Topic:"Integrated Resource Plan" in M10569

1 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 3 In accordance with the Nova Scotia Wholesale Electricity and Renewable to Retail Market 4 Rules, Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power, the Company) is required to provide 5 the Nova Scotia Utility and Review...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power) submits its 10-year Load Forecast to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB), outlining energy and peak demand requirements for 2022–2032. The forecast incorporates historical sales data, weather, economic indicators, and technological changes, while acknowledging uncertainties from factors like energy efficiency program effectiveness and electrification trends. NS Power uses Statistically Adjusted End-Use (SAE) models for residential and commercial forecasts.

Page 13 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 • A discussion of the economic inputs to the residential model is provided in Section 2 4.3. 3 4 Summary of Stakeholder Consultations 5 6 On Apr...

AI summary NS Power conducted a stakeholder session on April 13, 2022, discussing updates to the 2022 Load Forecast, including impacts of COVID-19, EV forecasts, space heating, peak savings assumptions, and methodology from Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Stakeholders included NSUARB, Synapse, EfficiencyOne, and others.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 10 - Year Energy and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to Consumer Advocate Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The document references a 10-Year Energy and Demand Forecast from the 2022 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M10569) and NSPI's responses to Consumer Advocate Information Requests, though specific details are redacted.

of its ongoing IRP Action Plan. This work is being conducted in partnership with 23 Energy + Environmental Economics (E3) and incorporates five tasks, as described 24 in NS Power’s IRP Action Plan Update. The IRP Action Plan Update also pr...

AI summary NSPI is advancing its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan with E3, incorporating electrification load impacts into the 2022 Load Forecast Report. Work is targeted for completion in Q3 2022, with references to programs and materials filed with NSUARB.

Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to EfficiencyOne Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-4: 2 3 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, page 15, lines 3-8. 4 5 “As part of the 2020 IRP...

AI summary NSPI responds to EfficiencyOne's IR-4, discussing alignment with the ZEV mandate and emissions goals. NSPI notes forecasts for EV and space heating uptake were developed with E3, without assuming specific regulatory changes. Questions address market alignment, risk mitigation, and intervention processes.

1 Response IR-7: 2 3 (a) The Load Forecast is estimating annual system firm peak, incorporating an estimate of the 4 reliability contribution of Demand Response (DR) programs based on the Planning Reserve 5 Margin and Capacity Value Study1...

AI summary The response discusses NS Power's use of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) in capacity planning, emphasizing alignment with industry best practices and stakeholder input during the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It clarifies that ELCC factors are applied to Demand Response (DR) programs to reflect their reliability contributions and are refined as data improves.

ing Pricing (TVP), are being studied 28 through a pilot and will be compared against other managed charging approaches included 29 in the Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot project. 30 Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-10 Page 1 of 2 10 - Ye...

AI summary NSPI is updating EV impact modeling to include E1's managed charging programs and the Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot. E1's proposed demand response program for 2023-2025 is not incorporated into the 2022 Load Forecast, as it is assumed to be part of a broader IRP Action Plan demand response program.

ectric vehicles - will likely 29 be part of Canada’s net zero journey no matter which pathway is taken. 1 Canadas-Net-Zero-Future_FINAL-2.pdf (climatechoices.ca) Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-12 Page 1 of 2 10 - Year Energy and Dem...

AI summary The text highlights electric vehicles (EVs) as critical to Canada's net-zero goals, citing the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Deep Decarbonization in Nova Scotia study. It references NSUARB M10569 (10-Year Energy Forecast) and NSUARB IR-07 for further analysis, emphasizing EVs' role in meeting 2030 emissions targets.

and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 With reference to Section 4.4 End-Use Intensity Trends, page 36 of 98, the application state...

AI summary NSPI explains that its modeled heat pump adoption scenario aligns with federal and provincial net-zero goals, citing the E3 model's stock rollover approach, the Deep Decarbonization report, and Canada’s Net Zero Future study. The analysis emphasizes electrification's role in decarbonization and equipment lifecycle considerations.

and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to Consumer Advocate Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The document references a 2022 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M10569) and NSPI's responses to consumer advocate information requests, highlighting regulatory proceedings related to demand forecasting and stakeholder engagement in Nova Scotia's energy sector.

Objective Precipitation mm Sometimes Hourly Objective Wind direction Degrees Yes Hourly Objective Date Filed: July 25, 2022 NSPI (CA) IR-13 Page 2 of 3 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 10 - Year Energy and Demand Forecast (2022...

AI summary The document references Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) 10-year energy and demand forecast from the 2022 Load Forecast Report, submitted as part of a regulatory proceeding under NSUARB matter M10569. It notes NSPI's responses to consumer advocate information requests and includes a page reference to a non-confidential document.

for customers whose heating sources were previously not all 19 electric, but there can also be an increase in load for customers whose heating sources were 20 previously all electric. Even though heat pumps are more efficient than the base...

AI summary Heat pump adoption may increase electricity load despite efficiency gains, as customers prioritize comfort. NS Power acknowledges the need for additional market interventions to achieve electrification goals in its load forecast but has not yet defined the process. References include load forecasts and a cold climate heat pump study.

Southern Environmental Law Center. Adequacy of consideration of energy efficiency in Duke Energy Carolinas and Progress Energy Carolinas’ 2009 integrated resource plans. Georgia PSC Docket No. 31081, direct testimony on behalf of Southern...

AI summary Southern Environmental Law Center and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy testified in Georgia PSC dockets 31081 and 31082 regarding the adequacy of energy efficiency consideration in Duke Energy Carolinas, Progress Energy Carolinas, and Georgia Power's 2009-2010 integrated resource plans (IRPs) and demand-side management (DSM) plans, focusing on cost-effectiveness, rate impacts, program revisions, and stakeholder engagement.

conomic impact variations. Details can be found in Appendix D and generally appear plausible, with temperature being the greatest near-term uncertainty and the economic uncertainty dominating by 2032. The peak load sensitivity used a set o...

AI summary The text highlights the need for a 2032 peak load sensitivity analysis, requests clarification on assumptions in Figure D8, and recommends future analyses incorporating proactive policy actions. It also notes improved alignment between the 2031 forecast and 2020 IRP scenarios.

y the IRP electrification scenarios than was the previous one. This indicates a greater consistency between the forecast and the IRP analysis and addresses an issue raised in our previous evidence. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. Evidence R...

AI summary The NSPI 2022 Load Forecast shows improved consistency with IRP electrification scenarios, addressing prior issues. Synapse Energy Economics recommended re-evaluating variables like housing completions, retail sales, and income indicators to enhance forecast accuracy. NSPI acknowledges addressing most recommendations but notes remaining considerations.

rket Rules, the Load Forecast 15 report provides a key input to the overall planning, budgeting and operating activities of NS 16 Power to fulfil customer load. Specifically, the Load Forecast: 17 18 • forms the basis, in part, for future...

AI summary The Load Forecast is central to NS Power's planning, budgeting, and operations, informing capital planning, IRP activities, DSM studies, and rate decisions. E1 emphasizes the need for improved accuracy and proposes recommendations focused on electrification and demand response to refine NS Power's forecasts.

E1 has identified several issues which it believes can be of value in refining the currently modelled 9 electrification scenario. NS Power described the electrification scenario work as follows: 10 11 “As part of the 2020 IRP Action Plan,...

AI summary E1 identifies issues with NS Power's electrification scenario model. NS Power explains its 2020 IRP Action Plan collaboration with E3 to forecast space heating and EV adoption without assuming regulatory or incentive changes. The 2022 Load Forecast shows increased energy requirements and peak demand compared to 2021, as detailed in Table 1.

Page 8 of 14 NOVA SCOTIA POWER 2022 LOAD FORECAST REPORT (M10569) EfficiencyOne Evidence 1 decarbonization. Further analysis has highlighted the potential for flexibility in 2 residential sector energy use, including that associated with h...

AI summary NS Power's 2020 IRP Action Plan emphasizes firm capacity resources. E1 recommends exploring electrification scenarios using electric thermal storage, wood/pellet stoves, and gas heating for grid flexibility and customer preferences. E1 offers rebates for these technologies, with evaluated savings in Table 2.

has proposed a demand response 5 program within its 2023-2025 DSM Plan. It is important to E1 that all demand response programs 6 in the load forecast are consistently and accurately treated. 7 8 4.1 Demand Response plan in forecast 9 In t...

AI summary NS Power's 2023-2025 DSM Plan includes a demand response program, but E1 emphasizes accurate treatment in the load forecast. NS Power states that the proposed measures are part of the IRP Action Plan, not directly used in the 2022 Load Forecast.

Green Heat, Table 14, page 32. 2016 M06733, E-7 E1 (NSPI) RIR-10 Attachment 1 M07964, E-1, 2016 DSM Evaluation • Rows 243, 244 Reports, Existing Residential Program, Table 28, page 64. • Column AA • Column Z 2017 M06733, E-7 E1 (NSPI) RIR-...

AI summary The document references past demand-side management (DSM) evaluation reports and the 2022 Load Forecast Report in a proceeding involving Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NSPI) and EfficiencyOne (E1). It includes cross-references to multiple regulatory matters and tables from prior DSM evaluations.

red through various ongoing initiatives (the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 26 Action Plan and Smart Grid Nova Scotia (SGNS) in particular), they will be incorporated in future 27 forecasts. 28 DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 6 of 25 2...

AI summary The document references the integration of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan and Smart Grid Nova Scotia (SGNS) into future forecasts. It is part of the 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal, filed on September 26, 2022, as page 6 of 25.

1 Technology 2 3 With a forecast of increased sales and, in particular, increased peak demands, mitigating measures 4 will play a key role over the coming years. At a high level, the forecast already includes the 5 projected impact from ne...

AI summary NS Power discusses mitigating increased peak demand through measures like new rate programs, direct load control, and commercial curtailment, as outlined in its 2020 IRP. Ongoing projects (e.g., Smart Grid Nova Scotia) and emerging technologies (e.g., heat pumps) will inform future forecasts. The CA recommended analyzing weather-related factors on peak loads, which NS Power agrees to include in the 2023 forecast.

ation. The 2022 32 evergreen IRP work will assess scenarios and sensitivities evaluating updated 33 electrification profiles coupled with ranges of DSM programming and other peak DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 16 of 25 2022 Load Forec...

AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal discusses the 'evergreen IRP work' evaluating updated electrification profiles, DSM programming ranges, and peak management scenarios as part of Nova Scotia Power's integrated resource planning process.

ther and economic variables were 28 selected for the sensitivity analysis. 29 c. Please provide the actual statistical distributions used for those variables and the how they 30 were determined. 31 d. What other variables were considered b...

AI summary The text requests clarification on variables used in a sensitivity analysis, including their statistical distributions, excluded variables, and a correction to a figure reference in the 2020 IRP Comparison. It highlights procedural inquiries about methodology and documentation accuracy.

m driver for this forecast, 27 whether any other variables were considered, and why they were rejected. 28 29 Request IR-37: 30 Appendix B: Medium Industrial Model (pp 22-24) 31 a. Please provide in electronic spreadsheet format the data a...

AI summary Request IR-37 seeks data and model parameters for the Medium Industrial Model in Appendix B, including an explanation of why Manufacturing Employment was selected as the long-term forecast driver and why alternative variables were rejected.

ests to Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) In the Matter of Nova Scotia Power Incorporated’s 2022 Load Forecast Report – M10569 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-04: 2 Reference: NS Power 2022 Load Forecast, page 15, lines 3-8. 3 “As part of th...

AI summary NS Power's 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses collaboration with E3 to model space heating and EV uptake scenarios aligned with climate goals. Questions address market alignment with federal and provincial mandates, risk mitigation for electrification, and processes for determining necessary interventions.

wer’s model estimates commercial electric heating share in 2021 24 to be ~52%, while E3’s model estimates the share to be ~27%. This is a significant variance, 25 particularly in the near-term. Date Filed: June 16, 2022 E1 (NS Power) Page...

AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) highlights a significant variance between its model (~52%) and E3’s model (~27%) in estimating commercial electric heating share in 2021. This discrepancy is emphasized as a key issue in the 2022 Load Forecast Report proceeding (M10569).