N-12026 Load Forecast Report - Redacted
5 passages
2028 14,743 83 11 19 24,343 115 17 26 2029 23,886 129 18 29 33,486 162 23 36 2030 36,970 192 26 42 46,570 224 32 49 2031 55,946 276 39 59 65,546 309 44 66 2032 80,855 384 55 81 90,455 416 60 88 2033 111,788 516 74 108 121,388 549 80 115 20...
AI summary The text presents a table with projected figures for various years from 2028 to 2036, possibly related to energy generation or consumption. It also references a section on solar generation, specifically mentioning Net Metering and Commercial Net Metering under NS Power, and notes that the 2026 Load Forecast Report is redacted.
4 1 13 8 4 5 2036 14 1 13 8 4 6 7 8 4.6 Price Data 9 10 Price data is an input to the SAE forecasts for the residential, small general and general services 11 classes, and the price series is calculated from historical billed sales and bil...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology for calculating price data used in SAE forecasts, including the use of a 12-month moving average to smooth price series. It also references rate increases for 2026 and 2027 based on NS Power’s GRA Compliance Filing and outlines projected price increases for subsequent years.
1 10. PEAK DEMAND 2 3 The total system peak is defined as the highest single hourly average demand experienced in a 4 year. It includes both firm and interruptible loads. Due to the weather-sensitive load component 5 in Nova Scotia, the to...
AI summary The document discusses the definition and calculation of total system peak demand in Nova Scotia, noting that the peak occurs between December and February due to weather-sensitive loads. The 2026 peak was the highest recorded at 2459 MW, occurring during a prolonged cold spell rather than extreme low temperatures.
Page 104 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 be more policy and regulation changes related to decarbonization targets in the course of the 10- 2 year timeframe of this forecast, but the s...
AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses potential policy and regulatory changes related to decarbonization targets over a 10-year timeframe. It outlines various scenarios, including current policy trends, hybrid peak mitigation, and accelerated electrification, with corresponding energy and peak load forecasts for 2026 and 2036.
ice (Pricem), monthly HDD and CDD and a variable accounting for the number of days in a given month: XHeatm = EIheat × Pricem -.15× SmlGenVarm× HDDm XCoolm = EIcool × Pricem -.15× SmlGenVarm× CDDm XOtherm = EIother × Pricem-.15 × SmlGenVar...
AI summary The text describes a load forecast model that uses price elasticities and binary variables to account for various factors such as monthly variations, pandemic-related billing issues, and hurricane impacts. An ARMA process was added to improve the model's accuracy.
N-2NSPI (CA) RIR 1 to 6
12 passages
1 Request IR-1: 26 heating systems for the coldest periods) and provincial policy on electrification and 27 decarbonization? Please explain your answer. 28 29 (h) Does NS Power agree that the forecast energy use reduction from its resident...
AI summary The document contains a request and response regarding NS Power's hybrid heating program, including the use of the Monte Carlo tool for sensitivity analysis and the impact of non-electric backup heating systems during cold periods. The response details three hybrid event scenarios and participation assumptions.
Load Forecast Report: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Actual Demand Reduction Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 n/a 2028 n/a 2029 n/a 2030 n/a 2031 n/a 2032 n/a 2033 n/a 2034 n/a 2035 n/a 1 (b) Please provide a brief explanation of the basi...
AI summary The text includes a table of load forecasts from 2021 to 2035 and a series of questions related to demand reduction, AMI technology, time-varying pricing (TVP), and peak demand events. The questions ask for explanations, confirmations, and details on the expected impact of these initiatives.
(h) Please identify additional data and analysis that NS Power may require to fully understand the performance of TVP rates and achieve NS Power's goals for this program. Response IR-3: (a) Please refer to the tables below. Please that val...
AI summary The response refers to tables containing data values before the application of effective load carrying capacity (ELCC), which NS Power may need to analyze the performance of TVP rates and achieve program goals.
Time Variable Pricing (TVP) Load Forecast Report: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Actual Demand Reduction (TVP) Year 2021 0 0.0 2022 4 1 0.4 2023 12 4 4 0.5 2024 22 12 12 2 1.3 2025 32 22 22 4 4 3.6 2026 36 32 32 12 12 0 2027 35 36 36 22 22 n/a 2...
AI summary The document presents a table showing load forecast reports and actual demand reduction from Time Variable Pricing (TVP) initiatives from 2021 to 2035, highlighting the projected and actual demand reductions over time.
M12875, E-1, E1 Q1 2026 Demand Side Management Report, May 25, 2026, pages 19-21. 1 For TVP actual demand reduction, the actual demand response is calculated by multiplying 2 the average impact per customer for morning and evening peak per...
AI summary The document discusses the calculation of actual demand reduction for TVP, the application of ELCC, and the estimated benefits of TVP from NS Power's AMI Application. It also references past approvals and evaluations of TVP tariffs and the lack of explicit reporting requirements for TVP savings from M08349.
and stakeholder engaged manner as part of the Company's ongoing pricing innovation (as described in the 2024 Consensus Agreement, M11822). [4](#page-19-0) (d) System peak demand reduction has already been achieved by AMI technology-enabled...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of AMI technology-enabled TVP rates on system peak demand reduction, citing achievements and forecasts. It references the 2024 Consensus Agreement and provides data on peak demand periods based on OASIS data and the Tariff.
Rank Date Type Weekday/ Hour Load TOU Weekend Ending (MW) Period 1 2/21/2024 Morning Weekday 8:00 AM 2,088 Peak 2 12/22/2023 Evening Weekday 6:00 PM 2,041 Peak 3 2/20/2024 Morning Weekday 8:00 AM 2,029 Peak 4 1/29/2024 Evening Weekday 6:00...
AI summary The table presents load data for various dates and times, showing peak and off-peak load values in megawatts (MW) for different periods. It includes dates ranging from December 2023 to March 2024 and highlights the highest load values during peak hours.
NON-CONFIDENTIAL Step Description Amount Reference A Projected reduction in system peak associated with TVP rates in 2036 34 MW 2026 Load Forecast Figure 69 В Winter 2024/25 Domestic TOU participants 5,761 participants 2023/2024 TVP EM&V С...
AI summary The document outlines key metrics from the Time-Varying Pricing (TVP) pilot, including participant numbers, load reductions, and calculations for achieving peak reduction targets. The pilot is reviewed and evaluated in a structured manner, with stakeholder engagement and alignment with the Evergreen Integrated Resource Plan. The Year Four Evaluation Report was filed in 2026, and further evaluations are planned.
& lt;sup>6 Please refer to page 4 of the M11822 Consensus Agreement for further details. & lt;sup>7 M12499 – Board Decision and Order, 325082. December 16, 2025. 1 list of commitments and directives (2026/27 Work Plan, filed as Attachment...
AI summary The text discusses the evaluation of TVP Tariff performance and stakeholder input, including the refinement of metrics and mechanisms for feedback. It also raises questions about the relationship between peak load and sales, the impact of AMI data, and the feasibility of using multiple peak events for analysis.
winter morning or evening peaks), the selected peak hour may not reflect the intrinsic peak conditions of non-residential customers. As a result, non-residential coincident demand can appear higher or lower depending on when the system pea...
AI summary The analysis discusses the limitations of using a single peak hour to represent non-residential demand, highlights the benefits of AMI data in capturing coincident peak demand, and suggests using multiple peak events for more accurate analysis. NS Power supports this approach.
2026 Load Forecast Report CA IR-5 Attachment 1 has been filed electronically. 1 Request IR-6: 2 3 Reference: Section 4.8. NS Power states that its peak forecast is unaffected by the RtR 4 load forecast. With respect to energy, NS Power is...
AI summary The document discusses the 2026 Load Forecast Report and addresses concerns regarding the impact of the RtR (Retail Tariff) load forecast on NS Power's planning and operations. NS Power clarifies that the RtR load forecast does not affect its peak demand forecast, as firm capacity contributions from Licensed Retail Suppliers are considered separately.
- 1 customers in the event Licenced Retailer Supplier (LRS) service is unable to meet RTR load or - 2 former RTR customers opt to return to NS Power service. The uncertain pace and scope of RTR - 3 market development make provision of this...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges NS Power faces in supporting customers who may return to its service if Licensed Retailer Suppliers (LRS) fail to meet RTR load requirements or if former RTR customers opt to return. The uncertainty in RTR market development complicates NS Power's planning and operations.
N-8Evidence - J. Wilson - CA
10 passages
I. Identification & Qualifications - Q: Mr. Wilson, please state your name, occupation, and business address. - A: I am John D. Wilson. I am the Vice President of Grid Strategies LLC, Bethesda, MD. - Q: Summarize your professional educatio...
AI summary John D. Wilson, Vice President of Grid Strategies LLC, discusses his educational background and professional experience in energy and environmental policy, including work with the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy and involvement in utility regulatory research, conservation programs, and ratemaking.
II. Introduction and Summary - Q: Please summarize the topics you will address in your review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report. - A: My evidence reviews several technical or program-based adjustments to the base load forecast that I find d...
AI summary The review of the 2026 Load Forecast Report identifies several issues with technical and program-based adjustments, particularly the residential heating intensity forecast and forecasts for demand reduction programs. The reviewer recommends immediate corrections and improvements to forecasting practices, including revising forecast workbooks, rejecting the current hybrid heating forecast, and adjusting DLC, TVP, and BNI curtailment forecasts.
Q: Has NS Power used a consistent heating intensity forecast over the past several years? A: No. NS Power's residential heating intensity forecasts have varied considerably over the past several years. In its 2024 Load Forecast Report, NS...
AI summary NS Power has not used a consistent heating intensity forecast over the past several years. Forecasts have varied significantly, with a 40% increase in residential heat pump heating intensity in 2024, followed by a reversal in the 2026 report, where the actual residential heating intensity dropped from 1,849 kWh/house to 1,655 kWh/house.
The method for differentiating heating intensity for customers with heat pumps included two steps. First, for the years 2016-2021 (historical data), the heating intensity was enhanced by an average of 2.1% per year. Then, working from the...
AI summary NS Power adjusted the method for calculating heating intensity for customers with heat pumps, enhancing it by 2.1% annually from 2016-2021 and then 0.7% annually from 2021 onward. The method was revised in 2024 to address unallocated variance, which was found to be primarily weather-dependent. The 2024 adjustment increased the heating intensity enhancement for 2016-2021 to 2.6% annually.
hanges. First, NS Power increased the heating intensity enhancement for the years 2016-2021, resulting in an average enhancement of 2.6% per year, substantially raising the baseline heating intensity. [E](#page-6-1)xhibit N-1(i), 2023 LFR...
AI summary NS Power made several changes to heating intensity factors over the years, including increasing the heating intensity enhancement and trend factor, and later reducing them in 2026. The changes in 2026 were not well explained, and the methodology used became unclear due to the way values were pasted into spreadsheets without explanation.
Q: What is your recommendation to the Board? A: The Board should immediately reject NS Power's flawed residential hybrid heating forecast as unsupported by facts or sound reasoning. Normally, it would be reasonable for the Board to direct...
AI summary The respondent recommends that the Board reject NS Power's residential hybrid heating forecast due to its lack of factual support and sound reasoning. They suggest using NS Power's proposed hybrid heat pump adoption rate and energy savings data as a temporary basis for a more accurate forecast, while urging the use of AMI data for a comprehensive review by 2027.
V. Demand Reduction Forecasts - Q: Please summarize the demand reduction forecasts developed by NS Power. - A: NS Power forecasts demand reduction due to Direct Load Control (DLC), Time Variable Pricing (TVP) and business, non-profit and i...
AI summary NS Power forecasts demand reduction from DLC, TVP, and BNI programs, based on the 2022 Evergreen IRP and updated DSM plans. However, the DLC forecast is criticized for overestimating actual reductions over the past four years, with a recommendation to reduce the 2032 DLC forecast to 4 MW until evidence supports a higher forecast.
3 Q: Is the TVP forecast reasonable and, if not, what is your recommendation? A: No. As shown in [Table 5,](#page-16-0) NS Power has consistently over-forecast actual TVP impacts for the past five years. While the forecasts for the years 2...
AI summary The TVP forecast is deemed unreasonable due to NS Power's consistent over-forecasting of TVP impacts over the past five years. While forecasts for 2026-2028 are reasonable, there is no evidence or plan to achieve the projected demand reduction growth through 2036. The peak reduction potential of Time-of-Use rates is also considered risky.
3 Table 5: Time Varying Pricing (TVP) Tariff Impact Forecasts from 2021-2026 Reports (MW) Actual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Demand Reduction 2021 0 0.0 2022 4 1 0.4 2023 12 4 4 0.5 2024 22 12 12 2 1.3 2025 32 22 22 4 4 3.6 2026 36 32 32...
AI summary Table 5 presents Time Varying Pricing (TVP) Tariff Impact Forecasts from 2021 to 2026, showing demand reduction projections. A question is raised regarding the reasonableness of the BNI curtailment program forecast and potential recommendations.
Q: What is NS Power's damping method? A: Instead of using a historical average in heating and cooling trends, NS Power uses a trend in heating and cooling, represented as Heating Degree Day (HDD) and Cooling Degree Day (CDD). These measure...
AI summary NS Power uses Heating Degree Day (HDD) and Cooling Degree Day (CDD) to estimate heating and cooling requirements. Due to a general warming trend, HDD is decreasing and CDD is increasing. However, NS Power applies a damping method to prevent HDD from reaching zero and CDD from increasing indefinitely.
N-8-(i)Attachment 1 - J. Wilson - Grid Strategies - CV
2 passages
SUMMARY OF PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE - 2023– Present Vice President, Grid Strategies, LLC . Provides research, technical assistance, and expert testimony on electric- and gas-utility planning, economics, and regulation. Reviews electric util...
AI summary The individual has extensive experience in utility planning, regulation, and energy policy, spanning roles in research, regulatory policy, and advocacy. They have provided expert testimony, designed energy efficiency and electrification programs, and worked on renewable energy and market data initiatives.
hern California Edison's 2021 general rate case (track 2) on behalf of the Small Business Utility Advocates. Reasonableness of remedial software costs to be included in authorized revenue requirement. Georgia PSC Docket Nos. 4822, 16573 an...
AI summary Expert testimony was provided in various regulatory proceedings, including California Edison's 2021 general rate case, Georgia Power's PURPA avoided cost review, and Nova Scotia Power's Fuel Adjustment Mechanism audit. Key topics included the reasonableness of remedial software costs, compliance with Commission orders, and the impact of greenhouse gas shadow pricing on resource planning.
N-9Evidence - Synapse
4 passages
2. BOARD DIRECTIVES AND PRIOR SYNAPSE RECOMMENDATIONS In its Decision concerning NS Power's 2025 forecast, in Matter 12349, dated December 19, 2025, the Board issued several directives to NS Power for its 2026 forecast. In this Decision, t...
AI summary The Board issued directives to NS Power regarding its 2026 forecast, including implementing prior recommendations and monitoring various factors such as housing completions, forecast variances, and government policies on electrification. The Board also encouraged continued monitoring of battery storage price trends and noted some intervenor suggestions for future planning.
3.1. General Updates and Major Drivers While the forecast methodologies differ by class, a few updates and standing treatments affect the forecast broadly and are best addressed before turning to the individual sectors. NS Power continues...
AI summary NS Power uses a 20-year economic forecast from Signal49 Research and benchmarks it against major banks. RTR migration is reducing forecast energy demand, but peak demand remains unchanged. DSM programs continue to reduce load, with data drawn from current and pending agreements, and historical adjustments applied to avoid double-counting savings.
3.4. Industrial Sector The industrial class represents about 20 percent of total load and is projected to decline modestly over the forecast period. Unlike the residential and commercial classes, it is not forecast with end-use models. NS...
AI summary The industrial sector accounts for about 20% of total load and is expected to decline modestly. NS Power uses econometric models and customer surveys to forecast load changes, with migration to RTR impacting load projections. Uncertainty remains due to potential changes in major customers' operations.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS - 1. NS Power should continue to monitor the impact of trade policy and consider explicitly incorporating tariff impacts into its future forecast if they are expected to have a material impact on load growth. - 2. Concer...
AI summary The recommendations focus on improving NS Power's forecasting methods for load growth, hybrid heating participation, heat pump efficiency metrics, EV charging, solar installations, and DSM savings accumulation. Emphasis is placed on using more accurate modeling approaches, incorporating updated data, and clarifying assumptions to enhance forecast reliability.
102381Synapse (NSPI) IR 1 to 21
3 passages
Request IR-3: - System Peak Lagged Temperature Variables - a. Please provide the results of the "iterative testing" that determined the weightings to apply to the 12-hour and 24-hour variables. - b. Please provide the results of the sensit...
AI summary Request IR-3 seeks detailed information on NS Power's modeling of temperature variables in relation to system peak demand, including iterative testing results, sensitivity analysis, and explanations for the impact of cold duration versus minimum temperature on peak demand, as well as alternative modeling approaches.
Request IR-4: - System Peak Bottom-up Approach - a. Please reconcile the statement that "NS Power currently forecasts system peak at the aggregate level….the system peak is disaggregated into rate class contributions based on historic load...
AI summary Request IR-4 asks NS Power to reconcile its system peak forecasting methodology, specifically the use of historic load factors and disaggregation into rate class contributions, with the formal peak model specification. The request also seeks an explanation of alternative approaches to class-level peak forecasting, including those that avoid or adjust for growth factors and historical peak reliance.
Request IR-8: Residential Hybrid Heating (Section 4.5.2, p. 37-42) - a. Refer to the following statements in the 2026 Load Forecast Report: "The 2026 residential SAE regression model has been updated to include peak and energy reductions r...
AI summary Request IR-8 focuses on residential hybrid heating analysis by NS Power, including data on load shapes, participation rates, modeling approaches, and documentation related to the 2026 Load Forecast Report. It asks for detailed explanations and supporting evidence regarding the impact of hybrid heating programs on energy and peak demand.