Topic:"Residential Programs" in M10569

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 3 1.0 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 7 4 2.0 Introduction .................................................................

AI summary The text is a table of contents from a regulatory proceeding document, outlining sections such as forecasting approach, historical energy data, weather, economic information, price data, and sector-specific analyses (residential, commercial). It structures the report's content without discussing specific claims or arguments.

D (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 17: Residential Economic Drivers 2

AI summary The document presents a redacted section of the 2022 Load Forecast Report, focusing on residential economic drivers, though key details have been removed due to confidentiality.

stallations, while 12 the actual number was 1,628, for a cumulative total of 4,022 (33 MW) by the end of the 13 year15. As of 2021, the average installed capacity is approximately 8.3 kW for residential 14 customers and 33 kW for non-resid...

AI summary The text discusses the installation of solar systems in Nova Scotia, noting that the actual number of installations by the end of the year was 1,628, with a cumulative total of 4,022 (33 MW). It also provides data on average installed capacity and estimated annual net metering solar generation.

is shown in Figure 29. There is no forecast 16 reduction in NS Power peak as solar generation occurs at times non-coincident with NS 17 Power’s system peak (winter evenings). 18 16 https://www.efficiencyns.ca/residential/services-rebates/s...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of solar generation on NS Power's peak demand, noting that solar production occurs at times not coinciding with system peak demand during winter evenings. It also references a load forecast report and various studies and rebate programs related to residential solar initiatives.

ell as smaller appliances such as computers, dehumidifiers, 28 microwaves, etc. This category also includes solar generation (photovoltaic or PV) 29 and EV forecasts. 30 DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 49 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION...

AI summary The document discusses residential and commercial end-use intensities, including trends in heating, cooling, and appliance usage. It highlights the increasing use of heat pumps and the impact on energy demand, as well as the slow decline in lighting and refrigeration due to improved efficiency. Supporting data is referenced in an attachment.

Page 59 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 forecast is that there will be a certain amount of continued work-from-home load, likely 2 through hybrid work models. 3 4 Apart from the shift...

AI summary The 2022 Load Forecast Report discusses the impact of increased work-from-home trends, higher EV penetration, and electric space heating on long-term load forecasts. These factors are expected to influence load patterns starting around 2025, with new customer growth offsetting some efficiency gains and solar generation.

1 in remote work that resulted from COVID-19 restrictions contributed to further increases 2 in population with people moving to Nova Scotia from other provinces. The Conference 3 Board of Canada predicts continued strong population growth...

AI summary Population growth in Nova Scotia, driven by remote work from the pandemic, is expected to increase housing demand. New residential customers are categorized into single-family and multi-unit homes, with varying average energy usage. While building efficiency is expected to improve, house sizes are also increasing, leading to a slight decrease in average energy use per new residential customer.

breakdown of the components of the Residential forecast at the 5 system level. Please refer to Appendix B for tables with a detailed breakdown of the 6 changes from 2022 to 2032. 7 DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 62 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL...

AI summary The text refers to a breakdown of the Residential forecast at the system level and directs readers to Appendix B for detailed changes from 2022 to 2032. It also mentions a figure titled 'Residential Sales Components by Year' from the 2022 Load Forecast Report.

Page 91 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2022 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 The model does not need all 8760 hours available each year, only residential loads at the 2 hour of system peak of each month of the historical...

AI summary The document discusses the 2022 Load Forecast Report, focusing on residential load forecasting using historical data and the Load Research Sample (LRS). It mentions the use of a top-down model and the SAE Peak Demand equation, with Figure 65 illustrating historical data and forecasts.

t Appendix B Page 5 of 32 Appendix B – Forecast Model Details Residential SAE Model Fit Residential Model 2022-2032 Reconciliation The following tables provide details reflecting the changes between 2022 and 2032 forecast years. Some of th...

AI summary The document provides a reconciliation of residential load forecasts between 2022 and 2032, showing changes in customer load, EV load, solar load, and DSM captured. It includes a table with data on existing and new customer usage, energy efficiency savings, and load adjustments.

Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to Consumer Advocate Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-8: 2 3 Reference Report p. 59: “The non-weather variance in 2021 is mainly related to an inc...

AI summary NSPI responds to a consumer advocate's query about factors influencing new customers in Nova Scotia's 2022 Load Forecast Report. NSPI states there is no analysis linking new customers to pandemic-driven migration, notes population growth since 2016, and acknowledges no concrete policies for affordable housing. The response also addresses residential model accuracy and commercial model considerations.

1 Request IR-2: 2 3 (a) Please describe all electrification research/pilots/programs NS Power is currently 4 planning and/or carrying out. 5 6 (b) Please provide all applicable project schedules, studies and/or reports that have been 7 dev...

AI summary NS Power outlines electrification initiatives, including residential heating solutions with heat pumps and commercial HVAC electrification programs. The response highlights contractor networks, on-bill financing, and a four-year Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot (M10176) focused on advanced metering infrastructure and building decarbonization studies.

Energy and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-18: 2 3 With reference to Section 4.4 End-Use Intensity Trends, page 47 of 98, Figure 29: PV...

AI summary NSPI provided an expanded table showing photovoltaic (PV) impact on energy and peak load from 2019 to 2032, including actual new installs and load reductions. The data indicates increasing PV installations and corresponding load reductions over time.

roval.1 The remaining years are based on E1’s 2019 potential 12 study2. Any year to year variance is a result of changes in the forecast DSM amounts as provided 13 by E1 in those two forecasts. 1 M10473, EfficiencyOne 2023-2025 DSM Resourc...

AI summary The document addresses a correction in the residential forecast methodology, clarifying that housing completions, not starts, are used for customer count forecasting. This correction is part of NSPI's response to an information request from the NSUARB regarding the 2022 Load Forecast Report.

and Demand Forecast (2022 Load Forecast Report) (NSUARB M10569) NSPI Responses to NSUARB Information Requests NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-23: 2 3 With reference to Section 5.0 Residential Sector, the application discusses the model used...

AI summary NSPI responds to NSUARB's information request regarding the residential sales forecast model. They explain that the price of home heating oil was excluded as it was not statistically significant. They also note that housing completions data comes from the Conference Board of Canada, and they lack information on how government commitments to affordable housing will affect forecasts.

Single Family Multi Family Completions Completions Residential Customer (Conference (Conference Customer accounts Board data) Board Data) Count Year Month SmlGenCustNManGDP Yr20Plus XMissing YMissing Variable Coefficient StdErr T-Stat P-Va...

AI summary The text presents statistical data on residential customer accounts and economic variables (e.g., NManGDP, Yr20Plus) from 2012 to 2017, including coefficients, standard errors, and p-values for regression analysis. It includes monthly metrics and economic indicators related to small generators and customer account counts.

Customer count and housing New housing usage NSPI and other Programs Before future DSM Year SAE Historical Increment Cumlative New Cumulative Forecasted New New Structural Forecast RTR Electric End-Use Solar PV Total Total SAE + model Cust...

AI summary The table presents energy usage metrics, customer counts, and program data for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) from 2012 to 2015, including new housing usage, structural changes, and forecasted energy demand. It highlights residential and commercial energy consumption trends alongside DSM program impacts.

iven the need for general consistency within Canada as a whole. We note however the inherent uncertainty of all economic forecasts and also that the future may diverge significantly from the forecast. The forecast now gives more considerat...

AI summary NSPI updated its forecast to reflect climate change impacts, adjusting heating and cooling degree day trends. The residential sector, comprising 45% of load, is projected to grow 6.6% with DSM programs, versus 13% without. Additional weather data had minimal impact and was not incorporated.

-3.1% -0.1% -6.8% 6.6% load Note: Res Sales = Existing Customer Load + New Customer Load + EV Load + Solar Load + RTR + DSM. Source: NSPI load forecast report Appendix B. Heat pumps The heat pump section of the report discusses replacement...

AI summary The report forecasts heat pump saturation increasing from 35% (2022) to 66% (2032), with residential load changes offsetting due to fossil-to-electric heating replacements. Cooling demand (XCool) rises 78%, but overall residential load increases only 1.3% due to heating efficiency gains. Uncertainty remains about installation modes (sole heat source vs. hybrid systems) and actual saturation rates.

r clarification is the mode of these new heat pump installations. For example, whether the new installation is the sole heating source, or whether some existing fossil heating systems remain in place. There is some uncertainty as to the ov...

AI summary The text discusses uncertainties around the peak load effects of heat pump installations and the conversion of water heaters to electric models. It recommends further investigation into these impacts and monitoring of energy usage trends. NSPI is asked to provide updates on demand response initiatives for water heaters.

harging, to shift electric vehicle charging to off-peak times.16 We ask that more complete results of the SGNS project regarding electric vehicle impacts be included in the next load forecast report. Solar generation (PV) Solar generation...

AI summary The text discusses load forecasting considerations for electric vehicles, solar PV, and battery storage, noting their potential impacts. It requests more comprehensive SGNS project data on EV and battery storage impacts, and highlights new customer contributions to residential load growth.

$1,500 Ground Source Heat Pump: 40% rebate was provided to a maximum of $2,500

AI summary A 40% rebate for ground source heat pumps, capped at $2,500, is outlined. The text specifies a $1,500 figure, though it is unclear if this represents a specific case or the total rebate value.

October 2, 2015 – December 31, 2015: Ductless Muni-Split Heat Pump: $300 rebate for First Head and $150 rebate for each subsequent head or system. 2016 M06733, E-7 E1 (NSPI) RIR-10 Attachment 1 Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pump: $300 rebate •...

AI summary The document outlines rebate amounts for various heat pump models from 2016 to 2020, including ductless mini-split, central ducted, air-to-water, and ground source systems. It references multiple regulatory matters (e.g., M06733, M08604) and evaluation reports related to residential programs and DSM (Demand Side Management) initiatives.

1 Response IR-02: 2 EfficiencyOne has historically included residential wood/pellet stoves and ETS units (since 2020) 3 through the Home Energy Assessment, and New Home Construction program components, 4 however wood/pellet stove and ETS s...

AI summary EfficiencyOne's Green Heat program component includes data on wood/pellet stove and ETS unit installations, with forecast and actual numbers referenced in tables citing specific matter numbers and documents. Data availability is highlighted for this program compared to others.

Installations Installations 2012 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2013 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2014 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2015 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2016 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2017 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2018 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2019 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2020 M09096 E-1(i) Appendix A Attachment 1...

AI summary EfficiencyOne (E1) responds to Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power) information requests regarding DSM evaluations and residential programs, referencing matters M09096, M10056, M10473, and M10569. Technical tables and reports from 2020 and 2021 are cited in the context of demand-side management program assessments.

e data provided in Figure 17: Residential Economic Drivers, under 25 the column heading “New Construction (number)” represents Nova Scotia housing 26 completions. 27 b) Please confirm if housing starts are considered in the model when ther...

AI summary The text requests clarification on whether housing starts are factored into models predicting residential housing completions and whether GDP/employment data are used in non-residential models, as part of a regulatory proceeding. It references Figure 17 and Section 4.3 of the application.

Document: 295519 (P-194) Date Filed: June 9/22 UARB (NSPI) Pg. 6 of 10 1 i. Please provide a copy of the data used in the mode and the source for driving 2 habits. 3 b) If residential sales are expected to be elevated due to increased work...

AI summary The UARB requests data on residential driving habits, expanded tables for PV impact and electrification forecasts, explanations for price elasticity choices, and reasons for declines in DSM savings forecasts. Requests focus on data transparency, methodological consistency, and alignment with Canadian standards in load forecasting.

Document: 295519 (P-194) Date Filed: June 9/22 UARB (NSPI) Pg. 7 of 10 1 Request IR-23: 2 With reference to Section 5.0 Residential Sector, the application discusses the model used to 3 determine the residential sales forecast. 4 a) Please...

AI summary The UARB requests clarifications on residential electricity sales forecasts, including rationale for excluding substitute prices, multi-unit housing trends, weather-adjusted sales metrics, COVID-19 impact variations, and EV penetration rate assumptions. These requests focus on forecasting methodologies, energy usage patterns, and affordability factors affecting residential sector projections.

he 2 regression? 3 i. Please provide the inflation adjustments used to convert to constant dollars. 4 j. Regarding economic forecasts, identify the scenario/case used for this analysis and the 5 reasons for choosing it. 6 k. Please indicat...

AI summary The regulatory body is requesting detailed information on inflation adjustments, economic forecasts, data sources, and customer heating trends from Nova Scotia Power. They seek specific data on residential and commercial end-use intensities, adjustments made to align with billing data, and forecasts related to heating and heat pump usage.

4. Number of customers using heat pumps for primary heating, 29 5. Number of customers using heat pumps for supplemental heating, 30 6. Number of customers using heat pumps for cooling, 31 7. Number of customers using oil for heating, 32 8...

AI summary The document requests data on customer heating technology adoption, including heat pump usage and other fuel sources, as well as projections for new customers from 2022 to 2032. It focuses on quantifying current and future heating technology distribution among customers.

Document #:296069 Date Filed: June 14, 2022 Synapse (NSPI) Page 4 of 16 1 c. Please provide supporting evidence for the 35 percent saturation of customers providing 2 their heat via heat pumps in 2022 (p.36). 3 d. Please provide the data s...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests from the Board to NSPI and E3 regarding heat pump saturation data, residential water heater efficiency standards, and electric vehicle load patterns. Requests focus on evidence, data sources, and impact analyses for heat pumps, water heating technologies, and EV integration into the grid.

Document #:296069 Date Filed: June 14, 2022 Synapse (NSPI) Page 6 of 16 1 Request IR-14: 2 Price Data (Section 4.5, pp 54-55) 3 a. Please provide the Fuel Stability Price Compliance document that is the basis for the 4 prices in Figure 35....

AI summary The document outlines information requests related to fuel price data, demand-side management (DSM) modeling, and residential sector adjustments. It seeks clarification on the basis for electricity price figures, DSM values in forecasts, statistical analysis for DSM coefficients, and annual SAE model adjustments for EVs and residential sectors.

is 27 forecast for each sector. 28 29 Request IR-17: 30 Residential Sector (Section 5) 31 a. Please provide the annual adjustments made to the SAE model for (1) EVs, (2) residential 32 solar and (3) new customers. 33 b. Please provide the...

AI summary The document requests detailed information on annual adjustments to the SAE model for residential sector components, including EVs, solar, and new customers, as well as the methodology and data sources for these adjustments and Figure 37 results.

at NS Power is aware of suggesting that 31 the higher number of new customers may relate to pandemic-driven migration patterns. 32 Please also elaborate on related discussion found on p. 61. 33 34 b. Does NS Power have reasons to expect th...

AI summary The text includes questions directed at NS Power regarding its forecasting models for residential and commercial customers, including factors like pandemic-driven migration, new construction efficiency, and population growth impacts. It requests explanations on how these variables are incorporated into the models.

he elasticity used in the SAE model to exclude elasticities calculated from non- winter peaking utilities or to apply elasticities from Canadian studies of Canadian electric utilities; - Evaluate the input variables in the residential mode...

AI summary The document outlines requests to refine modeling approaches for residential demand forecasting, including re-evaluating housing data, income metrics, and EV adoption rates. It emphasizes improving model accuracy through updated inputs, aligning with Statistics Canada data, and addressing infrastructure communication gaps.