N-12024 Load Forecast Report + Appendices - Redacted
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2022 unexplained variance and 2 report on its findings in the 2024 Load Forecast Report. 3 2F 3 4 In accordance with the Board’s direction, NS Power revised and enhanced the 2024 Load 5 Forecast in the following manner: 6 7 • The EV foreca...
AI summary NS Power revised the 2024 Load Forecast Report per the Board's direction, updating EV forecasts, integrating hybrid electrification scenarios, summarizing Smart Grid and Demand Response projects, discussing economic inputs, hydrogen production impacts, and analyzing residential forecast variances.
Page 57 of 100 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 5.0 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 2 3 The Residential sales forecast is generated as the product of a residential average use 4 forecast and a customer co...
AI summary The 2024 Load Forecast Report discusses the Residential sector's sales forecast, which is based on average use and customer count forecasts. Factors influencing growth include work-from-home activity, new customers, and increased heat pump usage. A figure compares forecast to actuals and weather normalized totals for 2021 to 2024.
ter controllers 11 were procured and installed in residential homes, and testing was completed to demonstrate 12 the benefit of utility-managed load shift events. Results from the pilot, as presented in E1’s 13 2023 DSM Programs Evaluation...
AI summary The document discusses a pilot project involving demand response (DR) controllers installed in residential homes, showing an average DR capacity of 385 W during winter peak periods. It also mentions a two-phase pilot with commercial and industrial customers, with a total available DR capacity of 2.365 MW reported in the 2023 DSM Programs Evaluation Report.
N-6NSPI (Synapse) RIR-1 to RIR-54 - Redacted
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2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 Residential and Commercial Heating and Heat Pumps (Section 4.4, pp 30-35) 4 5 (a) Refer to the E3 scenario on pag...
AI summary The NSUARB M11689 document outlines NSPI's responses to Synapse Information Requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report. Key questions focus on emissions scenarios, heating saturation forecasts, and customer heating technology distribution across forecast years.
2 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-32 Attachment 1 Page 3 of 12 1 Residential DR Overview This section describes the Residential Demand Response (DR) program component, follows up on past eva...
AI summary The Residential Demand Response (DR) program was officially launched in 2023 by EOne. It includes a pathway from a pilot initiative, the Domestic Hot Water Direct Load Control Pilot, which was implemented in 2020. During the 2022-23 winter peak season, NS Power called 35 DR events to reduce demand during peak periods.
pm on weekdays. As presented in Figure 1, NS Power called 35 events during the 2022-23 winter peak season. Figure 1: Overview of Residential DR Participation, 2022-2023 14 3.2 3.1 12 3.1 10 3.0 2.9 8 2.9 2.8 6 2.8 4 2.7 2 2.6 0 2.5 Decembe...
AI summary The document discusses the participation of residential demand response (DR) programs during the 2022-23 winter peak season, highlighting 35 events called by NS Power. No target was set for new and total available DR capacity in 2023. The Evaluator did not issue improvement recommendations for the DHW Direct Load Control Pilot in 2022.
1.2 Follow-up on Past Evaluation Report Recommendations The Evaluator evaluated the DHW Direct Load Control Pilot for the first time in 2022 and did not issue improvement recommendations. 2 During the first year of the pilot, Aquanta contr...
AI summary The document discusses the follow-up on past evaluation report recommendations related to the DHW Direct Load Control Pilot. It notes that no improvement recommendations were issued in 2022. In 2023, EOne transitioned from Aquanta controllers to Shifted controllers, resulting in a 31% increase in the total number of controllers for the Residential Demand Response program.
Number of Shifted Controllers 74 81 0 2022 2023 Residential Demand Response Final Report 4 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2024 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-32 Attachment 1 Page 5 of 12 2 Residential DR Evaluation Approach T...
AI summary The 2023 Residential Demand Response (DR) evaluation focused on calculating new and total available DR capacity. The evaluation approach included key research questions and methodologies outlined in Table 5, which maps objectives to specific methods used by the Evaluator.
e rates and applied these to the 2023 participation level. The detailed methodology and results obtained are presented in Subsection 3.2.2. The 2020-2022 Measure Assessment4 was updated accordingly. 3 Herein, systems refer to water heaters...
AI summary The document discusses the methodology used to calculate demand response (DR) capacity based on evaluation results from the 2020-2022 Measure Assessment. It references the detailed calculation methodology presented in Section 3 and applies these to the 2023 participation level.
e random sampling errors into account; they do not reflect non- sampling errors or biases such as data entry errors, inaccurate responses from respondents, or the inability to contact certain people. Residential Demand Response Final Repor...
AI summary This section discusses the evaluation of residential demand response (DR) capacity in 2023, including a tracking sheet audit to ensure data completeness and consistency, and the calculation of available DR capacity based on in-service rates and unitary values.
at were multiplied by the number of controllers to obtain the evaluated available DR capacity. This subsection presents both the new and total available DR capacities generated through Residential DR. 3.2.1 In-service Rates For the DHW Dir...
AI summary This section discusses the calculation of available demand response (DR) capacity through residential DR programs, focusing on the in-service rate (ISR) for the DHW Direct Load Control pathway. It compares ISR values between Shifted and Aquanta, highlighting a stable rate compared to previous years.
In-service Rate 81% 82% Margin of Error 4% 2% 3.2.2 Unitary Available DR Capacity For the DHW Direct Load Control pathway, EOne and the Evaluator rely on a unitary available DR capacity value, more precisely the average available DR capaci...
AI summary The document discusses the unitary available DR capacity for the DHW Direct Load Control pathway, focusing on updating baseline methodology and improving accuracy of estimates using 2022 and 2023 controller meter data. It also references the 2020-2022 Measure Assessment and mentions the Residential Demand Response Final Report.
It should be noted that the program being only in its second year, only limited data are available on how long participants will remain in the program, thus this EUL value should be used with caution. 3.2.5 Evaluated New and Total Availabl...
AI summary The document discusses the evaluation of new and total available demand response (DR) capacity for residential programs in 2023, noting limited data availability and the use of an effective useful life (EUL) value with caution. It also outlines the calculation method for available DR capacity and references line loss factors submitted to the NSUARB.
Table 9: Evaluated 2023 Residential DR Total Available DR Capacity Shifted Aquanta Total Number of Units 81 78 159 In-service Rate (%) 81% 82% - Unitary Available DR Capacity (W/controller) 385 403 - Portion of Peak Period with Installed C...
AI summary The document presents data on the evaluated 2023 residential demand response (DR) capacity, including the number of units, in-service rates, and available DR capacity at both the meter and generator levels. Figure 3 compares targeted and evaluated DR capacity for the year.
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 Targets Evaluated 8 Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board, Matter M06555, 2014 Cost of Service Study Progress Update, Exhibit N-2.09, Appendix I1. Residential Demand Response Final Report 10 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL I...
AI summary The document discusses the realization rates for new and total available demand response (DR) capacities in Nova Scotia, comparing tracked and evaluated capacities. The realization rates were established at 85% for new DR capacity and 79% for total available DR capacity.
EOne 0.027 MW 85% Evaluation Results 0.023 MW Total Available DR Capacity Tracked Available DR Capacity by EOne 0.073 MW 79% Evaluation Results 0.058 MW Evaluated new and total available DR capacities were 15% to 21% lower than the values...
AI summary The 2023 Residential Demand Response evaluation found that new and total available DR capacities exceeded targets, with new capacity at 0.023 MW and total at 0.058 MW. The evaluation also noted that the new baselining approach improved accuracy in estimating DR capacity.
ate as well as the unitary available DR capacity values. 2023 Res DR Finding: The evaluated available DR capacity determined by the Evaluator was lower than the available DR capacity tracked by EOne. The evaluated new and total available D...
AI summary The 2023 Residential Demand Response (DR) Finding indicates that the evaluated available DR capacity was 15% and 21% lower than the values tracked by EOne, due to a new baselining approach and lower participant capacity in the second year of participation.
2024 Load Forecast Report (NSUARB M11689) NSPI Responses to Synapse Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 (i) Please note any changes in the model specification relative to the 2023 forecast 2 residential model, and please further quanti...
AI summary NSPI provided responses to Synapse Information Requests regarding the 2024 Load Forecast Report, detailing changes in the residential model specification and the impact of these changes, particularly focusing on the growth of HP Heat and HP Cool shares over time.
2024 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-37 Attachment 1 Page 6 of 6 Residential load post regression Existing Cus New Custo EV's Solar RTR Hybrid DSM Residential Sales (with DSM) Total DSM Captured by End Uses Residential DSM Coeff 2024 10,46...
AI summary The document presents residential load forecasts and regression analysis for 2024 and 2034, including factors like new customers, EVs, solar, DSM, and residential sales. It outlines changes in load, average use, and intensities, providing insights into residential energy consumption trends.
N-8Evidence of Synapse (BCC)
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levels. We ask NSPI to explore the potential for greater industrial savings. We ask NSPI to explore the impacts of real time rates. We ask NSPI to explore the impacts of increases in industrial RTR. 2.5. Commercial and Industrial Electrifi...
AI summary The text discusses requests for NSPI to explore industrial savings, real-time rates, and impacts of industrial RTR. It outlines forecasts for commercial and industrial electrification, municipal sector load reductions, and the modest impact of DSM savings on energy forecasts, noting changes in the coefficient used to adjust future DSM savings.
water heater demand response pilot in formulating its residential peak forecast. We further recommend consideration of heat pump-based hot water heating in the next forecast (page 18). 4. NSPI should carefully monitor EV adoption and updat...
AI summary The document outlines recommendations for NSPI regarding load forecasting, including monitoring EV adoption, incorporating heat pump-based hot water heating, validating assumptions about solar generation, and refining proxies for customer growth. It also raises questions about the impact of shifting EV loads to the commercial sector, DSM program expansion, on-site solar potential, and the RTR program.