markedly less energy and capacity savings from lighting-based measures, and as such is indicative of future increased 1 M08059, N-1, Final Report – Economic...

AI summary EfficiencyOne highlights the cost-effectiveness of DSM measures like building retrofits despite higher upfront costs, noting $0.41B incremental DSM costs in Scenario 2 are offset by $0.49B fuel savings and additional $0.61B in operational savings. Synapse recommends confirming DSM potential before the next IRP to reflect energy efficiency's role in displacing costly energy sources.

ficiency. As seen, energy efficiency displaces higher cost energy sources in the province (gas, oil, imports) and the IRP must fully reflect this resource option. 2. Determine costs and achievable potential for peak‐load reducing demand re...

AI summary EfficiencyOne agrees with Synapse's recommendations to conduct a DSM Potential Study before the next IRP, estimating a 6-8 month timeline. They also plan demand reduction pilots pending UARB approval, aligning with Synapse's second recommendation for better cost estimates. The IRP must account for energy efficiency displacing higher-cost energy sources.

Memorandum TO: M08059 GENERATION UTILIZATION AND OPTIMIZATION STAKEHOLDERS FROM: BOB FAGAN – SYNAPSE ENERGY ECONOMICS DATE: JULY 9, 2018 RE: SYNAPSE REPLY SUBMISSION - RESPONSE TO STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ON FINAL REPORT This memo responds to...

AI summary Synapse Energy Economics responds to stakeholder comments on NS Power's thermal generation utilization report, with NS Power, the Industrial Group, SBA, and PHP opposing further hearings. EfficiencyOne plans a DSM study before the next IRP, while the Consumer Advocate recommends a separate proceeding to address wind capacity valuation.

hrough 2030.1 And, NS Power also notes, properly, that these results do not reflect a “final determination as to the long-term utilization of these generation units”. 1 NS Power comments, page 4. 1 However, the entirety of our analysis ind...

AI summary NS Power's analysis indicates that retaining the entire thermal fleet through 2030 is economic only under reference assumptions, which are not the lowest-cost path. Scenarios show economic retirement of a second coal unit (besides Lingan 2) as early as 2024-2027, emphasizing the need to identify the best candidate for retirement after Lingan 2.

Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board Mailing address Office PO Box 1692, Unit “M" 3rd Floor, 1601 Lower Water Street Halifax, Nova Scotia Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 3P6 B3J3S3 1 855 442-4448 (toll-free) [email protected] 902 424-4448 t htt...

AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board concluded its review of Synapse Energy Economics' report in M08059, emphasizing the need for an Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) analysis. This conclusion is supported by Bates White's fuel audit report. NS Power endorsed all nine recommendations in the Synapse report, stating no further process is needed.

ded in the Synapse final report, and stated: As noted below, NS Power does not believe that additional process with respect to the Synapse Report is necessary at this time. The “planning window” this analysis creates, combined with clarity...

AI summary NS Power asserts no further process for the Synapse Report is needed, emphasizing that the planning window and carbon policy clarity will enable focused resource planning for the next IRP. Synapse's analysis suggests thermal fleet retention through 2030 under reference scenarios, though this does not finalize long-term utilization.

ll of the above pre-IRP analyses by that same date. This will enable proceeding with timely confirmation of appropriate input assumptions for use in the modeling and analysis phase of the IRP process. Also, recognizing that the DSM Potenti...

AI summary The document outlines steps for the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, emphasizing pre-IRP analyses, stakeholder engagement in the DSM Potential Study, and Synapse's role. It concludes the generation utilization matter and notes ongoing regulatory coordination with NS Power, EfficiencyOne, and other stakeholders.