N-8NSPI Letter update on IRP process
77 passages
take into account other factors such as access to economic energy, contribution to emissions reduction, and essential grid services (e.g. inertia, ramping, voltage support, frequency response, etc.). These other benefits will often outweig...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of considering factors beyond economic optimization when determining system capacity, such as emissions reduction and grid services. It highlights that excess capacity may be necessary for grid reliability and mentions the need to refine PRM calculations in the IRP based on resource mix changes.
g likely resource mix, NS Power will be able to establish a PRM value and/or methodology to use for system design for the coming years at the conclusion of the IRP. 3.2.2 Capacity Value of Renewables NS Power recognizes a key issue for con...
AI summary NS Power acknowledges the challenge of replacing firm capacity and grid services provided by coal units in Nova Scotia, particularly due to limited interconnection, lack of natural gas, and the mismatch between solar generation and winter peak demand. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will address these issues and establish a PRM value or methodology for system design.
12 of 487 with renewables have limitations due to the long duration requirements the storage would need to provide in order to ensure load would be served during the entire timeframe of the peak. In order to ensure the peak demands of the...
AI summary The text discusses the limitations of renewable energy with storage due to long duration requirements and emphasizes the importance of quantifying the contribution of each resource, particularly through the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) methodologies. These methods help determine the guaranteed capacity of renewable resources to ensure reliable system operation during peak demand periods.
al method for calculating the capacity value or ELCC of renewables. The results of these ELCC calculations are included in the Capacity Study (Attachment 17). 3.3 Supply Options Study (Attachment 18) In the Supply Options Study, E3 has con...
AI summary The document discusses the method for calculating the capacity value or ELCC of renewables, and the Supply Options Study conducted by E3, which includes cost estimates for new bulk grid supply options and projections from NS Power for existing units. It also highlights the need to consider essential grid services in the IRP Modeling phase due to the increasing availability of renewable energy.
will propose draft values for a “high” sensitivity case in the Assumptions Development phase and welcomes feedback on these assumptions. 3.4 Stability Study for Renewables Integration (Attachment 19) NS Power engaged a third-party expert,...
AI summary NS Power conducted a stability study to assess the integration of renewable energy, confirming that current wind capacity is manageable and identifying requirements for increasing wind/solar capacity. The study supports the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and outlines integration costs for future renewable scenarios.
ng capital costs incurred a range of 6.5% to 10.4% of total NPVRR costs in our main scenarios. It is critical to continue to assess the pattern of these costs and project future costs. 5. Establish requirements to allow increased levels of...
AI summary The text discusses the need to assess capital costs related to wind integration, establish requirements for increased wind on the NSPI system, and enhance coordination among Maritime Provinces for reliability. It also mentions the importance of evaluating technical improvements and the role of battery storage in supporting system stability.
ficer/Clerk Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor P.O. Box 1692, Unit “M” Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Re: NS Power 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – Pre-IRP Workshops In its letter dated October 5, 2018, the B...
AI summary The Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board directed NS Power to complete an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by mid-2020, including pre-IRP analyses. These analyses involve studies on loss of load expectation, resource options assumptions, demand response resource assumptions, and transmission requirements for increased renewables.
rehensive distribution system the groups and long-term GHG planning analysis Asset Valuation Planning Market Analysis Determines asset values from Develops and deploys proprietary Models wholesale energy markets multiple perspectives tools...
AI summary The text discusses asset valuation, long-term planning, and market analysis, emphasizing the use of proprietary tools and models to support resource planning and forecasting. It also highlights the integration of these analyses into broader market contexts.
California Case Study Pacific Northwest Case Study 80% Decarbonization Various Decarbonization Targets GW GW Source: E3 RESOLVE/RECAP IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 51 of 487 19 Attachment 4 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 20 of 34 Planning Reserv...
AI summary The text discusses the concept of Planning Reserve Margin (PRM), which is a convention used by utilities to maintain system reliability by holding resources above the forecasted median peak load. It outlines factors that influence PRM, such as unplanned outages and weather conditions, and notes that PRMs vary by utility.
20 Attachment 4 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 21 of 34 Renewable/Storage Contribution to PRM ¬ In systems with high penetrations of renewable energy and storage, utilities must still maintain acceptable reliability through a planning reserve...
AI summary This text discusses the importance of renewable energy and storage in contributing to the planning reserve margin (PRM) through effective load carrying capability (ELCC). ELCC measures how much of a perfect capacity can be replaced by renewables or storage while maintaining system reliability. Calculating ELCC requires complex models that account for the correlation and probability of production between load and renewables.
3,179 2,499 IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 62 of 487 30 Attachment 4 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 31 of 34 Key Nova Scotia Challenges Portfolio Optimization Firm Capacity Determining the optimal Maintaining portfolio of renewable, Renewab adequ...
AI summary The document outlines key challenges in Nova Scotia's energy sector, focusing on portfolio optimization and maintaining firm capacity. It highlights the need to balance renewable, hydro, storage, thermal, and demand-side resources while addressing limitations and potential coal retirements.
limitations of non- cost portfolio reflects this Demand- Thermal thermal resources Side Firm Fuel Renewable Integration Ensuring firm fuel for Given the limited electric new thermal resources interconnections with natural gas neighboring j...
AI summary The text discusses challenges related to ensuring firm fuel for new thermal resources in Nova Scotia, particularly due to limited natural gas pipeline capacity and the need to maintain grid stability with higher renewable energy penetration. It also includes contact information for Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3).
changes will be part of further discussion through development of the TOR and Analysis plan. Analysis Plan For example: Assumptions • Should IRP objectives move beyond “least cost NPV Revenue Modeling Requirement”? • How do we consider dec...
AI summary The text discusses the development of an Analysis Plan and TOR for an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), focusing on assumptions related to IRP objectives, decarbonization, and uncertainty. It also mentions essential grid and reliability services, particularly in the context of high renewable energy penetration.
9 ESSENTIAL GRID/ RELIABILITY SERVICES Essential Grid/Reliability Service Of particular importance in modeling scenarios with high penetration of renewables Resource Type Energy Firm Capacity Operating Reserves Inertia Frequency Response R...
AI summary The text emphasizes the importance of modeling scenarios with high renewable energy penetration and significant thermal generation retirements, focusing on the provision of essential grid/reliability services and their associated costs.
generation retirements is the provision of essential Combustion Turbine grid/reliability services (and the Hydro associated costs of obtaining them). Wind Solar NS Power will work with stakeholders through the Battery Storage Assumptions D...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of grid and reliability services, including combustion turbines, hydro, wind, solar, battery storage, and demand response, in maintaining a stable and reliable grid. NS Power plans to collaborate with stakeholders to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with these services.
– Storage – Demand Response IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 78 of 487 11 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 13 of 89 Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) ¬ Planning reserves are resources held by the utility above the forecasted median peak load...
AI summary The text discusses the concept of Planning Reserve Margin (PRM), which is a measure of the additional capacity a utility maintains above the forecasted median peak load to ensure reliability. PRM varies by utility and is typically between 12% and 20%, depending on system characteristics.
ty can MW generally maintain lower PRMs PRM • Islanded systems with limited interconnections and load and Traditional Generation resource diversity such as Hawaii must maintain a PRM Nameplate 1-in-2 Capacity around 40% Peak Step 1 Step 2...
AI summary The text discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its relevance to reliability standards, particularly in islanded systems with limited interconnections. It notes that systems like Hawaii must maintain a PRM of around 40% due to limited resource diversity and interconnections. The document also references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and its appendices.
12 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 14 of 89 Renewable/Storage Contribution to PRM ¬ In systems with high penetrations of renewable energy and storage, utilities must still maintain acceptable reliability through a planning reserve...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of renewable energy and storage in contributing to the planning reserve margin (PRM) through effective load carrying capability (ELCC). ELCC measures how much renewable or storage capacity can replace firm capacity while maintaining system reliability, with calculations requiring complex models.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 82 of 487 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 17 of 89 Overview of Jurisdictional Review ¬ E3 conducted a review of reliability standards and planning practices mainly across several North American electric...
AI summary E3 conducted a review of reliability standards and planning practices across North American electric jurisdictions, concluding that NSPI aligns with industry best practices. The review focused on reliability metrics, planning practices, and PRM conventions, with NSPI planning to a 1-day-in-10 year standard or 0.1 days/yr loss of load expectation (LOLE).
or 0.1 days/yr loss of load expectation (LOLE) IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 83 of 487
AI summary The text references a loss of load expectation (LOLE) of 0.1 days per year, as part of an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update appendix. This metric is used to assess system reliability and planning reserve margins.
16 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 18 of 89 Jurisdictional Summary Jurisdiction / Utility Reliability Metric Metric Value Notes 800 MWh/year AESO monitors capacity and can take action if modeled EUE exceeds threshold; 34% AESO EUE...
AI summary The document compares reliability metrics across various jurisdictions, focusing on LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) and PRM (Planning Reserve Margin) values. Nova Scotia's LOLE is set at 0.1 days/year with a 20% PRM to meet this standard, similar to other regions like ERCOT and NYISO.
LOLE is used to set capacity market demand curve; Minimum Installed Reserve Margin NYISO LOLE 0.1 days/year (IRM) is 16.8%; Achieved IRM in 2019 is 27.0% PacifiCorp N/A N/A 13% PRM selected by balancing cost and reliability; Meets 0.1 LOLE...
AI summary The text discusses various approaches to setting reliability standards and reserve margins in electricity systems, including the use of LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation), PRM (Planning Reserve Margin), and LOLH (Loss of Load Hours) across different regions such as NYISO, PJM, SPP, and others. These metrics are used to determine capacity market demand curves and ensure system reliability.
Ireland LOLH 8 hours/year total payments to generators (Net-CONE PRM) IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 84 of 487 17 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 19 of 89
AI summary The text includes a table with data on LOLH (Loss of Load Hours) and references to an IRP (Integrated Resource Plan) Update Appendix and Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables. These elements are related to energy planning and regulatory processes.
17 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 19 of 89 RECAP Model Overview & Assumptions IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 85 of 487 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 20 of 89 E3 Renewable Energy Capacity Planning Model (RECAP) ¬ RECAP is a...
AI summary The document introduces the RECAP model, a loss-of-load-probability (LOLP) model used for evaluating power system reliability in high renewable energy penetration scenarios. It was initially developed for the California ISO over a decade ago and has been adopted by various utilities and regulators across North America, including Nova Scotia Power.
19 RECAP: E3’s Renewable Energy Deliverables Page 21 of 89 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRPCapacity Planning Model ¬ RECAP is a loss-of-load probability (LOLP) model used to test the resource sufficiency of electricity system portfolios • This study...
AI summary The RECAP model is a loss-of-load probability (LOLP) model used to assess the sufficiency of electricity system portfolios. It uses a 1-day-in-10-year standard (0.1 days/yr LOLE) to determine the target PRM. The methodology involves calculating hourly load, renewable profiles, available dispatchable generation, hydro dispatch, transmission availability, storage dispatch, demand response, and loss of load.
212 Total 393 IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 92 of 487 25 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 27 of 89 Transmission Lines ¬ No internal transmission constraints assumed within Nova Scotia ¬ Maritime Link • Day time capacity of 153 MW star...
AI summary The text discusses transmission line capacities and fuel supply considerations in Nova Scotia, including the Maritime Link's transmission lines and the potential challenges of accessing firm natural gas during winter peak electricity events.
PRM ¬ Access to firm natural gas fuel supply during winter peak electricity events could be challenging to NSPI if new capacity is added which would further constrain gas pipeline import capacity ¬ Various options for firm fuel supply exis...
AI summary The document discusses challenges related to accessing firm natural gas fuel supply during winter peak electricity events, especially if new capacity is added, which could further constrain gas pipeline import capacity. It also outlines various options for firm fuel supply and mentions that more information will be provided as the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) progresses. Reliability metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Load Hours (LOLH), and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) are presented for NSPI in 2020.
MWh/yr 49 7.6 Normalized EUE % of annual load 0.0005% 0.00008% 1-in-2 Peak Load MW 2,070 2,070 PRM Requirement % of peak 21.0% 17.8% ¬ High Operating Reserve Requirement Case: 100 MW operating reserve requirement in all hours, approximatel...
AI summary The document discusses two operating reserve requirement cases: a high case requiring 100 MW (5% of NSPI’s peak load) and a low case requiring 33 MW (1.5% of NSPI’s peak load). Operating reserves are critical for maintaining grid reliability and responding to unexpected conditions.
29 Load and Resource Balance Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 31 of 89 High Operating Reserve Requirement Case
AI summary This section discusses the High Operating Reserve Requirement Case, which is part of the Load and Resource Balance section in the Pre-IRP Deliverables. It outlines the need for maintaining a high level of operating reserve to ensure system reliability.
37 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 39 of 89 Conclusions ¬ NSPI requires a 17.8% - 21.0% PRM to maintain a 0.1 days/yr loss of load expectation (LOLE) target • Dependent upon the specific portfolio ¬ Dispatch-limited resources such...
AI summary The text discusses the need for a 17.8% - 21.0% PRM (Planning Reserve Margin) to maintain a 0.1 days/yr loss of load expectation (LOLE) target, highlighting the diminishing returns of dispatch-limited resources like wind, solar, and demand response in contributing to ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capability). It also notes the variability in reliability metrics and the limitations of using LOLE as a sole measure of system reliability.
l and high-renewable systems with equivalent LOLE, the high-renewable systems tend to have more severe (higher magnitude) events • This is due to variability in renewable resource availability ¬ While LOLE is the most common reliability me...
AI summary The text discusses the reliability of high-renewable energy systems, noting that while they have equivalent LOLE metrics, they tend to have more severe reliability events due to variability in renewable resource availability. It also mentions the use of the RECAP model to evaluate resource adequacy through time-sequential simulations, calculating metrics like LOLP and LOLE.
usands of • LOLP: Loss of Load Probability years of plausible load, renewable, hydro, • LOLE: Loss of Load Expectation and stochastic forced outage conditions • EUE: Expected Unserved Energy • ELCC: Effective Load-Carrying • Captures therm...
AI summary The text describes a model used for capacity planning, including metrics like LOLE, LOLP, EUE, and ELCC, which evaluate system reliability and renewable resource capacity. It also references the E3 RECAP model and an IRP Update Appendix.
175 235 16 600 600 51 188 264 25 700 700 58 201 293 34 800 800 65 214 323 43 900 900 73 227 352 52 1,000 1,000 80 240 381 61 IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 121 of 487 54 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 56 of 89 Nova Scotia Reliability...
AI summary The document discusses reliability metrics, including LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) and reserve margin standards, with a 20% planning reserve margin required to meet the LOLE standard. It also references the use of the PASA module of PLEXOS for loss of load modeling and mentions the accounting of reserve margin for both dispatchable resources and load.
t of System Adequacy (PASA) module of PLEXOS IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 122 of 487 55 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 57 of 89 SPP Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ LOLE: 0.1 days/year ▪ Net...
AI summary The document discusses system adequacy metrics, including LOLE and PRM, and outlines reserve margin accounting methods for both resource and load considerations. It references the use of the PASA module of PLEXOS and mentions GridView and SERVM for loss of load modeling.
56 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 58 of 89 MISO Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ LOLE: 0.1 days/year ▪ UCAP: Capacity de-rated for forced outages ▪ ICAP: Installed capacity Reserve Margin...
AI summary The document discusses reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting for MISO and ERCOT, including LOLE, PRM, UCAP, and ICAP, as well as load modeling and reserve margin calculations for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
57 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 59 of 89 ERCOT Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ No explicit standard ▪ Dispatchable units are counted by seasonal net sustained capacity Reserve Margin ▪...
AI summary The document discusses reserve margin accounting practices in ERCOT, including how different types of resources are counted and de-rated based on seasonal capacity contributions. It also references a study on market equilibrium and economically optimal reserve margins, as well as the use of SERVM for loss of load modeling.
58 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 60 of 89 NYISO Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ LOLE: 0.1 days/year ▪ IRM based on installed nameplate capacity – UCAP requirement is based on capacity Re...
AI summary The text discusses reserve margin accounting and reliability metrics used by NYISO and ISO-NE, including LOLE, IRM, and methods for calculating reserve margins based on installed capacity and demand curves. It also references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and related modeling tools like GE-MARS.
59 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 61 of 89 ISO-NE Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ LOLE: Demand Curve ▪ Dispatchable resources counted at – 0.2 days/year installed nameplate capacity – 0.1...
AI summary The document discusses reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting practices, including LOLE thresholds, reserve margin percentages, and how different resources are counted. It references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions energy efficiency and behind-the-meter PV as factors in load modeling.
▪ Operating reserves are included IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 127 of 487 60 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 62 of 89 PJM Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ LOLE: 0.1 events/year ▪ Dispatchable...
AI summary The text discusses reserve margin accounting and reliability metrics used by PJM and CAISO, including LOLE, IRM, and PRISM. It outlines how dispatchable units and renewable ICAP are calculated, as well as the use of probabilistic reliability models.
61 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 63 of 89 CAISO Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ No explicit reliability standard ▪ Monthly Net Qualifying Capacity (NQC) to calculate total available capa...
AI summary The document outlines reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting practices for CAISO and AESO. CAISO uses the Resource Adequacy (RA) program with a 15% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and calculates renewable energy capacity using the SERVM model and RECAP. AESO has a reliability standard of 800 MWh/year Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) but does not specify reserve margin accounting for resources.
chment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 64 of 89 AESO Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ EUE: 800 MWh/year; NormEUE: 0.0014% ▪ N/A Reserve Margin ▪ Publishes quarterly reports monitoring the existing and...
AI summary The document compares reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting approaches between AESO and Florida. AESO uses EUE and reserve margin thresholds, while Florida uses LOLE and a 15% reserve margin planning criterion. Both entities are developing methods to assess system reliability and capacity.
65 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 67 of 89 Australia Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin Accounting – Resource ▪ Expected Unserved Energy (EUE): ▪ N/A 0.002% of total energy demand – Standard is set based on the eco...
AI summary The text discusses reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting in Australia and Great Britain. Australia uses Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) with a standard of 0.002% of total energy demand, while Great Britain uses Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) with a standard of 3 hours/year. Australia does not have an explicit reserve margin requirement, whereas Great Britain accounts for generator availability in reserve margin calculations.
tional Grid estimated LOLE during availability for each technology (e.g. CCGT 2017/2018 winter is 0.001 hours/year = 85%) of nameplate ▪ Standard is set based on economic optimum Reserve Margin Reserve Margin Accounting – Load ▪ No require...
AI summary The document discusses the calculation of LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) during the 2017/2018 winter, estimating it at 0.001 hours/year. It also mentions the standard for reserve margin being based on economic optimum and the de-rated capacity margin monitored in 2021 and 2018. The document references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and includes an attachment related to pre-IRP deliverables.
67 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 69 of 89 The Republic of Ireland Reliability Metric(s) and Standard Reserve Margin ▪ LOLE: 8 hours/year ▪ LOLE standard is used to determine a ▪ Standard is set based on economic MW capacity requ...
AI summary The document outlines reliability metrics and reserve margin accounting practices in the Republic of Ireland, including the use of LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) as a standard to determine capacity requirements and payments to generators. Dispatchable and renewable units are de-rated for forced outage rates (FOR) in capacity calculations.
OVERVIEW & DISCUSSION IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 141 of 487 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 76 of 89 {E3 SLIDES (AT TACHMENT 18)} IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 142 of 487 Attachment 5 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 77 of 89 RENEWABLES S...
AI summary The document discusses a System Stability Study for Renewables Integration (SSRI) conducted by Power System Consultants (PSC) on behalf of NS Power to assess the impact of additional renewable energy integration on the power system.
dy for Renewables Integration (SSRI) Power System Consultants (PSC) were contracted by NS Power to complete a System Stability Study associated with additional levels of Renewable Energy Integration. The primary objective, to assess the in...
AI summary Power System Consultants (PSC) were contracted by NS Power to conduct a System Stability Study for Renewables Integration (SSRI), aiming to assess the integration of increased renewable generation levels in Nova Scotia. The study evaluated the system's capacity to handle up to 600MW of inverter-based generation, explored the impact of adding a second 345kv transmission tie to New Brunswick, and considered alternative system upgrades like synchronous generators and large-scale batteries.
ick in service • Calculate short circuit ratios • Assess potential renewable enabling solutions using large scale batteries and synchronous generators PSC’s international experience with South Australia and Ireland was reviewed for ANALYSI...
AI summary The text discusses lessons learned from South Australia's experience with renewable energy integration, including challenges with low system inertia and a major blackout in 2016 caused by transmission interconnector interruptions during an extreme weather event. It highlights the importance of assessing renewable enabling solutions and calculating regulation reserves using historical wind generation profiles.
rators caused by transmission interconnector interruptions during an extreme weather event • 850,000 customers lost supply; 90% restored in 8 hours, remainder within approximately 2 weeks Load shedding is used in both the South Australia a...
AI summary The document discusses system stability in Nova Scotia with varying levels of renewable generation, noting that 600MW of inverter-based renewable generation can be accommodated if three thermal units are maintained. Up to 1000MW may be installed with a second tie to New Brunswick. The loss of this tie is identified as the most significant contingency affecting system stability.
• The loss of the tie to New Brunswick is the most significant contingency FOR IRP impacting system stability and associated planning and operational actions. SCENARIOS • Other renewable enabling technologies such as large scale batteries...
AI summary The loss of the tie to New Brunswick is a major contingency impacting system stability. Alternative solutions like large-scale batteries and synchronous condensers can help manage inverter-based generation but do not fully eliminate reliability issues. The second tie may change the need for minimum online thermal units, and grid code revisions are seen as a potential solution for system stability.
Scenario Development Study Demand Response Analysis Plan Assumptions Stability Study for Assumptions Renewables Integration Modeling E1 Potential Study Analysis/Conclusions Report IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 158 of 487 Attachment 6 - Pre-IR...
AI summary The document outlines the integration of a stability study for renewables into the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). NSP and consultants are developing a methodology to estimate integration costs of additional wind based on stability issues and potential solutions. This includes defining specific increments of wind capacity beyond 1000 MW and associated interconnection requirements for stakeholder review.
th nameplate capacity (Slide 21). Effective capacity changes on slide 23. Please explain. How does RECAP account for the need to “recharge” energy storage capacity and potential loss of availability? Based on changes to weather patterns in...
AI summary The text includes questions about the RECAP model's assumptions, ELCC calculations, PRM and LOLE targets in the IRP, and the potential impact of new federal clean fuel standards on IRP modelling. These questions focus on technical aspects of energy planning and regulatory considerations.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 187 of 487 Attachment 14 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 2 of 7 7KHSODQQLQJUHVHUYHPDUJLQ 350 QHFHVVDU\WRPDLQWDLQDJLYHQOHYHORIUHOLDELOLW\LVDIXQFWLRQRI DQXPEHURIUHVRXUFHDQGV\VWHPYDULDEOHVWKDW...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its role in maintaining system reliability as part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process. It suggests that a single PRM value may not be appropriate across different resource scenarios and recommends using more conservative PRM values. It also notes the need for clarity in the definition of 'operating reserves' under the Electricity Efficiency and Conservation Act (E3).
Executive Summary of resource adequacy is an important goal for utilities seeking to provide both reliable and affordable service to their customers. NSPI currently plans to meet a 1-day-in-10-year reliability target, meaning that not more...
AI summary The document discusses resource adequacy planning for Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI), emphasizing the importance of meeting a 1-day-in-10-year reliability target. The study uses E3’s Renewable Energy Capacity Planning (RECAP) model to assess the system's resource adequacy, aligning with industry best practices and incorporating dispatch-limited resources such as wind, solar, and demand response.
ectricity sector by incorporating the unique characteristics of dispatch-limited resources such as wind, solar, hydro, battery storage, and demand response into the traditional reliability framework. RECAP calculates reliability metrics by...
AI summary The document discusses the use of RECAP to calculate reliability metrics for the electricity sector, incorporating dispatch-limited resources like wind, solar, hydro, battery storage, and demand response. It also highlights a key finding that NSPI should maintain a planning reserve margin (PRM) between 17.8% and 21.0% to meet a 0.1 days/year loss of load expectation (LOLE) target.
ng reserves that should be held above the forecasted annual peak load, calculated as a % of annual peak « Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) of dispatch-limited resources o The expected contribution toward the planning reserve requi...
AI summary The text discusses resource adequacy and reliability in electric power systems, focusing on the importance of maintaining an appropriate planning reserve margin and the factors that influence system reliability, including load characteristics and resource availability.
nt production of renewable resources. Ensuring an appropriate level of resource adequacy is an important goal for utilities seeking to provide both reliable and affordable service to their customers. The reliability of a utility can be mea...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of resource adequacy for utilities in providing reliable and affordable service. It explains how reliability is measured through metrics like loss of load events and highlights that there is no single standard for resource adequacy across North America, with various entities setting their own conventions.
Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 15 of 85 Table 1: Common Reliability Metrics Acronym Name Unit Definition and Comments LOLP Loss of % The probability in a given time period that load + reserves exceeds Load available generation....
AI summary The text introduces common reliability metrics used in electricity systems, specifically focusing on Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). LOLP measures the probability of load exceeding available generation, while LOLE estimates the expected number of days per year when load exceeds generation.
ge number of days per year where load + Load reserves exceeds available generating capacity at least once during Expectation the day. This is the most common metric that is used to evaluate resource adequacy across North America. However,...
AI summary The text discusses metrics used to evaluate resource adequacy in the electricity sector, including Load Expectation, Expected Unserved Energy (EUE), and Loss of Load Hours (LOLH). These metrics help assess the reliability of the power system by quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and duration of load shortages.
h a reliability metric and target value and then calculate what quantity of planning reserve are required to achieve that reliability target. Figure 1: Planning Reserve Margin Calculation Process 1. Establish 2. LOLP 3. Calculate Reliabili...
AI summary The document outlines the process of calculating the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) using reliability metrics such as Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) models. These models help determine the necessary reserve capacity to meet reliability targets, accounting for unexpected outages and extreme conditions like cold weather in Nova Scotia.
Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 17 of 85 « Unplanned forced generator outages « Higher than normal peak loads (i.e. very cold weather in Nova Scotia) « Operating reserve requirements The PRM is a convention that is typically base...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its calculation, noting that it is typically based on a comparison of installed generation capacity to the 1-in-2 median peak load. NSPI uses a winter day with -15°C temperatures for forecasting, which approximates this median peak load. PRM requirements vary among utilities depending on system size and diversity.
ishing returns and needs a resource that can shift its production to the highest value hours, i.e. hours with the highest LOLP which are generally the peak net load hours. 1.5 Jurisdictional Review This report conducts a jurisdictional rev...
AI summary The report reviews resource adequacy and reliability practices across various jurisdictions, noting that the LOLE with a 1-day-in-10-years standard is commonly used, aligning with Nova Scotia’s current reliability target. Some jurisdictions use EUE or LOLH instead. Reliability targets are achieved through mechanisms such as an explicit PRM or a capacity market.
ion’s subsection. For the jurisdictions with an LOLE reliability standard, achievement of the target reliability standard varies between two primary mechanisms: an explicit PRM and a capacity market. For jurisdictions with an explicit PRM,...
AI summary The text discusses how jurisdictions with an LOLE reliability standard achieve their targets through mechanisms like explicit PRM and capacity markets. Nova Scotia Power uses LOLP modeling to determine PRM, while capacity markets use LOLP modeling to construct capacity demand curves and determine market clearing prices.
rately falls to reflect the lower value of this incremental reliability contribution. Table 2 contains a high-level summary of the target reliability metric for each of the evaluated jurisdictions. Table 2: Jurisdictional Summary of Resour...
AI summary The document discusses resource adequacy planning across various jurisdictions, highlighting different reliability metrics such as EUE, PRM, LOLE, and others. Nova Scotia's target is a 20% PRM to achieve a 0.1 LOLE standard.
pendix 1 Page 223 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 26 of 85 Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study, which is part of the pre-Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) deliverables. This study is critical for assessing the adequacy of generation capacity and ensuring system reliability.
NYISO LOLE 0.1 days/year LOLE is used to set capacity market demand curve; Minimum Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) is 16.8%; Achieved IRM in 2019 is 27.0% PacifiCorp N/A N/A 13% PRM selected by balancing cost and reliability; Meets 0.1 LOLE...
AI summary The text compares reliability metrics and reserve margin targets across various electricity systems, including LOLE, EUE, LOLH, and PRM, highlighting how different regions use these metrics to ensure system reliability and manage capacity markets.
ced outages of dispatchable generation. Renewable credit is established by an ELCC study and currently stands at 15.2% for wind and 50% for solar. 1.5.3 ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS (ERCOT) The Electric Reliability Council of Texa...
AI summary The text discusses the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and its approach to reliability and reserve margins in a deregulated energy market. It outlines the expected market equilibrium reserve margin, economically optimal reserve margin, and a purely informational reserve margin, none of which directly influence the actual reserve margin achieved.
tically regulators could intervene if a study determined that the energy-only framework was not going to yield and acceptable level of reliability. 1.5.4 NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR (NYISO) The New York Independent System Operator...
AI summary The text discusses reliability metrics and reserve margin calculations used by various ISOs, including NYISO and ISO-NE, to ensure system reliability. It highlights the use of LOLE targets, demand curves, and performance-based qualification of renewable energy resources.
IRP Update Appendix 1 Page 226 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 29 of 85 1.5.6 HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC (OAHU) Hawaiian Electric is an investor owned utility that serves multiple Hawaiian islands, including Oahu. Due to the relati...
AI summary The text discusses the reliability planning approaches of Hawaiian Electric, PJM, and CAISO. Hawaiian Electric maintains a 45% planning reserve margin to meet a 0.22 days/year LOLE standard on Oahu. PJM uses a 0.1 days/year LOLE standard and an installed reserve margin of 16.0% for 2019/2020. CAISO applies a 15% PRM monthly, with renewables counted via ELCC methodology.
years. PacifiCorp is able to maintain a PRM on the low end of the most similar utilities due to their significant interconnection ties with other entities in the Pacific Northwest. 1.5.11 AUSTRALIA The Australian Energy Market Operator (AE...
AI summary The text discusses resource adequacy practices in various regions, including the use of reliability targets and reserve margin metrics. It highlights differences in approaches, such as Australia's EUE metric and Great Britain's LOLH standard, and notes the absence of explicit PRM requirements in some jurisdictions. The section concludes with a heading indicating a focus on Nova Scotia's resource adequacy.
ity to account for forced outages and renewable units are subject to de-rating factors to account for their limited availability (Wind = 10.3% and Solar = 5.5%) 1.6 Resource Adequacy in Nova Scotia Nova Scotia is a member of the Northeast...
AI summary Nova Scotia adheres to resource adequacy standards set by the NPCC and NERC, requiring a 0.1 days/year LOLE standard. NSPI confirms that a 20% PRM is necessary to meet this standard, as demonstrated in a 2014 study.
nd Capacity Value Study As described in Section 1.1, this study provides an update of the required PRM and confirms that a PRM of at least 20% is necessary to meet a target LOLE of 0.1 days/year. As a vertically integrated utility, NSPI is...
AI summary This study updates the required Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) to ensure a target Loss of Load Events (LOLE) of 0.1 days per year. Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) is responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that meets system needs, including the PRM, and submitting it to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB). The study uses E3’s Renewable Energy Capacity Planning (RECAP) model to assess resource adequacy.
extensively to test the resource adequacy of electric systems across the North American continent, including California, Hawaii, Canada, the Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest, Texas, and Florida. RECAP was developed specifically to addr...
AI summary The text discusses the use of RECAP, a tool for evaluating resource adequacy in electric systems across North America, and mentions its application in planning reserve margin and capacity value studies. RECAP incorporates dispatch-limited resources and generates reliability metrics for utility planning.
date Appendix 1 Page 231 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 34 of 85 Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study RECAP calculates these metrics through by simulating the electric system with a specific set of generating...
AI summary The document describes the RECAP model, which uses Monte-Carlo time-sequential simulations to calculate reliability metrics such as LOLE and target PRM. The model considers various factors including load, weather, renewable generation, and resource availability to provide robust reliability statistics.
Appendix 1 Page 244 of 487 Attachment 17 - Pre-IRP Deliverables Page 47 of 85 Figure 17: Example Storage Dispatch During Sample Week After storage has been dispatched, demand response is dispatched if load + operating reserves still exceed...
AI summary The text discusses how demand response is used as a last-resort resource in the RECAP model, with limitations on the frequency and duration of customer participation. The model calculates reliability statistics such as LOLE, LOLH, LOLEV, and EUE after dispatching all resources to meet load and operating reserves.
Party Question/Comment & Response 2.1 Bates White ...we recommend that NSPI apply more conservative – i.e., lower – PRM values in its IRP evaluations… It is our view that the IRP process should be focused on ways to minimize the costs impo...
AI summary Bates White recommends NSPI use lower PRM values in its IRP to minimize customer costs and avoid excess capacity risks. NS Power responds that lower PRM may not reduce costs due to factors like emissions constraints, citing Synapse GUO modeling showing optimal portfolios often include excess capacity for economic or emissions benefits.
r representation of the most stressed transfer levels, which would illustrate the most critical system states to examine for stability purposes. These would be the most likely cases to identify system issues in order to define the appropri...
AI summary The document discusses the results of a PSC study on wind penetration scenarios and system stability. It confirms that wind penetration beyond 1,000 MW was tested and highlights instability at 1,050 MW. The study did not identify new reliability constraints but provided guidance for monitoring as renewables increase.
quivalent resource) may be required to fulfil other system requirements. This is described in the below excerpt from Section 7 of the PSC report (emphasis added): “The study established that while Nova Scotia is connected to New Brunswick,...
AI summary The text discusses the need for thermal units in Nova Scotia's power system, even with the addition of a second tie to New Brunswick. It emphasizes the importance of balancing services, load following, and local voltage control provided by thermal units, regardless of the second tie option.
N-9-(i)Appendices A-N
207 passages
.......................................................................... 2 1 Background........................................................................................................11 1.1 Nova Scotia Policy Landscape .............
AI summary The document outlines a study analyzing Nova Scotia's greenhouse gas emissions and energy demand using the PATHWAYS model. It covers policy context, methodology, scenario analysis, and results on emissions reduction, energy demand, and biofuel usage, concluding with implications for climate and energy strategies.
n the electricity sector, as well as by enabling complementary reductions in buildings and transportation from electrification. Over the last decade, the electricity sector in Nova Scotia has reduced emissions by more than 30% relative to...
AI summary Nova Scotia's electricity sector reduced emissions by 30% since 2005 through renewable energy adoption. Continued integration of low-carbon resources like wind and hydro is needed to maintain this progress while ensuring reliability and affordability. NSPI must meet growing energy demand without increasing carbon emissions.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 15 of 64 infrastructure and initiatives needed to achieve those targets, and developing a strategy to support those markets. 5. Building electrification is dependent on reducing costs and...
AI summary The report emphasizes the need for infrastructure and strategies to achieve decarbonization targets, highlighting building electrification's dependence on cost reductions and incentives. It notes the importance of cold climate heat pumps, their high upfront costs, and the need for government or NSPI support. Peak electricity demand impacts from electric heating and an alternative low-carbon biofuels scenario are also discussed.
IRP Final Report Appendix A Page 51 of 64 efficiency of the heat pump technology (Figure 24). The Moderate Electrification case could generate a smaller peak impact of between 155 MW and 552 MW. This analysis shows the impact of heat pump...
AI summary The analysis explores the impact of heat pump electrification on peak electricity loads in Nova Scotia, estimating a potential increase of 155 MW to 552 MW. It highlights the need for further investigation into peaking capacity requirements and reliability impacts, while suggesting mitigation strategies such as ground source heat pumps and hybrid systems with existing thermal backup sources.
el costs. E3 will undertake a more detailed review of costs in Phase 2 of this analysis. Electricity Sector Modeling: This study did not perform detailed dispatch or capacity expansion modeling. Efforts to more completely characterize po...
AI summary The analysis highlights the need for more detailed electricity sector modeling, including dispatch and capacity expansion, to assess impacts on peak load and grid reliability. It also emphasizes the importance of evaluating consumer adoption of low-carbon technologies and the technical feasibility of integrating these technologies into the grid.
$1,000 $500 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 47 of 112 2020 IRP: PLANNING RESERVE MARGIN MARCH 11, 2020 2020 IRP FINAL ASS...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power engaged E3 to conduct a Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and capacity value study, updating assumptions for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process. The study ensures resource adequacy, reliability, and affordability of power supply by evaluating load characteristics and resource availability.
en calculate what quantity of planning reserves are required to achieve that reliability target. Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study, Energy + Environmental Economics, July 2019 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 47 Nova Scotia Po...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) required by Nova Scotia Power to achieve a 0.1 days/year loss of load expectation (LOLE) target. It states that a PRM range of 17.8% to 21.0% is needed, with 20% being the base case assumption.
will maintain its existing PRM of 20% as the base case assumption and iterate on portfolios to determine specific PRM requirements as illustrated in the Analysis Plan overview. 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 48 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power will maintain a 20% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) as the base case assumption in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The PRM will be calculated using the Unforced Capacity (UCAP) method, and Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) will be used for valuing thermal, hydro, and renewable resources. The Reliability and Operability Assessment phase will ensure a 0.1 Days/year Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) metric is met.
RP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 106 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix B Page 108 of 112 SUMMARY (CONT.) • For IRP modeling, assumptions about cost and operational constraints to address these services will be considered. The assumptions...
AI summary The document outlines assumptions for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling, focusing on grid services required to accommodate inverter-based generation. Key grid services include ramping reserve, system strength, Volt-Ampere-Reactive support, and synchronous inertia. These will be modeled as dynamic constraints to ensure stable system operation with renewable resources.
essential grid services will be represented in the model as dynamic constraints, which will enable the model to integrate renewable resources at any level by ensuring provision of the services. 2020 IRP FINAL ASSUMPTIONS SET 108 Nova Scoti...
AI summary The document discusses the need for additional ramping and regulation reserves due to increased variability from renewable energy and coal unit retirements. It references a stability study that outlines the relationship between inverter-based generation and ramping reserve requirements, and presents an interconnection option to support renewable integration.
criteria against which potential plans and resource portfolios will evaluated under each scenario, as shown in Table 6 below: Metric Description Minimization of the cumulative present value of 25 year NPV Revenue Requirement the annual rev...
AI summary The document outlines criteria for evaluating potential plans and resource portfolios under different scenarios, including minimizing revenue requirements, reliability requirements, grid services, plan robustness, emissions reduction, and flexibility. These metrics are detailed in Table 6.
l revenue requirements 25 year NPV Revenue Requirement over the planning horizon (with and without end-effects adjustment) Average Annual Relative Rate Impact - 25-yr Magnitude and timing of electricity rate effects 10 year NPV Revenue Req...
AI summary The text outlines various criteria for evaluating electricity plans, including revenue requirements, reliability requirements, grid services, plan robustness, emissions reductions, and flexibility. These factors are analyzed over different planning horizons and involve quantitative and qualitative assessments.
ffects ($MM) $16,431 Essential Grid Services • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,805 Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2035 • Regional Integration: n/a Average Annual Relative Rate Impact...
AI summary The document outlines key metrics from Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including financial effects, CO2 emissions, and scenario evaluations. It highlights the Essential Grid Services, Resource Adequacy, and Plan Robustness, while noting non-compliance with the Sustainable Development Goals Act and increased exposure to natural gas prices.
10 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix E Page 12 of 72 2.0A LOW ELEC. / BASE DSM / NET ZERO 2050 / CURRENT LANDSCAPE 11 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix E Page 13 of 72 2.0A LOW ELEC. / BASE DSM / NET ZERO 2050 / CURRENT...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation from Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report, including net present value of resource requirements (NPVRR), reliability tie construction, CO2 emissions, and grid service considerations over a 25-year period.
21 of 72 2.1C M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / N E T Z E R O 2 0 5 0 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,983 General Notes • Reliability Tie built in 2031 (earlier than previous runs)...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation for a 25-year Net Present Value Rate of Return (NPVRR) of $12,983 MM, with adjustments for end effects and considerations for reliability, resource adequacy, and emissions reduction targets under the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It includes details on coal unit retirements, grid services, and CO2 emissions.
72 3.1C M I D E L E C . / B A S E D S M / A C C E L . N E T Z E R O 2 0 4 5 / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,576 General Notes • 1 coal to gas conversion in 2030 • Regional Intercon...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation data for two different Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) scenarios, focusing on Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR), CO2 emissions, and grid reliability. Key elements include coal-to-gas conversion, regional interconnection, and solar energy deployment.
28 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix E Page 30 of 72 3.2B HIGH ELEC. / MAX DSM / ACCEL. NET ZERO 2045 / DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES 29 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix E Page 31 of 72 3.2B HIGH ELEC. / MAX DSM / ACCEL. NET Z...
AI summary This section presents the financial and environmental metrics for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) under the HIGH ELEC. / MAX DSM / ACCEL. NET ZERO 2045 / DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES scenario. It includes Net Present Value of Resource Recovery (NPVRR), carbon emissions, and reliability considerations such as the Reliability Tie and Regional Integration.
e time periods Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $7,470 $7,179 • No change relative to 3.1C Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2029 Average Annual Relative Rate Impact • Regional Integration: 2030 2021-2030 (%) 1.9% 1.5% 20...
AI summary The document outlines essential grid services and resource adequacy considerations, including a 10-year NPVRR, reliability tie in 2029, and regional integration by 2030. It also compares new installed capacity under the 2.1C.WIND-1 scenario, with a focus on low wind cost assumptions and net-zero 2050 goals.
2021-2030 (%) 0.7% 0.8% • NPVRR is reduced relative to 3.1C in two of three metrics, slightly higher in 10-yr NPV due 2021-2045 (%) 0.7% 0.8% to advancement of investment Essential Grid Services Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 26.8 41.8...
AI summary The text discusses CO2 emissions projections and grid reliability considerations under different scenarios, including the impact of wind energy on grid inertia and the need for flexibility in energy imports. It also references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions reliability tie and regional integration timelines.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,901 $12,983 General Notes • Inertia constraint is lowered from base of 3266 MW.sec to 2200 MW.sec in all hours • Slight change to wind profile build is observed: •...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation results for a 25-year and 10-year NPVRR under a sensitivity scenario and base scenario (2.1C). Key changes include adjustments to inertia constraints, wind profile builds, and the timing of the Reliability Tie and wind build. The analysis indicates minimal impact on overall resource plan optimization.
overall resource plan optimization 2021-2030 (%) 0.7% 0.8% • Cost differences are small over all three NPV metrics 2021-2045 (%) 0.8% 0.8% Essential Grid Services • Current studies indicate that 2200MW.sec of online kinetic inertia is not...
AI summary The document discusses the optimization of the resource plan from 2021 to 2045, highlighting small cost differences across NPV metrics and the need for additional stability studies due to insufficient kinetic inertia. It also mentions CO2 emissions and reliability tie and regional integration timelines.
ent and replacement energy costs, NPVs incorporating MT/ST Production 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,996 $7,022 Costs are not significantly lower than the base scenario 2.1C Essential Grid Services • This run is intended as a test case to understand...
AI summary The text discusses the financial and environmental impacts of different energy scenarios, including NPVRR, CO2 emissions, and grid reliability considerations. It highlights the importance of grid services, reliability tie, and regional integration in managing wind energy penetration and ensuring system flexibility.
system stability studies for the 2021-2045 (%) 0.8% 0.8% Western region of Nova Scotia due to changes in essential grid service provision; cost of any mitigation not included in decommissioning NPV Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 42.7 4...
AI summary The document outlines system stability studies and CO2 emissions projections for Nova Scotia from 2021 to 2045, highlighting the impact of changes in essential grid service provision and the role of hydro assets in ensuring reliability and reducing fuel price volatility.
• No change relative to 2.1C 2021-2030 (%) 1.1% 0.8% 2021-2045 (%) 0.8% 0.8% Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2024 Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 43.5 41.8 • Regional Integration: 2026 Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 35.1...
AI summary The document presents comparative data on CO2 emissions and resource adequacy for different timeframes and scenarios, including a reliability tie in 2024 and regional integration in 2026. It also includes a comparison of new installed capacity in 2045 under the 2.1C scenario.
25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,361 $12,983 General Notes • High case is modeled as a +50% increase in annual Sustaining Capital estimates for all thermal steam units (gas and coal) • Reliability Tie is built 6 years earlier and Regional Interconnec...
AI summary The document presents financial and environmental impacts of different scenarios for a 25-year and 10-year period, including changes in capital estimates, retirements of gas and coal units, and the impact on CO2 emissions. These scenarios involve adjustments to infrastructure timelines and resource replacements, affecting NPVRR and emissions outcomes.
e Impact 2021-2030 (%) 1.1% 0.8% Essential Grid Services 2021-2045 (%) 1.1% 0.8% • No significant change from 2.1C Resource Adequacy & PRM Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 41.8 41.8 • Reliability Tie: 2029 Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (...
AI summary The document outlines CO2 emissions projections for Nova Scotia Power from 2021 to 2045, showing minimal changes in emissions and grid reliability. It also includes release notes for data tables related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling results from PLEXOS simulations.
hen calculate what quantity of planning reserve are required to achieve that reliability target. Planning Reserve Margin and Capacity Value Study, Energy + Environmental Economics, July 2019 2020 IRP ASSUMPTIONS SET 46 PLANNING RESERVE MAR...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) and its role in achieving a reliability target of 0.1 days/year loss of load expectation (LOLE). Nova Scotia Power proposes maintaining a 20% PRM as the base case and iterating on portfolios to determine specific PRM requirements.
eves NSPI has not fully incorporated our request to study alternative, lower costs of capital and if the use of such enables Nova Scotia to decarbonize quicker than using NSPI’s ownership assumptions. Paul Chernick, President of Resource I...
AI summary The document discusses concerns regarding NSPI's approach to incorporating alternative, lower costs of capital and its impact on decarbonization. It also highlights issues with the inequitable treatment of renewable generation's ELCC and suggests financial benefits for ratepayers through the sale of surplus environmental attributes to other sectors.
raints. AREA requests that NSPI consider modelling additional decarbonization efforts in each scenario and at what price other sectors would need to pay NSPI to affect such additional decarbonization. Alternative Resource Energy Authority,...
AI summary The Alternative Resource Energy Authority (AREA) requests that Nova Scotia Power (NSPI) consider additional decarbonization efforts in each scenario and the cost implications for other sectors. The document references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and discusses ELCC assumptions based on studies by E3, including the impact of wind energy on the planning reserve margin.
c project, which used load and wind forecasting and aggregation capabilities to perform near real-time load shifting of commercial and residential loads and provide new ancillary services to the grid. Electrification of Nova Scotia’s space...
AI summary The text discusses strategies for integrating renewable energy into Nova Scotia’s grid, including demand response frameworks, electrification of heating and transportation, and curtailment of surplus wind and solar generation. These strategies aim to reduce integration costs and support the Province's net zero GHG emissions goal by 2050.
generation that can’t be integrated into the NS Power system or for which there isn’t sufficient export capacity to produce hydrogen can be another element of a wind and solar integration strategy. (4) hydro imports offer a relatively high...
AI summary The text discusses the potential for hydro imports via the Maritime Link to assist with wind and solar integration in the NS Power system. It highlights the flexibility of hydro imports and the regulation capacity provided by the Maritime Link, which can help offset generation/load imbalances caused by rapid changes in wind and solar output.
• Capacity factors for each of the hydro resources during winter peak hours (hours with any LOLP) in each of the last several years • Effect of the 2016 drought (or other hydrological events) on effective hydro capacity over long winter pe...
AI summary The text requests information on hydro resource capacity factors during winter peak hours, the impact of the 2016 drought on hydro capacity, and the historical frequency of droughts affecting Nova Scotia hydro capacity.
On behalf of the Consumer Advocate, Resource Insight would like to submit some additional comments on the draft analysis plan. Previously, we suggested including resiliency testing related to a major natural disaster. We have reflected on...
AI summary The Consumer Advocate, through Resource Insight, suggests adding a section to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to assess the impact of extreme natural disasters on Nova Scotia’s energy infrastructure, considering scenarios like sea level rise and category 5 hurricanes, and evaluating potential damage to thermal, hydro, solar, and wind facilities, as well as transmission and distribution systems.
Digby Submissions February 14, 2020 Page 2 of 62 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 143 of 321 The ability of the utility system to accommodate renewable energy technologies is very much driven by the degree of variability...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges of integrating renewable energy into the utility system due to variability and the need for reliability and voltage control. It highlights the potential of energy storage and smart grid technologies to address these issues, while noting the regulatory constraints and the need for future voltage regulation changes.
for the Municipality of the District of Digby Sigma Energy Storage Inc. November 2018 - CONFIDENTIAL page 35 (up to 1079 tonne/year) Clean Microgrid Eco Industrial Reduction Fossil LCOE: 7.2 ¢/kWh 38 person per with Biomass CHP Park fuel c...
AI summary The document outlines a clean microgrid project with a biomass combined heat and power (CHP) system for the Municipality of the District of Digby, proposing reductions in fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, along with potential economic benefits for the municipality and Nova Scotia.
1 IV. Provision of essential grid services for system stability and reliability (slide four, row four) 2 E1 recommends the following: 3 • all CRPs that do not meet requirements for essential grid services be eliminated at the 4 reliability...
AI summary E1 recommends eliminating CRPs that fail to meet essential grid service requirements during reliability screenings and incorporating integration costs into the IRP NPV. EfficiencyOne questions how robustness is measured and suggests combining it with the 25-year NPV metric. They also recommend quantifying total emissions per CRP and clearly defining metrics for other emissions types.
Envigour Memo Februray 18, 2020 Page 10 of 13 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 248 of 321 recognition that energy consumers and citizens first value the fundamental integrity of their energy delivery systems: safe, reliab...
AI summary The text emphasizes the importance of safe, reliable, and affordable energy systems while highlighting the need for communities to prioritize local environmental and social issues. It advocates for technological change guided by performance standards and price signals rather than specific technologies, allowing communities to choose solutions that best fit their unique conditions.
can offer improved prospects for civil dialogue and more stable conditions for change. Smart Energy Communities, by definition, spend less time shouting at each other and more on building the future. 6) Restoring public trust and confidenc...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of restoring public trust in decision-making institutions through inclusive processes and highlights the challenges and changes in the power grid due to climate events, technological advancements, and the need for local resilience and GHG emission reductions.
ys to generate and manage energy at the local level - digitization, automation • A global drive to reduce GHG emissions • Local revenue generation and energy cost security and stability Communities have new energy solutions available to th...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of new energy solutions on communities and the challenges faced by energy service providers and system operators. It highlights changes in business models, customer relationships, and grid management due to advancements in local energy generation and distribution.
dition, modularity in design (i.e., using several smaller units versus one larger unit) and equipment selection allows for built- in redundancy and the ability to operate over a wider range, depending on the system’s intended use. 1. Synch...
AI summary The document discusses the technical and performance specifications of Hydrostor’s A-CAES (Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage) system, including response times for charge and discharge, and its similarity to natural gas–fired facilities. It also touches on the concept of synchronous inertia and its role in grid frequency stability.
model to integrate renewable resources at any level by ensuring provision of the services. 2 Page Natural Forces Memo February 14, 2020 Page 2 of 4 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix H Page 271 of 321 We suggest inclusion of VAR s...
AI summary The document suggests reconsidering the inclusion of VAR support as a binding constraint in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) model, noting that it can often be resolved with low-cost solutions. It also highlights concerns about using the Stability Study for determining grid service requirements due to its focus on extreme scenarios rather than normal conditions.
es has also been very successful (e.g. demand side contribution to short-term operating reserves has been very successful. This can also offset or contribute to ramping requirements.). We would welcome further information on the assumption...
AI summary The text discusses the success of demand side management in contributing to short-term operating reserves and the importance of interconnector treatment in the IRP modelling. It requests further information on assumptions regarding grid service capabilities and interconnector flows, highlighting their impact on grid reliability and renewable energy integration.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 6. Planning CA Use longer averaging period for TUC DAFOR (7 years vs 3) To avoid subjectivity, NS Power selected a three year Reserve Margin (Chernick & average for all units in ord...
AI summary The document discusses assumptions related to reserve margin planning and the use of different methods for calculating Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) and Installed Capacity (ICAP) for various types of generation. NS Power responds to recommendations regarding the averaging period for TUC DAFOR and the treatment of non-thermal generation in ELCC calculations.
at reliability obligations (i.e. 0.1 Adjustments; ICAP method results in a PRM of 20%; UCAP days/year LOLE) are maintained in all years of the plan; method results in a PRM of 7%to 9%. Dynamic under will iterate if required. capacity expan...
AI summary The text discusses planning reserve margin assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including reliability obligations, capacity expansion strategies, and the need to revisit hydro ELCC assumptions. It also references a request to make numerical values from Figure 27 visible.
10. Imports CA Reflect correlation of temperature & load (NL, NS & NB) This type of granularity is not included in NS Power’s long (Chernick & and availability /cost of imports. term planning model. Wilson) 10. Imports CA Potential cost of...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of imports on Nova Scotia Power's planning model, including the correlation of temperature and load, potential costs of new transmission, the significance of an 800 MW tie line, and the assumption that imports may underestimate emissions from New Brunswick. Reliability and operability screening is also mentioned as part of the process.
Category Participant Assumption Comment NS Power Response 14. Renewable Natural Setting required minimum levels for remaining NS Power agrees that these more detailed wind Integration Forces requirements important - synchronous inertia int...
AI summary Natural Forces argue that renewable integration requirements should consider synchronous inertia based on the largest system infeed/outfeed, but NS Power finds it difficult to model this in the IRP and will use static values. They also note that the PSC Stability study models specific contingencies, but additional analyses will be done during the Reliability and Operability phases.
during the Reliability and Operability assessment phases of the IRP modeling plan. 14. Renewable Natural Proposed grid service level limits should be low rather NS Power agrees; resource portfolios with high levels of Integration Forces th...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of considering grid service level limits and the flexibility of renewable resources during the Reliability and Operability assessment phases of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling plan. NS Power agrees with the approach and emphasizes the need to analyze variable generation's contribution to ancillary services and grid reliability.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response 1.2 Analysis Plan CA - Resource Insight Revise to bill effects metric (customers more NS Power will use the 10-year NPV Evaluation Criteria concerned about bills than rates): evaluation criteria as...
AI summary The document discusses revisions to evaluation criteria for resource planning, emphasizing the importance of billing effects over rate effects and ensuring that reliability requirements are met. NS Power agrees to use a 10-year NPV evaluation method and will not consider plans that fail to meet reliability standards.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response 3.1 Screening Dalhousie Need to show how grid resiliency modelled in Applicable reliability targets will be met by Reliability scenarios viable resource portfolios. Transmission & Distribution cons...
AI summary The document discusses grid resiliency modeling and reliability targets, noting that the IRP model does not account for location-specific storm hardening. It also addresses the evaluation of resource strategies under the Comparator case, with NS Power arguing that non-compliance with the SDGA makes additional strategies unnecessary.
ar NPV Revenue Requirement annual revenue requirements over the planning horizon (adjusted for end-effects) Magnitude and timing of electricity rate effects 10 year NPV Revenue Requirement Reliability requirements for supply adequacy Evalu...
AI summary This document outlines the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) interim modeling progress and includes participant comments and responses from Nova Scotia Power. It discusses reliability requirements, plan robustness, greenhouse gas reduction, and flexibility in decision-making.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix I Page 26 of 44 Comments on Interim Modeling Progress Page 5 of 6 Flexible solar (e.g., solar that is curtailed in advance in order to provide upward dispatch flexibility in addition to downward...
AI summary The document discusses the potential of flexible solar and advanced wind/solar technologies to provide operational reserves and system inertia, which could be less expensive than peaker units. It also highlights concerns about wind and solar being screened out in initial capacity expansion modeling due to low assumed capacity benefits, requesting explicit tracking of this issue during evaluations.
discussion, we received some assurance that NS Power will be sensitive to this point during the evaluation. We request that this issue be explicitly tracked and documented as the evaluation proceeds. 4. ELCC for other units. During discuss...
AI summary The discussion highlights concerns regarding NS Power's handling of ELCC values and the use of DAFOR in modeling. There is a request for NS Power to share assumptions and use a longer averaging period for DAFOR to ensure realistic modeling and avoid unnecessary capacity acquisitions.
owth rate, would return to the low adjusted to moderate the original steep ramp up forecast in roughly 2026. A 10% drop in annual energy in in electrification over the first 10 years of the 2020 would require a 2% per year growth rate to r...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of energy demand changes on peak demand forecasts and resource planning, referencing the Sustainable Development Goals Act (SDGA) and the PATHWAYS study. It suggests that without changes to load forecasts, resource portfolios may not align with future demand and recommends a more expansive response from NS Power to address potential recessions.
removal of the anomalously high DAFOR for TUC1 in 2016. These updated DAFOR forecasts were used in the reliability/operability study using E3s RECAP tool, which evaluate the required Planning Reserve Margin to meet the reliability standard...
AI summary The text discusses the removal of an anomalously high DAFOR for TUC1 in 2016 and the use of updated DAFOR forecasts in a reliability/operability study using the E3s RECAP tool. It also addresses modeling assumptions for inertia constraints, including how different resources contribute to meeting these constraints and any operational restrictions.
Thank you for a very informative report and presentation on July 9th. We appreciate the opportunity to comment on the results so far. Our comments below are divided into three sections. First, we request some further documentation or poten...
AI summary The comment requests further documentation or modification of methods, suggests enhancements to scenarios, and highlights key pre-2030 decisions related to the IRP, including coal unit retirements, wind energy expansion, and inter-provincial reliability tie planning. The commenter encourages thorough analysis and possible delays in the IRP process.
Wind costs and constraints: NS Power’s assumptions and modeling methods may be unreasonably constraining near-term wind builds in the model. The issues relate to NSP’s cost assumptions for wind and the reliability constraints imposed durin...
AI summary The analysis questions NS Power's assumptions and modeling methods regarding wind energy costs and reliability constraints. It argues that NS Power's 2019 capital cost of $2,100 per kW is higher than market rates and that the cap on wind build at 100 MW may be overly restrictive. Alternative operational responses are suggested to accommodate additional wind capacity.
operational responses to accommodate additional wind. First, under hourly conditions of high wind and high imports without the reliability tie, wind generation could be capped at 700 MW. Second, under conditions of high wind, a minimum con...
AI summary The text discusses potential operational responses to accommodate additional wind generation, including capping wind generation at 700 MW during high wind and high import conditions, and establishing a minimum conventional capacity requirement during high wind hours. NS Power may model these constraints in its planning models or estimate curtailment costs exogenously.
commitment to deal with extreme conditions, and the cost of those actions, and use that cost in lieu of the reliability-tie cost. The combination of the cost assumption and reliability requirements may be resulting in misleading model resu...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding the modeling assumptions in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), particularly around the reliability tie and wind energy development. It highlights potential misleading results due to cost assumptions and reliability requirements, and raises policy questions about when wind should be built relative to operational constraints. The IRP process is criticized for not adequately addressing these issues.
would not appear to be held in reserve as is Wreck Cove. We also understand their capacity and energy output to be limited in low-water years. Why would these units merit a 95% ELCC value? John D. Wilson and Paul Chernick • Resource Insigh...
AI summary The document provides a technical review of Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan, focusing on grid reliability and stability, and comments on the PSC Renewable Integration report. It highlights concerns about the modeling of grid services and the representation of renewable energy integration.
r synchronous condensers per 1 MW of wind diverges significantly from current industry practices on evaluating and mitigating grid strength. Identification and Explanation of Findings Case Selection & Clarity Case 1: The contingency event...
AI summary The document discusses the evaluation of grid strength in the context of synchronous condensers and wind power, highlighting discrepancies in industry practices. It identifies a case involving the simultaneous loss of two AC ties (N-2), which deviates from standard N-1 planning criteria. A remedial action scheme is noted to prevent the loss of both AC links, but the contingency event requires clarification and consistency across simulations.
oss of a single tie to New Brunswick...” The contingency event involving the AC lines to New Brunswick should be clarified, assessed for validity, and held consistent across all cases and simulations. Case 1: At the time of event, the powe...
AI summary The document discusses a contingency event involving the loss of AC connections to New Brunswick and the impact on grid stability. It highlights the importance of understanding the initial power flow conditions, the behavior of the HVDC link, and the absence of the Wreck Cove Hydro unit, which could have increased system inertia and stability.
of 245 Nova Scotia IRP Review a stabilizing and economic plant like Wreck Cove (or if Wreck Cove was not available, some thermal capacity) was not committed. Case 2: The contingency evaluated was the loss of 1 of 2 poles of Maritime HVDC l...
AI summary The document evaluates different contingency cases in the Nova Scotia Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), focusing on the impact of losing capacity from the Maritime HVDC link and the implications of high imports from New Brunswick during high wind events. It questions the validity of selected cases and suggests operational strategies that prioritize local generation.
ind and low load conditions and appears overly challenging to system operations. Reduced imports via utilization of generation within Nova Scotia would likely be the most prudent operational strategy. Probability of Occurrence of Scenarios...
AI summary The text discusses the operational strategy of Nova Scotia Power (NSP) during low load conditions and the importance of understanding the frequency and duration of specific grid conditions to evaluate mitigation strategies. It highlights the need for context on how often these conditions occur and their impact on economic cost/benefit analyses.
3 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 124 of 245 Nova Scotia IRP Review Frequency Stability & Inertia Requirements Existing System (Section 5.1) Case 1: This case is key because it was used to determine the 2766 MW-s inertia...
AI summary The document discusses frequency stability and inertia requirements in the existing and modified power systems. Case 1 is highlighted for determining inertia minimums, while Case 4 suggests potential improvements in system stability through better voltage regulation. Case 3 simulation fails due to non-convergence, leaving conclusions uncertain.
d to indicate if additional checks were performed to try to confirm that the result was indeed due to an infeasible operating condition. Therefore it is difficult to draw a defendable conclusion here. Case 4: Additional wind was added by b...
AI summary The text discusses issues with a case involving the addition of wind power and the tripping of AC ties, leading to load-shedding stages. It highlights concerns about the contingency being an N-2 event and the lack of defined acceptable load shedding levels. The analysis of a system with an additional 345kV line is noted as not being thoroughly scrutinized due to unresolved questions in the base case.
4 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 125 of 245 Nova Scotia IRP Review System with Synchronous Condenser and BESS (Section 5.3) This section was not given a high level of scrutiny at this time because the base cases (covere...
AI summary The proposed mitigations of a 200 MVA synchronous condenser and a 200 MW BESS were not sufficiently justified due to lack of performance criteria and analysis. The analysis also overlooked the potential of Wreck Cove Hydro, a large and flexible hydro asset, to address load shedding and grid-strength concerns.
ncil of Texas (ERCOT) has been requiring this functionality for many nears from its wind turbine fleet. ● Utilization of under-frequency FFR from wind power plants that are curtailed. This functionality enables wind turbines which have alr...
AI summary The text discusses various methods for providing frequency response in power systems, including under-frequency FFR from wind power plants, demand-side resources, and the potential impact of the Wreck Cove Hydro Plant on system stability. These approaches are informed by practices in ERCOT and highlight the importance of integrating diverse resources for grid reliability.
have a substantial impact on the stability of the power system. Its status and utilization in the study work should be made explicit because of its potential importance to the system. Short-Circuit Strength Short-circuit strength was only...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of short-circuit strength and power quality in grid stability, noting that short-circuit strength was only discussed qualitatively and that NSP's use of a ratio method for synchronous condensers is not industry-accepted. It also mentions that power quality is typically an application-specific issue, not a systemic one.
t of long-range planning efforts. While it’s correct that weak grids can exacerbate the problem, it often is in conjunction with resonances on the system, for instance due to long, high-voltage cable. Regulation Reserve It is unclear why P...
AI summary The document discusses the relevance of regulation reserves in the context of Nova Scotia's power system, noting that while regulation reserves are necessary for system stability, their inclusion in the PSC analysis may be questionable given the timeframe and the interconnected nature of Nova Scotia's grid with New Brunswick.
atively small, will not influence the PSC stability analysis, and will have a relatively small effect on the IRP modeling. It should be given lower priority than the other stability analysis comments. Curtailment The second phase of the st...
AI summary The text discusses the limited impact of small-scale curtailment on PSC stability and IRP modeling. It highlights that while curtailment of wind energy may occur due to load or export limits, it can be economically beneficial and used for fast frequency response during system events.
storage, will in fact, enable more, cost effective wind energy to be integrated to the grid without significantly more infrastructure investment. Some of these additional benefits are outlined below. Wind Integration in NSPI’s IRP At the J...
AI summary The document discusses the integration of wind energy into the Nova Scotia electricity system, referencing the PSC study and the inertia constraint required for system stability. It highlights the increase in inertia threshold from 2,766 MW.sec to 3,266 MW.sec to account for potential losses, and notes a stakeholder's concern regarding the stringency of this threshold.
CanREA Memo July 17, 2020 Page 2 of 5 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 132 of 245 Recognizing the Contribution that Wind can Play in Reducing Inertia Requirements In response to a question by Dan Roscoe regarding this sli...
AI summary The document discusses the contribution of wind energy in providing synthetic inertia, specifically Fast Frequency Response (FFR), and how this differs from synchronous inertia. CanREA highlights that this topic is being addressed by the Offshore Energy Research Association (OERA) on behalf of the Nova Scotia Department of Energy and Mines.
urisdictions on the role that existing non- synchronous/inverter-based resources such as wind can play in providing frequency response services and by so doing reduce Nova Scotia’s inertia constraint. CanREA agrees that FFR and synchronous...
AI summary CanREA agrees that FFR and synchronous inertia are distinct services but highlights that FFR can help mitigate reduced synchronous inertia's effects on frequency control. This is supported by AEMO's findings, suggesting that FFR can allow meeting frequency standards with less synchronous inertia, applicable to Nova Scotia as well.
f FFR by inverter-based generating resources and energy storage can play a significant role in helping to meet Nova Scotia’s system reliability needs in the context of diminishing synchronous inertia. In a recent report from the US Nationa...
AI summary The text discusses the role of inverter-based generating resources and energy storage in providing frequency response and system reliability, referencing studies from NREL and examples from ERCOT and FERC. It also notes that CanREA members are considering whether obligations for FFR and primary frequency response should be placed on non-synchronous resources in Nova Scotia.
ductions in costs to customers. In fact, this is likely to be a primary objective of placing such an obligation on these resources – the added benefit of enhanced decarbonization should also be noted. As the slide from the July 9th Present...
AI summary CanREA highlights the potential for additional wind integration in Nova Scotia without major infrastructure investment if new and existing wind projects are required to provide FFR. This could enhance decarbonization and should be considered in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The IRP process is critical for informing policymakers on renewable procurement targets.
ration scenarios. If it were available, it is not clear that, if presented with a zero emissions case in the study window, the model might well choose it over gas generation with carbon sequestration. In addition, there is a risk that plan...
AI summary The text discusses the potential risks associated with natural gas generation in the context of emissions and climate goals. It highlights that natural gas may carry a higher carbon emissions factor due to upstream fugitive methane emissions, and that current emissions factors may not fully account for these risks. There is concern that relying on natural gas could become the most cost-effective response to declining GHG levels, despite its environmental impact.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 159 of 245 Page 2 within various scenarios increase the demand for natural gas given the intermittent nature of more renewables. At least one Combined Cycle (“CC”) gas unit has been select...
AI summary The document discusses the increased demand for natural gas due to the intermittent nature of renewables, the continued use of aging liquid-fueled combustion turbines, and reliability concerns related to fuel supply for these units. Heritage Gas has provided infrastructure to support NSPI, and the model scenarios include the use of these units until 2045.
hen the units are more likely to be called upon. Availability of fuel supply has decreased following the closure of local refineries. Reliability issues associated with maintaining units out to their 2 Page 16 – IRP Modeling Results Worksh...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of aging power generation units and decreased fuel supply on reliability, as well as the potential increase in peak load due to electrification and its implications for transmission and distribution costs. Heritage Gas notes that these issues were not previously considered in Integrated Resource Plans.
ling Results Release (p.5) or indicate where they are publicly available. 2 System Inertia NS Power 2020 IRP 8 The table includes Lingan 2 as providing an inertia contribution though Clarify the inertia contribution of Lingan 2 prior to an...
AI summary The text discusses the inertia contribution of Lingan 2 and the carbon costs associated with diesel CTs in the NS Power 2020 IRP. It requests clarification on the inertia contribution of Lingan 2 before and after replacement by the Maritime Link and asks for the carbon costs used in the analysis of diesel CTs.
portantly, we believe this approach to be fundamentally flawed and biased towards less renewables and higher costs. PSC study The 700 MW “limit” on installed capacity is derived from the PSC study 1. As we noted before, the PSC study analy...
AI summary The text criticizes the PSC study's 700 MW capacity limit, arguing it is biased towards less renewables and higher costs. It explains that the study examined stressed system conditions, including a 600 MW wind generation finding, but cautions against extrapolating these results to normal conditions.
ld be a more effective remedy; reduction of the import level has the double benefit of creating more space for conventional generation, while at the same time reducing the severity of the contingency. In effect, wind is being limited in or...
AI summary The text discusses the operational limitations of wind capacity in stressed system conditions and suggests that reducing import levels could be a more effective remedy. It emphasizes that wind curtailment is a common practice in systems with renewable energy ambitions, particularly during rare instances when high wind output coincides with stressed system conditions.
ating the problems. 3 In fact evidence suggests that there is a positive correlation between wind output and demand, reducing the likelihood of occurrences of high wind output at time of low demand. 3 Page Natural Forces Memo July 17, 2020...
AI summary The document discusses the unpredictability of stressful events in power systems, particularly the loss of the AC intertie, and highlights that while such events are unpredictable, the system conditions under which they occur are predictable. Mitigation strategies such as curtailment of wind or imports are recommended. International practice supports curtailment of wind output during high wind and stressed system conditions.
he amount of wind which can be installed to the amount of wind output that the system can safely accommodate in the most stressful system conditions would, quite frankly, not even enter consideration. To take Ireland as an example; both Ir...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges of integrating high levels of wind energy into the power system, using Ireland as an example. It highlights how Ireland accommodates up to 70% wind output during peak times, despite limitations on installed capacity. It also references the Synchronous Inertial Response (SIR) requirement in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) model, based on a PSC study with a safety margin.
e of 2,766 MW-sec from the PSC study is from Case 01 (revised), which had three thermal generation units on-line. However the PSC report also notes that the system would be stable with only two units. It is also worth noting once more, tha...
AI summary The PSC study indicates that the Nova Scotia system can remain stable with fewer SIR requirements if the AC intertie is not in service or operating at lower levels. Case 2 of the study shows stability with only 1,788 MW-sec of SIR when the AC intertie is out of service, suggesting that the high SIR requirement is tied to the contingency of high import levels on the AC intertie.
th as a contingency event. If the AC intertie were in service but at a lower MW level, the results would be at least as good, or indeed better. In summary, in relation to the minimum SIR requirement: The minimum level of 3,266 MW is not...
AI summary The text discusses the minimum SIR requirement, suggesting it may be overly conservative based on the PSC and IRP studies, and notes that lower import levels on the AC intertie would reduce the SIR requirement. It also highlights significant and prolonged changes in demand projections due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which differ from recovery timelines in other countries.
ough there are no firm import arrangements (interconnector flows follow the market). This approach significantly reduces the generation installed capacity requirement in each system, and in aggregate. Emulated or Synthetic inertia The poin...
AI summary The document discusses the lack of firm import arrangements and the impact of HVDC interconnectors and RES on providing synthetic inertia. It highlights the potential future significance of developments in this area. The SBA participated in an IRP stakeholder meeting and provided comments on modeling results.
I. Modeling Questions, Concerns and Suggestions a. System Inertia-Based Generation Requirements: Since the system inertia requirement is a constraint in the modeling, the Company should provide more analysis and detail supporting the assum...
AI summary The text raises modeling concerns regarding system inertia-based generation requirements, requesting more detailed analysis from the Company on assumptions, alternatives to generation, and limitations of the reliability tie's inertia benefits. It also asks for additional analysis on minimum inertia requirements under varying system conditions.
of this requirement and provide additional insight on the inertial need over time as load, DSM, and supply-side portfolio mix changes. Since ascribing this benefit of providing all the inertia requirements is uncertain and very valuable to...
AI summary The text discusses the need for additional insight into the inertial requirements over time as load, demand-side management (DSM), and supply-side portfolio mix change. It also requests a sensitivity analysis if the inertia benefits of the tie are substantially lower than assumed.
• Provide information regarding whether the battery+ synchronous condenser option for system inertia would also provide system capacity. b. Reliability Tie and Regional Integration -Treatment of risk: The Reliability Tie and Regional inter...
AI summary The text addresses questions regarding the system inertia provided by a battery+synchronous condenser option, the risks and studies required for reliability tie and regional integration, and the inclusion of offshore wind in the renewable resource portfolio. It emphasizes the need for cost-benefit analysis and planning flexibility.
s The following are comments from the Verschuren Centre for Sustainability in Energy and the Environment regarding the Initial Modeling results of the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. Stranded Assets It seems counterintuitive that in modelin...
AI summary The Verschuren Centre for Sustainability in Energy and the Environment questions the modeling of stranded assets and the exclusion of inertia contributions from wind energy and energy storage in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. They argue that fossil fuel capacity may become stranded in a net-zero system and that wind and storage could contribute to system inertia.
les of gearbox-based turbines being able to provide more physical inertia as well. Future requests for renewable energy could provide an adder for turbines that can provide this service going forward. Since all Lithium Ion Battery systems...
AI summary The document discusses the potential of synthetic inertia from renewable energy sources, particularly lithium-ion battery systems and inverter-based technologies, to stabilize power grids. It references studies and projects like PG&E's EPIC 2.05 and NERC's white paper, which highlight the benefits of these technologies in low-inertia environments.
during the pre-IRP stage and is available on the IRP website. We suggest that NS Power should provide that derivation The decision to constrain the model to the UCAP (ELCC) and identify what drives the need for an ELCC reserve margin PRM,...
AI summary The text discusses the derivation of the ELCC reserve margin of 9% in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the decision to constrain the model to the UCAP (ELCC) PRM, influenced by stakeholder feedback during the Assumptions stage of the modeling process.
July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Wind CA-10 NS Power caps the wind build at 100 MW (700 MW total IRP runs consistently show economic utilization of non- integration installed) unless either reliability tie or a batter...
AI summary NS Power has capped wind build at 100 MW unless reliability measures are implemented. The PSC study identified stability issues during high wind and import periods. NS Power plans to study system stability and constraints related to wind integration.
f high wind and high imports conversations with stakeholders. without the reliability tie, wind generation could be capped at 700 MW. Second, under conditions of high wind, a minimum conventional (thermal or hydro) online capacity requirem...
AI summary The text discusses potential measures to ensure grid reliability during high wind conditions, such as establishing a minimum conventional online capacity requirement to provide local inertia and reduce imports, thereby avoiding the combination of high wind and high imports.
ELCC CA-17 ELCC of Wreck Cove and Mersey Wreck Cove is an energy-limited peaking plant and an important source of ancillary grid services such Consumer Can NS Power explain why Wreck Cove operates so little in as reserve. When modeled in t...
AI summary The text discusses the operation of Wreck Cove and Mersey power plants, focusing on their capacity factors, dispatch reliability, and ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capacity) values. It questions why Wreck Cove operates so little during high-load hours and whether it has sufficient energy resources to support a 95% ELCC rating, especially during long winter peaks. It also raises concerns about Mersey's dispatch reliability and flexibility in reserve operations.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix J Page 209 of 245 IRP Participant Comments and NS Power Response July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Wind CanREA-01 Recommendation: more analysis be conducted to consider NS Po...
AI summary The Canadian Renewable Energy Association recommends further analysis on wind energy integration with storage and other technologies to enable more cost-effective wind energy without significant infrastructure investment. Nova Scotia Power has provided additional model runs and proposed an action plan for refining synchronized inertia requirements.
onse July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Wind CanREA-02 We understand that the operability analysis is likely to be The Operability Assessment completed as part of test scenarios that were evaluated in PLEXOS to ensure t...
AI summary CanREA-02 comments on the operability analysis of wind generation in Nova Scotia, emphasizing the need for dynamic/transient analysis to capture wind contributions to Fast Frequency Response services. NS Power acknowledges the need for additional work and proposes a post-IRP Action Plan item. The comment also highlights potential cost reductions from increased wind and inverter-based resources.
Analysis CanREA-03 Key unexplained results that are surprising and appear Plexos LT module optimizes resource plans constrained by counter-intuitive are the high levels of gas turbine build and all ancillary services (reserve) constraints,...
AI summary The analysis discusses modeling of ancillary service provision by various resources, noting that batteries and other non-synchronous resources can provide higher quality ancillary services compared to conventional resources. However, the quality of AGC service from batteries is too granular for capacity expansion models. NS Power highlights that the ELCC of battery storage declines quickly with installed capacity in Nova Scotia.
July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response CTs HG-01 The liquid‐fueled CT’s are now over 40 years old. The model As discussed at the July IRP workshop, NS Power has scenarios include the continued use of these units to 2045, in...
AI summary Heritage Gas raises concerns about the aging liquid-fueled combined cycle (CT) units, which are over 40 years old and expected to operate until 2045. Fuel delivery relies on tanker trucks, and availability is constrained, especially in winter. NS Power responds that it has invested in maintaining these units and that their capacity is lower cost than alternatives, citing resource screening results.
Wind cap NF-02 Wind is capped at 700 MW unless tie, batteries, condensers Contingencies are not scheduled, and therefore the built. PSC study was based on stressed conditions and system cannot be pre-set to manage these Natural Forces seve...
AI summary The text discusses the limitations on wind capacity in Nova Scotia, suggesting that wind should be capped at 700 MW unless tie, batteries, or condensers are built. It highlights concerns about system contingencies and the economic implications of curtailing wind output or imports during system stress.
non-firm imports that are being economically dispatched in all The Study findings do not conclude that the wind installed scenarios. NPCC and NERC criteria state the capacity must be limited to 700 MW. All that they conclude, contingencies...
AI summary The study does not recommend limiting wind capacity to 700 MW but suggests temporary limitations during stressed system conditions. NS Power's draft findings indicate the need for further assessment of system stability with high renewable energy penetration and potential requirements for additional integration assets.
se July 2020 Category Comment # Comment NS Power Response Inertia NF-03 System inertial response requirement is over-stated. NS Power agrees that it will monitor industry developments around synthetic inertia. Natural Forces The minimum le...
AI summary The comment challenges the overstatement of system inertial response requirements, noting that the minimum level of 3,266 MW is not well substantiated based on the PSC study. NS Power agrees to monitor industry developments around synthetic inertia and acknowledges that the SIR requirement arises from high imports on the AC intertie.
and how changes could impact the optimal quantity and timing of these resources. Interconnection NF-06 Interconnection energy flows shown in aggregate. Can the Information has been provided in a manner that energy flows import and export e...
AI summary The text discusses interconnection energy flows and the eligibility of imports for ELCC calculations, noting that only firm imports contribute to capacity requirements. It highlights differences in practices between Europe and Nova Scotia and the need for firm import arrangements and transmission access for reliable capacity during peak events.
Inertia SBA-01 Since the system inertia requirement is a constraint in the NS Power will continue to advance modeling of modeling, the Company should provide more analysis and system inertia constraints. As part of its updated Small Busine...
AI summary The text discusses the need for more detailed analysis on system inertia requirements and constraints, including the limitations of assumptions made about the Reliability Tie and the need for modeling synchronous condensers. NS Power is expected to provide further analysis and update its modeling results.
Reliability Tie SBA-02 Treatment of risk: The Reliability Tie and Regional The Reliability Tie and Regional Interconnection and Regional interconnection are significant components of the initial options have been selected in multiple plans...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of evaluating risks and costs associated with the Reliability Tie and Regional Integration projects. It emphasizes the need for additional studies and cost comparisons if these projects are selected, ensuring that alternatives are considered and that decisions are made based on a balanced assessment of cost and risk.
o -A case where the Reliability Tie provides 50% of system inertia. system inertia requirement (1633 MW.sec)
AI summary The text references a scenario where the Reliability Tie contributes 50% of the system inertia, with a specific requirement of 1633 MW.sec for system inertia.
nd are fossil fuel generator over batteries contributing to certain modeled ancillary services. 3. Did the inertia constraint impact the decision process of Batteries contribute to all types of reserve the Diesel CT Screening? including re...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of inertia constraints on the Diesel CT Screening and evaluates the potential of wind turbines, demand control, and batteries to contribute to ancillary services. It also notes that transient system stability studies, which assess FFR, are outside the scope of long-term planning studies.
NS Power Response The draft Roadmap item included in the draft Report provides: 2. Complete detailed system stability studies under various current and future system conditions, reflective of both stressed system states and normal operatin...
AI summary NS Power's response outlines the need for detailed system stability studies under various system conditions, considering increased wind capacity and the impact of inverter-based generators on grid services like Synchronized Inertia and Fast Frequency Response.
Integration • 2.1C – Mid Electrification / Base DSM / Net Zero 2050 / Regional Integration • 3.2C – High Electrification / Max DSM / Accelerated Net Zero 2045 / Regional Integration These three resource plans represent significant evolutio...
AI summary The document discusses three resource plans by NS Power, representing different levels of electrification and demand-side management, with a focus on reliability modeling and planning reserve margin targets. The Reliability screening work confirms that all three plans meet the reliability criteria and supports an 8-9% Planning Reserve Margin target in 2045.
ons • Captures thermal resource and transmission forced outages • Captures variable availability of renewables & correlations to load • Tracks hydro and storage state of charge Information about E3’s RECAP model can be found here: https://...
AI summary The document discusses the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) calculation by Nova Scotia Power using E3's RECAP model. It outlines the required PRM based on Installed Capacity (20%) and Unforced Capacity (9%), emphasizing the importance of reliability and capacity expansion modeling.
ct” 1-in-2 or “100% firm” capacity was forecast by NS Power Peak to be 2070 MW in 2020 Load 9 RECAP is used to test the reliability of the final PLEXOS portfolios Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 12 of 264 RECAP calcula...
AI summary The document discusses the use of the RECAP model in assessing the reliability of energy portfolios, particularly in relation to capacity expansion modeling and Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) values. It mentions the planning reserve margin (PRM) and the importance of ensuring adequate system capacity with a target of 0.1 days/year loss-of-load expectation (LOLE).
rt Appendix K Page 13 of 264 Scenarios Evaluated 2045 Installed Capacity in PLEXOS ModelNova RunsScotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 14 of 264 After the initial PLEXOS modeling, RECAP tested the reliability of the system in 204...
AI summary The document evaluates three scenarios for Nova Scotia Power's 2045 installed capacity under different carbon targets, electrification loads, and renewable build-out levels. All scenarios meet the 0.1 days/year loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) target, with varying ultimate capacity (UCAP) primary reserve management (PRM) requirements based on load shapes.
2.0.C 2.1.C 3.2.C LOLE Target (days/yr) 0.10 0.10 0.10 Achieved LOLE (days/yr) 0.06 0.02 0.06 Achieved LOLh (hrs/yr) 0.18 0.08 0.21 All scenarios PRM Target (UCAP) 8% 8% 9% remain reliable in 2045, with small Achieved PRM (UCAP) 9% 11% 10%...
AI summary The document presents LOLE and PRM targets and achievements across multiple scenarios for 2045. It indicates that all scenarios remain reliable with small amounts of excess capacity, highlighting the performance of the power system in meeting reliability targets.
14 Scenario 2.0.C. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 17 of 264 Detailed 2045 RECAP results E3 modeled NSP’s 2045 PLEXOS installed capacity and load in RECAP for 2.0.C, generating a UCAP target of 8% RECAP modeled ELCCs...
AI summary The text presents detailed 2045 RECAP results for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), including modeled installed capacity, load, and reserve requirements. The UCAP target is set at 8%, with LOLE achieved at 0.06 days per year, below the target of 0.1 days per year.
0.1 days/yr LOLE Achieved 0.06 days/yr PRM Target (UCAP) 8%
AI summary The document mentions LOLE (Loss-of-load expectation) achieved at 0.06 days per year and PRM (Primary Reserve Management) target (UCAP) at 8%. These metrics relate to system reliability and reserve management.
Installed Capacity (MW) ELCC (MW) / UCAP ICAP (MW) Includes all thermal units Dispatchable 1,505 1,418 1,505 Firm Imports 588 527 588 Includes only firm DR - - - imports Storage 33 27 27 Variable 1,132 152 152 Thermal, imports and Hydro 36...
AI summary The document presents capacity and ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capability) data for Nova Scotia's energy portfolio, including installed capacity, UCAP (Ultimate Capacity), ICAP (Installed Capacity), and PRM (Primary Reserve Management) metrics. It highlights a capacity surplus and the relationship between these metrics and reserve targets in 2045.
32 hit the target LOLE Note: RECAP estimates a PRM target endogenously given the scenario load characteristics and reserves in 2045, thus it may differ slightly from the PRM target estimated for the 2020 system. Similarly, ELCCs are also a...
AI summary The document discusses the modeling of Nova Scotia Power's 2045 installed capacity and load using the RECAP tool, resulting in a UCAP target of 8% and achieving a LOLE of 0.02 days per year, which is below the target of 0.1 days per year.
16 Scenario 3.2.C. Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 19 of 264 Detailed 2045 RECAP results E3 modeled NSP’s 2045 PLEXOS installed capacity and load in RECAP for 3.2.C, generating a UCAP target of 9% RECAP modeled ELCCs...
AI summary Scenario 3.2.C presents detailed 2045 RECAP results for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan, including modeled installed capacity, load, and reserve requirements, with a UCAP target of 9% and LOLE achieved at 0.06 days per year.
0.1 days/yr LOLE Achieved 0.06 days/yr PRM Target (UCAP) 9% Installed Capacity (MW) ELCC (MW) / UCAP ICAP (MW) Dispatchable 2,000 1,889 2,000 Firm Imports 768 721 768 DR 0 0 0 Storage 430 305 305 Variable 1957 278 278 Hydro 366 279 366 Tot...
AI summary The document presents data on Installed Capacity (ICAP), Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC), and Ultimate Capacity (UCAP) for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in 2045. It highlights a 10% PRM (UCAP) target achieved, a 18% PRM (ICAP) target achieved, and a capacity surplus of 40 MW. The note explains that these estimates are scenario-specific and may differ from 2020 projections due to changes in load characteristics and reserves.
ts may be triggered by any combination of high load, low renewable generation, or unit outages For NS Power’s system, the probability of loss of load correlates well with periods of high load
AI summary The text discusses factors that may trigger load loss in NS Power's system, including high load, low renewable generation, and unit outages. It also notes that the probability of loss of load correlates well with periods of high load.
Avg Month-Hr Load (MWh) Avg Month-Hr LOLP (frac hrs w/ lost load) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 1 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0....
AI summary The document presents a table showing average monthly load (in MWh) and loss-of-load probability (LOLP) across 12 months. The data indicates minimal to no loss-of-load probability, with a few instances showing very low percentages, such as 0.011% and 0.039%, suggesting high system reliability.
Avg Month-Hr Load (MWh) Avg Month-Hr LOLP (frac hrs w/ lost load) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 1 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0....
AI summary The text presents a table showing average monthly load (in MWh) and loss-of-load probability (LOLP) for different months. The LOLP values are generally very low, with some months showing a slight increase, such as 0.010% or 0.011% in certain months. This data may be used to assess system reliability and capacity planning.
Avg Month-Hr Load (MWh) Avg Month-Hr LOLP (frac hrs w/ lost load) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 1 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0....
AI summary The document presents a table showing average monthly load (in MWh) and the corresponding average monthly Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) across 12 months. The LOLP values are generally very low, with some months showing minimal probabilities of lost load, such as 0.011% in month 6 and 0.021% in month 9.
20 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 23 of 264 Conclusions Conclusions Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 24 of 264 All portfolios meet their LOLE reliability targets, indicating that the PLEXOS portfolio...
AI summary The document concludes that all portfolios meet their LOLE reliability targets in 2045, but recommends more detailed modeling of electrification load shapes to assess long-term impacts on PRM targets. It highlights the need for detailed analysis of electrification's effects on peak load and vehicle charging patterns.
ders of magnitude or directional time frames. NS Power looks forward to receiving stakeholder comments on this Draft Action Plan, which will then be refined for inclusion in the IRP Final Report. I R P D R A F T F I N D I N G S , R O A D M...
AI summary NS Power proposes a Regional Integration Strategy to enhance access to firm capacity and low carbon energy, improve interconnection reliability, and support coal unit retirements. The plan includes identifying near-term import opportunities, conducting engineering and economic studies, and developing a Reliability Tie and Regional Interconnection with target in-service dates between 2025-2035.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 77 of 264 IRP RESOURCE PLAN INSIGHTS Regional Integration Electrification Firm Capacity Resources Coal Retirements Reliability Tie and Regional Increased electricity sales due to New firm...
AI summary The IRP Resource Plan Insights discuss regional integration, electrification, firm capacity resources, and coal retirements. Electrification can reduce electricity rates and support carbon reductions. Firm capacity resources, like efficient combustion turbines, will replace retiring coal units, aligning with GHG emissions caps. Coal units are retiring due to declining capacity factors.
al revenue requirements 25 year NPV Revenue Requirement over the planning horizon (with and without end-effects adjustment) Average Annual Partial Rate Impact - 25-yr Magnitude and timing of electricity rate effects 10 year NPV Revenue Req...
AI summary The text discusses various aspects of electricity planning and regulation, including revenue requirements, reliability and grid stability, plan robustness, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and flexibility in decision-making. Key topics include the evaluation of resource capacity, essential grid services, and the impact of assumptions on plan outcomes.
2.1C.WIND-2 • 2.1C.WIND-3 – Low Inertia Constraint • 2.1C.WIND-4 – No Inertia / No Integration 2.1C.WIND-1 • General model behaviour is that under lower wind and wind battery prices, the ultimate wind build out does not change but it does...
AI summary The analysis discusses the impact of wind energy integration on system inertia and stability, highlighting that significant wind penetration beyond current models requires further study. It also notes that reducing inertia constraints has limited effects and that lower wind and battery prices may lead to earlier wind build-out. These findings are part of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) draft findings.
al revenue requirements 25 year NPV Revenue Requirement over the planning horizon (with and without end-effects adjustment) Average Annual Partial Rate Impact - 25-yr Magnitude and timing of electricity rate effects 10 year NPV Revenue Req...
AI summary The text outlines key evaluation criteria for assessing electricity plans, including revenue requirements, reliability, grid services, plan robustness, emissions reduction, and flexibility. It emphasizes quantitative and qualitative assessments of various aspects such as supply adequacy, essential grid services, and sensitivity to changes in assumptions.
d Effects ($MM) $16,692 Essential Grid Services • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,850 Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2035 • Regional Integration: n/a Average Annual Partial Rate Impac...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) of Nova Scotia Power. It highlights essential grid services, resource adequacy, CO2 emissions, and the impact of natural gas prices on the plan's robustness and compliance with sustainability goals.
64 1.0C L O W E L E C . / B A S E D S M / C O M PA R AT O R E M I S S I O N S / R E G I O N A L I N T E G R AT I O N Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $12,190 General Notes • Incremental firm imports enable an economic coal u...
AI summary The document presents scenario metrics and evaluation data for a 25-year and 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) under different conditions, including coal unit retirements, reliability tie construction, and regional interconnection. It also includes CO2 emissions data and mentions non-compliance with Sustainable Development Goals Act.
Resource Adequacy & PRM 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $6,820 • Reliability Tie: 2030 • Regional Integration: 2037 Plan Robustness & Flexibility Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • Regional Integration provides flexible ability to meet emissions const...
AI summary The document discusses resource adequacy and Peak Resource Management (PRM), including 10-year Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2021 to 2045. It references the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and mentions reliability tie and regional integration timelines.
otia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 123 of 264 2.1A MID ELEC. / BASE DSM / NET ZERO 2050 / CURRENT LANDSCAPE Scenario Metrics & Evaluation 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,353 General Notes • Reliability Tie built in 2031 enables wind integra...
AI summary The text discusses the Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Final Report, focusing on scenario metrics and evaluation related to the 25-yr and 10-yr Net Present Value of Resource Requirements (NPVRR), reliability, resource adequacy, CO2 emissions, and grid services. Key factors include the impact of wind integration, gas capacity, and coal unit conversions.
converted to gas in 2037 Essential Grid Services 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $8,232 • Essential Grid Service requirements are met as modeled Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2030 Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • Regional Integration: n...
AI summary The document discusses the Essential Grid Services, Resource Adequacy & PRM, and Plan Robustness & Flexibility, highlighting the 10-year NPVRR, average annual partial rate impact, and CO2 emissions from 2021 to 2045. It outlines the reliance on natural gas and the limited ability to adjust supply sources.
Adequacy & PRM 2021-2030 (%) 1.2% 0.6% • Reliability Tie: 2030 2021-2045 (%) 0.8% 0.7% • Regional Integration: 2031 Plan Robustness & Flexibility Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 39.9 41.8 • No change relative to 2.1C Base Total CO2 Emis...
AI summary The document discusses the adequacy and Peak Resource Management (PRM) metrics for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) from 2021 to 2045, including Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and CO2 emissions. It also outlines the New Installed Capacity Comparison for 2045 and Scenario Metrics & Evaluation under the MID DSM scenario.
676 $6,820 end effects are considered relative to 2.0C Base DSM indicating the solutions are very close economically Essential Grid Services Average Annual Partial Rate Impact • No change relative to 2.0C 2021-2030 (%) 0.3% 0.9% 2021-2045...
AI summary The text presents a comparison of CO2 emissions and grid services under different scenarios, including the 2.0C DSM-5 (Mid DSM) plan. It highlights minimal changes in reliability and grid services, with a focus on emissions reductions and the integration of regional resources by 2037.
Adequacy & PRM 2021-2030 (%) 1.8% 0.9% • Reliability Tie: 2034 2021-2045 (%) 1.2% 0.9% • Regional Integration: 2040 Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 38.4 40.7 Plan Robustness & Flexibility Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 23.7 24.3 • N...
AI summary The document discusses reliability targets and carbon emissions for Nova Scotia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) from 2021 to 2045, highlighting reliability tie timelines and CO2 emissions projections. It also references the MID DSM and Net Zero 2045 initiatives, along with regional integration efforts.
Essential Grid Services 0.6% 0.7% • No change relative to 2.1C Resource Adequacy & PRM Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 30.5 41.8 • Reliability Tie: 2025 Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 26.1 29.1 • Regional Integration: 2026 Total CO2...
AI summary The text discusses essential grid services, resource adequacy, and PRM (Peak Resource Management) under the context of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) from Nova Scotia Power. It outlines CO2 emissions projections and mentions considerations for flexibility in importing energy to balance increased wind capacity.
(%) 0.5% 0.6% • NPVRR is reduced relative to 3.1C in two of three metrics, slightly higher in 10-yr NPV due 2021-2045 (%) 0.6% 0.7% to advancement of investment Essential Grid Services Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 26.8 41.8 • No chan...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of the 2.1C.WIND-3 scenario on CO2 emissions and resource adequacy, noting a reduction in NPVRR in some metrics and the need for further consideration of flexibility in import energy to balance increased wind capacity. It also highlights the importance of regional integration and reliability ties by 2023 and 2036.
overall resource plan optimization 2021-2030 (%) 0.5% 0.6% • Cost differences are small over all three NPV metrics 2021-2045 (%) 0.7% 0.7% Essential Grid Services • Current studies indicate that 2200MW.sec of online kinetic inertia is not...
AI summary The document discusses the optimization of the overall resource plan from 2021 to 2045, highlighting small cost differences across NPV metrics and concerns about grid stability, specifically the need for additional inertia and studies. It also outlines reliability ties and regional integration timelines and notes no change from the 2.1C plan.
ment and replacement energy costs, NPVs incorporating MT/ST Production 10-yr NPVRR ($MM) $7,049 $7,067 Costs are not significantly lower than the base scenario 2.1C Essential Grid Services • This run is intended as a test case to understan...
AI summary The text discusses the financial and environmental impacts of different energy planning scenarios, highlighting that energy costs and CO2 emissions are higher in certain cases. It also explores the performance of the model under extreme conditions, such as no inertia and no wind integration, and emphasizes the importance of flexibility in resource planning.
Scenario Metrics & Evaluation Sensitivity Base (2.1C) 25-yr NPVRR ($MM) $13,097 $13,141 General Notes • While the Mersey system was economically retained in the screening phase, this sensitivity was completed in order to understand how cap...
AI summary The document evaluates the financial and operational impacts of decommissioning the Mersey Hydro system, including the replacement of capacity and energy, changes in regional integration timelines, and the associated decommissioning costs. It also outlines the partial rate impact on the grid due to these changes.
• No change relative to 2.1C 2021-2030 (%) 0.9% 0.6% 2021-2045 (%) 0.7% 0.7% Resource Adequacy & PRM • Reliability Tie: 2024 Total CO2 Emissions 2021-2030 (MT) 43.5 41.8 • Regional Integration: 2026 Total CO2 Emissions 2031-2045 (MT) 35.1...
AI summary The text presents emission reduction targets and resource adequacy plans for Nova Scotia Power, including CO2 emissions reductions from 2021-2030 and 2031-2045, as well as key milestones such as the Reliability Tie in 2024 and Regional Integration in 2026. It also references a scenario evaluation under the Base (2.0A) sensitivity.
acity drops in 2045, identify the resources the model substitutes for battery capacity, and discuss implications of late- model treatment of battery storage in the end effects calculation. Transmission and system inertia The modeling raise...
AI summary The document raises concerns about the modeling of battery storage and system inertia in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), noting inconsistencies in how battery capacity and inertia impact the timing of the reliability intertie and regional integration. It also highlights sensitivity of the model to small changes in battery costs.
optimize a transition to a more adaptive resource mix, and that some of these interactions might be enabling higher retirements of “slow inertia” units. This concept is consistent with the model output from 2.1C.IMPORT-3: with the reliabil...
AI summary The document discusses the impact of the reliability intertie on inertia, unit retirement, and resource mix, including questions about inertia contributions from steam units, the role of the reliability intertie in enabling imports, and the implications for future resource planning and RFP processes.
ificant penetrations and determine whether additional dynamic system inertia constraints can enable this level of additional wind integration on the Nova Scotia system.” (Slide 47) CanREA observes that NSPI focuses on constraints to wind i...
AI summary CanREA argues that NSPI has not fully considered the frequency response capabilities of wind generation, such as fast frequency response (FFR), which can reduce the need for synchronous inertia. This is important as wind generation is highlighted in the IRP as a key resource for replacing coal-fired generation.
1. Nova Scotia’s Sustainable Development Goals Act is a significant milestone in the province’s climate plans, and actions adhering to these emission goals is a welcome scenario. The EAC supports the notion of a steep reduction in reducing...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia's Sustainable Development Goals Act and the importance of studying zero-emission scenarios. It highlights the benefits of firm capacity imports and grid reliability improvements, while expressing concerns about the risks of relying on gas turbine infrastructure and natural gas purchases due to potential carbon emissions.
Elisa Obermann, Executive Director of Marine Renewables Canada Via Email: [email protected] Greg Robart, CEO Smart Grid Innovation Network Via Email: [email protected] Envigour Memo September 16, 2020 Page 3 of 3 Nova Scotia Power IRP F...
AI summary Heritage Gas highlights the importance of natural gas for grid reliability and environmental goals in Nova Scotia's Integrated Resource Plan. The document discusses the reliance on natural gas and the continued operation of liquid-fueled combustion turbines for the next 25 years.
ity of Liquid-Fueled Combustion Turbines (“CTs”) In Draft Finding 3(b), NSPI describes retaining these units for another 25 years, at which point they will have been in operation for nearly 70 years: “NS Power’s existing CT resources provi...
AI summary The text discusses concerns raised by Heritage Gas regarding the reliability of NSPI's 1970’s-era combustion turbines, noting that they failed during periods of high ambient temperatures and that NSPI was aware of these limitations. NSPI argues that these units provide economic benefits and can be sustained with reinvestment.
anticipated and expected by NSPI personnel. This suggests that the reliability of these units is limited and those limitations are understood by those who operate NSPI’s system. NSPI’s seven 33 MW combustion turbines’ performance during th...
AI summary The audit highlights concerns about the reliability of NSPI's combustion turbines, noting that their performance during the audit period had elevated DAFOR rates and low availability factors. The report also states that NSPI significantly underestimated the frequency these units would be called upon, with actual output exceeding forecasts by over 1,300%.
also notes that an increase of this size in natural gas consumption in the region requires long-term natural gas transportation commitment planning, which should also be reflected in the Action Plan. Electrification and Associated Transmis...
AI summary The text discusses the need for long-term natural gas transportation planning due to increased consumption, significant investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure driven by electrification and environmental targets, and the role of natural gas in supporting the transition to low carbon fuels. It also references ongoing DSM Matter No. M09471 regarding avoided T&D costs.
. Even before consideration of the “low wind cost” sensitivities, several scenarios, including those identified as resulting in lower electricity rates, have substantially higher wind volumes. • CO2 levels vary widely between scenarios. Th...
AI summary The analysis highlights that scenarios with lower electricity rates involve higher wind volumes and varying CO2 levels. Lower CO2 emissions are valued for risk mitigation and promoting electrification in other sectors. The document recommends further consideration of risk assessment to identify resilient scenarios, particularly those with higher renewables and lower emissions.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix K Page 226 of 264 Cooke Energy and Utility Consulting Ltd. comps, or the 2nd AC intertie. This has been discussed at length before, and NSP’s adherence to this position is quite frankly, rather b...
AI summary The text discusses Nova Scotia Power's (NSP) position on managing wind output during system instability, arguing that curtailing wind output during rare extreme conditions is a standard practice in systems with high intermittent renewable resources. It also notes that stressed system cases from the Power System Stability Study are unlikely to occur based on 2019 data.
sources. The IRP analysis relied on conclusions of the 2019 PSC study, but NSP has acknowledged that additional analysis will be needed to more fully understand the inertia requirements in the future. The draft Finding #2 acknowledges this...
AI summary The analysis of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) relies on the 2019 PSC study, but Nova Scotia Power (NSP) acknowledges that further analysis is needed to understand future inertia requirements. The draft Finding and Roadmap highlight the need for additional system stability studies, particularly regarding wind integration and potential contributions from wind projects to system inertia.
Category Participant Comment NSP Response / Consideration for Final Report Wind sensitivity CA We see extraordinary sensitivity to relatively modest drivers. For example, lowering the From a reliability perspective, NS Power has modeled th...
AI summary The comment highlights the sensitivity of wind integration to factors like battery costs and the impact of the reliability tie on system inertia. NS Power explains that the model considers reliability through the reliability tie and PRM, and that steam unit constraints influence the transition to a more adaptive resource mix.
ts, combustion turbines, the letter of comment); rather, the model is constrained by steam unit minimum up and down times (and and wind (presumably for the energy). is penalized by unit start costs) which would suggest that a more flexible...
AI summary The text discusses the use of combustion turbines for inertia and other services, the impact of unit start costs on system flexibility, and the integration of unit commitment costs into optimization models. It also touches on the trade-offs of transmission and reliability measures, and the influence of inertia and reserve constraints on retirement pace.
ies the inertia values by unit that on retirement pace for this reason. More broadly, as the system transitions to a resource mix with more NS Power provided previously. Does “slow inertia” refer to the long start-up times of steam variabl...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of transitioning to a resource mix with more variable generation on system inertia and the role of the reliability tie in providing inertia and enabling wind integration. It also explores the relationship between unit commitment costs and the pace of resource transition.
deficiency and require incremental CT resources, at a higher cost than sustaining the existing fleet. Dispatch and CA NS Power’s PLEXOS model incorporates system operating requirements and generating unit properties operating reserve Day-A...
AI summary The document highlights discrepancies between NS Power’s Day-Ahead and Real-Time schedules and actual dispatch, leading to inefficiencies. It also notes issues with operating-reserve surpluses and recommends that NS Power verify its IRP model assumptions and update findings to ensure optimal reserve provision and cost efficiency.
Wind/inertia/FFR CanREA CanREA observes that NSPI focuses on constraints to wind integration, questioning whether NS Power’s Action Plan includes completing further system stability studies to determine whether “additional dynamic system i...
AI summary CanREA highlights that NS Power's Action Plan may not fully consider the frequency response capabilities of wind generation, such as Fast Frequency Response (FFR), which can reduce the need for synchronous inertia. NS Power conducted sensitivities to assess the impact of reduced inertia on resource expansion plans.
providing. By focusing on just this ancillary service NSPI failed to consider the range of service. Batteries contribute to all types of reserve including regulation (raising and lowering), spinning ancillary services that are critical to...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of ancillary services, particularly frequency response and ramp down services, in enabling the integration of wind generation in Nova Scotia. It highlights the limitations of the PLEXOS framework in assessing transient system stability and FFR, which are critical for grid reliability.
services that allow NSPI to dispatch off thermal generating units and rely on the fast absence is not expected to have an impact on coal retirement decisions. However, if FFR services are frequency response capability that wind generators...
AI summary The text discusses the potential of wind, solar, and battery resources to provide ancillary services such as fast frequency response (FFR), which can enhance system reliability and reduce costs. NS Power is committed to further studies on system stability and the integration of these resources into the grid.
operate at a reduced capacity to provide headroom to offer ancillary services (e.g., the provision of primary frequency response) under some operating conditions. Wind/inertia/FFR CanREA Sensitivities (2.1C.WIND-3 (LOW INERTIA CONSTRAINT))...
AI summary The text discusses the impact of wind energy integration on system inertia and the need for further studies to understand the implications of increased wind penetration. It also highlights the importance of regional integration and stakeholder input in updating studies and modeling assumptions.
emissions to align with net-zero carbon scenario. Therefore, it would be prudent to have a future-proof plan ready for deployment. Transmission EAC Access to firm capacity imports from the Maritime provinces and Quebec would be highly NS P...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of aligning emissions with a net-zero carbon scenario and the need for a future-proof plan. It also highlights the role of wind energy and the potential benefits of firm capacity imports from the Maritime provinces and Quebec. NS Power acknowledges the value of the Reliability Tie and the integration of renewable energy sources.
alyses. System Inertia SBA / The draft Finding #2 acknowledges this, noting that “Further work is required to assess NS Power has identified future work related to wind stability studies at higher penetrations in the Daymark system stabili...
AI summary The document discusses NS Power's ongoing work to assess system stability and inertia constraints related to higher wind energy penetration in Nova Scotia. It references studies and sensitivity analyses conducted to evaluate the impact of wind integration on system reliability and the Reliability Tie.
The modeling of the inertia requirement has supported certain resource decisions, in NS Power has not expressly modeled a FFR requirement, which is a service that is separate from particular the addition of the Reliability Tie which is ass...
AI summary The document discusses the modeling of inertia requirements in the NSP system, noting that the Reliability Tie provides all necessary inertia. It also mentions that NSP has not evaluated wind projects' potential to provide fast frequency response (FFR), despite understanding that wind resources can offer various levels of FFR services. The document recommends that NSP include a plan for additional analyses in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
nt services on certain generators (e.g. wind) are found to reduce the synchronous inertia constraint, the resources to address these needs (conventional generators, the Reliability Tie, Maritime economics of building more variable renewabl...
AI summary The document discusses the need to address reliability challenges due to reduced synchronous inertia from wind generators, suggesting solutions such as conventional generators, the Reliability Tie, and load resources. NS Power is committed to studying these issues and has incorporated these considerations into its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Action Plan. Coordination with New Brunswick and supply availability are emphasized for the Reliability Tie and Regional Integration.
MW (Slide 57). We caution on the limitation placed by identifying Demand Response potential of only 75 MW. This resource needs more examination to understand its true size potential and cost for different levels of DR. IRP Process / Overal...
AI summary The Town of Wolfville highlights challenges small communities face in engaging with the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process due to lack of resources and expertise. They suggest an updated mandate to better address climate change and environmental concerns within the IRP process. NS Power acknowledges the concerns and agrees with the need for enhanced reliability screening.
es that could allow wind to reduce the inertial constraint that NS Power identified. NS Power made one modest change in how it modeled wind recognizing that wind can provide a regulation down service. A number of parties also critiqued the...
AI summary NS Power adjusted its wind modeling to account for regulation down service, while parties critiqued the PSC study's 700 MW wind constraint. CanREA suggests reducing imports over the NB intertie instead of wind generation and recommends stakeholder-inclusive system stability studies to increase confidence in findings.
These three strategies may be employed in combination. One approach could be to sequence their deployment, relying on operating practices during the early stages of expanded wind development that could result in relatively large curtailmen...
AI summary The text discusses strategies for managing wind energy integration, including sequencing deployment, curtailment, and infrastructure upgrades. It also highlights the need for coordination in planning, cost estimation, and modeling to address system inertia and reliability concerns. Telos Energy's comments and Plexos modeling are referenced in this analysis.
experience demonstrating that the system can be operated reliably with early retirement of additional thermal units. NS Power comments that “…it is likely that inertia and reserve constraints have an influence on retirement prematurely. Wi...
AI summary NS Power discusses the reliability of the system with early retirement of thermal units and the potential use of synchronous condensers. They also mention the impact of the in-service date of the Reliability Tie on costs and system inertia sensitivity.
n transition. The plans fall short of “optimal” as the software was presented with limited regional integration opportunities. Incremental transmission builds must be examined fully in future studies. As highlighted in EAC’s previous comme...
AI summary The text emphasizes the need for comprehensive future studies on incremental transmission builds and highlights the importance of achieving high electrification levels without reliance on natural gas. It also stresses the need for future planning to be transparent, inclusive, and managed by an independent third party with a focus on affordability, reliability, and sustainability.
ng horizon (adjusted for end-effects). NS Power will continue to use this primary metric to guide resource planning, and will also assess others of increasing importance, including: - Magnitude and timing of electricity rate effects; - Rel...
AI summary NS Power will use a primary metric for resource planning and evaluate secondary metrics such as electricity rate effects, reliability, grid services, plan robustness, GHG emissions, and flexibility. These evaluation criteria have evolved since the Terms of Reference were presented.
3 POTENTIAL CAUSES OF OVERFORECASTING To be clear, the pattern of overcasting is not unique to BC Hydro. Our research reveals that other utilities and system operators also persistently and substantially overestimate long-term requirements...
AI summary The text discusses the issue of overforecasting in long-term energy planning, noting that it is not unique to BC Hydro. It highlights risk asymmetry bias, where reliability has historically taken precedence over cost-effectiveness and environmental concerns. With changing market conditions, overforecasting now leads to unnecessary investments and rate increases, impacting the low-carbon electrification transition.
of 125 November 13, 2020 Nicole Godbout Director, Regulatory Affairs Nova Scotia Power Inc. PO Box 910 Halifax, NS B3J 2W5 RE: M08929 – NSPI Integrated Resource Planning – Draft IRP Report Heritage Gas has reviewed the Draft IRP Report, di...
AI summary Heritage Gas supports the inclusion of natural gas in Nova Scotia Power Inc.'s Integrated Resource Plan, citing its role in providing reliable generation and supporting renewable integration. It highlights natural gas as a low-carbon option and emphasizes its importance in ensuring system reliability during periods of low renewable generation.
pen to collaborating with NSPI on the process to achieving an integrated energy system, which will achieve lower emissions and reduce costs to the benefit of all ratepayers. Conversion of Coal-to-Gas Roadmap item 1 discusses the need for “...
AI summary The document discusses NSPI's efforts to collaborate on an integrated energy system, the need for engineering studies on coal-to-gas conversions at Trenton and Point Tupper Generating Stations, and the importance of studying the regional intertie for firm capacity and reliability, especially in the context of climate change impacts.
l strategies to meet them, and we urge that this is undertaken as soon as possible, in order to prevent this issue continuing to inappropriately constrain decisions on the optimum resource portfolio. 3. Selection of Reference Plan, and “Si...
AI summary The text discusses the selection of a reference plan for a low electrification scenario and highlights the importance of system stability studies to ensure reliability under stressed conditions. It raises concerns that the reference plan may not be the optimal choice due to potential lower rates and policy benefits in other scenarios.
Wind Consumer Plan for potential transmission projects in parallel to NS Power will continue transmission planning (for both integration Advocate (1b) both additional study of wind integration as well as the the Reliability Tie and Regiona...
AI summary NS Power is planning transmission projects in parallel with wind integration studies and the recommended all-source RFP. This includes evaluating strategies such as an early in-service date for the Reliability Tie and implementing operating practices to ensure system reliability.
P a g e 1 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 82 of 125 Category Participant Comment NS Power Response and pre-curtailment of wind resources for operating Additional potential benefits of the Reliability Tie not reserve p...
AI summary The document discusses the potential benefits of the Reliability Tie, including the use of battery storage and synchronous condensers for reserve purposes, and mentions that additional benefits will be studied as part of Action Item 1b.
More in-depth investigation of the system inertia question is called for. If inertial constraints can be satisfied by a combination of wind curtailment and other operating limits, additional battery storage and synchronous condensers, NS P...
AI summary The text discusses the need for further investigation into system inertia, particularly through wind curtailment and battery storage. It also mentions the importance of reviewing the Reliability Tie and conducting further modeling for the Mersey hydroelectric facilities redevelopment, incorporating IRP findings and updated data.
P a g e 8 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L Page 89 of 125 Category Participant Comment NS Power Response wind and the constraints associated with integrating synchronous generators. New wind generation is additional volumes...
AI summary The document discusses the integration of wind energy and the challenges associated with it, including the need for synchronous generators and the use of dispatchable generators for ancillary grid services. NS Power uses the PLEXOS optimizer to make resource addition/retirement decisions, informed by market pricing and IRP scenarios.
ry energy storage systems. CanREA believes that securing more market- based pricing information for these other clean energy resources would be valuable given the pricing trends for solar and energy storage. Wind CanREA Furthermore, to the...
AI summary CanREA suggests that NS Power should reassess the role of solar and energy storage in its resource mix based on market pricing trends, and highlights the need for detailed system stability studies to address inertia constraints from wind and other non-synchronous resources.
d resources to provide of both stressed system states and normal operating frequency response services and by so doing to reduce conditions, while considering higher quantities of P a g e 10 45 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix L...
AI summary The document discusses Nova Scotia Power's (NS Power) response to comments from the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) regarding the ability of wind to provide regulation services and reduce inertia constraints. NS Power made a modest change in its modeling of wind, recognizing its capacity to provide regulation down services.
NS Power also tested a boundary case, 2.1C.WIND-4, which removed synchronous inertia and wind integration constraints. Under this resource plan, wind additions beyond 100MW begin in 2024 and continue in 2025, timing which is aligned with I...
AI summary NS Power tested a boundary case involving wind integration constraints, suggesting wind additions beyond 100MW would begin in 2024 and continue in 2025, aligned with the IRP Action Item 3d. Some parties critiqued the PSC study used to set a 700 MW wind constraint, arguing NSPI's modeling was overly conservative.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response required to confirm and/or expand the conclusions from the PSC Study, given the limited number of cases studied. Wind / PSC CanREA In the PSC Study the loss of the New Brunswick intertie NS Po...
AI summary CanREA suggests that reducing imports over the NB intertie may be more effective than reducing wind generation during high import levels, as imports have higher incremental costs and could provide grid services. NS Power agrees but notes that pre-curtailment of imports may not be economic due to the significant quantities of non-firm imports being dispatched.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response operating conditions, which actually appear to be quite results. This work will also consider the impacts of grid rare, the output of wind should be limited to 700 MW. service provision from i...
AI summary CanREA suggests that wind output should be limited to 700 MW under rare operating conditions and that additional wind capacity could be procured if regulation services and other deficiencies in the PSC Study are addressed. NS Power's Wind Procurement Strategy is referenced, and the impact of new ancillary services on grid reliability is discussed.
ystem conditions that posed reliability risks (e.g., low be modeled to determine the timing and capacity of wind loads) then wind output greater than 700 MW could be additions. constrained down after imports were reduced. When curtailed, t...
AI summary The text discusses system conditions that could pose reliability risks, particularly when wind output exceeds 700 MW and may be constrained after imports are reduced. It also mentions that curtailed wind turbines could provide primary frequency response, potentially offsetting some of the associated costs.
these wind turbines would be available to provide primary frequency response, offsetting at least in part costs associated with such a curtailment.
AI summary The text discusses how wind turbines can provide primary frequency response, potentially offsetting costs associated with curtailment.
dered an adequate range of planning costs and characteristics of such resources, and their scenarios through this omission, given the urgency of interaction with grid services and reliability are not well climate action. Moreover, since el...
AI summary The text discusses the challenges of aligning electricity sector planning with the SDGA, noting that current scenarios lack adequate consideration of resource costs and grid interactions. It highlights the uncertainty around achieving net-zero emissions and the potential for stranded assets if natural gas is used beyond 2050. NS Power suggests revisiting modeling once enabling technologies and legislative frameworks are more established.
are challenging to cost-effectively electrify. These include heavy vehicle transportation, industrial and institutional processes. Therefore, in addition to the role of natural gas in supporting the transition of the electrical grid, the i...
AI summary The text discusses the role of natural gas infrastructure in supporting the transition of the electrical grid and reducing GHG emissions, with a focus on integrating the electrical grid with the natural gas pipeline network to increase reliability and lower energy costs. It also mentions the potential of hydrogen and renewable natural gas (RNG) in supporting the net-zero emissions target.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response The tie line connection to New Brunswick will be exposed to the increasing frequency and severity of NS Power concurs that reliability implications will be storms related to climate change imp...
AI summary The text discusses concerns regarding the reliability of the tie line connection to New Brunswick in the context of climate change and the aging LFO-fired CTs. NS Power acknowledges the need to assess reliability implications and the importance of monitoring and re-evaluating the economics of maintaining these units.
of system stability issues and procurement. consideration of optimum operational strategies to address system reliability with higher levels of wind generation; NS Power has committed to completing a detailed system 2. An RFP to determine...
AI summary The document outlines NS Power's commitment to addressing system stability issues and conducting a detailed system stability study to evaluate the impact of higher wind generation on system reliability. It also mentions the importance of setting a clear program of work with target dates and stakeholder engagement.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response difference in the extent of wind deployment during the 2020s, from the alternative scenario 2.1C. Wind Natural Forces The report also notes regarding scenario 2.1C.WIND- NS Power has modified...
AI summary Natural Forces argues that scenario 2.1C in the report is a feasible resource plan, despite the report's characterization. NS Power responds by changing the description from 'feasible' to 'operable' due to the lack of synchronous inertia in the scenario. NS Power acknowledges the theoretical possibility of high wind deployment but emphasizes the need for further study on operational practices and system stability.
sing a proposed retirement? What will be the decision metrics that will be used to determine retirement timing? Future steps / SBA Gas conversions: The draft IRP notes that coal-to-gas NS Power has committed to advancing the engineering Co...
AI summary The text discusses the proposed coal-to-gas conversions in Nova Scotia's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the need for a framework to evaluate their economic viability. It raises concerns about potential stranded costs if non-emitting alternatives become more economical and asks about a breakeven point for switching to non-emitting options.
Category Participant Comment NS Power Response with the economics of the conversions, and what analysis will support the decision-making? Future steps / SBA Regional Integration and Reliability Tie: The draft NS Power agrees that the under...
AI summary The SBA supports the Regional Integration and Reliability Tie strategy as economically beneficial, based on current analysis. NS Power agrees that the assumptions in the IRP require validation and reassessment, and notes that its Action Plan Item #1 incorporates many of the points raised.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE ‘As we have previously noted, this process is only a part, albeit a very important part, of developing a roadmap for Canada and Nova Scotia to achieve net-zero energy emissions by 2050. As...
AI summary The document discusses the importance of decarbonizing the electricity system as part of achieving net-zero energy emissions by 2050. Nova Scotia Power is highlighted as a key player in grid decarbonization and infrastructure deployment. Collaboration is emphasized as essential for the successful implementation of plans like HalifACT.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE achieve lower emissions and reduce costs to the benefit of all ratepayers.’ JFS Hydrostor No comment n/a Natural Supportive: 2020-11-13; p. XX Forces -‘While this is almost certainly correc...
AI summary The stakeholder comments highlight the potential of the electricity sector to facilitate decarbonization of other sectors through electrification without increasing electricity rates. Natural Forces supports this view and emphasizes the need for significant transformation of the generation resource base to meet Nova Scotia’s emission reduction goals.
Forces PHP Generally supportive with comments on importance of 2020-11-13; p.1/2-2/2 flexibility and collaboration: -‘As opportunities may arise in a host of areas, such as the ability to cost share transmission infrastructure build outs w...
AI summary PHP emphasizes the importance of collaboration and information sharing among stakeholders to achieve Nova Scotia's sustainable development goals in the least cost manner. They highlight opportunities such as cost-sharing transmission infrastructure and advancing renewable capacity. SBA did not provide a comment.
load scenario.” (Slide 47) The first element of the Draft Action Plan is to “Develop a Regional Integration Strategy to provide access to firm capacity and low carbon energy, increase the reliability of Nova Scotia’s interconnection with N...
AI summary CanREA supports the development of a Regional Integration Strategy to enhance access to firm capacity and low carbon energy, improve interconnection reliability, and enable coal unit retirements. They encourage NSPI to accelerate this effort and emphasize the importance of including solar energy and energy storage in planning scenarios.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE Given that the Regional Integration and Reliability Ties play a key role in many of the optimal resource plans developed for the key scenarios, these studies should be undertaken in the nea...
AI summary The document emphasizes the importance of Regional Integration and Reliability Ties in optimal resource plans, noting the need to address climate change impacts on grid reliability and energy security. The SBA supports the investigation of these ties as a common component of top-performing plans.
Strategy was a common component of top-performing plans and should be investigated for future consideration. The draft IRP used more concrete language about immediately pursuing this option, and implementing it more quickly than indicated...
AI summary The text discusses the importance of strategy in top-performing integrated resource plans (IRPs), suggesting it should be explored further. The draft IRP recommends pursuing this strategy more quickly, as it appears economically beneficial. However, further analysis is needed to determine technical feasibility and availability of firm capacity from other regions.
conducted by PSC on the inertia needs of the system provided an important initial assessment, but will need to Page 14 of 43 Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix M Page 15 of 43 Nova Scotia Power IRP Summary of Stakeholder Comments...
AI summary The PSC conducted an assessment of the system's inertia needs, which provided an initial evaluation but requires further study before relying on firm imports for reliability. Stakeholder comments on the findings, action plan, and roadmap are summarized, with the Town of Wolfville providing no comment.
FINDING STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE SBA Supportive of Action Plan item for further analysis: 2020-09-18; p.2/3 -:While the draft analysis indicates that the assumed system inertia requirement is not binding for several years,...
AI summary The SBA supports further analysis of the system inertia requirement, noting that cost declines for wind capacity or other factors may accelerate wind development and the need for reliability solutions. The AREA comments on the economic sustainability of coal units until their model-imposed retirement dates, with potential for early retirement if constraints are satisfied.
ACTION PLAN ITEM STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE 1. Develop a Regional Integration Strategy to provide CA See comments above re Finding 2a access to firm capacity and low carbon energy while CanREA Supportive: See comments on Fin...
AI summary The document outlines an action plan to develop a Regional Integration Strategy aimed at enhancing Nova Scotia’s energy reliability and access to low carbon energy. It includes developing a Reliability Tie and Regional Interconnection by 2025-2035, as well as conducting studies on firm import options. Stakeholders have provided varied comments, ranging from supportive to concerned about risks.
ROADMAP ITEM STAKEHOLDE STAKEHOLDER COMMENT REFERENCE R 1. Advance engineering study work on coal-to-gas Heritage Gas Supports and suggests a timeline and stakeholder 2020-11-16; p. 4/5 conversions at Trenton and Point Tupper Generating en...
AI summary The document outlines key actions related to energy infrastructure, including advancing coal-to-gas conversions, conducting system stability studies for wind integration, and pursuing reinvestment in hydro and combustion facilities. Stakeholders provide input on timelines, cost assumptions, and grid service impacts.
Request / Directive Originator Status NS Power Comments Per IRP and GUO letter from NSUARB about pre-IRP NSUARB Complete Nova Scotia Power has continued to pursue these deliverables: opportunities as part of its operations. 6. Continue joi...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power has completed several tasks related to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and a letter from the NSUARB. These include joint dispatch efforts with Maritime Provinces, evaluating capacity requirements for Tufts Cove units, and identifying candidates for coal retirement following Lingan 2.
Nova Scotia Power IRP Final Report Appendix N Page 5 of 12 NS Power’s Response to IRP Report Directives and Suggestions 2018 FAM Audit Recommendation IX-1 Bates White Complete The Pre-IRP work confirmed via LOLP modeling that a PRM of 17-2...
AI summary Nova Scotia Power responded to the 2018 FAM Audit Recommendation IX-1 by confirming that a planning reserve margin (PRM) of 17-21% nameplate over firm peak is required to meet NPCC reliability standards. They used the UCAP methodology in the 2020 IRP to model capacity expansion and ensure reliability.
The findings of the pre-IRP capacity study were used for the Initial Portfolio Study capacity expansion models. NS Power then selected three scenarios (2.0C, 2.1C and 3.2C) for reliability assessment and determination of the appropriate PR...
AI summary The pre-IRP capacity study findings were used in the Initial Portfolio Study for capacity expansion models. NS Power evaluated three scenarios (2.0C, 2.1C, 3.2C) for reliability assessment and PRM determination. All scenarios met the target reliability criterion and LOLE metric, with excess capacity near or less than the lowest cost capacity resource.