Topic:"Integrated Resource Plan" in M11108

of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2023 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The document is a redacted 2023 Load Forecast Report, with confidential information removed. It likely contains projections related to electricity demand, generation, or grid planning, though specific details are not visible.

of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2023 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The document is a redacted 2023 Load Forecast Report, with confidential information removed. It likely contains projections related to electricity demand, generation, or grid planning, though specific details are not visible.

of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2023 Load Forecast Report REDACTED

AI summary The document is a redacted 2023 Load Forecast Report, with confidential information removed. It likely contains projections related to electricity demand, generation, or grid planning, though specific details are not visible.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Pages 16 and 17 of the Application discuss customers taking service under the Renewable to 4 Retail (RTR) Tariff i...

AI summary NSPI acknowledges uncertainty in load forecasts and uses Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios to manage potential delays or higher adoption of the Renewable to Retail (RTR) Tariff. A 20% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) is maintained to address forecast uncertainties.

2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) NSPI Responses to Small Business Advocate Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-8: 2 3 Please reference Page 38-43, EV Sales Forecast. 4 5 (a) Please confirm that the 2023 Load Forecas...

AI summary NSPI confirms the 2023 Load Forecast Report does not incorporate EV sales growth tied to federal targets or incentive levels. No sensitivity analysis was conducted on incentive-driven sales. Shortfalls in EV adoption are unlikely to significantly impact near-term planning due to the small scale of current EV loads, though long-term IRP processes will monitor changes.

As part of the evergreen IRP process arising out of the 2020 IRP, NS Power monitors for 30 changes to the planning environment that could impact its IRP Action Plan items. Material Date Filed: June 20, 2023 NSPI (SBA) IR-8 Page 1 of 2 2023...

AI summary NSPI monitors changes in the planning environment affecting its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan items, including adjustments to electricity demand forecasts. Updates to the evergreen IRP process may alter resource addition or retirement timelines. The 2023 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11108) is referenced in NSPI's responses to information requests.

It isn’t clear that the natural gas pipeline capacity exists or that there is an opportunity 29 to expand it. NS Power has stated that its current plans to supply its current and planned 6 Exhibit N-5, Evidence of John D. Wilson (July 29,...

AI summary NS Power asserts that existing natural gas infrastructure can support its current and planned gas plants without requiring expanded pipeline capacity. It emphasizes a strategy using natural gas for peak demand periods, combined with other resources, and cites modeling showing low capacity factors for new gas units, avoiding long-term infrastructure commitments.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 3 “Analysis of Solar Capacity Equivalent Values for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress Systems,” prepared for and filed by Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Natural Resources Defense...

AI summary The text lists multiple reports authored or co-authored by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) on solar energy, energy efficiency, and decarbonization in the Southeastern U.S., including a 2021 review of Nova Scotia Power’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB).

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 9 South Carolina PSC Docket Nos. 2019-224-E and 2019-225-E, surrebuttal testimony on 2020 Integrated Resource Plans filed by Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress. All-source procurement...

AI summary John D. Wilson and Paul Chernick provided testimony in multiple regulatory proceedings across South Carolina, California, and Nova Scotia, addressing integrated resource plans, net energy metering, real-time pricing, and hydroelectric project reasonableness. Testimonies focused on rate design, cost-of-service methods, and program evaluations.

Page 6 of 25 2023 Load Forecast Report – Rebuttal Evidence Non-Confidential

AI summary The 2023 Load Forecast Report's rebuttal evidence is part of a regulatory proceeding, addressing projected electricity demand and resource planning. While the text is limited to the title and page number, the context implies discussions around energy forecasting, which informs decisions on generation, grid reliability, and regulatory approvals.

1 2.0 RESPONSE 2 3 The evidence from Synapse, and the CA, as well as the SBA’s submission are primarily focused 4 on the following issues: 5 6 1. Further details and investigation of the impact to energy and peak from expected 7 electrific...

AI summary The response highlights the need for further analysis of electrification's impact on energy and peak demand, as well as new technologies like smart grids and time-variable rates. NS Power agrees to investigate these issues using data from initiatives like the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Smart Grid Nova Scotia (SGNS), while emphasizing the role of peak mitigation measures.

9 curtailment as outlined in NS Power’s 2020 IRP, and an assumed reduction in peak related to 30 managed EV charging. Several projects are in progress to evaluate the impact of new technologies, DATE FILED: September 14, 2023 Page 7 of 25...

AI summary The 2023 Load Forecast Report discusses ongoing projects like SGNS and water heater control, technologies such as battery storage and heat pumps, and the impact of rate design on energy consumption. Intervenors requested inclusion of project data in forecasts, while heat pump displacement of heating sources and rate design effects are highlighted as key areas for future analysis.

are important to discuss in the initial stakeholder meeting. It is helpful if NS Power shares how potential impacts were evaluated and what was incorporated into the forecast early in the process. Document: 308584 -6- The Board notes that...

AI summary The Board acknowledges NS Power's agreement with Intervenor's recommendations and directs the implementation of specific Load Forecast improvements, including IRP, AMI, TVP Pilot outcomes, and carbon emission model reviews. It encourages evaluating model elasticity and input variables for robustness.

model. • Evaluate the input variables in the residential model and test, over a period of time, if alternative inputs make the residential model more robust, considering the following: o Given the continued population growth in Nova Scotia...

AI summary The text discusses evaluating the residential model's variables, including population growth, household demographics, EV adoption rates, and hydrogen strategy impacts on load forecasting. NS Power is advised to update forecasts and engage with stakeholders on infrastructure projects.

s and explain. 26 27 Request IR-33: 28 Sensitivity Analysis (Section 11, 2020 IRP Comparison, pp 97-98) 29 a. Please provide information about how the evergreen IRP analysis might affect future 30 loads. 31 b. For comparison with the previ...

AI summary The text includes two requests for information: IR-33 asks about the impact of the evergreen IRP analysis on future loads and seeks 2032 data from Figure 68 for comparison with prior forecasts. IR-34 is partially listed but incomplete.

re it can incorporate the development of large-scale hydrogen in the load 27 forecast? 28 b) Given the legislative regime related to green hydrogen is now in place, and EverWind 29 Fuels has made public statements about striving to be in p...

AI summary The text raises questions about NSP's ability to incorporate green hydrogen into load forecasts, the impact of delayed hydrogen planning on energy needs, and the inclusion of hydrogen scenarios in the IRP Evergreen process. It also asks about NSP's knowledge of customer electrical panel sizes, electrification-driven service upgrades, and the adequacy of sensitivity analyses for distribution energy demand.

tomer classes with low number of customers but high usage per customer. NS Power identifies load increases or decreases in these surveys and has forecasted 95 GWh of new load by 2027. NS Power further 2 N-1. 2023 Load Forecast Report. NSUA...

AI summary NS Power forecasts 95 GWh of new load by 2027 but has not conducted historical survey accuracy analysis. The SBA recommends incorporating historical realization rates and addressing RTR load impacts on future rate cases and IRP matters.

r impact on load forecasts utilized in rate cases or IRP matters in future Load Forecast Reports (should they differ from those presented in the Load Forecasting Matter for that year). Conclusion: The SBA appreciates the improvements and a...

AI summary The SBA acknowledges NSPI's improvements to the 2022 Load Forecast but recommends adding a low-adoption electrification scenario, reviewing historical load survey sales realization, and assessing RTR load impacts on rate classes in future rate cases and IRP matters.

are important to discuss in the initial stakeholder meeting. It is helpful if NS Power shares how potential impacts were evaluated and what was incorporated into the forecast early in the process. Document: 308584 -6- The Board notes that...

AI summary The Board acknowledges NS Power's agreement to implement recommendations for improving the Load Forecast, including IRP, AMI, and TVP Pilot outcomes. It directs NS Power to evaluate model assumptions, historical load data, and residential model inputs, and to assess the SAE model's elasticity using data from matter M11267.