N-8NSPI Letter update on IRP process
18 passages
firm service customers arising from unit outages, higher than anticipated system peaks or other system contingencies. Figure 5: Illustration of the Planning Reserve Margin 10 IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 11 of 487 NS Power has historically u...
AI summary NS Power has historically used a 20% PRM in system planning, but recent E3 study findings suggest a range of 17.8% to 21% for Nova Scotia's current resource mix. NS Power will use this data to propose a PRM for the IRP modeling. A lower PRM does not necessarily result in lower system capacity or costs, as optimization models often retain more capacity due to additional benefits like emissions reduction and grid services.
l gas price and availability trends in the Maritimes. In addition, the following items noted in the Bates White fuel audit report likely should be addressed during the first phase of the IRP process: • Continue to evaluate new and existing...
AI summary The document outlines key considerations for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process, including evaluating wind resources, assessing coal unit replacement economics, analyzing capital investments at Trenton 6 and Point Tupper, and determining planning reserve margins. The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB) directs NS Power to complete the IRP by mid-2020, with pre-IRP analyses to be completed by July 31, 2019.
ty can MW generally maintain lower PRMs PRM • Islanded systems with limited interconnections and load and Traditional Generation resource diversity such as Hawaii must maintain a PRM Nameplate 1-in-2 Capacity around 40% Peak Step 1 Step 2...
AI summary The text discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its relevance to reliability standards, particularly in islanded systems with limited interconnections. It notes that systems like Hawaii must maintain a PRM of around 40% due to limited resource diversity and interconnections. The document also references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and its appendices.
PRM and west BAA separately – Tests system reliability and production ▪ DR (Class 1 DSM) is counted as nameplate cost in 10-year planning horizon given capacity the PRM from 11% to 20% Reserve Margin Accounting – Load ▪ Peak load in the ba...
AI summary The text discusses reserve margin accounting and loss of load modeling, including the use of demand-side management (DSM) resources in load calculations and the impact of planning reserve margin (PRM) on system reliability and production cost over a 10-year horizon.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 183 of 487 Attachment 12 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 4 of 4 " ( #"(#( # /( &' )&""(& '( # #+ " ( #" #!!"('4%)'( #"'0 • !"'$#"')'(#!& "...
AI summary The document discusses the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update and pre-IRP deliverables, including topics such as demand-side management, energy efficiency, and the planning reserve margin. It outlines the need for stakeholder engagement, regulatory compliance, and the evaluation of energy resources.
LRQVLQFRQGXFWLQJLWVDQDO\VLVDQGUHDFKLQJLWV FRQFOXVLRQVZLWKUHVHUYHW\SHVWKDWDUHUHTXLUHGE\1(5&13&&DQGZLWKWKRVHFDWHJRULHVRI RSHUDWLQJUHVHUYHVGLVFXVVHGLQRXU$XGLW5HSRUW 2QSDJHRI(¶V3ODQQLQJ5HVHUYH0DUJLQDQG...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s (NSPI) approach to capacity investments, suggesting that building or maintaining excess capacity may be economically optimal despite the 20% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) requirement. It also mentions the alignment of data provided by NSPI with the Budget and Forecasting (B&F) update process (M09288). The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process is highlighted as a focus on minimizing customer costs, including those from unnecessary long-term capacity investments.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 197 of 487 Attachment 16 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 2 of 2 Cc: Lia MacDonald, Senior Director Enterprise Asset Management, NSPI Carly Currie, Regulatory Project Manager, NSPI Nicole Godbout, Director of Regulato...
AI summary The document includes contact information for various officials and organizations related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update and a deliverable titled 'Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study' prepared by Nova Scotia Power Inc. in July 2019.
picture. LOLH Loss of hrs/yr Expected average number of hours per year where load + reserves Load Hours exceeds available generating capacity. This metric capture the total cumulative duration of expected reliability events, but does not c...
AI summary The text discusses the concept of Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its calculation process in the context of resource adequacy. It mentions that industry best practice involves establishing a reliability metric and target value to determine the required quantity of planning reserve.
h a reliability metric and target value and then calculate what quantity of planning reserve are required to achieve that reliability target. Figure 1: Planning Reserve Margin Calculation Process 1. Establish 2. LOLP 3. Calculate Reliabili...
AI summary The document outlines the process of calculating the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) using reliability metrics such as Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) models. These models help determine the necessary reserve capacity to meet reliability targets, accounting for unexpected outages and extreme conditions like cold weather in Nova Scotia.
more load and resource diversity can generally maintain lower PRMs while islanded systems with limited load and resource diversity must maintain higher PRMs to provide the same level of reliability. To meet this PRM requirement, though DAF...
AI summary The text discusses how the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) is influenced by the diversity of load and resources, with islanded systems requiring higher PRMs for reliability. It explains that conventional resources are counted at 100% capacity while variable resources are de-rated. The use of sophisticated modeling tools is emphasized to determine PRM and resource adequacy, especially with increasing variable resources like wind and solar.
NYISO LOLE 0.1 days/year LOLE is used to set capacity market demand curve; Minimum Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) is 16.8%; Achieved IRM in 2019 is 27.0% PacifiCorp N/A N/A 13% PRM selected by balancing cost and reliability; Meets 0.1 LOLE...
AI summary The text compares reliability metrics and reserve margin targets across various electricity systems, including LOLE, EUE, LOLH, and PRM, highlighting how different regions use these metrics to ensure system reliability and manage capacity markets.
is used to determine total payments to generators (Net-CONE PRM) For each jurisdiction that relies on a PRM as an intermediate step in the resource adequacy planning process, they must determine what the contribution of each resource is to...
AI summary The document discusses how different jurisdictions calculate the contribution of dispatch-limited resources (like wind and solar) to the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) in resource adequacy planning. It highlights variations in methods, with some using a 'rule of thumb' approach, while others are working on more sophisticated methods as the share of these resources grows.
tisfy their 15% PRM and must meet not only system but also local and flexible resource requirements. Renewables are counted toward the PRM using an ELCC methodology that is implemented by the CPUC. © 2018 Energy and Environmental Economics...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and capacity value study, focusing on the approaches taken by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) and PacifiCorp. AESO uses an Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) reliability planning target, while PacifiCorp calculates multiple metrics and sets a PRM based on reliability, cost, and risk factors.
ity to account for forced outages and renewable units are subject to de-rating factors to account for their limited availability (Wind = 10.3% and Solar = 5.5%) 1.6 Resource Adequacy in Nova Scotia Nova Scotia is a member of the Northeast...
AI summary Nova Scotia adheres to resource adequacy standards set by the NPCC and NERC, requiring a 0.1 days/year LOLE standard. NSPI confirms that a 20% PRM is necessary to meet this standard, as demonstrated in a 2014 study.
pdate Appendix 1 Page 245 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 48 of 85 Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study metric (for example, 0.1 LOLE) and then uses a Newton method algorithm to add or remove firm capacity from...
AI summary The document describes a method for calculating the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) using a reliability target metric and the Newton method algorithm. It also outlines the process for calculating Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for dispatch-limited resources by removing them and adding perfectly dispatchable resources until the original reliability level is restored.
Party Question/Comment & Response 1.1 E1 The Federal government released a draft of new national clean fuel standards, including liquid fossil fuels and solid fossil fuels. Will these regulations be considered for the IRP modelling, assumi...
AI summary The Federal government's draft clean fuel standards will be considered in NS Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) during the Assumptions Development phase. Envigour inquires if the IRP process will address risks and benefits of distributed energy resources (DERs), with NS Power confirming input opportunities during the Assumptions Development and Analysis Plan phase. Topic 2 discusses Planning Reserve Margin (Capacity Study).
electrified heat, transportation, and with greater demand flexibility and dispatchability. This analysis could show a higher (or lower) ELCC for these resources, thus impacting resource planning outcomes. NS Power agrees that different loa...
AI summary NS Power acknowledges electrification and DERs may impact ELCC, planning reserve margins, and resource adequacy. Transmission constraints are excluded from PRM studies due to computational complexity, while DR is modeled as not affecting PRM. NS Power plans to refine the Capacity Study in the IRP Analysis Plan phase.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response 3.1 Screening Synapse Iterate early to ensure LOLE targets not significantly NS Power will use a UCAP (ELCC) method to Reliability exceeded (</>) for any optimized resource plan calculate PRM durin...
AI summary The document discusses reliability screening in the context of resource planning, with Synapse emphasizing the need to ensure LOLE targets are not exceeded and to assess the system's ability to handle increased wind capacity. NS Power responds by confirming it will use a UCAP (ELCC) method to calculate PRM and will not constrain the maximum amount of wind on the system.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
7 passages
will maintain its existing PRM of 20% as the base case assumption and iterate on portfolios to determine specific PRM requirements as illustrated in the Analysis Plan overview. 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 48 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power will maintain a 20% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) as the base case assumption in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The PRM will be calculated using the Unforced Capacity (UCAP) method, and Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) will be used for valuing thermal, hydro, and renewable resources. The Reliability and Operability Assessment phase will ensure a 0.1 Days/year Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) metric is met.
ption. • NS Power proposes to model bookended scenarios via load modifier approach to compare resource needs both under a baseline adoption forecast and a high electrification scenario. 2020 IRP ASSUMPTIONS SET 44 Nova Scotia Power IRP Fin...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) is proposing to model scenarios using a load modifier approach to compare resource needs under baseline and high electrification forecasts. The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) includes a Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and capacity value study conducted by E3 to ensure resource adequacy and reliability of power supply.
ces peak and energy assumptions are significantly different affecting load shape than the 2018 actuals on which the load shape is based. 6. Planning CA Forecast marginal ELCC values may be missing diversity The diversity benefit to ELCC wi...
AI summary The document discusses concerns about load shape assumptions and ELCC values in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis. It highlights the need for more detailed methods and diagnostic outputs for the capacity value study, including how hourly loads relate to weather data and long-term weather trends.
eration • Resources providing firm capacity (firm imports, gas CTs/CCGTs, batteries) are selected in similar aggregate amounts to meet Planning Reserve Margin requirements • The cost of DER resources was not included in model NPV calculati...
AI summary The document discusses the selection of firm capacity resources to meet Planning Reserve Margin requirements and highlights the cost implications of DER resources in the Integrated Resource Plan. It also notes a trend toward decoupling firm capacity and energy supply sources.
Integration • 2.1C – Mid Electrification / Base DSM / Net Zero 2050 / Regional Integration • 3.2C – High Electrification / Max DSM / Accelerated Net Zero 2045 / Regional Integration These three resource plans represent significant evolutio...
AI summary The document discusses three resource plans by NS Power, representing different levels of electrification and demand-side management, with a focus on reliability modeling and planning reserve margin targets. The Reliability screening work confirms that all three plans meet the reliability criteria and supports an 8-9% Planning Reserve Margin target in 2045.
Covid CA Include impacts of current global economic recession on NS Power’s load and the As requested, NS Power has provided an update on load impacts observed from the effects of the COVID- implications of that recession for the resource...
AI summary The text discusses NS Power's updates to its resource plan in response to the impacts of the global economic recession and the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on load. It also mentions adjustments to key inputs for the planning reserve margin (PRM) and the use of updated modeling environments and data, including ELCC contributions calculated via the RESOLVE model.
The findings of the pre-IRP capacity study were used for the Initial Portfolio Study capacity expansion models. NS Power then selected three scenarios (2.0C, 2.1C and 3.2C) for reliability assessment and determination of the appropriate PR...
AI summary The pre-IRP capacity study findings were used in the Initial Portfolio Study for capacity expansion models. NS Power evaluated three scenarios (2.0C, 2.1C, 3.2C) for reliability assessment and PRM determination. All scenarios met the target reliability criterion and LOLE metric, with excess capacity near or less than the lowest cost capacity resource.