Topic:"System Reliability" in M10569

1 List of Figures 2 3 Figure 1: Historical and Predicted Annual Net System Requirement ............................................ 8 4 Figure 2: Historical and Predicted Annual System Peak ....................................................

AI summary The text lists figures from a regulatory proceeding, covering historical and predicted system requirements, peak demand, heating/cooling degree days (HDD/CDD) trends, weather data, and forecasting methods. Key themes include system reliability, infrastructure planning, and weather impact analysis.

............................................ 67 16 Figure 44: Historical and Forecast Annual Small General Sales .................................................. 68 17 Figure 45: Historical and Forecast Annual General Demand Sales .........

AI summary The text lists figures related to historical and forecasted energy sales, demand, peak contributions, and system reliability metrics, including demand response, peak temperatures, and system/firm peak forecasts. No explicit arguments or claims are presented in the excerpt.

1 Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Net System Requirement and System Peak Year NSR (GWh) Growth (%) System Peak (MW) Growth (%) 2012 10,475 -12.0 1,882 -13.2 2013 11,194 6.9 2,033 8.0 2014 11,037 -1.4 2,118 4.2 2015 11,099 0.6 2,015 -4.9 20...

AI summary The table presents historical and projected Net System Requirement (NSR) and System Peak data from 2012 to 2032, showing fluctuating growth rates in energy demand and peak load, which informs infrastructure planning and system reliability considerations.

positive step toward 24 continuous improvement related to the Load Forecast. While NS Power committed 25 to incorporate numerous recommendations where appropriate, the Board directs NS 26 Power to undertake the agreed upon recommendations....

AI summary The Board directs NS Power to incorporate recommendations for improving the Load Forecast, including re-evaluating low design temperature assumptions and assessing peak-causing conditions. Intervenors recommended this change, which NS Power agreed to. The 2021 Load Forecast Report (M10109) and UARB Decision are referenced.

were evaluated and what was incorporated into the 23 forecast early in the process. 24 25 In accordance with the Board’s direction, NS Power revised and enhanced the 2022 Load 26 Forecast in the following manner: 27 28 • The peak design te...

AI summary NS Power revised the 2022 Load Forecast per the Board’s direction, incorporating historic temperature data, warming trends, population-weighted weather analysis, and summaries of Smart Grid/Demand Response projects. System peak accuracy was added to Appendix C, with references to Sections 4.2, 10, and other documentation.

nd is included in the Load Forecast. The group’s forecast 23 energy sales have been reduced to reflect only the reduced 2021 energy purchases from NS 24 Power under the BUTU tariff. DATE: April 29, 2022 Page 75 of 98 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL...

AI summary The document discusses the 2022 Load Forecast Report, highlighting energy sales reductions due to decreased purchases from NS Power under the BUTU tariff, as well as system losses and unbilled sales. System losses are forecast to remain between 6.0% and 7.0% over the 10-year period. The Net System Requirement (NSR) includes residential, commercial, and industrial sales, excluding self-generation and exports.

Modeled Res EV DR C&I Large DSM Firm Inter. System Peak Heat (MW) (MW) Elect. Cust. (MW) Peak Cust. Peak (MW) Peak (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) 2022 1,920 7 3 -0 10 99 -18 2021 144 2,165 2032 1,993 120 103 -37 193 112 -141 2342 152 2,532...

AI summary The document discusses system peak demand in Nova Scotia, highlighting the 2021 system peak of 1,968 MW and the factors influencing peak demand, such as temperature changes and weather conditions. It also provides modeled data for 2022 and 2032, including the impact of EV adoption and demand response programs.

1 Response IR-7: 2 3 (a) The Load Forecast is estimating annual system firm peak, incorporating an estimate of the 4 reliability contribution of Demand Response (DR) programs based on the Planning Reserve 5 Margin and Capacity Value Study1...

AI summary The response discusses NS Power's use of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) in capacity planning, emphasizing alignment with industry best practices and stakeholder input during the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). It clarifies that ELCC factors are applied to Demand Response (DR) programs to reflect their reliability contributions and are refined as data improves.

15 16 (e) Yes, NS Power views Electric Thermal Storage (ETS) as an effective backup for Air-Source 17 Heat Pump systems when ETS is sized appropriately to carry the heating load. 18 Date Filed: July 8, 2022 NSPI (E1) IR-9 Page 3 of 4 10 -...

AI summary NSPI confirms Electric Thermal Storage (ETS) can effectively back up air-source heat pumps when appropriately sized. However, it expresses uncertainty about hybrid systems combining heat pumps with fossil fuels in meeting 2050 Net Zero targets. The forecast assumes consistent weather and does not model unaccounted factors, deeming their 10-year impact unlikely.

se of solar power as an energy resource. 2014 South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2014-246-E, direct testimony generic proceeding on behalf of the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. Methods for cal...

AI summary The text outlines various regulatory proceedings involving the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, focusing on the calculation of dependable capacity credit for renewable resources, reserve margin requirements, and the adequacy of renewable energy consideration in integrated resource plans.

as supplemental heat, and gas heating 11 systems as supplemental heat, would have a different impact on load and would likely have a 12 different combination of system investment requirements. 13 14 Given that the 2022 Load Forecast indica...

AI summary The text discusses the impact of heating technologies on load forecasting and grid flexibility, emphasizing the need for peak load management in a net-zero grid. It references the 2022 Load Forecast and the RAP paper 'Heating Without the Hot Air,' which highlights principles for efficient and flexible heat decarbonization.

Page 6 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebuttal NON-CONFIDENTIAL

AI summary The document presents a rebuttal to the 2022 Load Forecast Report, challenging its assumptions or methodologies. Key focus areas include energy demand projections and system reliability considerations, though specific arguments are not detailed in the provided text.

.1.16 Recommendation 16: 30 31 “We ask NSPI to evaluate commercial heat use more fully as to 32 what is driving it and how the peak impacts could be moderated.” 33 DATE FILED: September 26, 2022 Page 14 of 25 2022 Load Forecast Report Rebu...

AI summary NS Power responds to recommendations regarding commercial heat use forecasting, peak load discrepancies, and 2032 peak sensitivity analysis. It attributes peak differences to weather adjustments, validates methodology using 2022 data, and cites collaboration with E1 and alignment with the IRP Action Plan.

forecasted that NSR will experience an average annual increase of 0.3 percent between 2023 and 2032. With respect to system peak, NS Power forecasts annual growth of 1.6 percent between 2023 and 2032. These forecasts result in a projected...

AI summary NS Power forecasts 0.3% annual NSR growth and 1.6% system peak growth from 2023-2032, projecting 5.7% higher NSR and 28.7% higher peak demand by 2032 compared to 2021. Table 1 compares forecasted vs actual energy and peak demand changes from 2017-2022, highlighting significant 2022 growth discrepancies.

mpacts on peak. Synapse asked that NS Power review its peak forecasting methodology and provide a peak sensitivity analysis as well as the assumptions and calculations used. NS Power Reply Submission In its Reply, NS Power addressed the co...

AI summary Synapse requested NS Power to review its peak forecasting methodology and provide sensitivity analyses. NS Power agreed to incorporate multi-hour weather data, refine electrification impact assessments, and evaluate hybrid demand response scenarios while integrating findings from recent studies and projects.

ect to the unresolved status of large infrastructure projects, NS Power is encouraged to maintain communications with those customers to ensure system adequacy. Yours very truly, Richard J. Melanson LL.B. Member Julia E. Clark, LL.B. Membe...

AI summary NS Power is encouraged to maintain customer communication regarding unresolved large infrastructure projects to ensure system adequacy. The document includes signatures from regulatory members and references to EV registration and rebate data sources, along with a document identifier.

r the differences from the 2021 22 forecast. 23 b. Please explain and quantify the factors behind the 0.1 percent growth rate. 24 25 Request IR-24: 26 Other Industrial (Section 7.3). 27 a. Please explain and quantify the specific reasons f...

AI summary The document outlines regulatory requests (IR-24 to IR-27) seeking explanations for forecast discrepancies, load changes, system losses, and net system requirements. It focuses on data validation, reliability of projections, and sector-specific load contributions from industrial, municipal, and other sectors.

ect to the unresolved status of large infrastructure projects, NS Power is encouraged to maintain communications with those customers to ensure system adequacy. Yours very truly, Richard J. Melanson LL.B. Member Julia E. Clark, LL.B. Membe...

AI summary NS Power is urged to maintain customer communication regarding unresolved large infrastructure projects to ensure system adequacy. The letter is signed by Richard J. Melanson and Julia E. Clark, with a copy to Board Counsel S. Bruce Outhouse and interested parties. URLs for EV registration and rebate data are included, along with document number 298717.