N-1Evaluation Report
30 passages
Definitions The hourly net system requirement (MW) less all wind generation (MW) Cohorts are numbered based on the Phase they enrolled in the TVP program. For example, Cohort 4 refers to participants recruited in Phase 4 (i.e. the fourth W...
AI summary The text defines key terms and metrics used in the proceeding, including hourly net system requirement, wind generation, rate classes, electricity consumption, and income brackets. It also references a section on load impacts.
nergy consumption (27.7 ± 37 kWh per year) while still saving on their annual electricity bill ($153 per year) in addition to any fuel savings from non-electric heating sources they may have reduced. Residential CPP participants reduced lo...
AI summary Residential CPP participants reduced load during peak periods and achieved energy savings, with those using electric heating showing the highest load reduction. Electrified participants had significant load reduction during peak hours but no significant change in electricity bills, though they may have saved on other fuels. Load reduction was lower for those with non-electric heating.
MURB TOU Findings Phase 4 marks the first load and economic impacts evaluation of the MURB TOU Pilot Tariff. Ten MURBs were recruited and are enrolled in the MURB TOU Tariff. For the MURB TOU Tariff, this Phase 4 evaluation includes the Wi...
AI summary Phase 4 of the MURB TOU Pilot Tariff evaluated load and economic impacts, showing a 0.48 kW overall load reduction during peak periods, with significant reductions only during evening peak hours. Load increased significantly in March, except during the winter period.
3.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Table 10](#page-49-0) summarizes the results of the analysis for morning and evening TOU peak hours for each cohort and for all cohorts combined. The average load reductions are presented along wit...
AI summary The text discusses load reductions during peak periods for residential Time-Varying Pricing (TOU) participants. It highlights statistically significant load reductions in both morning and evening peak hours, with higher reductions during evenings, particularly in colder months like January and February. The analysis includes average load reductions, margin of error, and relative reductions for different cohorts.
[Figure](#page-54-1) 17 illustrates the load reduction by TOU participants according to residents per household, segmented at the lower 50% and higher 50% for the comparison. The households with more residents achieved an overall load redu...
AI summary Figure 17 shows that households with more residents achieved a higher load reduction (0.18 kW) compared to those with fewer residents (0.13 kW) under TOU pricing. The average household size was 2.03 residents in the lower 50% and 2.79 residents in the higher 50%.
Change in Load with Eco Shift E1's Eco Shift is a DR initiative offered separately from TVP and was implemented within subset of the TVP treatment participants who opted into both programs. It is designed to encourage load reduction during...
AI summary The analysis evaluates the impact of Eco Shift, a demand response (DR) initiative, on load reduction in conjunction with Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing. Results show that residential TOU participants enrolled in Eco Shift achieved significantly higher load reductions, particularly during Eco Shift DR events, compared to those without Eco Shift participation.
Morning Evening Parameters De - El ec tr ifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic De - El ec tr ifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic Avg. Load Reductiona 0.57 ± 0.66 ± 0.74 ±...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data for different parameters and time periods, showing average load reductions and their significance. It indicates that residential CPP participants experienced varying degrees of load reduction during morning and evening hours, with statistical significance across all categories.
4.1.5 Effect of Weather (Temperature) on Load Reduction The DiD analysis reveals that the average load reduction is increased by $0.019 \, \text{kW}$ ( $\pm 0.003 \, \text{kW}$ ) per 1 °C decrease in outdoor temperature, implying that CPP...
AI summary The DiD analysis shows that CPP customers increase load reduction by 0.019 kW per 1 °C decrease in outdoor temperature, indicating a stronger response to colder weather. Figure 30 visually represents this correlation, showing an upward trend in load reduction as temperatures drop.
5.1 Load Impacts This section presents and discusses the electrical load impact from the commercial TOU pilot.
AI summary This section discusses the electrical load impact resulting from the commercial Time-of-Use (TOU) pilot program.
Table 34: Change in Load during TOU Peaks for Commercial TOU Participants Parameters Morning Peak Evening Peak All Peak Hours (Overall) Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 0.7 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 Load ‒ Avg. Commercial TOU 10.9 10.3 10.6 Parti...
AI summary Table 34 presents the average load reduction during morning and evening peaks for commercial TOU participants, showing a 6.4% to 8.6% reduction in load, with statistical significance confirmed for all peak hours.
Change in Load during Peak Events by Region [Table 35](#page-82-0) presents the average load reduction (kW) by region (Halifax area versus the rest of Nova Scotia) for commercial TOU participants during morning, evening, and all peak hours...
AI summary Table 35 shows average load reductions during peak hours for commercial TOU participants in the Halifax area and the rest of Nova Scotia. The Halifax area saw a 12% load reduction of 1.4 kW, while the rest of Nova Scotia had a 0.2 kW reduction, mainly during evening peak hours.
Halifax Area Rest of Nova Scotia Parameters Morning Peaks Evening Peaks All Peak Hours Morning Peaks Evening Peaks All Peak Hours Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 1.22 ± 0.29 1.49 ± 0.31 1.38 ± 0.20 0.16 ± 0.17 0.24± 0.18 0.20 ± 0.15 Avg. Load ‒...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data from a time-of-use (TOU) pilot program, comparing average load reductions in the Halifax Area and Rest of Nova Scotia during morning, evening, and all peak hours. The data shows significant reductions in the Halifax Area, with statistical significance confirmed, while results for the Rest of Nova Scotia are less pronounced.
Change in Load by Month during Peak Periods [Figure 33](#page-84-3) illustrates the impact of commercial TOU in terms of average load reduction (kW), together with the average outdoor temperature (°C) during peak hours by month over the Wi...
AI summary Figure 33 shows the impact of commercial time-of-use (TOU) pricing on load reduction during winter peak periods from November 2024 to March 2025. Except for a slight increase in December 2024, significant load reductions were observed during both morning and evening peak hours, with the largest reduction of approximately 1.6 kW in February 2025 when temperatures were at their lowest.
Parameters Avg. Load Reductiona (kW) Relative Avg. Load Reduction a (%) Significance (p_Value≤0.05) Morning Snapback 0.51 ± 0.19 4.4% ✓ Evening Snapback -0.90 ± 0.17 -13.3% ✓ Overall Snapback -0.11 ± 0.17 -1.2% X Table 36: Snapback Effect...
AI summary Table 36 presents the snapback effect for commercial time-of-use (TOU) participants, showing average load reductions during morning and evening periods, with the evening snapback resulting in a significant negative load reduction of -13.3%.
5.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure 34](#page-85-0) depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for commercial TOU participants during off-peak, morning peak, evening peak, Weekends and Holidays. As se...
AI summary The text discusses the distribution of highest ANL hours for commercial TOU participants, showing that these hours disproportionately occur on weekdays and during peak periods. However, statistical analysis indicates that load changes during these hours are not significant, suggesting limited impact on overall load patterns.
Table 43: Change in Load during CPP Events for Commercial CPP Participants Parameters Morning Events Evening Events All Events Avg. Load Reduction(kW)a 7.9 ± 2.9 5.1 ± 2.7 6.3 ± 2.3 Avg. Load – Commercial CPP Participants, Pre-Pilot (kW) 6...
AI summary Table 43 presents the average load reduction during Commercial Peak Pricing (CPP) events for commercial participants, showing reductions of 7.9 kW in the morning and 5.1 kW in the evening, with statistical significance confirmed for all events.
Halifax Area Rest of Nova Scotia Parameters Morning Events Evening Events All Events Morning Events Evening Events All Events Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 10.6 ± 3.8 7.0 ± 3.4 8.6 ± 3.0 -0.1 ± 0.6 -1.0 ± 1.0 -0.7 ± 0.7 Avg. Load – Commercial...
AI summary The table compares average load reduction during morning and evening events in the Halifax Area and Rest of Nova Scotia, showing significant reductions in the Halifax Area but minimal or negative changes in the Rest of Nova Scotia. The data includes statistical significance indicators and notes on load reduction percentages.
6.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure](#page-97-0) 39 depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for commercial CPP participants during weekdays and weekends as well as across CPP events. As seen in [Fi...
AI summary The text discusses the distribution of the highest ANL hours for commercial CPP participants during weekdays and weekends, highlighting that the majority of these hours occur on weekdays. It also notes significant load reductions during these peak periods, with slightly higher reductions during ANL hours that coincide with CPP peak periods.
Parameters Highest ANL Hours ANL Hours Coincide CPP Events Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 6.8 ± 3.3 6.6 ± 2.8 5.0 ± 2.1 7.4 ± 3.4 8.2 ± 3.1 7.4 ± 2.6 Avg. Load Participants, Pre Pilot (kW) 64.4 61.4 61....
AI summary The table presents data on load reduction and participation in a pilot program, showing average load reductions and percentages for different tiers of ANL hours. The data indicates statistically significant results across all categories, with load reduction percentages ranging from 8.1% to 13.3%.
7.1 Load Impacts This section presents and discusses the electrical load impact from the commercial MURB TOU pilot.
AI summary This section presents and discusses the electrical load impact from the commercial MURB TOU pilot, examining how Time-of-Use pricing affects load patterns in multi-unit residential buildings.
7.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Figure](#page-103-0) 41a illustrates the load profiles for MURB TOU participants and the control group during the pre-pilot and pilot periods with the corresponding variation in outdoor temperature...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of MURB TOU (Time-of-Use) on load reduction during peak periods. Load profiles show statistically significant reductions in electrical load, particularly during morning and evening peaks, with an overall 1.9% reduction in electrical load as revealed by the DiD analysis.
Parameters Morning Peak Mid-Peak Periodb Evening Peak Overnight Periodc Overall On-Peak Avg. Load (kW)a Reduction 0.44 ± 0.49 1.34 ± 0.40 0.54 ± 0.49 0.48 ± 0.31 0.48 ± 0.35 Avg. Load – MURB TOU Participants, Pre Pilot (kW) 24.2 24.4 25.1...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data across different peak periods for MURB Time-of-Use (TOU) participants, showing average load reductions and their significance levels. The data indicates that load reductions were most significant during mid-peak and overnight periods, with overall on-peak reductions at 1.9%.
Parameters Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a Relative Avg. Load Reduction (%)a Significance (p_Value≤0.05) Morning Snapbackb 1.20 ± 0.48 5.0% ✓ Evening Snapbackc 0.53 ± 0.54 2.3% X Overall Snapback 0.92 ± 0.36 3.9% ✓ Table 51: Snapback Effect for...
AI summary Table 51 presents the snapback effect for MURB TOU participants during winter, showing average load reductions and their significance. Morning snapback had a 5.0% reduction, while evening snapback had 2.3%, with overall snapback at 3.9%. The significance of morning and overall snapback is marked as significant (p_Value≤0.05).
Winter Winter Months Parameters Overall January February March November December Avg. Monthly Demand Reduction (kW)a -0.12 ± 1.62 3.28 ± 6.13 -1.66 ± 6.01 0.87 ± 1.38 -1.65 ± 2.76 -0.84 ± 2.64 Avg. Monthly Demand – MURB TOU Participants, P...
AI summary The table presents demand reduction data for winter months, showing mixed results with some months indicating demand reduction and others showing demand increase. The data includes average monthly demand reduction, average monthly demand for MURB TOU participants before the pilot, and relative monthly demand change percentages. All values are statistically significant.
mercial-TOU Customers Evaluated for Load Reduction, along with the Residual Error Distribution Associated with (c) Fixed Effect Modelling and (d) Mixed-Effect Modelling [Figure](#page-155-1) 53(a,b) compare residual autocorrelation (ρ) and...
AI summary The document compares Fixed-Effect and Mixed-Effect modeling approaches for evaluating load reduction by commercial Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) participants during CPP events. The Mixed-Effect model shows lower residual autocorrelation and a smaller median residual error, indicating its suitability for handling time-series variability in load data.
Four in ten customers have automated heating in their business, while a third have automated cooling and just over one in ten have automated lighting. Businesses were asked whether they had various forms of automated or scheduled electroni...
AI summary A survey indicates that 40% of businesses have automated heating, 33% have automated cooling, and 10% have automated lighting. The primary reasons for installation include saving on electricity (60%) and heating costs (57%), with environmental concerns and scheduling also being significant factors.
Load Characteristics of Small Business Customers that may Shift Load in Response to TVP - Reviewing load profiles for all TVP SMB customers enrolled on TVP found only the 4 customers flagged in the Year 3 Evaluation by Econoler (M11823) of...
AI summary The analysis of small business customers enrolled in TVP found only four customers showed meaningful load shift, but three were not scalable and one was affected by external factors. No other characteristics of small business customers indicate potential for load shifting outside of the MURB space.
Stakeholder Comment NS Power Response 3. If known, dominant forms of load shifting by housing type or income.
AI summary The stakeholder is asking about the dominant forms of load shifting by housing type or income, but no response from NS Power is provided in the table.
Responses Filed 30 June 2026 Stakeholder Comment NS Power Response Small Business Advocate 2. Were there other TVP SMB customers who, while not meeting the criteria for "meaningful load shift", nonetheless experienced a more limited degree...
AI summary The Small Business Advocate asked if there were other TVP SMB customers who experienced a limited degree of load shift, even if they did not meet the criteria for 'meaningful load shift'. NS Power responded that there were no such customers.
Peak Month Peak Hour (Hour Start) Average kW per Customer Segment on Peak Hour Small General January 10:00 3.6 General January 12:00 30.5 Forestry/Lumber February 11:00 11.3 Commercial Sales/Services February 09:00 8.7 Hospitality February...
AI summary The table presents average kW per customer segment during peak hours across different industries and months, providing data for regulatory analysis on energy usage patterns and load management.
N-1-(i)TVP Year 4 Report Appendix A (Redline) - Refiled
21 passages
Definitions Adjusted Net Load The hourly net system requirement (MW) less all wind generation (MW) Figure 57: A Comparison of the Residual Autocorrelation between Fixed-Effect Model and Mixed Effect Model for TOU-MURBs evaluated for the Lo...
AI summary The document provides definitions and includes figures comparing statistical models and tariff classifications related to energy usage and billing savings in Nova Scotia.
MURB TOU Findings Phase 4 marks the first load and economic impacts evaluation of the MURB TOU Pilot Tariff. Ten MURBs were recruited and are enrolled in the MURB TOU Tariff. For the MURB TOU Tariff, this Phase 4 evaluation includes the Wi...
AI summary Phase 4 of the MURB TOU Pilot Tariff evaluation found that participants achieved a 0.48 kW load reduction during peak periods, with only evening peak hours showing statistically significant results. However, load increased significantly in March.
Table 4: Impact Evaluation Metric Summary Category Metric TOU, CPP, MURB TOU (all rate classes unless specified) • Change in load (kW) during peak, and overall impact during Winter and non-Winter. Mid-peak hours included for MURB TOU. • Ch...
AI summary Table 4 outlines impact evaluation metrics for load and usage changes under various rate structures, including TOU, CPP, and MURB TOU. It details changes in load during peak periods, snapback effects, average usage levels, and economic impacts such as changes in electricity bills and price elasticity.
[Figure 13a](#page-35-0) illustrates the load profiles for residential TOU participants and the control group during the pre-pilot and pilot periods, along with the corresponding variation in outdoor temperature. Additionally, it highlight...
AI summary Figures 13a and 13b illustrate load profiles and load reductions for residential TOU participants compared to a control group, showing significant load shifts during peak hours. Figure 14 highlights load reductions across winter months, with the highest reductions observed during cold months like January and February.
Morning Evening Parameters De -E le ct rifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic De -E le ct rifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic Avg. Load Reduction 0.15 ± 0.07 ± 0.18 ± 0.0...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data for different customer segments and time periods, showing average load reductions and percentages for both morning and evening periods. The data includes statistical significance markers and standard errors, highlighting the effectiveness of load management strategies.
Change in Load with Eco Shift E1's Eco Shift is a DR initiative offered separately from TVP and was implemented within subset of the TVP treatment participants who opted into both programs. It is designed to encourage load reduction during...
AI summary E1's Eco Shift DR initiative, combined with TOU, significantly increased load reduction during peak hours. Analysis using DDD regression showed an additional 0.29 kW reduction during all TOU peak hours, with even higher reductions during morning and evening peaks. During Eco Shift events, the combined effect of TOU and Eco Shift resulted in a total load reduction of 0.66 kW.
Participants Parameters High nest ANL Ho urs ANL Hours Coincide TOU Peak Periods Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Avg. Load 0.16 ± 0.04 0.14 ± 0.13 ± 0.17 ± 0.17 ± 0.17 ± Reduction (kW) a 0.16 ± 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 Avg....
AI summary The table presents load reduction data for participants in a demand response program, comparing average load and reduction across different participant tiers and time periods. The data highlights the effectiveness of the program, with load reductions ranging from 4.8% to 6.2%, though statistical significance is only noted for the top 20 participants.
Morning Evening Parameters De -E le ct rifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No n- St El ea ec dy tr ic De -E le ct rifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No n- St El ea ec dy tr ic Avg. Load Reductiona 0.57 ± 0.66 ± 0.74 ± 0....
AI summary The table presents load reduction data for residential Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) participants in both morning and evening periods, showing average load reductions and their significance levels. The data indicates that load reduction percentages vary across different parameters and time periods, with all values showing statistical significance.
Low-Income Medium-Income High-Income Parameters AM PM Overall AM PM Overall AM PM Overall Event Event Event Event Event Event Avg. Load 0.43 0.61 0.52 0.55 0.69 0.62 0.78 1.01 0.88 Reductiona (kW) ± 0.06 ± 0.06 ± 0.04 ± 0.04 ± 0.04 ± 0.03...
AI summary The table presents data on load reduction during critical peak events for residential participants in different income categories. It includes average load, reduction in kW, and percentage of load reduction, showing statistically significant results across all income levels.
Halifax Area Rest of Nova Scotia Parameters Morning Evening All Peak Morning Evening All Peak Peaks Peaks Hours Peaks Peaks Hours Avg. Load Reduction 1.22 ± 1.49 ± 1.38 ± (kW)a 0.29 0.31 0.20 0.16 ± 0.17 0.24± 0.18 0.20 ± 0.15 Load – Avg....
AI summary The table presents load reduction data for the Halifax Area and Rest of Nova Scotia, showing average load reductions during peak hours and the percentage of load reduction. The data highlights significant reductions in the Halifax Area compared to the Rest of Nova Scotia.
Parameters Highest ANL Hours ANL Hours Coincide TOU Peak Periods Top20 Top 50 Top88 Top20 Top 50 Top88 (kW)a Avg. Load Reduction 0.06 ± 0.34 ± -0.15 ± -0.12 ± 0.20 ± 0.10 ± 0.85 0.50 0.44 0.84 0.48 0.40 Avg. Load Participants, Pre Pilot (k...
AI summary The table presents data on load reduction and average load for different participant groups, showing variations in load reduction percentages and significance levels. It highlights the impact of abnormal load hours and their coincidence with TOU peak periods.
Halifax Area Rest of Nova Scotia Parameters Morning Events Evening Events All Events Morning Events Evening Events All Events Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 10.6 ± 3.8 7.0 ± 3.4 8.6 ± 3.0 -0.1 ± 0.6 -1.0 ± 1.0 -0.7 ± 0.7 Avg. Load – Commercial...
AI summary This table presents load reduction data for the Halifax Area and Rest of Nova Scotia, comparing average load reduction during morning and evening events before and after a pilot program. The data shows significant reductions in the Halifax Area but minimal changes in the Rest of Nova Scotia.
6.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure 39](#page-82-0) depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for commercial CPP participants during weekdays and weekends as well as across CPP events. As seen in [Fi...
AI summary The text discusses the distribution of highest ANL (Abnormal Load) hours for commercial Conservation Program Participants (CPP) during weekdays and weekends, and across CPP events. It also highlights load reductions achieved during these periods, particularly during CPP peak times.
7.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Figure 41a](#page-88-0) illustrates the load profiles for MURB TOU participants and the control group during the pre-pilot and pilot periods with the corresponding variation in outdoor temperature....
AI summary The text discusses load reduction patterns among MURB TOU participants during peak and off-peak hours, showing statistically significant reductions in electrical load, particularly during morning and evening peak periods. The DiD analysis reveals an overall load reduction of 1.9%, with higher reductions observed during midpeak and off-peak hours.
Parameters Morning Peak Mid-Peak Periodb Evening Peak Overnight Periodc Overall On-Peak Avg. Load (kW)a Reduction 0.44 ± 0.49 1.34 ± 0.40 0.54 ± 0.49 0.48 ± 0.31 0.48 ± 0.35 Avg. Load – MURB TOU Participants, Pre Pilot (kW) 24.2 24.4 25.1...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data across different peak periods for TOU participants, showing average load reductions and their significance levels. The data highlights varying degrees of load reduction during morning, mid-peak, evening, and overnight periods, with statistical significance noted for most periods.
Table 60: Top 88 ANL Hours 2020 - 2021 Load - Wind % of Halifax Temp. TOU Period 80 12-Feb-21 1:00 PM 1,596.1 92.7% -7.8 Off-Peak 81 21-Jan-21 11:00 AM 1,595.3 92.6% -8.2 Off-Peak 82 23-Jan-21 6:00 PM 1,594.0 92.5% -2.7 Off-Peak 83 31-Jan-...
AI summary The table presents the top 88 ANL (Abnormal Load) hours between 2020 and 2021, detailing load values, percentages of maximum load, Halifax temperatures, and TOU (Time-of-Use) periods. The data includes dates, times, and load levels, with some entries showing CPP (Conservation Program Participants) events.
Energy Savings Programs E1 program participation14F [15](#page-112-1) and evaluation reports15F [16](#page-112-2) are used for control group selection balancing. Refer t[o Attachment III: Methodology](#page-111-0) (section III.2.4 E1 [Prog...
AI summary The document discusses the E1 program's use in control group selection balancing for the TVP evaluation, including the Eco Shift program's role in demand response through behind-the-meter technologies. It also references evaluation reports and matter numbers related to the DSM program.
ibing the correlation between being a treatment customer and the average load. 2 is the coefficient describing the correlation between being during the pilot period and the average load. 3 is the coefficient describing the correlation betw...
AI summary This section discusses the statistical analysis of load and usage impact through a regression model. It includes coefficients for variables such as treatment status, pilot period, HDD, and their interactions, as well as the effect of TVP on average load. The model is adapted for daily electricity usage analysis by replacing load with energy consumption in kWh/day.
IV.2.4 Phase 4 Phase 4 (this Phase) of the evaluation uses a similar methodology as Phase 3, with two key distinctions that improved the accuracy of the model. - 1. Heating classification is used in addition to the neighborhood criteria du...
AI summary Phase 4 of the evaluation improves accuracy by using heating classification alongside neighborhood criteria for control group selection and restricting AMI data to overnight hours for heating classification. This ensures accurate load impact analysis and captures the effect of TVP price signals on space heating behavior.
Commercial TOU and CPP Customers [Figure 51](#page-138-1) illustrates the baseload heterogeneity of TVP commercial premises, where substantial differences in baseline (Low, Medium and High), associated with time-invariant variables (e.g. s...
AI summary The text discusses the baseload heterogeneity among TVP commercial premises, highlighting differences in baseline usage associated with factors like business size. It explains how Fixed-Effect and Mixed-Effect models handle this heterogeneity, with the latter incorporating time-invariant differences into the random intercept.
Baseload heterogeneity is excluded by the Fixed-Effect model. In contrast, the Mixed-Effect model captures the Baseload heterogeneity into random intercepts, resulting in decreased RE autocorrelation. Figure 57: A Comparison of the Residua...
AI summary The Fixed-Effect model excludes baseload heterogeneity, while the Mixed-Effect model incorporates it through random intercepts, reducing residual autocorrelation. Given the small sample size and heterogeneity in baseline electricity consumption, the Mixed-Effect model is preferred for evaluating the impact of the TOU-MURBs pilot program.
N-2TVP Year 4 Report Appendix A (Clean) - Refiled
30 passages
Definitions Adjusted Net Load The hourly net system requirement (MW) less all wind generation (MW) Figure 38: (a) Distribution of Number of General and Small General Commercial CPP Participants in Halifax Area and the Rest of Nova Scotia,...
AI summary The text defines and discusses various metrics and figures related to energy load management, including Adjusted Net Load, Commercial Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) participants, load reduction correlations with temperature, and load shapes during winter periods. It references several figures that analyze energy usage patterns and efficiency measures.
Participants Parameters High Highest ANL Hours ANL Hours Coincide TOU Peak Periods Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Avg. Load 0.16 ± 0.04 0.14 ± 0.13 ± 0.17 ± 0.17 ± 0.17 ± Reduction (kW) a 0.16 ± 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 Avg...
AI summary The table presents statistical analysis of load reduction among participants in a demand response program, comparing average load, reduction in kW, and relative load reduction percentages across different participant tiers. It highlights the effectiveness of the program in reducing energy usage during peak periods.
4.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Table 22](#page-51-0) summarizes the results of the analysis for morning and evening CPP events for each cohort and all participants combined. The average load reduction metrics are presented along...
AI summary This section presents the results of load reduction analysis during morning and evening CPP events for residential participants. The average load reductions and their margin of error are provided, showing statistically significant reductions across all cohorts, with cohort 4 having the smallest margin of error due to a larger sample size. Load reductions were 0.61 kW and 0.77 kW during morning and evening events, respectively, with corresponding relative reductions of 25.4% and 28.5%.
Morning Evening Parameters De - El ec tr ifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic De - El ec tr ifi ed El ec tr ifi ed El St ec ea tr dy ic No St n- El ea ec dy tr ic Avg. Load Reductiona 0.57 ± 0.66 ± 0.74 ±...
AI summary The table presents load reduction data from a demand response program, showing average load reductions and their significance across different parameters and time periods. The data includes statistics for both morning and evening loads, with significance levels indicated for each category.
[Figure](#page-56-0) 27 illustrates the load reduction by CPP participants according to Residents per Household, segmented at the Lower 50% and Higher 50% for the comparison. The households with more residents achieved an overall load redu...
AI summary Figure 27 shows that households in the higher 50% of residents per household achieved a greater load reduction (0.87 kW) compared to the lower 50% (0.54 kW) during Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) events. This is attributed to the larger average household size in the higher 50% segment.
Change in Load with Eco Shift E1's Eco Shift is a DR initiative offered separately from TVP and was implemented within subset of the TVP treatment participants who opted into both programs. It is designed to encourage load reduction during...
AI summary E1's Eco Shift program, a DR initiative, was implemented among a subset of TVP participants and showed a statistically significant additional load reduction of 0.46 kW during CPP peak hours. NS Power used a triple-difference regression analysis to estimate the incremental effect of Eco Shift on CPP impact, revealing a combined load reduction of 1.13 kW when both programs were used together.
5.1 Load Impacts This section presents and discusses the electrical load impact from the commercial TOU pilot.
AI summary This section discusses the electrical load impact resulting from the commercial time-of-use (TOU) pilot program. It provides an analysis of how the pilot affects overall load patterns and system performance.
Table 34: Change in Load during TOU Peaks for Commercial TOU Participants Parameters Morning Peak Evening Peak All Peak Hours (Overall) Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 0.7 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 Load ‒ Avg. Commercial TOU 10.9 10.3 10.6 Parti...
AI summary Table 34 shows the average load reduction during morning and evening peaks for commercial TOU participants, indicating a 6.4% to 8.6% reduction in load, with statistical significance confirmed for all peak hours.
Change in Load during Peak Events by Region [Table 35](#page-67-0) presents the average load reduction (kW) by region (Halifax area versus the rest of Nova Scotia) for commercial TOU participants during morning, evening, and all peak hours...
AI summary The text introduces a table that presents average load reduction (kW) by region during peak hours for commercial TOU participants, highlighting differences between the Halifax area and the rest of Nova Scotia.
Change in Load by Month during Peak Periods [Figure](#page-69-2) 33 illustrates the impact of commercial TOU in terms of average load reduction (kW), together with the average outdoor temperature (°C) during peak hours by month over the Wi...
AI summary Figure 33 shows the impact of commercial time-of-use (TOU) pricing on load reduction during winter peak periods from November 2024 to March 2025. Load reductions were significant across most months, with the largest reduction of 1.6 kW occurring in February 2025, despite low temperatures.
5.1.2 Snapback Effect NS Power evaluated the snapback effect based on the same method that was applied for load reduction calculation, but specifically for the four hours following the morning and evening peak hours. As summarized in [Tabl...
AI summary NS Power analyzed the snapback effect for commercial TOU participants, finding a statistically significant load reduction during morning snapback hours but a load increase during evening snapback hours. The overall effect across all snapback periods was not statistically significant.
5.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure](#page-70-1) 34 depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for commercial TOU participants during off-peak, morning peak, evening peak, Weekends and Holidays. As se...
AI summary The analysis examines the distribution of highest ANL hours for commercial TOU participants, showing that these hours disproportionately occur on weekdays and during peak periods. Despite this, the load changes during these hours were not statistically significant, suggesting limited impact on overall load during peak times.
As shown i[n Table 41](#page-75-1), three CPP events (Dec. 15, 2024, Dec. 22, 2024, and Feb. 02, 2025) took place during weekends. The morning and evening consecutive events occurred on December 23, 2024. The CPP events include seven morni...
AI summary The document discusses Controlled Load Program (CPP) events that occurred during weekends and on cold days, noting the coldest event day. It also highlights the current participation rate for commercial CPP in Phase 4 and mentions the use of Table 42 for analyzing sample sizes.
Parameter Cohort 1 Cohort 2 Cohort 3 Cohort 4 All Sample Size 4 1 3 20 28 Rate Class Small General 2 0 1 8 11 General 2 1 2 12 17 Region HRM 2 0 3 16 21 Rest of Nova Scotia 2 1 0 4 7 Table 42: Summary of Commercial CPP Sample Size[11](#pag...
AI summary Table 42 summarizes the sample size distribution across four cohorts for the Commercial Controlled Load Program (CPP) in Nova Scotia, showing the number of participants in different rate classes and regions.
6.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Events [Table 43](#page-76-3) summarizes the results of the analysis for morning and evening CPP events for all cohorts of commercial CPP participants in Phase 4, where the average load reduction values are...
AI summary Table 43 summarizes the results of analysis for morning and evening CPP events in Phase 4, showing that commercial CPP participants achieved a 9.6% average load reduction during these events, with the associated margin of error at 90% confidence level.
Halifax Area Rest of Nova Scotia Parameters Morning Events Evening Events All Events Morning Events Evening Events All Events Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 10.6 ± 3.8 7.0 ± 3.4 8.6 ± 3.0 -0.1 ± 0.6 -1.0 ± 1.0 -0.7 ± 0.7 Avg. Load – Commercial...
AI summary The table compares average load reduction and relative load reduction percentages during morning and evening events in the Halifax Area and Rest of Nova Scotia. The data shows significant load reduction in the Halifax Area but minimal or negative reductions in the Rest of Nova Scotia, indicating differing impacts of the Controlled Load Program (CPP) in these regions.
6.1.2 Snapback Effect The snapback effect refers to commercial CPP customers that use more electricity than the baseline during the hours immediately following CPP event hours, compared to the pre-pilot period. This effect was evaluated ba...
AI summary The snapback effect refers to increased electricity usage by commercial CPP customers following CPP event hours. The analysis found statistically insignificant morning and evening snapback effects, but a significant 6.9 kW load increase during event days with both morning and evening CPP events.
6.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure](#page-82-0) 39 depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for commercial CPP participants during weekdays and weekends as well as across CPP events. As seen in [Fi...
AI summary The text discusses the distribution of highest ANL hours for commercial CPP participants during weekdays and weekends, as well as load reductions achieved during these periods. It highlights that most high ANL hours occur on weekdays, and that load reductions are statistically significant during these times, especially during CPP peak periods.
Parameters Highest ANL Hours ANL Hours Coincide CPP Events Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Avg. Load Reduction (kW)a 6.8 ± 3.3 6.6 ± 2.8 5.0 ± 2.1 7.4 ± 3.4 8.2 ± 3.1 7.4 ± 2.6 Avg. Load Participants, Pre Pilot (kW) 64.4 61.4 61....
AI summary The table presents data on average load reduction and participant load levels before and during the pilot program, highlighting the effectiveness of the Controlled Load Program (CPP) in reducing energy usage. The results show statistically significant reductions in load, with percentages ranging from 8.1% to 13.3%.
Changes in electricity usage were estimated by applying the same Mixed-Effect modeling approach that was used for estimating hourly load impact, where the change in daily usage levels was evaluated through two analyses. For the first analy...
AI summary The document discusses the evaluation of electricity usage changes among commercial CPP participants using a Mixed-Effect modeling approach. Results show significant reductions in daily electricity usage during Winter, with increases observed during non-Winter periods.
7.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Figure](#page-88-0) 41a illustrates the load profiles for MURB TOU participants and the control group during the pre-pilot and pilot periods with the corresponding variation in outdoor temperature....
AI summary The text discusses a study on load reduction during peak periods among MURB TOU participants. The analysis shows statistically significant reductions in electrical load during morning and evening peaks, with notable reductions also observed during midpeak and off-peak hours. The DiD analysis reveals an overall 1.9% load reduction, with specific impacts during different time frames.
Parameters Morning Peak Mid-Peak Periodb Evening Peak Overnight Periodc Overall On-Peak Avg. Load (kW)a Reduction 0.44 ± 0.49 1.34 ± 0.40 0.54 ± 0.49 0.48 ± 0.31 0.48 ± 0.35 Avg. Load – MURB TOU Participants, Pre Pilot (kW) 24.2 24.4 25.1...
AI summary This table presents load reduction data across various peak and off-peak periods, showing average load reductions and their significance. The data includes metrics such as average load reduction in kilowatts, relative load reduction percentages, and statistical significance levels.
7.1.3 Change in Load during Highest ANL Hours [Figure](#page-91-0) 43 depicts the distribution of Top 20, 50 and 88 highest ANL hours for MURB TOU participants during morning peak, evening peak, mid-peak, and off-peak hours. As seen in [Fi...
AI summary The text discusses load changes during the highest ANL hours for MURB TOU participants, showing load reductions during top 20, 50, and 88 hours, with statistical significance for top 50 and 88. Reductions are more pronounced during TOU peak periods.
Parameters Highest ANL Hours ANL Hours Coincide TOU Peak Periods Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Top 20 Top 50 Top 88 Avg. Load (kW)a Reduction 3.3 ± 4.0 4.2 ± 2.9 3.2 ± 2.1 2.9 ± 4.2 3.7 ± 3.0 2.8 ± 2.5 Avg. Load – MURB TOU Participants, Pre-Pilot (...
AI summary The table presents the change in load (kW) during the highest winter ANL hours for MURB TOU participants, showing reductions in average load and relative load reduction percentages. Statistical significance is indicated for certain reductions.
Winter Winter Months Parameters Overall January February March November December Avg. Monthly Demand Reduction (kW)a -0.48 ± 4.45 12.9 ± 22.7 -6.60 ± 24.0 3.51 ± 5.51 -6.60 ± 11.2 -3.35 ± 10.6 Avg. Monthly Demand – MURB TOU Participants, P...
AI summary The table presents average monthly demand reduction and relative demand changes for winter months, showing mixed results with some months indicating demand reduction and others showing demand increase. The data includes statistical significance markers and standard deviations.
Table 59: Tariff Summary (January 2025) Domestic SOR 32 27-Feb-23 7:00 AM 1,897.5 87.7% -17.1 AM 33 26-Feb-23 6:00 AM 1,893.7 87.5% -15.9 Off-Peak 34 12-Jan-23 8:00 AM 1,882.9 87.0% -10.9 AM Load - Wind % of Halifax Temp. TOU Periods CPP E...
AI summary Table 59 presents a summary of tariff data for January 2025, including details such as dates, times, load values, percentages, and temperature readings. It outlines various tariff events and periods, including AM peak, PM peak, and off-peak times, along with information on the Controlled Load Program (CPP) and TOU periods.
III.3.3.1 Load and Usage Impact Regression Model The same regression as equation (14) was used for load impact and usage impact analyses for MURB TOU.
AI summary The regression model from equation (14) was applied to analyze both load impact and usage impact for MURB TOU in the proceeding.
IV.2.4 Phase 4 Phase 4 (this Phase) of the evaluation uses a similar methodology as Phase 3, with two key distinctions that improved the accuracy of the model. - 1. Heating classification is used in addition to the neighborhood criteria du...
AI summary Phase 4 of the evaluation improves accuracy by using heating classification alongside neighborhood criteria for control group selection and restricting AMI data to overnight hours for heating classification. This ensures more accurate load impact analysis and captures the effect of TVP price signals on space heating behavior.
mercial-TOU Customers Evaluated for Load Reduction, along with the Residual Error Distribution Associated with (c) Fixed Effect Modelling and (d) Mixed-Effect Modelling [Figure](#page-140-1) 53(a,b) compare residual autocorrelation (ρ) and...
AI summary The document compares Fixed-Effect and Mixed-Effect modeling approaches used to evaluate load reduction by commercial CPP participants during Phase 4. The Mixed-Effect model shows lower residual autocorrelation and a smaller median residual error, indicating its suitability for handling time-series variability in load data.
Baseload Heterogeneity Analysis The baseline segmentation analysis indicates substantial heterogeneity in electricity consumption patterns across participating MURBs, particularly with respect to Baseload levels. Based on these characteris...
AI summary The baseline segmentation analysis reveals significant differences in electricity consumption patterns among MURB customers, classifying them into Low, Medium, and High baseload classes. These classes show distinct baseload levels and load profiles, indicating substantial heterogeneity with implications for program impact estimation and model accuracy.
N-3Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) Pilot Year Five (2025/26) Evaluation Report (Appendix A)
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Table 3: Impact Evaluation Metric Summary Category Metric MURB TOU Change in load during peak periods (kW) • Change in load (kW) during peak, mid-peak, and overall impact during Winter and non-Winter. • Change in load by month. Snapback (k...
AI summary Table 3 summarizes impact evaluation metrics for MURB TOU, including load changes during peak periods, snapback effects, load and usage impacts, and economic changes such as electricity bill variations and price elasticity.
2.1.1 Change in Load during Peak Periods [Figure 2](#page-18-0) illustrates the load profiles for MURB TOU participants and the control group during the prepilot and pilot periods, along with the corresponding variation in outdoor temperat...
AI summary The analysis of load profiles for MURB TOU participants and the control group during the prepilot and pilot periods reveals statistically significant load increases, except during certain hours. The DiD analysis shows average relative load increases of 5.3% and 3.1% during morning and evening peak periods, respectively, with the largest increase observed during offpeak overnight hours.
Change in Load by Month during Peak Periods [Figure 3](#page-20-3) illustrates the impact of MURB TOU on average load reduction (kW), along with corresponding average outdoor temperature (°C) during peak periods as well as mid-peak and off...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of MURB TOU on average load reduction during peak periods in the winter of 2025-2026. It notes that load increased in December, January, and February but decreased slightly in March, with the most significant increase occurring in January due to colder temperatures.
2.1.2 Snapback Effect The snapback effect refers to using more electricity during hours immediately following peak periods. This effect is evaluated based on the same DiD approach that was applied for load reduction calculation, but specif...
AI summary The snapback effect refers to increased electricity usage following peak periods. Using a DiD approach, MURB TOU participants showed significant load increases of 0.41 kW and 1.6 kW during morning and evening snapback periods, respectively.
Load Profiles - Reduced load during all morning and evening peak period hours. - On average, participants reduced load by 0.16 kW (7.6%) during morning and evening peak periods. - Statistically significant evening snapback was observed (0....
AI summary The load profiles show a reduction in energy usage during morning and evening peak periods, with participants reducing load by 0.16 kW (7.6%) on average. A statistically significant evening snapback of 0.014 kW was also observed.
Load Impact by Space Heating Classification - The steady electric space heating group exhibit the highest average load reduction of ~0.19 kW. - Steady non-electric space heating systems demonstrate the lowest absolute load reductions of 0....
AI summary The analysis shows that steady electric space heating systems have the highest average load reduction (~0.19 kW), while steady non-electric systems show lower reductions (0.07 kW and 0.1 kW) during peak hours.
Load Impact with Eco Shift Events • TOU program alone led to an overall load reduction of 0.26 ± 0.02 kW - TOU participants that also enrolled in Eco Shift reduced their overall load by an additional 0.40 kW ± 0.04 kW during all TOU peak h...
AI summary The TOU program alone led to a 0.26 kW load reduction. Participants who also enrolled in Eco Shift achieved an additional 0.40 kW reduction during peak hours, showing that smart energy technology improves residential load reduction during demand response events.
Load Impact with Eco Shift Enrolment - TOU program alone led to an overall load reduction of 0.15 ± 0.002 kW - TOU participants that also enrolled in Eco Shift reduced their overall load by an additional 0.29 kW ± 0.01 kW during all TOU pe...
AI summary The TOU program alone led to a 0.15 kW load reduction, and combining it with Eco Shift further reduced load by 0.29 kW during peak hours. Smart energy technology improves residential load reduction during peak periods without demand response events.
Parameters Morning Peak Evening Peak All Peak Hours (Overall) Avg. Load Reduction (kW) a 0.7 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 Avg. Load – Commercial TOU 10.9 10.3 10.6 Participants, Pre-Pilot (kW) Relative Avg. Load Reduction (%) 8 6.4% 8.6% 7.5%...
AI summary The table presents data on load reduction for commercial Time-of-Use (TOU) participants during morning and evening peak hours, showing average load reductions and statistical significance. The overall load reduction is reported as 0.8 kW, with varying levels of significance across different time periods.
Load Reduction during Peak Periods by Rate Class - General commercial TOU participants exhibit significant load reductions during both morning and evening peak periods, with an average overall reduction of approximately 2.6 kW. - Small Gen...
AI summary The text discusses load reduction during peak periods by rate class, showing that general commercial TOU participants have significant load reductions, while small general TOU participants show slight increases during peak hours.
Load Profiles & Load Reduction by Peak Period - Notably, the lowest temperature at which a statistically significant load reduction is observed is −12.2 °C on February 5, 2025, corresponding to an average load reduction of 7.2 kW - Althoug...
AI summary The document discusses load profiles and load reduction during peak periods, noting a statistically significant load reduction of 7.2 kW at −12.2 °C on February 5, 2025, and 6.3 kW on a weekend CPP event on December 15, 2024.
Load Reduction by Peak Period - Overall, during morning and evening peak periods, load was reduced by 0.48 kW, however results were only statistically significant for the evening peak period.
AI summary During morning and evening peak periods, load was reduced by 0.48 kW, with statistical significance only observed in the evening peak period.