N-18Response to Undertakings - Redacted
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In Scope - A common modeling approach to study the North American grid independently and transparently - Evaluation of the impact of extreme weather events on hourly energy adequacy using the calculated current transfer capability and 10-y...
AI summary The scope includes modeling the North American grid, evaluating impacts of extreme weather on energy adequacy, identifying transfer capability to address energy deficits, and consulting with industry, with reliability as the sole focus.
Executive Summary In many cases, international ties with the United States have higher transfer capability than inter-provincial ties due to physical proximity and/or to gain access to larger markets. As a result of the geographic distance...
AI summary International energy transfers between the U.S. and Canada often have higher transfer capability due to proximity and access to larger markets. However, geographic distances reduce the impact of adverse conditions in one province on neighboring provinces. Northern regions rely on cross-border energy transfers for reliability, especially during extreme weather and forced outages.
Transfer Capability Analysis The transfer capability analysis results are provided beginning in [Chapter 2](#page-72-0) . The current transfer capability analysis between each pair of neighboring TPRs focused on two different base cases, [...
AI summary The document discusses the transfer capability analysis between neighboring TPRs for 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter, highlighting results from figures and chapters. It clarifies that transfer capabilities differ from path ratings and notes that the study did not use path-based calculations or consider normally open ties.
Key Findings–Transfer Analysis - Transfer capability varies seasonally and under different system conditions that limit transmission loading; it cannot be represented by a single number. - Transfer capability is highly dependent on coordin...
AI summary The document discusses the variability of transfer capability across different seasons and system conditions, emphasizing that it cannot be represented by a single number. Transfer capability is influenced by factors such as phase angle regulators, load impacts, and interregional differences. The study uses base cases to simulate system behavior and highlights that results depend on assumptions and conditions, with potential for higher transfer capabilities under different scenarios.
Identified Transfer Capability Additions in the Context of Reliability This study identified additions to transfer capability that could mitigate potential grid reliability risks under the most challenging conditions. These additions will...
AI summary This study identifies transfer capability additions that could mitigate grid reliability risks under extreme conditions. It evaluates the impact of these additions on energy adequacy and reserve optimization, focusing solely on reliability. The analysis uses historical weather data applied to 2033 load and resource conditions and excludes economic modeling. The findings suggest potential improvements to energy adequacy through enhanced transfer capabilities.
er the studied extreme conditions throughout Canada. [20](#page-61-1) [Figure ES.4](#page-61-2) 14 GW of additional transfer capability could improve energy adequacy under extreme conditions. shows the existing and potential[21](#page-61-3...
AI summary The document discusses energy deficiency during extreme cold weather in Québec, identifying a 10 GW energy deficiency that could be addressed with 14 GW of additional transfer capability. This analysis is part of a broader Canadian study conducted by NERC in collaboration with regional entities.
Study Scope The transfer capability analysis studied forecasted 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter conditions. [26](#page-64-4) This analysis produced a set of transfer capability limits between neighboring TPRs. More information is provided i...
AI summary The study analyzed transfer capability limits between TPRs under 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter conditions, using energy margin analysis to identify TPRs with energy deficiencies. The analysis focused on identifying potential transfer capability additions to mitigate these deficiencies, while excluding probabilistic resource adequacy analysis and local resource additions.
Transfer Capability Each Interconnection consists of a network of transmission lines for redundancy, avoiding reliance on a single path. Electricity transfers flow over parallel paths, introducing a variety of operating constraints. Conseq...
AI summary Transfer capability refers to the ability of interconnected electric systems to reliably move power between areas. It is measured in megawatts (MW) and involves complex planning considerations, as increasing transfer capability may require modifications to multiple transmission facilities rather than a single addition.
the transfer capability is determined based on internal limitations, the internal flows are not adjusted by re-dispatching resources within the TPR to optimize and enable a higher transfer capability. Finally, the Canadian Analysis represe...
AI summary The document discusses the determination of transfer capability based on internal limitations and the lack of re-dispatching to optimize it. It highlights that the Canadian Analysis is a point-in-time study using synchronized data and suggests the need for ongoing energy margin analysis to account for future changes in resources and transmission plans.
Chapter 2: Transfer Capability Analysis Process This section details the study design, tools, case development, and analysis parameters for calculating current transfer capability. The study details were reviewed by various industry groups...
AI summary Chapter 2 outlines the process for analyzing transfer capability, including study design, tools, case development, and analysis parameters. The study details were reviewed by industry groups such as the Advisory Group and technical committees from Regional Entities.
Modeling of Transfer Participation Transfers were simulated by scaling up the available generation in the source TPR in proportion to each unit's remaining availability, namely the difference between maximum generating capacity (PMAX) and...
AI summary The document describes a method for simulating transfers between transmission planning regions (TPRs) by adjusting generation levels based on remaining availability and enforcing thermal limits. If no transfer limits are reached, the simulation continues without enforcing the source TPR's maximum generation capacity. Invalid limits, such as overloads, are ignored.
Chapter 3: Transfer Capability Study Results This chapter provides the transfer capability results for each interface. An additional section shows the study results for the total import interfaces. TTC results are highly dependent on the p...
AI summary This chapter presents transfer capability study results for each interface, noting that results depend on operating conditions such as dispatch, topology, load patterns, and facility ratings. The study did not aim to optimize these conditions, and actual transfer capability may vary. Figures 3.1 and 3.2 illustrate summer and winter transfer capabilities for 2024.
Special Information: dc-only interface Interface Direction 2024 Summer 2024/25 Winter Québec -> Ontario 1,250 MW 1,250 MW Ontario -> Québec 1,250 MW 1,250 MW 42 Transfer capability values listed do not include the ability to switch generat...
AI summary The document provides transfer capability values for the Québec-Ontario interconnection during the 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter periods, noting that these values do not include the ability to switch generating stations between interconnections. It also references a section discussing transfer capabilities between Québec and New York.
Interface Direction 2024 Summer 2024/25 Winter New Brunswick -> New England 1,127 MW 1,265 MW New England -> New Brunswick MW45 550 MW46 550 44 Transfer capability values listed do not include the ability to switch radial loads between Int...
AI summary The document presents transfer capability values between New Brunswick and New England for the 2024 summer and 2024/25 winter, with notes indicating that these values do not include the ability to switch radial loads between interconnections and that some values are stability limitations. The section also introduces a discussion on transfer capability between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
ERO Enterprise staff analyzed an additional set of transfers into each TPR for the Canadian Analysis. These total import interfaces account for the simultaneous transfer capability into a TPR from all its neighbors. In instances where the...
AI summary ERO Enterprise staff analyzed transfers into each TPR for the Canadian Analysis, considering simultaneous transfer capabilities from all neighbors. The highest neighbor-to-neighbor results were reported when total import interface transfer capability was lower, to avoid understating total import capability. DC-only interfaces are excluded from these definitions.
Interface Direction 2024 Summer 2024/25 Winter Into Ontario TTC59 0 MW 0 MW dc-only interfaces 5,217 MW 5,248 MW Total of TTC and dc-only interfaces 5,217 MW 5,248 MW Percentage of Peak Load 21% 13% 55 Transfer capability values listed do...
AI summary The text presents data on transfer capability values for electrical interfaces between Ontario and other regions, including Québec and Manitoba, during specific seasons. It notes that these values do not account for generating station switching between interconnections and highlights asynchronous operation by Québec.
Interface Direction 2024 Summer 2024/25 Winter Into Nova Scotia TTC MW62 170 MW63 100 Percentage of Peak Load 13% 5% 60 This value is a stability limitation. 61 This value is a stability limitation. 62 This value is a stability limitation....
AI summary The document provides data on interface directions and percentages of peak load for the 2024 Summer and 2024/25 Winter periods, with notes indicating that certain values are stability limitations. It also introduces Chapter 4, which discusses transfer capability additions inputs.
Chapter 5: Transfer Capability Additions Process Using the multi-year, hourly, correlated, time-synchronized dataset for load, wind, solar, and thermal resource availability described in [Chapter 1](#page-89-6) , the transfer capability ad...
AI summary Chapter 5 outlines a six-step data-driven process for identifying and quantifying transfer capability additions to improve energy adequacy. The process uses multi-year, hourly data on load, wind, solar, and thermal resources to identify resource deficiencies and allocate additional transfer capability where needed, considering geographic and time zone diversity.
Step 4: Allocate Additional Transfer Capability Step 4 focuses on programmatically allocating transfer capability increases to constrained interfaces to address the Maximum Resource Deficiencies (identified in Step 2) using the scarcity we...
AI summary Step 4 involves allocating additional transfer capability increases to constrained interfaces based on scarcity weighting factors, prioritizing neighboring TPRs with surplus energy. An example shows Québec's maximum resource deficiency being partially addressed by allocating 33.3% of the deficiency to various regions.
Interface Weight (%) Addition (MW) Ontario to Québec 23% 785 New York to Québec 30% 1,045 New England to Québec 27% 941 New Brunswick to Québec 20% 682 Total 100% 3,454 Figure 5.5: Québec Iteration 1 Allocation of Additional Transfer Capab...
AI summary Figure 5.5 illustrates the allocation of additional transfer capability from various regions to Québec in the 2033 case. The table shows the percentage weight and additional megawatts (MW) allocated from Ontario, New York, New England, and New Brunswick to Québec.
Step 5: Iterate Until Resource Deficiencies Are Resolved Step 5 employs an iterative approach to incremental additions to transfer capability until all resource deficiencies are mitigated (if possible). The modeling method employed in Step...
AI summary Step 5 uses an iterative method to increase transfer capability in constrained interfaces until resource deficiencies are resolved. The process involves repeating energy margin analysis with incremental additions, and the impact of each addition is evaluated. After the first iteration, the maximum resource deficiency decreased significantly, and the second iteration allocated additional transfer capability based on scarcity weighting factors.
Interface Weight (%) Addition (MW) Ontario to Québec 28% 984 New York to Québec 50% 1,711 New England to Québec 21% 710 New Brunswick to Québec 1% 50 Total 100% 3,454 Figure 5.7: Québec Iteration 3 Allocation of Additional Transfer Capabil...
AI summary The document presents a table illustrating the allocation of additional transfer capability from various regions to Québec in the 2033 case, including percentages and megawatts for each interface. It also references Figure 5.7 and Step 6: Finalize Transfer Capability Additions.
Criteria The following criteria[75](#page-103-2) were applied when finalizing transfer capability additions: - Additions were made to maintain a 3% minimum margin level[76](#page-103-3) if possible. - Where practical, all resource deficien...
AI summary The criteria for adding transfer capability focus on maintaining a 3% minimum margin level, mitigating resource deficiency hours above 300 MW, and ensuring additions are rounded to the nearest 100 MW. These additions aim to improve reliability by reducing resource deficiency, with specific thresholds for effectiveness.
Table 5.3: Finalizing Transfer Capability Additions to Québec (2033 Case) Iteration Transfer Capability Additions (MW) Max Resource Deficiency (MW) New York New England New Brunswick Base Ontario 10,374 Iteration 1 1,045 941 785 682 7,603...
AI summary Table 5.3 outlines the process of finalizing transfer capability additions to Québec for the 2033 case. It shows the iterations of transfer capability additions from various regions and the corresponding max resource deficiency. The table also indicates that Iteration 3 was prorated for TPRs where the remaining resource deficiency was less than the iteration size.
As a result of the above analysis, transfer capability additions that could mitigate potential energy deficiencies were identified for five TPRs, summarized in Table 6.7 , after following the six-step process described in Chapter 5 . The t...
AI summary The analysis identified transfer capability additions in five TPRs to mitigate energy deficiencies, ordered by the number of resource deficiency hours. Additional TPR-specific details are in Chapter 8, and alternative transfer capability additions may also be effective.
Table 6.7: Transfer Capability Additions Detail Transmission Planning Region Weather Years (WY) / Events Resource Deficiency Hours Maximum Deficiency (MW) Additional Transfer Capability (MW) Interface Additions (MW) Nova Scotia All 12 weat...
AI summary Table 6.7 outlines the transfer capability additions detail for various regions, including Nova Scotia, Québec, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Ontario. It provides data on weather years, resource deficiency hours, maximum deficiency in MW, additional transfer capability in MW, and interface additions in MW for each region.
Other Key Insights This section provides an in-depth analysis of the critical insights and conclusions drawn from the Canadian Analysis. These observations highlight several key topics essential for understanding the role of transfer capab...
AI summary This section discusses key insights on transfer capability, including multiplier effects, the relationship between generation and transmission planning, and benefits across interconnections. These insights are crucial for understanding how transfer capability can mitigate resource deficiencies.
Multiplier Effects A key finding of the study is that increasing transfer capability can, at times, reduce the maximum resource deficiency by more than the transfer capability addition. For instance, a 1,000 MW increase in transfer capabil...
AI summary The study highlights that increasing transfer capability can significantly reduce resource deficiencies, sometimes by more than the amount of added transfer capability. This is achieved through storage optimization, shortened deficiency windows, and interactive effects across transmission planning regions.
Chapter 7: Sensitivity Analysis In addition to the 2024 and 2033 cases discussed in the previous sections, a series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of varying specific assumptions on the overall results. These...
AI summary This chapter discusses sensitivity analyses conducted to evaluate the impact of varying assumptions on resource deficiencies and the need for increased transfer capability. The analyses aim to isolate individual factors and quantify their influence on study outcomes, providing insights for future planning.
6% Minimum Margin Level Sensitivity In this sensitivity analysis, the minimum margin level was increased from 3% to 6%, effectively reducing the surplus energy in all TPRs simultaneously. This adjustment increased the size, frequency, and...
AI summary This sensitivity analysis increases the minimum margin level from 3% to 6%, leading to greater resource deficiencies in six TPRs. The adjustment affects the size, frequency, and duration of deficiencies, as well as the number of TPRs impacted and the magnitude of transfer additions evaluated.
Transfer Capability Summary Section - Current summer and winter transfer capability columns include each of the interface names importing to the TPR summarized along with the summer and winter transfer capability quantified in the transfer...
AI summary The Transfer Capability Summary Section outlines how summer and winter transfer capability is calculated, including interface names, additions from simulations, and total import interface limits. It excludes dc-only interfaces from the total import limit and provides values in MW and as a percentage of the TPR's 2033 peak demand.
Harmonizing Path Limits and Transfer Capability Calculations As noted earlier in the report, many entities use path limits, some of which may differ significantly from the transfer capability results included in this report. While each is...
AI summary The document discusses the discrepancy between path limits and transfer capability results used by various entities, noting that while both methods are valid, their coexistence may cause confusion. The team suggests further discussions to optimize future continent-wide studies.
Alberta Table D.1: Finalizing Transfer Capability Additions to Alberta Iteration Transfer Capability Additions (MW) Max Resource Deficiency (MW) British Columbia Wasatch Front Saskatchewan Base 764 Iteration 1 15 43 197 510 Iteration 2 21...
AI summary The document presents a table detailing the iterations of transfer capability additions to Alberta, including adjustments made during each iteration and the final rounding process to meet a minimum addition size of 300 MW. Alternate allocations were found to be effective in addressing identified deficiencies.
Saskatchewan Table D.2: Finalizing Transfer Capability Additions to Saskatchewan Iteration Max Resource Deficiency (MW) Alberta Wasatch Front SPP North MISO West Manitoba Base 543 Iteration 1 33 36 36 48 28 353 Iteration 2 29 34 37 55 26 1...
AI summary The document presents a table and text discussing the process of finalizing transfer capability additions to Saskatchewan through multiple iterations. The iterations show reductions in resource deficiencies, with the final iteration reaching zero. The process involved proration and reallocation of small additions to meet a minimum threshold of 300 MW.
Ontario Table D.3: Finalizing Transfer Capability Additions to Ontario Iteration Max Resource Deficiency (MW) Manitoba MISO West MISO East PJM East New York Québec Base 3,083 Iteration 1 169 207 0 469 32 150 619 Iteration 2 86 141 0 316 14...
AI summary The table details the process of finalizing transfer capability additions to Ontario through two iterations, with adjustments made to address resource deficiencies. The final rounding step reallocated small additions to meet a minimum size requirement of 300 MW.
Nova Scotia Table D.5: Finalizing Transfer Capability Additions to Nova Scotia Iteration Transfer Capability Additions (MW) Max Resource Deficiency (MW) New Brunswick Base 582 Iteration 1 194 438 Iteration 2 194 85 Iteration 3 85 0 Total 4...
AI summary The table outlines the process of finalizing transfer capability additions to Nova Scotia, showing iterations with corresponding transfer capability additions and maximum resource deficiencies. The size of Iteration 3 was prorated based on the maximum remaining deficiency.