NSPI files responses to multi-party information requests on its 2024 Load Forecast Report, revealing key assumptions on heat pump saturation, EV charging, Renewable to Retail load shifts, and time-varying pricing impacts.

M11689 · Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) - 2024 Load Forecast Report

AI summary

Nova Scotia Power Inc confirms that projected Net System Requirement declines in 2025–2026 are primarily driven by customer migration to the Licensed Retail Supplier under the Renewable Energy Renewable to Retail program and a shift of municipal load to third-party supply, not underlying demand weakness.
The forecast assumes near-universal Heat Pumps adoption (100% saturation by 2050) based on federal and provincial net-zero targets, with approximately 20,000–21,000 residential installations per year in the near term; actual 2023 installations of 20,874 aligned closely with the prior year's forecast.
Ev Charging Control peak impact is modelled at 0.9 kW/vehicle (managed charging basis, 70% managed/30% unmanaged), based on E3 estimates rather than Smart Grid Nova Scotia pilot data, with province-wide extrapolation still requiring a larger customer data pool.
Time Varying Pricing (TOU and CPP) peak reduction forecasts reference Figure 56 of the report; NS Power expects the full 35 MW of Advanced Metering Infrastructure-related peak savings to be realized by 2028–2029, with stakeholder engagement ongoing to set the longer-term TVP deployment plan.
Commercial and industrial Strategic Electrification forecasts were revised downward from the 2023 report after a review of past forecasts against actuals showed prior project-completion estimates were too optimistic; the Forecasting Methodology also retains a COVID-adjustment variable for commercial sales given continued flat energy sales through 2023.

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What was filed

Documents filed on this day

N-2 NSPI (CA) RIR-1 to RIR-9 exhibits
N-4 NSPI (NSUARB) RIR-1 to RIR-26 exhibits
N-5 NSPI (SBA) RIR-1 to RIR-10 exhibits
N-6 NSPI (Synapse) RIR-1 to RIR-54 - Redacted exhibits
N-6(C) NSPI (Synapse) RIR-1 to RIR-54 - Confidential exhibits
N-6(C)-(i) Excel Attachment - Synapse IR-45 Att 3 - Confidential exhibits
N-6-(i) Multiple Excel Attachments - Synapse exhibits