Topic:"System Reliability" in M12861

LIST OF FIGURES 1 Figure 1: Historical and Predicted Annual Net System Requirement ............................................ 9 2 Figure 2: Historical and Predicted Annual System Peak ........................................................

AI summary The document lists figures related to historical and projected energy demand, system peak loads, heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDD), and customer load trends, providing data for analysis in a regulatory proceeding.

.......................................................................... 81 16 Figure 58: Forecast Components .................................................................................................. 82 17 Figure 59: Average pea...

AI summary The text lists figures related to forecasting components, peak demand analysis, regression models, and demand response. It includes visual representations of forecasted vs. actual peaks, temperature records, peak normalization models, and end-use demand breakdowns, likely supporting regulatory analysis of energy system reliability and efficiency measures.

1 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 3 In accordance with the Nova Scotia Wholesale Electricity and Renewable to Retail Market Rules, 4 Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power, the Company) is required to provide the Nova Scotia 5 Energy Board (NSEB,...

AI summary Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) is required to submit annual 10-year energy and demand forecasts to the Nova Scotia Energy Board (NSEB). The Independent Electrical System Operator Nova Scotia (IESO-NS), established under the Energy Reform (2024) Act, will oversee electricity demand forecasting. The 2026 Load Forecast considers factors like weather, economic indicators, and energy efficiency programs, acknowledging inherent uncertainties.

M) and Renewable to Retail (RTR) migration offsetting sales. 14 Annual historic and forecast NSR are shown below in Figure 1. 15 16 Figure 1: Historical and Predicted Annual Net System Requirement Net System Requirement 15,000 14,000 13,00...

AI summary NS Power forecasts increasing system peak demand from 2026 to 2036, driven by customer growth, electrification, and EV adoption, offset by DSM and DR programs. The 2026 forecast adjusts for a record peak in January 2026, with the 2025-2026 forecast difference narrowing by 2036.

istoric and forecast 14 periods. 15 DATE: May 15, 2026 Page 10 of 105 REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) 2026 Load Forecast Report REDACTED 1 Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Net System Requirement and System Peak Year NSR (GWh) Gr...

AI summary The 2026 Load Forecast Report presents historic and projected Net System Requirement (NSR) and System Peak data from 2016 to 2036, showing fluctuating growth trends in energy demand and peak load. The data informs resource planning and system reliability considerations for Nova Scotia's electricity sector.

increase in the energy purchases under the BUTU Tariff (expected to 23 increase from around 25 GWh to 79 GWh). 24 25 Because NS Power is required to provide back-up capacity, including reserve margin, to the 26 municipal electric utilities...

AI summary The text discusses an increase in energy purchases under the BUTU Tariff, from 25 GWh to 79 GWh, due to NS Power's obligation to provide backup capacity to municipal electric utilities. It also mentions system losses and unbilled sales, with system losses forecasted to remain between 6.0% and 7.0% over the next 10 years.

REDACTED (CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION REMOVED) REDACTED 2026 Load Forecast Report Appendix C Page 8 of 9 Figure C6: System Peak Forecast Accuracy System Peak Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast For...

AI summary The document presents a table showing the accuracy of system peak forecasts issued in various years from 2015 to 2024, with forecasted values for each year up to 2025. The table highlights discrepancies between forecasted and actual system peak values over time.

Peak Year Peak Forecast Forecast Current ForeHistoric PeaPrevious FoFirm Peak Previous ForeHistoric WN Firm Peak System Peak 2004 2237.9 2238 2022 Jan Pe 2238 1848 2900 2005 2143.0 2143 2143 1745 2006 2085.0 2085 2085 1684 2007 2154.4 2154...

AI summary The document presents historical and forecasted peak demand data for the electricity system, including values for various years from 2004 to 2013. It includes firm peak demand, previous forecasts, and historic peak values. The data shows fluctuations in peak demand over time, with some years showing higher demand and others lower.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 Request IR-1: 2 3 Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Net System Requirement and System Peak. 4 5 (a) The Net System Requirement (NSR) forecast percentage change in 2027 is negative. 6 Aside from Renewable to Retail sales, w...

AI summary The document includes a request (IR-1) asking Nova Scotia Power (NS Power) to explain the factors leading to a decline in Net System Requirement (NSR) in 2027, the reasons for the projected NSR increase in 2031 and 2033, and why the system peak forecast in 2025 underestimated the peak for 2028 to 2032. A response begins addressing the first part of the request.

ategies LLC and Brattle Group, with Rob Gramlich, Richard Seide, Yorgos Raskovic, J. Michael Hagerty, Joe DeLosa III, and Johannes Pfeifenberger, for submission in FERC Docket No. AD24-9, August 2024. "Independent Transmission Construction...

AI summary The text lists various reports and studies prepared by Grid Strategies LLC and other entities, including analyses on power demand forecasts, transmission construction monitoring, and reliability assessments, submitted to different organizations and regulatory bodies.

tion of energy efficiency in Georgia Power's 2013 integrated resource plan, including cost effectiveness, rate and bill impacts, and lost revenues, economics of fuel switching and renewable resources. South Carolina PSC Docket No. 2013-392...

AI summary The text discusses energy efficiency in Georgia Power's 2013 integrated resource plan, including cost effectiveness, rate and bill impacts, and the economics of fuel switching and renewable resources. It also references a South Carolina PSC docket involving testimony on capacity, energy efficiency, renewable energy alternatives, and the use of solar power.

The table shows the build-up from the modeled peak to the system peak. The modeled peak captures the residential, commercial, small and medium industrial, and unmetered classes plus losses; the growth-program adjustments, large-customer an...

AI summary The document discusses the increase in system peak demand from 2,484 MW in 2026 to 2,765 MW in 2036, with further increases under the maximum non-coincident EV peak case. Factors contributing to this increase include residential, commercial, and industrial demand, as well as DSM and large-customer contributions.

May 15, 2026 Ms. Crystal Henwood Regulatory Affairs Officer/Clerk Nova Scotia Energy Board 1601 Lower Water Street, 3rd Floor P.O. Box 1692, Unit “M” Halifax, NS B3J 3S3 Re: 2026 Load Forecast and 10 Year System Outlook Reports – IESO Nova...

AI summary The letter discusses the transition of responsibility for preparing the 2026 Load Forecast and 10 Year System Outlook (10YSO) reports from Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NS Power) to the newly established Independent Energy System Operator of Nova Scotia (IESO Nova Scotia), noting upcoming submission deadlines and implications for continued ownership of these filing requirements.

a have been in discussion on the preparation and filing of the Load Forecast and 10YSO reports in the near term, given their impending submissions on May 15th and June 30th of this year, respectively. With respect to the Load Forecast repo...

AI summary IESO Nova Scotia and NS Power are collaborating on Load Forecast and 10YSO report submissions, with NS Power handling the Load Forecast for 2026 and IESO taking over the 10YSO report to avoid duplication. Submissions are due May 15 and June 30, respectively, with IESO seeking NSEB input.

12 Request IR-08: - 13 (a) Please confirm that E1's demand response (DR) programs are modelled as reductions to 14 firm peak only, and that they are excluded from the system peak forecast (as stated on 15 page 95 of the 2026 Load Forecast...

AI summary The request questions how E1's demand response (DR) programs are modeled as firm peak reductions versus hybrid heating's system peak reductions, querying rationale for differential treatment, reliability value attribution, and trigger event impacts on modeling decisions.

20 Request IR-2: 21 Refer to M12861, Exhibit N-1, the Report, Section 4.5.2, Hybrid Heating, Section 4.5.4, Electric 22 Vehicles, and respond to the following: 23 24 a) The forecast models hybrid heating at 50% participation (approximately...

AI summary The request asks whether the existing transmission and distribution system can accommodate higher penetration of hybrid heat pumps and managed EV charging, and whether such flexible loads would require less infrastructure reinforcement compared to unmanaged loads, citing E3 findings on peak reduction potential.