Topic:"Residential Programs" in M12861

4.5.8 Commercial and Industrial Growth............................................................................................ 55 19 4.6 Price Data ..........................................................................................

AI summary The text outlines sections of a regulatory proceeding document covering topics such as commercial and industrial growth, price data, demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and sector-specific analyses (residential, commercial, industrial/municipal). It includes a date (May 15, 2026) and pagination details.

75. 24 25 New housing completions for both single-family and multi-unit buildings as forecast by Signal49 26 continue to be used directly in the residential customer forecast. Growth of new customers is 27 expected to remain positive but d...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report indicates that new housing completions are a key factor in forecasting residential customer growth, with housing data showing a strong correlation to customer count. Population growth is expected to slow after 2024, leading to a decrease in new customer additions over time.

1 Figure 18: Residential Economic Drivers New Household % % Year Construction Compensation Change Change (number) (mil $2002) 2016 3,468 17,118 2017 3,858 11.2 17,517 2.3 2018 4,214 9.2 18,036 3.0 2019 4,207 -0.2 18,061 0.1 2020 4,470 6.2...

AI summary The table presents residential economic drivers from 2016 to 2036, showing trends in new construction and household compensation. New construction numbers and compensation figures are provided with percentage changes over time, illustrating growth and fluctuations in residential economic factors.

6 Heat pump usage continues to grow in the province as more customers find heat pumps an efficient 7 way to heat and cool buildings as well as providing environmental and financial benefits. The end- 8 use model uses an estimated saturatio...

AI summary Heat pump usage in Nova Scotia is growing, but the forecast for 2026 shows a decline due to the closure of rebate programs. The number of installations is expected to drop by around 20% in 2026, followed by a gradual decline of 2.5% per year. Despite this, strong uptake is still anticipated, though at lower levels than in recent years.

0 56 44 71 3,232 87 283 2036 170,636 55 45 73 3,317 89 290 2 3 4.5.2 Hybrid Heating 4 Residential Hybrid Heating 5 6 Residential hybrid heating assumptions have been updated for the 2026 Load Forecast, consistent 7 with the Board’s 2025 Lo...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report updates residential hybrid heating assumptions, aligning with the 2025 Load Forecast Decision. The report includes a regression model that incorporates potential energy and peak reductions from hybrid programs, modeled by NS Power and used by a Department of Energy-led working group with Net Zero Atlantic and other stakeholders.

E3, including the impact to LDV load 16 and peak from both at-home and public charging (assumed to add 10 percent to annual energy and 17 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak based on the E3 load shapes). 18 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 46 of 105 REDACTED (C...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses the impact of light-duty vehicles (LDV) on energy load and peak demand, including both at-home and public charging scenarios. It assumes an increase of 10 percent in annual energy use and 0.2 kW/vehicle to peak demand based on E3 load shapes.

1 Programs, and small- to large-scale generation that is fed directly onto the grid via power purchase 2 agreements or direct utility ownership. 25 In the Load Forecast, only the small scale net metering 3 installations are considered, as...

AI summary The text discusses the 2025 Load Forecast for solar installations in Nova Scotia, noting discrepancies between forecasted and actual numbers. It highlights the impact of the Canada Greener Homes program ending in 2025 on residential installations and the continued growth of commercial installations due to incentives. The forecast projects 655 MW of installed capacity by 2036.

Page 51 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 PV and EV are modeled outside the regression but are estimated in the “Other” category below in 2 order to illustrate their impact relative to...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses the modeling of residential end-use intensities, including electric heating, cooling, water heating, lighting, and other appliances. PV and EV are modeled separately and included in the 'Other' category to illustrate their impact on overall load.

Page 64 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 44: Building Characteristics and Structural Index Year BSE Heat EIA BSE Heat NS Floor Area (m2) Structural Index (New England) 2026 0.94...

AI summary The text presents a 2026 Load Forecast Report, including figures and tables that outline building characteristics, structural indices, and residential energy forecast adjustments. It references a detailed breakdown in Appendix B and mentions NS Power's modelling for hybrid impact adjustments.

1 Figure 45: Residential Sales Components by Year Total DSM Regression Hybrid New Solar EV RTR DSM Total Res. captured Model Adjust. Year Output Cust. (GWh) Impact Impact Sales Adjust. Sales DSM by end (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) 3...

AI summary The table presents residential sales components by year, including total output, DSM, and other factors such as new customers, solar, EV, RTR, and adjustments. It shows projected changes in energy sales and DSM impacts from 2026 to 2034.

1 Report, 41 indicated that the average available DR capacity per controller during the utility winter 2 peak period is 385 W. Results indicated that capacity tends to be lower during the last hour of a 3 four-hour event. Results also indi...

AI summary The document discusses the performance of demand response (DR) programs, including the Eco Shift program, and the challenges faced during the 2023/2024 season due to defective controllers. It highlights the resumption of installations in 2024 and the capacity achieved during the 2024/2025 season. A two-phase pilot project for commercial and industrial load control is also mentioned.

(464) (217) Change -0.1% 6.6% 12.1% -6.9% -0.9% -0.3% -4.3% 6.2% to load Res Sales = Existing Customer + New Customer + EV + Solar + RTR + Hybrid + DSM Existing customer load is calculated as Res Average Use (10,377 kWh/customer in 2026, 1...

AI summary The text discusses the calculation of residential load, including existing customer load and various components like heat, cooling, and energy efficiency savings. It provides data on average residential use and input variables for 2026 and 2036, along with percentage changes.

. REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix E Page 7 of 21 EV Load • 2025 sales higher than forecast in spite of the cancellation of federal and provincial rebates (2,400 vs forecast of 1,700). • 75% ZE...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report highlights higher-than-expected EV sales in 2025 despite rebate cancellations, a lower ZEV target by 2035 compared to the 2025 forecast, and slower-than-expected uptake of behind-the-meter solar installations in 2025 due to the end of certain rebate programs.

ons incorporated into 2026 Load Forecast. Heat Pump Water Heaters Introduced as a separate End-Use in Residential model. RTR Delayed migration, changed class distribution. Peak Model Updated based on analysis of 2026 system peak (25th Janu...

AI summary The text discusses updates to the 2026 Load Forecast, including the incorporation of heat pump water heaters as a new end-use category in the residential model, changes to the RTR migration, and an updated peak model based on the 2026 system peak analysis. These updates are part of the 2026 Load Forecast Report, with attachments filed electronically.

2035 5,459.10 5,518.08 -58.98 2036 5,564.87 5,632.33 -67.46 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Attachment 4 Page 6 of 80 Residential Sales 5,800 5,600 5,400 G 5,200 W 5,000 h 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,...

AI summary The document presents a comparison of residential sales forecasts for 2035 and 2036, showing a slight decrease in forecasted values, with a graphical representation of peak demand and forecast trends.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Attachment 4 Page 27 of 80 Forecast With DSM Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Residential 563.7 510.2 475.9 352.5 280.0 228.7 257.2 248.5 225.9 279.2 359.2 519.8 4,301 ETS 49.6 46.9 4...

AI summary This table presents a forecast of residential load demand for 2026, including various programs such as ETS, Res CPP, and Res TOU, with monthly and total figures provided. The data includes the forecast with demand-side management (DSM) and highlights the total residential load demand for the year.

38.8 34.4 39.6 50.2 72.7 632 Residential Total 736.2 670.7 628.1 468.3 369.9 311.5 330.9 328.9 293.7 360.5 466.1 681.7 5,646.4 Small General 57.4 52.4 49.9 40.5 39.2 32.6 37.6 34.4 31.8 34.6 42.7 56.1 509 SG CPP 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0...

AI summary The text presents numerical data related to residential and commercial energy usage, including figures for different categories such as Small General, General Demand, and Large General. The data includes specific programs like SG CPP, SG TOU, GD CPP, GD TOU, and MURB, along with associated values over a period of time.

MOVED) REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Attachment 4 Page 77 of 80 Firm Peak End Use with DSM and DR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2026 2346.2 2262.8 1949.1 1534.6 1268.1 1197.0 1276.9 1312.5 1203.0 1295.8 1703.1 2...

AI summary The document presents a load forecast report with data on firm peak end use for the years 2026 to 2036, including demand-side management (DSM) and demand response (DR) considerations. It also includes a section with redacted information and a list of items, such as 'Yes 2000 Residential' and 'No 2001 ETS'.

1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Reference: Exhibit N-1, Section 4.5.2. 4 5 (a) Please provide a narrative description of each of the "potential hybrid programs 6 which have been modelled by NS Power." (p. 37) 7 8 (b) Please provide the modelling refer...

AI summary The document contains a request (IR-1) directed to NS Power, asking for detailed information on potential hybrid programs, modeling data, documents from a hybrid heating working group, details on heat pump systems, explanations for setting heat use to zero, and clarification on peak mitigation forecasts and energy reduction figures.

(c) Please refer to CA IR-1 part (f). Hybrid event trigger scenario Event hours 2035 11,939 12,015 -76 0.6 2,730 2,774 -44 1.6 2036 12,097 12,180 -83 0.7 2,765 2,813 -48 1.7 1 Request IR-7: 2 3 (a) How does participation in residential hyb...

AI summary The text discusses questions raised about residential hybrid heating participation, including how incentives and customer types affect participation and the confidence in forecasts. NS Power notes they are not proposing a hybrid heating program and are relying on the Hybrid Heating Study by Net Zero Atlantic (NZA) for insights, while acknowledging uncertainty in the forecasts.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 11 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Cust Count Change in Res Customers Population Change in Population Housing Completions Starts Household Size Year...

AI summary This table presents data on customer counts, population changes, housing completions, and household sizes from 2015 to 2036. It provides a detailed forecast for load demand, including trends in residential customers, population growth, and housing starts over time.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 12 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Cust Count Change in Res Customers Population Change in Population Housing Completions Starts Household Size Year...

AI summary The document presents a table showing historical data on customer count, population changes, housing completions, and household size from 2004 to 2007. The data is part of a 2026 Load Forecast Report and is used for analyzing trends in residential energy consumption.

REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-1 Attachment 1 Page 186 of 196 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Heat WaterHt Cooking Misc Lighting TV Dryer Refrig Freezer Dish Washer EV Total 2026 Residential End Use Peak Sha...

AI summary The document provides a table showing the residential end use peak shares for 2026 and 2035, with data on various categories such as heat, water heating, cooking, and electricity usage for EVs. It highlights the percentage contributions of each category to the total load and the changes between 2026 and 2035.

2026 Load Forecast Report (NSEB M12861) NSPI Responses to Synapse Energy Economics Inc. Information Requests 1 Request IR-5: 12 supplemental electric resistance heating; 13 14 (v) Number of customers using hybrid heat pumps, with a breakdo...

AI summary The document outlines information requests related to the 2026 Load Forecast Report, focusing on customer heating and cooling patterns, heat pump usage, and efficiency assumptions. Requests include data on customer heating fuel types, heat pump performance metrics, and key assumptions used in forecasting heat pump energy impacts.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 and collect heat pump and total house hourly load data, and measure heat-pump 25 (i) Refer to Attachment 1 of the Report, "calibration" tab, for the input heat pump 26 heating intensity per household ("HPHeat"). 27 28 (i...

AI summary The text discusses the methodology for collecting and analyzing heat pump and total house hourly load data, including calibration of heating and cooling intensities, and the use of efficiency data in forecasting models. It references attachments and figures within the report for detailed input data.

2026 Load Forecast Report Synapse IR-19 Attachment 1 Page 1 of 2 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) Year Actuals p10 p50 p90 7 8 (b) For the XCool variable please provide the underlying factors (penetration, usage, etc.) 9 driving...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report discusses heat pump (HP) share forecasts for heating and cooling, noting significant growth from 2026 to 2036. It also mentions that OtherUse variables remain stable over a 10-year period, with factors such as household size, price, seasonal use patterns, and employment compensation influencing these variables.

Forecast Load Forecast Report Year Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 1,310 1,384 1,849 1,860 1,655 2024 1,408 1,511 2,066 2,081 1,823 2025 1,506 1,639 2,271 2,289 1,988 2026 1,605 1,770 2,454 2,477 2,120 2027 1,705 1,899 2,636 2,665 2,240...

AI summary NS Power revised its residential heating intensity calculation method in 2023 by differentiating heat pump customers from others in the 'structural variations' adjustment. This adjustment has been part of NS Power's forecast for years, accounting for trends in increasing floor space and improved building shell efficiency. A manual adjustment has also been applied since 2018 to enhance the trend in residential building shell efficiency, though the reason for this adjustment is not documented.

nto the spreadsheet with no explanation. These two changes interact because it is unclear whether NS Power used a heating intensity enhancement, a heating intensity trend factor, or some other method. To summarize these changes, [Table 2](...

AI summary The document discusses changes in residential heating intensity for heat pump and non-heat pump customers, noting a shift in methodology and an increasing trend in heating intensity due to factors like larger floor space and comfort requirements.

Q: Has NS Power made any other major changes to the residential heating and cooling components of the load forecast? A: Yes. In the 2026 report, despite a substantial increase in the forecast for new housing construction, the number of hea...

AI summary NS Power has made changes to the residential heating and cooling components of the load forecast, with a decrease in heat pump installations in both new and existing housing in the 2026 report, despite increased forecasts for new housing construction.

3.2. Residential Sector The residential class represents about 46 percent of total load and is forecast using the SAE model described above. The model expresses residential average use as the sum of three end-use intensity terms — heating...

AI summary The residential sector accounts for 46% of total load and is forecasted using the SAE model, which includes factors like heating, cooling, and other uses, along with embedded DSM savings and a COVID variable. Electricity price has a modest influence with a −0.15 elasticity.

Relative to the 2025 forecast, growth in this year's residential forecast is flatter. In the 2025 forecast, modeled average use for existing customers rose by 5.8 percent over the forecast period, driven largely by heat pump electrificatio...

AI summary The residential electricity forecast for this year shows flatter growth compared to the 2025 forecast, with reduced heat pump adoption and the winding down of the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program. NS Power adjusted its housing completion forecasts based on Signal49's data, but the adjustment is viewed as somewhat arbitrary.

Residential NS Power's residential heat pump forecast distinguishes three categories of heat pump households: (1) all-electric (AE) households, with heat pumps and no backup heating; (2) non-all-electric standard (NAE Standard) households,...

AI summary NS Power's residential heat pump forecast categorizes households into three groups and assumes a 50% participation rate for hybrid programs. However, the analysis suggests that this participation rate should be phased in over several years and extended to existing systems, citing EfficiencyOne's experience with lower participation rates in similar programs.

Solar generation NS Power forecasts new PV generation separately from its SAE modeling. Solar generation can either be small-scale at the customer level, or larger utility-scale. The load forecast considers the customer-level impacts of di...

AI summary NS Power forecasts increased solar generation, but at a slower rate than previously projected, due to lower-than-expected installations and the removal of residential incentives. The load forecast includes a net reduction in residential and commercial energy demand. Solar coincidence factors are maintained from the 2025 forecast, pending updated data for the 2027 forecast.

Recommendations NS Power should evaluate why 2025 had lower-than-forecast residential solar installations to determine whether this was an anomaly or indicative of a broader trend. The incremental distributed solar growth rate forecast sho...

AI summary The text recommends that NS Power evaluate the lower-than-forecast residential solar installations in 2025 to determine if it is an anomaly or a broader trend. It also suggests using multiple years of historical data for more accurate solar growth rate forecasts and updating solar installation projections and coincidence factors.

1 c. Please explain how the "overall heating intensity" values in Figure 22 were 2 developed and how they relate to the HP Heat values shown in Figure 46. 3 d. Please provide any AMI, billing, or other empirical validation NS Power has 4 c...

AI summary The text requests an explanation of how 'overall heating intensity' values in Figure 22 were developed and their relationship to HP Heat values in Figure 46. It also asks for empirical validation of heat pump impacts and detailed data on residential heating technologies, customer numbers, and assumptions used in estimating heat pump energy and peak impacts.

Request IR-20: - Appendix B: Residential Model - a. For the XHeat variable please provide the underlying factors (penetration, usage, etc.) driving the change of percentage for HP Heat. - b. For the XCool variable please provide the underl...

AI summary Request IR-20 seeks clarification on the factors influencing changes in percentages for XHeat, XCool, and XOther variables within the Residential Model, focusing on penetration and usage factors.

1 (d) If hybrid heating does not achieve the forecast reductions, what is the quantified impact 2 on the Net System Requirement and system peak? Please provide the forecast with and 3 without hybrid heating for each year from 2028 to 2036....

AI summary The text requests an explanation of the average annual energy reduction from the modelled hybrid heating program and its impact on the Net System Requirement and system peak if the program does not achieve forecasted reductions. It also asks for comparisons of the 3,034 kWh reduction against residential consumption and heating usage, and whether NS Power agrees with the calculated values in Table 1.

5 Request IR-07: - 6 (a) How does participation in residential hybrid heating vary with incentives, customer type, 7 technological barriers etc.? If these have not been considered, how confident is NS Power 8 in the accuracy of the hybrid...

AI summary The document requests NS Power to explain how residential hybrid heating participation varies with incentives, customer types, and technological barriers, and how uncertainty in hybrid heating forecasts is incorporated into overall risk assessments.