Topic:"System Reliability" in M11689

.................................................. 58 15 6.0 Commerical Sector ............................................................................................................ 64 16 6.1 Small General Service.......................

AI summary The text outlines a regulatory proceeding document's table of contents, detailing sections on commercial, industrial, and municipal sectors, system losses, net system requirements, peak demand, and sensitivity analysis. It structures rate classes and system performance metrics for regulatory review.

..................................................................................................... 82 16 Figure 57: Peak Regression Coefficients ...................................................................................... 84 1...

AI summary The text lists technical figures related to energy demand forecasting, peak load analysis, and system sensitivity. It includes historical data, forecasts, and components contributing to peak loads, with references to demand response (DR) and load research data. Topics focus on forecasting methodologies, load management, and system reliability.

the NSUARB initiated a paper hearing process to review the 2023 Load Forecast 11 Report. 1 The Consumer Advocate (CA), the Small Business Advocate (SBA), the 0F 12 Industrial Group (IG), EfficiencyOne (E1), and Eastward Energy (EE) registe...

AI summary The NSUARB reviewed NS Power’s 2023 Load Forecast Report through a paper hearing, with intervenors including the Consumer Advocate, Small Business Advocate, and EfficiencyOne. Synapse Energy Economics provided analysis. The Board directed NS Power to implement agreed-upon recommendations, including IRP outcomes, carbon emission model reviews, and historical load assessments.

customers to ensure system adequacy. 26 // 27 28 The Board expects NS Power to continue exploring all realistic scenarios 29 related to commercial hydrogen production and, where there is sufficient 30 data, incorporate them to the extent p...

AI summary The NSUARB directs NS Power to explore commercial hydrogen production scenarios in load forecasting and address the significant 2022 forecast variance (234 GWh) attributed to pandemic and heat pump impacts. The Board emphasizes revisiting unexplained variance and considering factors like cooling demand and home electrical upgrades in residential load projections.

51 23 24 25 (b) The load served by NS Power is expected to decrease in 2025 as the customers participating 26 in OATT have applied for BUTU service to enable third party supply. Date Filed: June 19, 2024 NSPI (Synapse) IR-29 Page 1 of 1 RE...

AI summary The document discusses load forecasts, noting that NS Power's load is expected to decrease in 2025 due to customers switching to BUTU service. It also provides information on system losses, which are higher in winter and typically range between 6 to 7 percent of net system requirement.

1, 2024 Page 9 1 timeline involved in implementing the recommendations from such a study, it would seem 2 that time would be of the essence. 3 Q: Does this failure to address the winter peak heating issue place customers at 4 risk? 5 A: Ye...

AI summary Failure to address winter peak heating risks customers with rising costs and system reliability challenges due to federal carbon policies pushing electric heat adoption. NS Power's load forecasts may not account for rapid shifts to electric heating, while policy constraints limit backup heating options for customers.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 5 “Views on TVA EE Modeling Approach,” presentation with Natalie Mims to Tennessee Valley Authority’s Evaluating Energy Efficiency in Utility Resource Planning Meeting, February 10, 2015. “The Cle...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC has presented on energy efficiency modeling, renewable energy reliability, carbon markets, solar capacity value, power plant procurement, resource adequacy, and energy transitions at various conferences and forums between 2015 and 2024.

John D. Wilson  Grid Strategies, LLC Page 7 including resource mix, sensitivity analysis, alternative supply and demand side options, cost escalation, uncertainty of nuclear and economic impact modeling. 2013 Georgia PSC Docket No. 36498,...

AI summary John D. Wilson of Grid Strategies, LLC provided expert testimony in multiple U.S. regulatory proceedings from 2013–2016, focusing on energy efficiency adequacy, renewable energy integration, and system reliability. Testimonies addressed Georgia Power’s integrated resource plans, South Carolina’s capacity needs, and Florida’s reserve margin requirements, often representing the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

d reply testimony on rulemaking to ensure reliable electric service in the event of an extreme weather event on behalf of the Small Business Utility Advocates. Modifications to

AI summary The text references a reply testimony on rulemaking aimed at ensuring reliable electric service during extreme weather events, submitted on behalf of the Small Business Utility Advocates. It mentions modifications to existing frameworks, though the specific changes are not detailed.

Hourly Real Time Pricing Pilot on behalf of the Small Business Utility Advocates. Rate design for real time pricing tariff. Marketing to small businesses. Evaluation plan. California PUC Docket R.20-08-020, direct and reply testimony with...

AI summary The text outlines regulatory activities involving the Small Business Utility Advocates (SBUA) and Nova Scotia Consumer Advocate, including rate design for real-time pricing and net energy metering (NEM) tariffs, testimony in California PUC dockets, and addressing risks in Nova Scotia Power’s Solar Garden Pilot Rate Rider. It highlights work on cost-of-service methods, rate allocation, and pilot program evaluations.

r Advocate. Reasonableness of biomass fuel costs. Shortfall in expected customer benefits from Maritime Link transmission project. Regional joint dispatch. Accounting issues related to coal supplies and wind farm tax credits. Impact of dem...

AI summary The text discusses biomass fuel cost reasonableness, shortfall in benefits from the Maritime Link project, regional dispatch accounting issues, and demand response impacts on fuel costs. It references Nova Scotia UARB Matters M11009 and M11017, along with Kentucky PSC Case 2022-00402, addressing fossil fuel unit retirements and regulatory processes for capital expenditures.

16. We ask NSPI to investigate what can be done with time-of-use rates and other measures to mitigate the peak load increases for all these components, especially for the C&I sectors. 17. NSPI should conduct an analysis of portfolio ELCC a...

AI summary The text outlines recommendations for NSPI to investigate time-of-use rates, analyze portfolio ELCC, evaluate technologies like thermal storage and heat pumps, quantify electrification impacts, develop scenarios for uncertain resource adoption, and conduct sensitivity analyses to mitigate projected peak load increases.

as well as customer specific forecasts for large customers. The process produces the Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast, Document: 316220 -2- which is the energy forecast for the province. The second method is the DSM adjustment. The DS...

AI summary NS Power's 2024 Load Forecast includes revisions to customer growth, adjusted energy usage post-2023 weather events, slower EV adoption, hybrid heating scenarios, and DSM initiatives. Forecasts show 0.19% annual NSR growth (2025-2034) and 1.4% average system peak increases, with long-term growth tempered by efficiency and solar adoption.

Forecast Report. Synapse Synapse noted NS Power’s continued improvement to the Load Forecast Report. However, Synapse also remarked on several aspects, suggesting revisions. These included: • modeling heat-pump-based hot water heating, exa...

AI summary Synapse recommends revisions to NS Power’s Load Forecast Report, emphasizing improved modeling of heat pumps, solar impacts, EV adoption, DSM adjustments, and peak forecasting methodology. Key areas include hybrid heating scenarios, electrification effects, and validating new home construction as a proxy for customer growth.

NS Power agreed to monitor several of the model’s inputs, including EV adoption, solar generation, battery storage deployment and bi-directional EV charging, and the associated load impacts for each. NS Power agreed to review pricing innov...

AI summary NS Power agreed to monitor EV adoption, solar generation, battery storage, and bi-directional EV charging impacts. It will review pricing innovations, update DSM Program savings, and analyze demand response capacity value. NS Power disagreed with removing TVP benefits from peak forecasts and adding certain weather metrics to the SAE model, but agreed to study temperature and cloud cover trends.

Document: 313458 Date Filed: 05/28/24 UARB Page 6 1 Request IR-21: 2 Section 6.0 examines the Commercial Sector and indicates that a detailed breakdown of the two 3 commercial SAE models are in Attachments 6 and 7. Page 65 explains that th...

AI summary The document contains five requests (IR-21 to IR-25) questioning NS Power's modeling assumptions, including outdated economic data, NSR trends, RTR impact, heating load forecasts, and data discrepancies. Requests focus on model accuracy, forecasting methodology, and alignment with current economic and energy trends.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 8 of 24 1 e. The SGNS project found average evening peak reductions of 0.24 kW/vehicle from one 2 EV pilot program participant cohort and 0.65 kW/vehicle from another cohort. NSPI states 3 that...

AI summary The text includes questions to NSPI about EV pilot program impacts on peak load, managed charging strategies, time-of-use tariffs, and assumptions regarding EV charging management percentages. It seeks clarification on SGNS project findings, peak load impact estimates, and the relevance of these findings to winter peak and different vehicle types.

tify the specific reasons for the differences from the previous 33 forecast. 34 b. Please explain why the sales forecast appears to increase in its growth rate after about 35 2026. 36 Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 15 of 24 1...

AI summary The document outlines requests for clarification on forecast discrepancies, industrial load changes, municipal energy needs, system losses, and net system requirements from Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NSPI), emphasizing the need for detailed explanations and data verification.

Date Filed: May 29, 2024 Synapse (NSPI) Page 22 of 24 1 Electric Vehicles (Section 4.4, p. 40): 2 a. Please provide the percent of all vehicle sales, and electric vehicles as a percent of total 3 vehicle stock for each year through 2050. 4...

AI summary The document contains several requests for information related to electric vehicle adoption, peak load forecasting, municipal load differences, end-use peak shares, and forecast sensitivities. These requests are part of an ongoing regulatory proceeding involving Nova Scotia Power Incorporated.

re. Given the impending 2030 deadline, it is essential that the Evergreen 26 IRP process continue uninterrupted, and the Evergreen IRP Updated Action Plan and Roadmap 27 be diligently executed.” (p. 5) 28 29 Please describe the steps that...

AI summary The text requests NS Power to detail steps taken to assess the Hybrid Peak Mitigation electrification profile, address the multi-stakeholder study process, and identify obstacles. It also asks to confirm the 1.6 kW/vehicle sensitivity used in the 2024 load forecast and provide system-coincident unmanaged peak impact data for 2023.

dentifying the sources of 40 data for the relevant factors, including but not limited to the number of customers 41 connected, panel sizes, and special loads such as EVs. 42 Date Filed: May 29, 2024 CA (NS Power) Page 5 of 6 1 (d) Are tran...

AI summary The text outlines regulatory inquiries into NSP's data practices for transformer sizing, time-varying pricing (TVP) impact assessments, and AMI technology implementation timelines. Requests focus on quantifying TVP's system peak reduction, forecasting AMI benefits, and analyzing peak demand patterns from winter 2023-2024.

as well as customer specific forecasts for large customers. The process produces the Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast, Document: 316220 -2- which is the energy forecast for the province. The second method is the DSM adjustment. The DS...

AI summary NS Power updated the 2024 Load Forecast with revisions to customer growth, weather adjustments, EV adoption rates, hybrid heating scenarios, and DSM program impacts. Forecasts show increased near-term electricity consumption but reduced demand from slower EV adoption. Long-term NSR growth is expected to be offset by DSM initiatives and solar installations, with a 0.19% annual NSR increase projected between 2025-2034.

ar- term growth of system peak is attributed to increased electrification of heating, whereas the long- term growth has been reduced due to lower EV sales and the adoption of hybrid heating scenarios. In the 2034 forecast, NSR is 5.1% (564...

AI summary The document analyzes NS Power's load forecasting discrepancies, noting short-term peak demand growth from heating electrification but long-term reductions due to lower EV sales and hybrid heating adoption. Forecasts for 2034 show 5.1% higher NSR and 11.1% higher system peak than 2023 actuals. The Board has raised concerns about forecasting accuracy and consistency, referencing past decisions like M11108.