Topic:"Program Evaluation" in M11983

2. YEAR-END FORECAST E1 updated its year-end forecast in October 2024 and is projecting to meet its energy and available capacity 2024 mid-course adjusted targets at the portfolio level, while net peak demand savings, and net energy saving...

AI summary E1 updated its 2024 year-end forecast, projecting meeting portfolio energy and capacity targets but falling short on net energy savings for specific programs. Forecasted expenditures exceed mid-course adjusted targets due to higher residential sector spending, including increased uptake in rebates and heat pump installations. The Mi'kmaw Home Energy Efficiency Project and Affordable Housing initiatives face shortfalls, while Residential Efficient Product Rebates overachieve.

Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Energy and demand savings are calculated at the generator and are net of free-ridership and spillover. Expenditure amounts are unaudited. The mid-course adjusted targets incorporate organizational insig...

AI summary The document discusses mid-course adjusted targets for energy and demand savings, incorporating updated program evaluations and organizational insights. It outlines the status of the New Residential program, which ended in December 2023, and highlights program performance against mid-course targets, with color codes indicating variances. Low-income participation and demand response results during the 2023/24 peak season are also mentioned.

3. QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS - In Q3 2024, E1 achieved 33.2 GWh of net incremental energy savings and 5.8 MW of net peak - demand savings. Year-to-date, E1 has achieved 90.7 GWh of net incremental energy savings, 15.4 - MW of net peak demand sa...

AI summary In Q3 2024, E1 achieved 33.2 GWh of net incremental energy savings and 5.8 MW of peak demand savings. Year-to-date, E1 has achieved 90.7 GWh of energy savings, 15.4 MW of peak demand savings, and 7.3 MW of available capacity savings. The section also references DSM program data and program participation metrics, with detailed results in Attachment 1.

3.1 Participation - Q3 participation results are provided in [Table 2](#page-8-0) as compared to the projected participation - uptake in the 2024 Plan and the mid-course adjusted targets. - Results provide insight into current trends withi...

AI summary Q3 participation results show mixed outcomes across program components. Small Business Energy Solutions saw increased participation due to Q2 adjustments (higher eligibility, longer pre-approval window, and increased incentives). Affordable Multi-family Housing had lower participation due to fewer prescriptive project applications, while Affordable Single-family Homes exceeded 2023 levels as initial challenges eased.

3.2 Unit Cost [Table 3](#page-10-0) presents unit cost data for the 2024 Plan, the mid-course adjusted unit cost, the year-end forecast unit cost, and year-to-date results. E1's year-to-date unit cost at the portfolio level is $0.42/kWh. E...

AI summary The document discusses unit cost data for various energy efficiency programs in 2024, highlighting that E1's year-to-date unit cost is $0.42/kWh, with some programs like Residential Efficient Product Rebates and Existing Residential expected to exceed their mid-course adjusted unit cost, while others like BNI Efficient Product Rebates are projected to be below. Factors influencing these costs include customer uptake, program components, and software updates.

1 4. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR - 2 E1's Residential Sector offers the following two programs: - 3 Efficient Product Rebates; and - 4 Existing Residential. - 5 (Note: The New Residential program, featuring the New Home Construction program - 6 com...

AI summary EfficiencyOne's (E1) Residential Sector programs, including Efficient Product Rebates and Existing Residential, achieved 15.5 GWh energy savings and 3.1 MW peak demand savings in Q3. E1 expects to slightly miss 2024 mid-course adjusted targets of 61.0 GWh and 13.5 MW by year-end. The New Residential program ended in 2023, with its wind-up detailed in E1's 2023-2025 DSM Plan. Variations in program expenditures are explained where year-end forecasts differ by 25% or more.

RESIDENTIAL EFFICIENT PRODUCT REBATES (2024) - The forecast shows Residential Efficient Product Rebates is on track to achieve its mid-course adjusted energy savings and demand savings. - The latest spending forecast for 2024 is higher tha...

AI summary The Residential Efficient Product Rebates (2024) program is on track to meet mid-course adjusted energy and demand savings targets. Increased 2024 spending forecasts stem from higher-than-expected uptake of lighting rebates during spring and fall Instant Savings campaigns.

Appliance Retirement Highlights - In Q3, Appliance Retirement remained on track to meet its 2024 energy and demand savings targets. - Wait times for participants were low in Q3, with appliance pick-up requests in the Halifax Regional Munic...

AI summary Appliance Retirement is on track to meet 2024 energy and demand savings targets. Q3 wait times were short (10 days in Halifax, under 30 days elsewhere), and marketing included email, paid media, and social media campaigns.

1 4.2 Existing Residential - 2 The Existing Residential program consists of the following program components: - 3 Affordable Multi-family Housing and Non-Profit Organizations; - 4 Affordable Single-family Homes; - 5 Efficient Product Insta...

AI summary The Existing Residential program includes components such as Affordable Multi-family Housing, Efficient Product Installation, Green Heat, and Home Energy Assessments. These initiatives aim to enhance residential energy efficiency and support non-profit organizations through targeted energy management strategies.

11 Table 5: Existing Residential EXISTING RESIDENTIAL (2024) Existing Residential Energy Savings (GWh) Demand Savings (MW) Expenditure ($ million) Unit Cost ($/kWh) 2024 Plan 58.8 10.2 22.5 0.38 2024 MCA Target 46.5 11.5 19.7 0.42 2024 Yea...

AI summary Table 5 shows Existing Residential energy and demand savings forecasts for 2024, with year-end projections below mid-course adjusted targets due to reduced savings from Residential Behaviour and Affordable Multi-family Housing programs. Increased spending is driven by higher participation needs in Affordable Single-family Homes to offset DSM evaluation overestimations from updated HOT2000 modelling software.

Affordable Multi-family Housing Highlights - Energy savings remained low in Q3, as the program component is receiving fewer applications for prescriptive projects than expected in 2024. Average savings per project have also declined, prima...

AI summary Energy savings in the Affordable Multi-family Housing program remained low in Q3 2024 due to fewer prescriptive project applications and smaller building sizes. Efforts to boost participation included revising affordability criteria, planning webinars, and improving application intake. A marketing campaign targeting non-profits continued, with a Q4 email campaign planned for multi-unit residential buildings.

Affordable Single-family Homes Highlights • Affordable Single-family Homes energy and demand savings in Q3 and year-to-date are both higher than the same periods last year, and the program component is on track to meet its midcourse adjust...

AI summary Affordable Single-family Homes energy and demand savings in Q3 and year-to-date exceed last year's figures, with the program on track to meet midcourse adjusted targets. Reduced savings in the 2024 DSM Evaluation are anticipated, though current performance remains positive.

EXISTING RESIDENTIAL (2024) - a result of a billing analysis to update the HOT2000 modelling software overestimation ratio. Increased participation is offsetting the expected reduced savings. - Additional heat pump contactors were added to...

AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) updated the HOT2000 modelling software's overestimation ratio due to increased program participation offsetting reduced savings. The HomeWarming program expanded heat pump contractors to 43 in Q3, driven by provincial/federal funding interest. Automated emails for Affordable Single-family Homes applicants continued to improve communication.

Efficient Product Installation Highlights - Participation and savings results are lower year-to-date than last year. Measure saturation continues to rise, leading to fewer homes visited and lower average savings per home. - Electrician-ins...

AI summary Participation and savings in efficient product installations are lower year-to-date due to measure saturation. Electrician-installed measures (smart thermostats, etc.) were introduced in Q3, with expected Q4 growth. Marketing campaigns and community blitzes in Q3 boosted participation in targeted areas. Green Heat participants are encouraged to book smart thermostat installations.

Mi'kmaw Home Energy Efficiency Project Highlights - All energy assessments for the current cohort of participants were completed by the end of Q3 and delivery agents are now focused on progressing files through to installation and completi...

AI summary The Mi'kmaw Home Energy Efficiency Project has completed all energy assessments by Q3, with installation efforts moving to Q4. The Q2 2024 DSM Report indicates reduced savings forecasts due to expected evaluation results, including a planned billing analysis to address HOT2000 software overestimation.

Residential Behaviour Highlights - The first energy savings results for the Residential Behaviour program component were available from delivery partner, Bidgely, in Q3. Energy savings of 0.5 GWh were achieved in Q2, and 1.47 GWh were achi...

AI summary The Residential Behaviour program achieved 0.5 GWh savings in Q2 and 1.47 GWh in early Q3, with Bidgely as the delivery partner. E1 reports lower initial savings due to program ramp-up and delayed participant engagement. Q3 efforts focused on improving personalization of Efficiency Insights Reports through enhanced recommendations and survey participation.

1 5. BUSINESS, NON-PROFIT AND INSTITUTIONAL (BNI) SECTOR - 2 The BNI sector consists of the following three programs: - 3 Efficient Product Rebates; - 4 Custom Incentives; and - 5 Direct Installation. 6 - 7 Energy Manager Placements - 8 Un...

AI summary The BNI sector includes three programs: Efficient Product Rebates, Custom Incentives, and Direct Installation. E1's Energy Manager Placements initiative, supported by DSM funding, achieved 17.7 GWh of energy savings in Q3. E1 expects to meet 2024 BNI energy and demand savings targets of 81.6 GWh and 12.2 MW, respectively. Tables are referenced but no program forecasts vary by over 25%.

21 Table 6: BNI Efficient Product Rebates BNI EFFICIENT PRODUCT REBATES (2024) BNI Efficient Product Rebates Energy Savings (GWh) Demand Savings (MW) Expenditure ($ million) Unit Cost ($/kWh) 2024 Plan 35.3 6.7 7.4 0.21 2024 MCA Target 39....

AI summary Table 6 outlines the BNI Efficient Product Rebates program's performance metrics for 2024, including energy and demand savings, expenditures, and unit costs. The 2024 Plan targets 35.3 GWh energy savings and $7.4 million expenditure, while the MCA Target aims for 39.7 GWh. Actual YTD 2024 figures show 25.8 GWh saved and $5.6 million spent, with unit costs fluctuating between $0.21 and $0.24 per kWh.

BNI EFFICIENT PRODUCT REBATES (2024) • The forecast shows BNI Efficient Product Rebates is on track to achieve its mid-course adjusted demand savings target, while energy savings are expected to come in slightly below as savings were lower...

AI summary The BNI Efficient Product Rebates program is expected to meet its mid-course adjusted demand savings target, but energy savings are projected to be slightly below expectations, primarily due to underperformance in the Instant Rebates service during Q3. Spending is also lower than the adjusted target, linked to the lower energy savings.

Program Component • The Business Energy Rebates program component provides financial incentives in the form of prescriptive rebates to BNI participants through both the Application Rebates and the Instant Rebate service. Application Rebate...

AI summary The Business Energy Rebates program offers prescriptive rebates to BNI participants via Application Rebates (requiring E1 project applications) and Instant Rebates (through distributor networks). Applications are available on the ENS website.

1 Table 7: Custom Incentives CUSTOM INCENTIVES (2024) Custom Incentives Energy Savings (GWh) Demand Savings (MW) Expenditure ($ million) Unit Cost ($/kWh) 2024 Plan 25.7 5.1 8.4 0.33 2024 MCA Target 31.3 4.6 8.6 0.28 2024 Year-End Forecast...

AI summary Table 7 outlines Custom Incentives performance in 2024, showing projected overachievement of energy and demand savings targets. The forecast indicates 35.5 GWh energy savings and 5.6 MW demand savings by year-end, driven by Retrofit service projects. Expenditure is expected to reach $9 million with a unit cost of $0.25/kWh.

Program Components - The Custom program component provides large business, non-profit and institutional participants with technical assistance and financial incentives to help reduce electricity consumption and demand and includes four ser...

AI summary The Custom program component offers technical assistance and incentives to BNI participants for reducing electricity use, including Retrofit and Pay-for-Performance services. Strategic Energy Management focuses on long-term energy planning, with E1 merging Energy Management Information Systems into this program per the 2023-2025 DSM Plan.

Custom Highlights - Custom energy savings were higher in Q3 than the same quarter of 2023, and were distributed fairly evenly across the Building Optimization, Retrofit, and New Construction services. - Custom continued to target compresse...

AI summary Custom energy savings in Q3 exceeded 2023 levels, evenly distributed across Building Optimization, Retrofit, and New Construction. Custom prioritizes compressed air projects for faster execution and seeks to enhance audit services. Engagement with companies, municipalities, and government departments for rebate-eligible projects continued.

CUSTOM INCENTIVES (2024) - Strategic Energy Management supported 11 customers in Q3, with one new participant beginning their participation in Q3. Discussions are underway to recruit an additional two participants in Q4. - Two participants...

AI summary Strategic Energy Management supported 11 customers in Q3, with one new participant joining. Two participants submitted savings claims in Q3, though most savings are anticipated in Q4. Efforts to recruit two additional participants are ongoing.

5 Table 8: Direct Installation DIRECT INSTALLATION (2024) Direct Installation Energy Savings (GWh) Demand Savings (MW) Expenditure ($ million) Unit Cost ($/kWh) 2024 Plan 12.2 2.5 6.6 0.54 2024 MCA Target 10.6 2.6 6.5 0.62 2024 Year-End Fo...

AI summary The 2024 Direct Installation program is projected to slightly underperform its mid-course adjusted energy and demand savings targets, with expenditures slightly exceeding the adjusted budget. Year-to-date actuals show energy savings of 5.9 GWh and demand savings of 1.2 MW, with unit costs at $0.67 per kWh.

Small Business Energy Solutions Highlights • Small Business Energy Solutions saw a large uptick in applications in Q3 following several changes made in the program component in Q2 (the consumption cap for eligible businesses increased to 6...

AI summary Small Business Energy Solutions saw a significant increase in applications in Q3 2024 following Q2 modifications: raising the annual consumption cap to 600,000 kWh, extending the preapproval window to 180 days, and increasing unitary incentives across measures.

2 6. DEMAND RESPONSE - 3 E1 launched its Demand Response program in 2023, an initiative outlined in the 2023-2025 Plan - 4 with a Performance Target of 17.9 MW of available capacity. It is delivered through the - 5 Residential and BNI sect...

AI summary E1 launched a Demand Response program in 2023 with a 17.9 MW capacity target, divided into Residential and BNI sectors. The BNI component includes Commercial & Industrial Aggregator results, while the Residential component features the Eco Shift pilot with smart thermostats, EV telematics, and battery control devices (not yet launched). Table 9 provides 2024 results from December 2023 to February 2024.

Demand Response Residential Highlights - The Residential Demand Response program component achieved 0.2 MW of available capacity for the 2023/2024 season, through the Eco Shift pilot, with those results still to be evaluated. Two eligible...

AI summary The Residential Demand Response program achieved 0.2 MW of available capacity in 2023/2024 via the Eco Shift pilot, involving 350 participants and 1,257 smart thermostats and 48 EV devices. Results remain under evaluation, with recruitment for the 2024/2025 season (Dec 1, 2024–Feb 28, 2025) identified as a priority.

8. LOW-INCOME, DIVERSE, AND UNDERSERVED COMMUNITIES - The NSUARB has established a separate Performance Target of 15.8 GWh for cumulative annual - energy savings applicable to Affordable Multi-family Housing, Affordable Single-family Homes...

AI summary The NSUARB set performance targets for energy savings in affordable housing and low-income communities, with E1 forecasting underachievement in some programs due to fewer applications and smaller buildings, while non-targeted programs are expected to exceed targets. Incidental savings from low-income participation in E1 programs are also tracked.

1 2024 Rate Class Results by Program 4 - 2 Tables 2 through 6 provides a breakdown of net incremental energy and net peak demand - 3 savings, expenditures, and participation achieved, by rate class within each program.

AI summary The document presents 2024 rate class results by program, detailing net incremental energy and peak demand savings, expenditures, and participation across rate classes. Tables 2–6 provide this data, reflecting outcomes from EfficiencyOne (E1) and Efficiency Nova Scotia (ENS) programs under Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB) oversight.

1 Table 5: Custom Incentives Rate Class Results Custom Incentives (2024 YTD) First-Year Energy Savings (GWh) Lifetime Energy Savings (GWh) Peak Demand Savings (MW) Expenditures ($ million) Projects / Participants (#) Residential/Charitable...

AI summary Table 5 presents 2024 YTD results for custom incentives across Nova Scotia rate classes, showing energy and demand savings, expenditures, and project participation. Total lifetime energy savings amount to 198.6 GWh, with total expenditures at $4.6 million. Numbers may not sum due to rounding, and expenditures are unaudited.

ATTACHMENT 2: UPDATE ON IMPLEMENTATION OF 2023 EVALUATION AND VERIFICATION RECOMMENDATIONS

AI summary This attachment provides an update on implementing 2023 recommendations related to evaluation and verification processes. Key entities include Efficiency Nova Scotia (ENS), the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB), and the DSM Advisory Group (DSMAG), focusing on Demand Side Management (DSM) programs and compliance with Canadian Standards Association (CSA) guidelines.

n tracking progress over the first few months. With time required for participants to begin acting on energy savings reports and tips, much of 2024 is expected to be a ramp up period of lower savings. (b) The cost per GWh of savings has in...

AI summary The Residential Behaviour program component is in a ramp-up phase in 2024, with participation nearly doubling compared to initial estimates. Although average savings per participant are lower than assumed, costs have not decreased due to increased participation. The program is being evaluated and results will be reported in March 2025.

Request IR-4: - The Residential Behaviour Program was initially forecast to achieve 29.8 GWh in savings at a cost of $2.2 million, but this was revised mid-year to 8 GWh at $2.7 million, and the year-end projection now shows 4.4 GWh at $2....

AI summary The Residential Behaviour Program's energy savings dropped from 29.8 GWh to 4.4 GWh, with costs rising from $2.2 million to $2.5 million. The request seeks explanations for the reduced savings, increased cost per GWh, and how participant engagement impacts program effectiveness.

Request IR-5: - In the Q3 Report EOne noted that participation in the Small Business Energy Solutions program has been relatively low year-to-date. However, several program adjustments made in Q2— including increasing the eligibility cap f...

AI summary EOne reports that adjustments to the Small Business Energy Solutions program in Q2 (e.g., higher eligibility cap, extended pre-approval window, increased incentives) positively impacted Q3 participation, with further growth expected in Q4. The request seeks details on the impact of these changes, anticipated Q4 participation increases, and additional strategies for improving program performance.

Request IR-6: In the notes to Table 2, EOne stated that Residential Behaviour participation is defined as the number of unique participants who have received an Efficiency Insights Report, with participation fluctuating month-to-month base...

AI summary EOne's Residential Behaviour Program participation metrics are questioned regarding inclusion of repeat participants, eligibility gaps, and tracking methodologies. The regulator seeks clarification on participation definitions, barriers to report delivery, and systems used to monitor report receipt and engagement.